Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight.
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Key developments
China’s emissions flat in Q3
Q3 ANALYSIS: Citing official and commercial data, analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that China’s emissions “stayed at, or just below, last year’s levels” in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024. The analysis explained that rapid electricity demand growth caused a coal-power rebound, but this was offset by falling demand for oil, steel and cement, along with weak consumer spending due to the sluggish economy. After a rise in Q1 and a decrease in Q2, the latest trends mean China’s overall emissions in 2024 would fall if there is a drop of at least 2% in the final quarter, the analysis found. It said this looked likely, but that recent economic stimulus creates uncertainty around the outlook. It added that, either way, China will “remain off track against its 2025 ‘carbon intensity’ target [energy consumption per unit of GDP], which requires emissions cuts of at least 2% in 2024 and 2025, after rapid rises in 2020-23”.
MISSING TARGETS?: Official data reported by state news agency Xinhua also hinted that China may fail to meet its “energy intensity” target, with China’s electricity consumption growing 7.9%, faster than the GDP growth rate of 4.8% so far this year. Meanwhile, China’s top planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, continues to prepare for the switch from “dual control” of energy – covering energy use and energy intensity –to “dual control” of emissions, issuing a new work plan on establishing a “national-level and provincial-level carbon reporting system” by 2025, said China News. (Read more about the switch to “dual control” of emissions in a previous China Briefing.)
EU’s EV tariffs entered into force
STEEP TARIFFS: The EU’s new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) kicked in on 30 October, after talks between Brussels and Beijing failed to find an amicable solution to the months-long trade dispute, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported. The final duty rates for the next five years were confirmed at between 7.8% and 35.3% – on top of a baseline 10% that applies to all EV imports – depending on whether the relevant firm is deemed to have cooperated with the EU probe, said the newspaper. (Read more in Carbon Brief’s Q&A on the global “trade war” over China’s booming EV industry.)
REACTIONS: The Associated Press quoted European Commission executive vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis defending the move: “We’re standing up for fair market practices and for the European industrial base. In parallel, we remain open to a possible alternative solution that would be effective in addressing the problems identified and (World Trade Organization)-compatible.” The Chinese government said it has “repeatedly pointed out” that the EU’s move was “unreasonable and non-compliant”, adding that it did “not agree with or accept the ruling”, according to Xinhua. China has “filed a complaint” with the WTO, said business news outlet Yicai.
Steel ‘overcapacity’ persisted
STEEL SLOWDOWN: The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed China’s steel sector is among sectors “bearing the brunt of the nation’s economic slowdown”, reported Bloomberg. The outlet said the steel industry had seen cumulative losses of 34bn yuan ($5bn) in the first nine months of the year, while the oil sector saw losses of 32bn yuan ($4.5bn). Xinyi Shen, China team lead at the CREA, said in a LinkedIn post that steel sector losses continued in the third quarter despite a “significant production cut”. The losses illustrated “persistent structural overcapacity” in the sector, Shen wrote. With global markets shifting towards “greener and more efficient production practices, China’s steel industry must adapt and innovate for sustainable growth”, she added.
STEEL RETROFITS: Meanwhile, more than 140 steel enterprises, whose steelmaking capacity exceeded 620m tonnes, completed “ultra-low emission retrofitting” over the period January to August 2024, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), state broadcaster CCTV reported. It added that the CISA had set new standards for “low-carbon emission steel” and said that deployment of “high-grade steel materials” can cut carbon dioxide emissions by 1.35bn tonnes (GtCO2) by 2030.
STEEL RECYCLING: Meanwhile, China launched a state-owned resources recycling company that “risks weighing down demand for metals, reported Bloomberg. China Resources Recycling Group will recycle steel scrap, as well as batteries and plastics, among other materials, the outlet said. The initiative has support from president Xi Jinping, said state news agency Xinhua. State-run newspaper China Daily anticipated the company would recycle 260m tonnes of scrap steel and iron annually. A recent action plan for the manufacturing industry by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also set a goal for recycling 62% of “bulk industrial solid waste” by 2030, with 20% of “short-process steelmaking” relying on recycling, reported CCTV. The plan also said that, by 2030, the output of “green factories” will account for more than 40% of the total manufacturing value, added the state broadcaster. Lauri Myllyvirta, author of the above-mentioned emissions analysis for Carbon Brief, described the move as “very important” on LinkedIn, adding that steel was China’s second-largest emitting sector and had the potential, via increased recycling and other measures, to cut its emissions by “by a third or more over the next decade”.
Xi told BRICS to advance ‘low-carbon transformation’
KAZAN DECLARATION: The BRICS group of nations that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – a bloc representing around 37% of global GDP and 42% of greenhouse gas emissions – issued a joint statement “reiterat[ing] that the objectives, principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), its Kyoto Protocol and its Paris Agreement…must be honoured”, state news agency Xinhua reported. The agreement added that such considerations must include “its principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities”. In language likely directed towards the EU’s “carbon border adjustment mechanism” (CBAM), the nations “[condemned] unilateral measures introduced under the pretext of climate and environmental concerns”, the statement said.
‘GREEN’ BRICS: State-run newspaper China Daily said Xi told the summit that China was “willing to expand cooperation with BRICS countries in green industries, clean energy and green mining”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) quoted him telling other delegates: “Green is the background colour of this era. BRICS countries should actively integrate into the global green and low-carbon transformation.” The UN said secretary general António Guterres told the meeting that the BRICS could “play a greater role in strengthening multilateralism” and “urged the bloc to…boost climate action”.
BRI ENERGY PLAN: Meanwhile, a ministerial-level meeting on energy in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), convened in China by the National Energy Administration (NEA), resulted in an action plan for “green energy cooperation” between 2024 and 2029, China Daily reported. The action plan, state broadcaster CCTV said, focused on efforts to enhance countries’ ability to guarantee secure supply of “green energy”, particularly through cooperation on “hydrogen, new energy storage and advanced nuclear power”.
Spotlight
What to expect in China’s climate pledge for 2035
The next round of “nationally determined contributions” (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, outlining countries’ climate goals to 2035, are due by February 2025.
They are also set to be an important agenda item at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan next month.
China has not confirmed when it will publish its next NDC. Several groups, including Climate Action Tracker, the International Energy Agency and the Centre for Research on Energy and Air, have set out what it would take to align China’s targets with the 1.5C limit or its existing national goals.
In this Spotlight, Carbon Brief asks leading experts what they expect to see in China’s 2035 NDC. Below are highlights from their answers. Their full responses will be published on Carbon Brief’s website shortly.
Todd Stern, senior fellow, the Brookings Institution and former US special envoy for climate change, in response to a question from Carbon Brief at a Chatham House event:
China is the most important country in the world right now, with respect to their [climate] target. I think that other major players – the US, EU, Japan, Canada, Korea, Australia – are…going to put in pretty ambitious, pretty strong targets of the kind that you want to see.
China now accounts for 30% of global emissions and is basically peaking carbon emissions about now…if not this year then next year. People at the Asia Society and elsewhere have done analysis…basically saying that, in order to be where we need to be, we need to see something like a 30% reduction from China. I am sure this is certainly not what the Chinese are thinking of at the moment, but we’ll see how much of a chance there is to move. If the Chinese come in with a 5-10% target, it will be very bad.
Yao Zhe, global policy advisor, Greenpeace East Asia:
So far, Chinese policymakers have taken a cautious approach, obviously constrained by the challenges in the domestic economy. But, in fact, stronger climate action and more ambitious targets are unmistakably an economic boon for China.
An update of the renewable energy target is expected in China’s new NDC. A stronger target for the next 5-10 years will help expand the domestic market and give industry and investors the confidence they need. It will also lay the groundwork for an ambitious NDC…However, China’s clean-energy potential can only be fully realised with clearer plans to move away from fossil fuels…The new NDC should address this by committing to no new coal power.
Anders Hove, senior research fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies:
China’s past NDCs have tended to reflect trends underway and highlighted concrete targets that are already on-track to be met, rather than adopting ambitious new goals…A modest NDC would likely highlight targets related to renewable energy as a share of electricity production, continued steady growth in wind and solar capacity, and possibly electric vehicle adoption.
Byford Tsang, senior policy fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations:
A reading of policy signals from the recent past suggests that China’s upcoming climate target is going to be conservative: coal-plant approvals spiked in the years following a pledge to “strictly limit” coal power; official data showing that China is on-track to miss its own 2025 carbon intensity targets; and the country’s top energy agency has proposed an annual installation target that would slow down clean-energy deployment.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub, Asia Society Policy Institute:
At least three variables will determine the quality of China’s headline commitment: the quantum [the minimum amount] of emissions reduction; the base year from which emissions will be reduced; and the sectoral and greenhouse gas coverage…Chinese decision-makers could plant ambiguities in any, none, or all these variables.
Some believe China will adopt its emissions peak as the base year for its 2035 target…This formulation could see China not specifying when and at what level its emissions will peak…[and could] make the question of when, and based on what conditions, Beijing will confirm its emission peak ever more important. Currently, Beijing’s policymakers do not believe China’s emissions have peaked.
Niklas Höhne, part of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) and NewClimate Institute, and and Bill Hare, co-founder and CEO of Climate Analytics, and part of CAT:
Amid discussions on China setting a percentage reduction target from peak emission levels, CAT recommends basing the 2035 NDC on a historical baseline…CAT’s modelled domestic pathways indicate that China needs to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 and by 66% by 2035 from 2023 levels to align with the Paris Agreement. A minimum 28% reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 is crucial for China to stay on-track for its 2060 net-zero target.
Hu Min, director and co-founder, Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP) and Chen Meian, senior program director and senior analyst, iGDP:
China’s new NDC is expected to reflect heightened domestic momentum for decarbonisation…The new NDC might also reflect ongoing domestic adjustments to the system for evaluating mitigation progress, such as by including a carbon-budget system. This would be an encouraging move to address absolute carbon mitigation instead of [carbon] intensity.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute:
If it allows emissions to grow until just before 2030 and pursues slow and gradual emission reductions thereafter, China alone would use up almost the entire global carbon budget for 1.5C…As long as the policymakers think in terms of a late 2020s peak, there is little time to reduce emissions from that peak by 2035…While China needs to reduce emissions by at least 30% from 2023 to 2035…it seems more likely that the decision-makers will target a reduction that is a fraction of this, falling short of what’s needed to get to carbon neutrality before 2060.
Lu Lunyan, CEO, WWF China:
We hope China will consider setting clear and ambitious targets for total greenhouse gas emissions, including non-CO2 gases, such as methane, alongside increasing the share of non-fossil fuels, and aligning with the Paris Agreement on the path to net-zero. In addition, sector-specific decarbonisation strategies, particularly for heavy industries, transportation and power generation, will be crucial to achieving meaningful emissions reduction.
This spotlight was compiled by Anika Patel.
Watch, read, listen
US-CHINA: US thinktank the Brookings Institution said in a commentary that the “next US administration’s challenges with China on climate change are threefold”: maintaining climate progress; accelerating the US energy transition; and “continuing to press for forward movement on China’s emissions reductions efforts”.
LIU’S CONFIDENCE: At an Arctic Circle climate action summit, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said China was “confident” it would peak emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
‘GREEN’ TRANSITION: Beijing Daily published an analysis on economic reform, technology innovation and “green transition” by economist Liu Shijin, former member of China’s National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and former deputy president of the State Council’s Development Research Center.
EV COMEITITION: The Financial Times reported that Chinese EV giant BYD’s quarterly sales overtook the US’s leading EV producer Tesla for the first time.
230 billion
TChina’s economic losses due to “natural disasters” between July and September 2024, in yuan, equivalent to $32bn, as reported by Reuters. The figure is based on data from the Ministry of Emergency Management and Reuters calculated that the loss in the third quarter of 2024 was more than double that in the first half of the year. It said total losses of 323bn yuan ($45bn) in 2024 to date were higher than the 308bn a year earlier.
New science
Asia Pacific Science Press
A new study on the city of Wenzhou, in Zhejiang province in east China, examined the “low-carbon transition of modern cities” under China’s “dual-carbon” strategy. It found that Wenzhou has adjusted its energy structure by “vigorously developing” renewable energy sources, guided local enterprises to adopt energy-saving technologies, as well as integrated the “low-carbon concept” into urban planning. The study concluded that these methods – technology adaptation, policy support as well as “talent cultivation and recruitment” strategy – are “validated” for cities’ low-carbon transition in China.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 31 October 2024: Q3 emissions; EU’s EV tariff in effect; NDC expectations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 31 October 2024: Q3 emissions; EU’s EV tariff in effect; NDC expectations
The governor’s office said the city’s two main reservoirs could dry up by May, much sooner than previous timelines. But authorities still offer no plan for curtailment of water use.
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Lena Luig is the head of the International Agricultural Policy Division at the Heinrich Böll Foundation, a member of the Global Alliance for the Future of Food. Anna Lappé is the Executive Director of the Global Alliance for the Future of Food.
As toxic clouds loom over Tehran and Beirut from the US and Israel’s bombardment of oil depots and civilian infrastructure in the region’s ongoing war, the world is once again witnessing the not-so-subtle connections between conflict, hunger, food insecurity and the vulnerability of global food systems dependent on fossil fuels, dominated by a few powerful countries and corporations.
The conflict in Iran is having a huge impact on the world’s fertilizer supply. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical trade route in the region for nearly half of the global supply of urea, the main synthetic fertilizer derived from natural gas through the conversion of ammonia.
With the Strait impacted by Iran’s blockades, prices of urea have shot up by 35% since the war started, just as planting season starts in many parts of the world, putting millions of farmers and consumers at risk of increasing production costs and food price spikes, resulting in food insecurity, particularly for low-income households. The World Food Programme has projected that an extra 45 million people would be pushed into acute hunger because of rises in food, oil and shipping costs, if the war continues until June.
Pesticides and synthetic fertilizer leave system fragile
On the face of it, this looks like a supply chain issue, but at the core of this crisis lies a truth about many of our food systems around the world: the instability and injustice in the very design of systems so reliant on these fossil fuel inputs for our food.
At the Global Alliance, a strategic alliance of philanthropic foundations working to transform food systems, we have been documenting the fossil fuel-food nexus, raising alarm about the fragility of a system propped up by fossil fuels, with 15% of annual fossil fuel use going into food systems, in part because of high-cost, fossil fuel-based inputs like pesticides and synthetic fertilizer. The Heinrich Böll Foundation has also been flagging this threat consistently, most recently in the Pesticide Atlas and Soil Atlas compendia.
We’ve seen this before: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sparked global disruptions in fertilizer supply and food price volatility. As the conflict worsened, fertilizer prices spiked – as much from input companies capitalizing on the crisis for speculation as from real cost increases from production and transport – triggering a food price crisis around the world.
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Since then, fertilizer industry profit margins have continued to soar. In 2022, the largest nine fertilizer producers increased their profit margins by more than 35% compared to the year before—when fertilizer prices were already high. As Lena Bassermann and Dr. Gideon Tups underscore in the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Soil Atlas, the global dependencies of nitrogen fertilizer impacted economies around the world, especially state budgets in already indebted and import-dependent economies, as well as farmers across Africa.
Learning lessons from the war in Ukraine, many countries invested heavily in renewable energy and/or increased domestic oil production as a way to decrease dependency on foreign fossil fuels. But few took the same approach to reimagining domestic food systems and their food sovereignty.
Agroecology as an alternative
There is another way. Governments can adopt policy frameworks to encourage reductions in synthetic fertilizer and pesticide use, especially in regions that currently massively overuse nitrogen fertilizer. At the African Union fertilizer and Soil Health Summit in 2024, African leaders at least agreed that organic fertilizers should be subsidized as well, not only mineral fertilizers, but we can go farther in actively promoting agricultural pathways that reduce fossil fuel dependency.
In 2024, the Global Alliance organized dozens of philanthropies to call for a tenfold increase in investments to help farmers transition from fossil fuel dependency towards agroecological approaches that prioritize livelihoods, health, climate, and biodiversity.
In our research, we detail the huge opportunity to repurpose harmful subsidies currently supporting inputs like synthetic fertilizer and pesticides towards locally-sourced bio-inputs and biofertilizer production. We know this works: There are powerful stories of hope and change from those who have made this transition, despite only receiving a fraction of the financing that industrial agriculture receives, with evidence of benefits from stable incomes and livelihoods to better health and climate outcomes.
New summit in Colombia seeks to revive stalled UN talks on fossil fuel transition
Inspiring examples abound: G-BIACK in Kenya is training farmers how to produce their own high-quality compost; start-ups like the Evola Company in Cambodia are producing both nutrient-rich organic fertilizer and protein-rich animal feed with black soldier fly farming; Sabon Sake in Ghana is enriching sugarcane bagasse – usually organic waste – with microbial agents and earthworms to turn it into a rich vermicompost.
These efforts, grounded in ecosystems and tapping nature for soil fertility and to manage pest pressures, are just some of the countless examples around the world, tapping the skill and knowledge of millions of farmers. On a national and global policy level, the Agroecology Coalition, with 480+ members, including governments, civil society organizations, academic institutions, and philanthropic foundations, is supporting a transition toward agroecology, working with natural systems to produce abundant food, boost biodiversity, and foster community well-being.
Fertilizer industry spins “clean” products
We must also inoculate ourselves from the fertilizer industry’s public relations spin, which includes promoting the promise that their products can be produced without heavy reliance on fossil fuels. Despite experts debunking the viability of what the industry has dubbed “green hydrogen” or “green or clean ammonia”, the sector still promotes this narrative, arguing that these are produced with resource-intensive renewable energy or Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a costly and unreliable technology for reducing emissions.
As we mourn this conflict’s senseless destruction and death, including hundreds of children, we also recognize that peace cannot mean a return to business-as-usual. We need to upend the systems that allow the richest and most powerful to have dominion over so much.
This includes fighting for a food system that is based on genuine sovereignty and justice, free from dependency on fossil fuels, one that honors natural systems and puts power into the hands of communities and food producers themselves.
The post Middle East war is another wake-up call for fossil fuel-reliant food systems appeared first on Climate Home News.
Middle East war is another wake-up call for fossil fuel-reliant food systems
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