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China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
China’s next ‘five-year plan’
NEW PLAN: The Chinese Communist party held its fourth plenum meeting, reported the Guardian, which described it as a “key meeting in the country’s political cycle and a crucial one in the development of its 15th ‘five-year plan’”. China’s “five-year plans” serve as blueprints guiding the country’s economic and social development. The 15th one runs from 2026-30. While the plan will not be released until next year, the full text of the official “adopting recommendations” said a “main target” will be making “major new progress in building a beautiful China”. This includes a “green production and lifestyle to be basically established [and] the carbon-peak target [for 2030] to be achieved as scheduled”, according to the text.
TECHNOLOGY AND ‘INVOLUTION’: The Guardian’s report highlighted the “recommendations” for technology investments and a “crackdown on ‘involution’” – a reference to “fierce internal competition” that has, in the past, led to oversupply. In a “15th ‘five-year plan’ explanation” speech, Chinese president Xi Jinping said “it should be noted that the development of new quality productive forces”, which largely relies on technology, requires “full consideration of practical feasibility”, according to the transcript published by state news agency Xinhua. He also called on local officials to avoid a “rush” to develop projects, when talking about using technological innovation for “promoting a comprehensive green transformation”.
‘GREEN’ TRANSITION: At a post-meeting press conference, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said the “comprehensive realisation of green transformation” requires the construction and implementation of the “dual control of carbon” system and the “green and low-carbon” transition of energy, as well as “industrial structure” and “production and lifestyle”. The National Energy Administration (NEA) also pledged to “focus on” building a “clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new energy system” at a separate meeting, reported industry news outlet BJX News. Belinda Schäpe, China policy analyst from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), commented on LinkedIn that the commitment to build the “dual control of carbon” was “expected”. She added that the “reaffirmation” of renewable expansion was an “important signal given the uncertainty of the sector’s future after the policy pricing reform” came into force earlier this year.
EXPERT REACTION: Schäpe called the mention of “[promoting the] peaking [of] coal and oil consumption” an “important signal”, as this is the first time “such language appears in a top-level planning document”. The oil-peak target “aligns with international expectations” and the “references to ‘clean and efficient use’ and ‘orderly replacement’ suggest a managed transformation of coal’s role – focusing on retrofits, flexibility and system support rather than new capacity growth”, she added. This suggestion of a peaking for coal and oil “allows” coal consumption to “increase in the early years of the five-year period”, according to a LinkedIn post by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst from CREA. He said the peaking suggestion, although “in line with the goal of peaking [carbon dioxide] CO2 emissions before 2030”, provides “no guarantees of achieving a [CO2] reduction from 2025 to 2030, let alone starting from 2025”. The “most important question” for the next “five-year plan”, he added, is “whether China is committed to honouring the 2021 commitments: reducing carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 to 2030 and ‘gradually reducing coal consumption’” over the next five years.
Pre-COP30 report
CLIMATE REPORT: The Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released an annual report on “China’s policies and actions on climate change 2025” ahead of COP30, reported the Chinese media outlet 21st Century Business Herald. The newspaper quoted Xia Yingxian, director of the MEE’s department of climate change, saying the report “showcased” China’s “significant contributions to mitigation, adaptation, carbon markets, carbon footprint, climate policies and regulations and leading global climate governance”.
GLOBAL COOPERATION: The Paper, a Shanghai-based media outlet, reported that Xia said China “follows through” on its global climate cooperation commitments. Speaking about the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said climate change has become an “urgent issue” and – in an apparent reference to the US – added that no country can “be a deserter”, according to a video posted by China News. Vice premier Ding Xuexiang also “said that China stands ready to work with all parties to advance global green development”, reported Xinhua. China’s stance on global climate cooperation was reiterated at a G20 environmental meeting in South Africa, according to International Energy Net.
China-EU climate cooperation
FINANCE: The 21st Century Business Herald wrote that the MEE’s report indicated COP30 should make “positive progress” in meeting the financial targets agreed at COP29 – the “aspirational” target of $1.3tn a year and at least $300bn of climate finance a year by 2035. Xia said the $300bn pledge did not “fully reflect” the “capital contribution obligations of developed countries”, added the outlet. Meanwhile, the EU’s climate chief Wopke Hoekstra asked China to boost its climate-finance offering, reported European news website Euractiv. He said “China is an upper middle income country” and “Europe just simply does not have the pockets” to provide all the needed climate finance “by itself”, according to the outlet.
CLIMATE TIES: In a press release following a recent meeting between Chinese premier Li Qiang and European Council president António Costa, Costa was quoted saying that “climate action has to remain [at the] top of our agendas” and that COP30 will “offer an opportunity for the EU and China to lead with ambition in order to achieve a successful outcome”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post said Li also expressed Beijing’s willingness to work with the EU on matters including “the environment”. Costa added that “I shared my strong concern about China’s expanding export controls on critical raw materials”, urging Li to “restore as soon as possible fluid, reliable and predictable supply chains”, according to the press release.
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EXPORT CONTROLS: The trade dispute over China’s supply of rare earths was “settled” during a meeting between US president Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi in South Korea earlier today, reported the Guardian. Reuters said China agreed to delay the introduction of the next round of export controls, but that earlier restrictions on critical minerals will remain. The rare-earth minerals “play tiny, but vital roles” in products such as cars, planes and weapons, the newswire added. The US will also lower tariffs on some Chinese imports, according to ABC News.
More wind, less coal
COAL DECLINE: Official data showed that China’s thermal power generation – mainly from coal – dropped 5.4% in September, reported Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is consulting on its new steel capacity “swap” policy that aims to “promote market supply and demand balance”. Reuters said this was a “more stringent” swapping plan than the previous one that has been paused for 14 months. Shen Xinyi, researcher from CREA, explained on LinkedIn that the new programme “raises the replacement ratio to 1.5:1 nationwide” and encourages cross-regional swaps. She added the measures “signal a deeper shift: from expansion control to structural optimisation and decarbonisation”, calling it a “strategic move to restructure and rebalance China’s steel landscape”.
MORE WIND: A new industry proposal, the “Beijing Declaration on Wind Energy 2.0”, put forward a goal for the country’s wind capacity to reach “1.3 terawatts (TW) by 2030, at least 2TW by 2035 and a staggering 5TW by 2060”, said state-run newspaper China Daily. The outlet called the new plan a “significant increase” from an earlier declaration, which had targeted 3TW by 2060. The same group of wind-industry players are “lobbying the government to install at least 120 gigawatts (GW) of wind-power capacity in each of the next five years, an acceleration of the country’s energy transition that would more than double output by the end of the decade”, reported Bloomberg. The official goal is to install 3.6TW of capacity for wind and solar power combined by 2035, added the outlet.
OVERSEAS EXPANSION: After two years of talk with the UK government, Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Ming Yang announced that it wants to build a £1.5bn project in Scotland, said BBC News. European governments, however, were “increasingly wary of Chinese companies’ involvement” in offshore wind, which is a “cornerstone of northern Europe’s clean-energy strategy”, reported Reuters. Exports of China’s other renewable energy products, namely, the “new three” – lithium-ion batteries, solar cells and electric vehicles (EVs) – rose nearly 40% year-on-year in September, according to official data, reported financial outlet Caixin. Separately, China “sent a clear signal that it is willing to pull the plug on subsidies” for the EV industry, said Reuters.
Spotlight
Q&A: How China is developing ‘vehicle-to-grid’ to strengthen its electricity system
China’s surging electric vehicles (EVs) ownership – now exceeding 25.5m – is opening the door to a new technology that turns EVs into “power banks” to help with the flexibility of electricity supply.
Carbon Brief looks into the technology, known as “vehicle-to-grid” (V2G), and explains how it has sparked interest in China. The full article is available on Carbon Brief’s website.
How can V2G help balance the grid?
In China, EVs with bidirectional batteries, when plugged into V2G-capable charging stations, are able to sell their stored electricity back to the grid in nine “pilot cities”, including Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Dr Muyi Yang, senior electricity analyst at thinktank Ember, told Carbon Brief that a fleet of grid-connected EVs could help China achieve its broader plan to restructure its power sector towards a “new power system” that aims to be more flexible and responsive to power volatility.
Zhou Xiaohang, China clean-power project manager at the US-registered Natural Resource Defense Council in Beijing, told Carbon Brief that, in the long run, V2G can help to address the curtailment issue for renewable energy, which is often referred to as the “Xiaona” problem in China.
What is the current state of V2G adoption?
Currently, V2G has not been widely deployed in China. The cost of V2G infrastructure installation remains high.
Zhou said the success of large-scale roll out of V2G depends on whether there are enough EVs equipped with the bidirectional batteries and able to be plugged into V2G-capable charging stations.
China “already [has] enough EVs on the road to make [V2G] possible”, she added.
Meanwhile, popular car brands such as BYD and Nio have released new EV models with V2G features and many more are actively testing and preparing for two-way electric charging.
There are 30 demonstration projects going on at the moment. Shenzhen, for example, received more than 70,000 kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity from about 2,500 EVs in June.
Regional governments have also been working to introduce more profitable pricing systems to boost user participation.
Guangdong province, in south China, launched a V2G pricing plan that is “appealing” enough for EV owners to see a profit from participating in the scheme, according to Zhou.
What are the challenges in expansion?
A large share of China’s electricity is still traded through long-term power contracts, which could limit incentives for individual EV owners to engage in power-trading.
Shen Xinyi, researcher at Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told Carbon Brief:
“Flexible systems like V2G and distributed solar power need a well-developed spot market and experienced, professional players such as power retailers to truly thrive.”
Zhou said whether V2G can be rolled out at scale also depends on the attitudes of consumers.
Chinese media outlet the Paper reported that people had expressed concerns on battery health and safety issues, including whether frequent discharges could cause battery degradation.
In April 2024, Hui Dong, chief technical expert at the China Electric Power Research Institute, a research institute affiliated to the State Grid Corporation of China, stated that, in terms of lifespan, chemical energy storage systems, represented by lithium-ion batteries, are still “underperforming”.
Watch, read, listen
CARBON REDUCTION: Prof Jiang Yi, director of building energy research centre at Tsinghua University, explained how to “reduce carbon” on both “the side of production” and “the side of consumption” in an interview with financial outlet Yicai.
INDONESIA’S JOURNEY: The China Global South Project aired a podcast on China’s role in “Indonesia’s push for clean energy and more coal”.
CLIMATE STATEMENTS: China Daily published a list of climate statements from prominent Chinese politicians and researchers, including Liu Zhenmin, China special envoy for climate change.
ENERGY CHALLENAGES: In a long interview with 21st Century Business Herald, Energy Foundation China president Zou Ji said “grid integration challenges” are the most “immediate obstacle” to China’s clean-energy buildout.
5tn
The growth in “added value” – a component of economic output – of China’s “green industries” from 2020-25, in Chinese yuan ($700bn), according to 21st Century Business Herald. The newspaper quoted Ren Yong, chief engineer at the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, saying that the “added value of green and low-carbon sectors in key industries” accounted for 8.3% of GDP in 2020 and is expected to rise to 11.7% in 2025, according to the newspaper. [Previous analysis for Carbon Brief found clean-energy industries accounted for 10% of China’s GDP in 2024.]
New science
Ecology and Society
New research examined different approaches to assessing the vulnerability of fisheries to climate impacts, finding that using a data-driven approach can result in differing vulnerability than using a “knowledge-driven” one. The authors wrote that their results underline the “importance of engaging local knowledge to validate findings and provide contextualised interpretations for more effective management strategies”.
Mechanisms behind the rapid rise of extreme heat discomfort days in south China
Npj climate and atmospheric science
The number and strength of extreme heat discomfort days in south China has undergone a “sharp rise” since 2000, according to a new study. Researchers used observational weather data and a machine-learning model to determine the atmospheric circulation patterns that cause the extreme events. They found that an area of high pressure over the Pacific Ocean weakened the summer monsoon winds.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 30 October 2025: 15th ‘five-year plan’ priorities; 2035 wind goal; ‘Vehicle-to-grid’ tech appeared first on Carbon Brief.
High levels of national debt in parts of the Global South could hinder efforts to move away from fossil fuels, a new report warns, as more than 50 countries gather this week in Colombia for the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels.
The report, published by the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative in the lead-up to the flagship conference, argues that the current debt architecture is trapping developing countries in a “feedback loop” in which fossil fuel revenues are needed to service debt, while fossil fuel expansion locks countries into borrowing even more.
The cycle, according to the report, leaves very little fiscal space for highly indebted countries to end their reliance on coal, oil and gas revenues, even when their leaders want to phase out fossil fuels. This is the case for some first-mover countries such as Colombia, which is hosting the conference in Santa Marta.
Amiera Sawas, one of the report’s authors and head of research and policy at the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative, said the conflict in the Middle East is making this “debt injustice and fossil fuel entrapment” even more evident.
“What we have to start understanding is that both fossil fuels and debt are actually extractions from the Global South,” Sawas told the report’s launch during the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings in Washington DC this month. “Many countries are paying more in debt servicing than they are getting in climate finance.”
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Solar surge kept fossil electricity flat in 2025 as China and India made ‘historic’ shift
Energy think tank Ember said fossil fuel electricity fell slightly in both countries simultaneously for the first time, tipping the global balance
Since 2010, low and middle-income countries (LIMCs) have more than doubled their external debt, reaching an all-time high of $8.9 trillion two years ago. They paid about $415 billion in interest on that debt in 2024 – 2.4 times higher than a decade earlier.
At the same time, in some cases like Colombia, Egypt and Jordan, austerity measures agreed as part of IMF and World Bank loan programmes restrict governments from investing in cleaner sources of revenue like renewable energy, the report says.
Leading countries constrained by debt
Colombia – one of the countries leading the global call for a transition away from fossil fuels – is facing precisely such financial barriers to achieving its transition, said Camilo Rodríguez, another of the report’s authors and a research analyst with Oil Change International.
The country has halted all new oil and gas licences and published an energy transition plan estimating transition costs at about 7-10% of its GDP. Yet the government depends on fossil fuel revenues to service its $265-billion public debt, meaning it must find an alternative source of income to cover debt payments.
Rodríguez said debt “is the main barrier nowadays to promote the energy transition and the industrialisation of the economy”.
The South American country has only grown more dependent on fossil fuels over time, as they represented 36% of exports in 2001 and now account for about 52%. Austerity policies still in place after IMF loans have left very little room for investing in Colombia’s energy transition plan, the report says.
Other countries have shown similar patterns. Jordan – despite its staggering public debt equivalent to 90% of GDP – became one of the fastest-growing markets for wind, solar and electric vehicles in the Middle East region. From 2014 to 2021, Jordan went from less than 1% of its electricity generation coming from renewables to 26%, benefiting from the significantly cheaper costs of installing wind and solar power compared with adding fossil fuel capacity.
But Jordan’s high reliance on fossil fuel revenues created an incentive for policymakers to opt for expanding gas projects over renewables, and the country ended up suspending new licences for many solar and wind projects. In 2024, about 40% of government revenues were used to service debt.
“This is not marginal – it is central to the fiscal system. It creates what I would describe as structural fiscal addiction,” said Ali Nasrallah, a policy and research manager at the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. “The state depends on revenues from consumption that is economically, environmentally and socially harmful.”
Gas flaring soars in Niger Delta post-Shell, afflicting communities
Another report by the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative, published in March, argues that debt entrapment in Africa also exacerbates gender injustice. Social consequences from fossil fuel extraction and use – such as displacement of communities or health harm from pollution – can have a substantial effect on local women while, at the same time, states face constraints to increasing social spending to support them.
“African women are facing disproportionate impacts of the fossil fuel industry’s long-running legacy of violence and dispossession,” the report says. “But they are also leading the resistance to it,” it adds, with women-led coalitions in places like Uganda or the Niger Delta challenging major oil and gas projects.
Policy recommendations
As governments head to Santa Marta – where “gaps in the financial and investment system” are on the agenda – the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative recommends building international coalitions to address debt, reforming multilateral financial institutions and increasing funding commitments from donor nations.
The proposed policies include debt cancellation as a way of creating fiscal space in the Global South, ending all international finance for fossil fuel expansion, establishing a binding mechanism on debt resolution at the UN, and advancing green industrialisation to replace fossil fuel revenues.
“To dismantle carbon lock-in and debt at source, we need to recognise collectively that the escalating debt in the Global South is actually an injustice,” said Sawas of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. “We have to name the problem and be honest with ourselves – and that’s where the recommendation of debt cancellation is so critical.”
Comment: Broken debt system must be fixed to confront future climate shocks
As part of the new climate finance goal adopted at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, governments have already agreed to “remove barriers and address dis-enablers” faced by developing countries, including “limited fiscal space” and “unsustainable debt levels”.
Building on this, any plan for a global roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, such as the initiative proposed at COP30 by more than 80 governments, should address the debt crisis in the Global South, Sawas said. One alternative could be financing the rollout of renewables with more public grants rather than loans, she added.
“We need to start properly funding renewable energy and diversification,” she said. “Currently it’s almost impossible for a lot of countries in the Global South to actually make the energy transition, because there’s no support structure.”
The post To phase out fossil fuels, developing countries need exit route from “debt trap” appeared first on Climate Home News.
To phase out fossil fuels, developing countries need exit route from “debt trap”
China exported a record amount of solar components and photovoltaic panels last month, signalling that manufacturers are benefiting from stronger demand for clean energy technologies as the Iran war has caused oil and gas prices to soar and threatens supply shortages.
The world’s second largest economy exported solar panels, cells and wafers capable of generating 68 gigawatts (GW) in March – the equivalent of Spain’s entire solar capacity, according to analysis of data from Chinese customs authority by global energy think-tank Ember.
March’s volume was more than double exports in February and 49% more than the previous record set in August 2025. Three-quarters of the increase came from exports to Asia and Africa.
As well as the Middle East conflict, a rush by Chinese manufacturers to export solar modules and cells before an export tax rebate ended on April 1 – adding 9% to solar panel costs – was a major driver of the export spike.
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Q&A: Will subsidy cuts for Chinese clean-tech exports hurt Africa’s solar boom?
Renewable energy developer Karl Boyce talks to Climate Home News about China’s VAT rebate cuts and the biggest challenges for Africa’s efforts to boost energy access -
Fossil fuel crisis offers chance to speed up energy transition, ministers say
As climate diplomacy resumes in Berlin, ministers say the Iran war-driven fuel crisis is exposing the risks of fossil dependence -
Solar surge kept fossil electricity flat in 2025 as China and India made ‘historic’ shift
Energy think tank Ember said fossil fuel electricity fell slightly in both countries simultaneously for the first time, tipping the global balance
“The volumes exported are absolutely gigantic,” Euan Graham, senior analyst at Ember, told Climate Home News.
“We will see over the coming months how much of that was linked to the tax rebate and how much of that is additional demand – that might vary by region. But certainly a big part of this is the response to the energy crisis,” he said.
China ends tax rebate on solar exports
For Qi Qin, China analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, March’s export surge was most likely driven by the end of the tax rebate, which brought forward demand, with high energy prices bolstering the trend.
“Policy deadlines can create a sharp one-month jump in export, while by comparison, higher oil and gas prices caused by the war are… more likely to support demand over the medium term rather than explain such a strong spike in one single month,” she told Climate Home News.
Earlier this year, the Chinese government announced that the solar export tax discount was coming to an end in an effort to prevent trade disputes and cut-throat competition for low-price exports among Chinese manufacturers.
In a note at the time, Trivium China, an analysis firm that specialises in monitoring Chinese government policy, said Beijing had become frustrated with state tax resources being used to subsidise overseas consumers. “The rebate end date is all but certain to trigger one of the largest module production booms in history” to beat the April export price hike, it said.
Solar manufacturing booms outside China
Across the world, 50 countries set records for Chinese solar imports in March, while a further 60 saw the highest import levels in six months. Chinese solar exports to Africa reached 10GW last month, a 176% increase compared with the previous month while exports to Asia doubled to 39GW.
The increase is partly driven by growing solar manufacturing and assembly capacity outside China, as countries seek to produce more of their own solar capacity as well as export panels to other markets. In October last year, Chinese exports of solar cells and wafers overtook already assembled solar panels. In March alone, Chinese solar panel exports reached 32 GW while cells and wafers exports amounted to 36 GW.
India, which is rapidly building out a solar manufacturing industry, is increasingly importing wafers from China, which can be manufactured domestically into solar cells and assembled into panels. Chinese solar exports to India were up 141% in March compared to February.
In Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia all imported over 1GW of solar for the first time in a single month, predominantly in the form of solar cells that are then assembled into panels. Exports to Nigeria, which is seeking to significantly ramp up its solar assembly capacity, rocketed 519% – the largest percentage increase.
“We’ve eagerly awaited the first signs of how countries around the world are responding to the energy crisis and this is just the first piece of evidence we have. The full effects of it will be revealing themselves for months to come, both in terms of the immediate consumer response and also more structural government policy changes,” said Graham of Ember.
The post China’s solar exports reach “gigantic” record in March as energy crisis bites appeared first on Climate Home News.
China’s solar exports reach “gigantic” record in March as energy crisis bites
American Efficient says it was helping incentivize energy savings at major companies. One member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said that the company’s “entire business is a scam.”
This story was published in partnership with The Assembly.
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