Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
‘Third Plenum’ called for unleashing tech innovation
FULL STEAM AHEAD: The “Third Plenum”, an important five-yearly political meeting traditionally associated with major economic reforms, concluded in Beijing on 18 July with a call to “make ‘high-quality development’ the guiding force” of the nation’s economy, Bloomberg reported. Policymakers resolved to foster “new quality productive forces” to “promote revolutionary breakthroughs in technology” and “in-depth industrial transformation and upgrading”, with a particular focus on strategic industries such as new energy, Reuters said. (See this issue’s spotlight or the full article on the Carbon Brief website for more on what this means for China’s industrial, energy and climate policy.)
SPECIFIC POLICIES: The full text of the resolutions adopted at the meeting includes several other policy prescriptions related to the energy sector, industry newspaper BJX News reported. These include calls to “deepen reform of the energy management system”, build a “unified national electricity market”, promote “price reforms” in the energy sector, and advancing “market-oriented reform” of the energy sector, it added. Specific policies related to these aims are expected to be released soon.
CLIMATE FOCUS: State news agency Xinhua said that policy goals also include to “improve ecological conservation systems”, take a “coordinated approach” to “carbon emissions reduction” and “actively respond to climate change”. On Twitter, Belinda Schäpe noted that this was the first time carbon emissions reduction has been mentioned in a Third Plenum communique. In an “explanation” of the plenum’s outcome published on the party-affiliated People’s Daily, President Xi Jinping said that China will “improve the mechanism of green and low-carbon development”, adding that “ecological and environmental protection still has shortcomings”.
PROVIDING ‘MIRACLES’: The state-run Science and Technology Daily reported that, in an “important barometer” of economic growth, electricity consumption by solar manufacturing rose 76% year-on-year, while that of new energy vehicle manufacturing grew 39% year-on-year. A commentary published in the People’s Daily by Zhong Yin – a nom de plume indicating that an article represents the view of party leadership – said that innovation and reform will allow China to create “miracles that will impress the world”.
Roadmap for ‘low-carbon transformation’ of coal
‘CLEAN COAL’: China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the nation’s primary economic planning body, and the National Energy Administration (NEA), issued an action plan for the “low carbon transformation” of coal-fired power plants, Bloomberg reported. It added that the government will increase “financial support for projects to reduce emissions at coal power plants” through methods such as burning biomass and green ammonia or using carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). The plan, the outlet explained, aims to halve the “emissions intensity” – the emissions per unit of electricity generation – of an unspecified number of plants by 2027 compared to 2023 levels. If the 2027 target is achieved, these coal power plants’ emissions intensity will be “close to that of natural gas power generating units”, energy news outlet BJX News said. State news agency Xinhua, which described the plan as a “roadmap”, said it will “create a stronger leading role for the clean and low-carbon transformation of coal power”.
UNCERTAIN IMPACT: Asia Society Policy Institute senior fellow Lauri Myllyvirta noted on LinkedIn that the policy does not state how many plants will be retrofitted or how the state plans on incentivising industry players to do so, which will “determine the direct impact of this policy”. Analysis in the Shuang Tan newsletter argued that the policy is “unlikely to drive industry-wide transformation or attract large-scale investment”, stating that its true purpose may be to “test the selected technologies [CCUS, biomass and green ammonia] at a few carefully chosen coal power units”.
CARBON MARKET: One China-based power analyst told S&P Global that efforts to tackle coal emissions to date had largely been driven by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment’s (MEE) national carbon market (ETS), adding that the new “clean coal” policy “may be a call-out” by the NDRC that the MEE’s ETS targets are “too nice” and the mechanism is “too slow [in financing] these frontier decarbonisation technologies”. London Stock Exchange Group senior carbon analyst Luyue Tan argued on LinkedIn, however, that the ETS, which has been operating for three years as of 16 July, has encouraged greater uptake of emissions reduction technology. She added that its coverage will grow from 5.1bn tonnes of CO2 in 2022 to 8bn tonnes of CO2 in 2025, once the scheme is expanded to also cover the aluminium, cement and iron and steel sectors.
Tech and aluminium get ‘green and low carbon’ targets
DATA CENTRE TARGETS: The Chinese government released a new action plan for the “green and low carbon development” of data centres, Xinhua reported. The plan stated that by 2025, China’s data centres will achieve a power usage effectiveness (PUE) – a ratio that describes how much energy is used by the computing equipment – of below 1.5, and will “increase the utilisation rate of renewable energy in data centres by 10% annually”, it added. Energy news outlet International Energy Net said that the plan also includes goals for the centres’ “average PUE and energy carbon efficiency per unit [of computing power]” to reach “internationally advanced levels”.
COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT: In an interview shared by BJX News, an NDRC representative said that data centres, “as an important infrastructure for development of new quality productive forces”’ will be a sector where energy use is expected to grow by 15% per year. The official explained that China will encourage the “coordinated construction of large-scale wind and solar power bases and national [data centre] hubs”, with more data centres to be built in western regions to satisfy computing power demand in eastern China.
ALUMINIUM TRANSITION: China also released an action plan for energy efficiency and reducing emissions in the aluminium industry for 2024 and 2025, International Energy Net reported. The plan, which is linked to the overarching industry plan launched in May, states that construction of new “captive” coal-fired power plants will no longer be permitted and that existing coal-fired plants should be replaced by renewable energy sources, such as “renewable energy-based microgrids”, the energy news outlet said. It added that, according to the plan, the industry will save 2.5m tonnes of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 6.5m tonnes by 2025.
Wind turbines and EV software in the subsidies spotlight
SUBSIDIES: An investigation into Chinese wind turbine companies in Spain, Greece, France, Romania and Bulgaria has been expanded to include those operating in Germany, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported, amid concerns in the EU around China’s subsidisation of its low-carbon technologies sector. Meanwhile, the US may “impose limits on some software made in China” for vehicles, including electric vehicles (EVs), according to Reuters. Separately, E&E News said that China has called on the World Trade Organization (WTO) panel to resolve a dispute over US subsidies for domestically-manufactured EVs under the Inflation Reduction Act, which China argues “artificially sets trade barriers” and pushes “up the cost of green energy transformation”. The WTO said that China has a “lack of transparency” on industrial subsidies in its economy, citing this as a possible cause for the international concerns around “perceived” overcapacity, Bloomberg reported.
BUSINESS AS USUAL: US-based solar manufacturing plants built by Chinese companies will have at least 20 gigawatts of annual production capacity within the next year, enough to serve about half the US market, according to Reuters. By contrast, non-Chinese companies “have found it hard to compete”, with as many as half of their planned US factories possibly failing to come online, the newswire added. Meanwhile, Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Envision may soon sign a deal to build a wind turbine manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia, “as part of the kingdom’s efforts to localise supply chains”, Bloomberg reported. Another Bloomberg article said that two Chinese solar giants will build manufacturing plants in Saudi Arabia worth $3bn, adding that Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng had previously said the two countries “should expand cooperation in emerging sectors such as renewable energy”.
Spotlight
Q&A: What China’s push for ‘new quality productive forces’ means for climate action
China’s Third Plenum, an eagerly awaited five-yearly meeting traditionally associated with major economic reforms, concluded on 18 July in Beijing.
The official readout calls on policymakers to pursue “high-quality economic development”, in part through “developing new quality productive forces” (NQPF).
NQPF was also listed as a policy priority in the ‘resolution’ released after the plenum. This, the resolution says, includes “pursuing innovation” in the new energy industry, “green” industrial upgrading and improving “environmental protection”.
However, there is significant debate as to whether this push will result in concrete policy outcomes.
In this issue, Carbon Brief unpacks what China’s NQPF drive means for its climate, energy and industrial policy. This analysis is published in full on the Carbon Brief website.
What does NQPF mean?
In January 2024, President Xi Jinping defined NQPF as innovation-led development that creates “a break with traditional economic growth models and development pathways”, resulting in a “high level of technology, efficiency and quality” as well as an “in-depth transformation and upgrading of industry”.
This has led to a “ubiquitous” focus on innovation across official discussions about NQPF, according to the University of Cambridge-affiliated thinktank Cambridge Industrial Innovation Policy.
But NQPF is about more than innovation and advanced technology alone. Analysis by the Council on Geostrategy says “while scientific and technological innovation is essential, [China recognises there] needs also to be deeper [economic] reforms”.
Low-carbon development is one of the few named priorities of the otherwise high-level theory. NQPF will provide an “important support for green development”, according to a commentary in the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily.
“Protecting the ecological environment is to protect productivity and improving the ecological environment is to develop productivity,” it adds.
Why is the concept important?
NQPF represents a holistic approach “designed to address complex, interrelated challenges faced by China and to create a more resilient and dynamic economy”, Dr Muyi Yang, senior electricity policy analyst for China from the thinktank Ember, tells Carbon Brief.
Arthur Kroeber, founding partner and head of research at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, tells Carbon Brief that NQPF is “the latest iteration of a long-running trend towards industrial policy, technology and intensive growth”.
This is “essentially a new bottle for old wine”, Kroeber adds. “I think what it does do is emphasise the point that there is a national mission” to build China into a technological superpower.
The idea addresses specific anxieties facing China’s leadership. As well as supporting economic growth, strengthening the country’s ability to innovate is part of a broader security drive.
Xi said in his January 2024 speech that he believes China is “still reliant on others for some core technologies…our industry is still not strong enough in spite of its size and falls short of excellence”.
What does this mean for China’s ‘green development’?
A primary aim of NQPF is to expand “strategic emerging industries” and “nurture future industries”, a commentary in the state-run newspaper China Daily argues.
These include a range of low carbon technologies, from electric vehicles (EV) to nuclear fusion. Recent analysis for Carbon Brief found that “clean energy” sectors contributed 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to China’s economy in 2023.
Much of this will be driven by state-coordinated efforts. China Daily says that efforts to cultivate NQPF will “encourage” state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to deploy resources towards target industries.
These efforts are inspired particularly by the success of the EV industry, with several commentaries and articles highlighting its growth in analysis of NQPF.
Using innovation to foster leading expertise across different industries, China hopes, will allow the country to replicate this growth in other industries.
For example, a blog post on CCTV-affiliated WeChat account Yuyuan Tantian draws a link between China’s experience in manufacturing LCD televisions and its later success in developing solar technologies.
But China’s use of state resources to support strategically important industries has recently fuelled anxieties about “overcapacity” in some countries.
There are also concerns around overcapacity domestically. Han Wenxiu, executive deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, cautioned officials against “blind conformity and bubbles”.
But given current tensions with the US, Kroeber tells Carbon Brief, China “can’t rely on imports of technology in the same way…It must have an all-of-nation effort to develop its own alternatives.”
In his view, efforts to foster NQPF “could” lead to creation of more capacity, but this may be “unintentional” as “the Europeans and Chinese are actually starting discussions on [resolving concerns around] EVs”.
At the same time, Chinese ministries are highlighting the concept in more concrete policies. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) announced that it will release a “1+N” policy on NQPF, while the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) will establish a centre promoting the concept.
Analysis has said this could signal the MEE “leveraging” the concept to “push through reforms that might otherwise be stymied” by other stakeholders, or improve MOST’s “autonomy” in making innovation policy.
Kroeber says that every policy document “now has to have some reference to NQPF”.
However, he adds, one area to watch is power market reform, as “coordination and the state playing a more leading role” will be crucial to progress.
Yang tells Carbon Brief that NQPF “is far from being purely conceptual”. He says: “I believe more actions in various sectors will come soon to translate it into concrete initiatives and programs.”
Watch, read, listen
BIG IDEAS: The European Council on Foreign Relations published a book explaining key theoretical concepts in Chinese policy discussions, such as “green industrialism” and “ecological civilisation”.
MARKET REFORM: Caixin carried a transcript of a recent speech by former central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, in which he argued for a “more responsive pricing system” in China’s power market to boost decarbonisation of the electricity system.
HYDROGEN PIVOT: China News published a video feature of how Lüliang city in coal-rich Shanxi province is betting on hydrogen to power its energy transition.
SPURRING STEEL: A new paper published by the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies explored the challenges of decarbonising China’s steel industry and the domestic and global climate policies that can incentivise a quicker energy transition.
20.8 million
The number of people in China affected by flooding between 1 January and 12 July, according to the Ministry of Emergency Management (MEM). The MEM also announced that, in the first half of this year, heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides caused 21,000 homes to collapse, affected 13.3m hectares of crops and caused 59bn yuan (£6.4bn) in direct economic losses.
New science
Substantial increase in perfluorocarbons CF4 (PFC-14) and C2F6 (PFC-116) emissions in China
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Chinese emissions of the greenhouse gases tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane increased by 78% between 2011 and 2021, according to new research. The authors analysed “atmospheric observations” from nine sites in China, and found that the country’s combined emissions of the two gases reached 78m tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2021. The study found “substantial” emissions from the less-populated western regions of China, likely because they are byproducts from the expanding aluminium industry.
The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically
Communications Earth & Environment
A new study found that water stress will increase in China between 2020 and 2099 under both high and low emission scenarios, mainly due to “decreased water supplies like surface runoff and snow water content”. The authors developed a “water stress prediction index”, which revealed that changes in water stress will mainly be driven by changes in spring and autumn. They added that water stress is likely to be higher in north-western provinces than south-eastern ones. These changes in water stress “could lead to the north-to-south migration of the agriculture sector, manufacturing sector and human population”, the authors warned.
Prioritising forestation in China through incorporating biogeochemical and local biogeophysical effects
Earth’s Future
A new study highlighted the importance of considering the biogeophysical (BGP) effects of forestation – via modification of land surface temperature – as well as the biogeochemical (BGC) effects of carbon sequestration. The authors noted that current forestation policies in China only consider the BGC effect. However, by considering both BGC and BGP effects, the study identified an extra 167.2m hectares (Mha) of potentially suitable area for forestation in China. The paper added that “considering both effects will displace 17.7% (15.3 Mha) of forestation areas determined by considering only the BGC effect under the 2060 forestation target”. The study found that in China, the BGC and BGP effects of forestation “mostly work in synergy” to increase the “overall climate benefits”.
China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song, Anika Patel and Ada Carpenter. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 25 July: ‘Third plenum’ outcomes; ‘Low-carbon’ coal plants; EU probes wind subsidies appeared first on Carbon Brief.
China Briefing 25 July: ‘Third plenum’ outcomes; ‘Low-carbon’ coal plants; EU probes wind subsidies
Colombia wants countries to discuss options for a global agreement to ensure that the extraction, processing and recycling of minerals – including those needed for the clean energy transition – don’t harm the environment and human wellbeing.
The mineral-rich nation is proposing to create an expert group to “identify options for international instruments, including global and legally-binding instruments, for coordinated global action on the environmentally sound management of minerals and metals through [their] full lifecyle”.
Colombia hopes this will eventually lead to an agreement on the need for an international treaty to define mandatory rules and standards that would make mineral value chains more transparent and accountable.
The proposal was set out in a draft resolution submitted to the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA) earlier this week and seen by Climate Home News. UNEA, which is constituted of all UN member states, is the world’s top decision-making body for matters relating to the environment. The assembly’s seventh session will meet in Kenya in December to vote on countries’ proposals.
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Soaring demand for the minerals used to manufacture clean energy technologies and electric vehicles, as well as in the digital, construction and defence industries have led to growing environmental destruction, human rights violations and social conflict.
Colombia argues there is an “urgent need” to strengthen global cooperation and governance to reduce the risks to people and the planet.
Options for a global minerals agreement
The proposal is among a flurry of initiatives to strength global mineral governance at a time when booming demand is putting pressure on new mining projects.
Colombia, which produces emeralds, gold, platinum and silver for exports, first proposed the idea for a binding international agreement on minerals traceability and accountability on the sidelines of the UN biodiversity talks it hosted in October 2024.
Since then, the South American nation has been quietly trying to drum up support for the idea, especially among African and European nations.
Its draft resolution to UNEA7 contains very few details, leaving it open for countries to discuss what kind of global instrument would be best suited to make mineral supply chains more transparent and sustainable.
Does the world need a global treaty on energy transition minerals?
Colombia says it wants the expert group to build on other UN initiatives, including a UN Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, which set out seven principles to ensure the mining, processing and recycling of energy transition minerals are done responsibly and benefit everyone.
The group would include technical experts and representatives from international and regional conventions, major country groupings as well as relevant stakeholders.
It would examine the feasibility and effectiveness of different options for a global agreement, consider their costs and identify measures to support countries to implement what is agreed.
The resolution also calls for one or two meetings for member states to discuss the idea before the UNEA8 session planned in late 2027, when countries would decide on a way forward.
No time to lose for treaty negotiations
Colombia’s efforts to advance global talks on mineral supply chains have been welcomed by resource experts and campaigners. But not everyone agrees on the best strategy to move the discussion forward at a time when multilateralism is coming under attack.
Johanna Sydow, a resource policy expert who heads the international environmental policy division of the Heinrich-Böll Foundation, said she had hoped that the resolution would explicitly call for negotiations to begin on an international minerals treaty.
“Treaty negotiations take a long time. If you don’t even start with it now, it will take even longer. I don’t see how in two or three years it will be easier to come to an agreement,” she told Climate Home.
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Despite the geopolitical challenges, “we need joint rules to prevent a huge race to the bottom for [mineral] standards”. That could start with a group of countries coming together and starting to enforce joint standards for mining, processing and recycling minerals, she said.
But any meaningful global agreement on mineral supply chains would require backing from China, the world’s largest processor of minerals, which dominates most of the supply chains. And with Colombia heading for an election in May, it will need all the support it can get to move its proposal forward.
‘Voluntary initiative won’t cut it’
Juliana Peña Niño, Colombia country manager at the Natural Resource Governance Institute, is more optimistic. “Colombia’s leadership towards fairer mineral value chains is a welcome step,” she told Climate Home News.
“At UNEA7, we need an ambitious debate that gives the proposed expert group a clear mandate to advance concrete next steps — not delay decisions — and that puts the voices of those most affected at the centre. One thing is clear: the path forward must ultimately deliver a binding instrument, as yet another voluntary initiative simply won’t cut it,” she said.
More than 50 civil society groups spanning Latin America, Africa and Europe previously described Colombia’s work on the issue as “a chance to build a new global paradigm rooted in environmental integrity, human rights, Indigenous Peoples’ rights, justice and equity”.
“As the energy transition and digitalisation drive demand for minerals, we cannot afford to repeat old extractive models built on asymmetry – we must redefine them,” they wrote in a statement.
Main image: The UN Environment Assembly is hosted in Nairobi, Kenya. (Natalia Mroz/ UN Environment)
The post Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement appeared first on Climate Home News.
Colombia proposes expert group to advance talks on minerals agreement
If you’re young, pregnant and Latina, chances are you live near agricultural fields sprayed with higher levels of brain-damaging organophosphate pesticides.
A baby in the womb has few defenses against industrial petrochemicals designed to kill.
California Sanctions Stark Disparities in Pesticide Exposure During Pregnancy
Climate Change
DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Shattered climate consensus
FRACKING BAN: UK energy secretary Ed Miliband has announced that the government will bring forward its plans to permanently ban fracking, in a move designed to counter a promise from the hard-right Reform party to restart efforts to introduce the practice, the Guardian said. In the same speech, Miliband said Reform’s plans to scrap clean-energy projects would “betray” young people and future generations, the Press Association reported.
ACT AXE?: Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservatives, pledged to scrap the 2008 Climate Change Act if elected, Bloomberg reported. It noted that the legislation was passed with cross-party support and strengthened by the Conservatives.
‘INSANE’: Badenoch faced a backlash from senior Tory figures, including ex-prime minister Theresa May, who called her pledge a “catastrophic mistake”, said the Financial Times. The newspaper added that the Conservatives were “trailing third in opinion polls”. A wide range of climate scientists also condemned the idea, describing it as “insane”, an “insult” and a “serious regression”.
Around the world
- CLIMATE CRACKDOWN: The US Department of Energy has told employees in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to avoid using the term “climate change”, according to the Guardian.
- FOREST DELAY: Plans for Brazil’s COP30 flagship initiative, the tropical forests forever fund, are “suffer[ing] delays” as officials remain split on key details, Bloomberg said.
- COP MAY BE ‘SPLIT’: Australia could “split” the hosting of the COP31 climate summit in 2026 under a potential compromise with Turkey, reported the Guardian.
- DIVINE INTERVENTION: Pope Leo XIV has criticised those who minimise the “increasingly evident” impact of global warming in his first major climate speech, BBC News reported.
€44.5 billion
The cost of extreme weather and climate change in the EU in the last four years – two-and-a-half times higher than in the decade to 2019, according to a European Environment Agency report covered by the Financial Times.
Latest climate research
- Fossil-fuelled climate change caused around 36% of Typhoon Ragasa’s direct damage to homes and properties in southern China, according to a rapid impact attribution study | Imperial Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment
- Some 86% of the global population are concerned about climate change, according to a survey of 280,000 people in 142 countries and regions | Climate Policy
- A global shift towards a “planetary health diet” could slash emissions and save tens of thousands of lives each day | EAT-Lancet Commission 2025 report
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Clean energy has met 100% of Great Britain’s electricity demand for a record 87 hours this year so far, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This is up from just 2.5 hours in 2021 and 64.5 hours in all of 2024. The longest stretch of time where 100% of electricity demand was met by clean energy stands at 15 hours, from midnight on 25 May 2025 through to 3pm on 26 May, according to the analysis.
Spotlight
‘Overshoot’ unknowns
As the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5C dwindle, there is increasing focus on the prospects for “overshooting” the Paris Agreement target and then bringing temperatures back down by removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
At the first-ever Overshoot Conference in Laxenburg, Austria, Carbon Brief asks experts about the key unknowns around warming “overshoot”.
Sir Prof Jim Skea
Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and emeritus professor at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy
So there are huge knowledge gaps around overshoot and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As it’s very clear from the themes of this conference, we don’t altogether understand how the Earth would react in taking CO2 out of the atmosphere.
We don’t understand the nature of the irreversibilities and we don’t understand the effectiveness of CDR techniques, which might themselves be influenced by the level of global warming, plus all the equity and sustainability issues surrounding using CDR techniques.
Prof Kristie Ebi
Professor at the University of Washington’s Center for Health and the Global Environment
There are all kinds of questions about adaptation and how to approach effective adaptation. At the moment, adaptation is primarily assuming a continual increase in global mean surface temperature. If there is going to be a peak – and of course, we don’t know what that peak is – then how do you start planning? Do you change your planning?
There are places, for instance when thinking about hard infrastructure, [where overshoot] may result in a change in your plan – because as you come down the backside, maybe the need would be less. For example, when building a bridge taller. And when implementing early warning systems, how do you take into account that there will be a peak and ultimately a decline? There is almost no work in that. I would say that’s one of the critical unknowns.
Dr James Fletcher
Former minister for public service, sustainable development, energy, science and technology for Saint Lucia and negotiator at COP21 in Paris.
The key unknown is where we’re going to land. At what point will we peak [temperatures] before we start going down and how long will we stay in that overshoot period? That is a scary thing. Yes, there will be overshoot, but at what point will that overshoot peak? Are we peaking at 1.6C, 1.7C, 2.1C?
All of these are scary scenarios for small island developing states – anything above 1.5C is scary. Every fraction of a degree matters to us. Where we peak is very important and how long we stay in this overshoot period is equally important. That’s when you start getting into very serious, irreversible impacts and tipping points.
Prof Oliver Geden
Senior fellow and head of the climate policy and politics research cluster at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and vice-chair of IPCC Working Group III
[A key unknown] is whether countries are really willing to commit to net-negative trajectories. We are assuming, in science, global pathways going net-negative, with hardly any country saying they want to go there. So maybe it is just an academic thought experiment. So we don’t know yet if [overshoot] is even relevant. It is relevant in the sense that if we do, [the] 1.5C [target] stays on the table. But I think the next phase needs to be that countries – or the UNFCCC as a whole – needs to decide what they want to do.
Prof Lavanya Rajamani
Professor of international environmental law at the University of Oxford
I think there are several scientific unknowns, but I would like to focus on the governance unknowns with respect to overshoot. To me, a key governance unknown is the extent to which our current legal and regulatory architecture – across levels of governance, so domestic, regional and international – will actually be responsive to the needs of an overshoot world and the consequences of actually not having regulatory and governance architectures in place to address overshoot.
Watch, read, listen
FUTURE GAZING: The Financial Times examined a “future where China wins the green race”.
‘JUNK CREDITS’: Climate Home News reported on a “forest carbon megaproject” in Zimbabwe that has allegedly “generated millions of junk credits”.
‘SINK OR SWIM’: An extract from a new book on how the world needs to adapt to climate change, by Dr Susannah Fisher, featured in Backchannel.
Coming up
- 7 October: International Energy Agency (IEA) renewables 2025 report launch
- 8-10 October: World summit of Indigenous peoples and nature, Abu Dhabi, UAE
- 9-15 October: International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 2025 congress, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Pick of the jobs
- UK government foreign, commonwealth and development office, senior climate policy adviser | Salary: CA$93,207. Location: Calgary, Canada
- Wellcome Trust, senior research manager, climate and health | Salary: £64,800. Location: London
- Bloomberg, product manager – climate, nature and sustainability regulations | Salary: Unknown. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 3 October 2025: UK political gap on climate widens; Fossil-fuelled Typhoon Ragasa; ‘Overshoot’ unknowns appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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