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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

New EU-China climate statement

CLIMATE STATEMENT: European Council president António Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen signed an EU-China agreement on climate with Chinese premier Li Qiang at today’s EU-China summit, following a meeting with President Xi Jinping. (The Chinese version calls the statement a “joint statement”, while in the EU version it is a “joint press statement”). In it, the two sides “agree to demonstrate leadership together to drive a global just transition” and promote “ambitious, equitable, balanced and inclusive outcomes” at COP30. The statement also highlighted an agreement to “facilitat[e] access to quality green technologies and products, so that they can be available, affordable and beneficial for all countries, including the developing countries”.

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NO LANGUAGE ON COAL: According to a commission press release, the EU “reiterated its commitment to…enhance” climate cooperation with China, plus “encouraged China to propose an ambitious plan for its emission reductions up to 2035 and to step up its international finance contributions”. This echoed earlier comments to Reuters by EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra that China must “take more of a leadership role” on climate action and “move out of the domain of coal”. However, the joint statement itself did not contain any language on coal. According to the statement, focuses for bilateral cooperation include the “energy transition, adaptation, methane emissions management and control, carbon markets and green and low-carbon technologies”, with the commission press release noting that the two sides had “intensive engagement” on emissions trading systems and the “circular economy” over the past 18 months.

CLEAN-TECH TENSIONS: The commission press release also noted that “current trade relations remain critically unbalanced”, with no further details on an expected agreement on electric vehicles. In an earlier meeting, according to state news agency Xinhua, Xi told his counterparts that “China and the EU should deepen green and digital partnerships and promote mutual investment cooperation”. It said he added: “It is hoped that the European side will keep trade and investment markets open, refrain from using restrictive economic and trade tools, and provide a favorable business environment for Chinese enterprises to invest and prosper in Europe.”

MEANS OF PRODUCTION: Earlier, China had issued “new restrictions” on technologies crucial to manufacturing electric vehicle (EV) batteries, reported the New York Times, with government licenses required for “any overseas transfer”. Cory Combs, head of supply chain research at consultancy Trivium China, told Carbon Brief: “My expectation is that Beijing will clear major Chinese producers to use their own tech in their own overseas facilities, but not to license to foreign competition”. He added that these restrictions were less likely to “impede climate cooperation” compared to the “massively disruptive” controls on exports of minerals and gallium metal extraction technologies.

Controversial ‘megadam’ launched

MEGADAM: Premier Li Qiang launched a “megadam” project, which is “expected to be the world’s largest hydroelectric facility”, on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, reported the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP). It added that the project, which raised significant concerns when proposed earlier this year, could provide 300 terawatt-hours of electricity – “three times that of the Three Gorges dam” and roughly the same as the UK’s entire output. According to the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily, Li “described [the dam] as a project of the century”, adding that “special emphasis must be placed on…prevent[ing] environmental damage”. The project could also help “bolster economic growth as current drivers show signs of faltering”, Reuters said. (See below.)

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POWER ‘TORRENT’: Elsewhere, China has completed a 4,000km power transmission project in the Taklaman desert that will “create a torrent of green power” from renewable-energy rich Xinjiang province, according to Xinhua. The new infrastructure, which took 15 years to build, will “double transmission distance and boost transmission capacity” to three gigawatts (GW), allowing “connections to other regional power grids for long-distance power transmission”, SCMP reported. Separately, nationwide installations of solar capacity in June reached 14GW, down 36% year-on-year and down from 93GW of new solar in May, BJX News said.

INTER-GRID TRADING: Regulators approved a proposal by China’s two major grid companies to develop “routine power-trading” between different operators in China, BJX News reported, with the aim of strengthening China’s power supply. Business news outlet Jiemian said that, according to the grid operators’ plan, regulators will focus on “listed trading” (挂牌交易) of low-carbon electricity between specific provinces. A government official told industry outlet International Energy Net that the move was partially driven by the need to manage the integration of large amounts of new renewable energy capacity into the grid.

Clean-tech a key growth driver

LEADING THE PACK: According to an official at China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s “new-three” industries “continue to maintain high growth rates”, China Environment News reported. The climate-related news outlet quoted an NBS official stating that China’s new-energy vehicle (NEV) industry grew 36% and the lithium-ion battery industry grew 53% in the first half of 2025, compared to overall economic growth of just over 5%. Meanwhile, the number of patents generated by clean-tech companies has “doubled” since 2020, with “53,000 invention patents granted” in 2024, according to the state-run newspaper China Daily.

‘GREEN FINANCE’: China has released a catalogue clarifying which projects can receive “green finance”, reported BJX News, noting that the list includes manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries and other “power-industry equipment projects”. The catalogue “serves as a reference for the future issuance of green loans and green bonds” and should “boost liquidity in the green finance market”, according to China Daily.

NEW PLAYBOOK: A high-level meeting on “urban work” attended by President Xi Jinping ended by pledging that the “focus [of China’s housing industry] will be directed toward building green, low-carbon and beautiful cities”, state news agency Xinhua reported. Reuters said that the meeting underscored that China is “abandoning [a strategy of] breakneck urban growth that once super-charged its economy”. Output of the heavily polluting steel, cement and glass industries fell in June, driven by China’s ongoing housing industry slump, according to Bloomberg, although it noted “hot weather” had limited construction activity. 

Captured

Bar chart: China's BRI 'energy engagement' in H1 2025 is already higher than the 2024 total

China’s energy-related investment and construction in “belt and road initiative” member states during the first half of 2025 (H1 2025) has already exceeded similar “engagement” in the whole of 2024, according to a new report. Clean-energy engagement in H1 2025 – particularly solar, wind and waste-to-energy – “reached new records” compared to the same period in previous years. Report author Prof Christoph Nedopil Wang told Carbon Brief that high oil and gas activity was “mostly explained by a single large gas-related construction project in Nigeria”, with clean-energy power outweighing fossil fuels in terms of newly added generation capacity.

Spotlight

Chinese clean-tech exports to cut emissions equal to Spain’s footprint

New analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, finds that the low-carbon technologies exported by China in 2024 alone could cut emissions overseas by 220m tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2), roughly equivalent to Spain’s total annual CO2 output.

This issue features an abridged version of the analysis, which is available in full on Carbon Brief’s website.

China’s output of clean-energy technologies is enabling rapid deployment around the world, but their production is energy- and carbon-intensive.

Nevertheless, these clean-tech exports are having immediate global climate benefits – contradicting many commentaries linking China’s clean-tech boom to the sharp rise in its emissions.

Specifically, manufacturing clean-energy equipment for export resulted in an estimated 110MtCO2 of emissions in 2024, or just 1.1% of China’s CO2 from fossil fuels. Yet the solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles (EVs) and wind turbines exported in 2024 will avoid an estimated 220MtCO2 annually when put into operation overseas.

Moreover, these products will continue to generate emissions savings for as long as they continue operating, avoiding a cumulative total of 4bn tons of CO2 across their lifetime.

Looking beyond direct equipment exports, overseas clean-energy investments announced by Chinese companies in 2023-24, such as solar panel manufacturing plants, will generate another 90MtCO2 of avoided emissions per year, once the projects have been built.

In addition, overseas clean-power generation projects announced by Chinese investors in 2023-24 would save another 40MtCO2 per year.

Overseas footprint

China’s clean-energy footprint spans essentially the entire world, but in terms of resulting emission reductions, the largest destinations for China’s overseas clean-energy activity are south Asia and the Middle East and north Africa (MENA) region.

This reflects both the large volumes of Chinese clean-technology activity reaching these countries and their highly carbon-intensive power grids, which means that installing new solar panels offsets high-emissions generation, for example.

On the manufacturing side, Saudi Arabia is the main destination, with a major EV production facility, two solar factories and one for wind turbines. There are also a total of five battery manufacturing projects in Morocco and Oman.

OECD Europe is the largest destination for China’s exports and overseas manufacturing investments by value. However, relative to the volume of exports, the resulting CO2 savings are smaller than in other major destinations, due to lower carbon intensity of power generation.

Another way to look at China’s clean-energy exports and investments is to consider where they have the biggest emissions impact, relative to the total CO2 output in each region.

On a relative basis, sub-Saharan Africa stands out, in addition to MENA.

China’s clean-energy exports in 2024 alone, as well as 2023-24 investments, are set to cut annual emissions in sub-Saharan Africa by around 3% per year. This indicates a rapid uptake of solar power in the region, relative to the size of the region’s electricity systems.

Downstream opportunity

In 2024, clean-energy industries contributed more than 10% of China’s GDP for the first time, underscoring the country’s dominant role in the global manufacturing of certain low-carbon technologies and reinforcing its strategic interest in the continuation and acceleration of the global clean-energy transition.

On the surface, this dominance may suggest that other countries have limited economic opportunities in clean energy.

However, China’s involvement in global supply chains is still largely limited to exports and manufacturing, while most of the value is downstream – in project development, system integration, installation and end-user services.

For example, in 2024, China exported $177bn worth of solar panels, EVs, batteries and wind turbines.

By contrast, the downstream value of overseas clean-energy products and projects relying on Chinese components is an estimated $720bn annually, four times the value of the exported raw components.

Watch, read, listen

AIR-CON DEMAND: China’s “two new” programme could encourage more consumers to trade in their air conditioners for more energy-efficient units, reducing cooling demand by 4.1% this summer, according to a new report by thinktank Ember.

WINNING STRATEGY: Volt Rush discussed how China – and other countries – made solar energy “one of the cheapest sources of power on Earth”.

MERZ’S CHOICE: A comment by three policy experts for Dialogue Earth said Germany could become a “vital broker between Europe and China”, but must “step up” engagement with China on climate.
ENERGY SECURITY: Bashir Bayo Ojulari, head of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, spoke with Xinhua about how other developing countries are “leveraging” China’s model of clean-energy growth coupled with a “reasonable mix of hydrocarbons”.


$7.6bn

The total economic losses caused by “natural disasters” in China in the first half of 2025, Reuters said, adding that “floods caused the most damage”. Regions across China have continued to suffer from extreme heat and deadly torrential rains over the past two weeks.


New science

Unveiling deployable rooftop solar potential across Chinese cities

Nature Cities

A new study on rooftop solar photovoltaics (RPV) in China found that “only 42% of the national technical potential is realistically deployable”. The paper assessed where RPV is deployable across 367 Chinese cities, considering factors including building type, “regional characteristics” and “policy limitations”. It found that, due to “regulatory factors”, deployable RPV is mainly found in urban public and industrial buildings, particularly in western, northern and central regions. They added that “to maximise value, initial deployment should prioritise public and industrial buildings in central and southern cities”.

Role of pumped hydro storage in China’s power system decarbonisation

The Electricity Journal
Developing 120GW of pumped hydro storage (PHS) – in line with China’s target for 2030 – will be “sufficient to balance electricity supply and demand by 2050” in the country, given expected growth in energy storage battery capacity, a new study said. The authors used a “high-resolution power system planning model” to assess the role of PHS in China’s power system. They argued that batteries are “emerging as a more economical solution” for energy storage compared to PHS, adding that “over-investment in PHS could lead to unnecessary electricity price inflation”.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel, with contributions from Ushika Kidd. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

The post China Briefing 24 July 2025: EU-China climate statement; World’s largest megadam; Clean-tech exports  appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 24 July 2025: EU-China climate statement; World’s largest megadam; Clean-tech exports 

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How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers

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Despite millions of dollars in grants and technical help for African businesses to power farming and other food production activities with renewable energy, most efforts remain stuck at the early stages because they struggle to find the investors, markets and expertise they need to grow.

This was the message from a coalition of global institutions working on energy, water and agriculture at this month’s Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, Rwanda.

“Energy, agriculture, water and nutrition actors rarely design solutions together,” the Agri-Energy Coalition said in a Call to Action on powering food systems with clean energy.

Using more renewables – especially solar power – to drive food systems would reduce food losses, ensure year-round availability and affordability of healthy foods, and improve productivity, income and resilience among farmers, food processors and other small enterprises, the coalition added.

In an interview with Climate Home News at the forum, Olamide Niyi-Afuye, CEO of the Africa Minigrid Developers Association (AMDA) – a body representing private-sector developers of small-scale, off-grid electricity systems across the continent – said its members are starting to recognise this interdependence and are increasingly considering businesses that combine energy with agricultural activities.

    This, Niyi-Afuye added, could lead to greater supply and use of clean power for key processes like irrigation, food processing and storage, creating new sources of revenue for both sectors.

    CHN: Conversations at the Africa Food Systems Forum highlighted how organisations working in energy and agriculture often operate in silos. What has hampered their collaboration, and how has that affected Africa’s economic development?

    A: Most mini-grid companies in Africa were primarily incentivised to achieve connections. If you look at some ongoing projects, you see a cost-per-connection model [of revenue]. When a subsidy is tied to achieving a connection, regardless of whether it is a productive connection, you might not notice the problem until five years down the line, when you realise the cash flows are not what you projected.

    Despite African walkout, fractious land COP ends without drought deal

    So now we’re in a “come-to-Jesus moment” as an industry, where we’re righting the wrongs and adjusting our business models to make sure companies do not go bust and there is some level of sustainability over the long term.

    The saying is not wrong that we’ve been working in our own silos because we’ve focused on the smaller things instead of the helicopter view. There needs to be cross-pollination [between the energy and agriculture sectors] because, if we are thinking about industrialisation, energy is a key driver of industrialisation. We will not achieve that if we’re not in the room and part of those conversations.

    CHN: Productive use of energy is intended to ensure electricity access goes beyond lighting homes to improving livelihoods, creating jobs and powering equipment. But what happens when farmers cannot afford the equipment they need to do that? How can energy, agriculture and equipment players work together to make the transition more accessible?

    A: That’s why we’re having conversations with companies set up to de-risk the agriculture sector. By leveraging that connection, we’re able to aggregate potential energy needs and develop instruments that make equipment more affordable through bulk procurement.

    We can have arrangements that make it easier for farmers and food producers to lease equipment and eventually own it over a period. There’s no real pressure to recover the capital very quickly because you’re looking at scale.

    Rice farmer Danjuma Okuwa adjusts his newly installed electric rice milling machine at his compound in Rukubi, Nasarawa, Nigeria, September 27, 2022. (Thomson Reuters Foundation/Afolabi Sotunde)

    Rice farmer Danjuma Okuwa adjusts his newly installed electric rice milling machine at his compound in Rukubi, Nasarawa, Nigeria, September 27, 2022. (Thomson Reuters Foundation/Afolabi Sotunde)

    There is a whole lot across the agricultural value chain that needs energy, from farming and harvesting to food processing and value-addition. We need to understand the energy needs across the value chain and bring our members in to provide solutions.

    Developers do not necessarily need to provide every productive-use solution themselves. They can partner with equipment suppliers, financiers, agribusinesses and other service providers to enable customers to use electricity productively. The objective is simple: do not just electrify communities; enable economic activity that uses that electricity.

    CHN: When Africa’s industrialisation is discussed, you hear things like renewables cannot provide enough baseload, while some food processors are sceptical about switching to renewable energy because of these concerns about reliability. What is your response?

    A: It’s not a controversial statement to say that a typical baseload is usually from the grid, and it’s usually from multiple sources including renewable energy. For large-scale operations, we can look at blending multiple sources of energy. But how do we solve the problem of a mid-sized farmer? We can solve it with a mini-grid using renewable energy.

    Comment: Every country needs a model to help optimise its energy transition

    If you go to a small farmer in a rural area, they don’t care about what source of energy they’re getting. They just want something that can help them get from A to B. If you look at the direct energy needs of farmers and food processors, I’m sure 90 percent of their consumption can be solved by renewable energy. Let’s start with that problem first. Then, as they scale, they might need to ramp up, and we can start talking about a bigger baseload.

    CHN: How much agricultural value is lost because farmers and food businesses lack reliable, affordable electricity?

    A: If you look at, for example, the fact that we need to maybe plant tomatoes or strawberries in Jos before it gets to Lagos [Nigeria], which most likely is by road, I can assure you that a good chunk, if not stored properly, would be bad by then. So the fact that we do not have energy is in itself a lost opportunity to maximise the potential of the agriculture sector. So until we’ve solved the energy problem, we will not salvage waste – and for me that is a lost opportunity.

    CHN: AGRA, an institution focused on scaling agricultural innovations to help smallholder farmers, estimates a massive shortfall between current investments in the continent’s food systems and what is actually needed to build a resilient, profitable agricultural economy – to the tune of $180 billion per year. Can integrating energy into food systems help bridge that gap?

    A: Yes – if energy can help unlock the potential to earn more money, investors will follow the money. Investments go where there is certainty, and until there is certainty around cash flow and revenue, investment will be limited.

    My vision is to see more Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) being signed between energy players and the agriculture sector. We can start by getting people into the room, understanding their pain points, crafting a framework and documentation that works for both parties, and then seeing deals happen.

    This interview was shortened and edited for clarity.

    The post How clean energy can boost business for Africa’s food producers appeared first on Climate Home News.

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    Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality

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    Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio is a senior advisor on adaptation and resilience with the United Nations Foundation and Mattias Söderberg is global climate lead at Danish NGO DanChurchAid.

    Recent extreme events – from wildfires and heatwaves in Europe to flash flooding following a glacier collapse in Nepal – have shocked and devastated communities, bringing years of warnings about such climate impacts to the doorstep of communities around the world.

    One thing is certain: the new climate reality is here – and the adaptation strategies designed for yesterday’s world are no longer sufficient.

    Attribution science has since shown that the hotter and more frequent heatwaves we’re experiencing around the world would have been virtually impossible without today’s high concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate shocks are now so severe that they reverberate through supply chains, food and water systems, financial markets and the movement of people.

      They must be a catalyst for a new way of thinking about adaptation and resilience, and how we finance solutions that work. A failure to invest in adaptation in one region can create costs far beyond it, which is why the concept of shared resilience is critical for leaders to grasp.

      Investment not charity

      At the UN General Assembly (UNGA 81) this month, leaders have an opportunity to translate today’s urgency into concrete commitments on adaptation and loss and damage finance ahead of COP31.

      Those commitments are needed to underpin global stability, shared prosperity and human security. Governments should use this moment to show what a new response looks like: finance that reaches communities faster, supports locally grounded solutions, strengthens national systems, and helps countries prepare before the next shock arrives.

      If we want sustained economic growth, food and water security, and resilient and prosperous societies across every region, adaptation must be at the heart of today’s development and security agenda. It cannot be just a future planning consideration or a narrow issue for climate ministries. Adaptation is now everyone’s business – and it must be financed fast and fair.

      UN Secretary-General António Guterres has repeatedly framed climate finance as an investment rather than charity, warning that “a world in climate chaos cannot be a world at peace” and describing human security as freedom from the chronic and sudden disruptions that climate change multiplies.

      What’s more, adaptation delivers a real return-on-investment, with researchers estimating that every dollar invested produces $10 in benefits, saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and reducing the costs of future disasters.

      Hitting adaptation limits

      The urgency to scale adaptation systematically is growing. The newly released “Limiting Overshoot” report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) confirms what scientists have long warned: exceeding global warming of 1.5C is now unavoidable under current policies. Yet, how high temperatures rise – and how long the world remains above the 1.5C threshold – will determine whether communities, economies and entire ecosystems can keep pace.

      There are limits to adaptation. When we breach those limits, lives and livelihoods are lost, and people and ecosystems suffer greatly. We cannot simply build yesterday’s infrastructure a little stronger and assume it will be enough.

      Nepal flood destruction shows “limits to adaptation”, scientists say

      We need to fundamentally change the systems that determine how societies anticipate, absorb and recover from both immediate and evolving non-linear climate shocks. This includes transforming physical systems, such as infrastructure, and the governance systems that affect where and how we live to how we maintain our health and wellbeing.

      Finance today is nowhere near the scale of the challenge.

      The UNEP “Adaptation Gap Report 2025” estimates the shortfall in adaptation finance in developing countries at $284 billion–$339 billion a year – roughly 12 to 14 times current international public flows of around $26 billion. That gap is a development, economic and human security problem, especially for the most vulnerable populations who have contributed the least to causing the climate crisis.

      Building resilience into financial systems

      There are already signs of what a more systemic adaptation response could look like. Communities around the world are delivering practical solutions at local level, even as adaptation finance remains notoriously, and appallingly, difficult to access. Cyclone-resistant homes, local forecasting capacities, drought-resistant crops, heat insurance for pregnant informal workers and mangrove restoration are rooted in local knowledge and lived experience, while delivering benefits far beyond the communities where they originate from.

      But local innovation alone is not enough; the systems around it need to be resilient too.

      Jamaica offers one example. The country has built a multi-layered disaster-risk financing framework, including a catastrophe bond and contingency funds, through sustained fiscal discipline and proactive investment. Its debt-to-GDP ratio fell from around 147% in 2012 to around 62% in 202-25. That groundwork matters when disaster strikes.

      Hurricane Melissa’s destruction shows need for climate resilience push

      Following Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica was able to secure billions of dollars in reconstruction financing from multilateral banks – finance that might otherwise have been much harder to access. The lesson is clear: resilience can be built into the financial architecture of a country before a crisis arrives. That is the shift we now need to make at scale.

      The foundations already exist – in Kingston’s fiscal reforms, in early-warning systems from the Sahel to the Pacific, and in every community that adapted before disaster struck. What is still missing is the political will, and the finance, to take what works and put it to work everywhere, at the speed our world’s new climate reality demands.

      To hear more on this issue from high-level officials and experts, sign up for this event during Climate Week NYC, at 8am EDT on September 24 (in person or online), moderated by Climate Home News Editor Megan Rowling: Adapting to the New Climate Reality: Why Accelerating Impacts Demand New Responses.

      The post Human security relies on adapting to the world’s new climate reality appeared first on Climate Home News.

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      Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous

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      Lidy Nacpil is the coordinator of Asian Peoples’ Movement on Debt and Development (APMDD).

      Recent reporting on international climate negotiations has highlighted a sharpening divide within civil society and multilateral diplomacy. A troubling, simplistic narrative has taken root: that the UN climate process is witnessing a binary struggle between defenders of science and those attacking it.

      This framing is not only inaccurate; it is dangerous. Characterising a substantive methodological and political debate in these terms misdiagnoses the stakes and stirs conflict instead of clarity.

      No one disputes that climate action must rest on science. Science tells us what has led us to the climate crisis – the accumulation of historical emissions – and how much carbon budget remains if we are to keep temperature rise below 1.5C. It tells us how much global emissions must drop, and how fast. Science is also essential in assessing each country’s historical contribution to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

      Responsibility, however, must also be based on capacity. For those who generated the largest share of historical emissions, that capacity includes the enormous wealth and economic power accumulated through the same fossil-fuel-intensive development that generated those emissions.

      As science comes under attack at UN talks, climate movement splits over how to respond

      While principles that should guide human action aren’t scientific questions – they are matters of values – applying them to real-world problems requires scientific grounding. Equity recognises the scientifically established reality of differentiated responsibilities among countries and within societies. Putting equity into practice demands scientific rigour.

      Scrutiny of IPCC models

      Today, critics are scrutinising the assumptions and frameworks behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), used to project future scenarios and map global mitigation pathways. These concerns centre squarely on equity and justice.

      The economic, technological and policy assumptions used in IAM scenarios are normative choices rather than scientifically prescribed or neutral facts. These include choices about discount rates, economic growth, energy demand, technology costs, carbon prices, land availability and the regional location of mitigation. Many IAM scenarios reproduce existing global inequalities rather than transform them. Questions about transparency, representativeness and diversity in the scientific process are deeply urgent.

      Most IAM scenarios are built primarily around global cost-effectiveness – directing emissions reductions to places where mitigation is modelled as cheapest rather than allocating effort according to historical responsibility, capacity and development needs.

      The resulting pathways allow developed countries to retain disproportionately high levels of energy and fossil-fuel consumption while requiring developing countries to undertake substantial mitigation and carbon removal, including land-based measures that threaten food security and local development.

      Northern models often assume uniform access to cheap financing. In reality, Global South economies face far higher capital costs, driving up the price tag of rapid infrastructure shifts.

      Constraints on development space

      Scenario constraints also limit the development space poorer nations need without guaranteeing adequate climate finance. When models treat profoundly unequal starting points as uniform baselines, policy pathways lock in global inequality under the banner of scientific objectivity.

      Pointing out these structural flaws isn’t rejecting science. It is essential scientific scrutiny aimed at producing stronger, fairer, and more actionable results.

      Science ‘under attack’ from fossil fuel interests at UN climate talks

      The fight is not about whether we want to keep temperature rise below 1.5C, but about how we get there. A pathway can be technically compatible with 1.5C or 2C while still being deeply unequal in who gets to consume energy, who must reduce emissions, and whose development is constrained. Temperature compatibility alone does not make a pathway fair.

      Critiquing IAM scenarios from an equity perspective is neither an attack on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nor an attack on science. Rigorously examining IPCC reports – their substance, assumptions, and processes – is an acknowledgement of the IPCC’s importance and entirely consistent with scientific method.

      Tensions over AR7 timing

      There is a separate but related tension over the cycle and timeline of the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). Some governments and civil society voices advocate completing its Working Group reports in time to feed directly into the UN’s Second Global Stocktake in 2028.

      The motivation makes sense: policymakers need timely science. But several developing-country negotiators and researchers have warned that meeting that deadline could severely disadvantage the Global South.

      Funding gap threatens next round of IPCC climate science reports, chair warns

      Global North authors and institutions remain disproportionately represented in the research underlying IAM assessments. Developing-country researchers often work with fewer institutional resources, smaller research budgets, and less administrative support. Accelerated publishing and assessment schedules can further limit their ability to generate, submit, and peer-review research in time for inclusion.

      The AR7 timeline concerns boil down to inclusivity, representation, and equity. Requiring the IPCC to meet tight political calendars without ensuring meaningful support and participation for developing-country researchers risks reproducing the very inequalities being challenged.

      Cooperation requires equity

      Political interests are indeed at work in UNFCCC negotiations and must be surfaced. Bad-faith actors seek to evade fossil-fuel phase-outs or shirk climate-finance obligations. Many developed country parties are guilty of both, including those who style themselves as “Friends of Science.”

      We must not lump legitimate scientific critiques raised by several Global South researchers and many civil society organisations concerning representation, economic assumptions and fair-share accounting together with obstructionism. Doing so risks misrepresenting and delegitimising critical scientific work and Global South equity and justice perspectives.

      The climate movement is strongest when it aligns rigorous science with global equity and justice. Achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals requires robust science that fully integrates the experiences, economic realities and academic contributions of the Global South. Effective climate action also requires international cooperation, and without equity, such cooperation cannot be sustained. We do not have to choose between science and equity. We need both.

      The post Framing the climate science debate as a binary battle isn’t just wrong – it’s dangerous appeared first on Climate Home News.

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