One in three people in informal settlements in the global south live in floodplains and are at risk of a “disastrous flood”.
That is according to a new study published in Nature Cities, which measures the flood risk of global-south populations living in “slums” – as defined by UN-Habitat.
Using a combination of machine learning, satellite images, household surveys and socioeconomic data, the study finds that these slum populations are often concentrated in regions that have recently or frequently experienced severe floods.
Though large slum communities are vulnerable to floods, limited locational choices often mean that inhabitants have nowhere else to go, according to the study.
The research reveals the consequences of socioeconomic challenges when compounded with environmental pressures driven by urbanisation.
Dr Gode Bola, a water risk and climate scientist at the Congo Basin Water Resources Research Centre, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief:
“Slums in the Congo Basin used to face flooding to an extent that communities could deal with. Rainfall, which is where climate change is coming in, has meant people are facing larger floods and it’s difficult for people to adapt.”
Hotspots and vulnerability
According to the UN definition used by the study, slum households are those in urban areas that lack at least one of the following: “durable housing, sufficient living space, easy access to safe water, adequate sanitation and security of tenure.”
Using this, the study estimates that at least 17% of the global-south population, equivalent to more than 880 million people, live in slums. For some countries, such as Sierra Leone and Liberia, a majority of the population live in slums, the authors note.
Many of these slum communities are situated in areas that face substantial flood exposure. The study identifies northern India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Rwanda and the coastal regions of Rio de Janeiro as notable hotspots – as the map below illustrates:
Beyond physical exposure, these communities face social vulnerabilities that are exacerbated by flooding. Poor infrastructure, limited access to social services and a lack of institutional support impede effective responses to floods in these areas, the study finds.
At 80%, sub-Saharan Africa has the highest proportion of slum populations living in floodplains, the study finds.
Despite these challenges, relocation opportunities for people living in slums are slim. Financial constraints and reduced access to employment make it difficult to move to safer areas. Flood zones often offer cheaper land or housing, which pushes poorer households into vulnerable areas, the study finds.
For example, flood-prone areas in Mumbai in India, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Jakarta in Indonesia are considered “low value”, the authors say, making it more accessible to those in urban areas with lower incomes.
Nevertheless, the need for housing and an income continue to draw people to these flood-risk zones, separate research suggests.
Bola tells Carbon Brief:
“These slums are less expensive and poor people can afford the land. They buy this plot of land for life and asking them to relocate is asking them to have savings to buy another plot when there are no loans or government assistance.”
Disastrous floods
The authors mapped where slum populations are concentrated and where disastrous floods have historically occurred across 129 countries in the global south.
Disastrous floods were categorised in the study as events that resulted in “severe societal disruption, often leading to fatalities and severe humanitarian consequences”.
Their findings showed that, across the global south, those living in slums make up 35% of the total population, but account for 41% of those who live in flood-prone areas. This suggests that slum residents are more likely to settle in flood-risk areas in comparison to non-slum residents.
In fact, the study finds that in countries which often face disastrous floods, such as Bangladesh, slum residents are overrepresented in nearly all areas where disastrous floods have occurred.
Rourkela and Kinshasa’s slums
Floods in Rourkela, India, and Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, in recent months illustrate the issue of slums being situated in floodplains.
Heavy monsoon downpours caused floods in slum settlements in Rourkela, while floods and landslides devastated 13 communes in Kinshasa’s urban slums, resulting in 165 deaths.
In Kinshasa, rapid urban growth is pushing development into floodplains without proper infrastructure, making floods worse and recovery harder, according to a recent article by researchers. As a result, healthcare systems and transportation are routinely damaged.
In India, separate research suggests that slum settlements are prone to flooding because many are in low-lying areas on the periphery of water bodies, without proper storm-water drainage.
According to the new study, rapid urbanisation and land pressures will likely drive even more slum populations into flood zones in the global south, indicating that the cases of Rourkela and Kinshasa could become an even more frequent reality.
Flood protection
The “intensifying” effects of climate change amplifies the need to address the location of slums in the global south, the authors state.
However, other research has shown that minimal policies to support slum communities in flood zones exist. Yet, as rapid urbanisation occurs, slums continue to spread into high-risk areas.
Poor governance has failed to recognise the rights and needs of the urban poor in city planning, according to research from Cities Alliance.
The study in Nature Cities mentions that governments are often politically reluctant to formally recognise slums because doing so could increase pressure to deliver services, complicate future development plans or damage the international image of the city or country.
Dr Nausheen Anwar, director of Karachi Urban Lab and principal researcher and urban climate resilience lead at the International Institute for Environment and Development, tells Carbon Brief about the government response to flooding of informal settlements in Karachi in 2022.
Anwar, who was not involved in the new study, says:
“People were living alongside the banks of those specific channels and were quickly labelled as encroachers, even though many of them had tenure in these informal settlements and the supreme court essentially backed the entire plan for eviction. This is where the role of the law became very effective in displacing people and razing their homes.”
The authors of the study say their findings can be used to inform data-driven policies that address flood risk, as well as to help shape local regulations.
In the study, they call for governments to recognise the inequalities that slum populations face and to acknowledge slum communities as key stakeholders. This would mean considering their needs and interests when designing policies to respond to climate change.
The authors also suggest that communities be empowered through capacity building, including training in sanitation and waste management.
Anwar adds:
“Data speaks for itself whether it comes in the form of numbers or is quantitative or qualitative…We need that to buttress the sort of changes we want to make on ground in terms of influencing policy agendas and planning interventions, whether it is at the local scale or going up even at the global scale.”
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Third of ‘slum residents’ in global south are exposed to ‘disastrous’ flood risks
A first set of biodiversity plans filed by countries to reverse nature loss are “insufficient” to meet this decade’s global targets, including a landmark goal to protect at least 30% of the world’s land and marine ecosystems by 2030, a landmark UN report warned on Thursday.
The State of Biodiversity Action, put together by a panel of technical experts for the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), was released in Yerevan, ahead of the COP17 nature talks starting on Monday in the Armenian capital.
Over the next two weeks, governments will for the first time take stock of progress towards the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) agreed in 2022 – a set of 23 targets also known as the “Paris Agreement for nature” – and will decide on policy guidelines for ramping up ambition before the 2030 deadline. The UN report will be the main basis for these negotiations.
At a press conference in Armenia, UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted that, while there has been some progress on the GBF, the “bad news” is that less than half of country plans are on track to meet its targets.
If current commitments are met by the end of the decade, only 26% of land ecosystems and 12% of marine ecosystems will be protected – falling “real short” of the 30% target agreed in Montreal in 2022, Guterres said. “The war on nature has not yet ended,” he added.
UN Environment chief Inger Andersen said the report “sets the tone for the focus, ambition and urgent action we need to deliver” in Armenia, including by reducing subsidies that harm nature and mobilising new finance for biodiversity. “All leaders and all negotiators must respond to these findings,” she emphasised.
Andersen added that climate change amplifies threats to biodiversity, which makes protection all the more important as global warming is now almost certain to rise above a key threshold. “Exceedence of 1.5C increases the likelihood of forest diebacks, phenological shifts, warming oceans that become more inhospitable to species, irreversible tipping points and so much more,” she said.
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Progress on land but ocean lags behind
The report shows that if countries meet all the biodiversity targets in their plans, this would protect about 27% of the world’s land and sea by 2030, a fivefold increase in the span of ten years.
Progress has been uneven, with most conservation efforts focused on terrestrial ecosystems. The report suggests that currently about 19% of land ecosystems are protected, up two percentage points from 2020, which UN authorities welcomed but said is not a fast enough pace.
However, the real gap is at sea, where only about 10% of the global ocean has some sort of protection. Coastal areas under national jurisdiction have done better, as currently 23% of this marine territory is protected, but the report shows most of the deep ocean is not.
Brian O’Donnell, director of Campaign for Nature, an advocacy group, said the new High Seas Treaty – which entered into force this year and will allow for the creation of Marine Protected Areas in the deep ocean – represents an opportunity, as only about 1.5% is under protection so far.
A group of environmental NGOs including WWF and Bloomberg Philanthropies has issued a call for governments to scale up ocean conservation and to designate $16 billion annually for marine protection measures, up from $1.8bn now.
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Some countries did not set a conservation target at all for both land and sea, the report says, blaming technical challenges like how to account for overlapping protected areas, difficulty recognising protections for private land and land-accounting methodologies changing over time.
A separate report by Campaign for Nature suggests that the 30×30 goal could still be met with “increased ambition and commitment”, and says that around 50 countries have already protected about 30% of their land.
A group of environmental NGOs has warned that, beyond the 30% headline figure, protected areas need to be “high integrity” and recognise the stewardship of local communities and Indigenous peoples.
Developing countries call for finance
Rich countries will arrive at COP17 with shrinking aid budgets and geopolitical preoccupations – yet they will likely hear the same plea they’ve heard for the past few years: stepping up commitments will require finance.
A submission by African countries in August said the “implementation gap” has at its core a shortfall in the provision of funds, and that bridging it will require predictable and accessible finance.
Pacific island nations launched a similar call, arguing there is “a treaty obligation” that developing countries, including themselves, will effectively implement commitments depending on the finance and technology made available by developed nations.
To close this gap, the EU made a proposal at preliminary talks in Nairobi in August to expand the base of donors so that richer developing countries could voluntarily assume donor responsibilities. Saudi Arabia and Qatar rejected the idea, while China said this should not weaken the responsibility of developed nations.
Pre-COP draws attention to Pacific’s climate plight and 1.5C goal
So far, wealthy governments have missed a target to provide $20bn per year in international public finance for nature protection by 2025, reaching only about $16bn per year from 2023 to 2025, according to an OECD report. By 2030, the GBF aims for developed countries to directly transfer $30bn per year, and mobilise $200bn from all sources.
The UN report released on Thursday shows even slower progress in redirecting harmful subsidies such as those which encourage the overuse of fertilisers and the production and consumption of new fossil fuels, and below-market fees that encourage overfishing. UN Environment estimates that for every dollar spent protecting nature, $30 goes on destroying it.
UN biodiversity chief Astrid Schomaker told journalists in Yerevan that “if you hear there is no finance, please do not believe it” because economies are continuing to grow. “It is being spent on activities that harm the economy rather than those that work with nature and sustain life on this planet,” she said.
Guterres said developed countries tend to say they are grappling with budget constraints due to increased defence expenditure, which “in my view does not justify a reduction” in international aid. He added that existing resources can be multiplied if they are used to mobilise private capital.
Campaigners, companies and the Armenian government want to shift the needle on this situation at COP17 by highlighting how positive subsidies help restore biodiversity. They will launch a flagship call to action that will be taken forward by countries and groups working to reform damaging incentives.
Global review: the main act
The Global Review of Collective Progress – a bit like the Global Stocktake for climate action – is set to be the most important outcome from COP17, and it will be the first time this process unfolds at the biodiversity talks. The actions decided in Yerevan will respond to the gaps outlined in the State of Biodiversity Action report and determine whether countries can turn the tide of biodiversity loss this decade.
Overall, the report shows that while countries have taken action to address all 23 targets in the GBF, none “present a fully positive picture”. A target to strengthen the resilience of ecosystems to climate impacts is the only one with high relative progress, the report says, as government have already made effective interventions that show “a positive trend”.
The report assessed each country’s national targets, which define their contribution to the global goals, as well as their separate National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans (NBSAPs) outlining how they will achieve the national targets.
But it does not paint a complete picture, since at the cut-off date, only 89 NBSAPs and national targets from 162 countries had been submitted, leaving out a couple of dozen plans that arrived late. Pacific island nations said this might undercount commitments.
Many of those lacking an NBSAP are biodiversity-rich developing countries, which say they need financial and technical support to fully develop these plans. Some large nations pending an NBSAP include South Africa, Bolivia and Russia.
Since the GBF was agreed in 2022, governments have mostly focused on developing their biodiversity targets and plans, while the lion’s share of implementation is expected to happen towards the end of the decade, according to UN biodiversity chief Schomaker.
But O’Donnell said “accelerated political ambition” is still needed to improve commitments and translate them into effective protection on the ground or at sea.
The post Countries urged to ramp up “insufficient” nature policies at COP17 appeared first on Climate Home News.
Countries urged to ramp up “insufficient” nature policies at COP17
Countries will meet in Armenia this month to carry out the first global review of progress towards meeting key nature targets by 2030.
These targets – and the wider ambition to halt and reverse biodiversity loss around the world – were agreed in the landmark Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in 2022.
But the ambitions will not be achieved in time for the 2030 deadline unless action “accelerates rapidly”, a key UN report found.
It noted that nations are falling short on 22 of 23 nature targets, which focus on restoring ecosystems, increasing nature finance and reducing harmful subsidies.
This report and other findings will inform the global progress review taking place at the COP17 biodiversity summit in Armenia over 19-30 October.
The sections below summarise the report’s findings on where progress has – and has not – been made on each of the 23 targets.
They also rank the extent to which countries have addressed elements of each target on a national basis. Click on each target for more information. Key terms are defined throughout each section and in a glossary below.
The post COP17: Tracking progress towards the UN’s 2030 nature targets appeared first on Carbon Brief.
https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/nature-targets-2030-progress/