One in three people in informal settlements in the global south live in floodplains and are at risk of a “disastrous flood”.
That is according to a new study published in Nature Cities, which measures the flood risk of global-south populations living in “slums” – as defined by UN-Habitat.
Using a combination of machine learning, satellite images, household surveys and socioeconomic data, the study finds that these slum populations are often concentrated in regions that have recently or frequently experienced severe floods.
Though large slum communities are vulnerable to floods, limited locational choices often mean that inhabitants have nowhere else to go, according to the study.
The research reveals the consequences of socioeconomic challenges when compounded with environmental pressures driven by urbanisation.
Dr Gode Bola, a water risk and climate scientist at the Congo Basin Water Resources Research Centre, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief:
“Slums in the Congo Basin used to face flooding to an extent that communities could deal with. Rainfall, which is where climate change is coming in, has meant people are facing larger floods and it’s difficult for people to adapt.”
Hotspots and vulnerability
According to the UN definition used by the study, slum households are those in urban areas that lack at least one of the following: “durable housing, sufficient living space, easy access to safe water, adequate sanitation and security of tenure.”
Using this, the study estimates that at least 17% of the global-south population, equivalent to more than 880 million people, live in slums. For some countries, such as Sierra Leone and Liberia, a majority of the population live in slums, the authors note.
Many of these slum communities are situated in areas that face substantial flood exposure. The study identifies northern India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Rwanda and the coastal regions of Rio de Janeiro as notable hotspots – as the map below illustrates:
Beyond physical exposure, these communities face social vulnerabilities that are exacerbated by flooding. Poor infrastructure, limited access to social services and a lack of institutional support impede effective responses to floods in these areas, the study finds.
At 80%, sub-Saharan Africa has the highest proportion of slum populations living in floodplains, the study finds.
Despite these challenges, relocation opportunities for people living in slums are slim. Financial constraints and reduced access to employment make it difficult to move to safer areas. Flood zones often offer cheaper land or housing, which pushes poorer households into vulnerable areas, the study finds.
For example, flood-prone areas in Mumbai in India, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Jakarta in Indonesia are considered “low value”, the authors say, making it more accessible to those in urban areas with lower incomes.
Nevertheless, the need for housing and an income continue to draw people to these flood-risk zones, separate research suggests.
Bola tells Carbon Brief:
“These slums are less expensive and poor people can afford the land. They buy this plot of land for life and asking them to relocate is asking them to have savings to buy another plot when there are no loans or government assistance.”
Disastrous floods
The authors mapped where slum populations are concentrated and where disastrous floods have historically occurred across 129 countries in the global south.
Disastrous floods were categorised in the study as events that resulted in “severe societal disruption, often leading to fatalities and severe humanitarian consequences”.
Their findings showed that, across the global south, those living in slums make up 35% of the total population, but account for 41% of those who live in flood-prone areas. This suggests that slum residents are more likely to settle in flood-risk areas in comparison to non-slum residents.
In fact, the study finds that in countries which often face disastrous floods, such as Bangladesh, slum residents are overrepresented in nearly all areas where disastrous floods have occurred.
Rourkela and Kinshasa’s slums
Floods in Rourkela, India, and Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, in recent months illustrate the issue of slums being situated in floodplains.
Heavy monsoon downpours caused floods in slum settlements in Rourkela, while floods and landslides devastated 13 communes in Kinshasa’s urban slums, resulting in 165 deaths.
In Kinshasa, rapid urban growth is pushing development into floodplains without proper infrastructure, making floods worse and recovery harder, according to a recent article by researchers. As a result, healthcare systems and transportation are routinely damaged.
In India, separate research suggests that slum settlements are prone to flooding because many are in low-lying areas on the periphery of water bodies, without proper storm-water drainage.
According to the new study, rapid urbanisation and land pressures will likely drive even more slum populations into flood zones in the global south, indicating that the cases of Rourkela and Kinshasa could become an even more frequent reality.
Flood protection
The “intensifying” effects of climate change amplifies the need to address the location of slums in the global south, the authors state.
However, other research has shown that minimal policies to support slum communities in flood zones exist. Yet, as rapid urbanisation occurs, slums continue to spread into high-risk areas.
Poor governance has failed to recognise the rights and needs of the urban poor in city planning, according to research from Cities Alliance.
The study in Nature Cities mentions that governments are often politically reluctant to formally recognise slums because doing so could increase pressure to deliver services, complicate future development plans or damage the international image of the city or country.
Dr Nausheen Anwar, director of Karachi Urban Lab and principal researcher and urban climate resilience lead at the International Institute for Environment and Development, tells Carbon Brief about the government response to flooding of informal settlements in Karachi in 2022.
Anwar, who was not involved in the new study, says:
“People were living alongside the banks of those specific channels and were quickly labelled as encroachers, even though many of them had tenure in these informal settlements and the supreme court essentially backed the entire plan for eviction. This is where the role of the law became very effective in displacing people and razing their homes.”
The authors of the study say their findings can be used to inform data-driven policies that address flood risk, as well as to help shape local regulations.
In the study, they call for governments to recognise the inequalities that slum populations face and to acknowledge slum communities as key stakeholders. This would mean considering their needs and interests when designing policies to respond to climate change.
The authors also suggest that communities be empowered through capacity building, including training in sanitation and waste management.
Anwar adds:
“Data speaks for itself whether it comes in the form of numbers or is quantitative or qualitative…We need that to buttress the sort of changes we want to make on ground in terms of influencing policy agendas and planning interventions, whether it is at the local scale or going up even at the global scale.”
The post Third of ‘slum residents’ in global south are exposed to ‘disastrous’ flood risks appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Third of ‘slum residents’ in global south are exposed to ‘disastrous’ flood risks
China’s rapidly-expanding clean energy generation and deepening electrification has made the country more resilient to energy shocks, bolstering its position ahead of the COP31 climate talks in Türkiye, where speeding up the world’s electrification is set to dominate.
The growth of China’s renewable energy capacity protected it from the economic fallout from the energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) published on Thursday.
As oil and gas stopped flowing through the key fossil fuel trade route, leading prices to soar, China’s crude oil imports – the largest in the world – fell sharply, leading the country to start drawing down on its reserves and curbing its exports of petroleum products.
“Yet, the import reduction did not produce the economic and social disruption in China one might normally expect from a shock of this scale,” the report found.
As temporary adjustment cushioned the oil-import shock, clean power and the electrification of the transport sector buffered the economic costs.
The rise of renewable energy and nuclear power have reduced China’s fossil fuel imports bill by more than $9 billion since 2020, more than any other country, according to CREA.
“China remains exposed to imported fuels, particularly where oil is used as a chemical feedstock, but reducing fossil-fuel demand already contributes to energy security,” said Qi Qin, the report’s author.
The view from Beijing: vindicated
CREA’s analysis found the roll-out of electric vehicles (EVs) displaced 38 million tonnes of oil equivalent between March and August, equivalent to around 13% of China’s crude oil imports in the same period the previous year.
China’s ongoing reliance on coal-fired power plants also protected the country against oil and gas supply disruptions, although coal power generation remained broadly flat in the six months since the start of the Iran war, according to the report.
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Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Climate home News that China’s all-of-the-above approach to energy development has provided the country with the strategic flexibility to face the oil shock.
“While China has often been criticised in previous years for moving too slowly away from coal, this year’s global energy market volatility has given Chinese policymakers a renewed sense of confidence. There is a growing sentiment in Beijing that recent events have vindicated China’s energy strategy as both prudent and pragmatic,” he said.
Can China support the electrification pledge?
Despite its vast cleantech build-out and rapid electrification boosting its energy resilience, China has stopped short of endorsing an initiative by COP31 host Türkiye to increase the global share of electricity to 35% in final energy use by 2035.
Li Gao, vice minister at the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, who will lead the Chinese delegation at COP31, told a press conference the electrification target was in line with Chinese policy. “We believe that increasing electrification levels will help promote a green and low-carbon energy transition and address climate change,” he said.
China’s position on the electrification initiative is one of the major questions hanging over the COP31 talks beginning in Antalya next week.
“What is clear is that China has the most to gain from accelerated electrification because of their manufacturing capabilities,” said Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance.
In 2026 alone, China’s exports of solar panels, batteries, EV and other cleantech are on track to avoid emissions equivalent to Brazil’s annual emissions.
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Campaigners and experts say the goal’s effectiveness in reducing emissions may be limited unless countries agree to meet it using only clean energy
Türkiye’s proposal doesn’t include a commitment to produce the power from clean energy, nor does it explicitly link electrification to the transition away from fossil fuels – issues on which the EU has signalled it is ready to push back.
But Chinese analysts say Beijing is unlikely to support linking a global electrification goal to commitments on phasing out fossil fuels.
Former French climate envoy Laurence Tubiana, the outgoing CEO of the European Climate Foundation, told Climate Home News that the EU and developed countries such as Brazil – which is influential within the BRICS group of large emerging economies – have a responsibility to push China to show leadership in the talks.
Driving the world’s electrification
The electrification of the Chinese economy has outpaced that of any other major economy.
In the US and the EU, the share of electrification has stagnated just above 20%. In China, it has doubled since 2005, reaching close to 30% in 2025.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects China will remain the single largest driver of global electricity demand growth through to 2030, as it electrifies its manufacturing sector as well as growing demand for cooling and EV charging.
Over the next five years, the IEA forecasts that China will increase its electricity consumption by as much as the total electricity consumption of the EU today.
In August, the Chinese government set a target to boost the share of electricity in its final energy consumption to 35% by 2030 – five years ahead of Türkiye’s proposed goal.
From laggard to frontrunner
Clean-power growth and electrification could meet all of China’s rising power demand, according to CREA. By 2030, this would mean renewable and nuclear energy could reach 54% of power generation – exceeding China’s target to generate half its electricity from non-fossil sources by the end of the decade.
Clean electricity already met all of China’s demand growth in 2025. “The challenge lies in sustaining such growth over several years,” said Qin.
From Beijing’s perspective, the global targets such as the electrification pledge “no longer appear particularly ambitious or threatening”, said Li, of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“China, long perceived as a climate laggard, is increasingly moving ahead of countries in the Global North. A global ceiling target is increasingly only a floor for China,” he emphasised.
The post Clean power shields China from oil shock more than any other country appeared first on Climate Home News.
Clean power shields China from oil shock more than any other country