Published

3 months ago

June 12, 2025

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Critical mineral ‘deal’

TRANSITION TURMOIL: US president Donald Trump said China and the US reached a “deal” after talks were held in London, reported the BBC News, adding that “he said China had agreed to supply US companies with magnets and rare earth metals”. Shortly after the announcement, a Chinese manufacturer confirmed that it received “export permits” to countries including the US, according to Bloomberg. China’s earlier move to impose export curbs on critical minerals had “hit” the global auto industry, said Reuters. In answering Carbon Brief’s question of how the recent mineral disputes may affect global energy transition, Tian Jietang, director-general of the research department of industrial economy at the Development Research Center of the State Council said that the minerals are a “very important factor” for “new energy” development, but the “reason” behind the turmoil is “not from China”. China is “always open” to cooperate with the world for “faster green transition”, he added at an Asia House event.

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‘FIRM’ CLIMATE ‘ACTIVIST’: Tian emphasised that China has always been a staunch contributor to global “green transition”. A similar line appeared in a comment article in the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily, which called China a “firm activist and important contributor to the world’s green development”. In another People’s Daily article, the newspaper explained that the “direct reason” behind China’s “insist[ence] on carbon reduction” is that “climate warming threatens human survival and the continuation of civilisation”. It added that such “green and low-carbon transition” is also good for China’s economy and society. China Daily said the US’s tariffs on “clean energy products”, on the contrary, are “negatively affecting both [the] US and global green energy”.

Renewable pricing shift

MARKET PRICE: China entered a ”new stage of market-based pricing” for renewables on 1 June, after a notification was issued earlier this year, reported local newspaper Beijing Daily. The newspaper said projects that started operating before June would be paid prices pegged to the local coal-fired electricity price, in line with the previous policy, whereas electricity prices from projects operating after June will not be “protected”. (See the Carbon Brief explainer on the new policy.) The Shanghai-based Paper said there had been a rush to complete renewable projects before the June deadline – new installations of solar in April alone soared by 215%. As of April, the total capacity of wind and solar reached 1,530 gigawatts (GW) in China, “surpassing” the capacity of thermal power, reported industry news outlet BJX News. However, some wind and solar projects have been halted as a result of the new policy, said financial publication Yicai. The outlet quoted an unnamed source saying the returns for some projects are “no longer economically feasible”.

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‘NEW ELECTRICITY SYSTEM’: Meanwhile, the plans to construct the “first batch of pilot projects” for a “new electricity system” was announced, reported BJX News. It added that according to a notification from the National Energy Administration (NEA), the pilot projects will focus on seven areas, including building “smart microgrids” and “virtual power plants”, better connecting clean energy “bases” to the rest of the country and developing “next-generation coal power”. Quoting experts, China Energy Net said that the success in building such a new system lies in transferring the current system from a “single” network to an “‘adaptability-early warning’ planning paradigm” over the next 15th “five-year plan” period (2026-30). The new system should be dominated by renewable energy and respond to risks, such as extreme weather, added the outlet. The NEA confirmed that “speeding up” plans for renewable energy over the next five-year plan period is one of its work priorities for the second half of the year, according to BJX News.

More plans issued as industry and oil set to drop

NEW SYSTEMS: China is aiming to build a “national standardised system for responding to climate change”, covering mitigation and adaptation, reported state news agency Xinhua. In an official Q&A, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) said that it led the drafting of the new system, issued jointly with 14 other departments. Separately, the Central Committee of the Communist party of China and the State Council said that China’s market-based approach to environmental issues, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions trading, should be “basically complete” by 2027, reported BJX News. This will include stronger links between the national emissions trading system (ETS) and related markets for “CCERs” and “GECs”, the outlet said. (The steel, cement and aluminium industries are being consulted over joining China’s national emissions trading system, ETS, according to a screenshot of a policy document circulating on social media. The document is not public, but its existence has been confirmed to Carbon Brief by multiple sources.)

INDUSTRY EMISSIONS: Meanwhile, the “national standards for product carbon footprints” for nine products, including electrolytic aluminium, chemical fibres and plastic, have been established, said the People’s Daily. It is estimated that the total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the industry sector could drop to 450m tonnes in 2060, down 95% from 2025, according to a joint report by the Tsinghua University, as well as Energy Foundation China and the Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning – a research institute under the MEE, reported China Science Daily.

FALLING OIL DEMAND: The overall demand for oil is set to decline in China, with the “faster adoption” of “new-energy vehicles” (NEVs) offsetting growth in other areas, reported state-run newspaper China Daily. The outlet added that NEVs and liquefied natural gas (LNG) heavy trucks played a “significant role” in reducing demand for “traditional fuels” in 2024. In addition, strong sales of electric trucks – boosted by government incentives – pushed down demand for diesel, which makes up over a quarter of Chinese oil demand, said Bloomberg. Another article by China Daily said that one incentive – the equipment trade-in policy – motivated more than 4m car trade-in applications between January and May 2025. It said more than half of applications in the first four months of the year were for NEVs. The total production and sales of NEV reached just under 6m units in the first five months of this year, a year-on-year increase of around 45%, reported Xinhua.

Extreme weather events

RAIN AND HEATWAVES: Yunnan province in southeast China was hit by “flash floods and mudslides” triggered by heavy rainfall, affecting around 5,000 residents, reported Reuters. Hunan province in the south also received pouring rain, which “seriously damaged” roads and power facilities, said state broadcaster CCTV. Heatwaves, in the meantime, swept northern China with temperatures in Hebei and Xinjiang province topping 40C, reported China National Emergency Broadcasting Center, a state-run media outlet. People’s Daily reported that the central government had allocated 45m yuan ($6.2m) of “natural disaster relief funds” to support flood control and disaster relief in Yunnan, a landslide in Tibet, and drought relief in Gansu and Ningxia.

11,000,000,000

The capacity of newly approved coal power plants in the first quarter of 2025 in watts – some 11 gigawatts (GW). This is 1GW more than the first six months of last year, according to a report from NGO Greenpeace, covered by Reuters. The newswire added that China had approved 289GW of new coal capacity over 2021-25 and that last year saw the first annual decline in approvals since 2021.

Spotlight

More than 100bn yuan poured into coal via ‘capacity payments’ in 2024

To date, there is no clear evidence that China’s coal “capacity payments” are helping coal-fired power plants to transfer into a “supporting role” with reduced output and emissions, according to a Carbon Brief guest post by Mingxin Zhang, coal researcher at Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

In the first year of the scheme, GEM finds that some 70-100% of China’s coal plants received payments totalling more than 100bn yuan ($14.8bn), boosting their revenues by around 5-8%.

In this issue, Carbon Brief highlights the key findings of the guest post. The full article is available on Carbon Brief’s website.

A ‘supporting’ role for coal

China rolled out a system of “capacity payments” in January 2024, with the aim of maintaining energy security while helping coal-fired power plants shift into a “supporting role”, alongside a growing share of variable renewables.

The mechanism essentially provides a monthly “standby” payment to eligible public coal plants, to help cover fixed operating costs during low production periods and to ensure that they are available to switch on during peak demand periods.

The national framework sets payment levels at either 30% or 50% of a benchmark coal plant’s total fixed costs, which was determined to be 330 yuan ($45.8) per kilowatt (kW).

To illustrate the mechanism’s impact, consider a 600 megawatt (MW) coal plant running at China’s 2024 average rates – operating for 4,628 hours a year and selling electricity at 0.452 yuan ($0.063) per kilowatt-hour (kWh).

If it receives a 30% capacity payment, roughly 59.4m yuan ($8.2m) would be added to its bank account, driving up the revenue by 4.7%. If the rate is at the 50% level, the bump rises to 7.9%.

Project year one

After one year of China’s programme, GEM’s analysis finds that, while the policy has contributed to coal power plant revenue, there is still little definitive evidence to show that it is helping coal plants reduce their operation, as intended.

Only 12 provincial governments – representing 38% of the country’s total operating coal capacity – have released lists of qualifying plants.

Based on the national policy’s payment levels and the 12 provincial recipient lists, the capacity payments in these provinces alone was more than 40bn yuan ($5.5bn).

Combining the total operating capacity and payment numbers from the 12 provinces that have published data with GEM’s most recent national capacity figures, the analysis estimates that the total national payout in 2024 was approximately 107bn yuan ($14.8bn).

(This figure is uncertain. Greater transparency would help clarify how the mechanism is functioning and its role in shaping the future of coal in China’s power system.)

Despite restrictions, most coal capacity is eligible

By cross-referencing provincial recipient lists with GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT), it is possible to estimate the share of each province’s coal capacity receiving payments.

In almost all of the 12 provinces that published recipient lists, 70-100% of coal capacity is eligible for payments.

The programme said that only “compliant, public operating coal units” are eligible for the capacity payments and excluded three categories:

“Captive” units, which exclusively serve specific industrial or commercial entities and operate independently from the public power grid;
Units failing to meet energy efficiency, environmental performance, or operational flexibility standards;
Units not compliant with the broader “national plan”, a criterion that is not further clarified in the guidelines.

In some cases, the scheme as implemented by individual provinces appears inconsistent with the eligibility criteria. For example, the Mancheng Mill power station in Hebei provides heat and power exclusively to a pulp and paper industrial park. This appears inconsistent with the “captive unit” exclusion.

Some newly built coal power plants and decades-old plants were also included. For example, Beihai Bebuwan power station Unit 4 in Guangxi began operating in March 2024 and was added to the recipient list in September 2024. Shenhua Panshan power station Units 1 and 2 in Tianjin began operating in 1994 and were retrofitted in 2023.

Finally, several provincial lists include smaller units, which may have limited ability to contribute to peak demand management. For example, five 57MW units from Shaoxing Binhai power station in Zhejiang were accredited for capacity payments.

Their actual contribution to evening peak load, when generation from solar and wind is low, is unclear from the list or other available provincial assessments.

Watch, read, listen

MINISTER’S COMMENT: Huang Runqiu, head of China’s MEE, penned an article about biodiversity for Qiushi, the Communist party’s leading magazine on ideology.

US NUCLEAR COMPONENT BAN: The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post published an analysis on China’s nuclear energy against the background of the US’s nuclear power controls.

CARON NEUTRALITY FORUM: A group of prominent Chinese scholars gathered in Shanghai and made speeches about China’s “dual-carbon goals”, according to the official WeChat account of the Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality of the Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

EV CCOMPETITION: BBC News international business correspondent Theo Leggett recorded a reading of his analysis of the expansion of Chinese cheap electric vehicles (EVs), as well as security concerns over them.

New science

Embracing the future, powering growth: An energy system renewed for China
Springer Nature

A book jointly written by oil major Shell and the Development Research Center of the State Council of China explored energy transition challenges and pathways in China. At the book’s launch event, attended by Carbon Brief, representatives from both organisations introduced the main arguments in the book, including challenges China faces in reaching its “dual-carbon” goals, its high reliance on coal and regional disparities between renewable energy resources and demands, as well as its commitment to reach carbon neutrality in just 30 years – a shorter timeline than most developed countries. The book outlines three “approaches” and five “supports”, including electrification, better carbon and electricity pricing, legal support and investing in energy storage, as well as other resources, such as hydrogen and nuclear.

A machine learning approach to carbon emissions prediction of the top eleven emitters by 2030 and their prospects for meeting Paris Agreement targets
Scientific Reports

China, India, Japan, Canada, South Korea and Indonesia are projected to miss their 2030 emissions reduction targets by “significant margins”, according to new research. The authors used a machine learning approach to analyse data from 1990-2023 from the 11 highest emitting countries. They found that Russia is on track to exceed its reduction targets, while Germany and the US will “fall slightly short”. Iran and Saudi Arabia are expected to increase emissions rather than reduce them, according to the study. The authors say that “emerging economies require international collaboration and investment to support low-carbon transitions”.

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China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 12 June 2025: Critical mineral exports; Electricity price; Coal ‘capacity payment’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 12 June 2025: Critical mineral exports; Electricity price; Coal ‘capacity payment’

Climate Change

DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report

Published

3 weeks ago

August 15, 2025

Alice Rush

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Blazing heat hits Europe

FANNING THE FLAMES: Wildfires “fanned by a heatwave and strong winds” caused havoc across southern Europe, Reuters reported. It added: “Fire has affected nearly 440,000 hectares (1,700 square miles) in the eurozone so far in 2025, double the average for the same period of the year since 2006.” Extreme heat is “breaking temperature records across Europe”, the Guardian said, with several countries reporting readings of around 40C.

HUMAN TOLL: At least three people have died in the wildfires erupting across Spain, Turkey and Albania, France24 said, adding that the fires have “displaced thousands in Greece and Albania”. Le Monde reported that a child in Italy “died of heatstroke”, while thousands were evacuated from Spain and firefighters “battled three large wildfires” in Portugal.

UK WILDFIRE RISK: The UK saw temperatures as high as 33.4C this week as England “entered its fourth heatwave”, BBC News said. The high heat is causing “nationally significant” water shortfalls, it added, “hitting farms, damaging wildlife and increasing wildfires”. The Daily Mirror noted that these conditions “could last until mid-autumn”. Scientists warn the UK faces possible “firewaves” due to climate change, BBC News also reported.

Around the world

GRID PRESSURES: Iraq suffered a “near nationwide blackout” as elevated power demand – due to extreme temperatures of around 50C – triggered a transmission line failure, Bloomberg reported.
‘DIRE’ DOWN UNDER: The Australian government is keeping a climate risk assessment that contains “dire” implications for the continent “under wraps”, the Australian Financial Review said.
EXTREME RAINFALL: Mexico City is “seeing one of its heaviest rainy seasons in years”, the Washington Post said. Downpours in the Japanese island of Kyushu “caused flooding and mudslides”, according to Politico. In Kashmir, flash floods killed 56 and left “scores missing”, the Associated Press said.
SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION: China and Brazil agreed to “ensure the success” of COP30 in a recent phone call, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
PLASTIC ‘DEADLOCK’: Talks on a plastic pollution treaty have failed again at a summit in Geneva, according to the Guardian, with countries “deadlocked” on whether it should include “curbs on production and toxic chemicals”.

15

The number of times by which the most ethnically-diverse areas in England are more likely to experience extreme heat than its “least diverse” areas, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.

Latest climate research

As many as 13 minerals critical for low-carbon energy may face shortages under 2C pathways | Nature Climate Change
A “scoping review” examined the impact of climate change on poor sexual and reproductive health and rights in sub-Saharan Africa | PLOS One
A UK university cut the carbon footprint of its weekly canteen menu by 31% “without students noticing” | Nature Food

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

Factchecking Trump’s climate report

A report commissioned by the US government to justify rolling back climate regulations contains “at least 100 false or misleading statements”, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists. The report, compiled in two months by five hand-picked researchers, inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed” and misleadingly states that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”80

Spotlight

Does Xi Jinping care about climate change?

This week, Carbon Brief unpacks new research on Chinese president Xi Jinping’s policy priorities.

On this day in 2005, Xi Jinping, a local official in eastern China, made an unplanned speech when touring a small village – a rare occurrence in China’s highly-choreographed political culture.

In it, he observed that “lucid waters and lush mountains are mountains of silver and gold” – that is, the environment cannot be sacrificed for the sake of growth.

(The full text of the speech is not available, although Xi discussed the concept in a brief newspaper column – see below – a few days later.)

In a time where most government officials were laser-focused on delivering economic growth, this message was highly unusual.

Forward-thinking on environment

As a local official in the early 2000s, Xi endorsed the concept of “green GDP”, which integrates the value of natural resources and the environment into GDP calculations.

He also penned a regular newspaper column, 22 of which discussed environmental protection – although “climate change” was never mentioned.

This focus carried over to China’s national agenda when Xi became president.

New research from the Asia Society Policy Institute tracked policies in which Xi is reported by state media to have “personally” taken action.

It found that environmental protection is one of six topics in which he is often said to have directly steered policymaking.

Such policies include guidelines to build a “Beautiful China”, the creation of an environmental protection inspection team and the “three-north shelterbelt” afforestation programme.

“It’s important to know what Xi’s priorities are because the top leader wields outsized influence in the Chinese political system,” Neil Thomas, Asia Society Policy Institute fellow and report co-author, told Carbon Brief.

Local policymakers are “more likely” to invest resources in addressing policies they know have Xi’s attention, to increase their chances for promotion, he added.

What about climate and energy?

However, the research noted, climate and energy policies have not been publicised as bearing Xi’s personal touch.

“I think Xi prioritises environmental protection more than climate change because reducing pollution is an issue of social stability,” Thomas said, noting that “smoggy skies and polluted rivers” were more visible and more likely to trigger civil society pushback than gradual temperature increases.

The paper also said topics might not be linked to Xi personally when they are “too technical” or “politically sensitive”.

For example, Xi’s landmark decision for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is widely reported as having only been made after climate modelling – facilitated by former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua – showed that this goal was achievable.

Prior to this, Xi had never spoken publicly about carbon neutrality.

Prof Alex Wang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor of law not involved in the research, noted that emphasising Xi’s personal attention may signal “top” political priorities, but not necessarily Xi’s “personal interests”.

By not emphasising climate, he said, Xi may be trying to avoid “pushing the system to overprioritise climate to the exclusion of the other priorities”.

There are other ways to know where climate ranks on the policy agenda, Thomas noted:

“Climate watchers should look at what Xi says, what Xi does and what policies Xi authorises in the name of the ‘central committee’. Is Xi talking more about climate? Is Xi establishing institutions and convening meetings that focus on climate? Is climate becoming a more prominent theme in top-level documents?”

Watch, read, listen

TRUMP EFFECT: The Columbia Energy Exchange podcast examined how pressure from US tariffs could affect India’s clean energy transition.

NAMIBIAN ‘DESTRUCTION’: The National Observer investigated the failure to address “human rights abuses and environmental destruction” claims against a Canadian oil company in Namibia.

‘RED AI’: The Network for the Digital Economy and the Environment studied the state of current research on “Red AI”, or the “negative environmental implications of AI”.

Coming up

17 August: Bolivian general elections
18-29 August: Preparatory talks on the entry into force of the “High Seas Treaty”, New York
18-22 August: Y20 Summit, Johannesburg
21 August: Advancing the “Africa clean air programme” through Africa-Asia collaboration, Yokohama

Pick of the jobs

Lancaster Environment Centre, senior research associate: JUST Centre | Salary: £39,355-£45,413. Location: Lancaster, UK
Environmental Justice Foundation, communications and media officer, Francophone Africa | Salary: XOF600,000-XOF800,000. Location: Dakar, Senegal
Politico, energy & climate editor | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels, Belgium
EnviroCatalysts, meteorologist | Salary: Unknown. Location: New Delhi, India

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 15 August 2025: Raging wildfires; Xi’s priorities; Factchecking the Trump climate report

Climate Change

New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit

Published

3 weeks ago

August 15, 2025

Alice Rush

The specter of a “gas-for-wind” compromise between the governor and the White House is drawing the ire of residents as a deadline looms.

By Deep Vakil

Hundreds of New Yorkers rallied against new natural gas pipelines in their state as a deadline loomed for the public to comment on a revived proposal to expand the gas pipeline that supplies downstate New York.

New York Already Denied Permits to These Gas Pipelines. Under Trump, They Could Get Greenlit

Climate Change

Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims

Published

3 weeks ago

August 14, 2025

Alice Rush

A “critical assessment” report commissioned by the Trump administration to justify a rollback of US climate regulations contains at least 100 false or misleading statements, according to a Carbon Brief factcheck involving dozens of leading climate scientists.

The report – “A critical review of impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the US climate” – was published by the US Department of Energy (DoE) on 23 July, just days before the government laid out plans to revoke a scientific finding used as the legal basis for emissions regulation.

The executive summary of the controversial report inaccurately claims that “CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed”.

It also states misleadingly that “excessively aggressive [emissions] mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial”.

Compiled in just two months by five “independent” researchers hand-selected by the climate-sceptic US secretary of energy Chris Wright, the document has sparked fierce criticism from climate scientists, who have pointed to factual errors, misrepresentation of research, messy citations and the cherry-picking of data.

Experts have also noted the authors’ track record of promoting views at odds with the mainstream understanding of climate science.

Wright’s department claims the report – which is currently open to public comment as part of a 30-day review – underwent an “internal peer-review period amongst [the] DoE’s scientific research community”.

The report is designed to provide a scientific underpinning to one flank of the Trump administration’s plans to rescind a finding that serves as the legal prerequisite for federal emissions regulation. (The second flank is about legal authority to regulate emissions.)

The “endangerment finding” – enacted by the Obama administration in 2009 – states that six greenhouse gases are contributing to the net-negative impacts of climate change and, thus, put the public in danger.

In a press release on 29 July, the US Environmental Protection Agency said “updated studies and information” set out in the new report would “challenge the assumptions” of the 2009 finding.

Carbon Brief asked a wide range of climate scientists, including those cited in the “critical review” itself, to factcheck the report’s various claims and statements.

The post Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims appeared first on Carbon Brief.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-trumps-climate-report-includes-more-than-100-false-or-misleading-claims/