Connect with us

Published

on

Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

‘Wartime’ floods swamped southern China 

‘WARTIME’ EMERGENCY: Extreme weather events continued over the past two weeks. Dongting lake – China’s second-biggest freshwater lake – in southern China’s Hunan province experienced a wide “dyke breach” on 6 July, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported. The newspaper found the flooding in Hunan was “the most severe flooding seen in 70 years”, with local authorities declaring a “wartime” emergency. State-run newspaper China Daily said the water level on one Hunan river, at 77.63m, was “the highest water level recorded since 1954”. In central China, Henan province, which had experienced a “one-in-a-thousand-year” rainstorm in 2021, also issued a flood warning, reported the Paper, a state-supported outlet. Another central province, Anhui, evacuated 195,000 people whose lives were affected by heavy rainfall, said state news agency Xinhua.  

Subscribe: China Briefing
  • Sign up to Carbon Brief’s free “China Briefing” email newsletter. All you need to know about the latest developments relating to China and climate change. Sent to your inbox every Thursday.

RESCUE FUNDING: Chinese premier Li Qiang called for “unswerving efforts” on flood control and disaster relief, reported Xinhua. Some 540m yuan ($74m) of funds were issued by the central government to “help local authorities search, rescue and relocate disaster victims”, reported financial media Caixin. An additional 200m yuan ($27.5m) was provided to help flood rescue efforts in Hunan and Jiangxi, reported Science and Technology Daily. (See Carbon Brief’s recent Q&A for more on flooding in China.)

CLIMATE CHANGE: China’s weather agency forecasted that “extreme heat [will] persist across the country” over the summer as “climate change pushes global temperatures higher”, Agence France-Presse reported, citing state broadcaster CCTV. The Economist said that, as a result of climate change, China is likely to “increasingly experience periods of heavier rainfall, as well as longer periods of dryness”, according to World Weather Attribution. Xinhua reported that provinces in southern China are expecting high temperatures ranging from 35-40C in the coming days.

EU moved ahead with provisional tariffs on Chinese EVs 

PROVISIONAL TARIFFS: The EU’s provisional duties on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) came into force on 4 July, despite Beijing calling on Brussels last month to “scrap” them, Bloomberg reported. The tariff rate was set between 20-48% for individual automakers – with companies that cooperated in initial investigations receiving a lower rate, added the newspaper. EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis said “we can also find ways not to apply [the tariffs] at the end of the day” since the negotiations with China were still ongoing, “but it is very clear this solution [would] need to solve that market distortion that we are currently having”, according to Reuters. It noted that definitive duties are due by November.

BEIJING’S RESPONSE: The Chinese commerce ministry and foreign ministry both opposed the EU duties. Meanwhile, China announced a probe into EU brandy imports, reported Reuters. This is the second EU product, after pork, that China has investigated as a countermeasure. Xinhua quoted data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) and said the export of “new energy” vehicles (NEVs) in June reached 80,000, up 12.3% year-on-year. However, the CPCA told Reuters that the June number was actually 20-30 percentage points lower than expected growth due to the EU tariffs. The newswire quoted the association saying: “Our (NEV export) growth used to be at least 30-40%, and it has slowed to only more than 10%, meaning (the tariffs) had a 20-30 percentage point impact on (NEV export growth), a conspicuous short-term impact.” Chinese manufacturer Neta Auto viewed the EU tariffs as a “temporary setback” that would incentivise Chinese companies to explore other overseas markets, such as in Africa, according to the SCMP.

OTHER COUNTRIES: Following similar moves by the EU and US, Canada was also considering raising tariffs and blocking Chinese investments, with an intention to “deter Chinese-made electric vehicles from accessing the Canadian market”, said Bloomberg. ASEAN members, such as Thailand and Indonesia, also expressed “concerns about the negative effects of massive Chinese imports”, reported the SCMP, but no measures have been announced so far. Meanwhile, leading Chinese EV maker BYD announced plans to build a factory in Turkey, BBC News reported, noting that, as Turkey is part of the EU Customs Union, it will be able to bypass EU tariffs. The announcement came after the Turkish government had also announced tariffs on Chinese EVs, as reported in the 13 June edition of China Briefing.

China published draft carbon market rules

EMISSIONS ALLOWANCES: China has published draft rules aiming to “reduc[e] an oversupply of permits” in its national carbon market, Bloomberg reported. Participants would no longer be able to borrow allowances from “future years” and the rules on “carrying over unused permits from previous years” would become stricter, if the draft rules are enacted, added the outlet. Yan Qin, lead carbon analyst at London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), was quoted by the news outlet saying “the confirmation of supply tightening will send a strong signal to the market participants”.

CLOSING LOOPHOLES: The market has seen “companies hoarding carbon permits in anticipation of tightening allocations, leading to very low liquidity in the carbon market”, financial media outlet Caixin said. The business newspaper added that strict penalties in the interim carbon market rules issued in January encouraged traders to “stor[e] their quotas for the future, rather than selling [them]”, adding that “previous expectations of tighter quota allocations for emissions-controlled companies have heightened the perceived value” of allowances, it added. The draft rules, according to an anonymous source interviewed by Caixin, “means that the quotas previously hoarded by emissions-controlled companies and not traded will lose their value after a set period, potentially releasing more supply”.

Spotlight 

Analysis: China’s clean energy pushes coal to record-low 53% share of power in May 2024

Last November, Carbon Brief published analysis suggesting that China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions might have peaked, with this being reinforced by analysis published in May.

In this issue, Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, offers further support for his earlier analysis, using recently released data to show that clean energy pushed coal to a record-low 53% of China’s electricity mix in May 2024.

This analysis is published in full on the Carbon Brief website.

Why official data on electricity generation is increasingly limited

Every month, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes data on China’s electricity generation by technology. The figures for May 2024 came out nearly a month ago, in mid-June, and were widely reported at the time.

However, this data is now increasingly limited because it excludes, among other things, “distributed” solar sites, such as those on the roofs of homes and businesses. Analysis for this article shows this misses out about half of the electricity generated by solar overall.

There is now enough data to work around the limitations in the NBS power generation data and give a complete picture of China’s power generation mix in May.

What a complete set of generation data revealed

Putting the various figures together showed that, far from the modest 29% year-on-year increase in the incomplete NBS data, there was a record 78% rise in solar electricity generation in May 2024.

Installed solar capacity increased by 52% to 691 gigawatts (GW) and capacity utilisation improved from 16% to 19%. This delivered the largest increase in China’s electricity generation for any technology, with solar generation rising 41TWh from 53TWh in May 2023 to 94TWh in May 2024.

The second-largest increase was from hydropower, where capacity only increased 1%, but utilisation jumped from 31% to 41%, as the sector recovers from the record drought seen in 2022-23. This led to a 39% or 34TWh increase in power generation, which hit 115TWh.

Wind power saw a strong increase in capacity of 21%. Utilisation fell, however, likely due to month-to-month variations in wind conditions. As a result, power generation grew by a relatively modest 5%, or 4TWh, reaching 83TWh.

Nuclear and biomass-fired power generation also saw small increases in capacity, but the utilisation of nuclear plants fell from 87% to 85%.

How surging clean energy pushed fossil fuels into reverse

In total, clean power generation grew 78TWh in May 2024, which was more than enough to exceed the 49TWh increase in electricity demand.

As a result, gas-fired generation plummeted by 16%, despite a 9% increase in capacity, driving a steep 24% drop in utilisation. Coal-fired generation capacity increased by 3% while power generation from coal fell 3.7%, resulting in average plant utilisation falling by 7%. Falling demand could temper investment in new coal capacity, which has run hot in the past two years.

The changes in coal and gas-fired generation, combined with a slight degradation in the thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants, imply a 3.6% drop in CO2 emissions from the power sector.

Why the clean power surge meant a record-low share for coal

After these changes in output, China’s power generation mix shifted significantly away from fossil fuels in May 2024. The share of coal-fired generation fell to 53%, down from 60% at the same time last year and the lowest share on record, as shown in the figure below.

Meanwhile, solar rose to 12%, up from 7% a year earlier and the highest on record. The remainder was made up of wind (11%), hydropower (15%), nuclear (5%), gas (3%) and biomass (2%).

Share of China’s electricity generation, %, 2016-2024.

Meanwhile, strong clean-energy capacity growth continued in May 2024, with 19 gigawatt (GW) of solar being added, 3GW of wind and 1.2GW of nuclear.

In the first five months of 2024, China has added some 79GW of solar and 20GW of wind. These additions are up 29% and 21% respectively from last year’s numbers, which were already record-breaking.

What the power sector shift means for China’s CO2

The rapid growth in generation from solar shows that the solar capacity boom is delivering new electricity supplies at a scale sufficient to cover much of China’s demand growth.

This reinforces the view that China’s CO2 emissions are in a period of structural decline.

If clean energy additions are kept at the level reached in 2023 and early 2024, then CO2 output is likely to keep falling, confirming 2023 as the peak year for the country’s emissions.

However, with China due to announce new climate targets by early next year, the government’s level of ambition for clean energy growth remains an open question.

Watch, read, listen

GRID INVESTMENT: The Financial Times reported on surging investment in upgrading China’s electricity grid “to support green energy transition”, citing analysis finding “more than $800bn” would be spent by 2030.

FLOOD AND COMMUNIST: Chinese website 12371.cn – the official website for Chinese communist party members – carried a notice by the organisation department of the CPC Central Committee, calling on “communist party members at grassroot level” to play an “exemplary role” in “flood prevention and disaster relief”.

‘HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT’: The Chinese communist party’s Qiushi magazine published an “interpretation” of the “philosophy” behind “high quality development”, a concept widely circulated in Chinese policy documents in recent years.

POWER REFORM: Caixin published an explainer breaking down reasons behind the need for a “green power system” in China, as well as how that new system could operate. 


339

The total amount of utility-scale solar and wind, in gigawatts (GW), under construction in China as of June 2024, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM). The number, comprising 180GW of solar and 159GW of wind, is nearly twice as much as the rest of the world combined, according to GEM’s latest updates.


New science 

Diversifying heat sources in China’s urban district heating systems will reduce risk of carbon lock-in
Nature Energy 

A new study found the share of non-fossil sources in China’s urban district heating systems remained low, but “new coal-fired combined heat and power plants” continued to be built in the past few years. It said replacing “polluting coal” with “new and improved coal-fired combined heat and power plants” will help to reduce emissions; expanding the use of “industrial waste heat and air/ground-source heat pumps” could also help decarbonisation. The paper concluded that “strategic choices for district heating technologies are necessary for China” to reach its “dual carbon goals”.

Mitigation potential of methane emissions in China’s livestock sector can reach one-third by 2030 at low cost 
Nature Food

Methane emissions from livestock in China are projected to rise 13% by 2030, but there is the “technical potential” to cut them by 36%, a new study suggested. Using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys, the researchers created a high-resolution dataset of the country’s livestock methane emissions over 1990-2020. The most effective methane mitigation measures would be “increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage” used for manure, the authors said. At carbon prices below $100 per tonne of CO2 equivalent, this would be “more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China”, the study added.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org

The post China Briefing 11 July: ‘Wartime’ flooding emergency; EU tariff impact; Record-low coal share appeared first on Carbon Brief.

China Briefing 11 July: ‘Wartime’ flooding emergency; EU tariff impact; Record-low coal share

Continue Reading

Climate Change

EU refuses to review “strategic” mineral projects for energy transition

Published

on

The European Commission has rejected requests by green groups to review the status of 16 controversial projects it has designated as “strategic” to shore up the bloc’s supply of critical minerals needed for the energy transition, despite environmental concerns.

Campaigners accused the European Union’s executive arm of being more interested in labelling projects as “strategic” to accelerate their development than ensuring they meet its environmental standards.

Legal experts told Climate Home News that despite the EU’s rhetoric on developing sustainable mining standards, it will be very difficult for local communities and NGOs to use the judicial system to enforce compliance with environmental safeguards.

Earlier this year, the European Commission labelled 47 mineral extraction, processing and recycling projects within EU member states as “strategic“, granting them preferential treatment for gaining permits and easier access to EU funding.

    Spanning from the north of Sweden to Portugal and southern Spain, these projects are due to help the EU reach targets for sourcing more of the minerals it needs for clean energy and digital technologies within its own borders in an environmentally friendly way, while reducing its dependence on imports from China.

    However, NGOs and local communities have accused the European Commission of a lack of transparency and of failing to engage civil society over the selection of these projects, most of which are in the early stages of development and are yet to obtain the necessary permits or conduct detailed environmental impact assessments.

    Civil society groups challenged the decision to include around a third of projects on the strategic list, arguing that the commission had not properly assessed their sustainability. They also cited risks of social and environmental harm and human rights violations.

    EU: Environmental compliance lies with member states

    In total, 11 requests for review covering 16 of the projects planned within the EU were filed under the Aarhus Regulation, which gives NGOs the right to ask the European Commission to review administrative decisions if they are considered to violate the bloc’s environmental law.

    In a single response shared with green groups this week, and seen by Climate Home News, the commission found that the requests to review the projects’ status were “unfounded”.

    “A thorough assessment confirmed that all points raised by the NGOs had already been properly addressed during the selection process. All the projects concerned therefore retain their status as strategic projects,” a European Commission spokesperson told Climate Home News. They did not respond to detailed questions about their assessment.

    Under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which was adopted last year, the commission can designate mineral projects as strategic if they meet a shortlist of criteria, including that the project “would be implemented sustainably” and monitor, prevent and minimise environmental and adverse social impacts.

    The strategic status can be revoked if projects no longer meet the criteria.

    However, the commission said it was not its job to carry out a full and detailed assessment of whether the projects fully comply with EU environmental laws, adding that it is only required to make an “overall assessment”.

    Rather, it argued, member states have the responsibility to ensure the projects fully comply with EU environmental standards including impacts on biodiversity and ground water as well as waste management.

    The commission also refused to examine the social impacts of the projects on community livelihoods, health and human rights – which could arise from environmental degradation – arguing that this was outside the scope of the review mechanism under the Aarhus Regulation.

    Campaigners have strongly criticised the response.

    “Cosmetic”sustainability criteria

    Ilze Tralmaka, a lawyer at Client Earth, told Climate Home News the commission’s decision showed that the designation of mineral projects as “strategic” doesn’t make them safe or sustainable, despite creating a legal presumption that they serve the public interest and protect public health and safety.

    “While on paper, there is mention of sustainability, in practice, it’s almost cosmetic,” she said. “It seems the environmental standards are just briefly looked at and that the policy of declaring these projects as strategic is more important than real engagement with the sustainability criteria.”

    Client Earth argues that while securing supplies of minerals for the energy transition is a legitimate goal, the status of strategic project is being “misused” to fast-track questionable mining projects.

    Tralmaka said the European Commission should engage where there are “unanswered questions, or if there is credible information about these projects being potentially unsafe”.

    Client Earth was part of a group of NGOs that challenged the decision to designate the Barroso lithium project in Portugal as a strategic project.

    Europe’s largest lithium deposit has been discovered underground at Covas de Barroso in northern Portugal. British company Savannah Resources wants to create Europe s largest open-cast lithium mine by 2026. Core sample showing granite and diffuse lithium on June 14, 2023. (Photo: © Henrique Campos/Hans Lucas)

    Europe’s largest lithium deposit has been discovered underground at Covas de Barroso in northern Portugal. British company Savannah Resources wants to create Europe s largest open-cast lithium mine by 2026. Core sample showing granite and diffuse lithium on June 14, 2023. (Photo: © Henrique Campos/Hans Lucas)

    “Textbook example of how not to do a green transition”

    London-listed Savannah Resources is planning to dig four open pit mines in the northern Barroso region to extract lithium from Europe’s largest known deposit. The company says it will extract enough lithium every year to produce around half a million batteries for electric vehicles.

    However, local groups have staunchly opposed the mining project, citing concerns over waste management and water use as well as the impact of the mine on traditional agriculture in the area.

    Earlier this year, a UN committee found that Portugal had failed to respect citizens’ rights to information and public participation in the case of the Barroso project. Portuguese authorities denied the breach.

    Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use

    The commission said it was satisfied with the project’s overall sustainability credentials and that campaign groups should take a case to their national court if they are concerned about the legality of any project.

    “This decision shows that the EU is willing to trade rural lives and irreplaceable landscapes for a political headline,” said Nik Völker of MiningWatch Portugal. “The truth is, the Mina do Barroso mine offers minimal benefits and enormous risks: a textbook example of how not to do a green transition.”

    Savannah Resources did not respond to a request for comment.

    “Murky” standards make legal challenge hard

    Simon Simanovski, a business and human rights attorney with German law firm Günther Rechtsanwälte, has advised dozens of communities affected by projects designated as “strategic” under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act over the past year.

    For him, the commission’s response creates a disconnect between its role as a decision-making body and the responsibility for enforcing the bloc’s environmental laws, by pushing it to member states. That, he said, creates “murky standards”.

    This, he added, will make it “really difficult” to challenge inadequate environmental safeguards through the courts. “It means that there is no effective judicial protection… and that the projects will happen,” he told Climate Home News.

    However, Simanovski still expects some campaign groups to try filing a case before the general court of the European Court of Justice to challenge the European Commission’s response and ask it to review its assessment of the projects.

    Simanovski represents communities in Serbia that are also challenging the “strategic” designation of the Jadar lithium mine – one of an additional 13 “strategic projects” located outside EU countries – which has seen massive local opposition.

    The commission is expected to respond to requests to review those external strategic projects in January.

    The post EU refuses to review “strategic” mineral projects for energy transition appeared first on Climate Home News.

    EU refuses to review “strategic” mineral projects for energy transition

    Continue Reading

    Climate Change

    DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event

    Published

    on

    Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
    An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

    This week

    ‘Lukewarm’ end to COP30

    BYE BELÉM: The COP30 climate talks in Belém ended last weekend with countries agreeing on a goal to “triple” adaptation finance by 2035 and efforts to “strengthen” climate plans, Climate Home News reported. The final deal “fell short on the global transition away from oil, gas and coal”, the outlet said, as Brazil announced that it would bring forward voluntary roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and deforestation, before the next COP. It was a “frustrating end” for more than 80 countries who wanted a roadmap away from fossil fuels to be part of the formal COP agreement, BBC News said.

    WHAT HAPPENED?: Carbon Brief published its in-depth analysis of all the key outcomes from COP30, spanning everything from negotiations on adaptation, just transition, gender and “Article 6” carbon trading through to a round-up of pledges on various issues. Another Carbon Brief article summed up outcomes around food, forests, land and nature. Also, Carbon Brief journalists discussed the COP in a webinar held earlier this week.

    ART OF THE DEAL: The “compromise” COP30 deal – known as the “global mutirão” – “exposed deep rifts over how future climate action should be pursued”, Reuters noted. The “last-ditch” agreement was reached after fossil-fuel wording negotiations between the EU and Saudi Arabia, according to the Guardian. Meanwhile, Carbon Brief revealed the “informal” list of 84 countries said to have “opposed” the inclusion of a fossil-fuel roadmap in the mutirão decision, but analysis of the list exposed contradictions and likely errors.

    UNITY, SCIENCE, SENSE: The final agreement received “lukewarm praise”, said the Associated Press. Palau ambassador Ilana Seid, who chaired the coalition of small-island nations, told the newswire: “Given the circumstances of geopolitics today, we’re actually quite pleased…The alternative is that we don’t get a decision and that would have been [worse].” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said that amid “denial, division and geopolitics”, countries “chose unity, science and economic common sense”, reported the Press Trust of India.

    Around the world

    • Floods and landslides killed more than 200 people in Thailand and Indonesia this week, reported Bloomberg. At least 90 people also died in recent floods in Vietnam, said Al Jazeera.
    • New measures to cut energy bills and a “pay-per-mile” electric-vehicle levy were among the announcements in the UK’s budget, said Carbon Brief.
    • The Group of 20 (G20) leaders signed off on a declaration “addressing the climate crisis” and other issues, reported Reuters, which had no input from the US who boycotted last week’s G20 summit in South Africa.
    • Canadian prime minister Mark Carney signed a deal with the province of Alberta “centred on plans for a new heavy oil pipeline”, said the Guardian, adding that Canadian culture minister and former environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, resigned from cabinet over the deal.
    • Greenpeace analysis, covered by Reuters, found that permits for new coal plants in China are “on track to fall to a four-year low” in 2025.

    27

    The number of hours that COP30 talks went over schedule before ending in Belém last Saturday, making it the 11th-longest UN climate summit on record, according to analysis by Carbon Brief.


    Latest climate research

    • The risk of night-time deaths during heatwaves increased “significantly” over 2005-15 in sub-Saharan Africa | Science Advances
    • Almost half of climate journalists surveyed showed “moderate to severe” symptoms of anxiety | Traumatology
    • Lakes experienced “more severe” heatwaves than those in the atmosphere over the past two decades | Communications Earth & Environment

    (For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

    Captured

    COP30: The 'global mutirao' text does not use many active verbs

    The key COP30 agreement – termed the “global mutirão” – contained 69 inactive verbs, which require no action from countries, compared to 32 active ones. “Recognises”, “recalls” and “acknowledges” were used far more often than more active verbs, such as “decides”, “calls” and “requests”, showed Carbon Brief analysis.

    Spotlight

    Nine warnings from a UK climate and nature ‘emergency’ briefing

    This week, Carbon Brief’s Orla Dwyer reports from an event where experts and campaigners sounded the alarm bell on climate change and nature loss.

    Naturalist and broadcaster Chris Packham urged attendees at a climate and nature “emergency briefing” in London yesterday to “listen to the science” on climate change amid a “dangerous wave of misinformation and lies”.

    The “first-of-its-kind” event heard from nine experts on the links between climate change, nature loss, health, food production, economics and national security.

    Event host, Prof Mike Berners-Lee from Lancaster University, called for a “World War II level of leadership” to tackle the interconnected crises.

    Hundreds of people showed up, including Green Party, Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs, leader of the Greens Zack Polanski, musician Brian Eno and actress Olivia Williams.

    Here is a snapshot of what the nine speakers said in their short, but stark, presentations.

    Prof Kevin Anderson, professor of energy at University of Manchester

    Anderson focused on the risks of a warmer world and the sliver of emissions left in the global carbon budget, noting:

    “We have to eliminate fossil fuels or temperatures will just keep going up.”

    He urged a “Marshall-style” plan – referencing the 1948 post-war US plan to rebuild Europe – to ramp up actions on retrofitting, public transport and electrification.

    Prof Nathalie Seddon, professor of biodiversity at University of Oxford

    Nature is not a “nice to have”, but rather “critical national infrastructure”, Seddon told attendees. She called for the “need to create an economy that values nature”.

    Prof Paul Behrens, British Academy global professor at University of Oxford

    Behrens discussed the food security risks from climate change. Impacts such as poor harvests and food price inflation are “barely acknowledge[d]” in agricultural policy, he said.

    He also emphasised the “unsustainable” land use of animal agriculture, which “occupies around 85% of total agricultural land” in the UK.

    Prof Tim Lenton, chair in climate change and Earth system science at Exeter University

    Lenton outlined the “plenty” of evidence that parts of the Earth system are hurtling towards climate tipping points that could push them irreversibly into a new state.

    He discussed the possibility of the shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which he said could cause -20C winters in London. He also noted positive tipping points, such as momentum that led the UK to stop burning coal for electricity last year.

    Speakers taking audience questions during the “national emergency briefing” event in London on 27 November. Credit: ZUMA Press, Inc.
    Speakers taking audience questions during the “national emergency briefing” event in London on 27 November. Credit: ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo

    Prof Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University

    One in four properties in England could be at risk of flooding by 2050, Fowler said, and winters are getting wetter.

    She discussed extreme weather risks and listed the impacts of floods in recent years in Germany, Spain and Libya, adding:

    “These events are not warnings of what might happen in the future. They’re actually examples of what is happening right now.”

    Angela Francis, director of policy solutions at WWF-UK

    Francis factchecked several claims made against climate action, such as the high cost of achieving net-zero.

    She noted that the estimated cost for the UK to achieve net-zero is about £4bn per year, which is less than 0.2% of GDP.

    Lieutenant general Richard Nugee, climate and security advisor

    Discussing the risks climate change poses to national security, Nugee said:

    “Climate change can be thought of as a threat multiplier, making existing threats worse or more frequent and introducing new threats. Climate shocks fuel global instability.”

    Tessa Khan, environmental lawyer and executive director of Uplift

    Khan said the rising cost of energy in the UK is “turning into a significant political risk for the energy transition”.

    She discussed the cost of fossil-fuel dependency and the fact that these fuels cost money to burn, but renewable “input[s], sun or wind [are] free forever”.

    Prof Hugh Montgomery, professor of intensive care medicine at University College London

    Montgomery discussed the health and economic benefits of climate actions, such as eating less meat and using more public transport, noting:

    “The climate emergency is a health emergency – and it’s about time we started treating it as one.”

    Watch, read, listen

    WATER WORRIES: ABC News spoke to three Iranian women about the impacts of Tehran’s water crisis amid the “worst drought in 60 years”.

    CLIMATE EFFORT: The BBC’s Climate Question podcast looked at the main outcomes from COP30 and discussed the “future of climate action” with a team of panelists.

    CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR:New Scientist interviewed criminal psychologist Julia Shaw about the psychology behind environmental crimes.

    Coming up

    Pick of the jobs

    DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

    This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

    The post DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    DeBriefed 28 November 2025: COP30’s ‘frustrating’ end; Asia floods; UK ‘emergency’ climate event

    Continue Reading

    Climate Change

    Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents

    Published

    on

    A confused – and, at times, contradictory – story has emerged about precisely which countries and negotiating blocs were opposed to a much-discussed “roadmap” deal at COP30 on “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.

    Carbon Brief has obtained a leaked copy of the 84-strong “informal list” of countries that, as a group, were characterised across multiple media reports as “blocking” the roadmap’s inclusion in the final “mutirão” deal across the second week of negotiations at the UN climate summit in Belém.

    During the fraught closing hours of the summit, Carbon Brief understands that the Brazilian presidency told negotiators in a closed meeting that there was no prospect of reaching consensus on the roadmap’s inclusion, because there were “80 for and 80 against”.

    However, Carbon Brief’s analysis of the list – which was drawn up informally by the presidency – shows that it contains a variety of contradictions and likely errors.

    Among the issues identified by Carbon Brief is the fact that 14 countries are listed as both supporting and opposing the idea of including a fossil-fuel roadmap in the COP30 outcome.

    In addition, the list of those said to have opposed a roadmap includes all 42 of the members of a negotiating group present in Belém – the least-developed countries (LDCs) – that has explicitly told Carbon Brief it did not oppose the idea.

    Moreover, one particularly notable entry on the list, Turkey – which is co-president of COP31 – tells Carbon Brief that its inclusion is “wrong”.

    Negotiating blocs

    COP28, held in Dubai in 2023, had finalised the first “global stocktake”, which called on all countries to contribute to global efforts, including a “transition away from fossil fuels”.

    Since then, negotiations on how to take this forward have faltered, including at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where countries were unable to agree to include this fossil-fuel transition as part of existing or new processes under the UN climate regime.

    Ahead of the start of COP30, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva made a surprise call for “roadmaps” on fossil-fuel transition and deforestation.

    While this idea was not on the official agenda for COP30, it had been under development for months ahead of the summit – and it became a key point of discussion in Belém.

    Ultimately, however, it did not become part of the formal COP30 outcome, with the Brazilian presidency instead launching a process to draw up roadmaps under its own initiative.

    This is because the COP makes decisions by consensus. The COP30 presidency insisted that there was no prospect of consensus being reached on a fossil-fuel roadmap, telling closed-door negotiations that there were “80 for and 80 against”.

    The list of countries supporting a roadmap as part of the COP30 outcome was obtained by Carbon Brief during the talks. Until now, however, the list of those opposed to the idea had not been revealed.

    Carbon Brief understands that this second list was drawn up informally by the Brazilian presidency after a meeting attended by representatives of around 50 nations. It was then filled out to the final total of 84 countries, based on membership of negotiating alliances.

    The bulk of the list of countries opposing a roadmap – some 39 nations – is made up of two negotiating blocs that opposed the proposal for divergent reasons (see below). Some countries within these blocs also held different positions on why – or even whether – they opposed the roadmap being included in the COP30 deal.

    These blocs are the 22-strong Arab group – chaired in Belém by Saudi Arabia – and the 25 members of the “like-minded developing countries” (LMDCs), chaired by India.

    For decades within the UN climate negotiations, countries have sat within at least one negotiating bloc rather than act in isolation. At COP30, the UN says there were 16 “active groups”. (Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has not sat within any group.)

    The inclusion on the “informal list” (shown in full below) of both the LMDCs and Arab group is accurate, as confirmed by the reporting of the International Institute for Sustainable Development’s Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB), which is the only organisation authorised to summarise what has happened in UN negotiations that are otherwise closed to the media.

    Throughout the fortnight of the talks, both the LMDCs and Arab group were consistent – at times together – in their resistance to proscriptive wording and commitments within any part of the COP30 deal around transitioning away from fossil fuels.

    But the reasons provided were nuanced and varied and cannot be characterised as meaning both blocs simply did not wish to undertake the transition – in fact, all countries under the Paris Agreement had already agreed to this in Dubai two years ago at COP28.

    However, further analysis by Carbon Brief of the list shows that it also – mistakenly – includes all of the members of the LDCs, bar Afghanistan and Myanmar, which were not present at the talks. In total, the LDCs represented 42 nations in Belém, ranging from Bangladesh and Benin through to Tuvalu and Tanzania.

    Some of the LDC nations had publicly backed a fossil-fuel roadmap.

    ‘Not correct’

    Manjeet Dhakal, lead adviser to the LDC chair, tells Carbon Brief that it is “not correct” that the LDCs, as a bloc, opposed a fossil-fuel roadmap during the COP30 negotiations.

    He says that the group’s expectations, made public before COP, clearly identified transitioning away from fossil fuels as an “urgent action” to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C goal “within reach”. He adds:

    “The LDC group has never blocked a fossil-fuel roadmap. [In fact], a few LDCs, including Nepal, have supported the idea.”

    Dhakal’s statement highlights a further confusing feature of the informal list – 14 countries appear on both of the lists of supporters and opposers. This is possible because many countries sit within two or more negotiating blocs at UN climate talks.

    For example, Kiribati, Solomon Islands and Tuvalu are members of both the “alliance of small island states” (AOSIS) and the LDCs.

    As is the case with the “informal list” of opposers, the list of supporters (which was obtained by Carbon Brief during the talks) is primarily made up of negotiating alliances.

    Specifically, it includes AOSIS, the “environmental integrity group” (EIG), the “independent association of Latin America and the Caribbean” (AILAC) and the European Union (EU).

    In alphabetical order, the 14 countries on both lists are: Bahrain; Bulgaria; Comoros; Cuba; Czech Republic; Guinea-Bissau; Haiti; Hungary; Kiribati; Nepal; Sierra Leone; Solomon Islands; Timor-Leste; and Tuvalu.

    This obvious anomaly acts to highlight the mistaken inclusion of the LDCs on the informal list of opposers.

    The list includes 37 of the 54 nations within the Africa group, which was chaired by Tanzania in Belém.

    But this also appears to be a function of the mistaken inclusion of the LDCs in the list, many of which sit within both blocs.

    Confusion

    An overview of the talks published by the Guardian this week reported:

    “Though [Brazil’s COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago] told the Guardian [on 19 November] that the divide over the [roadmap] issue could be bridged, [he] kept insisting 80 countries were against the plan, though these figures were never substantiated. One negotiator told the Guardian: ‘We don’t understand where that number comes from.’

    “A clue came when Richard Muyungi, the Tanzanian climate envoy who chairs the African group, told a closed meeting that all its 54 members aligned with the 22-member Arab Group on the issue. But several African countries told the Guardian this was not true and that they supported the phaseout – and Tanzania has a deal with Saudi Arabia to exploit its gas reserves.”

    Adding to the confusion, the Guardian also said two of the most powerful members of the LMDCs were not opposed to a roadmap, reporting: “China, having demurred on the issue, indicated it would not stand in the way [of a roadmap]; India also did not object.”

    Writing for Climate Home News, ActionAid USA’s Brandon Wu said:

    “Between rich country intransigence and undemocratic processes, it’s understandable – and justifiable – that many developing countries, including most of the Africa group, are uncomfortable with the fossil-fuel roadmap being pushed for at COP30. It doesn’t mean they are all ‘blockers’ or want the world to burn, and characterising them as such is irresponsible.

    “The core package of just transition, public finance – including for adaptation and loss and damage – and phasing out fossil fuels and deforestation is exactly that: a package. The latter simply will not happen, politically or practically, without the former.”

    Carbon Brief understands that Nigeria was a vocal opponent of the roadmap’s inclusion in the mutirão deal during the final hours of the closed-door negotiations, but that does not equate to it opposing a transition away from fossil fuels. This is substantiated by the ENB summary:

    “During the…closing plenary…Nigeria stressed that the transition away from fossil fuels should be conducted in a nationally determined way, respecting [common, but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities].”

    The “informal list” of opposers also includes three EU members – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Hungary.

    The EU – led politically at the talks by climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, but formally chaired by Denmark – was reportedly at the heart of efforts to land a deal that explicitly included a “roadmap” for transitioning away from fossil fuels.

    Carbon Brief understands that, as part of the “informal intelligence gathering” used to compile the list, pre-existing positions on climate actions by nations were factored in rather than only counting positions expressed at Belém. For example, Hungary and the Czech Republic were reported to have been among those resisting the last-minute “hard-fought deal” by the EU on its 2040 climate target and latest Paris Agreement climate pledge.

    (Note that EU members Poland and Italy did not join the list of countries supporting a fossil-fuel roadmap at COP30.)

    The remaining individual nations on the informal list either have economies that are heavily dependent on fossil-fuel production (for example, Russia and Brunei Darussalam), or are, like the US, currently led by right-leaning governments resistant to climate action (for example, Argentina).

    Turkey is a notable inclusion on the list because it was agreed in Belém that it will host next year’s COP31 in Antalya, but with Australia leading the negotiation process. In contrast, Australia is on the 85-strong list of roadmap supporters.

    However, a spokesperson for Turkey’s delegation in Belem has told Carbon Brief that it did not oppose the roadmap at COP30 and its inclusion on the list is “wrong”.

    Saudi negotiators in conversation with COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago. Do Lago is on the left with his eyebrows raised, and 9 negotiators can be seen gathered around him, all people forming a circle.
    Saudi negotiators in conversation with COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago. Credit: IISD/ENB | Mike Muzurakis.

    Media characterisations

    Some media reporting of the roadmap “blockers” sought to identify the key proponents.

    For example, the Sunday Times said “the ‘axis of obstruction’ – Saudi Arabia, Russia and China – blocked the Belém roadmap”.

    Agence France-Presse highlighted the views of a French minister who said: “Who are the biggest blockers? We all know them. They are the oil-producing countries, of course. Russia, India, Saudi Arabia. But they are joined by many emerging countries.”

    Reuters quoted Vanuatu’s climate minister alleging that “Saudi Arabia was one of those opposed”.

    The Financial Times said “a final agreement [was] blocked again and again by countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia”.

    Bloomberg said the roadmap faced “stiff opposition from Arab states and Russia”.

    Media coverage in India and China has pushed back at the widespread portrayals of what many other outlets had described as the “blockers” of a fossil-fuel roadmap.

    The Indian Express reported:

    “India said it was not opposed to the mention of a fossil-fuel phaseout plan in the package, but it must be ensured that countries are not called to adhere to a uniform pathway for it.”

    Separately, speaking on behalf of the LMDCs during the closing plenary at COP30, India had said: “Adaptation is a priority. Our regime is not mitigation centric.”

    China Daily, a state-run newspaper that often reflects the government’s official policy positions, published a comment article this week stating:

    “Over 80 countries insisted that the final deal must include a concrete plan to act on the previous commitment to move beyond coal, oil, and natural gas adopted at COP28…But many delegates from the global south disagreed, citing concerns about likely sudden economic contraction and heightened social instability. The summit thus ended without any agreement on this roadmap.

    “Now that the conference is over, and emotions are no longer running high, all parties should look objectively at the potential solution proposed by China, which some international media outlets wrongly painted as an opponent to the roadmap.

    “Addressing an event on the sidelines of the summit, Xia Yingxian, deputy head of China’s delegation to COP30, said the narrative on transitioning away from fossil fuels would find greater acceptance if it were framed differently, focusing more on the adoption of renewable energy sources.”

    Speaking to Carbon Brief at COP30, Dr Osama Faqeeha, Saudi Arabia’s deputy environment minister, refused to be drawn on whether a fossil-fuel roadmap was a red line for his nation, but said:

    “I think the issue is the emissions, it’s not the fuel. And our position is that we have to cut emissions regardless.”

    Neither the Arab group nor the LMDCs responded to Carbon Brief’s invitation to comment on their inclusion on the list.

    The Brazilian COP30 presidency did not respond at the time of publication.

    While the fossil-fuel roadmap was not part of the formal COP30 outcome, the Brazilian presidency announced in the closing plenary that it would take the idea forward under its own initiative, drawing on an international conference hosted in Colombia next year.

    Corrêa do Lago told the closing plenary:

    “We know some of you had greater ambitions for some of the issues at hand…As president Lula said at the opening of this COP, we need roadmaps so that humanity, in a just and planned manner, can overcome its dependence on fossil fuels, halt and reverse deforestation and mobilise resources for these purposes.

    “I, as president of COP30, will therefore create two roadmaps, one on halting and reverting deforestation, another to transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner. They will be led by science and they will be inclusive with the spirit of the mutirão.

    “We will convene high level dialogues, gathering key international organisations, governments from both producing and consuming countries, industry workers, scholars, civil society and will report back to the COP. We will also benefit from the first international conference for the phase-out of fossil fuels, scheduled to take place in April in Colombia.”

    Fossil-fuel roadmap

    ‘Supporters’

    Antigua and Barbuda
    Australia
    Austria
    Bahamas
    Barbados
    Belgium
    Belize
    Brazil
    Cabo Verde
    Chile
    Colombia
    Cook Islands
    Costa Rica
    Croatia
    Cyprus
    Denmark
    Dominica
    Dominican Republic
    Estonia
    Fiji
    Finland
    France
    Georgia
    Germany
    Greece
    Grenada
    Guatemala
    Guyana
    Honduras
    Iceland
    Ireland
    Jamaica
    Kenya
    Latvia
    Liechtenstein
    Lithuania
    Luxembourg
    Maldives
    Malta
    Marshall Islands
    Mauritius
    Mexico
    Micronesia
    Monaco
    Mongolia
    Nauru
    Netherlands
    Niue
    Norway
    Palau
    Panama
    Papua New Guinea
    Peru
    Portugal
    Romania
    Samoa
    São Tomé and Príncipe
    Slovakia
    Slovenia
    South Korea
    Spain
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    St. Lucia
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines
    Suriname
    Sweden
    Switzerland
    Tonga
    Trinidad and Tobago
    UK
    Vanuatu

    Both ‘supporter’ and ‘opposer’

    Bahrain
    Bulgaria
    Comoros
    Cuba
    Czech Republic
    Guinea-Bissau
    Haiti
    Hungary
    Kiribati
    Nepal
    Sierra Leone
    Solomon Islands
    Timor-Leste
    Tuvalu

    ‘Opposers’

    Algeria
    Angola
    Argentina
    Armenia
    Bangladesh
    Benin
    Bolivia
    Brunei
    Burkina Faso
    Burundi
    Cambodia
    Central African Republic
    Chad
    China
    Democratic Republic of the Congo
    Djibouti
    Ecuador
    Egypt
    El Salvador
    Eritrea
    Ethiopia
    Gambia
    Guinea
    India
    Indonesia
    Iran
    Iraq
    Jordan
    Kuwait
    Laos
    Lebanon
    Lesotho
    Liberia
    Libya
    Madagascar
    Malawi
    Malaysia
    Mali
    Mauritania
    Moldova
    Morocco
    Mozambique
    Nicaragua
    Niger
    Nigeria
    Oman
    Pakistan
    Palestine
    Paraguay
    Philippines
    Qatar
    Russia
    Rwanda
    Saudi Arabia
    Senegal
    Somalia
    South Sudan
    Sri Lanka
    Sudan
    Syria
    Tanzania
    Togo
    Tunisia
    Turkey
    Uganda
    United Arab Emirates
    Venezuela
    Vietnam
    Yemen
    Zambia

    Additional reporting by Daisy Dunne.

    The post Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    Revealed: Leak casts doubt on COP30’s ‘informal list’ of fossil-fuel roadmap opponents

    Continue Reading

    Trending

    Copyright © 2022 BreakingClimateChange.com