Ten years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, as geopolitical tensions slow climate action, leading experts have urged ambitious countries to forge new coalitions that can drive forward efforts to limit global warming without waiting for consensus.
As the implementation of the landmark Paris accord enters a “more difficult phase”, French economist Laurence Tubiana, one of the pact’s key architects, said some countries could go ahead “with more speed and more ambition” than others.
“[The Paris Agreement] is not a Bible – it has to evolve with time,” she said. Tubiana, a former diplomat, added that the framework needs to grapple with a “much more fragmented” landscape as countries are sharply divided over the pace of the transition away from fossil fuels.
Why the Paris Agreement worked – and what it needs to do to survive
At COP30, more than 80 countries wanted a global roadmap for phasing down coal, oil and gas to be formally included in the main political outcome of the Belém summit. But strong opposition from most fossil-fuel producing nations pushed such a plan out of the final Global Mutirao decision which had to be agreed by consensus.
Instead, the Brazilian presidency promised to create voluntary roadmaps on tackling fossil fuels and deforestation outside of the UN climate process over the next year.
Move faster than global consensus
Tubiana suggested that the “next wave” of climate action could be unleashed through enforcing Article 6.1 of the Paris Agreement, which recognises that some countries “choose to pursue voluntary cooperation” in implementing their national climate plans (NDCs) “to allow for higher ambition”.
That, she added, could provide “the hook” to link initiatives led by external alliances to the official framework guided by the Paris Agreement, and make them more effective and accountable.
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Government attendance at COP30 was lowest in 10 years
With a shortage of affordable accommodation on COP30’s official platform, just 7,500 people attended the summit with official government badges
Echoing Tubiana’s words, Rachel Kyte, the UK’s special representative for climate, argued for building “ever more interesting coalitions within countries and across countries” among those that “continue to be inspired by Paris”.
So-called coalitions of the willing have been useful before “for some countries to move further, faster when the global consensus was not there”, she added.
Bernice Lee, a distinguished fellow at Chatham House, said countries that have already invested political and economic capital in implementing the Paris Agreement – such as China – have “skin in the game” in a way that sets them apart from those that have yet to do so. It’s a “coalition of the doing rather than just the willingness”, she added.
Climate action slows in recent years
As the United States, led by climate change–denying President Donald Trump, prepares to formally exit the Paris Agreement in January, nations in Belém “strongly” reaffirmed their unity and commitment to the accord’s goals. That came as UN Secretary-General António Guterres conceded for the first time that global temperatures will rise, at least temporarily, above the 1.5C threshold set in the Paris deal.
But even if the most ambitious target is missed, the projected global temperature increase by the end of the century has fallen by at least 1C in the decade since the landmark agreement was struck.
“That means Paris has already reduced future risks for people and ecosystems: fewer extreme heat events, lower sea-level rise, and less pressure on vulnerable communities than in a 3–4C world,” Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, said in a statement.
But he warned that climate action “has slowed in the last four years”. Now, he emphasised, “our future depends on the political will to move forward fast enough to finish the job”.
Need for “pragmatic” partnerships
Kyte advised developed countries “still in the mix”, like the UK and European Union member states, to find a different way to forge partnerships with more humility. “What we saw in Belém is that a decade of over-promising and under-delivering in many dimensions has grown old,” she said, singling out the provision of money by wealthy governments to help vulnerable countries cope with escalating climate impacts.
At COP30, a demand from the world’s poorest nations to triple adaptation finance given by rich countries was agreed, but only by a deadline of 2035 rather than 2030, and within the strict contours of the $300-billion-a-year UN climate finance goal, which covers all kinds of public funding including loans and private finance mobilised by governments.
Comment: Why the Paris Agreement worked – and what it needs to do to survive
In tackling thorny issues such as transitioning away from fossil fuels, as agreed at COP28 in Dubai, Kyte said that, while some countries are actively trying to “weaponise” this tension, others are “just fearful of a world where there is going to be some kind of diktat on how to manage their transitions”.
Once work gets underway on the roadmaps for phasing down fossil fuels and halting deforestation, “I hope we can recapture the spirit of Paris, which was about pragmatic partnership in pursuit of things which are really difficult,” Kyte added.
The post As Paris Agreement enters tougher era, new alliances urged to step up appeared first on Climate Home News.
As Paris Agreement enters tougher era, new alliances urged to step up
In recent years, the monsoon season in Pakistan has taken a new and dangerous turn.
July and August typically bring high levels of rainfall across the country, and while flooding isn’t uncommon, the extent and severity could be readily predicted.
These patterns have now changed. In 2022, extreme rainfall swept Pakistan and huge swathes of the country were under water. Sindh province experienced levels of rain 508% above average for the time of year.
Extreme weather in Pakistan is becoming the norm. The past 15 years have brought widespread flooding, loss of life and billions in financial costs. A post-disaster report, produced by the Pakistan Government, stated that the 2022 floods were “a wake-up call for systemic changes to address the underlying vulnerabilities to natural hazards”, citing the country’s lack of climate-resilient infrastructure.
But heavy rainfall is only one of the water-related issues that Pakistan faces. In a country with huge geographical diversity, from sweltering deserts to freezing mountain tops, the water stresses are equally as varied. In many regions the key concern is a lack of reliable, clean water that can be used to grow crops and feed families.
We must invest in early warning systems to tackle crises like Kenya’s drought
The risks of the Indus
The Indus River plays a critical role in Pakistan. This major artery travels almost the entire length of the country, an estimated 2,000 km, from the Himalayas to the Arabian Sea. It is a crucial economic lever, supporting nearly 90% of Pakistan’s food production and 25% of its overall GDP. What happens to this river – both human and natural impacts – has huge consequences for the rest of the country.
The government and civil society agree that urgent action is required to protect Pakistan’s fragile water resources. A new adaptation project – SAFER Pakistan – is seeking to address these concerns with solutions that can be used to solve similar climate-related issues elsewhere.
The US$ 10 million project is led by ICIMOD, an intergovernmental research centre, alongside UNICEF, and financed by the Adaptation Fund. The intention is to tackle six key issues that people face in the Indus Basin: cryosphere risks, drying springs, groundwater, pollution, unsustainable water use, and community resilience.
In practice this means exploring different solutions that put communities in control of their own adaptive capacity. One solution under development is the use of community early warning systems.
Pakistan’s ‘monster disaster’ brings climate compensation into focus
A warning sign
According to researchers, early warning systems “aim to empower affected communities against hazards and help them to sufficiently prepare before disasters strike.”
The northern provinces of Pakistan – Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – are the main focus for testing these systems. In this mountainous region the Indus is fed by thousands of glaciers which sustain water flow during the dry season. At the same time, increased temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns are changing how these glaciers behave, leading to avalanches, increased snowmelt, and landslides.
As glaciers start to melt due to climate change, they can form large lakes high up on the mountain that can pose a serious threat to the communities living below. When these natural dams fail, huge quantities of water come careening down the mountain, a phenomenon called glacial lake outburst flood.
The SAFER project is exploring how to use local knowledge and observations of the mountain to ensure people know how and when to evacuate when these outbursts occur. This human intelligence will be combined with data from remote sensors to save lives and livelihoods. In total, over 435,000 people will be impacted by the project.
“Early warning systems often serve as the backbone of a multi-faceted response to reduce climate disaster risk,” commented Mikko Ollikainen, head of the Adaptation Fund. “But local information is often just as valuable as the real-time data you receive from sensors or satellites,” he added.
Climate disasters challenge right to safe and adequate housing
Shaping an effective response
Community early warning systems – together with other preventive adaptation measures – are proving a popular solution to extreme weather events.
A separate adaptation project in the mountains of Central Asia is grappling with the same problem of glacial flooding. In this case, with US$6.5 million in funding from the Adaptation Fund, UNESCO has been implementing early warning systems across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan for the past five years, with considerable success.
Diana Aripkhanova, a project officer at UNESCO, and based in Kazakhstan, told Climate Home that glacier lake outburst floods “represent an increasing climate-related hazard across the high mountain regions of Central Asia”.
“These events can trigger destructive floods and debris flows that affect downstream communities, infrastructure, and livelihoods,” she added.
The project utilises real-time data drawn from weather monitoring stations with community preparedness to shape a fast and effective response to life-threatening flooding. This includes training people on evacuation routes, safe locations and simulation drills. In addition, the project has tried preventative measures such as planting hundreds of trees in valleys prone to landslides to provide greater stabilisation.
In total, four early warning systems have been installed across the four countries involved in the project covering seven high-risk areas. As a result, UNESCO estimates these systems are protecting over 100,000 people.
“Early warning systems are a key risk reduction measure, allowing communities to evacuate in time and reduce potential loss of life and damage to assets,” added Aripkhanova.
Community participation
The active role of each community is built into these interventions. Ensuring local people are core contributors is seen as crucial to building long-term climate resilience.
These communities are witnessing the threats from climate change materialise on a yearly basis, and researchers are now tapping into that understanding when implementing adaptation projects.
After the 2022 floods, Pakistan’s development minister, Ahsan Iqbal, wrote that “there is an opportunity to do things differently” and that “enhancing Pakistan’s resilience to shocks and stresses amidst climate change, especially for the poorest…is essential for the country’s future.”
The climate shocks remain as strong as ever, but using the right tools and simple solutions can soften the blow when they occur.
Adam Wentworth is a freelancer writer based in Brighton, UK
The post Early warning systems are saving lives in Central Asia appeared first on Climate Home News.
From the Amazon to the Mekong, migratory freshwater fish underpin food security for millions, but over 300 species need urgent conservation intervention, warns a new UN report.
Beneath the surface of the planet’s rivers and lakes, the historically heaving migrations of freshwater fish are thinning out. The blubbery-lipped Siamese giant carp of Asia’s Mekong River, the mottled brown goonch of India’s Ganges and the ancient-in-appearance beluga sturgeon of Europe’s Danube River are declining.
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