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The UK’s electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, new Carbon Brief analysis shows, with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade.

This is because the UK has phased out coal and is now getting less than half as much electricity from burning fossil fuels as a decade ago, while renewable generation has more than doubled.

In total, fossil fuels made up just 29% of the UK’s electricity in 2024 – the lowest level on record – while renewables reached a record-high 45% and nuclear was another 13%.

As a result, each unit of electricity generated in 2024 was associated with an average of just 124g of CO2, compared with a “carbon intensity” of 419gCO2 per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2014.

Other key insights from the data include:

  • In 2024, the country generated just 91 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity from fossil fuels – mainly gas, as coal was phased out in September – down from 203TWh in 2014 (-55%).
  • Renewable sources more than doubled from 65TWh in 2014 to 143TWh in 2024 (+122%).
  • Gas-fired power stations remained the UK’s single-largest source of electricity in 2024, generating some 88TWh (28%), just ahead of wind at 84TWh (26%).
  • The remaining sources of electricity in 2024 were nuclear (41TWh, 13%), biomass (40TWh, 13%), imports (33TWh, 11%) and solar (14TWh, 4%).
  • Some 61% of electricity – or 68% excluding imports – came from clean sources, both records, but a long way off the government’s target of at least 95% clean power by 2030.
  • The emissions associated with UK electricity supplies has fallen from 150m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) in 2014 to below 40MtCO2 in 2024, down 74%.
  • The reduction in the carbon intensity of electricity means that an electric vehicle (EV) now has lifecycle CO2 savings of 70% over a petrol car, up from only 50% in 2014.
  • Similarly, a household using a heat pump instead of a gas boiler is now cutting its heat-related CO2 emissions by 84% per year, rather than only 45% in 2014.

While figures from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) show wind having generated more electricity than gas in 2024, these numbers exclude significant amounts of gas generation, particularly from “combined heat and power” units at industrial sites.

When accounting for all plants burning gas for power in the UK, the fuel remained as the single-largest source of electricity in 2024, slightly ahead of wind.

However, increasing wind power capacity as new projects are completed in the coming months – and below-average wind speeds in 2024 – mean wind is likely to generate more electricity than gas in 2025.

Carbon Brief has published an annual analysis of the UK’s electricity generation in 2023, 2021, 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016.

Cleanest ever

Having risen to global dominance on the back of coal-fired industrial might, the UK has made significant progress in cleaning up its power supplies over the past 75 years.

It opened the world’s first civil nuclear power plant in the 1950s, burned oil to generate electricity in the 1960s, made a “dash for gas” in the 1990s, and built renewables in the 2000s and 2010s.

In addition, electricity demand has been falling for nearly two decades, as appliances have become more efficient and the economy has shifted away from heavy industry.

These shifts culminated in the closure of the UK’s last coal-fired power station, at Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire, in September of 2024. This ended a 142-year era of burning the fuel for electricity, and made the UK the first country in the G7 to completely phase out coal power.

The end of coal power, combined with the rise of renewables, means the UK’s electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, as shown in the figure below.

Specifically, the carbon intensity of electricity fell to just 124gCO2/kWh in 2024. This is 70% lower than it was in 2014 when each unit of electricity was associated with 419gCO2/kWh.

Carbon intensity of UK electricity generation, gCO2/kWh, 1951-2024.
Carbon intensity of UK electricity generation, gCO2/kWh, 1951-2024. Source: Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), NESO and Carbon Brief analysis.

Combined with a reduction in demand, the emissions associated with UK electricity supplies have dropped from 150MtCO2 in 2014 to less than 40MtCO2 in 2024, a reduction of 74%. This includes emissions embedded in imported electricity and lifecycle emissions associated with imported biomass.

Under the government’s target for clean power by 2030, the carbon intensity of electricity generation should fall by another two-thirds by the end of the decade, according to NESO.

In its advice on how to reach the target, NESO set out pathways to clean power by 2030 that would see carbon intensity falling to 50gCO2/kWh or lower, depending on how it is measured.

This will be a very significant challenge. Nevertheless, the power sector has already been transformed over the past decade. It was the UK’s largest source of CO2 until 2014 and is now only the fifth largest, after transport, buildings, industry and agriculture.

Fossil fuel decline

The swift reductions in the carbon intensity of UK electricity are due to a rapid shift away from burning fossil fuels to generate power.

In addition to phasing out coal power, the UK has also seen significant reductions in the amount of gas generation over the past decade, while oil-fired electricity generation is negligible.

In total, fossil-fired power generation has fallen by more than half in the past decade. It has dropped from 203TWh in 2014 to 91TWh in 2024 (-55%), reaching the lowest level since 1955.

This reduction is illustrated in the figure below, which shows how the decline of fossil fuel generation has mainly been offset by the rise of renewables.

Combined electricity generation from wind, biomass, solar and hydro has more than doubled from 65TWh in 2014 to 143TWh in 2024 (+122%). Combined with falls for coal and gas, this means that renewables now generate significantly (57%) more electricity in the UK than fossil fuels.

UK electricity generation by type, TWh, 1920-2024.
UK electricity generation by type, TWh, 1920-2024. Source: DESNZ, NESO and Carbon Brief analysis.

Notably, the carbon intensity of electricity did not fall during the 2000s, because nuclear generation was starting to decline as the nation’s oldest reactors closed down.

With renewables only just starting to ramp up in this period, the country turned back to fossil fuels to replace lost nuclear generation.

In contrast, carbon intensity has fallen rapidly since 2014, despite further nuclear retirements. Nuclear decline and the coal phase out have been more than offset by renewables, imports and falling demand, meaning gas use has also dropped, as shown in the figure below.

Change in UK electricity generation by fuel, TWh, 2014-2024.
Change in UK electricity generation by fuel, TWh, 2014-2024. Source: DESNZ, NESO and Carbon Brief analysis.

While looking ahead to 2030 and beyond, electricity demand is expected to rise as transport and heat are increasingly electrified via EVs and heat pumps (see below).

According to NESO’s recent advice on reaching clean power by 2030, demand for electricity is expected to grow 11% by 2030 and to nearly double by 2050.

Wind powered

Wind has seen the largest increase of any power source in the UK over the past decade. Moreover, it is expected to form the backbone of the nation’s electricity system by 2030.

The rise of wind power and the decline of fossil fuels means that the UK now gets nearly as much electricity from wind as from gas, as shown in the figure below.

Electricity generation by source, TWh, 2012-2024.
Electricity generation by source, TWh, 2012-2024. Source: DESNZ, NESO and Carbon Brief analysis.

Notably, the rise in wind power output has levelled off over the past two years. The main reason for this is that very little new wind capacity has been added.

In 2022, the UK added 3.5 gigawatts (GW) of new wind capacity, including 3.2GW of offshore wind. This dropped to 1.6GW in 2023, of which 1.1GW came from the Seagreen offshore windfarm off the coast of Scotland, which is currently the nation’s largest and the third-largest in the UK.

However, no new offshore windfarms were added in 2024 and only 0.7GW of new onshore capacity was built, mainly the 0.4GW Viking project in the Shetland Islands.

A further reason for the levelling off in wind power output is that windspeeds have been below average for the past two years.

October and November 2024 have seen particularly poor wind conditions in the UK, respectively 7% and 22% below average – and it has been calm elsewhere in Europe too.

Nevertheless, a new record for wind generation was hit on 19 December 2024, with output reaching 22.5GW for the first time, according to NESO.

National Energy System Operator on X: Great Britain has achieved a new maximum wind record for the second time this week

Several large new offshore windfarms are under construction and due to open in 2025 or 2026.

These include Dogger Bank A, a 1.2GW development in the North Sea due to open next year, as are the 0.9GW Moray West and 0.5GW Neart na Goithe windfarms off Scotland.

In 2026, these projects are due to be followed by the 1.2GW Dogger Bank B and 1.4GW Sofia windfarms, also in the mid-North Sea region.

Given these new developments and the likelihood that windspeeds will return towards average levels, it is likely that the UK will get more electricity from wind than from gas in 2025.

Biomass is the second largest source of renewable electricity in the UK, generating 40TWh in 2024. This is up 17% from 34TWh in 2023, but roughly the same as in 2022.

The UK’s largest biomass generator, the Drax former coal plant in Yorkshire, had seen subdued output in recent years due to planned outages for refurbishment.

Note that Drax only accounts for around a third of biomass generation, with other biomass power sources, including landfill gas, sewage gas and anaerobic digestion of organic waste.

The UK’s net imports of electricity also reached a record high in 2024, with cheaper prices on the continent and new interconnector capacity meaning more power flowed into the country.

Lower lifecycle

The UK’s cleaner electricity generation in 2024 makes electrified heat and transport far more beneficial in terms of reducing CO2 emissions.

For example, an average petrol car in the UK generates 2.7 tonnes of CO2 (tCO2) per year. In 2014, an EV would have generated 830kg of CO2 – but in 2024 this was just 245kg.

Based on the CO2 intensity of electricity in 2014, it would have taken 16,000 miles (2.2 years) for an EV to pay off the “carbon debt” associated with producing its battery, relative to a petrol car.

Based on the cleaner electricity generated in 2024, this payback is just 12,000 miles (1.6 years).

Put another way, an EV driven on 2014 electricity across its full lifetime would have had lifecycle CO2 emissions that were 50% lower than a petrol car. Now, the lifecycle saving is 70%.

There have been similar benefits for CO2 emissions from household energy use, particularly those that use an electric heat pump.

In 2014, a household with average demand would have been responsible for 1.1tCO2 from its electricity use. Today, that figure has fallen to 0.3tCO2.

For a household with a heat pump, emissions from home heating will have fallen from 1.4tCO2 in 2014 to just 0.4tCO2 in 2024. This means that instead of cutting their annual CO2 emissions from heat by 45%, as they were in 2014, they are now reducing their CO2 output by 84%.

Methodology

The figures in the article are from Carbon Brief analysis of data from DESNZ Energy Trends chapter 5 and chapter 6, as well as from NESO. The figures from NESO are for electricity supplied to the grid in Great Britain only and are adjusted here to include Northern Ireland.

In Carbon Brief’s analysis, the NESO numbers are also adjusted to account for electricity used by power plants on site and for generation by plants not connected to the high-voltage national grid.

NESO already includes estimates for onshore windfarms, but does not cover industrial gas combined heat and power plants and those burning landfill gas, waste or sewage gas.

Carbon intensity figures from 2012 onwards are taken directly from NESO. Pre-2012 estimates are based on the NESO methodology, taking account of fuel use efficiency for earlier years.

The carbon intensity methodology accounts for lifecycle emissions from biomass. It includes emissions for imported electricity, based on the daily electricity mix in the country of origin.

DESNZ historical electricity data, including years before 2012, is adjusted to align with other figures and combined with data on imports from a separate DESNZ dataset. Note that the data prior to 1951 only includes “major” power producers.

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Analysis: UK’s electricity was cleanest ever in 2024

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Germany election 2025: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change

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A federal election is taking place in Germany on 23 February, following the collapse of the coalition government at the end of last year.

Germans will vote to elect 630 members of the nation’s parliament.

Polling suggests there will be a political shift to the right, with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the lead and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) set to make significant gains.

A “traffic light” coalition of parties has ruled since 2021, led by the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), alongside the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party (FDP).

However, successive crises led to its breakup at the end of 2024, when the liberal, free market-oriented FDP split from the rest.

This prompted a vote of no confidence by the German parliament, which, in turn, triggered a snap election several months earlier than previously scheduled.

The coalition government has been plagued by ideological differences, particularly between the FDP and its two centre-left partners.

Climate policies were at the heart of many of the disputes. 

The centre-left SPD and Greens have broadly favoured more public spending on climate issues, while the FDP is opposed to state intervention of any sort.

In the interactive grid below, Carbon Brief tracks the commitments made by each of the main parties in their election manifestos, across a range of issues related to climate and energy.

The parties covered are:

  • Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU): The centre-right CDU and its regional Bavarian “sister party”, CSU, has been the dominant political force in modern Germany and is currently polling highest ahead of the election.
  • Social Democratic Party (SPD): The centre-left SPD has led the ruling coalition in Germany since the last election in 2021 and has traditionally been the other dominant party in the nation’s politics.
  • Green Party: The centre-left and environmentalist Greens have been part of the coalition government since 2021.
  • Free Democratic Party (FDP): The FDP is an economically liberal party that prioritises free markets and privatisation. It was part of the coalition government, but its departure at the end of 2024 ultimately triggered the federal election.
  • Left Party: In recent years, this left-wing, democratic-socialist party has lost much of its support base in the east of the country.
  • Alternative for Germany (AfD): The far-right party has become a major force in the country’s politics over the past decade, particularly in eastern Germany.
  • Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW): The party was only founded last year, as an offshoot of the Left Party, but it has rapidly risen in popularity with a left-wing economic message and a conservative approach to some social and cultural issues.

Each entry in the grid represents a direct quote from a manifesto document.

Net-zero and climate framing

Climate action has become a divisive topic in German politics.

This is evident in the major parties’ manifestos, which range from supporting more ambitious net-zero goals to outright climate scepticism.

Germany is currently aiming to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045, with interim targets including a 65% cut by 2030.

Government climate advisors on the Council of Experts on Climate Change have stated that the nation is on track to miss the 2030 target.

Despite starting out with ambitious aims, the coalition’s climate progress has faltered, with the FDP successfully pushing for weaker climate policies. Moreover, a major court ruling curtailed the government’s climate spending by enforcing Germany’s limit on debt. 

Amid these wider tensions, Germany’s two traditionally dominant parties still want to retain the nation’s headline climate target. The CDU, which is leading the polls in the run-up to election day, commits to meeting the Paris Agreement goals in its manifesto, saying its sights are “firmly set” on net-zero by 2045.

The SPD, which is currently third in the polls and likely to end up in coalition with the CDU, also supports the 2045 net-zero target, as well as the interim goals.

However, the two parties differ substantially in their approach to meeting the 2045 target. The CDU prioritises carbon pricing and rejects the tougher policies to decarbonise heating and transport favoured by the SPD. (See: Heating dispute and Combustion engine phaseout.)

Meanwhile, the AfD manifesto repeatedly questions the “supposed scientific consensus” on “man-made climate change”. The party, which is currently second in the polls, “therefore rejects every policy and every tax that is related to alleged climate protection”.

Mainstream German parties across the spectrum have long agreed to a “firewall” against far-right groups, meaning they will not form coalitions with the AfD. However, the CDU recently sparked controversy when it backed an anti-immigration policy with the AfD.

The Green Party also supports the 2045 net-zero target in its manifesto, emphasising Germany’s status as the EU member state with the highest emissions. The Left Party goes further, calling for a 2040 net-zero goal.

As for the FDP, its manifesto argues for the 2045 net-zero goal to be pushed back to 2050, stating that this would align Germany with the EU target. Prior to exiting the coalition government last year, the party had demanded this policy change, claiming that it would be a way to boost the German economy.

(Germany already revised its net-zero target, bringing it forward by five years, following a supreme court ruling in 2021 that its 2050 goal was insufficient. Moreover, even with a later goal, Germany would still need to align with wider EU targets, meaning its climate policies may not change much due to its “effort sharing” obligations.)

Finally, the BSW is not specific about when the net-zero goal should be achieved, but pushes for a “departure from the wishful thinking of quickly achieving complete climate neutrality”.

It does not reject climate policies outright, stating that climate change should be “taken seriously”. However, it frames many climate policies as being “extremely expensive and often unrealistic”.

Heating dispute

Home heating has become a major political issue in Germany. Along with transport, buildings make up one of the key German sectors that have repeatedly missed their decarbonisation goals, prompting the coalition government to take action.

Towards the end of 2023, the German parliament passed an amendment to the Building Energy Act, meaning that newly installed heating systems had to be powered by at least 65% renewable energy. 

This covered heat pumps, “hydrogen-ready” gas boilers and other low-carbon systems. There are caveats to ensure the law is phased in gradually in different areas and types of homes, starting with new builds.

The amendment had been watered down compared to the coalition’s initial proposal, with allowances for people to keep gas boilers for longer. This followed relentless campaigning by the AfD and the right-leaning tabloid newspaper Bild, which dubbed the policy the “heizhammer” – or “heating hammer”.

There were also attacks from within the coalition, with the FDP criticising the law proposed by its partners in the Greens and SDP. Opponents framed the policy as an excessive burden on consumers.

These disputes are reflected in the election manifestos, with many parties outright rejecting the amended law. The CDU, FDP and AfD all say they would abolish it, as does the populist left BSW.

Meanwhile, the Green Party pledges to provide more government support for the installation of new heating systems by covering up to 70% of the price. The Left Party commits to covering 100% of the cost for low-income households.

(The current law covers 30% of the cost as a starting subsidy, with more available for low-income households and people who replace their boilers before 2028.)

Combustion engine phaseout

Several German political parties are pushing back against the EU-wide ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, which is set to come into effect in 2035.

The CDU says the “ban on combustion engines must be reversed”, while the AfD says the “one-sided preference for electromobility must be stopped immediately”.

(EVs are “likely crucial” for tackling transport emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC].)

The FDP and the BSW also argue that the 2035 phaseout date should be dropped, with less focus on the transition to electric cars. (This is in spite of Germany being the second-biggest manufacturer of electric cars in the world.)

These parties also favour getting rid of supposed “anti-car” policies. For example, they oppose speed limits on the German “autobahns” and support funding for alternative fuels, such as synthetic fuels.

The issue with ending the 2035 ban on new combustion-engine cars is that this policy is set at the EU level. Far-right and centre-right coalitions within the EU, including German parties, have been pushing hard to weaken the ban across the bloc. 

However, the centre-left parties that may end up forming a coalition with the CDU, notably the SPD, stand by the 2035 phaseout date.

There is growing pressure on Germany’s car industry, linked to global competition and slow economic growth. Some German industry figures have stressed the need for consistent policy signals from the government, regarding the transition to electric vehicles.

Clean energy and fossil fuels

Broadly speaking, German parties on the left tend to be more supportive of renewables, while strongly opposing nuclear power. Those on the right are generally more open to nuclear and in some cases coal power.

Germany, which uses more coal than any other EU member state, has a coal power phaseout date of 2038. This is supported by the CDU and the FDP, but the Greens and the Left Party want a quicker phaseout by 2030.

(When the coalition government formed in 2021, the parties agreed to “ideally” move the coal phaseout date to 2030, but this has not happened formally. The SPD manifesto does not include any mention of coal power,)

Only the AfD advocates for the construction of new coal power plants, framing them as filling a gap until new nuclear plants are built.

Last year, Germany closed down its final nuclear reactors, bringing an end to a long-term plan to phase out the power source. However, nuclear power continues to be a politicised topic, with some arguing that its continued use is necessary to ensure the nation’s energy security.

Notably, the CDU suggests in its manifesto that it is open to reviving nuclear power in the future. It proposes an “expert review” around restarting closed plants and advocates for research on advanced nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors.

Despite this wording, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has conceded that it is unlikely any old reactors will be restarted. This echoes views expressed by German utility companies and energy experts.

Both the CDU and the SPD support the expansion of renewables in their manifestos. The Greens include a specific target to achieve a net-zero electricity grid by 2035. By contrast, the AfD calls for an end to wind power expansion, in favour of other technologies.

Finally, both the far-right AfD and the BSW say the German government should repair the damaged Nord Stream pipelines in order to import what the BSW refers to as “cheap” gas from Russia. (The Baltic Sea pipelines were blown up in 2022 under mysterious circumstances.)

Germany has tried to wean itself off Russian gas since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, with considerable success. However, both the AfD and the BSW are more open to cooperating with Russia, and less supportive of Ukraine, than mainstream German parties.

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Guest post: How atmospheric rivers are bringing rain to West Antarctica 

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“Atmospheric rivers” are bringing rain to the frozen slopes of the West Antarctic ice sheet, hitting the ice shelves that play a major role in holding back rapidly retreating glaciers.

In a new study, my colleagues and I show how rain is occurring in sub-zero temperatures due to these “rivers in the sky” – long, narrow plumes of air which transport heat and moisture from the tropics to the mid-latitudes and poles.

Rain in Antarctica is significant, not only because it is a stark indicator of climate change, but because it remains an under-studied phenomenon which could impact ice shelves.

Ice shelves in Antarctica are important gatekeepers of sea level rise.

They act as a buffer for glaciers that flow off the vast ice sheet, slowing the rate at which ice is released into the ocean.

In the study, we explore the causes of rain falling on ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea embayment region, which stand in front of the critically important Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers.

Researchers have warned the collapse of ice shelves in this region could trigger the loss of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet over several centuries.

Rivers in the sky

Atmospheric rivers are typically associated with bringing extreme rainfall to the mid-latitudes, but, in the frigid Antarctic, they can deliver metres of snow in just a few days. 

In West Antarctica, atmospheric rivers deliver a disproportionate quantity of the year’s snowfall. Research shows they account for around 13% of annual snowfall totals, despite occurring on just a few days per year.

But what makes atmospheric rivers in Antarctica so interesting is that snow is only part of the story. In extreme cases, they can also bring rain.

To explore how extreme precipitation affects the Amundsen Sea embayment region, we focused on two events associated with atmospheric rivers in 2020. The summer case took place over a week in February and the winter case over six days in June.

We used three regional climate models to simulate the two extreme weather events around the Thwaites and Pine Island ice shelves, then compared the results with snowfall observations.

During both the winter and summer cases, we find that atmospheric rivers dumped tens of metres of snow over the course of a week or so.

Meanwhile, the quantities of rain driven by these events were not insignificant. We observed up to 30mm of rain on parts of the Thwaites ice shelf in summer and up to 9mm in winter.

Amundsen sea, map.
A map of the Amundsen Sea embayment region in West Antarctica. Source: Produced by the British Antarctic Survey’s Mapping and Geographic Information Centre, 2025.

A mountain to climb

Antarctica’s cold climate and steep, icy topography make it unique. It also makes the region prone to rain in sub-zero temperatures.

The first reason for this is the foehn effect, which is when air forced over a mountain range warms as it descends on the downward slope.

Commonly observed across Antarctica, it is an important cause of melting over ice shelves on the Antarctic peninsula, the northernmost point of the continent. 

When air passes over the mountainous terrain of the West Antarctic ice sheet during atmospheric river events, temperatures near the surface of the ice shelves can climb above the melting point of 0C.

This can accentuate the formation of rain and drizzle that stays liquid below 0C – also known as “supercooled drizzle”.

Another factor which leads to liquid drizzle, rather than snow, in sub-zero conditions is a lack of dust and dirt – particles which are usually needed to trigger the formation of ice crystals in clouds.

In the pristine Antarctic, these particles – which act as “ice nuclei” – are few and far between. That means that pure liquid water can exist even when temperatures are below 0C.

The origins of rain over ice shelves

It is easy to assume that rain that reaches the surface in Antarctica is just snow that has melted after falling through a warm layer of air caused by the foehn effect. Indeed, this is what we initially supposed.

But our research shows that more rain reaches the surface of Antarctica when the air near the ground is within a few degrees of freezing.

At times when the foehn effect is strongest, there is often little or no rainfall, because it evaporates before it gets a chance to reach the surface.

However, we saw rain falling well above the warm layer of air near the surface, where temperatures were universally below 0C – and, in some cases, as low as -11C.

Rare rain

Rain in Antarctica is a rare occurrence. The region’s normally frigid temperatures mean that most precipitation over the continent falls as snow.

However, exactly how rare rain is in the region remains relatively unknown, because there are virtually zero measurements of rainfall in Antarctica.

There are a number of reasons for this – rain falls infrequently, and it is very difficult to measure in the hostile Antarctic environment.

Our results show that extreme events such as atmospheric rivers can bring rain. And it is likely that rain will become a more common occurrence in the future as temperatures rise and extreme weather events occur more frequently.

However, until rain starts being measured in Antarctica, scientists will have to rely entirely on models to predict rain, as we did in this research.

It is also not yet known exactly how rain could impact ice in Antarctica.

We do know that rain falling on snow darkens the surface, which can enhance melting, leading to greater ice losses. Meanwhile, rain that refreezes in the snowpack or trickles to the base of the ice can change the way that glaciers flow, impacting the resilience of ice shelves to fracture.

So, if we want to understand the future of the frozen continent, we need to start thinking about rain too. Because while rain may be rare now, it may not be for long.

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Analysis: 95% of countries miss UN deadline to submit 2035 climate pledges

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Around 95% of countries have missed a UN deadline to submit new climate pledges for 2035, Carbon Brief analysis shows.

Just 10 of the 195 parties signed up to the landmark Paris Agreement have published their new emissions-cutting plans, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), by the 10 February deadline.

Countries missing the deadline represent 83% of global emissions and nearly 80% of the world’s economy, according to Carbon Brief analysis.

The COP30 summit in Brazil this November is being billed as a key moment for countries to increase their efforts towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.

In a 6 February speech, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the “vast majority of countries have indicated that they [will] submit new plans this year” and “taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense”.

He added that countries need to submit their plans “at the latest…by September” in order to be included in the UN’s next global “synthesis” assessment of climate action ahead of COP30.

‘Quantum leap’

Back in 2015, almost every nation on Earth adopted the Paris Agreement, a landmark climate deal aimed at keeping temperatures “well-below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, with an ambition of keeping them at 1.5C, by the end of the century.

As part of the agreement, countries committed to submitting new plans describing what they will do to cut emissions and adapt to climate change every five years. These are known as NDCs.

Countries also agreed to assess their progress towards meeting the Paris goals in a five-yearly “global stocktake” and then increase their efforts accordingly.

This “review and ratchet” step is key to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. This is because, when the agreement was adopted 10 years ago, it was clear that countries were far off track for meeting their goals.

They hoped this gap could be closed over time, based on future policy efforts and technologies. As such, the so-called “ratchet mechanism” requires each round of pledges to go further than the last and to represent countries’ “highest possible ambition”. 

The first two rounds of NDCs took place in 2015 and 2020-21. The 10 February 2025 deadline for the third round of NDCs was confirmed as part of a “global stocktake” of climate action conducted in 2023. The deadline is nine months ahead of the start of COP30.

A section of the first “global stocktake”, agreed by countries at COP28 in Dubai
A section of the first “global stocktake”, agreed by countries at COP28 in Dubai, confirming that countries should submit their 2035 climate pledges in February 2025. Credit: UNFCCC

According to the most recent UN emissions gap report, countries remain largely off track for meeting the Paris goals, with 2035 climate pledges needing to deliver a “quantum leap in ambition” to give the world a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

However, just 10 of the 195 parties to the Paris Agreement have met the UN deadline to publish 2035 climate pledges by 10 February.

Only two of the group of seven (G7) nations – the US and the UK – have come forward with new climate plans. However, the US submitted its NDC before the inauguration last month of Donald Trump, who has already begun the process of delivering his campaign promise to withdraw the nation from the Paris Agreement.

These countries, along with the other nations to meet the deadline – Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay, Andorra, Ecuador and Saint Lucia – are visualised on the map below.

Countries meeting a UN deadline to submit 2035 climate pledges by 10 February.
Countries meeting a UN deadline to submit 2035 climate pledges by 10 February. Credit: Tom Prater for Carbon Brief

Analysis by climate research group Climate Action Tracker has found that the new 2035 NDCs of Brazil, the UAE, the US and Switzerland are “not compatible” with a pathway for limiting global warming to 1.5C.

It also found that the UK’s new NDC is “1.5C compatible”, but noted that the nation would need to increase its spending on helping other countries tackle their emissions in order to do its “fair share” towards reaching the Paris goals. 

The group has not yet analysed New Zealand’s NDC, but a climate expert within the country described it as “shockingly unambitious”.

Major polluters missing

Many of the world’s largest emitters have cited technical issues, economic pressures and political uncertainty as reasons why they have not been able to meet the UN deadline.

EU officials said the bloc’s lengthy process for approving new legislation made it “basically impossible” to meet the deadline.

China has not confirmed when it will release its climate plan.

Unnamed Indian officials have said they are in “no hurry” to release the nation’s NDC and might submit it in the “second half of this year”, according to the Indian Express. They added that India’s NDC will “reflect the disappointment of the climate finance outcome at COP29 in Baku”, a “hint” that it is “unlikely to be a significant or ambitious upgrade of climate actions”.

Canada, Japan and Indonesia have all released draft versions of their 2035 climate plans, but have yet to submit them to the UN. Canada’s plan has faced criticism for setting an emissions pledge that is less ambitious than what its official climate advisors recommended.

Russia has not made any public comments about when it will release its new NDC. Its last major climate update came in 2021, when it pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2060.

Australia has indicated it will delay the release of its NDC until after the country’s election in May, “in part due to uncertainty about the ramifications of the US presidential election”, the Guardian reported.

At the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in 2024, a group including Canada, Chile, the EU, Georgia, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland pledged to release “1.5C-aligned” NDCs, but did not offer details on how this would be achieved or commit to meeting the February deadline.

History repeats

Seasoned COP watchers will note that it is the norm for the majority of countries to miss the deadline for their NDCs.

During the last round of pledges, only five countries met the February 2020 deadline, with most countries eventually publishing their pledges later in 2020 and 2021. (This was amid the Covid-19 pandemic.)

During a speech in Brazil on 6 February, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the “vast majority of countries have indicated they will submit new plans this year” and that he believed “countries are taking this extremely seriously”, adding:

“So taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense, properly outlining how they will contribute to this effort and therefore what rewards they will reap. At the latest, though, the [UN climate change] secretariat team needs to have them on their desks by September to include them in the NDC synthesis report, which will come out before the COP.”

The post Analysis: 95% of countries miss UN deadline to submit 2035 climate pledges appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Analysis: 95% of countries miss UN deadline to submit 2035 climate pledges

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