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The amount of UK electricity generated from fossil fuels fell 22% year-on-year in 2023 to the lowest level since 1957, Carbon Brief analysis reveals.

The 104 terawatt hours (TWh) generated from fossil fuels in 2023 is the lowest level in 66 years. Back then, Harold Macmillan was the UK prime minister and the Beatles’ John Lennon and Paul McCartney had just met for the first time.

Electricity from fossil fuels has now fallen by two-thirds (199TWh) since peaking in 2008. Within that total, coal has dropped by 115TWh (97%) and gas by 80TWh (45%).

These declines have been caused by the rapid expansion of renewable energy (up six-fold since 2008, some 113TWh) and by lower electricity demand (down 21% since 2008, some 83TWh).

As a result, fossil fuels made up just 33% of UK electricity supplies in 2023 – their lowest ever share – of which gas was 31%, coal just over 1% and oil just below 1%.

Low-carbon sources made up 56% of the total, of which renewables were 43% and nuclear 13%. The remainder is from imports (7%) and other sources (3%), such as waste incineration.

Overall, the electricity generated in the UK in 2023 had the lowest-ever carbon intensity, with an average of 162g of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour (gCO2/kWh).

This remains a long way from the government’s ambition for 95% low-carbon electricity by 2030 – just seven years from now – and a fully decarbonised grid by 2035.

Fossil falls

Historically, fossil-fuel generation rose steadily as the size of the UK’s economy expanded – and, relatedly, as demand for electricity grew.

The rise in demand for electricity paused during the late 1970s and 1980s, as the country’s economic situation and industrial relations worsened. Yet the upwards march soon resumed.

Electricity demand then started to “decouple” from economic growth in the early 2000s, leading to a peak in 2005. Since then, demand has dropped precipitously, falling from 396TWh in 2008 to 313TWh in 2023, as shown by the dark blue line in the figure below.

This reduction in demand of 83TWh (21%) is equivalent to more than three times the expected output of the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant, which is currently being built in Somerset.

Demand reductions are the result of a poorly understood combination of more efficient appliances and lighting, high prices driven by expensive gas and changes in the structure of the UK as it shifts to an ever more service-led rather than manufacturing-heavy economy.

(In the medium- to long-term, electricity demand is expected to rise as transport and heating are increasingly electrified using electric vehicles and heat pumps.)

While electricity demand was falling, the UK was also starting to rapidly scale its renewable energy capacity, primarily from wind, but also from solar and bioenergy.

As a result, renewable electricity output climbed six-fold from 23TWh in 2008 to 135TWh in 2023, shown by the red line in the chart below.

The combined impact of falling demand (-83TWh) and rising renewables (+113TWh) has acted as a pincer on electricity generation from fossil fuels, squeezing it from two directions.

Having peaked at 303TWh in 2008, the UK got just 104TWh of electricity from fossil fuels in 2023 – as shown by the steep black line in the figure below – a two-thirds reduction in 15 years. This takes fossil-fuel generation to its lowest level since 1957.

UK electricity from fossil fuels drops to lowest level since 1957
Annual UK electricity generation from fossil fuels (black) and renewables (red), TWh, as well as overall demand (dark blue). Source: DESNZ, BM Reports and Carbon Brief analysis.

In 1957, the Conservative party’s Harold Macmillan was elected UK prime minister in January following Anthony Eden’s resignation due to ill health.

That same year, the Central Electricity Generating Board was established ‘to keep the lights on’. It was responsible for electricity generation, transmission and bulk sales in England and Wales up until the electricity sector was privatised in the 1990s. 

The world’s first commercial nuclear power station, at Calder Hall in Cumbria, had just opened its second unit, yet fossil fuels still supplied 97% of the UK’s electricity.

Also that year, the Suez canal was reopened, “Sputnik 1” – the first artificial satellite to orbit Earth – was launched by the Soviet Union and the UK government unveiled plans to allow women to join the House of Lords for the first time.

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Shifting shares

For most of the past century, fossil fuels generated almost all of the UK’s electricity, as shown by the black line in the figure below. Fossil fuels – predominantly coal – made up 97% of the total in 1957, a figure that had barely changed for decades.

The rise of nuclear power (dark blue line) from the late 1950s onwards – after Calder Hall opened in 1956 – pushed the fossil fuel share downwards.

Yet electricity demand continued to grow and the earliest nuclear reactors were starting to shut down by the early 2000s, with only Sizewell B in Suffolk, in 1995, having replaced them.

With renewables still in their infancy, this meant that, in 2008, the UK was still getting 76% of its electricity from fossil fuels. Of this, 45% was from gas and 30% from coal.

Since then, fossil fuels’ share has dropped to a record-low 33% in 2023, being overtaken by renewables in the process (red line).

Renewables’ share reached a record high of 43% in 2023, with nuclear (13%, light blue line), imports (7%) and other sources (3%) making up the remainder.

Fossil fuels met a record-low 33% of UK electricity needs in 2023
Share of electricity generation from fossil fuels (black), renewables (red) and nuclear (light blue), %. Source: DESNZ, BM Reports and Carbon Brief analysis.

The total share from low-carbon sources – renewables and nuclear – was 56% in 2023. This was down one point from the record 57% share in 2022, as a result of a drop in nuclear output.

The current government’s ambition is to get 95% of the country’s electricity from low-carbon sources by 2030, which would mean an increase of 39 percentage points in seven years.

To date, the fastest rate of increase has been 25 percentage points in seven years, achieved between 2010 (23% low-carbon) and 2017 (48%).

The aim is then to fully decarbonise the grid by 2035. The opposition Labour Party’s aim is even more ambitious, hoping to fully decarbonise the electricity grid already by 2030. This would be a 44 percentage point increase in seven years.

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Renewable rise

The rise of renewables since 2008 has been nearly as steep as the fall for fossil fuels, as shown by the red line in the figure below.

Notably, however, since reaching 134TWh in 2020, renewables have effectively stood still, with output of 135TWh in 2023, matching the record 135TWh set in 2022.

This reflects the balance between continued increases in wind and solar capacity, variations in average weather conditions and reduced output in the past two years from bioenergy.

The 135TWh of renewable electricity in 2023 was made up of:

  • 82TWh from wind (up 2TWh year-on-year, a 2% increase);
  • 35TWh from bioenergy (down 5TWh and 13% from 2021 levels);
  • 14TWh from solar (up 2% year-on-year);
  • 5TWh from hydro (down 1TWh year-on-year, a 9% drop).

At the same time, coal has nearly disappeared from the UK electricity system, falling from 119TWh in 2008 to 4TWh in 2023 (down 115TWh, 97%), shown by the black line below.

Gas, meanwhile, is now down to levels rarely seen since the mid-1990s (grey line), falling from 178TWh in 2008 to just 98TWh in 2023 (down 80TWh, 45%).

Nuclear also continues to decline, reaching 41TWh in 2023, a 7TWh reduction year-on-year (15%) from already low levels, after Hinkley Point B in Somerset closed down and the remaining five stations were temporarily offline for planned maintenance outages.

Renewables are the largest contributor to UK electricity needs
Top: Annual UK electricity generation by source, TWh. Bottom: Share of electricity generation by source, %. The jump in generation in 1951 reflects a change in the scope of the data, which only included “major” power producers prior to that date. The spikes in 1984 reflect the substitution of coal with oil as part of the government’s strategy against the miners’ strikes. Source: DESNZ, BM Reports and Carbon Brief analysis.

Capacity for both onshore and offshore wind projects rose in 2023, by 0.6GW and 1.1GW, respectively.

Average wind speeds in the first 11 months of 2023 were well below the long-term average however, according to government figures, whereas 2022 had only been marginally below average. This muted overall generation growth over the last year somewhat. 

A windy December helped boost overall generation figures for the year, with a new wind generation provisionally set on 21 December according to National Grid ESO. Wind generation hit 21.8GW between 8:00 and 8:30 on 21 December, providing 56% of the generation mix.

Notably, only one offshore windfarm was completed in 2023 – the 1GW Seagreen development off the east coast of Scotland – whereas three projects totalling 3GW were commissioned in 2022.

In October 2023, Dogger Bank off the coast of Yorkshire sent power to the national grid for the first time. It will be the world’s largest offshore windfarm, at 3.6GW, when it is completed in 2026.

Nevertheless, the government’s ambition for 50GW of offshore wind by 2030 is in doubt after the latest auction for new renewable capacity failed to secure any additional projects.

For bioenergy, the 35TWh in 2023 was similar to the level delivered in 2022, but down from 40TWh in 2020 and 2021. Plant biomass – mainly woodchips – is around two-thirds of these annual totals.

The four wood-burning former coal units at the Drax plant in Yorkshire account for around one-third of power from bioenergy on their own. However, their output has been subdued in 2022 and 2023, with some reporting having raised questions about the incentives at play.

Meanwhile, electricity generation from solar power only increased by 2% in 2023, despite a surge in new capacity being connected to the grid.

The number of hours of sunshine during 2023 was roughly in line with the long-term average, government figures show, whereas 2022 had been unusually sunny.

According to figures from consultancy Rystad Energy cited by Drax Electric Insights, the UK’s solar capacity was expected to rise from 15GW at the start of 2023 to 18GW by the end of the year.

Recent growth in solar installations comes after an extended period of stagnation, with installed capacity having reached 13GW in 2018 and only climbing to 14GW in 2022.

Rystad Energy expects UK solar capacity to continue accelerating, topping 25GW in 2025.

The latest reduction in coal generation, down another 33% in 2023, came as three of the UK’s four remaining coal-fired power stations shut down.

Dr Simon Evans on X: Not sure if you noticed, but as of yesterday, the UK only had one coal-fired power station remaining
Dr Simon Evans on X: Not sure if you noticed, but as of yesterday, the UK only had one coal-fired power station remaining

West Burton in Nottinghamshire closed in March, then Drax in Yorkshire closed in April, followed by Kilroot in Northern Ireland at the end of September.

Only Ratcliffe in Nottinghamshire, operated by utility firm Uniper, remains operational. It plans to close in September 2024, ahead of the government’s ambition to end coal power by October 2024.

While the UK saw a major coal-to-gas transition in the 1990s “dash for gas”, recent reductions in coal use have been driven by renewables and reduced demand. These same forces have also been driving gas out of the mix.

The large drop in gas generation in 2023 of 27TWh (21%) reflects a combination of this longer-term trend with a one-off flip in the UK’s electricity imports.

The dip in the dark blue line for “oil, imports and other” in 2022 is due to the UK becoming a net electricity exporter that year for the first time ever.

Every year since the opening of the first “interconnector” linking the grids of the UK and France in 1986, the UK has been a net electricity importer – apart from 2022.

The switch in 2022 was due to widespread outages in the French nuclear fleet, with neighbouring countries including the UK picking up the slack.

In 2023, the UK reverted to being a net importer, buying 23TWh of electricity from countries including France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Norway. This was similar to 2021 (25TWh).

The switch from being a net exporter of 5TWh in 2022 to net imports of 23TWh in 2023 combined with steady output from renewables and falling demand to push down the need for fossil fuels.

The UK now has 8.4 gigawatts (GW) of interconnector capacity to link its electricity system with that of neighbouring countries. Some 4.4GW of this has been added in the past five years.

In addition, the 1.4GW Viking Link interconnector between the UK and Denmark was completed in late 2023 and was due to have started operating in late December.

Another 4.7GW has regulatory approval, with further projects totalling 5.6GW also planned.

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Cleanest power

With fossil fuels reaching a record-low 33% share and coal down to 1% of the total, the UK saw its lowest-carbon electricity mix ever in 2023.

The carbon intensity of electricity – in other words, the amount of CO2 associated with each unit of electricity – fell to a record-low 162gCO2/kWh in 2023, a reduction of 18% year-on-year.

This continues a longer-term trend, shown in the figure below. In the early years of the series, the reductions in carbon intensity reflect a shift towards more efficient power plants.

The expansion of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s was followed by the “dash for gas”, which is lower-carbon than coal. From around 2008, the decline is due to the rise of renewables.

Electricity generated in 2023 was the cleanest ever
Carbon intensity of UK electricity supplies, gCO/kWh. Source: DESNZ, BM Reports and Carbon Brief analysis.

The government had earlier set a goal of reducing the carbon intensity of electricity generation to below 100gCO2/kWh by 2030. Since then, the UK’s 2050 climate target has been strengthened from an 80% cut in emissions to a 100% cut – reaching net-zero by that date.

If the government reaches its aim of 95% low-carbon electricity by 2030 then the carbon intensity of generation would fall to well-below 100gCO2/kWh. Just how far below would depend on the contribution from bioenergy and whether CO2 associated with imported electricity is counted.

The figure above counts bioenergy lifecycle emissions and imports towards the total.

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Methodology

The figures in the article are from Carbon Brief analysis of data from DESNZ Energy Trends chapter 5 and chapter 6, as well as from BM Reports. The figures from BM Reports are for electricity supplied to the grid in Great Britain only and are adjusted to include Northern Ireland.

In Carbon Brief’s analysis, the BM Reports numbers are also adjusted to account for electricity used by power plants on site and for generation by plants not connected to the high-voltage national grid. This includes many onshore windfarms, as well as industrial gas combined heat and power plants and those burning landfill gas, waste or sewage gas.

The analysis of carbon intensity is based on the methodology published by National Grid ESO, but also takes account of fuel use efficiency for earlier years.

DESNZ historical electricity data, including years before 2009, is adjusted in line with other figures and combined with data on imports from a separate DESNZ dataset. Note that the data prior to 1951 only includes “major” power producers.

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Landmark deal to share Chile’s lithium windfall fractures Indigenous communities

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Rudecindo Espíndola’s family has been growing corn, figs and other crops for generations in the Soncor Valley in northern Chile, an oasis of green orchards in one of the driest places on Earth the Atacama desert.

Perched nearly 2,500 metres above sea level, his village, Toconao, means “lost corner” in the Kunza language of the Indigenous people who have lived and farmed the land in this remote spot for millennia.

“Our deep connection to this place is based on what we have inherited from our ancestors: our culture, our language,” said Espíndola, a member of a local research team that found evidence that people have inhabited the desert for more than 12,000 years.

This distant outpost is at the heart of the global rush for lithium, a silvery-white metal used to make batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and renewable energy storage that are vital to the world’s clean energy transition. The Atacama salt flat is home to about 25% of the world’s known lithium reserves, turning Chile into the world’s second-largest lithium producer after Australia.

For decades, the Atacama’s Indigenous Lickanantay people have protested against the expansion of the lithium industry, warning that the large evaporation ponds used to extract lithium from the brine beneath the salt flats are depleting scarce and sacred water supplies and destroying fragile desert ecosystems.

Espíndola joined the protests, fearing that competition for water could pose an existential threat to his community.

But last year, he was among dozens of Indigenous representatives who sat across the table from executives representing two Chilean mining giants to hammer out a governance model that gives Indigenous communities living close to lithium sites a bigger say over operations, and a greater share of the economic benefits.

A man wearing a black T-shirt and a hat stands in front of a tree
Rudecindo Espíndola stands in a green oasis near the village of Toconao in the Atacama desert (Photo: Francisco Parra)

A pioneering deal

The agreement is part of a landmark deal between state-owned copper miner Codelco and lithium producer the Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM) to extract lithium from the salt flats until 2060 through a joint venture called NovaAndino Litio.

The governance model that promises people living in Toconao and other villages around the salt flats millions of dollars in benefits and greater environmental oversight is the first of its kind in mineral-rich Chile, and has been hailed by industry experts as the start of a potential model for more responsible mining for energy transition metals.

NovaAndino told Climate Home News the negotiations with local communities represented an “unprecedented process that has allowed us to incorporate the territory’s vision early in the project’s design” and creates “a system of permanent engagement” with local communities.

The company added it will contribute to sustainable development in the area and help “the safeguarding of [the Lickanantay people’s] culture and environmental values”.

    For mining companies, such agreements could help reduce social conflicts and protests, which have delayed and stalled extraction in other parts of South America’s lithium-rich region, known as the lithium triangle.

    “Argentina and Bolivia could learn a lot from what we’re doing [here],” said Rodrigo Guerrero, a researcher at the Santiago-based Espacio Público think-tank, adding that adopting participatory frameworks early on could prevent them from “going through the entire cycle of disputes” that Chile has experienced.

    Justice at last?

    As part of the governance deal, NovaAndino has pledged to adopt technologies that will reduce water use and mitigate the environmental impacts of lithium extraction.

    It has also committed to hold more than 100 annual meetings with community representatives to build a “good faith” relationship, and an Indigenous Advisory Council will meet twice a year with the company’s sustainability committee to discuss its environmental strategy, company sources said. The meetings are due to begin next month.

    To oversee the agreement’s implementation, an assembly – composed of representatives from all 25 signatory communities – will track the project’s progress. In addition, NovaAndino will hold one-on-one meetings with each community to address issues such as the hiring of local people and the protection of Indigenous employees.

    A flamingo at the Chaxa Lagoon in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Espíndola said the deal, while far from perfect, was an important step forward.

    “Previously, Indigenous participation was ambiguous. Now we talk about participation at [every] hierarchical level of this process, a very strong empowerment for Indigenous communities,” said Espíndola, adding that it did not give local communities everything they had asked for. For instance, they will not hold veto power over NovaAndino’s decisions or have a formal shareholder role.

    But after years of conflict with mining companies, a form of “participatory justice is being done”, he said.

    Not everyone is convinced that the accord, pushed by Chile’s former leftist government, marks progress, however.

    “Not in our name”

    The negotiations have caused deep divisions among the Lickanantay, some of whom say greater engagement with mining companies will not stop irreparable damage to the salt flats on which their traditional way of life depends. Others fear the promise of more money will further erode community bonds.

    In January 2024, Indigenous communities from five villages closest to the mining operations, including Toconao, blocked the main access roads to the lithium extraction sites. They said the Council of Atacameño Peoples, which represents 18 Lickanantay communities and was leading discussions with the company, no longer spoke for them.

    Official transcripts of consultations on the extension of the lithium contracts and how to share the promised benefits reveal deep divisions. Tensions peaked when communities around the mining operations clashed over how to distribute the multimillion-dollar windfall, with villages closest to the mining sites demanding the largest share.

    Eventually, separate deals establishing a new governance framework over mining activities were reached between Codelco and SQM with 25 local communities, including a specific agreement for the five villages closest to the extraction sites.

    Codelco’s chairman Maximo Pacheco (Photo: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido)

    The division caused by the separate deal for the five villages “will cause historic damage” to the unity of the Atacama desert’s Indigenous peoples, said Hugo Flores, president of the Council of Atacameño Associations, a separate group representing farmers, herders and local workers who oppose the mining expansion.

    Sonia Ramos, 83, a renowned Lickanantay healer and well-known anti-mining activist, lamented the fracturing of social bonds over money, and for the sake of meeting government objectives.

    “There is fragmentation among the communities themselves. Everything has transformed into disequilibrium,” said the 83-year-old.

    “[NovaAndino] supposedly has economic significance for the country, but for us, it is the opposite,” she said.

    The company told Climate Home News it has “acted consistently” to promote “transparent, voluntary, and good-faith dialogue with the communities in the territory, recognising their diversity and autonomy, and always respecting their timelines and forms of participation”.

    A one-off deal or a model for others?

    The NovaAndino joint venture is a pillar of Chile’s strategy to double lithium production by 2031 and consolidate the copper-producing nation’s role in the clean energy transition as demand for battery minerals accelerates.

    Chile’s new far-right president, José Antonio Kast, who was sworn in last week, promised to respect the lithium contracts signed by his predecessor’s administration – including the governance model.

    Still, some experts say the splits over the new model highlight the need for legislation that mandates direct engagement and minimum community benefits for all large mining projects.

    “In the past, this has lent itself to clientelism, communities who negotiate best or arrive first get the better deal,” said Pedro Zapata, a programme officer in Chile for the Natural Resource Governance Institute.

    “This can be to the detriment of other communities with less strength. We cannot have first- and second-class citizens subject to the same industry,” he added.

    The government is already negotiating two more public-private partnerships to extract lithium with mining giant Rio Tinto, which it said would include a framework to engage with Indigenous communities and share some of the revenues. The details will need to be negotiated between local people, the government and the company.

    Sharing the benefits of mining

    Under the deal in the Atacama, NovaAndino will run SQM’s current lithium concessions until they expire in 2030 before seeking new permits to expand mining in the region under a vast project known as “Salar Futuro” – a process which will require further mandatory consultations with communities.

    Besides the participatory mechanism, the new agreement promises more money than ever before for salt flat communities.

    A stone arch welcomes visitors to the village of Peine, one of the closest settlements to lithium mining sites in the Atacama salt flat (Photo: REUTERS/Cristian Rudolffi)

    Depending on the global price of lithium and their proximity to the mining operations, Indigenous communities could collectively receive roughly $30 million annually in funding – about double what SQM currently disburses under existing contracts.

    When taking into account the company’s payments to local and regional authorities, contributions could reach $150 million annually, according to the government.

    To access these resources, each community will need to submit a pipeline of projects they would like funding for under a complex arrangement that includes five separate financial streams:

    • A general investment fund will distribute funding based on each village’s size and proximity to the mining sites
    • A development fund will support projects specifically in the five communities closest to the extraction sites
    • Contributions to farmers and livestock associations
    • Contributions to local governments
    • A groundbreaking “intergenerational fund” held in trust for the Lickanantay until 2060

    For many isolated communities in the Atacama desert, financial contributions from mining firms have funded essential public services, such as healthcare and facilities like football pitches and swimming pools.

    In the past, communities have used some of the benefits they received from mining to build their own environmental monitoring units, hiring teams of hydrogeologists and lawyers to scrutinise miners’ activities.

    Espíndola said the new model could pave the way for more ambitious development projects such as water treatment plants and community solar energy projects.

    A man in a white shirt and glasses stands in front of a stone wall
    Sergio Cubillos, president of the Peine community, was one of the Indigenous representatives in the negotiations with Codelco and SQM (Photo credit: Formando Rutas/ Daniela Carvajal)

    Competition for water

    The depletion of water resources is one of local people’s biggest environmental concerns.

    To extract lithium from the salt flats, miners pump lithium-rich brine accumulated over millions of years in underground reservoirs into gigantic pools, where the water is left to evaporate under the sun and leaves behind lithium carbonate.

    One study has shown that the practice is causing the salt flat to sink by up to two centimetres a year. SQM recently said its current operations consume approximately 11,500 to 12,500 litres of industrial freshwater for every metric ton of lithium produced.

    NovaAndino has committed to significantly reduce the company’s water use by returning at least 30% of the water it extracts from the brine and eliminating the use of all freshwater in its operations within five years of obtaining an environmental permit.

      Cristina Dorador, a microbiologist at the University of Antofagasta, told Climate Home News that reinjecting the water underground is untested at a large scale and could impact the chemical composition of the salt flats.

      Continuing to extract lithium from the flats until 2060 could be the “final blow” for this fragile ecosystem, she said.

      Asked to comment on such concerns, NovaAndino said any new technology will be “subject to the highest regulatory standards”, and pledged to ensure transparency through “an updated monitoring system with the participation of Indigenous communities”.

      High price for hard-won gains

      For the five communities living on the doorstep of the lithium pools, one of the biggest gains is being granted physical access to the mining sites to monitor the lithium extraction and its impact on the salt flats.

      That is a first and will strengthen communities’ ability to call out environmental harms, said Sergio Cubillos, the community president of Peine, the village closest to the evaporation ponds. It could also give them the means to seek remediation through the courts if necessary, Espíndola said.

      Gaining such rights represents long-overdue progress, Cubillos said, but it has come at a high price for the Lickanantay people.

      “Communities receiving money today is what has ultimately led to this division, because we haven’t been able to figure out what we want, how we want it, and how we envision our future as a people,” he said.

      Main image: A truck loads concentrated brine at SQM’s lithium mine at the Atacama salt flat in Chile (Photo: REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado)

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      Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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      Diplomats will hold a series of informal meetings this year in a bid to revive stalled talks over a global treaty to curb plastic pollution, before aiming to reconvene for the next round of official negotiations at the end of 2026 or early 2027.

      Hoping to find a long-awaited breakthrough in the deeply divided UN process, the chair of the talks, Chilean ambassador Julio Cordano, released a roadmap on Monday to inject momentum into the discussions after negotiations collapsed at a chaotic session in Geneva last August.

      Cordano wrote in a letter that countries would meet in Nairobi from June 30 to July 3 for informal discussions to review all the components of the negotiations, including thorny issues such as efforts to limit soaring plastic production.

        The gathering should result in the drafting of a new document laying the foundations of a future treaty text with options on elements with divergent views, but “no surprises” such as new ideas or compromise proposals. This plan aims to address the fact that countries left Geneva without a draft text to work on – something Cordano called a “significant limitation” in his letter.

        “Predictable pathway”

        The meeting in the Kenyan capital will follow a series of virtual consultations every four to six weeks, where heads of country delegations will exchange views on specific topics. A second in-person meeting aimed at finding solutions might take place in early October, depending on the availability of funding.

        Cordano said the roadmap should offer “a predictable pathway” in the lead-up to the next formal negotiating session, which is expected to take place over 10 days at the end of 2026 or early 2027. A host country has yet to be selected, but Climate Home News understands that Brazil, Azerbaijan or Kenya – the home of the UN Environment Programme – have been put forward as options.

        Countries have twice failed to agree on a global plastics treaty at what were meant to be final rounds of negotiations in December 2024 and August 2025.

        Divisions on plastic production

        One of the most divisive elements of the discussions remains what the pact should do about plastic production, which, according to the UN, is set to triple by 2060 without intervention.

        A majority, which includes most European, Latin American, African and Pacific island nations, wants to limit the manufacturing of plastic to “sustainable levels”. But large fossil fuel and petrochemical producers, led by Saudi Arabia, the United States, Russia and India, say the treaty should only focus on managing plastic waste.

        As nearly all plastic is made from planet-heating oil, gas and coal, the sector’s trajectory will have a significant impact on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

        Countries still far apart

        After an eight-month hiatus, informal discussions restarted in early March at an informal meeting of about 20 countries hosted by Japan.

        A participant told Climate Home News that, while the gathering had been helpful to test ideas, progress remained “challenging”, with national stances largely unchanged.

        The source added that countries would need to achieve a significant shift in positions in the coming months to make reconvening formal negotiations worthwhile.

        Deep divisions persist as plastics treaty talks restart at informal meeting

        Jacob Kean-Hammerson, global plastics policy lead at Greenpeace USA, said the new roadmap offers an opportunity for countries to “defend and protect the most critical provisions on the table”.

        He said that the document expected after the Nairobi meeting “must include and revisit proposals backed by a large number of countries, especially on plastic production, that have previously been disregarded”.

        “These measures are essential to addressing the crisis at its source and must be reinstated as a key part of the negotiations,” he added.

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        Roadmap launched to restart deadlocked UN plastics treaty talks

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        Iran War Shows That Doubling Down on Fossil Fuels Is ‘Delusional,’ UN Climate Chief Says

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        Price spikes from the war highlight the necessity of the renewable energy transition for stability and national security, the U.N. official says.

        The Iran war’s disruption to the global energy market should be a wake-up call for countries that continue to rely on fossil fuels, said United Nations climate chief Simon Stiell in a speech on Monday.

        Iran War Shows That Doubling Down on Fossil Fuels Is ‘Delusional,’ UN Climate Chief Says

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