Burning all the oil and gas from new discoveries and newly approved projects since 2021 would emit at least 14.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2), according to Carbon Brief analysis of Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data.
This would be equivalent to more than an entire year’s worth of China’s emissions.
It includes 8GtCO2 from new oil and gas reserves discovered in 2022-23 and another 6GtCO2 from projects that were approved for development over the same period.
These have all gone ahead since the International Energy Agency (IEA) concluded, in 2021, that “no new oil and gas fields” would be required if the world were to limit global warming to 1.5C .
Since then, world leaders gathering at the COP28 summit at the end of 2023 have also agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”.
Despite this, nations such as Guyana and Namibia are emerging as entirely new hotspots for oil and gas development. At the same time, major historic fossil-fuel producers, such as the US and Iran, are still going ahead with large new projects.
Additionally, oil majors such as TotalEnergies and Shell that have made public commitments to climate action, are among the biggest players investing in new oil and gas extraction around the world.
More oil, more CO2
In 2021, the IEA issued its first “net-zero roadmap”, setting out a pathway for the world to limit warming to 1.5C. The influential agency concluded that:
“Beyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil-and-gas fields approved for development in our pathway.”
This statement has become a rallying cry for campaigners and leaders pushing for a phase out of fossil fuels.
The IEA has since clarified that there would be no need for new oil and gas developments if the world gets on track for 1.5C. It has also slightly softened its language, by allowing for new oil and gas projects with a “short-lead time” within its 1.5C scenario.
Yet it has also warned of the risk of “overinvestment” in new developments, noting that current spending is “almost double” what would be needed under its 1.5C pathway.
In any case, the IEA’s message has been widely ignored by oil and gas companies, which have continued to search for new extraction opportunities.
In its new global oil and gas extraction tracker, GEM identifies 50 new sites discovered in 2022 and 2023, after the IEA issued its initial net-zero roadmap. The oil and gas reserves from these projects amount to 20.3m barrels of oil equivalent (Mboe).
The tracker also identified a further 45 projects that have reached “final investment decision” (FID) since the IEA’s roadmap, with an extra 16Mboe of reserves. FID is the point at which companies decide to move ahead with a project’s construction and development.
If all the oil and gas in the newly discovered reserves is burned in the coming years, an extra 8GtCO2 would be released into the atmosphere, according to Carbon Brief analysis. Adding the reserves discovered between 2022-23 brings this total to 14.1GtCO2.
This is equivalent to more than one-third of the CO2 emissions from global energy use in 2022, or all the emissions from burning oil that year, as shown in the chart below.
These findings are in line with mounting evidence that both company and government plans for fossil fuels are not aligned with their own climate goals.
According to the most recent UN Environment Programme “production gap” report, companies are planning for oil and gas production that is 82% and 29% higher, respectively, than would be needed in a 1.5C pathway.
The remaining “carbon budget” of emissions that can be released while retaining a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C is just 275GtCO2, according to the Global Carbon Budget consortium of scientists. Burning all of the contents of the new oil and gas schemes identified by GEM would use up 5% of this remaining budget.
Moreover, the GEM report points out that new projects take, on average, 11 years to start producing significant amounts of oil and gas. This means that most will not enter production until the 2030s.
By this point, according to the IEA, fossil-fuel demand would have fallen by “more than 25%” if the world gets on to a 1.5C-compliant pathway.
GEM also notes that its analysis likely underestimates the scale of new fossil fuel developments. It excludes smaller sites and those where the size has not been publicly announced, such as new gas fields discovered in Saudi Arabia in 2022.
The IEA updated its net-zero scenario in 2023 to reflect the continued expansion of fossil-fuel projects since its previous report. It stated that:
“No new long lead time conventional oil and gas projects need to be approved for development.”
It added that falling demand for fossil fuels “may also mean that a number of high cost projects come to an end before they reach the end of their technical lifetimes”, again if the world gets onto a 1.5C pathway.
To reflect the IEA’s new language around avoiding “long lead time” and “conventional” projects, GEM excludes expansions of existing projects and “unconventional” sites from its analysis. The report notes that including them would roughly quadruple the size of the reserves that reached a FID in 2022-23.
Oil majors
Many oil companies have made it clear that they do not intend to wind down their fossil-fuel operations in the near future.
This is true even for those that have made commitments to climate action, such as Shell and TotalEnergies. (Some oil majors have also watered down their pledges in recent months.)
As the chart below shows, many of the companies with the largest share of new oil and gas schemes have also announced net-zero targets.
The top rankings are dominated by publicly traded oil majors, such as ExxonMobil, and national companies, such as the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) – which is led by COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, is missing from the GEM tracker, likely due to the lack of data from Saudi Arabia.
The emissions that could result from new gas fields run by the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company alone amount to 1,700MtCO2, according to Carbon Brief analysis. This is higher than the annual carbon footprint of Brazil.
Meanwhile, oil and gas in new projects being developed by TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil could generate roughly 1,000MtCO2 – equivalent to Japan’s annual total – for each company.
At the recent CERAWeek industry conference, many oil and gas industry leaders argued against a transition to cleaner forms of energy. For example, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser told attendees: “We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas.”
As companies continue searching for more oil and gas, executives have consistently emphasised that demand for fossil fuels, rather than production, is the problem.
Most recently, in an interview with Fortune, ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods placed the blame on the public, who he said “aren’t willing to spend the money” on low-carbon alternatives.
New country ‘hotspots’
New nations, mainly in the global south, are opening up as “global hotspots” for oil and gas projects, according to GEM.
Notably, Guyana is set to have the highest oil production growth through to 2035. Over the past two years, it has already been the site of more new oil and gas discoveries than any other country. Namibia has also opened up as a major new frontier in fossil-fuel extraction.
The chart below shows how nations that have recently been targeted for oil and gas exploration, now make up a large portion of new discoveries and developments.
The expansion of oil and gas production in the global south is a highly politicised topic.
Many African leaders, in particular, argue that their countries are entitled to exploit their natural resources in order to bring benefits to their people, as global-north countries have done. At COP28, African Group chair Collins Nzovu stated that oil and gas were “crucial for Africa’s development”.
(It is worth noting that, according to GEM’s analysis, companies based in the global north such as ExxonMobil, Hess Corporation and TotalEnergies own most of the reserves in the new global-south projects.)
Meanwhile, wealthy oil producers such as the US, Norway and the UAE justify their continued fossil-fuel extraction by saying their production emissions are relatively low. Others, such as the UK, argue that they need to exploit domestic reserves to preserve their energy security.
Even in a 1.5C scenario, the IEA still includes a significantly reduced amount of oil and gas use in 2050. Most of it goes towards making petrochemicals and producing hydrogen fuel.
However, in last year’s report on the position of the oil and gas industry in the net-zero transition, the agency also emphasises that this does not mean everyone can continue producing.
“Many producers say they will be the ones to keep producing throughout transitions and
beyond. They cannot all be right,” it concludes.
The post Analysis: New oil and gas projects since 2021 could emit 14bn tonnes of CO2 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: New oil and gas projects since 2021 could emit 14bn tonnes of CO2
Bolivia’s election of centre-right President-elect Rodrigo Paz Pereira could see the country open its vast lithium resources to foreign investors to bolster its faltering economy – a move that could benefit the US after years of hostility toward Washington, analysts say.
Paz, a senator and the son of a former president, won the country’s election earlier this month, ending two decades of left-wing rule, which constrained foreign investment in the South American nation’s mineral wealth.
The change in government may be welcomed by investors in the US, which is seeking to secure access to minerals that are critical for clean technology and military equipment, to counter China’s supply chain dominance, and has previously raised concerns over Chinese investments in the region’s lithium industry.
Lithium is a key material to manufacture rechargeable batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage.
Bolivia makes up less than 1% of global lithium production despite possessing some of the world’s largest reserves, with an estimated 23 million tonnes, or 20% of the global total.
Paz has pledged to seek overseas partnerships to tap these reserves. But he will have to balance engaging the US with maintaining investment from China and Russia initiated by his predecessors.
“Exactly what he does on this issue will determine his relationship with China and Russia,” said Farit Rojas, a professor at the Higher University of San Andrés in La Paz.
At the same time, the political reset could provide Bolivia with a critical opportunity to set clearer and stricter environmental and social standards for developing its burgeoning lithium sector, analysts told Climate Home News.
Bolivia’s lithium dream
Paz’s election comes at a pivotal moment for the country. It is mired in an economic crisis spurred by runaway inflation caused by a foreign currency shortage, leaving people waiting in long lines for fuel and essentials like cooking oil.
Converting lithium reserves into a profitable export industry would bring much needed dollars into the country.
But doing so would require amending Bolivia’s constitution to allow private firms to extract the mineral. That privilege was restricted to Bolivia’s state-owned companies under the 20-year rule of the Movement for Socialism (MAS), the party formerly led by ex-President Evo Morales.
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Constitutional restrictions and past rejection of foreign investment mean Bolivia’s lithium resources remain largely untapped compared to neighbouring Argentina and Chile, whose deposits are of higher quality.
A significant share of Bolivia’s deposits also lie beneath the Salar de Uyuni salt flats, a major tourist attraction.
Paz, whose party does not have a legislative majority, has yet to say whether and how he will amend Bolivia’s constitution. But he has pledged not to “sell out” Salar de Uyuni.
US, China and Russia: a balancing act
His first months in office will be watched closely by the Trump administration. Following Paz’s election victory, the US Department of State pledged to work with him on “shared goals of regional and global security, economic prosperity, and growth that will benefit our nations”.
For the US, this could be an opportunity to break China and Russia’s grip on Bolivia’s lithium reserves, said Pablo Hamilton, a Chilean mining lawyer connecting foreign investors with energy opportunities in Bolivia.
In 2024, Bolivia’s state-owned Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos lithium company signed contracts worth a combined $2 billion with Chinese and Russian firms to extract lithium beneath the Salar de Uyuni salt flats. The year prior, it signed a $1.4 billion deal with Chinese battery manufacturing giant CATL to develop its lithium resources.
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But those contracts – which have yet to be approved by Bolivia’s legislature – have been sharply criticised by scientists, Indigenous peoples and local communities because of a lack of transparency over the consultation process, inconsistencies within the contracts and environmental risks. Paz has pledged to review the contracts.
Cancelling the contracts could cause investors to worry about policy volatility, Hamilton told Climate Home News. But the administration could justify doing so if it can prove allegations of corruption that have swirled around the deals. It could also provide an opportunity to establish stricter mining standards that provide certainty to potential investors.
Investors “don’t know what to expect”
“The rules are not clear enough. It’s very concerning that investors don’t know what to expect,” Hamilton said. “This is a great opportunity to [mandate] a free, prior and informed consultation process and environmental impact assessments – really professional ones, not just to tick the box.”
To attract foreign investment, Paz will likely seek to build public-private partnerships, which will require greater engagement from local actors than in the past, Hamilton said.
In the area surrounding Salar de Uyuni, Indigenous groups have lost trust in the government, citing the shadowy allocation of mining contracts and saying their communities have not benefited from mining.
They also worry that additional extraction would deplete the limited freshwater resources they rely on for farming, said Gonzalo Mondaca of environmental organisation Cedib, which works with communities living in the lithium-rich region.
Efforts to green lithium extraction face scrutiny over water use
The proposed Chinese and Russian extraction plans would use direct lithium extraction (DLE), a group of technologies that proponents say can help extract more lithium with fewer environmental impacts but which still uses large amounts of water.
But existing environmental assessments are not sufficient to understand the impact of the technique on the salt flat’s ecosystem, said Mondaca.
On the campaign trail, Paz also said he would seek to export the magnesium byproducts of lithium extraction to the US and China.
However, that plan requires a high level of technological development and Bolivia currently lacks the necessary infrastructure, said Mondaca.
Even if the new president manages to clear constitutional hurdles to liberalise the country’s lithium sector, “there is still a long way to go,” he added.
The post Bolivia’s shift to the right renews ambition to mine vast lithium reserves appeared first on Climate Home News.
Bolivia’s shift to the right renews ambition to mine vast lithium reserves
The Amazon isn’t just the world’s greatest rainforest. She has been home to her original people for tens of thousands of years, who have persisted through centuries of colonial incursions to protect their home. At each moment of each day, the Amazon breathes, dances, and sings with an endless variety of plants and animals, many of those we humans have yet to understand. The Amazon is life-giving, irreplaceable and yet profoundly vulnerable.
Here are 10 fascinating facts to inspire you to take action for the Amazon:
1- The Amazon is the largest rainforest in the world
Spanning over nine countries in South America, the Amazon is the largest tropical forest on the planet, covering 6.7 million square kilometres. To put it in perspective, she is twice the size of India—the largest country in South Asia. The biggest part, around 60%, is in Brazil. After the Amazon, the Congo Basin and Papua host the world’s largest remaining rainforests.
2- The Amazon is one of the most biodiverse ecosystems on Earth
The Amazon is home to approximately 10% of all known species of fauna and flora worldwide. From the beautiful hyacinth macaws to fearless jaguars and the amazing pink dolphins, this vibrant ecosystem is teeming with life. In some areas, a single hectare can contain more than 300 tree species, approximately two-thirds of the native tree species in Europe (454), making the Amazon one of the most botanically rich regions on Earth.
Studies show that the Amazon Basin harbours at least 2,716 species of fish, 427 amphibians, 371 reptiles, 1,300 birds, and 425 mammals. However, the vast majority of its biodiversity lies in her invertebrates, particularly insects, with over 2.5 million species currently known
3- There are approximately 3 million Indigenous People living in the Amazon
The Amazon is home to a diverse group of Indigenous Peoples. Over 390 Indigenous Peoples live in the region, along with approximately 137 isolated groups, who have chosen to remain uncontacted.
In Brazil, about 51.2% of the country’s Indigenous population resides in the Amazon. But the largest tropical forest in the world is also home to traditional communities that have lived in harmony with the forest for generations, such as Rubber Tappers, Ribeirinhos—who inhabit the Amazon’s riverbanks—and Quilombolas, Afro-Brazilian communities descended from enslaved people..
4- The Amazon is home to over 40 million people
The Amazon is not just a vast rainforest rich in biodiversity and home to Indigenous People—it is also home to several cities. In Brazil, These include Manaus , an industrial hub with a population of 2.2 million, and Belém , which will host the United Nations Climate Conference (COP30) in November 2025.
These people’s lives are intrinsically connected to the forest. They depend on her for their food, fresh water, and to regulate the local climate. Smoke from the fires in the Amazon directly impacts the people living in the region, darkening the skies and causing respiratory problems to the population, especially children and elders.
5- The Amazon is vital for the global climate
The Amazon is estimated to store about 123 billion tons of carbon, both above and below ground, making her one of Earth’s most crucial “carbon reserves”, vital in the fight against the climate crisis. However, studies show that fire- and deforestation-affected areas of the Amazon are now releasing more CO₂ into the atmosphere than they absorb. This poses a major threat to the global climate. Protecting the Amazon means protecting the future of everyone.
6- Fires in the Amazon are not natural
Unlike bushfires in Australia and other parts of the world, fires in the Amazon are not natural. In the Amazon biome, fire is used in the deforestation process to clear the land for agriculture and pasture. The use of fire in the Amazon is often illegal, and so is deforestation. This practice has a major impact on the local biodiversity, the health of the populations living in the region, and to the global climate, as the fires release vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.
© Victor Moriyama / Amazônia em Chamas
7- Cattle ranching is the leading cause of deforestation in the Amazon
The expansion of agribusiness in the Amazon is putting more and more pressure on the forest. According to a study, 90% of the deforested areas in the Brazilian Amazon are turned into pasture to produce meat and dairy. This means the food we eat may be linked to deforestation in the Amazon. We must urge our governments to stop buying from forest destroyers and ensure supply chains are free from deforestation, and demand stronger protections for the Amazon.
8- Illegal gold mining is a major threat to Indigenous Peoples
Illegal gold mining in Indigenous Lands in Brazil surged by 265% in just five years, between 2018 and 2022. The activity poses a severe threat to the health and the lives of Indigenous People, destroying rivers, contaminating communities with mercury and bringing violence and death to their territories.
But illegal gold mining doesn’t impact just the forest and Indigenous People. A recent study showed that mercury-contaminated fish are being sold in markets in major Amazonian cities, putting the health of millions at risk.
9- The Amazon is close to a point of no return
About 17% of the Amazon has already been deforested, and scientists warn we are getting dangerously close to a ‘point of no return’.
According to a study, if we lose between 20% and 25% of the Amazon, the forest might lose its ability to generate its own moisture, leading to reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, and a self-reinforcing cycle of drying and degradation.
As a result, vast areas of the forest could turn into a drier, savanna-like ecosystem, unable to sustain her rich biodiversity. This could have catastrophic consequences for the global climate, local communities, and the planet’s ecological balance.
10- The most important Climate Conference in the world is happening in the Amazon this year
COP30, the United Nations Climate Conference, will take place in Belém, the second largest city in the Amazon region, in November 2025. During the conference, representatives from countries all over the world will meet to discuss measures to protect the climate. Across the globe, we are already witnessing and feeling the impacts of the climate crisis. This is our chance to demand our political leaders move beyond words to urgent action. They must stop granting permission and public funds to Earth-destroying industries. Instead, our leaders must respect, pursue, and support real solutions that already exist—solutions that put the forest and her people at the heart of the response. Indigenous guardians of the forest hold true authority, and they must be respected and heard. The moment is now.
We are the turning point! Join the movement and demand respect for the Amazon.
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