Nitrogen fertilisers, manure and other agricultural sources drove almost three-quarters of human-caused nitrous oxide emissions in recent years.
That is according to the Global Carbon Project’s second “global nitrogen budget” – an assessment of the origins and climate impacts of the world’s nitrous oxide emissions.
The research, published in Earth System Science Data, finds that nitrous oxide emissions from human activities rose by 40% over the past four decades, partly driven by growing global demand for meat and dairy.
Nitrous oxide emissions over the past decade exceeded even the highest projected levels in emissions pathways, the research finds.
Continuing to emit the greenhouse gas at current rates would “really affect” the world’s ability to achieve the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below” 2C, the lead author of the study tells Carbon Brief.
One expert, who was not involved in the research, says the findings show “all too clearly” that nitrous oxide emissions “are still going rapidly in the wrong direction”.
Potent greenhouse gas
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lasting greenhouse gas that is around 270 times more potent than CO2. It is the third-largest contributor to climate change, after CO2 and methane.
Various natural sources generate nitrous oxide, including tiny organisms in the world’s oceans and soils. These natural emitters accounted for 65% of all nitrous oxide emissions over 2010-19.
Human activities caused the remaining 35% of emissions, particularly nitrogen fertiliser use and manure management in agriculture. The burning of fossil fuels and biomass also produce nitrous oxide, but to a lesser extent.
The new study assesses both natural and human-caused sources of nitrous oxide to see how they have changed over time and how they are contributing to climate change.
It divides the sources and sinks into 21 categories, such as direct emissions from nitrogen use in agriculture and the exchange of CO2 between the land and atmosphere .
The researchers use a range of satellite data, models, algorithms and inventories to assess emissions over time.
The study finds that human-caused nitrous oxide emissions “significantly increased” from 1980 to 2020, growing by 40% during this time period. This rise was spurred on, in part, by growing demand for meat and dairy.
This is a jump of 10% in these human-caused emissions from the last nitrous oxide assessment, which covered data over 1980-2016.
However, the new study includes more categories than the previous global assessment, including emissions from microbe activity in the shallow waters over continental shelves. The researchers in the study say this explains some of the higher estimates in the new report.
Concentrations of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere have also risen faster in the past three years than any other time since 1980.
Prof Hanqin Tian is the lead author of the study and an environmental sciences professor at Boston College. He tells Carbon Brief that nitrous oxide emissions continuing at current rates would “really affect the Paris climate agreement” goals.
Natural nitrous oxide emissions, on the other hand, were “relatively stable” over the period covered by the research. Tian explains:
“In terms of the total number, natural emissions are very high. But over long time periods, they stay stable. So natural emissions do not really contribute to climate change from pre-industrial times to now.”
Human-caused emissions have increased significantly. The below infographic outlines the changes in different nitrous oxide emissions sources from 2010 to 2019.
Assessments of different nitrous oxide sources and sinks from 2010-19. Different coloured arrows represent nitrous oxide fluxes in teragrams of nitrogen per year (TgN/yr): direct emissions from nitrogen used in agriculture (red), emissions from other direct human sources (orange), indirect emissions from human-caused nitrogen use (maroon), perturbations due to changes in climate, CO2 or land cover (brown), and emissions from natural sources (green). Source: Tian et al. (2024).
Prof Dave Reay, the chair in carbon management and education at the University of Edinburgh, who was not involved in the study, says that the research is “really significant” for both scientists and policymakers. He tells Carbon Brief:
“Nitrous oxide’s importance can sometimes be obscured by the larger climate forcing effects of CO2 and methane, yet every missed opportunity to cut nitrous oxide emissions drags the world still further away from achieving the Paris climate goals.”
The researchers highlight that human-caused nitrous oxide emissions need to be cut by at least one-fifth by 2050 to help limit long-term warming to 2C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Reay says this study shows “all too clearly” that these emissions are “still going rapidly in the wrong direction”.
Agricultural emissions
Agriculture was the “major driver” of increased human-caused nitrous oxide emissions over the past four decades, the study says. In total, the researchers find that the sector was responsible for 74% of these emissions over 2010-19.
While agricultural emissions increased over time, other human-caused nitrous oxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry decreased slightly between 1980 and 2020.
Cutting nitrogen use in agriculture is a “quite complex issue related to food production, food security” and a range of other issues, Tian says.
Requirements to cut nitrous oxide emissions, particularly from livestock, have been a major political issue in the Netherlands and other countries. Nitrous oxide emissions are “expected to continue rising” over the next few decades due to the growing demand for food, the study says.
A tractor spraying nitrogen fertiliser on winter wheat. Credit: Tim Scrivener / Alamy Stock Photo
Reay says that reducing nitrogen use in agriculture “can yield benefits not just for climate change mitigation, but for food production, air and water quality and biodiversity, too”. He adds:
“The array of strategies to address these losses – primarily through improving so-called nitrogen use efficiency across our food systems – are already showing positive results in some areas of Europe and south-east Asia.”
An excess of nitrogen used on the land can wash into lakes, rivers and oceans. This run-off causes damage to plants, animals and humans and spurs on toxic algae. Nitrous oxide also contributes to depletion of the ozone layer.
Top-emitting countries
The study also examines emissions in 18 different regions, finding that they grew in some countries and decreased in others over the past four decades.
China, India, the US, Brazil and Russia were the five biggest nitrous oxide emitters in 2020, the study findings show.
Human-caused emissions increased by 157% in India, 135% in China and 131% in Brazil over 1980-2020.
China alone made up 40% of the overall increase in global human-caused nitrous oxide emissions between 1980 and 2020.
Although the country remains the biggest emitter, China’s nitrous oxide emissions have decreased in recent years as a result of efforts to use nitrogen fertilisers more efficiently, Tian says.
Rice terraces in Yunnan province in China. Credit: Fabio Nodari / Alamy Stock Photo
Nitrous oxide emissions have reduced in several parts of the world since 1980: Europe, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Korea.
Europe – the biggest nitrous oxide emitter in 1980 – has seen the most significant drop in the four decades since. Emissions fell by one-third (31%) during this time, largely due to fossil fuel and industry emissions cuts in the 1990s.
Agriculture-related nitrous oxide emissions also decreased in Europe during this time, but the drop has levelled off since the 2000s, the study notes.
Exceeding future projections
The scientists also explore how current nitrous oxide emissions compare with those from scenarios of future projections of climate change.
The charts below show how global nitrous oxide concentrations in the atmosphere (black line) compare with projections under the “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs, left) and the “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs, right).
The charts highlight that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas over the past decade have exceeded even the projections under the very-high-emissions trajectory, RCP8.5 (red dashed line).
Two different pathways focusing on concentrations of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere, measured in parts per billion (ppb). Chart A (left) shows the measured levels of nitrous oxide (black line) compared to the four RCPs used in the IPCC fifth assessment report. Chart B shows the seven SSPs used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) models used in the IPCC sixth assessment report. Source: Tian et al. (2024).
The researchers outline some “major uncertainties” with their findings and the scientific understanding of where nitrous oxide comes from.
These include the understanding of emissions from soils in tropical ecosystems in the Amazon Basin, the Congo Basin and south-east Asia, alongside areas using high levels of fertilisers, such as the US “corn belt”.
The study also mentions uncertainties around estimates for the impact of deforestation on nitrous oxide emissions.
The researchers propose setting up a global network to better monitor and model nitrous oxide emissions. Reay says that this is a “very timely suggestion”, adding:
“With all nations needing to submit their updated national plans for climate action in the run up to COP30 in Brazil next year, better measurement of nitrous oxide emissions holds the promise of better reporting and, crucially, better efforts to cut them.”
After the United States announced last week it would withdraw from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), effectively slashing more than a fifth of its core budget, the organisation’s head said it could “manage” the US exit, as top officials argued the energy transition is “unstoppable”.
Speaking to reporters at IRENA’s 16th Assembly in Abu Dhabi, Director-General Francesco La Camera said the US had yet to formally notify the agency it would be leaving. IRENA’s statute says withdrawal of a member country takes effect at the end of the year in which it is notified.
Until that point, they remain a member with all its rights, including the right to vote, but also “the duty to pay”, La Camera added.
The decision will make the US the only country to leave the UNFCCC, with the UN climate chief calling it a “colossal own goal” that will harm the US economy
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On Sunday, IRENA’s member countries – around 170 in total – adopted a budget for the coming two years, which shows the US is expected to contribute 22% of IRENA’s core funding, with its share amounting to nearly $5.7 million for 2026.
La Camera said IRENA is already talking to governments and the private sector to fill the potential financial hole if the US does not deliver on its financial obligations, as has been the case in previous years with the UN climate secretariat and the Green Climate Fund.
“We know that some of these usual donors are considering to put something in our budget – we are also trying to get some money from the companies that are part of our initiatives… and we will see other ways that we can pursue,” he added. “I know that we can manage one way or another.”
During country statements made on Sunday afternoon, which were closed to the media, there had been expectations that China might step up to close the gap, but that did not happen.
The United Arab Emirates, Germany and other European nations are substantial government donors to IRENA, although the agency’s core budget has barely risen since 2018, documents show. That has limited its ability to expand its activities even as demand rises across developing countries and small island states for greater technical and policy support to boost renewables.
La Camera noted that, following the US decision to pull out under Donald Trump, IRENA’s council may need to propose amendments to its approved budget for 2026-2027 ahead of its next meeting in May.
Melford Nicholas, minister of information technologies, utilities and energy for Antigua and Barbuda, who is also a newly elected vice president of IRENA, told Climate Home News the US move would “not be an insignificant development” but Europeans had indicated they could help make up the shortfall.
Clean energy for “opportunity and necessity”
At the opening session of the two-day assembly, La Camera and other top officials affirmed the importance of renewable energy as the best choice for energy and economic security at a time of rising geopolitical tensions driven by fossil fuel interests.
Selwin Hart,special adviser to the UN Secretary-General on Climate Action and Just Transition, said the world is clearly changing its energy system to clean sources “not out of idealism, but out of opportunity and necessity”.
He noted that three out of four people live in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels, exposing them to geopolitical shocks, volatile prices and balance of payment pressures.
Examples of this include the rise in gas prices in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2024 led to sanctions.
“The energy transition is taking place… not only based on climate considerations, but based on costs, based on competitiveness and energy security and energy independence,” Hart added. “These are the driving forces now – hardcore economic, hardcore national security [and] strategic reasons.”
In a video message, Annalena Baerbock, president of the UN General Assembly and former foreign minister of Germany, said “we are living in heavy, challenging times” – but despite setbacks and political headwinds, “the march to a renewable energy future has proven unstoppable”.
She added that global renewable capacity has now reached more than 4,400 gigawatts, almost 30 times that of 2015 when the Paris climate agreement was adopted, while a record $2.4 trillion was invested in the energy transition in 2024. “There is no way back,” she added.
However, she and Hart both noted that more needs to be done to support African countries to unlock finance for clean energy, as it lags far behind other regions and receives only around 2% of investment in the sector.
Challenges for small island states
The substantial needs of small island developing states (SIDS) are also front and centre at the IRENA Assembly, where ministers have discussed the challenges of shifting away from costly diesel and other polluting fuels while being exposed to rising climate shocks such as destructive cyclones.
Antigua and Barbuda’s minister Nicholas pointed to the difficulty of gaining insurance for renewable energy facilities as a key barrier in an era when storms can cause huge damage.
This happened in Barbuda in 2017 when Hurricane Irma wiped out a solar plant that was not insured. Governments including the United Arab Emirates and New Zealand helped to rebuild it.
Antigua and Barbuda’s Minister Melford Nicholas speaks at the IRENA 16th Assembly in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on January 11, 2026 (Photo: IRENA)
Antigua and Barbuda’s Minister Melford Nicholas speaks at the IRENA 16th Assembly in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on January 11, 2026 (Photo: IRENA)
Nicholas said SIDS are still in need of concessional finance, which could “become increasingly challenging for us” in the current international environment.
“It’s an issue, because that retards the speed at which we’re able to get to renewable energy transition,” he added, noting his country is likely to reach an energy mix of around 60% renewables by 2030 rather than the 100% it had aimed for.
Despite the obstacles, ministers from Caribbean countries like St Kitts and Nevis and Dominica showcased examples of planned geothermal plants that will enable them to phase down fossil fuels dramatically.
IRENA’s La Camera said he was optimistic the world would get very close to realising a global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by the end of this decade, but was still lagging behind on a twin target of doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
To help catalyse a global transition away from fossil fuels, he added that IRENA would work with COP host nations on a roadmap to that end, which they are due to present at the COP31 UN climate summit in Turkey in November, as well as a potential target for electrification consistent with that plan.
Jobs in renewable energy expanded only slightly in 2024 to reach 16.6 million worldwide, new figures show, suggesting that the industry’s ability to create employment is slowing as it matures.
According to an annual report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Labour Organization (ILO), the number of renewables jobs rose by just 2.3% between 2023 and 2024. This was partly due to Chinese solar manufacturers already producing more components than they could sell, and laying off workers to cut costs.
Other factors included a shift from rooftop solar installations to utility-scale systems in major markets like India and Germany, as well as increasing automation in the sector – a trend that is expected to accelerate with the use of robots, drones and artificial intelligence.
Employment in the sector has risen steadily from 7.3 million in 2012, when the data series began, along with the increase in solar, wind and geothermal energy, hydropower and biofuels around the world. But far fewer new jobs were created in 2024 – 400,000 – compared with 2023, which saw a jump of 2.5 million.
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In a foreword to the report released on Sunday, IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera and ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo wrote that the slowdown in the rate of job creation points to “the emergence of a new phase in the energy transition”.
“Growing automation and economies of scale mean that comparatively less human labour is required for each new unit of capacity – although impacts vary across countries, technologies and segments of the renewable energy value chain,” they said.
IRENA currently projects that, with the right policies in place, the renewable energy workforce could expand to 30 million jobs by 2030. But the latest figures – which do not reflect the impact of Donald Trump’s squashing of US renewables incentives in 2025 – indicate reaching that level could be a stretch.
Michael Renner, IRENA’s head of socioeconomics and policy, told Climate Home News on the sidelines of the agency’s assembly in Abu Dhabi that, in the past 10-20 years, the renewable energy sector has been far more labour-intensive than the fossil fuel industry – which has largely been automated – but the difference is starting to narrow.
“I think renewables are still looking favourable [for job creation], and I don’t think that advantage will be lost – but I think it will be less massive, less dramatic,” he added.
Notes:
a) Includes liquid biofuels, solid biomass and biogas.
b) Direct jobs only.
c) “Others” includes geothermal energy, concentrated solar power, heat pumps (ground based), municipal and industrial waste,
and ocean energy.
Source: IRENA / Renewable Energy and Jobs
Annual Review 2025
Notes:
a) Includes liquid biofuels, solid biomass and biogas.
b) Direct jobs only.
c) “Others” includes geothermal energy, concentrated solar power, heat pumps (ground based), municipal and industrial waste,
and ocean energy.
Source: IRENA / Renewable Energy and Jobs
Annual Review 2025
Geographical imbalances
The world needs to add a huge amount of solar, wind, hydro and geothermalcapacity to meet a global goal of tripling renewable power capacity to reach 11.2 terawatts (TW) by the end of the decade. That will require installing an average of about 1.1 TW each year from 2025 to 2030, which is about double the power added in 2024, IRENA says.
In a statement on the jobs report, La Camera noted that renewable energy deployment is “booming, but the human side of the story is as important as the technological side”.
He pointed to geographical imbalances in the deployment of clean energy and related job creation. Africa has particularly struggled to attract foreign investment in building out renewables, with much of the growth currently concentrated in Asia.
“Countries that are lagging behind in the energy transition must be supported by the international community,” La Camera said. “This is essential not only to meet the goal of tripling renewable power capacity by 2030, but also to ensure that socioeconomic benefits become lived realities for all, helping to shore up popular support for the transition.”
Some countries like Nigeria are trying to boost their solar equipment manufacturing supply chains, with the government saying it plans to ban solar panel imports, and two large assembly plants announced to support public electrification programmes.
China leads on jobs but solar stumbles
In 2024, China was home to nearly half – 44% – of the world’s renewable energy jobs with an estimated 7.3 million. But in that year, employment in its solar photovoltaics (PV) sector actually contracted slightly, as five leading manufacturers cut their workforce.
This was in response to efforts by the Chinese government to curb what it has dubbed “disorderly” competition by reducing excess capacity across the solar PV supply chain, in a bid to boost prices and product quality.
Renewables jobs stayed flat in the European Union in 2024, meanwhile, at 1.8 million jobs, and India and the US saw small rises, accounting for 1.3 million and 1.1 million respectively. Brazil was also a big employer, with 1.4 million jobs, partly thanks to its biofuels industry based on soy and sugarcane.
On the impact of Trump’s efforts to roll back incentives and subsidies for green energy in the US, Renner said it will likely mean fewer new renewable power installations, with the report documenting examples of solar and wind projects that were cancelled or halted in 2025.
He also noted the dampening effects of US tariff hikes on the production of solar panels in Southeast Asia, which has led to job losses in some countries including Thailand, while others such as India have been able to increase their exports to the US thanks to relatively lower taxes on their exports.
Limited opportunities for women and people with disabilities
The report also highlights a lack of progress on increasing women workers in the renewables industry. While higher than in fossil fuels, it has plateaued at about one job in three.
Those jobs are concentrated in administrative roles, which account for 45% of female employment in renewable energy, as well as in technical positions unrelated to science, technology or engineering, such as legal work.
The report calls for greater efforts by companies, education and skills training bodies to open up more opportunities for women in clean energy, as well as for people with disabilities who face high barriers to participating in labour markets across the board, with only three in 10 being employed worldwide.
There are some positive cases where proactive policies have made a difference, such as in India’s electric vehicle industry, which has a relatively high level of women at the management level.
In Brazil, meanwhile, national legislation requires companies with more than 100 employees to reserve 2-5% of jobs for people with disabilities, including those in renewable energy.
And in Spain, energy utility Endesa and municipalities trained over 300 people with intellectual and psycho-social disabilities in tasks like vegetation management and composting at solar energy sites, with nearly 40% securing jobs after six months.
ILO’s Houngbo called for greater efforts on disability inclusion in the clean energy transition, not just as a matter of justice but also to advance resilient labour markets and sustainable development.
“This requires accessible training systems, inclusive hiring practices, and workplaces that accommodate, welcome and respond to diverse needs and respect every worker’s rights,” he added.
Climate Home News received support from IRENA to travel to Abu Dhabi to covers its 16th Assembly.
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