Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
China’s new climate pledge
GUTERRES DEMANDS: UN secretary general António Guterres hosted a special climate action summit in New York on Wednesday, the Associated Press reported, alongside the closing day of the UN general assembly. It added that at the “marathon session”, where 121 world leaders were scheduled to speak, Guterres said: “The science demands action. The law commands it. The economics compel it. And people are calling for it.”
CHINA CUTS: First billing went to President Xi Jinping, who unexpectedly appeared via video to announce a target of cutting emissions – from all greenhouse gases and across China’s entire economy – to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, according to Bloomberg. This is a significant moment for global climate efforts, noted BBC News, as it is the first time that China has pledged to reduce its emissions in absolute terms.
CAUTIOUS RESPONSE: However, the pledge fell short of the “at least 30%” cut observers had said was needed, BBC News added. Carbon Brief has published a detailed Q&A on China’s new climate pledge and will host a free webinar on the topic. Sign up for free.
PLEDGE CONFUSION: The Guardian said “120 countries and the EU announced new goals” at the summit. However, Carbon Brief analysis of the speeches and official submissions found that only 11 countries offered new targets. Following the summit, countries representing half of global emissions have now announced or submitted their 2035 climate pledges, according to analysis just published by Carbon Brief.
Trump’s new climate sledge
‘CLIMATE CON’: The day before the Guterres summit, Donald Trump had used a nearly hour-long speech to the UN general assembly to deliver what the Bloomberg Green newsletter called a “blizzard” of “climate misinformation”. He attracted blanket coverage – and multiple factchecks – for false claims including that climate change was the “greatest con job ever” and that warming predictions were “wrong”.
FACTCHECK: Contrary to Trump’s claims, human-induced warming is an “established fact”, according to the IPCC, as is an increase in the strength and frequency of extreme weather events. Regarding climate models, Carbon Brief climate science contributor Dr Zeke Hausfather noted on Bluesky that projections of warming have been “pretty spot on”.
Around the world
- RENEWABLE RECORD: Global investment in renewable energy grew 10% year-on-year to a record $386bn in the first half of 2025, the Guardian said.
- CARBON CLUB: COP30 host Brazil is “trying to build a coalition of countries, including the EU and China, to unify carbon markets”, Bloomberg reported.
- FOSSILS OUT?: Colombia will host the first-ever international conference on phasing out fossil fuels in 2026, according to Climate Home News. Meanwhile, E&E News covered the latest UN “production gap” report saying, despite a COP28 pledge to transition away from fossil fuels, “many are planning for even more production”.
- SUPER TYPHOON: Ragasa, a category 5 “super typhoon” and the world’s most powerful tropical cyclone this year, killed 17 people in Taiwan, BBC News said. The storm, which was “intensified” by climate change according to the Hong Kong Free Press, caused nearly two million residents to be evacuated in China, added Xinhua,
- DEFORESTATION DELAY: The EU has delayed the start of its anti-deforestation law “by another year”, Reuters said, blaming “IT system concerns”.
- AIRPORT APPROVAL: The UK government approved a second runway at London’s Gatwick airport, said BBC News. The Sunday Times reported that it was also “poised to soften” its ban on new drilling in the North Sea.
62,700
The number of deaths in Europe linked to heat-related causes in 2024, the continent’s hottest year on record, according to new research covered by Reuters.
Latest climate research
- Extreme and “unprecedented” global water-scarcity events – or “day-zero droughts” – could happen in the 2020s and 2030s | Nature Communications
- The drying of the Ganga river, of great economic and cultural importance to millions of people in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, is “unprecedented in the last 1,300 years” | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- The likelihood of “severe bushfires danger” in Australia driven by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has increased by 16-32% due to climate change | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
China’s new climate pledge, outlined by President Xi Jinping, includes a target to reduce “economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions” to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035. But, as Carbon Brief explained in a detailed Q&A, this falls short of what would have been needed to contribute to limiting warming to 1.5C, according to experts.
Spotlight
Can COP30 respond to the 1.5C challenge?
With hopes fading of keeping global warming below 1.5C, despite new pledges at a UN summit in New York, this spotlight looks at the road to COP30 in Brazil and how the climate talks might respond.
After 2024 marked the hottest year on record and the first above 1.5C, 2025 was supposed to offer a chance to “course correct” through new, more ambitious national climate plans.
Instead, many countries have missed repeated deadlines for updated “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, setting out their plans to 2035.
Despite some new pledges in New York this week – including from China – collective efforts still “fall short” of limiting warming to the Paris goals of “well-below” 2C while “pursuing efforts” towards 1.5C.
Drumbeat of ‘disappointment’
This message is likely to be reinforced by a UN “synthesis report”, compiling the impact of new NDCs and due to be published on 24 October.
It will likely be reiterated in early November by the UN’s annual “emissions gap” report. Last year’s report had called for a “quantum leap” in ambition, which has yet to materialise.
This is all despite an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice in July, which said that 1.5C should be considered the “primary temperature goal” of global climate efforts – and that countries should make “adequate contributions” towards meeting it.
Meanwhile, amid oil and gas advocacy from the Trump administration, debate is raging over whether fossil fuels have peaked – and whether climate efforts need a “pragmatic” reset.
This is set to culminate with a battle to control the narrative around the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook for 2025, also due in early November.
Avantika Goswami, programme manager for climate change at India’s Centre for Science and Environment, told Carbon Brief that the global climate regime was at a “turning point”, where agreements had been signed and targets set, but action was “stalling”. She said:
“Implementation is weak, finance is undelivered and trust in the UN system is eroding, amid trade wars, militarism, debt crises and fractured multilateralism.”
Can COP30 respond?
Just days after the raft of new reports, on 6-7 November, heads of state and government will gather in the Brazilian city of Belém for a leaders summit ahead of the COP30 climate talks.
Views differ on how COP30 should respond to the current challenges.
The Brazilian presidency is pushing for a formal COP decision on any “disappoint[ment]” over NDCs falling short, collectively, of what is needed to avoid dangerous global warming.
During initial consultations, the EU said it wanted climate ambition to be added to the COP agenda, while the groups of least developed countries (LDCs), small island states and Latin American countries supported a formal COP decision on the matter. Others pushed back.
Catherine Abreu, director of the International Climate Politics Hub, told Carbon Brief that COP30 would need to respond in some way. She said:
“It’s clear that credibility at COP30 will require a response to the fact that countries’ climate pledges don’t add up to the level of ambition needed to tackle the crisis. The question after this week is, how will the COP outcomes enrich our definition of ambition beyond a headline emissions reduction goal?”
Abreu added that COP30 would need to address barriers, including “the equitable finance needed to implement goals and a lagging transition away from fossil fuels”.
Amid frustration over slow progress, calls for reform of the COP process are getting louder.
Goswami concluded: “The needs and ambitions of the global south must now shape the climate narrative – and COP30 must reckon with this new balance of power.”
Watch, read, listen
GAME OVER?: A feature in the Wall Street Journal said that, as Trump “doubles down on fossil fuels”, the US is “forfeiting the clean-energy race to China”.
POPULIST PUSHBACK: The Drilled podcast talked to a sociologist and a political scientist about “the intersection between the rise of rightwing populism and increasing resistance to acting on climate”.
ADULTS ONLY: For the New York Times, the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Li Shuo wrote that China was “the adult in the room on climate now”, despite its “modest” new pledge.
Coming up
- 22-26 September: Fifth world congress of biosphere reserves, Hangzhou, China
- 27 September: Seychelles elections
- 28 September: Moldova elections
- 30 September-1 October: 42nd UN water meeting, Geneva, Switzerland
Pick of the jobs
- Indigenous Climate Action, research coordinator | Salary: $55,000-$68,000. Location: Remote
- Greater London Authority, head of climate change | Salary: £91,268. Location: London
- Stockholm Environment Institute, research fellow: climate impact and climate finance | Salary: Unknown. Location: Nairobi, Kenya
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 26 September 2025: China leads new climate pledges; Trump calls warming a ‘con job’; What comes next appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Climate Change
Record-Low Snowpack and Historic Heat Threaten New Mexico’s Time-Honored Irrigation Canals
As the Rio Grande dries out months early, water managers look to blessings, prayers and groundwater to save the acequias that have spread water, history and culture to farmers and families since the 16th century.
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.—On a sunny spring morning at the end of March, a woman raised her little girl above an irrigation ditch that runs just west of the Rio Grande in Albuquerque’s South Valley. The toddler, with a braided head piece crowning her long, brown hair and artificial flowers around her neck, enthusiastically tossed an assortment of colored petals into the water below as a small crowd cheered.
Record-Low Snowpack and Historic Heat Threaten New Mexico’s Time-Honored Irrigation Canals
The first three months of 2026 have been the fourth warmest on record, with each successive month surpassing historical averages by a greater margin.
While weak La Niña conditions pushed down temperatures at the start of the year, scientists expect the development of a strong – and potentially “super” – El Niño event by early autumn.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that shapes global weather patterns.
Based on temperature datasets from five different research groups, Carbon Brief predicts that 2026 is likely to be the second-warmest year on record.
The year is virtually certain to be one of the four warmest on record and, currently, has a 19% chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record.
However, the development of a strong El Niño event later this year would substantially increase the chance that 2027 will be the warmest year on record.
In addition to near-record warmth, the start of 2026 has seen record-low sea ice cover in the Arctic, with the year tying with 2025 for the lowest winter peak in the satellite record.
Fourth-warmest start to the year
In this latest quarterly state of the climate assessment, Carbon Brief analyses records from five different research groups that report global surface temperature records: NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF.
The figure below shows the annual temperatures from each of these groups since 1970, along with the average over the first three months of 2026.
(It is worth noting that warming in the first three months may not be representative of the year as a whole, as temperatures relative to pre-industrial levels tend to be larger in the northern hemispheric winter months of December, January and February.)
Carbon Brief provides a best estimate of global temperatures by averaging the different records using a common 1981-2010 baseline period and then adding in the average warming since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) across the datasets – NOAA, Hadley and Berkeley – that extend back to 1850. (This follows the approach taken by the World Meteorological Organization in its state of the climate reports.)
The figure below shows how global temperature so far in 2026 (black line) compares to each month in different years since 1940 (lines coloured by the decade in which they occurred).
The first three months of 2026 have been relatively warm, coming in in the top-five warmest on record across all the different scientific groups that report on global surface temperatures. This is despite the presence of weak La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific at the start of the year, which typically suppress global temperatures.
January 2026 was the fourth- or fifth-warmest January on record across all the groups, February was the fourth- to sixth-warmest and March was between the second and fourth warmest.
| Dataset | January | February | March |
|---|---|---|---|
| HadCRUT5 | 5th | 6th | Yet To Report |
| NOAA | 5th | 5th | 2nd |
| GISTEMP | 5th | 4th | 4th |
| Berkeley Earth | 4th | 4th | 4th |
| Copernicus ERA5 | 5th | 5th | 4th |
Global temperature anomalies have been steadily increasing since their low point in January, as La Niña conditions have faded.
When combined, the first three months of the year in 2026 were the fourth-warmest in the historical record, below only 2024, 2025 and 2016.
A potential ‘super’ El Niño
There is reason to expect that global temperatures will continue to increase over the remainder of the year, as a strong – or even “super” – El Niño event is expected to develop later in the year.
Since the start of April, 13 different modelling groups have published estimates of future El Niño strength through at least September. These, in turn, contain 637 different model runs, as each model is run multiple times to better characterise the range of potential El Niño development.
There are a number of different ways to assess the strength of an El Niño or La Niña event.
The most common is the temperature anomaly in the “Niño3.4” region of the tropical Pacific. In addition, these temperatures have the human warming signal removed from changes over time in that part of the Pacific.
There are other approaches to assessing the strength of El Niño, including the newly released relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which may be more accurate. However, RONI data is not readily available from all models today.
The figure below shows a distribution of Niño3.4 temperature anomalies across all of the runs of all of the models (top panel), as well as the range of runs across each of the individual models (bottom panel). Sustained sea surface temperatures in excess of 0.5C indicate an El Niño event, temperatures above 1.5C represent a strong El Niño event and above 2C is often referred to as a “super” El Niño event.
The latest climate models give a central (median) estimate of 2.2C warming by September – a scenario which would put the world firmly in “super” El Niño territory.
Warming would likely strengthen after September, as El Niño conditions generally peak between November and January.
However, there is still a wide spread among models, with some, such as CanESM5 and DWD, only showing a weak-to-moderate El Niño.
Historically, it has been hard to accurately forecast the development of El Niño during early spring, so it will be a few more months before scientists can be confident that a strong or super El Niño will develop.
Exceptional regional warmth
There were many regions of the planet that saw exceptional warmth in the first quarter of 2026. This includes much of the western US, western China and eastern Russia.
The figure below shows the temperature anomaly in the ERA5 dataset, relative to a more recent 1981-2010 baseline period. (ERA5 does not provide gridded data back to the pre-industrial era.)
In addition to temperature anomalies, it is useful to look at where new records have been set. The figure below shows each grid cell that saw one of the top-five warmest first-quarter periods on record, as well as the top-five coolest.
During the first quarter of 2026, 5.2% of the globe saw record warm temperatures, while virtually no place on earth had record cool temperatures. In addition, 24.3% of the globe was in the top-five warmest on record, whereas only 0.1% was in the bottom-five coolest on record.
On track to be second-warmest year on record
Carbon Brief estimates that the global average temperature in 2026 will be between 1.37C and 1.58C, with a best estimate 1.47C. This puts 2026 on track to likely be the second warmest year on record, though it could potentially be as high as the warmest or as low as the fourth warmest.
This is based on the relationship between the first three months and the annual temperatures for every year since 1970. The estimate also accounts for El Niño and La Niña conditions seen in the first three months of 2026, as well as how El Niño conditions are projected to develop across the rest of the year.
The analysis includes a wide range of possible outcomes in 2026, given that temperatures from only the first quarter of the year are available so far.
The chart below shows the expected range of 2026 temperatures using the Carbon Brief average of groups – including a best-estimate (red) and year-to-date value (yellow). Temperatures are shown with respect to the pre-industrial baseline period (1850-1900).
Carbon Brief’s projection suggests that 2026 is virtually certain to be one of the top-four warmest years, with a best-estimate – a 62% chance – that it ends up between 2024 and 2023 as the second-warmest year on record.
However, there remains a 19% chance that 2026 will be the warmest year on record – beating the prior record set in 2024. There is also a 19% chance that it will end up as the third- or fourth-warmest year.
The chances of a record-breaking year depends on the strength of El Niño, as well as how rapidly global temperatures warm up as El Niño develops.
There is also a roughly 30% chance that 2026 will be the second year that exceeds 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
While the development of a strong or “super” El Niño will give a boost to 2026 temperatures in the latter part of the year, its largest effects will likely be felt in 2027.
Historically, the year where El Niño develops has been warmer than usual, but the year that follows the phenomenon’s winter peak – for example, in 1998, 2016 and 2024 – is record-setting.
This is because there is an approximately three-month lag between the peak of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and the maximum global surface temperature response. If a super El Niño develops this year, it is likely that 2027 will set a new record.
Record-low winter Arctic sea ice
Earlier this year, Arctic sea ice saw the joint-smallest winter peak in a satellite record going back almost half a century.
Sea ice extent peaked for 2026 at 14.29m square kilometres (km2) on 15 March, marking a “statistical tie” with a record low recorded the year before, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
The figure below shows both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in 2026 (solid red and blue lines), the historical range in the record between 1979 and 2010 (shaded areas) and the record lows (dotted black line).
(Unlike global temperature records, which only report monthly averages, sea ice data is collected and updated on a daily basis, allowing sea ice extent to be viewed up to the present.)
Arctic sea ice set new record daily low values during periods of January, March and early April. Antarctic sea ice did not set any new records so far in 2026, but remains on the low end of the historical (1979-2010) range.
The post State of the climate: Strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for second-warmest year appeared first on Carbon Brief.
State of the climate: Strong El Niño puts 2026 on track for second-warmest year
Climate Change
Solar surge kept fossil electricity flat in 2025 as China and India made ‘historic’ shift
A record surge in clean power met all global electricity demand growth in 2025, preventing any increase in fossil fuel generation, according to energy think tank Ember.
Solar led the expansion, recording its fastest growth rate in eight years and meeting around 75% of new electricity demand alone.
Together with wind, hydropower and other low-carbon sources, the solar surge drove clean generation to rise by 887 TWh, slightly exceeding demand growth of 849 TWh and pushing fossil generation down by 0.2%, Ember said in a report published on Tuesday.
Much of this shift was driven by China and India, where rapid clean energy expansion outpaced electricity demand growth, leading to declines in fossil generation in both countries for the first time this century.
IEA slashes pre-war oil demand forecast by nearly a million barrels per day
“We have firmly entered the era of clean growth,” said Aditya Lolla, Ember’s managing director.
“Clean energy is now scaling fast enough to absorb rising global electricity demand, keeping fossil generation flat before its inevitable decline,” Lolla added.
China and India lead the way
A key driver of the global shift was a “historic” reversal in China and India, the largest contributors to fossil power growth over the past two decades, Ember said.
For the first time this century, electricity generation from fossil fuels fell in both countries in the same year, tipping the global balance.
In China, fossil generation dropped by 0.9%, its first decline since 2015, as rapid additions of solar and wind outpaced rising demand. In India, fossil generation fell by 3.3%, driven by record increases in solar and wind, strong hydro production and relatively slower demand growth.
This shift helped push renewables to around 34% of global electricity generation in 2025, overtaking coal for the first time in the modern era.
“China’s rapid expansion of solar and wind is meeting rising electricity demand at home while influencing the global electricity transition,” said Xunpeng Shi, president of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies.
“As the world’s largest builder of clean power, China’s progress is showing how growing demand can increasingly be met with clean electricity rather than fossil fuels,” Shi added.
Solar leading global energy supply growth
Reinforcing Ember’s findings, new analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed on Monday that solar has become the single largest driver of global energy supply growth, beyond the electricity sector.
In its latest Global Energy Review, the IEA found that solar PV accounted for more than a quarter of the increase in global energy demand in 2025, making it the first time any modern renewable source has taken the top spot.
The agency also reported that solar recorded the largest annual increase ever seen for any electricity generation technology.
Q&A: Will subsidy cuts for Chinese clean-tech exports hurt Africa’s solar boom?
Ember’s Lolla said clean energy is “redefining the foundation of energy security in a volatile world,” adding that “it is already helping countries reduce exposure to fossil fuel imports and costs while meeting rising electricity demand”.
‘Antidote to fossil fuel cost chaos‘
As the war in the Middle East disrupts global oil and gas supplies, the head of UN Climate Change, Simon Stiell, said the current crisis underscores the risks of fossil fuel dependence and the need for more secure, domestic energy sources.
“Wars don’t disrupt the supply of sunlight for solar power, and wind power does not depend on vulnerable shipping straits,” Stiell said.
Speaking at the opening of the Green Transformation Week conference in South Korea, Stiell encouraged countries to accelerate the transition to clean energy to regain control of their economies and national security.
Nigerians bet on solar as global oil shock hits wallets and power supplies
“War has once again revealed the soaring costs of fossil fuel dependency,” he said, warning that volatile energy markets are “holding economies around the world in a chokehold.”
“Clean energy is the antidote to fossil fuel cost chaos, because it is cheaper, safer and faster-to-market,” he added.
The post Solar surge kept fossil electricity flat in 2025 as China and India made ‘historic’ shift appeared first on Climate Home News.
Solar surge kept fossil electricity flat in 2025 as China and India made ‘historic’ shift
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