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新研究显示,中国来自农业机械的碳排放快速增长,可能会“阻碍”该国实现净零排放的目标。

这项发表在《自然-食品》(Nature Food)期刊上的研究发现,自1985年以来,中国农业机械CO2(二氧化碳)排放量增加了大约七倍。

研究人员利用政府发布的不同时期农机数量统计数据,计算了1985年至2020年期间CO2排放量及其他空气污染物的变化。

他们发现,自1985年以来,农业机械的CO2排放量平均每年增长近6%。

研究指出,按照中国实现2060年净零排放目标的路径,若农业机械化程度按“预期趋势”继续提升,其相关排放在2050年可能占中国总排放量的21%。

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作者表示,这可能会使中国实现减排目标更加困难,并导致空气质量“恶化”。

然而,研究还发现,如果广泛采用由可再生能源驱动的农业机械,有望减少65%至70%的相关排放。

一位未参与该研究的专家对Carbon Brief表示,尽管该研究“具有价值”,但农业机械不太可能在总排放量中占到如此高的比例。

“如果中国在减少其他排放源方面取得了快速进展……那么我预计在农业机械的脱碳方面也会取得显著成效。”她说。

农机相关排放

粮食系统大约占人类温室气体排放的三分之一。

这一数字涵盖了与粮食生产相关的所有排放——从因森林砍伐或土地使用变化导致的排放,到奶牛打嗝或粪便释放的甲烷。

这项新研究的数据来自《中国统计年鉴》,后者提供了各种社会经济指标的年度统计数据。研究者从中提取了中国农业机械的数量与功率、机械所用的燃料属性、耕地面积、人口等信息。

除了CO2排放量外,研究者还计算了三种与农业机械相关的空气污染物排放量:PM2.5(细颗粒物)、NOx(氮氧化物)和THC(总烃)。

研究者将农业机械分为四类:小型拖拉机、大型拖拉机、田间管理机械和收割机械。然后,他们计算了每类机械在每一年的CO2、PM2.5、NOx和THC排放量。

下图展示了1985年至2020年研究期间的CO2排放量。图中柱状表示不同类型农业机械的排放量:收割机械(浅蓝色)、田间管理机械(粉色)、小型拖拉机(浅绿色)和大型拖拉机(深绿色)。

Annual emissions of CO2 from farm machinery over 1985-2020. The colours indicate the type of machinery responsible for the emissions: small tractors (light green), large tractors (dark green), field-management machinery (pink) and harvesting machinery (light blue). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)

他们发现,农业机械CO2排放总量已从1985年的约23MtCO2(1MtCO2=百万吨二氧化碳),增长到2020年的近160MtCO2,年均增长率为5.7%。

这相当于2020年中国总排放量的约1.5%。虽然比例不高,但作者指出,这一排放量实际上超过了部分国家的年排放总量,如荷兰、菲律宾和尼日利亚。

尤其是,大型拖拉机所带来的排放量自2005年以来平稳增长,作者将此归因于“一系列推动大型机械化的政策”。

未参与该研究的中山大学教授覃章才表示,该研究将农业机械排放从更广泛的食品系统中拆分出来“提供了独特的视角”。覃教授表示,该做法“使政策制定者能够在不影响农业生产力的情况下,设计有针对性的干预措施”。

区域分布

研究者还将排放数据细化到省级层面,发现不同地区农业机械排放量差异很大。排放量最低省份仅有约0.1MtCO2,而排放最高的省份则达到17.5MtCO2。

他们发现,中国东部和东北的五个省份——山东、河南、黑龙江、河北和安徽,占农业机械排放总量的40%以上。这些省份合计拥有全国三分之一的耕地面积和约46%的农机总动力。

然而,即使在这些高排放地区之间,机械类型的构成也存在差异,有些省份更依赖大型拖拉机,有些则以田间管理机械为主。

未参与该研究的《Our World in Data》副主编汉娜·里奇(Hannah Ritchie)博士表示,这种次国家级排放分析是该研究的关键进展之一。

里奇博士解释说:“这种排放估算的空间分辨率极具价值,因为在中国这样幅员辽阔的国家,各地排放差异显著。它还为未来在不同机械化程度和低碳技术采纳率下的潜在排放路径,提供了重要的洞见。”

增长因素

研究人员确定了四个推动排放增加的社会经济因素:人口增长、人均耕地面积变化、机械化水平以及排放强度。

下图展示了由排放强度(深蓝色)、机械化水平(浅蓝色)、人均耕地面积(黄色)和人口(橙色)的变化所导致的CO2排放量变化(黑色)。

Total CO2 emissions (black) for the years 1985, 2000, 2010 and 2020. The emissions are broken down by four contributing factors: changes in emission intensity (dark blue), level of mechanisation (light blue), per-capita cropland area (yellow) and population (orange). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)

论文指出,在这些因素中,机械化水平的提升“主导”了排放变化。仅这些变化就导致1985年至2000年间排放量增加了约100%。

研究指出,人口增长也是研究区间早期农业机械排放量增长的重要驱动力,但自2000年以来,这一因素的影响有所减弱。

相比之下,作者指出,排放强度的上升总体上反而促使排放减少;而“耕作压力”在研究初期推动了排放上升,但自2000年起则转而起到抑制排放的作用。

碳排放目标

作者指出,根据现行政策,中国致力于“到2035年主要农作物生产实现全过程机械化”。

因此,他们警告称,若农业机械化持续增长且未加遏制,可能会对中国实现“双碳”目标构成挑战。(“双碳”目标指的是中国承诺在2030年前实现碳达峰,并在2060年前实现碳中和。)

作者指出,有效减排需在短期和长期分别采取不同策略,并强调从短期可用性来看,“生物燃料和天然气将在未来十年发挥重要作用”。

作者还认为,从长远来看,可再生能源以及绿氢“具有最大的减排潜力”。

此前研究表明,使用自动化设备、电动拖拉机和可再生能源可以减少90%的农业排放。

里奇表示,她“对农业机械的相对(排放量占比)在2050年能达到20%持一定怀疑态度”。

她补充道:“这基于一个假设,即这些排放大多不会减少,而其他大多数行业排放迅速下降。但如果中国在减少其他排放源,包括卡车等更大型的道路运输排放和其他农业排放方面取得快速进展……那么我预计在农业机械的脱碳方面也会取得显著成效。”

The post 中国农机排放量上升或“阻碍”净零目标实现 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/translations-rising-emissions-from-farm-equipment-could-hinder-chinas-net-zero-goals/

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A Tiny Caribbean Island Sued the Netherlands Over Climate Change, and Won

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The case shows that climate change is a fundamental human rights violation—and the victory of Bonaire, a Dutch territory, could open the door for similar lawsuits globally.

From our collaborating partner Living on Earth, public radio’s environmental news magazine, an interview by Paloma Beltran with Greenpeace Netherlands campaigner Eefje de Kroon.

A Tiny Caribbean Island Sued the Netherlands Over Climate Change, and Won

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Greenpeace organisations to appeal USD $345 million court judgment in Energy Transfer’s intimidation lawsuit

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SYDNEY, Saturday 28 February 2026 — Greenpeace International and Greenpeace organisations in the US announce they will seek a new trial and, if necessary, appeal the decision with the North Dakota Supreme Court following a North Dakota District Court judgment today awarding Energy Transfer (ET) USD $345 million. 

ET’s SLAPP suit remains a blatant attempt to silence free speech, erase Indigenous leadership of the Standing Rock movement, and punish solidarity with peaceful resistance to the Dakota Access Pipeline. Greenpeace International will also continue to seek damages for ET’s bullying lawsuits under EU anti-SLAPP legislation in the Netherlands.

Mads Christensen, Greenpeace International Executive Director said: “Energy Transfer’s attempts to silence us are failing. Greenpeace International will continue to resist intimidation tactics. We will not be silenced. We will only get louder, joining our voices to those of our allies all around the world against the corporate polluters and billionaire oligarchs who prioritise profits over people and the planet.

“With hard-won freedoms under threat and the climate crisis accelerating, the stakes of this legal fight couldn’t be higher. Through appeals in the US and Greenpeace International’s groundbreaking anti-SLAPP case in the Netherlands, we are exploring every option to hold Energy Transfer accountable for multiple abusive lawsuits and show all power-hungry bullies that their attacks will only result in a stronger people-powered movement.”

The Court’s final judgment today rejects some of the jury verdict delivered in March 2025, but still awards hundreds of millions of dollars to ET without a sound basis in law. The Greenpeace defendants will continue to press their arguments that the US Constitution does not allow liability here, that ET did not present evidence to support its claims, that the Court admitted inflammatory and irrelevant evidence at trial and excluded other evidence supporting the defense, and that the jury pool in Mandan could not be impartial.[1][2]

ET’s back-to-back lawsuits against Greenpeace International and the US organisations Greenpeace USA (Greenpeace Inc.) and Greenpeace Fund are clear-cut examples of SLAPPs — lawsuits attempting to bury nonprofits and activists in legal fees, push them towards bankruptcy and ultimately silence dissent.[3] Greenpeace International, which is based in the Netherlands, is pursuing justice in Europe, with a suit against ET under Dutch law and the European Union’s new anti-SLAPP directive, a landmark test of the new legislation which could help set a powerful precedent against corporate bullying.[4]

Kate Smolski, Program Director at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “This is part of a worrying trend globally: fossil fuel corporations are increasingly using litigation to attack and silence ordinary people and groups using the law to challenge their polluting operations — and we’re not immune to these tactics here in Australia.

“Rulings like this have a chilling effect on democracy and public interest litigation — we must unite against these silencing tactics as bad for Australians and bad for our democracy. Our movement is stronger than any corporate bully, and grows even stronger when under attack.”

Energy Transfer’s SLAPPs are part of a wave of abusive lawsuits filed by Big Oil companies like Shell, Total, and ENI against Greenpeace entities in recent years.[3] A couple of these cases have been successfully stopped in their tracks. This includes Greenpeace France successfully defeating TotalEnergies’ SLAPP on 28 March 2024, and Greenpeace UK and Greenpeace International forcing Shell to back down from its SLAPP on 10 December 2024.

-ENDS-

Images available in Greenpeace Media Library

Notes:

[1] The judgment entered by North Dakota District Court Judge Gion follows a jury verdict finding Greenpeace entities liable for more than US$660 million on March 19, 2025. Judge Gion subsequently threw out several items from the jury’s verdict, reducing the total damages to approximately US$345 million.

[2] Public statements from the independent Trial Monitoring Committee

[3] Energy Transfer’s first lawsuit was filed in federal court in 2017 under the RICO Act – the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, a US federal statute designed to prosecute mob activity. The case was dismissed in 2019, with the judge stating the evidence fell “far short” of what was needed to establish a RICO enterprise. The federal court did not decide on Energy Transfer’s claims based on state law, so Energy Transfer promptly filed a new case in a North Dakota state court with these and other state law claims.

[4] Greenpeace International sent a Notice of Liability to Energy Transfer on 23 July 2024, informing the pipeline giant of Greenpeace International’s intention to bring an anti-SLAPP lawsuit against the company in a Dutch Court. After Energy Transfer declined to accept liability on multiple occasions (September 2024, December 2024), Greenpeace International initiated the first test of the European Union’s anti-SLAPP Directive on 11 February 2025 by filing a lawsuit in Dutch court against Energy Transfer. The case was officially registered in the docket of the Court of Amsterdam on 2 July, 2025. Greenpeace International seeks to recover all damages and costs it has suffered as a result of Energy Transfers’s back-to-back, abusive lawsuits demanding hundreds of millions of dollars from Greenpeace International and the Greenpeace organisations in the US. The next hearing in the Court of Amsterdam is scheduled for 16 April, 2026.

Media contact:

Kate O’Callaghan on 0406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org

Greenpeace organisations to appeal USD $345 million court judgment in Energy Transfer’s intimidation lawsuit

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Former EPA Staff Detail Expanding Pollution Risks Under Trump

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The Trump administration’s relentless rollback of public health and environmental protections has allowed widespread toxic exposures to flourish, warn experts who helped implement safeguards now under assault.

In a new report that outlines a dozen high-risk pollutants given new life thanks to weakened, delayed or rescinded regulations, the Environmental Protection Network, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group of hundreds of former Environmental Protection Agency staff, warns that the EPA under President Donald Trump has abandoned the agency’s core mission of protecting people and the environment from preventable toxic exposures.

Former EPA Staff Detail Expanding Pollution Risks Under Trump

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