Dr. Mirianna Budimir is senior climate and resilience expert at Practical Action, and early warning systems lead for the Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance (ZCRA). Francisco Ianni is senior officer for climate resilience initiatives at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and heat hazards lead for the ZCRA. Carolina Pereira Marghidan is a technical advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.
Across the world, instances of extreme heat are occurring more frequently than ever. News of temperature records being shattered – all too often accompanied by reports detailing tragic loss of life – appear with frightening regularity. The threats posed by heatwaves are considerable, and due to the climate crisis are expected only to get worse.
It’s hard to think of any aspect of daily life unaffected by an extreme heat event. Health services quickly become overstretched; power systems buckle; and economic productivity grinds to a halt.
A new study by Mercy Corps in the rural region of Madesh in Nepal reveals the impact heatwaves are having on children’s education. “The classrooms feel like furnaces,” said one student. “The air is thick with hot air and foul smell of sweat, the walls trap the heat, and all I can think about is when I can escape.”
Scientists predict global warming of more than 1.5C for 2025-2029 period
Today is Heat Action Day, a global moment for raising awareness of heat risks. While we welcome and encourage the sharing of practical advice for staying safe, there’s so much more that needs to be done.
Knowing when and where these extreme heat events will occur is key to tackling the problem, and early warning systems hold enormous potential to reduce losses, suffering and death across the world. So why do they often fall short?
The fragmented landscape of heat warnings
Given the risks presented by heatwaves, and the relative ease of predicting temperature well in advance, over a hundred meteorological services – more than half of the global total – do provide warnings for instances of extreme heat.
However, many of these are informed solely by maximum temperature, and don’t capture prolonged, intense periods of heat. When the mercury refuses to drop for consecutive days and nights, the dangers are far greater.
This points to a bigger problem with heatwave warning systems: the lack of standardization. Analysis led by the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre has revealed stark inconsistencies in approaches to the monitoring, research and forecasting of heat across the world. This is in no small part due to the differing levels of capacity from region to region; but even the terminology varies wildly, with literally hundreds of definitions of extreme heat in use right now.
Then there’s an even greater concern, which is that many countries – particularly lower-income nations in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Southeast Asia – have no such warning system at all. As is too often the case, those most vulnerable to the risks are the ones with the least protection, with potentially lethal consequences.
Climate change-driven heatwaves hit Delhi’s Red Fort market traders
Break the silos to enhance resilience to heat
Closing these gaps requires the urgent scaling up of effective early warning systems for heatwaves. While national governments and donors have their part to play (particularly in the development and financing of low-cost solutions), improved coordination and cooperation at the global level would give these efforts a much-needed boost.
More standardization will certainly improve matters, and it is promising to see progress being made on this front. The World Meteorological Organization recently published a new definition for heatwaves, one that crucially captures their prolonged nature. In partnership with the World Health Organization, the WMO is also updating its decade-old guidance on heatwave warning system development. And a new handbook of extreme heat indicators, indices and metrics is expected later this year.
To continue this momentum, far greater transparency is required of all governments, institutions and organizations engaged in addressing heat-related risks. This should include the proactive sharing of knowledge, data and best practices, and collaborating wherever possible.
Low-income countries currently without protection from extreme heat events can use this information to rapidly build their capacity to assess their existing vulnerabilities, as well as develop and implement appropriate warning systems. Meanwhile, those already using such systems can make the necessary improvements to increase their effectiveness.
No one-size-fits-all solution for communities
A more coherent, coordinated approach to heatwave warning systems will be a massive step in the right direction. However, as with any such intervention, steps must be taken to avoid an overly top-down approach. If invaluable community insights go unheard, and potentially life-saving messages don’t reach the people they’re designed to help, we won’t see anything close to the levels of progress needed.
Only by taking a people-centred approach can the true potential of early warning systems be realized. Alerts need to be accessible and comprehensible to even the most remote and marginalized populations, and contain practical guidance informed by detailed, locally led risk assessments and response plans. The best way to do that is to ensure communities are active participants at every step of the process.
Women bear brunt of South Sudan’s heatwave made worse by climate change
One major flaw with the top-down model is that it rarely acknowledges how heat affects different people in different ways. Rather than issuing a blanket alert, early warning systems must target their messaging to those most at risk – be it pregnant women, elderly people, or outdoor labourers.
Where communities lack access to air-conditioned spaces and other opportunities for respite, that must also be taken into account. In every case, information on the likely impact of the heat, combined with guidance on how to mitigate it, is essential.
After over a decade enhancing resilience to floods around the world (including via warning systems), the Zurich Climate Resilience Alliance is applying the same community-centred approach to tackling heatwaves. In Pakistan, Senegal, the Philippines and more, we’re partnering with communities and national actors to conduct in-depth assessments and provide country-specific recommendations to enhance Heat Early Warning Systems.
No time to lose
By necessity, the world is beginning to act with more urgency to address the risks presented by heatwaves; but as life-threatening heat events increase in both frequency and intensity, we can’t afford to wait for the next heat-related tragedy before taking action.
This year, Heat Action Day falls on the opening day of the Global Platform For Disaster Risk Reduction in Geneva, at which Early Warning Systems will take centre stage. This is an unmissable opportunity to collaborate across continents and sectors, as part of a renewed commitment to a world in which all are protected from heatwaves and other climate hazards by effective and equitable early warning systems.
As temperatures rise, so too must our ambitions.
The post Early warnings for heatwaves can save lives – and we need them now appeared first on Climate Home News.
Early warnings for heatwaves can save lives – and we need them now
Doubts over whether governments will maintain ambitious targets on boosting the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are a threat to the industry’s growth and play into the hands of fossil fuel companies, investors warned this week.
Several executives from airlines and oil firms have forecast recently that SAF requirements in the European Union, United Kingdom and elsewhere will be eased or scrapped altogether, potentially upending the aviation industry’s main policy to shrink air travel’s growing carbon footprint.
Such speculation poses a “fundamental threat” to the SAF industry, which mainly produces an alternative to traditional kerosene jet fuel using organic feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO), Thomas Engelmann, head of energy transition at German investment manager KGAL, told the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Investor conference in London.
He said fossil fuel firms would be the only winners from questions about compulsory SAF blending requirements.
The EU and the UK introduced the world’s first SAF mandates in January 2025, requiring fuel suppliers to blend at least 2% SAF with fossil fuel kerosene. The blending requirement will gradually increase to reach 32% in the EU and 22% in the UK by 2040.
Another case of diluted green rules?
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, CEO of French oil and gas company TotalEnergies Patrick Pouyanné said he would bet “that what happened to the car regulation will happen to the SAF regulation in Europe”.
The EU watered down green rules for car-makers in March 2025 after lobbying from car companies, Germany and Italy.
“You will see. Today all the airline companies are fighting [against the EU’s 2030 SAF target of 6%],” Pouyanne said, even though it’s “easy to reach to be honest”.
While most European airline lobbies publicly support the mandates, Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary said last year that the SAF is “nonsense” and is “gradually dying a death, which is what it deserves to do”.
EU and UK stand by SAF targets
But the EU and the British government have disputed that. EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said in November that the EU’s targets are “stable”, warning that “investment decisions and construction must start by 2027, or we will miss the 2030 targets”.
UK aviation minister Keir Mather told this week’s investor event that meeting the country’s SAF blending requirement of 10% by 2030 was “ambitious but, with the right investment, the right innovation and the right outlook, it is absolutely within our reach”.
“We need to go further and we need to go faster,” Mather said.
SAF investors and developers said such certainty on SAF mandates from policymakers was key to drawing the necessary investment to ramp up production of the greener fuel, which needs to scale up in order to bring down high production costs. Currently, SAF is between two and seven times more expensive than traditional jet fuel.
Urbano Perez, global clean molecules lead at Spanish bank Santander, said banks will not invest if there is a perceived regulatory risk.
David Scott, chair of Australian SAF producer Jet Zero Australia, said developing SAF was already challenging due to the risks of “pretty new” technology requiring high capital expenditure.
“That’s a scary model with a volatile political environment, so mandate questioning creates this problem on steroids”, Scott said.
Others played down the risk. Glenn Morgan, partner at investment and advisory firm SkiesFifty, said “policy is always a risk”, adding that traditional oil-based jet fuel could also lose subsidies.
Asian countries join SAF mandate adopters
In Asia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Japan have recently adopted SAF mandates, and Matti Lievonen, CEO of Asia-based SAF producer EcoCeres, predicted that China, Indonesia and Hong Kong would follow suit.
David Fisken, investment director at the Australian Trade and Investment Commission, said the Australian government, which does not have a mandate, was watching to see how the EU and UK’s requirements played out.
The US does not have a SAF mandate and under President Donald Trump the government has slashed tax credits available for SAF producers from $1.75 a gallon to $1.
Is the world’s big idea for greener air travel a flight of fancy?
SAF and energy security
SAF’s potential role in boosting energy security was a major theme of this week’s discussions as geopolitical tensions push the issue to the fore.
Marcella Franchi, chief commercial officer for SAF at France’s Haffner Energy, said the Canadian government, which has “very unsettling neighbours at the moment”, was looking to produce SAF to protect its energy security, especially as it has ample supplies of biomass to use as potential feedstock.
Similarly, German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall said last year it was working on plans that would enable European armed forces to produce their own synthetic, carbon-neutral fuel “locally and independently of global fossil fuel supply chain”.
Scott said Australia needs SAF to improve its fuel security, as it imports almost 99% of its liquid fuels.
He added that support for Australian SAF production is bipartisan, in part because it appeals to those more concerned about energy security than tackling climate change.
The post Doubts over European SAF rules threaten cleaner aviation hopes, investors warn appeared first on Climate Home News.
Doubts over European SAF rules threaten cleaner aviation hopes, investors warn
Climate Change
Southern Right Whales Are Having Fewer Calves; Scientists Say a Warming Ocean Is to Blame
After decades of recovery from commercial whaling, climate change is now threatening the whales’ future.
Southern right whales—once driven to near-extinction by industrial hunting in the 19th and 20th centuries—have long been regarded as a conservation success. After the International Whaling Commission banned commercial whaling in the 1980s, populations began a slow but steady rebound. New research, however, suggests climate change may be undermining that recovery.
Southern Right Whales Are Having Fewer Calves; Scientists Say a Warming Ocean Is to Blame
Climate Change
Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding
The Lincolnshire constituency held by Richard Tice, the climate-sceptic deputy leader of the hard-right Reform party, has been pledged at least £55m in government funding for flood defences since 2024.
This investment in Boston and Skegness is the second-largest sum for a single constituency from a £1.4bn flood-defence fund for England, Carbon Brief analysis shows.
Flooding is becoming more likely and more extreme in the UK due to climate change.
Yet, for years, governments have failed to spend enough on flood defences to protect people, properties and infrastructure.
The £1.4bn fund is part of the current Labour government’s wider pledge to invest a “record” £7.9bn over a decade on protecting hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses from flooding.
As MP for one of England’s most flood-prone regions, Tice has called for more investment in flood defences, stating that “we cannot afford to ‘surrender the fens’ to the sea”.
He is also one of Reform’s most vocal opponents of climate action and what he calls “net stupid zero”. He denies the scientific consensus on climate change and has claimed, falsely and without evidence, that scientists are “lying”.
Flood defences
Last year, the government said it would invest £2.65bn on flood and coastal erosion risk management (FCERM) schemes in England between April 2024 and March 2026.
This money was intended to protect 66,500 properties from flooding. It is part of a decade-long Labour government plan to spend more than £7.9bn on flood defences.
There has been a consistent shortfall in maintaining England’s flood defences, with the Environment Agency expecting to protect fewer properties by 2027 than it had initially planned.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has attributed this to rising costs, backlogs from previous governments and a lack of capacity. It also points to the strain from “more frequent and severe” weather events, such as storms in recent years that have been amplified by climate change.
However, the CCC also said last year that, if the 2024-26 spending programme is delivered, it would be “slightly closer to the track” of the Environment Agency targets out to 2027.
The government has released constituency-level data on which schemes in England it plans to fund, covering £1.4bn of the 2024-26 investment. The other half of the FCERM spending covers additional measures, from repairing existing defences to advising local authorities.
The map below shows the distribution of spending on FCERM schemes in England over the past two years, highlighting the constituency of Richard Tice.
By far the largest sum of money – £85.6m in total – has been committed to a tidal barrier and various other defences in the Somerset constituency of Bridgwater, the seat of Conservative MP Ashley Fox.
Over the first months of 2026, the south-west region has faced significant flooding and Fox has called for more support from the government, citing “climate patterns shifting and rainfall intensifying”.
He has also backed his party’s position that “the 2050 net-zero target is impossible” and called for more fossil-fuel extraction in the North Sea.
Tice’s east-coast constituency of Boston and Skegness, which is highly vulnerable to flooding from both rivers and the sea, is set to receive £55m. Among the supported projects are beach defences from Saltfleet to Gibraltar Point and upgrades to pumping stations.
Overall, Boston and Skegness has the second-largest portion of flood-defence funding, as the chart below shows. Constituencies with Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs occupied the other top positions.
Overall, despite Labour MPs occupying 347 out of England’s 543 constituencies – nearly two-thirds of the total – more than half of the flood-defence funding was distributed to constituencies with non-Labour MPs. This reflects the flood risk in coastal and rural areas that are not traditional Labour strongholds.
Reform funding
While Reform has just eight MPs, representing 1% of the population, its constituencies have been assigned 4% of the flood-defence funding for England.
Nearly all of this money was for Tice’s constituency, although party leader Nigel Farage’s coastal Clacton seat in Kent received £2m.
Reform UK is committed to “scrapping net-zero” and its leadership has expressed firmly climate-sceptic views.
Much has been made of the disconnect between the party’s climate policies and the threat climate change poses to its voters. Various analyses have shown the flood risk in Reform-dominated areas, particularly Lincolnshire.
Tice has rejected climate science, advocated for fossil-fuel production and criticised Environment Agency flood-defence activities. Yet, he has also called for more investment in flood defences, stating that “we cannot afford to ‘surrender the fens’ to the sea”.
This may reflect Tice’s broader approach to climate change. In a 2024 interview with LBC, he said:
“Where you’ve got concerns about sea level defences and sea level rise, guess what? A bit of steel, a bit of cement, some aggregate…and you build some concrete sea level defences. That’s how you deal with rising sea levels.”
While climate adaptation is viewed as vital in a warming world, there are limits on how much societies can adapt and adaptation costs will continue to increase as emissions rise.
The post Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Constituency of Reform’s climate-sceptic Richard Tice gets £55m flood funding
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