Published

1 year ago

December 24, 2024

Alice Rush

COP29 host nation Azerbaijan has proclaimed a lofty ambition for this year’s UN climate summit: pausing the conflicts currently wreaking havoc around the world.

If governments follow Baku’s plan, theatres of war – from Gaza to Ukraine – would fall still next month while diplomats fight over the finer details of climate action under the “COP Truce” vision championed by the Azerbaijan presidency of the November 11-22 COP29 talks.

Baku has spoken proudly of its initiative gaining “significant traction”, with 127 countries and nearly 1,100 non-state groups supporting the appeal so far.

But a list of early endorsers features several warring states, deepening skepticism about the real impact and intentions of the initiative at a time when conflicts – which number more than 50 today – are provoking insecurity and severe humanitarian crises in many parts of the globe.

Speaking to Climate Home, veteran climate campaigners and geopolitical experts criticised the COP Truce as a “performative… PR exercise” and “a distraction” from a separate UN-supported push to strengthen climate action in conflict-affected regions.

Meanwhile, as hopes dwindle of Azerbaijan clinching its own peace deal with neighbour Armenia by COP29, Laurence Broers, associate fellow with Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme, warned about the risks of the “peace COP brand” looking “empty of content”.

World peace aspirations

Alongside the formal government negotiations, the annual climate summits see COP presidencies launch an ever-growing list of voluntary initiatives, hoping to get as many as possible governments, business groups and civil society organisations to sign onto them.

Azerbaijan has pinned its appeal for a “COP Truce” at the top of its list of voluntary declarations for COP29. Taking inspiration from the Olympic Truce, first established in ancient Greece, Baku wants all fighting parties worldwide to lay down their arms while country leaders and diplomats discuss climate policy.

Modi, Macron, Xi and Biden among many leaders yet to request COP29 speech

The initiative “will highlight the importance of peace and climate action” and “aim to remind all nations of the interplay between conflict and climate change”, the COP29 presidency said.

The centrepiece is a 10-line “solemn appeal”, which governments and observer groups are being urged to endorse.

Its signatories “call on everyone to observe the COP Truce during the month of COP29” – but they are not required to explicitly commit to cease hostilities themselves. “It is a generic appeal for the international community to observe a ceasefire during the COP,” Yalchin Rafiyev, Azerbaijan’s lead negotiator for COP29, told Climate Home at a press briefing.

The inherent paradox is exemplified by some of the early backers of the initiative.

War-waging signatories

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the truce appeal has been supported by all member states of the “Non-Aligned Movement”, a forum of 120 countries originally set up in the Cold War era as a buffer between the United States and the Soviet Union.

The movement counts among its members several countries now involved in bloody civil wars and international conflicts, including Sudan, Myanmar and Palestine.

A Sudanese national flag is attached to a machine gun of Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) soldiers. (Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File)

A COP29 official did not reply to Climate Home’s question asking what concrete purpose the COP Truce initiative would serve given the presence of warring countries among its signatories. But in emailed comments, they said the appeal “is meant to enhance ambition, set aside differences, and prioritize peace and climate action”.

The COP29 presidency has also been enlisting international non-state organisations to support the initiative, alongside governments.

It said nearly 1,100 groups have put their name next to the appeal so far. Climate Home requested a full list of signatories but a COP29 official said that would not be shared until November 15 during COP’s “Peace, Relief and Recovery Day”.

The only publicly available information shows support from around 100 NGOs linked to the Baku-based chapter of the Islamic Cooperation Youth Forum. Listed signatories feature a wide range of predominantly grassroots groups in Central and Southeast Asia, including Uzbekistan’s ‘Council of Young Farmers’ and Azerbaijan’s ‘Erasmus Student Network’.

Scepticism and mild support

Climate Home has surveyed around a dozen international organisations deeply involved in the climate, conflict and human rights agendas at the COP. It found deep scepticism in some quarters – and no more than limited support for the initiative in others.

Tasneem Essop, executive director of the influential Climate Action Network and coordinator of the coalition of environmental non-governmental organisations (ENGO) at the UN talks, told Climate Home that the Azerbaijan presidency had approached the UNFCCC Observer Constituencies – including ENGO – in early September asking them to endorse the truce declaration.

“We had a number of important questions about the practical implications of the declaration and what it meant, for example, for our efforts to spotlight human rights abuses,” she said. “But they did not give us the time to engage properly, so obviously we did not sign on.”

CAN’s Tasneem Essop speaking at an event during COP27 in November 2022. Photo: ENB/IISD

Essop also said that “in its current form, it is a hollow and performative ‘motherhood and apple pie’ declaration that does not deal with the fundamental and systemic issues causing wars and conflict.”

“At best, it appears to simply be a PR exercise,” she added.

On the other hand, the COP Truce appeal has received the support of a different UN constituency representing local government and municipal authorities. Its coordinator Yunus Arikan, director of global advocacy at local government sustainability group ICLEI, told Climate Home they hoped the initiative could have “transformative impacts” despite the “huge challenges that lie ahead”.

“But even if this may not fulfill all its aspirations, we still believe it is a worthwhile effort, as it is a moral duty of all governments and leaders to prevent destruction of our livelihoods, either as a result of climate change or through armed conflicts and wars,” he added.

Conflict blind spot in climate action

Nonetheless, Azerbaijan’s appeal has raised an eyebrow among organisations that have been at the forefront of efforts to put a spotlight on the nexus between climate change and conflict at UN climate summits.

The UAE COP28 presidency last year inaugurated a thematic day dedicated to the connection between climate and peace. It culminated in a detailed declaration through which over 100 governments, NGOs and private-sector institutions committed to scale up climate action, including channeling more investment, in war-torn regions.

London-based think-tank ODI was one of the driving forces behind last year’s declaration, but told Climate Home it won’t be throwing its weight behind Azerbaijan’s ceasefire appeal.

“The COP29 Truce is a nice idea but it’s ultimately a distraction – and one that was always unlikely to succeed, as we saw from the failed Olympic truce earlier this year,” said Mauricio Vazquez, ODI’s head of policy for global risks and resilience.

Comment: Why we need new laws to end coal, oil and gas – now

“Noise” from the truce day should not deflect the focus from the “huge” conflict blind spot in climate action, he added.

“More than half of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries are also fragile or experiencing conflict – yet they receive only a fraction of the finance which goes to more stable places,” Vazquez said. “A temporary truce will not fix these issues.”

Humanitarian aid group Mercy Corps – another signatory of the COP28 declaration – told Climate Home it is still weighing up whether to join Azerbaijan’s truce appeal, but added that its focus is primarily on building momentum from last year’s initiative and turning pledges into action.

Nagorno-Karabakh legacy

Notwithstanding any concrete outcomes, the initiative is also widely seen by geopolitical analysts as an attempt by Azerbaijan to burnish its peace credentials just over a year after putting a forceful end to its decades-long conflict with Armenia over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Baku conquered the contested region in a two-part military offensive, concluding in autumn 2023, that led to the mass exodus of some 136,000 ethnic Armenians. For Armenian authorities and some human rights and legal experts, the drive amounted to “ethnic cleansing” – a view Azerbaijan categorically rejects.

In Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s net zero vision clashes with legacy of war

Top Azeri diplomats and government officials have drawn a direct link between the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and the COP29 peace appeal.

Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy advisor to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, wrote last week in an op-ed for Newsweek that it “would be a mistake for us not to try” pushing for a COP Truce “when the COP29 meeting in Baku is itself the product of a truce – one few believed possible”.

Hajiyev was referring to a deal struck between Azerbaijan and Armenia in December 2023 that paved the way for Baku to host this year’s climate summit. Armenia backed Azerbaijan’s COP29 bid, while Baku agreed to release 32 Armenian prisoners captured during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Faltering peace process

That agreement was interpreted as a potential stepping stone towards a fully-fledged peace deal between the two nations, with watchers seeing COP29 as an ideal backdrop for the much-trailed accord to be finalised.

But hopes of that dwindled last week after President Aliyev turned down Armenia’s latest proposal to sign a peace deal, describing it as “unrealistic”. Armenia is absent from a preliminary list of countries sending their heads of state to speak at COP29’s high-level opening session, raising doubts over the participation of the country’s leaders at the summit.

Broers, of London-based think-tank Chatham House, said he does not expect the signing of a “significant” agreement “before, at or for a long time after the COP29 conference”.

“The statements in recent days and weeks show they are a long way off,” he told Climate Home. “What might be meaningful would be for Baku and Yerevan to use the COP29 venue to sign off on a new package of confidence-building measures on joint environmental action. Without some such steps, the whole ‘peace COP’ brand looks empty of content.”

(Reporting by Matteo Civillini; editing by Megan Rowling)

The post In a warring world, Azerbaijan’s COP29 truce appeal draws fire as “PR exercise” appeared first on Climate Home News.

In a warring world, Azerbaijan’s COP29 truce appeal draws fire as “PR exercise”

Climate Change

Whale Entanglements in Fishing Gear Surge Off U.S. West Coast During Marine Heatwaves

Published

9 hours ago

February 25, 2026

Alice Rush

New research finds that rising ocean temperatures are shrinking cool-water feeding grounds, pushing humpbacks into gear-heavy waters near shore. Scientists say ocean forecasting tool could help fisheries reduce the risk.

By Teresa Tomassoni

Each spring, humpback whales start to feed off the coast of California and Oregon on dense schools of anchovies, sardines and krill—prey sustained by cool, nutrient-rich water that seasonal winds draw up from the deep ocean.

Whale Entanglements in Fishing Gear Surge Off U.S. West Coast During Marine Heatwaves

Climate Change

Grasslands and Wetlands Are Being Gobbled Up By Agriculture, Mostly Livestock

Published

9 hours ago

February 25, 2026

Alice Rush

A new study takes a first-of-its kind look at how farming converts non-forested areas and major carbon sinks into cropland and pasture.

By Georgina Gustin

Agriculture is widely known to be the biggest driver of forest destruction globally, especially in sprawling, high-profile ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest.

Grasslands and Wetlands Are Being Gobbled Up By Agriculture, Mostly Livestock

Climate Change

Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate

Published

20 hours ago

February 25, 2026

Alice Rush

We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Food inflation on the rise

DELUGE STRIKES FOOD: Extreme rainfall and flooding across the Mediterranean and north Africa has “battered the winter growing regions that feed Europe…threatening food price rises”, reported the Financial Times. Western France has “endured more than 36 days of continuous rain”, while farmers’ associations in Spain’s Andalusia estimate that “20% of all production has been lost”, it added. Policy expert David Barmes told the paper that the “latest storms were part of a wider pattern of climate shocks feeding into food price inflation”.

Sign up to Carbon Brief’s free “Cropped” email newsletter. A fortnightly digest of food, land and nature news and views. Sent to your inbox every other Wednesday.

NO BEEF: The UK’s beef farmers, meanwhile, “face a double blow” from climate change as “relentless rain forces them to keep cows indoors”, while last summer’s drought hit hay supplies, said another Financial Times article. At the same time, indoor growers in south England described a 60% increase in electricity standing charges as a “ticking timebomb” that could “force them to raise their prices or stop production, which will further fuel food price inflation”, wrote the Guardian.

‘TINDERBOX’ AND TARIFFS: A study, covered by the Guardian, warned that major extreme weather and other “shocks” could “spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK”. Experts cited “chronic” vulnerabilities, including climate change, low incomes, poor farming policy and “fragile” supply chains that have made the UK’s food system a “tinderbox”. A New York Times explainer noted that while trade could once guard against food supply shocks, barriers such as tariffs and export controls – which are being “increasingly” used by politicians – “can shut off that safety valve”.

El Niño looms

NEW ENSO INDEX: Researchers have developed a new index for calculating El Niño, the large-scale climate pattern that influences global weather and causes “billions in damages by bringing floods to some regions and drought to others”, reported CNN. It added that climate change is making it more difficult for scientists to observe El Niño patterns by warming up the entire ocean. The outlet said that with the new metric, “scientists can now see it earlier and our long-range weather forecasts will be improved for it.”

WARMING WARNING: Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 60% chance of the current La Niña conditions shifting towards a neutral state over the next few months, with an El Niño likely to follow in late spring, according to Reuters. The Vibes, a Malaysian news outlet, quoted a climate scientist saying: “If the El Niño does materialise, it could possibly push 2026 or 2027 as the warmest year on record, replacing 2024.”

CROP IMPACTS: Reuters noted that neutral conditions lead to “more stable weather and potentially better crop yields”. However, the newswire added, an El Niño state would mean “worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season” to Australia. El Niño also “typically brings a poor south-west monsoon to India, including droughts”, reported the Hindu’s Business Line. A 2024 guest post for Carbon Brief explained that El Niño is linked to crop failure in south-eastern Africa and south-east Asia.

News and views

DAM-AG-ES: Several South Korean farmers filed a lawsuit against the country’s state-owned utility company, “seek[ing] financial compensation for climate-related agricultural damages”, reported United Press International. Meanwhile, a national climate change assessment for the Philippines found that the country “lost up to $219bn in agricultural damages from typhoons, floods and droughts” over 2000-10, according to Eco-Business.
SCORCHED GRASS: South Africa’s Western Cape province is experiencing “one of the worst droughts in living memory”, which is “scorching grass and killing livestock”, said Reuters. The newswire wrote: “In 2015, a drought almost dried up the taps in the city; farmers say this one has been even more brutal than a decade ago.”
NOUVELLE VEG: New guidelines published under France’s national food, nutrition and climate strategy “urged” citizens to “limit” their meat consumption, reported Euronews. The delayed strategy comes a month after the US government “upended decades of recommendations by touting consumption of red meat and full-fat dairy”, it noted.
COURTING DISASTER: India’s top green court accepted the findings of a committee that “found no flaws” in greenlighting the Great Nicobar project that “will lead to the felling of a million trees” and translocating corals, reported Mongabay. The court found “no good ground to interfere”, despite “threats to a globally unique biodiversity hotspot” and Indigenous tribes at risk of displacement by the project, wrote Frontline.
FISH FALLING: A new study found that fish biomass is “falling by 7.2% from as little as 0.1C of warming per decade”, noted the Guardian. While experts also pointed to the role of overfishing in marine life loss, marine ecologist and study lead author Dr Shahar Chaikin told the outlet: “Our research proves exactly what that biological cost [of warming] looks like underwater.”
TOO HOT FOR COFFEE: According to new analysis by Climate Central, countries where coffee beans are grown “are becoming too hot to cultivate them”, reported the Guardian. The world’s top five coffee-growing countries faced “57 additional days of coffee-harming heat” annually because of climate change, it added.

Spotlight

Nature talks inch forward

This week, Carbon Brief covers the latest round of negotiations under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which occurred in Rome over 16-19 February.

The penultimate set of biodiversity negotiations before October’s Conference of the Parties ended in Rome last week, leaving plenty of unfinished business.

The CBD’s subsidiary body on implementation (SBI) met in the Italian capital for four days to discuss a range of issues, including biodiversity finance and reviewing progress towards the nature targets agreed under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF).

However, many of the major sticking points – particularly around finance – will have to wait until later this summer, leaving some observers worried about the capacity for delegates to get through a packed agenda at COP17.

The SBI, along with the subsidiary body on scientific, technical and technological advice (SBSTTA) will both meet in Nairobi, Kenya, later this summer for a final round of talks before COP17 kicks off in Yerevan, Armenia, on 19 October.

Money talks

Finance for nature has long been a sticking point at negotiations under the CBD.

Discussions on a new fund for biodiversity derailed biodiversity talks in Cali, Colombia, in autumn 2024, requiring resumed talks a few months later.

Despite this, finance was barely on the agenda at the SBI meetings in Rome. Delegates discussed three studies on the relationship between debt sustainability and implementation of nature plans, but the more substantive talks are set to take place at the next SBI meeting in Nairobi.

Several parties “highlighted concerns with the imbalance of work” on finance between these SBI talks and the next ones, reported Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB).

Lim Li Ching, senior researcher at Third World Network, noted that tensions around finance permeated every aspect of the talks. She told Carbon Brief:

“If you’re talking about the gender plan of action – if there’s little or no financial resources provided to actually put it into practice and implement it, then it’s [just] paper, right? Same with the reporting requirements and obligations.”

Monitoring and reporting

Closely linked to the issue of finance is the obligations of parties to report on their progress towards the goals and targets of the GBF.

Parties do so through the submission of national reports.

Several parties at the talks pointed to a lack of timely funding for driving delays in their reporting, according to ENB.

A note released by the CBD Secretariat in December said that no parties had submitted their national reports yet; by the time of the SBI meetings, only the EU had. It further noted that just 58 parties had submitted their national biodiversity plans, which were initially meant to be published by COP16, in October 2024.

Linda Krueger, director of biodiversity and infrastructure policy at the environmental not-for-profit Nature Conservancy, told Carbon Brief that despite the sparse submissions, parties are “very focused on the national report preparation”. She added:

“Everybody wants to be able to show that we’re on the path and that there still is a pathway to getting to 2030 that’s positive and largely in the right direction.”

Watch, read, listen

NET LOSS: Nigeria’s marine life is being “threatened” by “ghost gear” – nets and other fishing equipment discarded in the ocean – said Dialogue Earth.

COMEBACK CAUSALITY: A Vox long-read looked at whether Costa Rica’s “payments for ecosystem services” programme helped the country turn a corner on deforestation.

HOMEGROWN GOALS: A Straits Times podcast discussed whether import-dependent Singapore can afford to shelve its goal to produce 30% of its food locally by 2030.

‘RUSTING’ RIVERS: The Financial Times took a closer look at a “strange new force blighting the [Arctic] landscape”: rivers turning rust-orange due to global warming.

New science

Lakes in the Congo Basin’s peatlands are releasing carbon that is thousands of years old | Nature Geoscience
Natural non-forest ecosystems – such as grasslands and marshlands – were converted for agriculture at four times the rate of land with tree cover between 2005 and 2020 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Around one-quarter of global tree-cover loss over 2001-22 was driven by cropland expansion, pastures and forest plantations for commodity production | Nature Food