国际能源署（IEA）在一份报告中称，热泵的普及可以加快中国高碳排的建筑和轻工业在用暖过程中的脱碳。
这份与清华大学合作发布的报告认为，由于使用热泵可以提高电气化程度并改善能效，因此如果把使用热泵作为中国实现2060年碳中和战略的一部分，为建筑供暖而产生的直接碳排放量到2025年将下降75%，降至7000万吨二氧化碳（MtCO2）。
同样，使用热泵也有助于减少为轻工业生产提供热量而产生二氧化碳排放。这可以将直接排放量从目前的1.1亿吨二氧化碳，减少到2050年的1000万吨二氧化碳以下。
2023年，中国是少数几个热泵总销量上升的国家之一。然而，报告指出，热泵的普及和建筑、轻工业向使用更多低碳能源的转型仍需要更多政策支持。
中国在供热方面消耗了多少能源？
2022年，中国的终端能源消费量为107艾焦（EJ）。国际能源署报告称，这其中热力消费量约为50艾焦。中国热力消费量相当于全球热力消费总量的“约三分之一”。
中国约四分之一的热力用于建筑业，其余用于工业。
在建筑领域，过去十年中国的热力消费增长速度超过任何其他国家，在2022年达到12艾焦。这主要是由于空间和水的用热需求不断增长，自2000年以来，直接和间接排放量增加了“近三倍”。
自2010年以来，用于供热的煤炭消费量总体下降了15%。国际能源署的报告将此归功于2010年代中期开始的政策推动。这些政策最初是“为了改善空气质量，后来是为了扩大清洁低碳能源的供暖”。
然而，区域供热——即集中供热机制——是一个例外。它是中国北方城市地区的主要热源。热泵和其他分散式解决方案在中国南方和北方农村地区更为常见。
中国北方的区域供热网络80%以上的热量生产来自煤炭。据国际能源署称，这是全国建筑供热中煤炭消耗的主要驱动因素。
2019年的一项研究发现，中国仅区域供热的碳排放量就超过了英国的二氧化碳排放总量。
该报告的主要作者基亚拉·德尔马斯特罗（Chiara Delmastro）博士和拉斐尔·马丁内斯·戈登（Rafael Martinez Gordon）博士告诉Carbon Brief：“（这）主要是由于中国北方城市（供热）网络扩张的推动，特别是……自2010年以来，区域供热网络的长度增加了250%，其中绝大部分在北方。”
不过，德尔马斯特罗和马丁内斯·戈登也指出，“中国近年来已经采取行动，朝着更清洁、更高效的供暖方向发展”——例如，从使用燃煤锅炉向更高效的热电联产电厂转型。
同时，2022年的工业用热总量为38艾焦。其中部分需求为中低温热力（低于200°C），这通常是轻工业、纸浆和造纸行业，以及一些化工行业工序所需的。
报告称，2022年这些中低温热力的需求量为4.7艾焦，直接碳排放量超过1.1亿吨二氧化碳，它可以通过现有最先进的热泵技术轻松满足。
然而，超过80%的工业供热需求需要200°C以上温度，这样的高温主要用于钢铁制造。其他需要如此高温的行业包括非金属矿物和有色金属，以及化工和石化、纸浆和造纸行业的一些流程。这些行业是工业供热需求的大用户，在2022年的消费量为33艾焦。
热泵如何帮助中国实现“双碳”目标？
中国建筑业和工业的供热需求主要由煤炭驱动，占中国煤炭消费量和二氧化碳排放量的40%。
不过，国际能源署也指出，煤炭供热量已略有减少，这主要归功于“改善空气质量、减少二氧化碳排放和最大限度提高能效的政策”。
2022年，在中国建筑的直接排放中，空间和水用热产生的碳排放量占绝大多数，约为2.9亿吨二氧化碳，而轻工业用热产生的直接排放总量为1.1亿吨二氧化碳。据国际能源署预计，中国2022年碳排放总量达到121.35亿吨二氧化碳。
该报告提供了在已宣布承诺情景（APS）下中国热泵使用量的估算。在该情景下，政府被假定会按时、全面地实现其所有气候目标。
报告还考察了既定政策情景（STEPS）下的热泵使用量情况，其反映了国际能源署自己对政府政策当前走向的判断。
如果中国坚持其“双碳”承诺、与已宣布承诺情景保持一致，那么国际能源署预计到2050年，建筑业热泵的装机容量将增至1400吉瓦（GW），可满足中国在该行业四分之一的用热需求。
根据已宣布承诺情景，到2050年，中国建筑行业每年将安装100吉瓦的热泵，相当于“美国、中国和欧盟在2022年部署的总容量”。
到2050年，建筑供热的排放量将从2.9亿吨二氧化碳降至8000万吨，减少2.1亿吨，其中热泵的贡献占到了30%。建筑业脱碳的其他驱动力还包括更多地采用电气化、能效措施和行为改变。
在轻工业方面，根据已宣布承诺情景，在2025至2050年间，中国每年将新增热泵装机容量约1.5吉瓦，可以在2050年满足五分之一的用热需求。
这将有助于“大幅”减少碳排放，其总量将从逾1.1亿吨二氧化碳锐减95%至1000万吨。电气化（包括通过采用热泵）将贡献减排量的70%。
报告还指出，有两个高耗能行业非常适合使用热泵：其一是纸浆和造纸行业，其目前约55%的用热需求可由工业热泵提供；其二是化工行业，该行业约18%的需求可由工业热泵提供。
然而，热泵不太可能满足其他高耗能行业的需求，因为“目前只有少数能满足200摄氏度以上温度的早期原型机，所有这些都远未为大众市场做好准备”。
即使在既定政策情景下，中国建筑行业中的热泵存量也将翻一番，到2050年将超过1100吉瓦，并推动建筑业排放量减少25%以上，煤改气等燃料转换措施也将发挥作用。
对于轻工业而言，在既定政策情景下，由热泵推动的碳减排 “仍然有限”，因为在当前的政策背景下，热泵的“部署可能比较缓慢”。总体而言，到2050年，与热力相关的排放量只会减少15%。
报告称，重要的是，在已宣布承诺情景下，中国和世界其他国家为实现气候目标所需的政策将“极大地调动”某些行业的积极性。采矿和机械等行业需要扩张，提高清洁能源技术产量，以满足国内和全球需求。
虽然与既定政策情景相比，这些新增工业活动将使已宣布承诺情景下中国的用热需求增加5%，但更广泛地应用电气化和清洁供热技术所节省的能源将足以抵消相关排放量。
此外，报告还指出，热泵的部署将使到2050年供热的能源强度（即单位热量的能源需求）比现在下降20%。
报告还补充称，随着更多可再生能源和核能发电并网，到2030年，热泵使用的扩张与电力系统去碳化之间的配合将使供热用电的间接排放量下降40%以上。到2050年，电力在供热中的份额可能超过75%。
例如，国际能源署指出，如果中国的气候目标得以实现，纸浆和造纸行业“到2050年将几乎完全淘汰”煤炭使用。由于电气化和煤改气，该行业已将煤炭在其能源需求中所占比例从2010年的43%减少到2022年的10%。
根据已宣布承诺情景，到2030年，中国用于空间和水供热的直接煤炭使用量将下降75%，到2040年将“几乎完全淘汰”，到2050年，热泵将成为城乡供热的关键技术。
然而，在这种情景下，需要大量投资才能部署足够的热泵来满足需求。
热泵在中国的应用效果如何？
报告称，在2023年，中国建筑业热泵装机容量超过250吉瓦，该国热泵销量占全球的25%以上，是2023年唯一热泵销量出现增长的主要市场。2022年，热泵占中国建筑业供热设备销售总量的8%。
在华中和华南部分地区，在没有集中区域供暖的情况下，热泵已成为建筑空间供暖和制冷的“常态”。报告补充说，由于当局通过政策支持鼓励农村地区限制煤炭消费，农村地区正在越来越多地采用热泵。
区域供热的情况也是如此，集中供暖管网运营商们正在越来越多地安装热泵。虽然大多数是在相对较低温度下运行的“空气源”热泵，但一些运营商也开始安装大型热泵，以回收钢铁厂、污水处理设施和煤化工工厂的废热。
报告称，这些热泵“为区域供热网络、建筑和工业提供了热力脱碳最有效的选择之一”。
目前中国单个热泵每年的碳排放量——无论是直接排放还是间接排放——都比燃气锅炉低30%以上。报告称：“从化石燃料锅炉转向热泵将减少几乎所有安装场所的二氧化碳排放”。
国际能源机构称，尽管热泵的前期安装成本较高，但它能帮助用户在使用期内节省能源开支。
下图显示了中国不同的气候带。在一些气候寒冷以及夏热冬冷的地区，空气能热泵比燃气锅炉和电加热器更具成本效益。
空气-水热泵比电取暖器更省钱，尽管在电价比天然气更有竞争力的地区，它们只比燃气锅炉便宜。
在高耗能行业中使用热泵的可行性较低，因为目前产生200°C以上高温的技术基本上仍在开发阶段。
但报告指出，对轻工业而言，工业热泵比燃气锅炉和电锅炉“便宜得多”，并且由于高能效，在其使用寿命内成本几乎可以与燃煤锅炉相媲美。
尽管如此，由于前期安装成本高昂以及公众对热泵的有效性缺乏认识，热泵的使用并不普遍。
德尔马斯特罗和马丁内斯·戈登告诉Carbon Brief：“在某些流程中，（热泵）的替代技术可能成本更低且更合适，而且不同的政策决定可能会刺激热泵应用的广泛性。但为了实现中国的碳中和目标，我们估计到2050年，热泵需至少满足轻工业20%的热力需求。”
该报告补充说，最先进的热泵——新发布或即将发布的热泵技术——能够很好地满足建筑领域和轻工业领域的用热需求，理论上可满足约40%的需求。
此外，中国目前浪费的热能资源可以通过热泵进行再利用。报告称，2021年，中国的核电站、其他发电厂、工业活动、数据中心和废水等来源产生了45艾焦的废热资源，几乎相当于建筑和工业用热需求总和。
政策如何支持热泵的应用？
作为能源转型的一个方面，热泵在中国国家级能源和气候政策中出现的频率“日益增加”。例如，《“十四五”现代能源体系规划》（2021-2025）要求提升终端用能低碳化电气化水平。
然而，德尔马斯特罗和马丁内斯·戈登解释说，国际能源署报告中更有针对性和实用的政策建议“应该（被纳入）一个明确的供热脱碳国家行动计划中，而这正是中国目前所缺乏的”。
该计划将使中国能够为热泵的使用设定量化目标，向市场发出明确信号，并促进对研发、制造和部署的更广泛投资。
与此同时，报告还建议：对新建建筑提出更严格的性能要求、制定更严格的能效基准、在建筑规范中纳入热泵安装要求，以及将国家碳排放权交易体系范围扩大到工业领域，这些都可以推动热泵的应用。
报告补充称，贷款、税收抵免和其他财政支持机制可以解决消费者不愿支付高昂的前期安装费用的问题。
北方城市天津为购买空气源热泵的用户提供了2.5万元（3700美元）的补贴，但这种做法（尤其在城市地区）并不普遍。
报告说，提高人们对工业热泵益处的认识并降低工业用电成本，可加快轻工业对热泵的采用。
电价激励措施已促使农村居民区从煤炭供暖转变为天然气供暖。根据国际能源署的计算，在北京的农村地区，类似的电价激励措施以及对安装热泵的补贴意味着热泵已成为当地家庭最便宜的取暖选择。
报告指出，在全国范围内推广这一政策可以“进一步提高热泵在目前电价明显高于天然气的地区的竞争力”。
其他可使热泵对消费者更具吸引力的措施包括，将热泵与太阳能电池板或太阳能光热解决方案相结合，以及调整电力系统以提供阶梯电价和分时电力市场措施。
最后，报告称，更多地回收废弃能源并结合热能储存技术，可以“通过将多余电力……转化为热能并储存起来供冬季供暖使用，从而优化供热”。
报告补充说，“以河北北部为例，到2050年，热泵从可再生能源和废热中回收的热力可占到冬季区域供热量的80%”。
The post 国际能源署：热泵可帮助中国减少75%为建筑供暖而产生的碳排放 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
But a $345 million U.S. verdict against the environmental group hangs over the case.
A lawsuit filed by Greenpeace International against the U.S.-based fossil fuel company Energy Transfer in the Netherlands is moving forward after a Dutch court recently ruled in favor of the environmental organization in rejecting the company’s bid to toss out the case.
Greenpeace’s Dutch Anti-SLAPP Case Against Oil Pipeline Giant Advances
Go behind the scenes with executive editor Vernon Loeb and oceans correspondent Teresa Tomassoni as they discuss the search for heat-resilient coral reefs that are somehow defying the odds to survive a warming planet.
The world has already lost more than half of its coral reefs, and most of what remains is at risk of disappearing in the next 25 years.
Climate Change
DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Bonn talks close
‘SIDE-STEPPING AND STALLING’: UN climate talks in Bonn have ended in “gridlock”, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reported on the failure to balance developing countries’ need for climate-adaptation finance with “richer nations’ desire to move forward” on emissions cuts. It added that both topics were subject to “rule 16”, meaning no agreement could be reached and work will be pushed to the COP31 summit in Turkey. Inside Climate News quoted UN climate executive secretary Simon Stiell, who said the talks had seen “side-stepping and stalling”.
JUST TRANSITION: One “glimmer of hope” came from negotiations on achieving a “just transition”, reported Euronews. The news outlet said negotiators “made headway on operationalising the Belém-Antalya mechanism”, intended to support people in the shift to a low-carbon economy. However, Politico concluded that much of the focus in Bonn had “shift[ed] to efforts outside diplomatic talks – raising questions about the future of global climate negotiations”.
‘ATTACKING SCIENCE’: Agence France-Presse reported on the EU, Switzerland and “dozens of developing nations” warning of “attacks on science” by a “small group of fossil-fuels interests” in Bonn. Table Briefings explained that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged” and the role of the UN climate-science panel – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – in an upcoming assessment of global climate progress “remains controversial”. See Carbon Brief’s full write-up of the talks for more detail.
US-Iran deal
PRICE DROP: The US and Iran announced that they have reached an interim agreement to halt the war and reopen the strait of Hormuz, reported Bloomberg. Oil prices have fallen, as the “long-awaited deal” began the process of “eas[ing]” the global energy crisis triggered by the conflict, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press noted that high fuel prices will “likely outlast the Iran war”.
‘OIL GLUT’: The Financial Times reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a “glut of oil” emerging next year, if the peace deal holds. The IEA said this would allow countries to build new strategic reserves, as they “review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”, according to Reuters.
‘NEW ERA’: Agence France-Presse reported that oil and gas companies have “few illusions about a return to normal for the Gulf energy industry after more than three months of blockage”. One analyst told the newswire that the war “showed the oil and gas industry that Hormuz risk is no longer just a geopolitical headline”.
Around the world
- OCEAN MONITOR: The Trump administration is “abandoning its plan” to dismantle a $368m ocean monitoring system key for tracking climate change after a “bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill”, reported the New York Times.
- CORAL HAVEN: The New York Times covered preliminary research, presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Kenya, suggesting there could be three times as many “coral refugia” – where corals are relatively safe from climate change – than previously thought.
- BAD CREDIT: Down to Earth reported that the first carbon credits issued under the Paris Agreement’s new Article 6.4 mechanism are “facing scrutiny over alleged links to institutions controlled by Myanmar’s military junta”.
- OIL BACKTRACK: Reuters reported that oil-and-gas company Equinor has dropped a renewable-energy target and scaled back clean investments, while another Reuters story noted that Shell is selling off its offshore wind assets.
1.1 billion
The number of children facing “at least three overlapping climate hazards”, according to a new Unicef report covered by Agence France-Presse.
Latest climate research
- Including the “permafrost carbon-climate feedback” in climate models increases the chance of exceeding “tipping elements” – such as the Greenland ice sheets, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or Amazon rainforest – by up to 50% | Environmental Research Letters
- The intensity of influenza outbreaks could decline in temperate regions, but increase in tropical areas over the next century, as the climate warms | PNAS Nexus
- European snow cover has declined by 20% for December and January since the start of the industrial era, revealing an “unprecedented ongoing shrinkage of European winters” | Communications Earth & Environment
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The more than 2m battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 1m “plug-in” hybrids (PHEVs) and 100,000 electric vans on UK roads are already saving drivers a total of around £3bn a year, according to new Carbon Brief analysis. This amounts to savings of more than £1,100 a year in fuel costs for each BEV driver in the UK. The analysis comes amid reports in UK media this week that the government is considering “watering down” its EV sales targets.
Spotlight
Oceans rising at UN climate talks
The state of the world’s oceans is inextricably linked to the changing climate – and many delegates at UN climate talks want to see more focus on this issue, reports Carbon Brief.
Oceans are often described as the world’s “greatest ally” against climate change – absorbing 30% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and most of the heat generated by those emissions.
They are also the site of important climate solutions, such as huge offshore windfarms and the shipping industry’s transition to cleaner fuels.
At the same time, the oceans themselves present a growing danger to coastal communities and sea life due to sea level rise, marine heatwaves and ocean acidification.
These diverse issues have led to growing calls within the UN climate process for more focus on oceans. During climate negotiations this week in Bonn – known as SB64 – nations and civil society had a chance to air these views during an “ocean and climate change dialogue”.
‘Elevate action’
Oceans first entered UN climate outcomes in 2019, when the final COP25 negotiated text requested a new “dialogue” on “the ocean and climate change to consider how to strengthen mitigation and adaptation action”.
The following years saw this dialogue established as an annual event. However, the political weight of these discussions has been limited.
COP31 is being co-led by Turkey and Australia, but with Pacific islands playing a supporting role. These small islands sometimes self-identify as “large ocean states”, stressing the ocean’s centrality in their societies.
In Bonn, figures from across the presidency threw their weight behind this issue. Chris Bowen, an Australian minister and incoming COP31 “president of negotiations”, told attendees:
“Australia, Turkey and the Pacific see an important opportunity to elevate ocean-based climate action.”
Strategies and finance
The two-day dialogue in Bonn involved a series of panels, statements and breakout groups.
One of the main topics was how oceans are integrated into national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
Three-quarters of the latest round of NDCs mention oceans, with conservation of “blue carbon” ecosystems the most frequently described action. (Landscapes such as mangroves can both absorb CO2 and protect coastal areas.)
Delegates also discussed alignment with the UN biodiversity process, as well as ocean finance, which currently makes up less than 1% of all climate finance.
(As discussions were taking place in Bonn, country officials also gathered in Mombasa, Kenya for the 11th Our Ocean Conference. Carbon Brief’s associate editor Giuliana Viglione attended the conference and will publish a full summary shortly.)
Developing countries were clear that many of the ocean-related actions in their NDCs would depend on receiving more financial support.
‘Political momentum’
With the backing of the COP31 presidency, delegates were hopeful about where this year’s dialogue could lead.
Charles Hamilton, an advisor for the Bahamas who spoke for the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in the dialogue, told Carbon Brief that island representatives “are not traveling thousands of miles to just talk and pat ourselves on the back”. He added:
“A dialogue that just remains a dialogue is just more talk – no action.”
Given that, he said “discussions in the dialogue must move into COP decisions and the decisions must be actioned”, noting the importance of finance.
Marina Corrêa, oceans lead at WWF-Brazil, pointed to an upcoming UN climate change Standing Committee on Finance forum as a space to ramp up pressure on ocean finance.
More broadly, she wanted to see the presidencies translate their support into a “leader-level ocean initiative” that could “mainstream” oceans across negotiations.
“We have a really interesting opportunity, in terms of political momentum,” Corrêa told Carbon Brief.
Watch, read, listen
‘HOTTER THAN HELL’: An episode of the BBC’s Rare Earth podcast titled “hotter than hell” considered the issue of extreme heat, with input from experts and “people facing up to the hottest temperatures on the planet”.
NOT BROKEN?: John Drake, a professor of ecology at the University of Georgia, wrote an essay for Aeon – also re-published as a Guardian “long read” – questioning the framing of ecosystems and climate systems “breaking down”.
ON COURSE: On his Volts podcast, US climate journalist David Roberts interviewed UK climate minister Katie White, quizzing her about whether the UK will “stay the course with its climate plans”.
Coming up
- 20-28 June: London climate action week
- 21 June: Colombia presidential runoff
- 24 June: UK Climate Change Committee progress in reducing emissions 2026 report to parliament
Pick of the jobs
- Mongabay, managing editor – Africa | Salary: Unknown. Location: Global
- Contexte, environment reporter – Brussels | Salary: €45,000-€60,000. Location: Brussels
- Climate 200, communications director | Salary: Unknown. Location: Australia
- Energy Tracker Asia, energy transition correspondent | Salary: $3,000-$4,000 per month. Location: South-east Asia (remote)
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
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The post DeBriefed 19 June 2026: Bonn talks end in ‘gridlock’ | Energy’s ‘new era’ | Oceans in climate negotiations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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