The UK’s new Labour government must urgently reinstate the net-zero plans shelved by its predecessor in order to “limit the damage” caused by Conservative policy rollbacks, according to official advisors at the Climate Change Committee (CCC).
In its latest annual progress report, the CCC issues some frank words about the “confusing and inconsistent” behaviour of the previous government.
The Conservatives only brought in “credible” policies to cover one-third of the emissions cuts required to hit the UK’s 2030 climate target, the committee finds.
Despite being “insufficient”, the CCC notes that this is a slight improvement on last year. Since then, a requirement for carmakers to sell electric models and a deal to help decarbonise heavy industry both boosted the credibility of the UK’s climate strategy, it says.
Nevertheless, the committee criticises former prime minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to roll back key net-zero policies, notably delaying bans on the sale of new gas boilers and non-electric cars. It says that, contrary to his claims, there was “no evidence” the delays would save people money.
The committee points to a general need to scale up emissions cuts across the economy. It says almost none of the UK government efforts to scale up low-carbon technologies or invest in nature-based solutions are on track.
With this in mind, the progress report lays out a selection of “priority” actions that the new Labour government should take to “make up lost ground” so the UK can achieve its climate goals.
- New government
- Policy gap
- Road transport
- Buildings
- Industry
- Fossil fuels and hydrogen
- Electricity
- Agriculture and land use
- Aviation and shipping
- CO2 removal
- Waste and F-gases
- Adaptation
New government
A lot has changed in UK climate politics since the CCC’s last annual progress report was published in June 2023.
Earlier this month, Labour won a landslide election victory ending 14 years of Conservative rule. The party triumphed with a manifesto full of climate-related policies, including a pledge to decarbonise the nation’s electricity supplies by 2030.
Under the Conservatives, the CCC had issued a series of progress reports in which it warned, again and again, that the UK was not on track to meet its future climate goals.
Rather than heeding these warnings, the government led by Sunak announced a rollback of net-zero policies last September, citing “unacceptable costs” for British people. This included delaying the phaseout of both gas boilers and petrol and diesel cars.
The CCC’s latest report acknowledges some positive progress made under Sunak’s leadership. However, it is also quite critical of the outgoing Conservative government, which it says “undermined” the government’s own climate efforts with “confusing and inconsistent messaging and actions”. The report states:
“[The previous government] claimed to be acting in the long-term interests of the country, but there was no evidence backing the claim that dialling back ambition would reduce costs to citizens.”
The new report was prepared before the election, but it says the new government must “act fast to hit the country’s commitments”. It highlights the reinstatement of the weakened net-zero policies as a priority, noting that “damage can be limited”, if the government does so “quickly”.
Interim CCC chair Prof Piers Forster told journalists in a briefing that the new Labour government, which has hired former CCC chief executive Chris Stark to lead its clean power by 2030 “Mission Control”, has already made some progress. He said:
“They’ve done some quite good things in their first 10 days…They have concentrated their announcements on decarbonising energy.”
However, to achieve the UK’s broader climate goals, he added that the new government would “have to go much wider than energy”, with efforts to cut emissions “right across the economy”.
In the coming months, the Labour government must produce a new net-zero strategy, following a second successful legal challenge, which concluded that the existing UK plan was not credible.
It is also obliged to produce a new international climate pledge (nationally determined contribution, NDC) under the Paris Agreement, laying out the UK’s ambition for cutting emissions out to 2035.
The government will also have to legislate in 2025 for the seventh carbon budget, covering 2038-2042, following advice from the CCC due early next year. The CCC describes the seventh carbon budget period as a “stepping stone” on the path to net-zero by 2050.
(See Carbon Brief’s “Interactive: Labour government’s in-tray for climate change, energy and nature”.)
Policy gap
UK greenhouse gas emissions have been falling steadily for years, largely driven by the phaseout of coal and the growth of renewable power. Last year was no exception, the CCC says – confirming Carbon Brief analysis published in March.
The nation’s emissions dropped by 5.4% from 415m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2022 to 393MtCO2e in 2023, excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping.
This marked an increase in the rate of emissions cuts, resulting predominantly from a fall in gas demand that “may in part reflect continuing high gas prices”, as well as a return to normal levels of imports of clean electricity from overseas.
The UK also comfortably achieved its third carbon budget, which ran for the period 2018 to 2022, the CCC confirms. It notes that, rather than due to deliberate climate policy, this can partly be attributed to the UK’s “lower-than-expected GDP”, which, in turn, is linked to the economic impact of Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, for years the CCC has been warning of a looming gap between the government’s net-zero policies and its future emissions targets.
Only one third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the UK’s 2030 NDC goal under the Paris Agreement of cutting emissions 68% by 2030 are covered by plans the CCC deems “credible”.
There is an even larger credibility gap on the sixth carbon budget for 2033-2037, with only a quarter of the cuts needed covered by “credible” policies.
The chart below shows the distance between these credible policies (dark blue) and the “delivery pathway” that the government has set out for achieving its net-zero target (red).
Policies with “some” (light blue) or “significant” risk (purple) close part of the gap to getting on track, but around one fifth of the emissions cuts needed are either covered by plans that are “completely insufficient” or have no plans in place at all.
The CCC notes a “slight improvement” in credible policies, which only covered a quarter of the 2030 emissions cuts last year. This is due primarily to the introduction of the zero-emission vehicle mandate and a deal for the electrification of heavy industry.
This is illustrated in the figure below, which shows the change in expected emissions in 2030 based only on “credible” policies. The dots on the left show what the CCC expected in its 2023 progress report, while those on the right show its latest estimates.
While the committee now expects emissions from road transport and industry to be slightly lower, the outlook for some sectors – notably buildings – has worsened following the Conservatives’ rollback of net-zero policies.
One of the ways in which the committee monitors government progress towards net-zero is with 28 “key indicators”. Of the 22 that have a fixed benchmark or target, only five are currently on track, including a reduction in distances driven by cars and a drop in battery prices.
None of the CCC’s 12 indicators for the uptake of low-carbon technologies and nature-based solutions are classed as “on track”, except for the expansion of public electric vehicle charging stations.
The CCC also set out 27 specific “priority recommendations” in last year’s progress report for the previous government to implement.
It says only two of these recommendations have seen “good progress” over the past year and 12 have seen no progress at all. Nine of the priorities where no progress was seen were the responsibility of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), which oversees most of the policies in question.
Progress was also “too slow” in the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the CCC notes, with limited headway on their priority recommendations.
While there are “almost” enough credible policies in place to achieve the upcoming fourth carbon budget, between 2023 and 2027, the CCC warns that this should not lead to complacency.
Both the fourth and fifth budgets are relatively unambitious because they were set before the UK had a net-zero target, when the goal was an 80% cut in emissions by 2050. Both must be overachieved in order to remain on a “sensible path” to net-zero, it says.
The emissions drop in 2023 of 22.3MtCO2e was much higher than the average annual emissions cut seen in the seven years prior to this, which was 13.8 MtCO2e each year. The CCC notes that “a similar pace of reduction will need to be maintained throughout the rest of the decade” in order to meet future climate targets.
However, while emissions cuts to date have been dominated by the electricity system, other sectors will need to start contributing in the coming years.
As the chart below shows, three quarters of the emissions cuts over the next three carbon budgets are expected to come from transport, buildings and other sectors.
The CCC sets out various “priority actions” across the report in order to “make up lost ground” and get the UK back on track for its climate targets.
These include sector-specific targets, described in the sections below. They also include broader goals, such as making planning policy consistent with net-zero, publishing a just transition plan for workers and improving public engagement on low-carbon choices.
Road transport
Despite an increase in the miles driven on UK roads last year, emissions from cars and other road transport fell by 0.9%, according to the progress report.
The CCC says this marks the “first time that the uptake of electric vehicles has had a meaningful impact on the direction of emissions trends”. At least one million UK cars – 2.8% of the total fleet – are now electric.
In addition, the CCC notes that the number of miles being driven in cars remains roughly 6% below pre-Covid levels, indicating a persistent shift in travel patterns following the pandemic. (This is not the case for vans, which are being driven 11% more miles than before.)
Yet transport remains the largest source of emissions in the UK economy. The CCC stresses that emissions from cars, vans and trucks will have to drop four times faster than the 2023 rate each year this decade, in order to meet the country’s climate targets.
The report recommends various policies to achieve this. It welcomes the zero-emission vehicle mandate – which sets targets for car manufacturers to sell a certain share of electric models – as one of the few recent successes of the previous government.
However, it says that electric cars’ market share did not grow in 2023, after years of having exceeded the CCC’s expectations. It also notes that electric van sales have been stalling.
With this in mind, the CCC’s “priorities” for the Labour government includes a reinstatement of the 2030 phaseout date for petrol and diesel cars, after Sunak’s government delayed this to 2035. (Labour pledged to do so in its election manifesto.)
It also says ministers should remove planning barriers for electric vehicle chargers and develop new policies to promote electric van uptake.
The report welcomes the rapid drop in electric-vehicle battery prices, which have fallen far ahead of the CCC’s expectations, as the chart below shows. Their continued decline will play a “key role” in making these vehicles “more cost-effective”, it says.
Finally, the CCC recommends that the UK and devolved governments should publish various plans to guide local authorities in setting out local transport strategies, promote charging infrastructure and reduce the use of cars.
Buildings
In 2023, emissions from buildings fell by 7.2% due to reduced demand for gas. This continued a trend seen in 2022, which was driven in part by mild winter months and high fuel prices leading to behavioural change, such as people using their heating less.
However between 2015 and 2022, the average reduction in emissions in the buildings sector was below the pace needed for the rest of the decade to reach 2030 targets, the CCC says.
The reductions over the last two years were also not driven by sustained programmes to scale up low-carbon technologies, such as heat pumps, which the CCC says will be needed for “deeper decarbonisation of the economy”.
As such, progress must now be sped up, enabled by programmes of support to roll-out key technologies over the next seven years, the CCC says.
In 2023, the number of heat pumps installed only increased by 4% compared to the previous year, up from 58,000 to 60,000.
This indicator is “significantly off track” from the rate the CCC says is required. Installation rates in residential buildings will need to increase tenfold from 2023 levels by 2028 to meet the government’s 600,000 a year target.
However, the committee says there have been some “promising signs” in the first few months of 2024.
Applications under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme – which provides financial support for switching from a gas boiler to a heat pump – rose 62% in the first four months of the year compared to the same period in 2023. This follows a decision by the Conservative government to increase the grants available under the scheme from £5,000 to £7,500.
Meanwhile, measures to improve the energy efficiency of buildings are “moving in the wrong direction”. Rates of home insulation fell in 2023, having already been “significantly off track” in 2022, the CCC states.
Overall, the CCC’s assessment of policies to decarbonise buildings for the 2030 NDC has worsened over the last year. It points to the Conservative government’s decision to delay the phaseout of fossil-fuelled boilers, abandon plans to enforce energy efficiency improvements in rental properties and push back the introduction of the “clean heat market mechanism”.
The committee recommends reversing recent policy rollbacks as a priority. It also says the government should introduce a comprehensive programme to decarbonise public sector buildings, remove planning barriers for heat pumps and make electricity cheaper to support the electrification of home heating. (See: Electricity.)
Broadly, one of the priorities set out by the CCC is rolling out heat pumps faster, supported by strong and credible signals that policies such as the Boiler Upgrade Scheme will continue to be fully funded.
Additionally, the committee says the government should “narrow the scope” of the strategic decision on hydrogen for heat, ahead of its current deadline in 2026. The government has been set to make a decision on what the role of hydrogen will be within the heating system in Britain, however, multiple pilot schemes have now closed bringing the role of the technology into question. Ahead of this decision, the CCC suggests “prohibiting connections to the gas grid for new buildings from 2025”.
Industry
Emissions from industry fell by 8.1% in 2023. These reductions were largely the result of site closures in the chemicals sector, with high gas prices potentially a contributing factor, the CCC says. There was also a reduction in emissions in the iron and steel sector.
As with buildings, the sector’s annual emissions reductions over the previous seven years were not at a sufficient pace to achieve the UK’s 2030 climate target, the report says.
Moreover, last year’s fall was not the result of sustained decarbonisation action. The CCC says emissions cuts will need to speed up, supported not by factory closures but by the rollout of low-carbon technologies.
Between 2008 and 2022, direct industrial and fuel supply emissions fell from 140.8MtCO2e to 87.1MtCO2e, as shown in the chart below. This was “considerably faster” than the CCC expected in its 2008 advice.
This was mostly due to a fall in emissions-intensive industries’ outputs, in particular for steel and chemicals. The overall demand for steel saw a “big drop” from 2008 to 2009, and the sector has shrunk due to a lack of competitiveness internationally.
Additionally the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) contributed significantly to abatement by encouraging further emissions reductions, the CCC notes.
The share of industrial energy use that comes from electricity has stayed relatively consistent, at 26%, since 2020. However, the CCC expects this to increase, as various industries electrify their processes to reduce emissions. As an indicator therefore, industrial electrification is off track, the report adds.
Risks to the decarbonisation of industry include British Steel’s plan to replace its blast furnace in Scunthorpe with two electric arc furnaces (EAF), which is dependent on as-yet unapproved government support.
The CCC notes that the previous government’s £500m deal with Tata Steel to shift production at its Port Talbot site to EAFs has lowered the risk of industry missing its decarbonisation targets.
However, this transition will mean up to 2,800 job losses. The CCC notes that it has “long been clear that the site would need to adapt to remain competitive, for economic reasons largely unrelated to decarbonisation, yet successive governments have failed to develop a long-term economic strategy to develop alternative high-quality employment in the area”.
It further advises that the government should be more proactive and ambitious when it comes to engaging with communities affected by the transition to net-zero. Not doing so risks long-term harm to communities, which could undermine support for net-zero.
The CCC says there has been progress with tightening the cap under the UK’s emissions trading system (UK ETS), which includes industry. However, it notes that the cap is still far looser than in the “central” trajectory in the government’s net-zero strategy. This means that other parts of the economy will need to cut emissions more quickly in order to keep the UK on track overall.
The new UK ETS cap is expected to lead to higher production costs, the CCC notes. While some industries will be protected if the government introduces a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in 2027 as planned, this “could lead to offshoring in the absence of further supporting policy to develop alternative low-carbon options”, the report notes..
It says priorities for the new Labour government to tackle industry emissions therefore include strengthening the UK ETS to ensure that its price is sufficient to drive decarbonisation and implementing a CBAM effectively to protect against offshoring.
It also says the government should act to make electricity cheaper, develop policies to address barriers to industrial electrification and implement resource efficiency plans.
Fossil fuels and hydrogen
The CCC also weighs in on the question of whether the UK should continue to exploit its domestic fossil fuel resources, including those in the North Sea.
Specifically, it says that UK policy should be aligned with the COP28 deal on “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, as well as the guiding principle for international climate action of “common but differentiated responsibilities”. It says:
“As a developed country with a binding commitment to transition to net-zero, the UK should reassess whether further exploration for new sources of fossil fuels is aligned to the UNFCCC principle of common but differentiated responsibility and the global stocktake.”
The outgoing Conservative government had argued that domestic fossil fuels bolstered energy security, attempting to make this into a “wedge issue” with the now-ruling Labour Party, which ran on a pledge to end new licensing for North Sea oil and gas extraction.
To drive this point home, the Conservatives had introduced an offshore petroleum licensing bill that would have required the North Sea Transition Authority to run annual licensing rounds for new exploration. (The Conservatives failed to pass the bill before the election.)
In contrast, the CCC report notes that one of the key reasons why UK energy bills have remained so high during and after the global energy crisis is due to the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. This dependence will be reduced in the shift to net-zero, it notes.
The shift to domestic renewables will also bolster energy security, the CCC says:
“British-based renewable energy is the cheapest and fastest way to reduce vulnerability to volatile global fossil fuel markets. The faster we get off fossil fuels, the more secure we become.”
One “welcome” point of progress has been that in February 2024, the UK formally withdrew from the controversial Energy Charter Treaty, which provides protection to companies investing in fossil fuel developments, the CCC notes.
Beyond fossil fuels, the UK government has continued to target a strategic role for hydrogen. It published a hydrogen production delivery roadmap, a transport and storage networks pathway, and a business model for the first hydrogen allocation round in December 2023.
As a priority, the government should also publish a “strategic spatial energy plan” and identify low-regret infrastructure investments, including for hydrogen infrastructure that can proceed now, the committee says.
Electricity
Emissions from the electricity system fell by 22.2% in 2023. This large drop reflects falling gas generation as part of the longer-term rise of renewables, combined with a return to the UK’s normal status as a net electricity importer.
Electricity generation is the only sector to have sustained emissions cuts in line with the 2030 target over multiple years, the CCC notes.
With electrification of the economy a key enabler for wider emissions cuts, one of the CCC’s priority actions for the remainder of 2024 is for the government to make electricity cheaper, by removing policy costs from electricity bills.
This would support industrial electrification, the uptake of electric cars and ensure lower running costs of heat pumps compared to fossil fuel boilers, it says.
Electricity decarbonisation to date has been aided by massive cost reductions for technologies including wind and solar power, the CCC says. It adds that lower costs lay the groundwork for continued rapid uptake of low-carbon technologies.
Indeed, it says that renewable energy will need to be built even faster than it has been to date. Annual installation of offshore wind will need to more than treble, onshore wind more than double and solar increase five-fold between 2023 and 2035.
For example, the UK had 15 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind at the end of 2023 and will need to add more than 5GW every year to reach 50GW by 2030. This is more than three times the rate added over the past three years.
The technology hit a stalling point in 2023, when no offshore wind was contracted in the contracts for difference (CfD) scheme due to failure to respond to supply chain cost increases.
The CCC says it has “some confidence” that contracts coming through under the CfD scheme will lead to capacity increases, “but these are not enough and significant additional capacity beyond this will be required”.
The CCC “welcomes” updates to the next CfD auction, including the 66% increase in the maximum price for offshore wind and an increase in the notional “budget” that includes £800m for the technology
Onshore wind capacity in 2023 was 15GW, however only 0.5GW of new capacity was installed last year. This was considerably below the peak of 1.8GW in 2017.
Total solar capacity was 16GW in 2023. For the UK to achieve the previous government’s ambition of hitting 70GW of capacity by 2035, more than 4GW would need to be installed each year, the CCC notes – more than five times the average amount added over the past three years.
Within its first week, the new Labour government has moved to make the development of renewables easier, including removing the de facto ban on onshore wind in England and approving three major solar farms.
Other key areas of development have been “positive steps” made by the previous government around whole-system strategic planning of the future energy system, the report says.
The CCC calls for rapid decisions to be made following the second consultation on the “review of electricity market arrangements”, which was published in March,.
The government should publish a strategy for the full decarbonisation of electricity by 2035 at the latest, the CCC recommends. (The report was prepared prior to the election. The new Labour government is targeting clean power by 2030.)
This strategy should cover the strategic and policy requirements, milestones and timeline for delivery, as well as contingencies addressing key risks, the CCC suggests.
Additionally, the government should ensure electricity network capacity is growing to meet requirements. This should include fully implementing the “connections action plan” and “transmission acceleration action plan” at pace.
Agriculture and land use
Agriculture and land use are the source of some major gaps in the previous government’s net-zero plans, the CCC states.
Emissions from agriculture have remained virtually unchanged for nearly two decades. Planting trees and restoring peatland could absorb some of the emissions from high-emitting sectors, but efforts to expand these activities have faltered.
The UK has committed to cut its methane emissions 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. In order to do this, the pace of reductions compared to recent years would need to double over this decade.
Cattle and sheep produce around half of the UK’s methane emissions. Given the slow rate of change over recent years, the rate of methane cuts from agriculture would need to increase roughly eightfold in order to meet the UK’s methane target by 2030.
The CCC notes that livestock numbers fell between 2017 and 2020, but since then the trend has remained flat. It notes that there has been a small amount of progress in the promotion of methane-suppressing feed products for livestock.
The committee also points out that the Welsh government has paused its plans to reduce emissions from farming “following substantial resistance”. It warns that any delay to its sustainable farming scheme “could have significant impacts”.
The report says both the UK government and devolved governments should prioritise funding and support to ensure the UK-wide tree planting target of 30,000 hectares per year by the 2024-25 period is met.
It also says there should be a “delivery mechanism” for peatland restoration, which is supposed to reach 32,000 hectares per year by 2026, but is not on track to do so. (The CCC notes that even this target is “significantly less ambitious” than its own recommendation.)
The final priority highlighted for the sector by the CCC is the publication of the long-awaited land-use framework. This plan has been repeatedly delayed, and could help to align the sector with other issues such as using land to build energy infrastructure or adapt to climate change.
Aviation and shipping
Aviation was the only sector that saw a substantial leap in emissions in 2023. They rose by 15.5% as demand “continued to rebound from the pandemic”, and the CCC says there is “a risk” that demand for flights may rise higher than pre-Covid levels next year.
The government’s pathway to net-zero allows for some growth in both aviation and shipping emissions out to 2030. (While domestic journeys are included, international aviation and shipping are not part of the 2030 NDC target. However, they will feature in the UK’s carbon budgets from the sixth period onwards.)
The CCC says more detail of policies for curbing aviation emissions was provided last year – specifically the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate. However, it says “delivery concerns” mean this sector continues to “attract some risks”.
It notes that the SAF targets the previous government set were “ambitious”, but cautions that the volume of SAFs available to meet this target is “highly uncertain”.
The CCC has frequently highlighted the need to manage demand for flights as well as implementing technological solutions to decarbonise travel. As recent Carbon Brief analysis demonstrates, any emissions cuts from the SAF mandate in the coming years will be entirely wiped out by the expected rise in demand for flights.
In the new report, the committee says a priority for the Labour government should be pausing any new airport expansions until there is a UK-wide “capacity management framework” in place.
This would assess aviation emissions and ensure there is no overall expansion “unless the carbon intensity of aviation is outperforming the government’s emissions reduction pathway”.
Shipping, which accounts for one of the smallest shares of annual emissions, is not highlighted as a priority area for the new government.
CO2 removal
The CCC says the previous Conservative government’s plans to develop technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere are “behind schedule”.
This makes the ambition to remove at least 5MtCO2 per year by 2030 – which is required to meet the UK’s NDC target under current plans – “increasingly challenging”, according to the committee.
Moreover, despite the publication of some business models for the sector, all of the government’s plans carry “significant risk”, the CCC warns. This is notable, as the removals sector is expected to contribute 11% of emissions cuts by the end of the sixth carbon budget in 2037.
The key priority the report highlights for the new Labour government is finalising business models for engineered CO2 removals and “opening these to the market to enable projects to get underway”.
A related piece of advice highlighted by the CCC is that the government should publish guidance for businesses on how to use carbon offsets. It says firms should only use them to claim “net-zero” once nearly all their emissions are cut, and “the remaining emissions are neutralised by high-quality permanent removals”.
Waste and F-gases
The CCC says there has been “very little progress” in cutting waste emissions. It highlights insufficient progress in capturing methane from landfills, recycling and composting.
Waste is largely a devolved issue and the CCC makes recommendations to the governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland accordingly.
The key priority that the report highlights for the new Labour government for this sector is the need to address rising emissions from waste-to-energy facilities, which have “substantially increased”. It calls for a “moratorium” on new plants until there is a government review of capacity needs and how these facilities align with climate plans.
Fluorinated gases (F-gases), which make up a tiny fraction of UK emission, are subject to steadily declining quotas for importers and producers of the devices that emit them. They are not targeted as a priority in the new report.
Adaptation
The previous Conservative government published its third National Adaptation Plan (NAP3) in 2023, covering the period out to 2028. This is the nation’s statutory plan to ensure the UK is prepared for a warmer world.
It has faced intense criticism from the CCC, and campaigners have taken the government to court, citing the plan’s failure to adequately protect people from climate change.
In its new report, the CCC says NAP3 “lacks the pace and ambition to address growing climate risks which we are already experiencing”. It says the plan needs “clear objectives and targets”, and this should include stronger links with the next spending review.
The report also says the government should reorganise so that adaptation “becomes a fundamental aspect and is embedded in other national policy objectives” across departments. This includes prioritising it in other national priorities, including nature restoration, infrastructure development, economic growth and health.
The post CCC: Labour must ‘make up lost ground’ to hit UK climate goals appeared first on Carbon Brief.
CCC: Labour must ‘make up lost ground’ to hit UK climate goals
Greenhouse Gases
Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate
We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Food inflation on the rise
DELUGE STRIKES FOOD: Extreme rainfall and flooding across the Mediterranean and north Africa has “battered the winter growing regions that feed Europe…threatening food price rises”, reported the Financial Times. Western France has “endured more than 36 days of continuous rain”, while farmers’ associations in Spain’s Andalusia estimate that “20% of all production has been lost”, it added. Policy expert David Barmes told the paper that the “latest storms were part of a wider pattern of climate shocks feeding into food price inflation”.
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NO BEEF: The UK’s beef farmers, meanwhile, “face a double blow” from climate change as “relentless rain forces them to keep cows indoors”, while last summer’s drought hit hay supplies, said another Financial Times article. At the same time, indoor growers in south England described a 60% increase in electricity standing charges as a “ticking timebomb” that could “force them to raise their prices or stop production, which will further fuel food price inflation”, wrote the Guardian.
‘TINDERBOX’ AND TARIFFS: A study, covered by the Guardian, warned that major extreme weather and other “shocks” could “spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK”. Experts cited “chronic” vulnerabilities, including climate change, low incomes, poor farming policy and “fragile” supply chains that have made the UK’s food system a “tinderbox”. A New York Times explainer noted that while trade could once guard against food supply shocks, barriers such as tariffs and export controls – which are being “increasingly” used by politicians – “can shut off that safety valve”.
El Niño looms
NEW ENSO INDEX: Researchers have developed a new index for calculating El Niño, the large-scale climate pattern that influences global weather and causes “billions in damages by bringing floods to some regions and drought to others”, reported CNN. It added that climate change is making it more difficult for scientists to observe El Niño patterns by warming up the entire ocean. The outlet said that with the new metric, “scientists can now see it earlier and our long-range weather forecasts will be improved for it.”
WARMING WARNING: Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 60% chance of the current La Niña conditions shifting towards a neutral state over the next few months, with an El Niño likely to follow in late spring, according to Reuters. The Vibes, a Malaysian news outlet, quoted a climate scientist saying: “If the El Niño does materialise, it could possibly push 2026 or 2027 as the warmest year on record, replacing 2024.”
CROP IMPACTS: Reuters noted that neutral conditions lead to “more stable weather and potentially better crop yields”. However, the newswire added, an El Niño state would mean “worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season” to Australia. El Niño also “typically brings a poor south-west monsoon to India, including droughts”, reported the Hindu’s Business Line. A 2024 guest post for Carbon Brief explained that El Niño is linked to crop failure in south-eastern Africa and south-east Asia.
News and views
- DAM-AG-ES: Several South Korean farmers filed a lawsuit against the country’s state-owned utility company, “seek[ing] financial compensation for climate-related agricultural damages”, reported United Press International. Meanwhile, a national climate change assessment for the Philippines found that the country “lost up to $219bn in agricultural damages from typhoons, floods and droughts” over 2000-10, according to Eco-Business.
- SCORCHED GRASS: South Africa’s Western Cape province is experiencing “one of the worst droughts in living memory”, which is “scorching grass and killing livestock”, said Reuters. The newswire wrote: “In 2015, a drought almost dried up the taps in the city; farmers say this one has been even more brutal than a decade ago.”
- NOUVELLE VEG: New guidelines published under France’s national food, nutrition and climate strategy “urged” citizens to “limit” their meat consumption, reported Euronews. The delayed strategy comes a month after the US government “upended decades of recommendations by touting consumption of red meat and full-fat dairy”, it noted.
- COURTING DISASTER: India’s top green court accepted the findings of a committee that “found no flaws” in greenlighting the Great Nicobar project that “will lead to the felling of a million trees” and translocating corals, reported Mongabay. The court found “no good ground to interfere”, despite “threats to a globally unique biodiversity hotspot” and Indigenous tribes at risk of displacement by the project, wrote Frontline.
- FISH FALLING: A new study found that fish biomass is “falling by 7.2% from as little as 0.1C of warming per decade”, noted the Guardian. While experts also pointed to the role of overfishing in marine life loss, marine ecologist and study lead author Dr Shahar Chaikin told the outlet: “Our research proves exactly what that biological cost [of warming] looks like underwater.”
- TOO HOT FOR COFFEE: According to new analysis by Climate Central, countries where coffee beans are grown “are becoming too hot to cultivate them”, reported the Guardian. The world’s top five coffee-growing countries faced “57 additional days of coffee-harming heat” annually because of climate change, it added.
Spotlight
Nature talks inch forward
This week, Carbon Brief covers the latest round of negotiations under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which occurred in Rome over 16-19 February.
The penultimate set of biodiversity negotiations before October’s Conference of the Parties ended in Rome last week, leaving plenty of unfinished business.
The CBD’s subsidiary body on implementation (SBI) met in the Italian capital for four days to discuss a range of issues, including biodiversity finance and reviewing progress towards the nature targets agreed under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF).
However, many of the major sticking points – particularly around finance – will have to wait until later this summer, leaving some observers worried about the capacity for delegates to get through a packed agenda at COP17.
The SBI, along with the subsidiary body on scientific, technical and technological advice (SBSTTA) will both meet in Nairobi, Kenya, later this summer for a final round of talks before COP17 kicks off in Yerevan, Armenia, on 19 October.
Money talks
Finance for nature has long been a sticking point at negotiations under the CBD.
Discussions on a new fund for biodiversity derailed biodiversity talks in Cali, Colombia, in autumn 2024, requiring resumed talks a few months later.
Despite this, finance was barely on the agenda at the SBI meetings in Rome. Delegates discussed three studies on the relationship between debt sustainability and implementation of nature plans, but the more substantive talks are set to take place at the next SBI meeting in Nairobi.
Several parties “highlighted concerns with the imbalance of work” on finance between these SBI talks and the next ones, reported Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB).
Lim Li Ching, senior researcher at Third World Network, noted that tensions around finance permeated every aspect of the talks. She told Carbon Brief:
“If you’re talking about the gender plan of action – if there’s little or no financial resources provided to actually put it into practice and implement it, then it’s [just] paper, right? Same with the reporting requirements and obligations.”
Monitoring and reporting
Closely linked to the issue of finance is the obligations of parties to report on their progress towards the goals and targets of the GBF.
Parties do so through the submission of national reports.
Several parties at the talks pointed to a lack of timely funding for driving delays in their reporting, according to ENB.
A note released by the CBD Secretariat in December said that no parties had submitted their national reports yet; by the time of the SBI meetings, only the EU had. It further noted that just 58 parties had submitted their national biodiversity plans, which were initially meant to be published by COP16, in October 2024.
Linda Krueger, director of biodiversity and infrastructure policy at the environmental not-for-profit Nature Conservancy, told Carbon Brief that despite the sparse submissions, parties are “very focused on the national report preparation”. She added:
“Everybody wants to be able to show that we’re on the path and that there still is a pathway to getting to 2030 that’s positive and largely in the right direction.”
Watch, read, listen
NET LOSS: Nigeria’s marine life is being “threatened” by “ghost gear” – nets and other fishing equipment discarded in the ocean – said Dialogue Earth.
COMEBACK CAUSALITY: A Vox long-read looked at whether Costa Rica’s “payments for ecosystem services” programme helped the country turn a corner on deforestation.
HOMEGROWN GOALS: A Straits Times podcast discussed whether import-dependent Singapore can afford to shelve its goal to produce 30% of its food locally by 2030.
‘RUSTING’ RIVERS: The Financial Times took a closer look at a “strange new force blighting the [Arctic] landscape”: rivers turning rust-orange due to global warming.
New science
- Lakes in the Congo Basin’s peatlands are releasing carbon that is thousands of years old | Nature Geoscience
- Natural non-forest ecosystems – such as grasslands and marshlands – were converted for agriculture at four times the rate of land with tree cover between 2005 and 2020 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Around one-quarter of global tree-cover loss over 2001-22 was driven by cropland expansion, pastures and forest plantations for commodity production | Nature Food
In the diary
- 2-6 March: UN Food and Agriculture Organization regional conference for Latin America and Caribbean | Brasília
- 5 March: Nepal general elections
- 9-20 March: First part of the thirty-first session of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) | Kingston, Jamaica
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz.
Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org
The post Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate
Rising temperatures across France since the mid-1970s is putting Tour de France competitors at “high risk”, according to new research.
The study, published in Scientific Reports, uses 50 years of climate data to calculate the potential heat stress that athletes have been exposed to across a dozen different locations during the world-famous cycling race.
The researchers find that both the severity and frequency of high-heat-stress events have increased across France over recent decades.
But, despite record-setting heatwaves in France, the heat-stress threshold for safe competition has rarely been breached in any particular city on the day the Tour passed through.
(This threshold was set out by cycling’s international governing body in 2024.)
However, the researchers add it is “only a question of time” until this occurs as average temperatures in France continue to rise.
The lead author of the study tells Carbon Brief that, while the race organisers have been fortunate to avoid major heat stress on race days so far, it will be “harder and harder to be lucky” as extreme heat becomes more common.
‘Iconic’
The Tour de France is one of the world’s most storied cycling races and the oldest of Europe’s three major multi-week cycling competitions, or Grand Tours.
Riders cover around 3,500 kilometres (km) of distance and gain up to nearly 55km of altitude over 21 stages, with only two or three rest days throughout the gruelling race.
The researchers selected the Tour de France because it is the “iconic bike race. It is the bike race of bike races,” says Dr Ivana Cvijanovic, a climate scientist at the French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, who led the new work.
Heat has become a growing problem for the competition in recent years.
In 2022, Alexis Vuillermoz, a French competitor, collapsed at the finish line of the Tour’s ninth stage, leaving in an ambulance and subsequently pulling out of the race entirely.
Two years later, British cyclist Sir Mark Cavendish vomited on his bike during the first stage of the race after struggling with the 36C heat.
The Tour also makes a good case study because it is almost entirely held during the month of July and, while the route itself changes, there are many cities and stages that are repeated from year to year, Cvijanovic adds.
‘Have to be lucky’
The study focuses on the 50-year span between 1974 and 2023.
The researchers select six locations across the country that have commonly hosted the Tour, from the mountain pass of Col du Tourmalet, in the French Pyrenees, to the city of Paris – where the race finishes, along the Champs-Élysées.
These sites represent a broad range of climatic zones: Alpe d’ Huez, Bourdeaux, Col du Tourmalet, Nîmes, Paris and Toulouse.
For each location, they use meteorological reanalysis data from ERA5 and radiant temperature data from ERA5-HEAT to calculate the “wet-bulb globe temperature” (WBGT) for multiple times of day across the month of July each year.
WBGT is a heat-stress index that takes into account temperature, humidity, wind speed and direct sunlight.
Although there is “no exact scientific consensus” on the best heat-stress index to use, WBGT is “one of the rare indicators that has been originally developed based on the actual human response to heat”, Cvijanovic explains.
It is also the one that the International Cycling Union (UCI) – the world governing body for sport cycling – uses to assess risk. A WBGT of 28C or higher is classified as “high risk” by the group.
WBGT is the “gold standard” for assessing heat stress, says Dr Jessica Murfree, director of the ACCESS Research Laboratory and assistant professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Murfree, who was not involved in the new study, adds that the researchers are “doing the right things by conducting their science in alignment with the business practices that are already happening”.
The researchers find that across the 50-year time period, WBGT has been increasing across the entire country – albeit, at different rates. In the north-west of the country, WBGT has increased at an average rate of 0.1C per decade, while in the southern and eastern parts of the country, it has increased by more than 0.5C per decade.
The maps below show the maximum July WBGT for each decade of the analysis (rows) and for hourly increments of the late afternoon (columns). Lower temperatures are shown in lighter greens and yellows, while higher temperatures are shown in darker reds and purples.
Six Tour de France locations analysed in the study are shown as triangles on the maps (clockwise from top): Paris, Alpe d’ Huez, Nîmes, Toulouse, Col du Tourmalet and Bordeaux.
The maps show that the maximum WBGT temperature in the afternoon has surpassed 28C over almost the entire country in the last decade. The notable exceptions to this are the mountainous regions of the Alps and the Pyrenees.
The researchers also find that most of the country has crossed the 28C WBGT threshold – which they describe as “dangerous heat levels” – on at least one July day over the past decade. However, by looking at the WBGT on the day the Tour passed through any of these six locations, they find that the threshold has rarely been breached during the race itself.
For example, the research notes that, since 1974, Paris has seen a WBGT of 28C five times at 3pm in July – but that these events have “so far” not coincided with the cycling race.
The study states that it is “fortunate” that the Tour has so far avoided the worst of the heat-stress.
Cvijanovic says the organisers and competitors have been “lucky” to date. She adds:
“It has worked really well for them so far. But as the frequency of these [extreme heat] events is increasing, it will be harder and harder to be lucky.”
Dr Madeleine Orr, an assistant professor of sport ecology at the University of Toronto who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the paper was “really well done”, noting that its “methods are good [and its] approach was sound”. She adds:
“[The Tour has] had athletes complain about [the heat]. They’ve had athletes collapse – and still those aren’t the worst conditions. I think that that says a lot about what we consider safe. They’ve still been lucky to not see what unsafe looks like, despite [the heat] having already had impacts.”
Heat safety protocols
In 2024, the UCI set out its first-ever high temperature protocol – a set of guidelines for race organisers to assess athletes’ risk of heat stress.
The assessment places the potential risk into one of five categories based on the WBGT, ranging from very low to high risk.
The protocol then sets out suggested actions to take in the event of extreme heat, ranging from having athletes complete their warm-ups using ice vests and cold towels to increasing the number of support vehicles providing water and ice.
If the WBGT climbs above the 28C mark, the protocol suggests that organisers modify the start time of the stage, adapt the course to remove particularly hazardous sections – or even cancel the race entirely.
However, Orr notes that many other parts of the race, such as spectator comfort and equipment functioning, may have lower temperatures thresholds that are not accounted for in the protocol, but should also be considered.
Murfree points out that the study’s findings – and the heat protocol itself – are “really focused on adaptation, rather than mitigation”. While this is “to be expected”, she tells Carbon Brief:
“Moving to earlier start times or adjusting the route specifically to avoid these locations that score higher in heat stress doesn’t stop the heat stress. These aren’t climate preventative measures. That, I think, would be a much more difficult conversation to have in the research because of the Tour de France’s intimate relationship with fossil-fuel companies.”
The post Dangerous heat for Tour de France riders only a ‘question of time’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Dangerous heat for Tour de France riders only a ‘question of time’
Greenhouse Gases
DeBriefed 20 February 2026: EU’s ‘3C’ warning | Endangerment repeal’s impact on US emissions | ‘Tree invasion’ fuelled South America’s fires
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Preparing for 3C
NEW ALERT: The EU’s climate advisory board urged countries to prepare for 3C of global warming, reported the Guardian. The outlet quoted Maarten van Aalst, a member of the advisory board, saying that adapting to this future is a “daunting task, but, at the same time, quite a doable task”. The board recommended the creation of “climate risk assessments and investments in protective measures”.
‘INSUFFICIENT’ ACTION: EFE Verde added that the advisory board said that the EU’s adaptation efforts were so far “insufficient, fragmented and reactive” and “belated”. Climate impacts are expected to weaken the bloc’s productivity, put pressure on public budgets and increase security risks, it added.
UNDERWATER: Meanwhile, France faced “unprecedented” flooding this week, reported Le Monde. The flooding has inundated houses, streets and fields and forced the evacuation of around 2,000 people, according to the outlet. The Guardian quoted Monique Barbut, minister for the ecological transition, saying: “People who follow climate issues have been warning us for a long time that events like this will happen more often…In fact, tomorrow has arrived.”
IEA ‘erases’ climate
MISSING PRIORITY: The US has “succeeded” in removing climate change from the main priorities of the International Energy Agency (IEA) during a “tense ministerial meeting” in Paris, reported Politico. It noted that climate change is not listed among the agency’s priorities in the “chair’s summary” released at the end of the two-day summit.
US INTERVENTION: Bloomberg said the meeting marked the first time in nine years the IEA failed to release a communique setting out a unified position on issues – opting instead for the chair’s summary. This came after US energy secretary Chris Wright gave the organisation a one-year deadline to “scrap its support of goals to reduce energy emissions to net-zero” – or risk losing the US as a member, according to Reuters.
Around the world
- ISLAND OBJECTION: The US is pressuring Vanuatu to withdraw a draft resolution supporting an International Court of Justice ruling on climate change, according to Al Jazeera.
- GREENLAND HEAT: The Associated Press reported that Greenland’s capital Nuuk had its hottest January since records began 109 years ago.
- CHINA PRIORITIES: China’s Energy Administration set out its five energy priorities for 2026-2030, including developing a renewable energy plan, said International Energy Net.
- AMAZON REPRIEVE: Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has continued to fall into early 2026, extending a downward trend, according to the latest satellite data covered by Mongabay.
- GEZANI DESTRUCTION: Reuters reported the aftermath of the Gezani cyclone, which ripped through Madagascar last week, leaving 59 dead and more than 16,000 displaced people.
20cm
The average rise in global sea levels since 1901, according to a Carbon Brief guest post on the challenges in projecting future rises.
Latest climate research
- Wildfire smoke poses negative impacts on organisms and ecosystems, such as health impacts on air-breathing animals, changes in forests’ carbon storage and coral mortality | Global Ecology and Conservation
- As climate change warms Antarctica throughout the century, the Weddell Sea could see the growth of species such as krill and fish and remain habitable for Emperor penguins | Nature Climate Change
- About 97% of South American lakes have recorded “significant warming” over the past four decades and are expected to experience rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves | Climatic Change
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Repealing the US’s landmark “endangerment finding”, along with actions that rely on that finding, will slow the pace of US emissions cuts, according to Rhodium Group visualised by Carbon Brief. US president Donald Trump last week formally repealed the scientific finding that underpins federal regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, although the move is likely to face legal challenges. Data from the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm, shows that US emissions will drop more slowly without climate regulations. However, even with climate regulations, emissions are expected to drop much slower under Trump than under the previous Joe Biden administration, according to the analysis.
Spotlight
How a ‘tree invasion’ helped to fuel South America’s fires
This week, Carbon Brief explores how the “invasion” of non-native tree species helped to fan the flames of forest fires in Argentina and Chile earlier this year.
Since early January, Chile and Argentina have faced large-scale and deadly wildfires, including in Patagonia, which spans both countries.
These fires have been described as “some of the most significant and damaging in the region”, according to a World Weather Attribution (WWA) analysis covered by Carbon Brief.
In both countries, the fires destroyed vast areas of native forests and grasslands, displacing thousands of people. In Chile, the fires resulted in 23 deaths.
Multiple drivers contributed to the spread of the fires, including extended periods of high temperatures, low rainfall and abundant dry vegetation.
The WWA analysis concluded that human-caused climate change made these weather conditions at least three times more likely.
According to the researchers, another contributing factor was the invasion of non-native trees in the regions where the fires occurred.
The risk of non-native forests
In Argentina, the wildfires began on 6 January and persisted until the first week of February. They hit the city of Puerto Patriada and the Los Alerces and Lago Puelo national parks, in the Chubut province, as well as nearby regions.
In these areas, more than 45,000 hectares of native forests – such as Patagonian alerce tree, myrtle, coigüe and ñire – along with scrubland and grasslands, were consumed by the flames, according to the WWA study.
In Chile, forest fires occurred from 17 to 19 January in the Biobío, Ñuble and Araucanía regions.
The fires destroyed more than 40,000 hectares of forest and more than 20,000 hectares of non-native forest plantations, including eucalyptus and Monterey pine.
Dr Javier Grosfeld, a researcher at Argentina’s National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET) in northern Patagonia, told Carbon Brief that these species, introduced to Patagonia for production purposes in the late 20th century, grow quickly and are highly flammable.
Because of this, their presence played a role in helping the fires to spread more quickly and grow larger.
However, that is no reason to “demonise” them, he stressed.
Forest management
For Grosfeld, the problem in northern Patagonia, Argentina, is a significant deficit in the management of forests and forest plantations.
This management should include pruning branches from their base and controlling the spread of non-native species, he added.
A similar situation is happening in Chile, where management of pine and eucalyptus plantations is not regulated. This means there are no “firebreaks” – gaps in vegetation – in place to prevent fire spread, Dr Gabriela Azócar, a researcher at the University of Chile’s Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), told Carbon Brief.
She noted that, although Mapuche Indigenous communities in central-south Chile are knowledgeable about native species and manage their forests, their insight and participation are not recognised in the country’s fire management and prevention policies.
Grosfeld stated:
“We are seeing the transformation of the Patagonian landscape from forest to scrubland in recent years. There is a lack of preventive forestry measures, as well as prevention and evacuation plans.”
Watch, read, listen
FUTURE FURNACE: A Guardian video explored the “unbearable experience of walking in a heatwave in the future”.
THE FUN SIDE: A Channel 4 News video covered a new wave of climate comedians who are using digital platforms such as TikTok to entertain and raise awareness.
ICE SECRETS: The BBC’s Climate Question podcast explored how scientists study ice cores to understand what the climate was like in ancient times and how to use them to inform climate projections.
Coming up
- 22-27 February: Ocean Sciences Meeting, Glasgow
- 24-26 February: Methane Mitigation Europe Summit 2026, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- 25-27 February: World Sustainable Development Summit 2026, New Delhi, India
Pick of the jobs
- The Climate Reality Project, digital specialist | Salary: $60,000-$61,200. Location: Washington DC
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), science officer in the IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit | Salary: Unknown. Location: Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Energy Transition Partnership, programme management intern | Salary: Unknown. Location: Bangkok, Thailand
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 20 February 2026: EU’s ‘3C’ warning | Endangerment repeal’s impact on US emissions | ‘Tree invasion’ fuelled South America’s fires appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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