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Lithium Markets in Limbo: Next Leg Up or Down?

In the quest for electrification and cleaner energy sources, all eyes are on lithium, a.k.a. white gold, and how the market strives with battery prices continuing to fall.

According to BloombergNEF, the dramatic lithium price dropping trend will persist for several years, making battery technology economically viable for global decarbonization efforts. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence echoes this sentiment, highlighting the impending lithium market expansion driven by surging EV demand. 

What Drives Lithium Battery Prices Down?

In the past year, the price of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells in China has dropped 51% to an average of $53 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), which is significantly lower than the global average of $95/kWh last year, per BloombergNEF. 

This price decrease is driven by several factors, including:

  • Falling Raw Material Prices: Raw material costs, particularly for the cathode, have sharply declined. The cathode’s share of total costs for LFP cells in China dropped from 50% in early 2023 to under 30% this year.
  • Overproduction: China’s battery production capacity exceeds global electric vehicle (EV) demand, leading manufacturers to cut prices to maintain market share. Average capacity utilization in Chinese battery plants fell from 51% in 2022 to 43% in 2023 and is expected to decrease further.
  • Technological and Manufacturing Improvements: Companies like CATL and BYD are investing heavily in R&D, automation, and new factories, launching new products rapidly.

RELATED NEWS: EV Wars and Breakthroughs: BYD to Overtake Tesla, CATL’s New Battery With 1.5M KM Range


A MESSAGE FROM Li-FT POWER

Li-Ft Power

One of the most essential ingredients in the production of batteries, lithium powers some of the most important devices in our everyday lives. Dramatic lithium price dropping trends will persist for several years making battery technology economically viable for global decarbonization efforts. Li-FT Power Ltd. (TSX-V: LIFT | US: LIFFF) is the fastest developing North American lithium junior. Click here to learn more about their vast lithium assets including their flagship project, a 100%-owned Yellowknife Lithium project. 


A Bright Prediction for Lithium Batteries

BloombergNEF predicts that low lithium battery prices will persist for several years, significantly impacting the automotive and power sectors. At $50/kWh, battery technology is already economically viable for decarbonizing road transport globally.

A major evidence is on point. In China, pack-level prices for the most common battery chemistries have been below the $100/kWh benchmark since October 2023. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) pack prices are now at $75/kWh, making EVs competitive with combustion cars in most segments.

Lithium ion battery prices
Chart from BloombergNEF website

Additionally, Chinese EVs are now the cheapest drivetrain by average transaction price, even excluding mini-city cars. This shift will gradually reflect outside China, benefiting commercial EV manufacturers and reducing the premium they pay for batteries.

China electric vehicle prices cheaper than ICE models
Chart from BloombergNEF

With the lithium battery prices dropping fast, another market stands to gain a lot from it – energy storage

Turnkey energy storage systems are 43% cheaper than a year ago. Global stationary storage installations are projected to rise to 155 GWh this year, up 61% from last year, according to BNEF data.

The narrative of perpetual battery and battery metal shortages has been challenged by recent developments. For instance, Toyota’s assertion last year that there were not enough batteries to meet global demand now appears outdated as battery prices continue to fall.

In fact, the substantial drop in battery prices in China could revolutionize the global automotive market by making EVs more affordable and accelerating the transition to renewable energy storage solutions. 

More notably, it signals that the lithium market is on the verge of a significant expansion in the coming years, as what the Benchmark Mineral Intelligence highlights in its Q2 2024 Lithium Market Overview. Benchmark is a prominent provider of independent data and advisory services for the lithium-ion battery and EV supply chain. 

On the Brink of a Major Expansion

While short-term volatility is expected, long-term prospects indicate a structural deficit as the lithium supply struggles to keep pace with the accelerating EV revolution. 

According to Benchmark’s latest report, global lithium demand is projected to reach 1.15 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2024, with an astounding 87% driven by batteries, particularly EVs—the dominant end-use application. 

Looking ahead, demand is forecasted to more than double, reaching 2.89 million tonnes LCE by 2030. Batteries account for a staggering 94% of consumption, while industrial uses like glass and ceramics decline to just 6% of the total.

Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence remarked on this trend, saying:

“The lithium market is facing a demand tsunami from the rise of EVs that will put immense pressure on supply. Every auto maker has ambitious EV targets, and lithium-ion batteries are the enabling technology.”

On the supply side, Australia led lithium production in 2023 with a 40% global market share from hard rock mines, followed by Chile at 24%. However, Chinese production is anticipated to surpass Chile by 2025 as new projects come online. 

Geographical diversification in lithium mining will increase as the market expands, yet the concentration of lithium chemical production remains high in China and South America. Significant capital investments are deemed necessary to expand current operations and meet future demand.

Benchmark’s price forecast sees spodumene concentrate, a key driver of lithium chemical prices, to average $5,000 per tonne longer-term. This translates to a lithium carbonate price of around $30,000 per tonne.

What All These Mean for Investors?

For investors, the lithium market’s growth trajectory presents opportunities across producers like Albemarle, SQM, Ganfeng Lithium, and Pilbara Minerals, as well as battery manufacturers, EV makers, and ETFs focusing on the EV supply chain. Moores emphasized that white gold is pivotal in unlocking the EV and clean energy revolution. This calls for unprecedented scaling that hinges on significantly higher prices. 

Investors must meticulously navigate opportunities and threats in this dynamic market.

Despite recent challenges such as oversupply and lower-than-anticipated EV sales in China, which led to substantial price declines for lithium carbonate, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. Anticipated strong rebound in demand with accelerating global EV adoption suggests potential price recovery from 2025 onwards. 

But the caveat? Sustained high prices are necessary to incentivize new supply to meet future demand for lithium through the decade.

The post Lithium Markets in Limbo: Next Leg Up or Down? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Why a forest with more species stores more carbon

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A forest is not just trees. The number of species it holds, from canopy giants to understorey shrubs to soil fungi, directly determines how much carbon it can absorb, and, more importantly, how much it can keep over time. Buyers of carbon credits increasingly ask a reasonable question: Is the carbon in this project long-lasting? The science of biodiversity has a clear answer.

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OpenAI Hits Pause on $40B UK AI Project: Energy Costs Shake Data Center Economics

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OpenAI Hits Pause on $40B UK AI Project: Energy Costs Shake Data Center Economics

ChatGPT developer OpenAI has paused its flagship UK data center project, known as “Stargate UK,” citing high energy costs and regulatory uncertainty. The project was part of a broader £31 billion ($40+ billion) investment plan aimed at expanding artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure in the country.

The initiative was designed to deploy up to 8,000 GPUs initially, with plans to scale to 31,000 GPUs over time. It was aimed to boost the UK’s “sovereign compute” capacity. This means building local infrastructure to support AI development and reduce reliance on foreign systems.

However, the company has now paused development. An OpenAI spokesperson stated that they:

“…support the government’s ambition to be an AI leader. AI compute is foundational to that goal – we continue to explore Stargate UK and will move forward when the right conditions such as regulation and the cost of energy enable long-term infrastructure investment.”

Energy Costs Are Now a Core Constraint

The main issue is energy. AI data centers require large amounts of electricity to run GPUs and cooling systems.

In the UK, industrial electricity prices are among the highest in developed markets. Recent estimates show costs at around £168 per megawatt-hour, compared to £69 in France and £38 in Texas. This gap creates a major disadvantage for large-scale data center investments.

AI workloads are especially power-intensive. A single large data center can consume as much electricity as tens of thousands of homes. As AI adoption grows, this demand is rising quickly.

Globally, the International Energy Agency estimates that data centers could consume over 1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2030, up sharply from about 415 TWh in 2024. This growth is largely driven by AI. 

data center electricity use 2035
Source: IEA

The result is clear. Energy is no longer just a cost. It is a key factor in where AI infrastructure gets built.

Regulation Adds Another Layer of Risk

Energy is only part of the challenge. Regulation is also slowing investment. In the UK, uncertainty around AI rules, especially copyright laws for training data, has created hesitation among companies.

Earlier proposals to allow AI firms to use copyrighted content were withdrawn after backlash. This left companies without clear guidance on compliance.

For large infrastructure projects, this uncertainty increases risk. Data centers require billions in upfront investment. Companies need stable rules before committing capital.

Planning delays and grid connection timelines also add friction. These factors increase both cost and project timelines.

Together, energy costs and regulatory uncertainty create a difficult environment for hyperscale AI infrastructure.

OpenAI’s Global Infrastructure Expands, But More Selectively

Despite the pause, ChatGPT-maker is still expanding globally. The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure through partnerships with Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Oracle. It is also linked to a much larger $500 billion “Stargate” initiative in the United States, focused on building next-generation AI data centers.

At the same time, the company faces rising costs. Reports suggest OpenAI could lose billions of dollars annually as it scales infrastructure to meet demand.

This reflects a broader industry shift. AI is becoming more like energy or telecom infrastructure. It requires large capital investment, long timelines, and stable operating conditions.

The pause also highlights a deeper issue. AI growth is increasing pressure on energy systems and the environment.

The Hidden Carbon Cost Behind Every AI Query

ChatGPT and similar tools rely on large data centers. These facilities already account for about 1% to 1.5% of global electricity use. Projections for their energy use vary widely due to various factors. 

Each individual query may seem small. A typical ChatGPT request can use about 0.3 watt-hours of electricity, which is relatively low. However, usage at scale changes the picture.

ChatGPT now serves hundreds of millions of users. Even small energy use per query adds up quickly. Training models is even more energy-intensive. For example, training GPT-3 required about 1,287 megawatt-hours of electricity and produced roughly 550 metric tons of CO₂.

chatgpt environmental footprint

Newer models are even larger. Some estimates suggest training advanced models like GPT-4 could emit up to 15,000 metric tons of CO₂, depending on the energy source.

At the system level, the impact is growing fast. AI systems could generate between 32.6 and 79.7 million tons of CO₂ emissions in 2025 alone. By 2030, AI-driven data centers could add 24 to 44 million tons of CO₂ annually.

AI servers annual carbon emissions
Note: carbon emissions (g) of AI servers from 2024 to 2030 under different scenarios. The red dashed lines in e–g denote the forecast footprint of the US data centres, based on previous literature. Source: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-025-01681-y

Looking further ahead, global generative AI emissions could reach up to 245 million tons per year by 2035 if growth continues. These numbers show a clear pattern. Efficiency is improving, but total demand is rising faster.

Big Tech Scrambles to Balance AI Growth and Emissions

OpenAI has not published a detailed standalone net-zero target. However, its operations rely heavily on partners such as Microsoft, which has committed to becoming carbon negative by 2030.

The company has acknowledged that energy use is a real concern. Leadership has pointed to the need for more renewable energy, including nuclear and clean power, to support AI growth.

Across the industry, companies are responding in several ways:

  • Improving model efficiency to reduce energy per query
  • Investing in renewable energy and long-term power contracts
  • Exploring new cooling systems to reduce water and energy use

Efficiency gains are already visible. Some AI systems have reduced energy per query by more than 30 times within a year, showing how quickly technology can improve. Still, total emissions continue to rise because demand is scaling faster than efficiency gains.

The Global AI Infrastructure Race

The pause in the UK highlights a larger trend. AI infrastructure is becoming a global competition shaped by energy, policy, and cost.

Regions with lower energy prices and faster permitting processes have an advantage. The United States and parts of the Middle East are attracting large-scale AI investments due to cheaper power and supportive policies.

At the same time, governments are trying to attract these projects. The UK has pledged billions to support AI growth and improve compute capacity. But this case shows that policy ambition alone is not enough. Companies need reliable energy, clear rules, and predictable costs.

AI’s Next Phase Will Be Decided by Energy, Not Code

The decision by OpenAI does not signal a retreat from AI investment. Instead, it reflects a shift in priorities.

Companies are becoming more selective about where they build infrastructure. They are focusing on locations that offer the right mix of energy access, cost stability, and regulatory clarity.

The UK project may still move forward, but only if conditions improve. For now, the message is clear. The future of AI will not be shaped by technology alone. It will also depend on energy systems, policy frameworks, and long-term investment conditions.

The post OpenAI Hits Pause on $40B UK AI Project: Energy Costs Shake Data Center Economics appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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U.S. Uranium Mining Returns: UEC Launches First New Mine in a Decade

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U.S. Uranium Mining Returns: UEC Launches First New Mine in a Decade

Uranium Energy Corporation (NYSE: UEC) has started production at its Burke Hollow project in South Texas. This is the first new uranium mine to open in the U.S. in over ten years.

The project started production in April 2026 after getting final regulatory approval. This marks a big step for domestic uranium supply. It’s also the world’s newest in-situ recovery (ISR) uranium mine, which shows a move toward less harmful extraction methods.

Burke Hollow was originally discovered in 2012 and spans roughly 20,000 acres, with only about half of the site explored so far. This suggests significant long-term expansion potential as additional wellfields are developed.

The mine’s output will go to UEC’s Hobson Central Processing Plant in Texas. This plant can produce up to 4 million pounds of uranium each year.

A Scalable ISR Platform Expands U.S. Uranium Capacity

The Burke Hollow launch transforms UEC into a multi-site uranium producer in the United States. The company runs two active ISR production platforms. The second one is at its Christensen Ranch facility in Wyoming; both are shown in the table from UEC.

UEC burke hollow resources

UEC Christensen Ranch resources

This “hub-and-spoke” model allows uranium from multiple wellfields to be processed through centralized facilities, improving efficiency and scalability. UEC’s operations in Texas and Wyoming are now active. This gives them a licensed production capacity of about 12 million pounds per year across the U.S.

ISR mining plays a key role in this strategy. Unlike conventional mining, ISR involves circulating solutions underground to dissolve uranium and pump it to the surface. This reduces surface disturbance and can lower environmental impact compared to open-pit or underground mining.

Burke Hollow is the largest ISR uranium discovery in the U.S. in the last ten years. This boosts its long-term value as a domestic resource.

Unhedged Strategy Pays Off as Uranium Prices Rise

UEC’s production launch comes at a time of strong uranium market conditions. The company uses a fully unhedged strategy. This means it sells uranium at current market prices instead of securing long-term contracts.

This approach has recently delivered strong financial results. In early 2026, UEC sold 200,000 pounds of uranium for $101 each. This price was about 25% higher than average market rates. The sale brought in over $20 million in revenue and around $10 million in gross profit.

The strategy allows the company to benefit directly from rising uranium prices, which have been supported by:

  • Growing global nuclear energy demand
  • Supply constraints in key producing regions
  • Increased long-term contracting by utilities

Unhedged exposure raises risk in downturns, but offers more upside in strong markets. UEC is currently taking advantage of this.

Nuclear Energy Growth Is Driving Demand for Uranium

The timing of Burke Hollow’s launch aligns with a broader global shift back toward nuclear energy. Governments are increasingly turning to nuclear power as a reliable, low-carbon energy source.

nuclear power capacity additions IAEA projection 2024 to 2050
Source: IAEA

The International Atomic Energy Agency projects that global nuclear capacity could double by 2050, depending on policy and investment trends. This would require a significant increase in uranium supply.

In the United States, nuclear energy accounts for around 20% of electricity generation. It also produces zero carbon emissions during operations. This makes it a key component of many net-zero strategies.

There are several factors supporting renewed nuclear demand, including:

  • Development of small modular reactors (SMRs)
  • Extension of existing nuclear plant lifetimes
  • Government funding to maintain nuclear capacity
  • Rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification

As demand grows, securing a reliable uranium supply becomes increasingly important.

uranium demand and supply UEC

Reducing Import Risk: A Strategic Domestic Supply Push

The Burke Hollow project also addresses a major vulnerability in U.S. energy policy. The country currently imports about 95% of its uranium needs, leaving it exposed to global supply risks.

A large share of uranium production and enrichment capacity is concentrated in a few countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan. This concentration has raised concerns about supply disruptions and geopolitical risk.

uranium production US 2025 EIA

By expanding domestic production, UEC is helping to reduce reliance on imports and strengthen the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain.

The company’s broader strategy includes building a vertically integrated platform covering mining, processing, and, eventually, uranium conversion. This approach aligns with U.S. government efforts to rebuild domestic nuclear fuel capabilities.

Federal programs have allocated billions to boost uranium production and enrichment. This shows how important the sector is.

Two Hubs, One Strategy: Wyoming Supports the Texas Breakthrough

While Burke Hollow is the main focus, UEC’s Christensen Ranch operation in Wyoming remains an important part of its production base.

The Wyoming site has recently received approvals for expanded wellfield development, allowing it to increase output alongside the Texas operation.

Together, the two sites form the foundation of UEC’s dual-hub production model. However, it is the Texas project that marks the first new U.S. uranium mine in over a decade, making it the central milestone in the company’s growth strategy.

Investor Momentum Builds Around Uranium Revival

The restart of U.S. uranium production is drawing strong attention from investors and industry players. Uranium markets have tightened in recent years, driven by rising demand and limited new supply.

UEC’s production launch has already had a positive market impact. The company’s share price rose following the announcement, reflecting investor confidence in its growth strategy.

UEC stock price

At the same time, utilities are increasing long-term contracting activity to secure fuel supply. This trend is expected to continue as new nuclear capacity comes online and existing plants extend operations.

Industry forecasts suggest that uranium demand will remain strong through the 2030s, supporting higher prices and increased investment in new production.

Lower Impact Mining, Higher ESG Expectations

The use of ISR mining at Burke Hollow reflects a broader shift toward more sustainable extraction methods. ISR typically reduces land disturbance and avoids large-scale excavation.

However, environmental management remains critical. Key issues include groundwater protection, chemical use, and long-term site restoration.

UEC has emphasized environmental controls and regulatory compliance in its operations. These efforts are important for maintaining social license and meeting ESG expectations.

From a climate perspective, uranium production plays an indirect but important role. Supporting nuclear energy, it helps enable low-carbon electricity generation and reduces reliance on fossil fuels.

The Bottom Line: A Defining Moment for U.S. Uranium Production

The launch of the Burke Hollow mine marks a major milestone for the U.S. uranium sector. It ends a decade-long gap in new mine development and signals renewed momentum in domestic production.

In the short term, it strengthens supply and supports rising uranium markets. In the long term, it highlights the growing role of nuclear energy in global decarbonization strategies.

UEC’s Burke Hollow shows that new uranium projects can advance in today’s market. There are still challenges, like scaling production and handling environmental risks, but progress is possible.

As demand for nuclear energy continues to grow, domestic projects like Burke Hollow will play a key role in shaping the future of energy security and low-carbon power.

The post U.S. Uranium Mining Returns: UEC Launches First New Mine in a Decade appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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