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Who Will Drive the Next Wave of Carbon Credit Demand? Insights from AlliedOffsets

The voluntary carbon market (VCM) lets companies buy carbon credits to offset their greenhouse gas emissions. AlliedOffsets, a data and technology firm for carbon offsetting, tracks this market closely. Their database covers more than 36,000 projects, over 28,000 buyers, and billions of tons of carbon that have been issued or retired. 

The VCM is growing fast. Over the last five years, most buyers have come from technology, telecommunications, and energy. Other sectors, like industrials, manufacturing, financial services, and aviation, also participate, though in smaller amounts.

The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan have the most buyers, showing that developed countries lead the market.

As the market grows, new companies and sectors are expected to join. AlliedOffsets studied over 130,000 companies to predict who will likely buy carbon credits next. This helps sellers, project developers, and policymakers focus their efforts where demand is likely.

LtB Model: Predicting the Next Wave of Credit Buyers

AlliedOffsets uses a model called Likelihood to Buy (LtB). It looks at companies active before and since 2024, and even those that have never bought credits publicly. The company stated:

“Ranking specific companies’ likelihoods and identifying patterns in their unifying traits informs market suppliers and intermediaries about who to pivot engagement towards. Understanding the features that play the greatest roles in determining companies’ likelihoods, meanwhile, is vital for highlighting wider drivers for the growth of the market, which serve as levers for policymakers and signals for companies themselves.”

The model includes data from 36 global registries, covering both non-anonymous purchases and retirements. It looks at several key factors that affect a company’s likelihood to buy, including:

  • Abatement potential – how easy it is for the company to reduce emissions.
  • Data center usage – companies with large data centers use more energy and may buy more credits.
  • Headquarters country – companies in the US, UK, and China lead predicted purchases.
  • Internal carbon pricing – companies with higher carbon costs buy more credits.
  • Net-zero targets – companies with short-term or long-term climate goals are more likely to buy.
  • Sector – aviation, energy, and tech tend to buy more due to rules and public pressure.
  • Annual profit or loss – profitable firms are more able to purchase carbon credits.
factors for Likelihood to Buy VCM
Source: AlliedOffsets

The model also uses SHAP analysis to show which factors influence predicted buying the most. Companies that recently bought credits are weighted higher. Some sectors, like aviation, are manually marked as high-likelihood because of rules like CORSIA, which requires airlines to offset emissions.

AlliedOffsets also separates companies into new entrants and returning buyers, helping track demand trends.

Forecasted Carbon Credit Demand

AlliedOffsets predicts that new and returning buyers will need about 281 million credits per year. This comes from over 11,500 companies with characteristics similar to current buyers.

The demand by project type is expected to have this composition:

VCM demand by project type AlliedOffsets
Source: AlliedOffsets

Demand for forestry projects is rising, partly because of forward contracts, which made up 55% of the 147 million credits negotiated in 2025. 

carbon credit offtakes annual 2025 Sylvera
Source: Sylvera

By country, the greatest demand will come from the U.S., China, UK, France, Germany, and Brazil. 

VCM credits forecasted demand by country and sector
Source: AlliedOffsets

Aviation will be a big factor because airlines must offset emissions under CORSIA rules. Energy and technology companies in the US, like AT&T, IBM, and Ingram Micro, are likely to enter or re-enter the market.

Moreover, new entrants will expand the buyer base, per AlliedOffsets analysis. These include consumer goods, professional services, healthcare, and industrial firms. Many come from countries with fewer buyers so far, like Turkey and Belgium.

Financial Impact of Returning and New Buyers 

AlliedOffsets estimates that new and returning buyers will spend around $2.27 billion per year. Sector contributions are expected as follows, with aviation and energy leading the pack:

  • Aviation: over $800 million per year (about one-third of total).
  • Energy and Technology & Telecommunications: substantial ongoing purchases, over $300 million a year.
  • Consumer services, industrials, financial services, professional services: smaller but steady spend.

sectors expected to lead VCM demand forecast
Source: AlliedOffsets

Returning buyers bought nearly 7 million credits in previous years. ExxonMobil accounted for 66% of these purchases through both forward contracts and OTC deals. Other companies, like ArcelorMittal, invest in low-emission technology, reducing the need to buy credits.

New entrants, especially airlines, will increase activity. Credits purchased for CORSIA compliance must match emissions for international flights to and from ICAO member states.

Overall, growth in both returning and new buyers shows that corporate demand for carbon credits is likely to rise sharply. Companies that belong to initiatives like RE100, SBTi, Race to Zero, or NZBA are more likely to participate in the voluntary carbon market.

A Turning Point and Future Forecasts: Supply, Demand, and Policy Drivers

In 2025, the voluntary carbon credit market saw big changes. Total retirements fell to about 168 million tonnes, and new issuances dropped to around 270 million tonnes, the lowest since 2020.

Despite this, spending rose to roughly $1.04 billion, up from $980 million in 2024. The average price per credit also climbed to about $6.10, showing that buyers are paying more for high-quality, trusted credits rather than just buying large amounts.

carbon credit price 2025 MSCI

Companies are now choosing credits with strong monitoring and real climate impact. Nature-based projects, like afforestation and reforestation, did better than older REDD+ credits.

Forward contracts also grew, with over $12 billion signed in 2025, even though these will deliver only about 10 million credits a year through 2035. This shows that many companies want to secure the future supply of trusted credits. These trends match forecasts from AlliedOffsets, where demand is expected to rise for durable, high-quality carbon credits.

AlliedOffsets keeps expanding its database, now covering over 60,000 companies. Adding historical emissions data and checking with initiatives like the Forest Stewardship Council and Science Based Targets will improve forecasts.

Analysts expect supply limits may appear in forestry and land use projects as demand grows. Engineered removals, chemical processes, and industrial projects will also get more attention. Large investments by companies like Google and Amazon, which pledged $100 million to superpollutant removal projects by 2030, are expected to drive this.

Returning and new buyers, led by aviation, energy, and tech, will shape the next wave of demand. Understanding these patterns helps policymakers, intermediaries, and project developers plan supply and engagement strategies.

The voluntary carbon market is entering a new growth phase, driven by rules, climate commitments, and better forecasting tools. With models like Likelihood to Buy, market participants can plan ahead. Forestry, renewable energy, and industrial projects are likely to see the biggest benefits as corporate demand grows worldwide.

The post Who Will Drive the Next Wave of Carbon Credit Demand? Insights from AlliedOffsets appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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The new SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard: what it means for business

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On 11 June 2026, the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) published the most substantial revision of its flagship corporate framework since its introduction. The SBTi Corporate Net-Zero Standard Version 2.0 takes effect on 1 February 2027 and reshapes the way companies approach their net-zero targets.

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How cookstove carbon credits deliver value to buyers, communities, and nature

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In a kitchen in rural Kenya, a mother kneels beside a three-stone fire to cook the day’s ugali (a starchy staple food). The flames are open, the smoke is thick, and her youngest child sits close by, breathing it in. This scene plays out in millions of homes every morning, and it is also where a measurable carbon credit can begin.

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The Environmental Impact of Industry: Causes, Effects & Solutions

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Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have left a significant and growing mark on the natural world. Pollution, carbon emissions, and altered land use have degraded ecosystems, contaminated water supplies, and pushed global temperatures to record highs. These are not distant consequences. They affect the air people breathe, the food they eat, and the stability of the climate every community depends on.

Understanding the environmental effects of industry is the first step toward meaningful change. When we grasp the full picture of how industrial practices damage the planet, we can make better decisions at every level, from individual choices to corporate policy to government regulation.

This guide covers the origins of industrial pollution, its specific environmental impacts, which industries carry the heaviest footprint, and the solutions that are already making a difference. We also highlight companies leading by example and explain how businesses of all sizes can take action today.

How Did the Industrial Revolution Cause Environmental Pollution?

The Industrial Revolution began in England in the 18th century before spreading through Europe and across the world. Nations shifted from agrarian economies to industrial ones, and fossil fuels were burned on a massive scale to power that transition. The environmental deterioration that followed has been compounding ever since.

Land use changed dramatically alongside industrial growth. As factories and urban centers expanded, farmland shrank and agriculture itself became industrialized. Industrial farming introduced fossil-fuel-powered machinery, synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, and concentrated livestock operations. The result was soil deterioration, widespread air and water pollution, and a significant rise in greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector alone.

Deforestation and urbanization compounded the damage by eliminating natural carbon sinks. Forests and wetlands that once absorbed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere were cleared for development, removing the land’s natural ability to absorb carbon and leaving more greenhouse gases concentrated in the air.

The numbers tell the story clearly. Atmospheric CO2 was consistently around 280 parts per million before industrialization began. According to the IEA, CO2 concentrations reached approximately 427 parts per million in 2025, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels, with total energy-related emissions hitting a record high of nearly 38.4 billion tonnes. That figure has risen every decade since the Industrial Revolution began.

Industrialization continues today in developing nations, many of which lack the financial infrastructure to adopt clean energy and rely instead on coal, oil, and petroleum to power their growing economies. Even many developed nations remain heavily dependent on polluting industries, continuing to add to global greenhouse gas concentrations.

What Are the Environmental Impacts of Industry?

Industrial pollution creates environmental damage at every scale, from local waterways to the global atmosphere. The consequences affect ecosystems, human health, and the long-term stability of the climate. Below are the three primary categories of environmental impact driven by industry.

Pollution

Industry causes pollution across water, air, and soil, the three foundations of life on Earth. Each type of pollution carries its own chain of consequences.

Water pollution occurs in both freshwater systems and oceans. Water used in industrial processes becomes contaminated when it contacts metals, chemicals, or radioactive waste, and that water is often discharged into rivers and waterways. The result is contaminated drinking water, damaged aquatic ecosystems, and crops irrigated with polluted water that can become harmful to consume. Globally, 80% of wastewater is still released untreated into the environment.

Air pollution is any physical, biological, or chemical change to the atmosphere that reduces air quality. Gas, smoke, and fine particulate matter from burning coal or natural gas cause respiratory and cardiovascular disease in humans and threaten ecosystems globally. Air pollution now contributes to approximately 7.9 million premature deaths per year worldwide, making it one of the leading environmental causes of mortality. Airborne contaminants also cause acid rain, which ruins crops and acidifies freshwater bodies.

Soil pollution occurs when chemical levels in the ground exceed safe thresholds and present a threat to human health or ecosystems. Soil becomes polluted through industrial waste, chemical pesticides and fertilizers, oil spills, and landfills. Heavy metal contamination from industrial waste currently affects an estimated 20% of global agricultural land. Contaminated soil reduces crop yields, harms wildlife, and can lead to serious health problems in humans and animals living in affected areas.

Ecological Consequences

Pollution and altered land use place severe strain on ecosystems in ways that ripple outward for generations. Three interconnected effects stand out.

Habitat destruction results from deforestation, urban expansion, and industrial development. When natural habitats are destroyed or fragmented, plants and animals lose the environments they need to survive. Species are pushed into shrinking territories, forcing greater competition for resources and raising extinction risks. According to current data, 33% of global soils are degraded due to pollution and erosion, compressing the productive land available to both agriculture and wildlife.

Slower environmental recovery is another consequence of the cumulative strain on ecosystems. Natural disasters like wildfires and hurricanes are growing more frequent and severe as the climate shifts, and ecosystems already weakened by pollution and habitat loss take longer to recover from each new event. Industrial accidents, such as oil spills or chemical leaks, add further damage that can persist in an environment for decades.

Biodiversity loss continues to accelerate as species go extinct at rates far above natural baselines. The combination of habitat destruction, pollution, climate change, and resource depletion creates overlapping pressures that many species cannot adapt to quickly enough.

Atmospheric Changes

Industrial practices release large quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, driving global warming and climate change. These two phenomena are distinct but deeply linked.

Global warming occurs when greenhouse gases like CO2 and methane accumulate in the atmosphere and trap heat that would otherwise radiate into space. Burning fossil fuels is the primary driver of CO2 buildup. Agricultural practices and landfills release significant quantities of methane, a greenhouse gas with more than 80 times the short-term warming power of CO2.

Climate change is the broader set of consequences that follows from global warming. Rising temperatures shift rainfall patterns, intensify storms, accelerate glacial melting, raise sea levels, and make agricultural conditions less predictable. Every fraction of a degree of additional warming increases these risks. The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is now projected to be exhausted by 2029 at current emission rates.

What Industries Have the Largest Environmental Impact?

Green Energy Claims Image of Smoking Factory Plant

Some industries carry a disproportionately large environmental footprint. Researchers evaluate environmental impact across six key components: greenhouse gas emissions, water use, waste generation, land and water pollutants, air pollutants, and natural resource use. The industries that dominate these categories are as follows.

Energy and electric utilities are the most polluting sector on Earth, generating approximately 15.83 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions annually. The energy sector ranks highest in four of the six environmental impact categories: greenhouse gas emissions, waste, air pollutants, and natural resource use. As long as coal and natural gas remain central to electricity generation, this sector will continue to lead all others in environmental damage.

Transport is the second most polluting industry globally, responsible for around 8.43 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year. Road transport accounts for the majority of that figure, while aviation and shipping contribute significantly. The sector is under growing pressure to electrify and adopt cleaner fuels.

Manufacturing and construction generate approximately 6.3 billion tonnes of emissions annually and consume vast quantities of raw materials including metals, sand, and timber. This sector appears across all six environmental impact categories, reflecting its broad footprint across pollution, resource use, and land disruption.

Food production ranks as the highest non-utility industry in water use and land and water pollutants. Industrial agriculture is responsible for the majority of freshwater withdrawals globally and is a leading driver of deforestation, soil degradation, and chemical runoff into waterways.

How Can the Environmental Impact of Industry Be Reduced?

Meaningful solutions to industrial pollution already exist. The challenge is implementing them at speed and scale. Below are the most impactful approaches available to businesses and industries today.

Better Waste Management

Improperly handled industrial waste is one of the most direct and preventable causes of environmental pollution. When waste is not treated and disposed of correctly, it contaminates waterways, soil, and groundwater. Industries that invest in proper waste treatment and disposal systems can eliminate a significant portion of their local environmental impact. This is also an area where regulation has historically produced measurable results.

Improved Recycling and Water Reuse

Unnecessary pollution occurs when recyclable materials and reusable water are instead discarded. Industrial water recycling, for example, keeps contaminated water within closed systems rather than releasing it into rivers and oceans. Expanding recycling programs across manufacturing sectors reduces both raw material extraction and waste generation, addressing two environmental problems at once.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Carbon Offsetting

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes is the single most important lever for slowing climate change. Switching to renewable or clean energy cuts emissions at the source. Gas capture programs reduce methane and other potent greenhouse gases that would otherwise escape from operations like landfills and agricultural sites. For emissions that cannot yet be eliminated, verified carbon offset programs allow businesses to fund reforestation, methane capture, and renewable energy projects that compensate for their remaining footprint. Understanding the social cost of carbon helps businesses make the case internally for these investments.

Smarter Land Use

Industrial site selection and land management have lasting ecological consequences. Businesses should choose locations that minimize habitat disruption and avoid high-risk areas where accidents like fires or spills could cause catastrophic environmental damage. Reducing resource extraction on sensitive lands and funding environmental restoration projects, including reforestation and wetland rehabilitation, helps offset the land-use impact of ongoing operations. Carbon removal credits are one mechanism businesses can use to support these restoration efforts directly.

Advancing Technology

Older industrial technologies are often energy-inefficient and generate disproportionately high levels of pollution. Upgrading to newer equipment and processes allows industries to reduce emissions and resource consumption simultaneously. Switching to renewable energy, adopting AI-driven energy management, and investing in cleaner production technologies are all practical steps that industries can take now. The companies seeing the most progress are those that have embedded sustainability goals into their technology roadmaps rather than treating them as separate initiatives.

Environmental Awareness and Impact Assessment

Education and measurement underpin all other solutions. Industries that conduct regular environmental impact assessments, track their resource consumption and emissions, and train employees on sustainability practices are better positioned to identify problems early and respond effectively. Measuring and managing your carbon footprint is as essential for businesses as financial reporting, and increasingly, regulators and investors are requiring exactly that.

What Companies Are Reducing Their Environmental Impact?

Several major companies have made substantial commitments to reducing their environmental footprint and serve as benchmarks for the rest of the corporate world. Their progress, and in some cases their setbacks, offer useful lessons for any business navigating the transition to more sustainable operations.

Microsoft has been carbon neutral since 2012 and has set more ambitious targets since then. The company’s 2025 Environmental Sustainability Report outlines its goals to become carbon negative, water positive, and zero waste by 2030. Microsoft charges an internal carbon fee to business units and reinvests those funds into carbon reduction and removal initiatives. The company achieved its goal to protect more land than it uses by 2025 and has invested in renewable energy across 16 countries, including its first large-scale nuclear energy agreement.

Intel aims to be net positive on water use and achieve 100% renewable energy for its global operations by 2030. Intel links a percentage of employee compensation to corporate sustainability metrics, recognizing that achieving environmental goals requires company-wide participation rather than top-down mandates alone.

Alphabet (Google) has made significant progress on data center efficiency, reducing data center energy emissions by 12% in 2024 despite a 27% increase in overall electricity consumption, driven largely by AI workloads. Google’s data centers now provide six times more computing capacity per unit of electricity compared to five years ago. In 2024, Google signed agreements for more than 8 gigawatts of clean energy, the highest annual volume in the company’s history. The company has also pioneered AI-driven cooling systems for its data centers that dramatically reduce energy waste. It is worth noting that all three of these companies face the growing challenge of rising energy demand from AI infrastructure, a reminder that sustainability commitments require continuous adaptation as business models evolve.

Changing the Environmental Impact of Industry

More than two centuries of large-scale industrial activity have given us a clear view of the consequences. Pollution, ecological damage, and atmospheric change are not side effects we can manage around. They are the defining environmental challenge of our time, and the window for meaningful action is narrowing.

The good news is that solutions are no longer theoretical. Renewable energy is now cost-competitive with fossil fuels in most markets. Carbon capture and offset programs are funding real-world emissions reductions. Companies across every sector are finding that sustainable practices often improve efficiency and reduce long-term costs alongside their environmental benefits.

Whether you run a business or simply want to understand your own role in this picture, the path forward starts with knowing where you stand. Visit Terrapass to learn how you can measure your carbon footprint, reduce your emissions, and support verified projects that make a difference.

Brought to you by terrapass.com

The post The Environmental Impact of Industry: Causes, Effects & Solutions appeared first on Terrapass.

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