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中国国家主席习近平于2020年承诺在2060年前实现碳中和,此后中国围绕能源转型的思路发生了巨大转变。

然而,尽管此后中国出台了一系列重大政策,但目前仍不明确什么是新的能源系统,以及中国实现碳中和目标的最有效途径是什么。

我们的最新研究为中国能源转型建立了三种情景模型:一种是中国在2055年前建立净零排放的能源系统;一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标;还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。

我们发现,将能效措施、终端用能消费电气化和基于各种可再生能源(如太阳能和风能)的低碳电力供应结合起来,可以极大地帮助该国在2055年前实现脱碳目标。

在最高情景下,中国的电力部门到2055年将不使用化石燃料,而一些行业将继续使用少量煤炭和天然气。然而,配备碳捕集与封存技术的生物质发电厂所产生的负排放将对此起到平衡作用。

双碳目标如何改变局势

2020年9月,当习近平开始在联合国大会上发表演讲时,几乎无人预料到中国会发表如此具有开创性的宣言。

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他说:“中国将力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。”

这一政策现在更多地被称为“双碳”目标。

这句话改变了人们对中国能源转型的整体认识。

在此之前,中国在2017年“十九大”上的目标是“要推进能源生产和消费革命,构建清洁低碳、安全高效的能源体系。”

而习近平在2020年的讲话将中国的优先发展从实现“低碳”转变为实现“碳中和”,使能源部门从至少包括部分化石燃料消费,转变为一旦实现碳中和就几乎不给煤炭、石油和天然气留下空间。

要实现这一转变,需要处于中国政策体系和能源系统的利益相关者,如主要发电企业,真正改变思维方式。

中国在宣布碳中和目标后立即开始行动:国务院推出了“1+N”政策体系,其中包括实现“双碳”目标的总体纲领性文件(“1”)和实施该战略的一系列更具体的指导方针和法规(“N”)。

到目前为止,这些政策主要侧重于在2030年之前实现碳达峰。不过,在2060年之前实现碳中和的长期目标始终存在。

国家能源局发布了一份新型电力系统发展蓝皮书。在更广泛的层面上,多个政府部门已提出要为实现碳中和而推动整个能源系统——而不仅仅是电力系统——进行转型。

因此,今天中国能源转型的基础比习近平宣布之前更加坚实和精确。现在的问题是:新型能源系统将是什么样子,中国将如何实现这一目标?

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中国能源转型的三种情景

为了回答这些问题,我们的研究模拟了中国能源转型的三种情景:一种是中国在2055年前建立一个净零排放的能源系统;一种是中国在2055年左右实现这一目标;还有一种是推断当前发展趋势的基线情景。

该分析基于一种详细的自下而上的建模方法,同时将“美丽中国”愿景——实现“绿色和高质量增长”的官方倡议——作为转型的指导方针。

在我们的模型中,能源转型的总体战略包括三个紧密相连的行动:

  1. 提高整个供应链的能源效率;
  2. 尽可能使终端用能部门电气化;
  3. 将电力部门转变为以太阳能和风能为支柱的“绿色”、无化石能源部门。

(政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新评估报告显示,这些是将升温控制在1.5°C或2°C的所有全球路径的关键要素。)

遵循这一战略的结果是,中国的能源系统将能够为中国可持续的经济增长提供动能,同时实现净零碳排放、空气质量改善和高水平的能源安全。

在最高情景下,中国的电力系统将从2045年起实现碳中和,整个能源系统将在2055年前实现碳中和。

与今天的情况相比,尽管经济有所增长,但2060年的一次能源消费总量将有所下降。此外,煤炭、石油和天然气将几乎被逐步淘汰,对进口化石燃料的依赖将被消除。

下图显示了2021年中国经济的能流(上图)与2060年在最高情景下的能流(下图)的对比。

在左侧,各版块显示了流入经济的一次能源来源,如煤炭(黑色)、天然气(粉红色)、石油(灰色),以及非化石燃料,如核能(棕色)、水能(深蓝色)、风能(浅蓝色)和太阳能(黄色)。

各版块的中心都显示了一次能源转化为更有用形式的过程,如电力或精炼油产品。化石燃料中所含的大部分一次能源在这一阶段以废热的形式被浪费(“损失”)。

右侧是按部门划分的最终能源用户。

最值得注意的是,化石燃料(尤其是煤炭)是2021年最大的能源来源,而在雄心勃勃的2060年情景(见下图)中,低碳能源则占主导地位。

China Energy Flow Chart
China Energy Flow Chart
Left: Sources of primary energy in China. Centre: Transformation of primary energy into more useful forms. Right: Users of final energy by sector. Top panel: Energy flows in 2021. Bottom: 2060. Credit: ERI (2023).

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中国能源转型的三个阶段

我们的研究表明,转型之路将分为三个主要阶段。第一阶段是2030年前的碳达峰。

在此期间,风电和光伏发电的部署将继续增加,同时工业和交通部门的电气化也将取得进展。

然而,就一次能源消费总量而言,煤炭和石油仍将是最主要的初级能源消费。

接下来是“能源革命”阶段,从2030年到2050年。在这一阶段,光电和风电将成为电力供应的主要来源,终端用能部门的电气化程度将大幅提高。

摒弃化石燃料可以最大限度地减少发电和提炼过程中的废热损失。同时,利用可再生能源生产的“绿氢”在工业领域将变得越来越重要。

第三阶段是巩固阶段,从2050年到2060年。脱碳发生在钢铁和化工等难以实现电气化的细分部门,旧的风光发电厂将被新的风光发电厂取代,能源组合中剩余的化石燃料几乎被淘汰。

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煤电成为灵活性提供者

虽然中国政府计划从2025年起“逐步淘汰”煤炭,但根据当前的政策方针和市场情况,我们估计在三种情景中,煤电装机都不会迅速消失。

相反,燃煤电厂将逐渐成为保障能源安全和满足电力需求高峰的能力提供者,而不再进行大量发电。

当燃煤电厂达到30年左右的预期寿命时就将被关闭,而不会被新的煤电装机所取代。如下图所示,在我们最高情景中,最后一批煤电厂将于2055年关闭。

图中上半部分显示了2021年至2060年燃煤电厂的装机容量,下半部分显示了燃煤电厂的发电量。

煤炭装机容量在21世纪20年代末达峰,然后平缓下降
燃煤发电在2030年达峰,于2055年下降至26TWh
Top: coal power capacity 2021-2060, gigawatts. Bottom: coal power generation 2021-2060, terawatt hours. Credit: ERI (2023)

与此同时,在我们的情景中,天然气在电力部门作用有限。这是因为光电和风电可以提供更便宜的电力,而现有的燃煤电厂——加上储能和需求侧响应设施的大规模扩张——足以提供灵活性和调峰能力。

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管理由多变的风电和光电主导的电网

依赖光电和风电作为主要电力来源的能源系统,需要采取特殊的灵活性措施促成供需有效匹配。

下图显示了在2055年前实现碳中和的雄心勃勃的情景下,2060年夏季一周内每小时电力平衡的模拟示例。

图中上半部分显示的是供应侧发电量。在白天,光电(黄色)在电力生产中占主导地位,而风电厂(浅蓝)在24小时内都有更稳定的输出。

在傍晚和夜间,储能(紫色)会被释放,水力发电量(深蓝)高于白天。

图中下半部分显示的是需求侧的用电情况。储能(紫色)在白天充电,电动汽车智能充电(蓝色)在一周内提供灵活性。

A safe, efficient, and green electricity system dominated by wind and solar power
Top: Electricity supply on a hypothetical summer week in 2060. Bottom: Electricity demand. Credit: ERI (2023)

作为后备电源,电动汽车车网互动发挥着重要作用——其不一定是重要的能源供应商,而是在风电和光电输出有限时,成为必要时可以启用的最后手段。该方案是保证电力系统容量充足的一种经济、高效的方法。

在2055年之前,煤电厂同样可能是电力系统可靠且经济的容量提供者,尽管如前所述,其平均发电量并不高。

从日常调度(管理供需的过程)的角度来看,这种创造灵活性的方式似乎很复杂。然而,一个高效且运作良好的电力市场(包括消费者和生产者)可以做到这一点。

消除各省之间的电力交易障碍、构建全国统一的电力市场,将是实现这一目标的关键因素。

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未来远景规划

我们在《中国能源转型展望》(China Energy Transformation Outlook)中的情景对净零排放能源系统的长期未来提供了一系列量化远景规划。

我们对电力系统和其他能源终端用能部门建立了详细的模型,从而可以将这一新能源系统的发展与实现这一转变的政策措施联系起来。

我们研究得出的一个关键结论与上述中国能源转型不同阶段的时机有关。我们的模型表明,成功协调这些阶段至关重要,这样才能在保持能源安全的同时避免对能源基础设施进行不必要的投资。

我们情景中的其他关键推动因素包括扩大电网所需投资、国家电力市场的发展和对能源系统灵活性的支持。

即使有最优的远景规划和从我们的路径中获得的洞见,中国要实现2060年的目标仍有许多需要克服的挑战和障碍。

然而,我们的情景表明,有一些可行且具有成本效益的路径可以在不等待新技术突破的情况下实施。

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The post 嘉宾来稿:中国能源系统如何在2055年前实现碳中和 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

嘉宾来稿:中国能源系统如何在2055年前实现碳中和

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Climate Change

Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate

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We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter.
Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Food inflation on the rise

DELUGE STRIKES FOOD: Extreme rainfall and flooding across the Mediterranean and north Africa has “battered the winter growing regions that feed Europe…threatening food price rises”, reported the Financial Times. Western France has “endured more than 36 days of continuous rain”, while farmers’ associations in Spain’s Andalusia estimate that “20% of all production has been lost”, it added. Policy expert David Barmes told the paper that the “latest storms were part of a wider pattern of climate shocks feeding into food price inflation”.

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NO BEEF: The UK’s beef farmers, meanwhile, “face a double blow” from climate change as “relentless rain forces them to keep cows indoors”, while last summer’s drought hit hay supplies, said another Financial Times article. At the same time, indoor growers in south England described a 60% increase in electricity standing charges as a “ticking timebomb” that could “force them to raise their prices or stop production, which will further fuel food price inflation”, wrote the Guardian.

TINDERBOX’ AND TARIFFS: A study, covered by the Guardian, warned that major extreme weather and other “shocks” could “spark social unrest and even food riots in the UK”. Experts cited “chronic” vulnerabilities, including climate change, low incomes, poor farming policy and “fragile” supply chains that have made the UK’s food system a “tinderbox”. A New York Times explainer noted that while trade could once guard against food supply shocks, barriers such as tariffs and export controls – which are being “increasingly” used by politicians – “can shut off that safety valve”.

El Niño looms

NEW ENSO INDEX: Researchers have developed a new index for calculating El Niño, the large-scale climate pattern that influences global weather and causes “billions in damages by bringing floods to some regions and drought to others”, reported CNN. It added that climate change is making it more difficult for scientists to observe El Niño patterns by warming up the entire ocean. The outlet said that with the new metric, “scientists can now see it earlier and our long-range weather forecasts will be improved for it.”

WARMING WARNING: Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 60% chance of the current La Niña conditions shifting towards a neutral state over the next few months, with an El Niño likely to follow in late spring, according to Reuters. The Vibes, a Malaysian news outlet, quoted a climate scientist saying: “If the El Niño does materialise, it could possibly push 2026 or 2027 as the warmest year on record, replacing 2024.”

CROP IMPACTS: Reuters noted that neutral conditions lead to “more stable weather and potentially better crop yields”. However, the newswire added, an El Niño state would mean “worsening drought conditions and issues for the next growing season” to Australia. El Niño also “typically brings a poor south-west monsoon to India, including droughts”, reported the Hindu’s Business Line. A 2024 guest post for Carbon Brief explained that El Niño is linked to crop failure in south-eastern Africa and south-east Asia.

News and views

  • DAM-AG-ES: Several South Korean farmers filed a lawsuit against the country’s state-owned utility company, “seek[ing] financial compensation for climate-related agricultural damages”, reported United Press International. Meanwhile, a national climate change assessment for the Philippines found that the country “lost up to $219bn in agricultural damages from typhoons, floods and droughts” over 2000-10, according to Eco-Business.
  • SCORCHED GRASS: South Africa’s Western Cape province is experiencing “one of the worst droughts in living memory”, which is “scorching grass and killing livestock”, said Reuters. The newswire wrote: “In 2015, a drought almost dried up the taps in the city; farmers say this one has been even more brutal than a decade ago.”
  • NOUVELLE VEG: New guidelines published under France’s national food, nutrition and climate strategy “urged” citizens to “limit” their meat consumption, reported Euronews. The delayed strategy comes a month after the US government “upended decades of recommendations by touting consumption of red meat and full-fat dairy”, it noted. 
  • COURTING DISASTER: India’s top green court accepted the findings of a committee that “found no flaws” in greenlighting the Great Nicobar project that “will lead to the felling of a million trees” and translocating corals, reported Mongabay. The court found “no good ground to interfere”, despite “threats to a globally unique biodiversity hotspot” and Indigenous tribes at risk of displacement by the project, wrote Frontline.
  • FISH FALLING: A new study found that fish biomass is “falling by 7.2% from as little as 0.1C of warming per decade”, noted the Guardian. While experts also pointed to the role of overfishing in marine life loss, marine ecologist and study lead author Dr Shahar Chaikin told the outlet: “Our research proves exactly what that biological cost [of warming] looks like underwater.” 
  • TOO HOT FOR COFFEE: According to new analysis by Climate Central, countries where coffee beans are grown “are becoming too hot to cultivate them”, reported the Guardian. The world’s top five coffee-growing countries faced “57 additional days of coffee-harming heat” annually because of climate change, it added.

Spotlight

Nature talks inch forward

This week, Carbon Brief covers the latest round of negotiations under the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which occurred in Rome over 16-19 February.

The penultimate set of biodiversity negotiations before October’s Conference of the Parties ended in Rome last week, leaving plenty of unfinished business.

The CBD’s subsidiary body on implementation (SBI) met in the Italian capital for four days to discuss a range of issues, including biodiversity finance and reviewing progress towards the nature targets agreed under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF).

However, many of the major sticking points – particularly around finance – will have to wait until later this summer, leaving some observers worried about the capacity for delegates to get through a packed agenda at COP17.

The SBI, along with the subsidiary body on scientific, technical and technological advice (SBSTTA) will both meet in Nairobi, Kenya, later this summer for a final round of talks before COP17 kicks off in Yerevan, Armenia, on 19 October.

Money talks

Finance for nature has long been a sticking point at negotiations under the CBD.

Discussions on a new fund for biodiversity derailed biodiversity talks in Cali, Colombia, in autumn 2024, requiring resumed talks a few months later.

Despite this, finance was barely on the agenda at the SBI meetings in Rome. Delegates discussed three studies on the relationship between debt sustainability and implementation of nature plans, but the more substantive talks are set to take place at the next SBI meeting in Nairobi.

Several parties “highlighted concerns with the imbalance of work” on finance between these SBI talks and the next ones, reported Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB).

Lim Li Ching, senior researcher at Third World Network, noted that tensions around finance permeated every aspect of the talks. She told Carbon Brief:

“If you’re talking about the gender plan of action – if there’s little or no financial resources provided to actually put it into practice and implement it, then it’s [just] paper, right? Same with the reporting requirements and obligations.”

Monitoring and reporting

Closely linked to the issue of finance is the obligations of parties to report on their progress towards the goals and targets of the GBF.

Parties do so through the submission of national reports.

Several parties at the talks pointed to a lack of timely funding for driving delays in their reporting, according to ENB.

A note released by the CBD Secretariat in December said that no parties had submitted their national reports yet; by the time of the SBI meetings, only the EU had. It further noted that just 58 parties had submitted their national biodiversity plans, which were initially meant to be published by COP16, in October 2024.

Linda Krueger, director of biodiversity and infrastructure policy at the environmental not-for-profit Nature Conservancy, told Carbon Brief that despite the sparse submissions, parties are “very focused on the national report preparation”. She added:

“Everybody wants to be able to show that we’re on the path and that there still is a pathway to getting to 2030 that’s positive and largely in the right direction.”

Watch, read, listen

NET LOSS: Nigeria’s marine life is being “threatened” by “ghost gear” – nets and other fishing equipment discarded in the ocean – said Dialogue Earth.

COMEBACK CAUSALITY: A Vox long-read looked at whether Costa Rica’s “payments for ecosystem services” programme helped the country turn a corner on deforestation.

HOMEGROWN GOALS: A Straits Times podcast discussed whether import-dependent Singapore can afford to shelve its goal to produce 30% of its food locally by 2030.

‘RUSTING’ RIVERS: The Financial Times took a closer look at a “strange new force blighting the [Arctic] landscape”: rivers turning rust-orange due to global warming.

New science

  • Lakes in the Congo Basin’s peatlands are releasing carbon that is thousands of years old | Nature Geoscience
  • Natural non-forest ecosystems – such as grasslands and marshlands – were converted for agriculture at four times the rate of land with tree cover between 2005 and 2020 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Around one-quarter of global tree-cover loss over 2001-22 was driven by cropland expansion, pastures and forest plantations for commodity production | Nature Food

In the diary

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz.
Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

The post Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Cropped 25 February 2026: Food inflation strikes | El Niño looms | Biodiversity talks stagnate

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Climate Change

Battery passport plan aims to clean up the industry powering clean energy

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For millions of consumers, the sustainability scheme stickers found on everything from bananas to chocolate bars and wooden furniture are a way to choose products that are greener and more ethical than some of the alternatives.

Inga Petersen, executive director of the Global Battery Alliance (GBA), is on a mission to create a similar scheme for one of the building blocks of the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy systems: batteries.

“Right now, it’s a race to the bottom for whoever makes the cheapest battery,” Petersen told Climate Home News in an interview.

The GBA is working with industry, international organisations, NGOs and governments to establish a sustainable and transparent battery value chain by 2030.

“One of the things we’re trying to do is to create a marketplace where products can compete on elements other than price,” Petersen said.

Under the GBA’s plan, digital product passports and traceability would be used to issue product-level sustainability certifications, similar to those commonplace in other sectors such as forestry, Petersen said.

Managing battery boom’s risks

Over the past decade, battery deployment has increased 20-fold, driven by record-breaking electric vehicle (EV) sales and a booming market for batteries to store intermittent renewable energy.

Falling prices have been instrumental to the rapid expansion of the battery market. But the breakneck pace of growth has exposed the potential environmental and social harms associated with unregulated battery production.

From South America to Zimbabwe and Indonesia, mineral extraction and refining has led to social conflict, environmental damage, human rights violations and deforestation. In Indonesia, the nickel industry is powered by coal while in Europe, production plants have been met with strong local opposition over pollution concerns.

“We cannot manage these risks if we don’t have transparency,” Petersen said.

    The GBA was established in 2017 in response to concerns about the battery industry’s impact as demand was forecast to boom and reports of child labour in the cobalt mines of the Democratic Republic of the Congo made headlines.

    The alliance’s initial 19 members recognised that the industry needed to scale rapidly but with “social, environmental and governance guardrails”, said Petersen, who previously worked with the UN Environment Programme to develop guiding principles to minimise the environmental impact of mining.

    A blonde woman wearing a head set sits with her legged crossed during an event at the World Economic Forum
    Inga Petersen, executive director of the Global Battery Alliance, speaking at a conference in Dalian, China, in June 2024 (Photo: World Economic Forum/Ciaran McCrickard) 

    Digital battery passport

    Today, the alliance is working to develop a global certification scheme that will recognise batteries that meet minimum thresholds across a set of environmental, social and governance benchmarks it has defined along the entire value chain.

    Participating mines, manufacturing plants and recycling facilities will have to provide data for their greenhouse gas emissions as well as how they perform against benchmarks for assessing biodiversity loss, pollution, child and forced labour, community impacts and respect for the rights of Indigenous peoples, for example.

    The data will be independently verified, scored, aggregated and recorded on a battery passport – a digital record of the battery’s composition, which will include the origin of its raw materials and its performance against the GBA’s sustainability benchmarks

    The scheme is due to launch in 2027.

    A carrot and a stick

    Since the start of the year, some of the world’s largest battery companies have been voluntarily participating in the biggest pilot of the scheme to date.

    More than 30 companies across the EV battery and stationary storage supply chains are involved, among them Chinese battery giants CATL and BYD subsidiary FinDreams Battery, miner Rio Tinto, battery producers Samsung SDI and Siemens, automotive supplier Denso and Tesla.

    Petersen said she was “thrilled” about support for the scheme. Amid a growing pushback against sustainability rules and standards, “these companies are stepping up to send a public signal that they are still committed to a sustainable and responsible battery value chain,” she said.

    A slide deck of the consortia and companies involved in the Global Battery Alliance pilot scheme
    The companies taking part in the Global Battery Alliance’s latest battery passport pilot scheme (Credit: Global Battery Alliance)

    There are other motivations for battery producers to know where components in their batteries have come from and whether they have been produced responsibly.

    In 2023, the EU adopted a law regulating the batteries sold on its market.

    From 2027, it mandates all batteries to meet environmental and safety criteria and to have a digital passport accessed via a QR code that contains information about the battery’s composition, its carbon footprint and its recycling content.

    The GBA certification is not intended as a compliance instrument for the EU law but it will “add a carrot” by recognising manufacturers that go beyond meeting the bloc’s rules on nature and human rights, Petersen said.

    Raising standards in complex supply chain

    But challenges remain, in part due to the complexity of battery supply chains.

    In the case of timber, “you have a single input material but then you have a very complex range of end products. For batteries, it’s almost the reverse,” Petersen said.

    The GBA wants its certification scheme to cover all critical minerals present in batteries, covering dozens of different mining, processing and manufacturing processes and hundreds of facilities.

    “One of the biggest impacts will be rewarding the leading performers through preferential access to capital, for example, with investors choosing companies that are managing their risk responsibly and transparently,” Petersen said.

      It could help influence public procurement and how companies, such as EV makers, choose their suppliers, she added. End consumers will also be able to access a summary of the GBA’s scores when deciding which product to buy.

      US, Europe rush to build battery supply chain

      Today, the GBA has more than 150 members across the battery value chain, including more than 50 companies, of which over a dozen are Chinese firms.

      China produces over three-quarters of batteries sold globally and it dominates the world’s battery recycling capacity, leaving the US and Europe scrambling to reduce their dependence on Beijing by building their own battery supply chains.

      Petersen hopes the alliance’s work can help build trust in the sector amid heightened geopolitical tensions. “People want to know where the materials are coming from and which actors are involved,” she said.

      At the same time, companies increasingly recognise that failing to manage sustainability risks can threaten their operations. Protests over environmental concerns have shut down mines and battery factories across the world.

       “Most companies know that and that’s why they’re making these efforts,” Petersen added.

      The post Battery passport plan aims to clean up the industry powering clean energy appeared first on Climate Home News.

      Battery passport plan aims to clean up the industry powering clean energy

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      Reheating plastic food containers: what science says about microplastics and chemicals in ready meals

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      How often do you eat takeaway food? What about pre-prepared ready meals? Or maybe just microwaving some leftovers you had in the fridge? In any of these cases, there’s a pretty good chance the container was made out of plastic. Considering that they can be an extremely affordable option, are there any potential downsides we need to be aware of? We decided to investigate.

      Scientific research increasingly shows that heating food in plastic packaging can release microplastics and plastic chemicals into the food we eat. A new Greenpeace International review of peer-reviewed studies finds that microwaving plastic food containers significantly increases this release, raising concerns about long-term human health impacts. This article summarises what the science says, what remains uncertain, and what needs to change.

      There’s no shortage of research showing how microplastics and nanoplastics have made their way throughout the environment, from snowy mountaintops and Arctic ice, into the beetles, slugs, snails and earthworms at the bottom of the food chain. It’s a similar story with humans, with microplastics found in blood, placenta, lungs, liver and plenty of other places. On top of this, there’s some 16,000 chemicals known to be either present or used in plastic, with a bit over a quarter of those chemicals already identified as being of concern. And there are already just under 1,400 chemicals that have been found in people.

      Not just food packaging, but plenty of household items either contain or are made from plastic, meaning they potentially could be a source of exposure as well. So if microplastics and chemicals are everywhere (including inside us), how are they getting there? Should we be concerned that a lot of our food is packaged in plastic?

      Ready meals, takeaway containers and plastic packaging can release microplastics and toxic chemicals into our food.

      Greenpeace analysis of 24 articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals found that the plastics we use to package our food are directly risking our health.

      Heating food in plastic packaging dramatically increases the levels of microplastics and chemicals that leach into our food.

      © Jack Taylor Gotch / Greenpeac

      Plastic food packaging: the good, the bad, and the ugly

      The growing trend towards ready meals, online shopping and restaurant delivery, and away from home-prepared meals and individual grocery shopping, is happening in every region of the world. Since the first microwaveable TV dinners were introduced in the US in the 1950s to sell off excess stock of turkey meat after Thanksgiving holidays, pre-packaged ready meals have grown hugely in sales. The global market is worth $190bn in 2025, and is expected to reach a total volume of 71.5 million tonnes by 2030. It’s also predicted that the top five global markets for convenience food (China, USA, Japan, Mexico and Russia) will remain relatively unchanged up to 2030, with the most revenue in 2019 generated by the North America region.

      A new report from Greenpeace International set out to analyse articles in peer-reviewed, scientific journals to look at what exactly the research has to say about plastic food packaging and food contact plastics.

      Here’s what we found.

      Our review of 24 recent articles highlights a consistent picture that regulators, businesses and

      consumers should be concerned about: when food is packaged in plastic and then microwaved, this significantly increases the risk of both microplastic and chemical release, and that these microplastics and chemicals will leach into the food inside the packaging.

      And not just some, but a lot of microplastics and chemicals.

      When polystyrene and polypropylene containers filled with water were microwaved after being stored in the fridge or freezer, one study found they released anywhere between 100,000-260,000 microplastic particles, and another found that five minutes of microwave heating could release between 326,000-534,000 particles into food.

      Similarly there are a wide range of chemicals that can be and are released when plastic is heated. Across different plastic types, there are estimated to be around 16,000 different chemicals that can either be used or present in plastics, and of these around 4,200 are identified as being hazardous, whilst many others lack any form of identification (hazardous or otherwise) at all.

      The research also showed that 1,396 food contact plastic chemicals have been found in humans, several of which are known to be hazardous to human health. At the same time, there are many chemicals for which no research into the long-term effects on human health exists.

      Ultimately, we are left with evidence pointing towards increased release of microplastics and plastic chemicals into food from heating, the regular migration of microplastics and chemicals into food, and concerns around what long-term impacts these substances have on human health, which range from uncertain to identified harm.

      Illustrated diagram showing how heating food in plastic containers releases microplastics, nanoplastics and chemicals into food. The graphic lists common plastic types used in food containers, including PET, HDPE, PVC, LDPE, PP, PS and other plastics. It shows food being heated in ovens and microwaves in containers labelled “oven safe” and “microwave safe”. Arrows lead from heated food to a cutaway of a plastic container filled with coloured particles, representing microplastics, nanoplastics and chemical additives migrating from the plastic into food.
      Heating food in plastic containers, even those labelled “microwave safe” or “oven safe”, can release microplastics, nanoplastics and toxic chemicals into our meals. From ready meals to leftovers, common plastics like PET, PP and PS break down under heat, contaminating food we eat every day. This visual explains how plastic packaging turns heat into hidden exposure. © William Morris-Julien / Greenpeace 

      The known unknowns of plastic chemicals and microplastics

      The problem here (aside from the fact that plastic chemicals are routinely migrating into our food), is that often we don’t have any clear research or information on what long-term impacts these chemicals have on human health. This is true of both the chemicals deliberately used in plastic production (some of which are absolutely toxic, like antimony which is used to make PET plastic), as well as in what’s called non-intentionally added substances (NIAS).

      NIAS refers to chemicals which have been found in plastic, and typically originate as impurities, reaction by-products, or can even form later when meals are heated. One study found that a UV stabiliser plastic additive reacted with potato starch when microwaved to create a previously unknown chemical compound.

      We’ve been here before: lessons from tobacco, asbestos and lead

      Although none of this sounds particularly great, this is not without precedence. Between what we do and don’t know, waiting for perfect evidence is costly both economically and in terms of human health. With tobacco, asbestos, and lead, a similar story to what we’re seeing now has played out before. After initial evidence suggesting problems and toxicity, lobbyists from these industries pushed back to sow doubt about the scientific validity of the findings, delaying meaningful action. And all the while, between 1950-2000, tobacco alone led to the deaths of around 60 million people. Whilst distinguishing between correlation and causation, and finding proper evidence is certainly important, it’s also important to take preventative action early, rather than wait for more people to be hurt in order to definitively prove the point.

      Where to from here?

      This is where adopting the precautionary principle comes in. This means shifting the burden of proof away from consumers and everyone else to prove that a product is definitely harmful (e.g. it’s definitely this particular plastic that caused this particular problem), and onto the manufacturer to prove that their product is definitely safe. This is not a new idea, and plenty of examples of this exist already, such as the EU’s REACH regulation, which is centred around the idea of “no data, no market” – manufacturers are obligated to provide data demonstrating the safety of their product in order to be sold.

      Ready meals, takeaway containers and plastic packaging can release microplastics and toxic chemicals into our food.

      Greenpeace analysis of 24 articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals found that the plastics we use to package our food are directly risking our health.

      Heating food in plastic packaging dramatically increases the levels of microplastics and chemicals that leach into our food.

      © Jack Taylor Gotch / Greenpeac

      But as it stands currently, the precautionary principle isn’t applied to plastics. For REACH in particular, plastics are assessed on a risk-based approach, which means that, as the plastic industry itself has pointed out, something can be identified as being extremely hazardous, but is still allowed to be used in production if the leached chemical stays below “safe” levels, despite that for some chemicals a “safe” low dose is either undefined, unknown, or doesn’t exist.

      A better path forward

      Governments aren’t acting fast enough to reduce our exposure and protect our health. There’s no shortage of things we can do to improve this situation. The most critical one is to make and consume less plastic. This is a global problem that requires a strong Global Plastics Treaty that reduces global plastic production by at least 75% by 2040 and eliminates harmful plastics and chemicals. And it’s time that corporations take this growing threat to their customers’ health seriously, starting with their food packaging and food contact products. Here are a number of specific actions policymakers and companies can take, and helpful hints for consumers.

      Policymakers & companies

      • Implement the precautionary principle:
        • For policymakers – Stop the use of hazardous plastics and chemicals, on the basis of their intrinsic risk, rather than an assessment of “safe” levels of exposure.
        • For companies – Commit to ensure that there is a “zero release” of microplastics and hazardous chemicals from packaging into food, alongside an Action Plan with milestones to achieve this by 2035
      • Stop giving false assurances to consumers about “microwave safe” containers
      • Stop the use of single-use and plastic packaging, and implement policies and incentives to foster the uptake of reuse systems and non-toxic packaging alternatives.

      Consumers

      • Encourage your local supermarkets and shops to shift away from plastic where possible
      • Avoid using plastic containers when heating/reheating food
      • Use non-plastic refill containers

      Trying to dodge plastic can be exhausting. If you’re feeling overwhelmed, you’re not alone. We can only do so much in this broken plastic-obsessed system. Plastic producers and polluters need to be held accountable, and governments need to act faster to protect the health of people and the planet. We urgently need global governments to accelerate a justice-centred transition to a healthier, reuse-based, zero-waste future. Ensure your government doesn’t waste this once-in-a-generation opportunity to end the age of plastic.

      Reheating plastic food containers: what science says about microplastics and chemicals in ready meals

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