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2024年对中国的能源和气候发展而言是重要的一年。二氧化碳(CO2)排放量增长全年都徘徊在2023年水平附近,这使得中国在2030年前实现碳达峰的可能性增加。

中国可再生能源的快速发展将煤电占比推至历史最低水平,同时全国碳市场覆盖的行业范围也进一步扩大。

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在全球层面,中国在阿塞拜疆巴库举办的COP29联合国气候谈判上发挥了重要作用。然而,由于中美贸易关系日趋紧张,此前给全球气候行动带来希望的两国合作受到威胁。

在即将上任的特朗普政府的领导下,美国在气候谈判中的影响力预计将减弱,因此中国在气候雄心方面的表态——例如其计划在2025年发布的国际气候承诺——将成为决定国内外脱碳进程速度的重要因素。

Carbon Brief向10位顶尖专家询问了他们对中国未来一年的期待。他们的回答已经过编辑,以保证简洁明了。

杨木易博士(Dr Muyi Yang)

Ember高级电力政策分析师

2025年,中国需要在保持经济增长与推进脱碳议程之间找到微妙的平衡。要实现这一平衡,不仅需要扩大风能、太阳能和储能等可再生能源的规模,还需要对长期以来在中国能源安全和经济活动中占据核心地位的煤电进行重大转型。

这不仅仅是关闭少数几家燃煤电厂那么简单,而是要处理好煤电生态系统衰退所带来的更广泛的紧张关系和冲突。这些影响将波及电企、物流公司、采矿企业、设备制造商以及煤化工行业,以及围绕它们建立的社会经济体系。

随着中国临近关键的转折点——预计在2026年开始的“十五五规划”内实现煤炭消费的绝对减少——中国现在就需开始为这一转型进行规划。在维护经济稳定、确保能源安全和履行气候承诺的同时,成功驾驭这一复杂过程将是中国在2025年及以后取得成功的关键。

林伯强教授(Prof Boqiang Lin)

中国能源政策研究院院长

2025年,中国能源和气候发展的重点是通过几项关键举措推进“双碳”目标。“新能源”的部署将加速,海上风电、分布式光伏和分散式风电预计将显著增长。新增风电和光伏装机容量预计将至少达到200GW。(去年新增装机超过300GW)。核电将稳步推进,预计到2025年底,核电运行装机容量将达到65GW。同时,促进“煤炭清洁高效利用”工作也将取得进展,更清洁和灵活的煤电系统将继续支持风电和光伏的快速增长。

储能技术和智能电网将进一步扩展,从而促进可再生能源的大规模并网,而虚拟电厂和大规模车网互动试点的发展也将提升电网效率与能源交互能力。电动汽车(EV)配套基础设施将受到更多关注,以支持电动汽车普及率的快速提高。碳市场有望扩大到更多领域,碳价格也将逐步提高。

姚喆(Zhe Yao)

绿色和平东亚分部全球政策顾问

今年将是一个重要的里程碑。作为“十四五规划”的最后一年,我们将看到中国能否回到实现既定能源和碳强度目标的轨道上来。中国未来十年的气候计划(即新的国家自主贡献)也将发布,其雄心也将接受考验。

这也是我们或可确认中国能源消费结构转变的一年,其标志着碳达峰是否到来。这一趋势的关键指标是可再生能源能否满足所有新增电力需求。

一个更为严峻的考验是,气候方面的当务之急能否以及如何应对地缘政治的挑战。中国将面对白宫易主,以及来自欧盟在清洁产业领域日益激烈的竞争,因此中国与其传统气候伙伴之间的关系需要重塑。希望到2025年,新的气候伙伴关系能够适应不断变化的经济和地缘政治环境。

陈志斌(Zhibin Chen)

阿德菲(Adelphi)碳市场与定价高级经理

展望2025年,我认为中国碳市场的发展在几个方面大有可为。其中包括:

  • 显著扩大全国碳排放权交易市场(ETS)的覆盖范围,正式纳入钢铁、水泥和铝行业;
  • 在自愿碳市场上启动中国核证自愿减排量(CCER)证书的签发、交易和使用,以履行合规义务;
  • 转变全国碳排放权交易市场结构,使其从基于(生产单位排放)强度的限额转变为基于总量(以二氧化碳吨数计)的绝对限额;
  • 允许交易员和投资者参与全国碳排放权交易市场中的碳排放配额(CEA)交易。

其中,前两点几乎可以确定将在2025年实现,我希望其能顺利实施。后两点已被生态环境部的政策制定者提及,我希望政府能为其制定明确的时间表和实施路线图。

麦怡瑞(Dr Ilaria Mazzocco)

战略与国际研究中心中国商业与经济理事会主席、高级研究员

我关注的是中国如何应对日益紧张的对外商业关系,以及国际上对中国海外直接投资需求的增长。清洁技术——尤其是太阳能、锂电池和电动汽车这“新三样”——处于这些紧张关系的核心。

围绕气候技术制造和贸易未来的全球竞争正在酝酿,而这在很大程度上取决于中国产业的发展,包括国内需求和中国企业的盈利能力。同样重要的是,包括美国在内的中国的贸易伙伴(在未来的对华政策中)将倾向于何种类型的权衡和交易。

陈凯欣(Kyle Chan)

普林斯顿大学博士后研究员

2025年将是中国电动汽车发展的关键一年。中国国内市场的激烈竞争将进一步压低价格,激励先进驾驶辅助系统等功能上的创新,并使中国继续从燃油车向电车过渡。值得关注的是,中国出现的趋势是否会成为全球趋势的先兆,比如增程式(混合动力)电动车的流行和电池更换技术的改进。

在国际市场,中国的电动车和电池制造商正在开拓新市场,并通过在欧洲和东南亚等地大规模投资海外工厂来应对不断上升的贸易壁垒。一个重大问题是,这些投资能否得到回报,或这些市场的电动车需求是否会因当地充电基础设施不足等其他因素而受到制约。另一个关键问题是,其他国家将在多大程度上选择融入中国的电动车供应链,亦或尝试在中国周围建立供应链。

徐安琪博士(Dr Angel Hsu)

北卡罗来纳大学公共政策、环境、生态与能源副教授

我对中美在气候与能源政策上继续开展次国家层面合作的前景充满期待,尤其是两国在COP29上表现出强烈的兴趣。华盛顿州与中国代表团之间的多次技术交流等……都是令人鼓舞的发展。在过去一年所取得进展的基础上,我们已经制定了将这一对话持续到2025年的计划。

我尤其关注第三方国家和地区能否作为中立平台促进合作。例如,随着美国可能退出气候合作,中方与东盟的合作机会显著增加。中国在COP29上的积极行动,尤其是其在自愿气候融资方面的努力,使其有望在支持东南亚国家脱碳方面发挥领导作用,为区域可持续发展创造双赢局面。

弗朗顿·齐耶穆拉博士(Dr Frangton Chiyemura)

英国开放大学国际发展教育讲师

2025年,中国在能源和气候方面的若干发展值得关注。国务院在2024年设定了新目标,标志着中国朝2060年实现碳中和这一更广泛目标迈出重要一步。

这些国内政策正在影响中国的国际投资。我们可以预见,中国将加大在全球南方的小规模可再生能源项目的投资,这反映了其自身在可再生能源发展中的经验。

这一战略还包括加强与富含能源转型所需重要矿产的国家的合作,尤其是非洲国家。2025年1月,中国外长王毅展开了自2013年以来对非洲的第57次访问。他访问了乍得、刚果共和国、纳米比亚和尼日利亚,突显了这一重点,这些国家都拥有丰富的能源转型所需的矿产资源。

总体而言,这些进展表明中国正在全球气候行动和能源转型中,扮演更积极的领导角色。

刘爽(Shuang Liu)

世界资源研究所中国金融项目主任

随着在巴库举行的COP29会议设定了“新气候融资集体量化目标”,中国可通过南南合作,继续支持发展中国家的低碳和韧性转型。我们的研究显示,中国已是气候融资的重要提供者,2013年至2022年间年均提供近45亿美元。

数据显示,疫情后中国在海外的气候融资有所下降,但在过去三年一直在缓慢回升。未来气候融资增长的一个重要驱动力可能是中国及其利益相关方在发展中国家清洁能源转型中的持续投资。最近的一个例子是,在印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃·苏比安托(Prabowo Subianto)去年11月访问北京期间,中国和印尼签署了关于清洁能源生产和基础设施的协议。这类合作有助于能源转型,创造更多就业机会,并有助于全球南方实现其他可持续发展目标。

王珂礼(Dr Christoph Nedopil)

亚格里菲斯大学亚洲研究中心主任、经济学教授

2025年,在伙伴国日益增长的能源转型需求的驱动下,中国在绿色能源领域的参与可能通过“一带一路”倡议进一步发展。例如,印尼总统普拉博沃在2024年12月的G20会议上宣布加速绿色能源计划,并与中国签署新协议,突显了(与中国的)针对性合作在解决本地能源的优先事项方面的作用。这不仅包括对可再生能源的投资,还涉及电池制造等关键技术。

我也希望在以下三方面取得进展:一是加速低碳能源投资的同时逐步减少化石燃料投资;二是让本地员工更多地从绿色能源转型中获益,尤其是在西方对中国绿色科技产品实施更多贸易限制的情况下;三是如何在“一带一路”倡议中加快工业和自备能源的绿色转型。未来几年的一个特别之机是与亚洲其他许多能源国企分享中国国企在电力行业的经验教训。

The post 专家:中国2025年能源与气候行动将有哪些期待? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

专家:中国2025年能源与气候行动将有哪些期待?

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Toxic Beauty: Black Women Most at Risk from Harmful Chemicals in Unregulated Hair Products

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Hair extensions used primarily by Black women contain a “shocking” range of dangerous chemicals, including breast carcinogens, new research shows.

Elissia Franklin is an analytical chemist with an infectious laugh, a penchant for braided hair extensions and a fierce commitment to reducing health disparities for Black women. Growing up on Chicago’s South Side, she saw firsthand the systemic barriers Black women face and resolved to help her community benefit from all she learned as she pursued her career as a chemist.

Toxic Beauty: Black Women Most at Risk From Harmful Chemicals in Unregulated Hair Products

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Climate Resilience as an Act of Self-Determination

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Across these lands, First Nations are not simply responding to climate change; they are expressing a profound act of self-determination. Investing in resilience is not just about reducing risk or protecting infrastructure; it is about renewing relationships with land, water, plants, animals, and elements as the primary teachers of how to live, adapt, and thrive in a rapidly changing world.

For Indigenous communities, resilience is inseparable from identity, language, law, and governance. It is a way of saying: We will define our own adaptation, guided by the natural laws that have sustained life here for millennia.

Learning from Nature’s Long History of Change

Climate change is often described as novel or purely human-made. While industrial activity has unquestionably accelerated, the Earth’s climate has always been in motion. Over millennia, warming, cooling, flooding, and fire have continuously reshaped life. In these cycles, nature teaches a hard truth: some species perish, others adapt. Those that survive don’t just endure; they reorganize, forge new relationships, and sometimes emerge more resilient and diverse than before.

Indigenous Peoples have observed and lived within these adaptive processes for thousands of years. By watching how plants root deeper, how animals shift migration patterns, and how waters carve new paths, communities learn what authentic adaptation means. Adaptation is not an optional add-on; it is a law of life.

More-than-Human Teachers of Autonomy

Indigenous law and lifeways are rooted in the more-than-human world. Languages carry the verbs and metaphors of specific territories, while hunting, fishing, harvesting, and ceremony express ecological kinship.

From this perspective:

  • Plants teach patience, rootedness, and collective defence.
  • Animals show mobility, alertness, and cooperation.
  • Waters’ model persistence and the quiet strength of flow.
  • Fire and wind remind us of transformation and the limits of control.

These beings are not “resources.” They are teachers. They show that autonomy is not isolation but the capacity to respond to change while remaining in right relationship with the web of life. For many First Nations, this is where self-determination begins in the school of the land, long before it is written into policy.

Climate Change as a Crucible for Renewal

When communities design resilient housing, energy systems, food networks, or water infrastructure, they do more than install technology; they realign human systems with the teachings of their territories. This can mean:

  • Designing community layouts that follow local contours, winds, and wildlife corridors.
  • Adjusting hunting and fishing practices to track shifting species while maintaining reciprocity.
  • Reclaiming fire stewardship to protect habitats and renew ecosystems.
  • Localizing food and energy to reduce reliance on fossil-fuel-heavy supply chains.

Each of these is a form of climate self-determination. The more space, resources, and authority First Nations must shape such models, the more deeply adaptation can take root in long-term relationships with land and water. These shifts are not only technical but also cultural, linguistic, and spiritual. They create the conditions for communities to renew their institutions, habits, and values at the pace the Earth now demands.

Knowledge That Evolves with the Climate

As First Nations engage closely with their territories, monitoring ice, tracking plant cycles, observing wildlife, and watching shorelines, a living record of change emerges. Each project produces two transformations:

  • Infrastructure evolves through new buildings, systems, and practices.
  • Knowledge evolves, deepening understanding of place, risk, and interdependence.

This co-evolution is crucial. Static plans soon fail in a world of accelerating climate disruptions. True resilience relies on the capacity to read the land, interpret signals, and adjust course. When governance is grounded in the agency of the land itself, Indigenous Nations are uniquely positioned to lead this kind of adaptive practice.

From Self-Determination to Shared Sovereignty

When First Nations lead adaptation, they are not only strengthening their own communities, but they are also modelling shared sovereignty rooted in place. Shared sovereignty does not erase difference; it anchors relationships in mutual responsibility.

It rests on three recognitions:

  • Natural laws, those governing water, soil, species, and climate, are the highest laws.
  • Human governance must fit within them, not above them.
  • Nation-to-nation relationships are strongest when grounded in shared duties to land and water.

As First Nations are supported to listen to and act from the authority of land, new possibilities for collaboration and climate justice open. Non-Indigenous societies have much to learn from these approaches, not just techniques, but humility: accepting that humans must adapt to the Earth, not the other way around.

A Path Forward for Climate Justice

Climate change is revealing the brittleness of systems built on extraction and the denial of limits. In contrast, Indigenous climate leadership offers another path, one grounded in relationship with morethanhuman relatives and exercised through responsibility rather than domination.

For readers of the Indigenous Climate Hub, this is an invitation to see resilience not as a technical challenge but as a renewal of connection:

  • Supporting First Nations’ leadership strengthens teachers’ adaptation to lands, waters, and living beings.
  • Investing in Indigenous self-determination invests in knowledge systems that can guide all communities through uncertainty.
  • Embracing shared sovereignty honours natural law and the hope that, by learning from the Earth, humanity can move beyond survival into a state of balance.

In this light, climate change becomes more than a threat; it becomes the crucible through which deeper self-determination, wiser stewardship, and more just relationships among nations are forged.

Blog by Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock

Image Credit : Kenzie Broad, Unsplash

The post Climate Resilience as an Act of Self-Determination appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.

Climate Resilience as an Act of Self-Determination

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An Ecological Finance Future for Indigenous Climate Action

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Federal climate funding for Indigenous communities remains crucial. Yet it is still built on a colonial budgetary logic: Ottawa decides priorities, timelines, and reporting cycles, while lands and waters wait for approvals. Programs that support Indigenous-led monitoring, natural climate solutions, and clean energy are vital lifelines, but they do not yet form a new system. They leave power in the same hands and retain a logic of serving human interests over ecological well-being.

What if the land itself were treated as a primary financial actor?

Imagine an economy where a river, forest, or entire watershed is recognized as a rights-bearing entity with its own ongoing claim to revenue, care, and decision-making. Governments, markets, and communities would relate to ecosystems as partners and “shareholders,” not as resources to be managed or used up. Indigenous Nations whose governance systems have always understood the land as a living relative would guide these relationships and decide how value flows across generations.

This is the foundation of ecological finance: a shift from temporary project grants toward Indigenous-governed, land-anchored systems where ecosystems and Indigenous Peoples are co-beneficiaries with enforceable rights to long-term returns.

From Social to Ecological Finance

Social finance seeks to align capital with social outcomes, such as housing, health, and education, through tools like impact investing and community bonds. Ecological finance goes further: under Indigenous jurisdiction, it treats ecosystems as active participants in the circulation and reinvestment of money.

Core ideas include:

  • · Ecosystems as rights-holders. Territories, forests, and waterways are recognized as having an inherent right to restoration and ongoing support, with a portion of revenues dedicated to them in perpetuity.
  • · Indigenous-governed ecological endowments. Permanent, Indigenous-controlled funds draw from public, philanthropic, and aligned private capital. Earnings sustain guardianship, land planning, youth training, and climate adaptation.
  • · Ecological performance as return. Returns are linked to indicators such as species recovery, water quality, and soil health. Investors “earn” only when ecosystems thrive.

Rather than asking how nature can serve finance, ecological finance asks how finance can serve the land.

How This Touches Daily Life

For ecological finance to matter, it must become part of everyday economic practice, a routine way households and communities contribute to the care of their territories. Examples include:

  • · Community ecological dividends. A share of energy bills, transit fares, or tourism fees automatically supports Indigenous-governed ecosystem funds tied to the territories that sustain that infrastructure.
  • · Indigenous equity in green infrastructure. Renewable projects and conservation areas are co-owned by Indigenous Nations, with dividends flowing first to ecosystem restoration and community well-being.
  • · Every day regenerative consumption. Consumers opt into “ecological tithe” pricing, where a small portion of each purchase supports Indigenous-led restoration where goods originate or are consumed.

In each case, transactions become acts of relationship with specific lands and waters, guided by Indigenous laws and responsibilities.

Financial Models from a New Paradigm

Emerging mechanisms already hint at what ecological finance could become:

  • · Indigenous Project Finance for Permanence (PFP). One-time capital raises create enduring funds for Indigenous-led conservation, releasing earnings as long-term governance conditions are met.
  • · Indigenous Impact Bonds. Investors provide capital for restoration or adaptation; repayment occurs only when Indigenous-defined ecological outcomes are achieved, with a share flowing to permanent ecosystem care.
  • · Ecological Sovereign Wealth Funds. Resource revenues and settlements seed Indigenous-governed endowments. Only sustainable returns are drawn each year, turning extractive flows into intergenerational wealth.
  • · Shared-prosperity cooperatives. Clean energy and other green assets are co-owned by Indigenous Nations and communities, prioritizing restoration, local livelihoods, and equitable returns.

These approaches don’t abolish finance but redesign who holds value claims, moving ecosystems and Indigenous Nations from the margins of the balance sheet to its center.

Shared Prosperity Beyond Capitalism as Usual

In this context, prosperity is not defined by GDP or job counts but by clean water, thriving territories, revived languages, and lower climate vulnerability. The integrity of relationships within the web of life measures wealth.

By design, ecological finance redistributes capital toward damaged ecosystems and historically marginalized communities. Indigenous laws of reciprocity and responsibility offer ethical guidance for that redistribution grounded in consent and obligations to more-than-human kin.

Global Participation Without Extraction

This vision welcomes global participation but on non-extractive terms. Philanthropy, public institutions, and investors can contribute to Indigenous-governed funds under capped returns and long horizons, recognizing that decisions about lands, benefits, and stewardship belong to Indigenous Nations. Financial institutions can embed Indigenous rights and co-governance into climate strategies, treating Indigenous Peoples as co-architects of just transition pathways rather than peripheral stakeholders.

A New Form of Stewardship

Ecological finance is not a utopia. It acknowledges deep inequities while working to rebalance them through redesigned financial systems. For Indigenous communities and Nations, the invitation is to keep designing models grounded in Indigenous law and ecological ethics.

For governments, institutions, and everyday Canadians, it is time to move beyond line-item funding and support Indigenous-centered, land-governed finance that gives nature a voice and a share. If the

environment is to shape its own future, then finance must learn to listen, and ecological finance is one way of turning that listening into sustained, intergenerational action.

Blog by Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock

Image Credit : Ardian Pranomo, Unsplash

The post An Ecological Finance Future for Indigenous Climate Action appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.

An Ecological Finance Future for Indigenous Climate Action

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