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新研究显示,中国来自农业机械的碳排放快速增长,可能会“阻碍”该国实现净零排放的目标。

这项发表在《自然-食品》(Nature Food)期刊上的研究发现,自1985年以来,中国农业机械CO2(二氧化碳)排放量增加了大约七倍。

研究人员利用政府发布的不同时期农机数量统计数据,计算了1985年至2020年期间CO2排放量及其他空气污染物的变化。

他们发现,自1985年以来,农业机械的CO2排放量平均每年增长近6%。

研究指出,按照中国实现2060年净零排放目标的路径,若农业机械化程度按“预期趋势”继续提升,其相关排放在2050年可能占中国总排放量的21%。

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作者表示,这可能会使中国实现减排目标更加困难,并导致空气质量“恶化”。

然而,研究还发现,如果广泛采用由可再生能源驱动的农业机械,有望减少65%至70%的相关排放。

一位未参与该研究的专家对Carbon Brief表示,尽管该研究“具有价值”,但农业机械不太可能在总排放量中占到如此高的比例。

“如果中国在减少其他排放源方面取得了快速进展……那么我预计在农业机械的脱碳方面也会取得显著成效。”她说。

农机相关排放

粮食系统大约占人类温室气体排放的三分之一。

这一数字涵盖了与粮食生产相关的所有排放——从因森林砍伐或土地使用变化导致的排放,到奶牛打嗝或粪便释放的甲烷。

这项新研究的数据来自《中国统计年鉴》,后者提供了各种社会经济指标的年度统计数据。研究者从中提取了中国农业机械的数量与功率、机械所用的燃料属性、耕地面积、人口等信息。

除了CO2排放量外,研究者还计算了三种与农业机械相关的空气污染物排放量:PM2.5(细颗粒物)、NOx(氮氧化物)和THC(总烃)。

研究者将农业机械分为四类:小型拖拉机、大型拖拉机、田间管理机械和收割机械。然后,他们计算了每类机械在每一年的CO2、PM2.5、NOx和THC排放量。

下图展示了1985年至2020年研究期间的CO2排放量。图中柱状表示不同类型农业机械的排放量:收割机械(浅蓝色)、田间管理机械(粉色)、小型拖拉机(浅绿色)和大型拖拉机(深绿色)。

Annual emissions of CO2 from farm machinery over 1985-2020. The colours indicate the type of machinery responsible for the emissions: small tractors (light green), large tractors (dark green), field-management machinery (pink) and harvesting machinery (light blue). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)

他们发现,农业机械CO2排放总量已从1985年的约23MtCO2(1MtCO2=百万吨二氧化碳),增长到2020年的近160MtCO2,年均增长率为5.7%。

这相当于2020年中国总排放量的约1.5%。虽然比例不高,但作者指出,这一排放量实际上超过了部分国家的年排放总量,如荷兰、菲律宾和尼日利亚。

尤其是,大型拖拉机所带来的排放量自2005年以来平稳增长,作者将此归因于“一系列推动大型机械化的政策”。

未参与该研究的中山大学教授覃章才表示,该研究将农业机械排放从更广泛的食品系统中拆分出来“提供了独特的视角”。覃教授表示,该做法“使政策制定者能够在不影响农业生产力的情况下,设计有针对性的干预措施”。

区域分布

研究者还将排放数据细化到省级层面,发现不同地区农业机械排放量差异很大。排放量最低省份仅有约0.1MtCO2,而排放最高的省份则达到17.5MtCO2。

他们发现,中国东部和东北的五个省份——山东、河南、黑龙江、河北和安徽,占农业机械排放总量的40%以上。这些省份合计拥有全国三分之一的耕地面积和约46%的农机总动力。

然而,即使在这些高排放地区之间,机械类型的构成也存在差异,有些省份更依赖大型拖拉机,有些则以田间管理机械为主。

未参与该研究的《Our World in Data》副主编汉娜·里奇(Hannah Ritchie)博士表示,这种次国家级排放分析是该研究的关键进展之一。

里奇博士解释说:“这种排放估算的空间分辨率极具价值,因为在中国这样幅员辽阔的国家,各地排放差异显著。它还为未来在不同机械化程度和低碳技术采纳率下的潜在排放路径,提供了重要的洞见。”

增长因素

研究人员确定了四个推动排放增加的社会经济因素:人口增长、人均耕地面积变化、机械化水平以及排放强度。

下图展示了由排放强度(深蓝色)、机械化水平(浅蓝色)、人均耕地面积(黄色)和人口(橙色)的变化所导致的CO2排放量变化(黑色)。

Total CO2 emissions (black) for the years 1985, 2000, 2010 and 2020. The emissions are broken down by four contributing factors: changes in emission intensity (dark blue), level of mechanisation (light blue), per-capita cropland area (yellow) and population (orange). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)

论文指出,在这些因素中,机械化水平的提升“主导”了排放变化。仅这些变化就导致1985年至2000年间排放量增加了约100%。

研究指出,人口增长也是研究区间早期农业机械排放量增长的重要驱动力,但自2000年以来,这一因素的影响有所减弱。

相比之下,作者指出,排放强度的上升总体上反而促使排放减少;而“耕作压力”在研究初期推动了排放上升,但自2000年起则转而起到抑制排放的作用。

碳排放目标

作者指出,根据现行政策,中国致力于“到2035年主要农作物生产实现全过程机械化”。

因此,他们警告称,若农业机械化持续增长且未加遏制,可能会对中国实现“双碳”目标构成挑战。(“双碳”目标指的是中国承诺在2030年前实现碳达峰,并在2060年前实现碳中和。)

作者指出,有效减排需在短期和长期分别采取不同策略,并强调从短期可用性来看,“生物燃料和天然气将在未来十年发挥重要作用”。

作者还认为,从长远来看,可再生能源以及绿氢“具有最大的减排潜力”。

此前研究表明,使用自动化设备、电动拖拉机和可再生能源可以减少90%的农业排放。

里奇表示,她“对农业机械的相对(排放量占比)在2050年能达到20%持一定怀疑态度”。

她补充道:“这基于一个假设,即这些排放大多不会减少,而其他大多数行业排放迅速下降。但如果中国在减少其他排放源,包括卡车等更大型的道路运输排放和其他农业排放方面取得快速进展……那么我预计在农业机械的脱碳方面也会取得显著成效。”

The post 中国农机排放量上升或“阻碍”净零目标实现 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/translations-rising-emissions-from-farm-equipment-could-hinder-chinas-net-zero-goals/

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With Love: Living consciously in nature

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I fell flat on my backside one afternoon this January and, weirdly, it made me think of you. Okay, I know that takes a bit of unpacking—so let me go back and start at the beginning.

For the last six years, our family has joined with half a dozen others to spend a week or so up at Wangat Lodge, located on a 50-acre subtropical rainforest property around three hours north of Sydney. The accommodation is pretty basic, with no wifi coverage—so time in Wangat really revolves around the bush. You live by the rhythm of the sun and the rain, with the days punctuated by swimming in the river and walking through the forest.

An intrinsic part of Wangat is Dan, the owner and custodian of the place, and the guide on our walks. He talks about time, place, and care with great enthusiasm, but always tenderly and never with sanctimony. “There is no such thing as ‘the same walk’”, is one of Dan’s refrains, because the way he sees it “every day, there is change in the world around you” of plants, animals, water and weather. Dan speaks of Wangat with such evident love, but not covetousness; it is a lightness which includes gentle consciousness that his own obligations arise only because of the historic dispossession of others. He inspires because of how he is.

One of the highlights this year was a river walk with Dan, during which we paddled or waded through most of the route, with only occasional scrambles up the bank. Sometimes the only sensible option is to swim. Among the life around us, we notice large numbers of tadpoles in the water, which is clean enough to drink. Our own tadpoles, the kids in the group, delight in the expedition. I overhear one of the youngest children declaring that she’s having ‘one of the best days ever’. Dan looks content. Part of his mission is to reintroduce children to nature, so that the soles of their feet may learn from the uneven ground, and their muscles from the cool of the water.

These moments are for thankfulness in the life that lives.

It is at the very end of the walk when I overbalance and fall on my arse—and am reminded of the eternal truth that rocks are hard. As I gingerly get up, my youngest daughter looks at me, caught between amusement and concern, and asks me if I’m okay.

I have to think before answering, because yes, physically I’m fine. But I feel too, an underlying sense of discomfort; it is that omnipresent pressure of existential awareness about the scale of suffering and ecological damage now at large in the world, made so much more immediately acute after Bondi; the dissonance that such horrors can somehow exist simultaneously with this small group being alive and happy in this place, on this earth-kissed afternoon.

How is it okay, to be “okay”? What is it to live with conscience in Wangat? Those of us who still have access to time, space, safety and high levels of volition on this planet carry this duality all the time, as our gift and obligation. It is not an easy thing to make sense of; but for me, it speaks to the question of ‘why Greenpeace’? Because the moral and strategic mission-focus of campaigning provides a principled basis for how each of us can bridge that interminable gulf.

The essence of campaigning is to make the world’s state of crisis legible and actionable, by isolating systemic threats to which we can rise and respond credibly, with resources allocated to activity in accordance with strategy. To be part of Greenpeace, whether as an activist, volunteer supporter or staff member, is to find a home for your worries for the world in confidence and faith that together we have the power to do something about it. Together we meet the confusion of the moment with the light of shared purpose and the confidence of direction.

So, it was as I was getting back up again from my tumble and considering my daughter’s question that I thought of you—with gratitude, and with love–-because we cross this bridge all the time, together, everyday; to face the present and the future.

‘Yes, my love’, I say to my daughter, smiling as I get to my feet, “I’m okay”. And I close my eyes and think of a world in which the fires are out, and everywhere, all tadpoles have the conditions of flourishing to be able to grow peacefully into frogs.

Thank you for being a part of Greenpeace.

With love,

David

With Love: Living consciously in nature

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Without Weighing Costs to Public Health, EPA Rolls Back Air Pollution Standards for Coal Plants

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The federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards for coal and oil-fired power plants were strengthened during the Biden administration.

Last week, when the Environmental Protection Agency finalized its repeal of tightened 2024 air pollution standards for power plants, the agency claimed the rollback would save $670 million.

Without Weighing Costs to Public Health, EPA Rolls Back Air Pollution Standards for Coal Plants

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A Tiny Caribbean Island Sued the Netherlands Over Climate Change, and Won

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The case shows that climate change is a fundamental human rights violation—and the victory of Bonaire, a Dutch territory, could open the door for similar lawsuits globally.

From our collaborating partner Living on Earth, public radio’s environmental news magazine, an interview by Paloma Beltran with Greenpeace Netherlands campaigner Eefje de Kroon.

A Tiny Caribbean Island Sued the Netherlands Over Climate Change, and Won

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