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新研究显示,中国来自农业机械的碳排放快速增长,可能会“阻碍”该国实现净零排放的目标。

这项发表在《自然-食品》(Nature Food)期刊上的研究发现,自1985年以来,中国农业机械CO2(二氧化碳)排放量增加了大约七倍。

研究人员利用政府发布的不同时期农机数量统计数据,计算了1985年至2020年期间CO2排放量及其他空气污染物的变化。

他们发现,自1985年以来,农业机械的CO2排放量平均每年增长近6%。

研究指出,按照中国实现2060年净零排放目标的路径,若农业机械化程度按“预期趋势”继续提升,其相关排放在2050年可能占中国总排放量的21%。

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作者表示,这可能会使中国实现减排目标更加困难,并导致空气质量“恶化”。

然而,研究还发现,如果广泛采用由可再生能源驱动的农业机械,有望减少65%至70%的相关排放。

一位未参与该研究的专家对Carbon Brief表示,尽管该研究“具有价值”,但农业机械不太可能在总排放量中占到如此高的比例。

“如果中国在减少其他排放源方面取得了快速进展……那么我预计在农业机械的脱碳方面也会取得显著成效。”她说。

农机相关排放

粮食系统大约占人类温室气体排放的三分之一。

这一数字涵盖了与粮食生产相关的所有排放——从因森林砍伐或土地使用变化导致的排放,到奶牛打嗝或粪便释放的甲烷。

这项新研究的数据来自《中国统计年鉴》,后者提供了各种社会经济指标的年度统计数据。研究者从中提取了中国农业机械的数量与功率、机械所用的燃料属性、耕地面积、人口等信息。

除了CO2排放量外,研究者还计算了三种与农业机械相关的空气污染物排放量:PM2.5(细颗粒物)、NOx(氮氧化物)和THC(总烃)。

研究者将农业机械分为四类:小型拖拉机、大型拖拉机、田间管理机械和收割机械。然后,他们计算了每类机械在每一年的CO2、PM2.5、NOx和THC排放量。

下图展示了1985年至2020年研究期间的CO2排放量。图中柱状表示不同类型农业机械的排放量:收割机械(浅蓝色)、田间管理机械(粉色)、小型拖拉机(浅绿色)和大型拖拉机(深绿色)。

Annual emissions of CO2 from farm machinery over 1985-2020. The colours indicate the type of machinery responsible for the emissions: small tractors (light green), large tractors (dark green), field-management machinery (pink) and harvesting machinery (light blue). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)

他们发现,农业机械CO2排放总量已从1985年的约23MtCO2(1MtCO2=百万吨二氧化碳),增长到2020年的近160MtCO2,年均增长率为5.7%。

这相当于2020年中国总排放量的约1.5%。虽然比例不高,但作者指出,这一排放量实际上超过了部分国家的年排放总量,如荷兰、菲律宾和尼日利亚。

尤其是,大型拖拉机所带来的排放量自2005年以来平稳增长,作者将此归因于“一系列推动大型机械化的政策”。

未参与该研究的中山大学教授覃章才表示,该研究将农业机械排放从更广泛的食品系统中拆分出来“提供了独特的视角”。覃教授表示,该做法“使政策制定者能够在不影响农业生产力的情况下,设计有针对性的干预措施”。

区域分布

研究者还将排放数据细化到省级层面,发现不同地区农业机械排放量差异很大。排放量最低省份仅有约0.1MtCO2,而排放最高的省份则达到17.5MtCO2。

他们发现,中国东部和东北的五个省份——山东、河南、黑龙江、河北和安徽,占农业机械排放总量的40%以上。这些省份合计拥有全国三分之一的耕地面积和约46%的农机总动力。

然而,即使在这些高排放地区之间,机械类型的构成也存在差异,有些省份更依赖大型拖拉机,有些则以田间管理机械为主。

未参与该研究的《Our World in Data》副主编汉娜·里奇(Hannah Ritchie)博士表示,这种次国家级排放分析是该研究的关键进展之一。

里奇博士解释说:“这种排放估算的空间分辨率极具价值,因为在中国这样幅员辽阔的国家,各地排放差异显著。它还为未来在不同机械化程度和低碳技术采纳率下的潜在排放路径,提供了重要的洞见。”

增长因素

研究人员确定了四个推动排放增加的社会经济因素:人口增长、人均耕地面积变化、机械化水平以及排放强度。

下图展示了由排放强度(深蓝色)、机械化水平(浅蓝色)、人均耕地面积(黄色)和人口(橙色)的变化所导致的CO2排放量变化(黑色)。

Total CO2 emissions (black) for the years 1985, 2000, 2010 and 2020. The emissions are broken down by four contributing factors: changes in emission intensity (dark blue), level of mechanisation (light blue), per-capita cropland area (yellow) and population (orange). Source: Zhuang et al. (2025)

论文指出,在这些因素中,机械化水平的提升“主导”了排放变化。仅这些变化就导致1985年至2000年间排放量增加了约100%。

研究指出,人口增长也是研究区间早期农业机械排放量增长的重要驱动力,但自2000年以来,这一因素的影响有所减弱。

相比之下,作者指出,排放强度的上升总体上反而促使排放减少;而“耕作压力”在研究初期推动了排放上升,但自2000年起则转而起到抑制排放的作用。

碳排放目标

作者指出,根据现行政策,中国致力于“到2035年主要农作物生产实现全过程机械化”。

因此,他们警告称,若农业机械化持续增长且未加遏制,可能会对中国实现“双碳”目标构成挑战。(“双碳”目标指的是中国承诺在2030年前实现碳达峰,并在2060年前实现碳中和。)

作者指出,有效减排需在短期和长期分别采取不同策略,并强调从短期可用性来看,“生物燃料和天然气将在未来十年发挥重要作用”。

作者还认为,从长远来看,可再生能源以及绿氢“具有最大的减排潜力”。

此前研究表明,使用自动化设备、电动拖拉机和可再生能源可以减少90%的农业排放。

里奇表示,她“对农业机械的相对(排放量占比)在2050年能达到20%持一定怀疑态度”。

她补充道:“这基于一个假设,即这些排放大多不会减少,而其他大多数行业排放迅速下降。但如果中国在减少其他排放源,包括卡车等更大型的道路运输排放和其他农业排放方面取得快速进展……那么我预计在农业机械的脱碳方面也会取得显著成效。”

The post 中国农机排放量上升或“阻碍”净零目标实现 appeared first on Carbon Brief.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/translations-rising-emissions-from-farm-equipment-could-hinder-chinas-net-zero-goals/

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Pacific leaders summit highlights dangers of fossil fuel dependence and urgency of energy transition, finance

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PORT VILA, Friday 17 April 2026 — Pacific governments and civil society came together in Vanuatu this week as part of a key regional meeting ahead of the landmark First International Conference for the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, later this month, against the backdrop of a global energy crisis which has seen Pacific Island nations hit especially hard.

The meeting, held from April 13-15, saw a new landmark declaration: The Tassiriki Call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific. Leaders cited the energy crisis as evidence of the dangers of fossil fuel dependence and the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels. The significant climate finance gap was identified as a key constraint to the transition in the region.

The global energy crisis driven by the US and Israel’s illegal war on Iran has raised the stakes for a region that is among the most vulnerable to both climate change but is also one of the most fuel-exposed economies in the world. Many Pacific nations are grappling with fuel shortages that threaten power and basic services due to rising fuel costs, with Tuvalu declaring a 14-day state of emergency.

Shiva Gounden, Head of Pacific at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, who attended the meeting, said: “Never before has the need to end the fossil fuel chokehold been so abundantly clear, as our Pacific communities again suffer the consequences of a global economy hooked on coal, oil and gas.

“It’s always ordinary people who suffer the costs of war — whether innocent civilians killed by bombs, or our communities seeing food and power bills soar, while already bearing the brunt of a cost of living and climate crisis.

“This meeting comes at a critical moment, and was an opportunity for a renewed push for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific. The government leaders and civil society present at the meeting continued to strongly affirm Pacific’s status as a global leader on climate action. Momentum is building ahead of Santa Marta, and as Australia prepares to preside over the next round of international climate negotiations at COP31 in Türkiye, in partnership with the Pacific. 

“Urgent action to transition away from fossil fuels is fundamental to limiting warming to 1.5°C — a survival line for Pacific communities, but also a path of liberation that frees us from expensive, extractive and polluting fossil fuel imports and uplifts our communities. The Pacific has played a vital role in getting to this point, shaping international agreements and holding the line on 1.5°C.

“The phase out of fossil fuels depends on determined international cooperation, particularly when it comes to unlocking the finance needed to support countries and communities with implementing solutions. It is vital the transition is grounded in Pacific knowledge and led by the local communities who live these realities every day.  

“The expansion of fossil fuels is incompatible with a 1.5C-aligned world — Greenpeace Australia Pacific will continue to campaign alongside Pacific nations to fast-track the transition to clean, affordable wind and solar energy, the only solution to the energy crisis we are currently all facing globally.”

-ENDS-

Media contact

Kate O’Callaghan on +61 406 231 892 or kate.ocallaghan@greenpeace.org

Pacific leaders summit highlights dangers of fossil fuel dependence and urgency of energy transition, finance

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To Battle Climate Change, a Baltimore Church Turns to Nature

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Rising sea levels and aging infrastructure pose serious flood risks for the coastal city. Efforts by Faith Presbyterian Church and other congregations could help stem the tide.

BALTIMORE—Every drop of rain rushing over pavement is a dilemma, picking up pollution and sweeping it into streams. And in this low-lying city on the water, it doesn’t take much to trigger flooding.

To Battle Climate Change, a Baltimore Church Turns to Nature

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Q&A: Look beyond Trump for the full story on US climate action, says university dean

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Since Donald Trump moved into the White House for his second term as president in January 2025, you’d be forgiven for thinking the US has abandoned all action to tackle climate change and is working aggressively to undermine the efforts of other countries towards that end.

This week, at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington DC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on the scientific consensus around global warming and pressured the two institutions to reverse what he called their “mission creep” and “myopic focus” on climate.

But this hostile rhetoric from the Trump administration and its withdrawal from the UN climate regime – coupled with its support for fossil fuels – doesn’t tell the whole story of what’s happening in the US, according to Lou Leonard, the first dean of the School of Climate, Environment, and Society at Clark University.

    At the state, city and community level, as well as in business and higher education, efforts are resolutely continuing to reduce planet-heating emissions, boost clean energy and adapt to climate shocks, Leonard, an environmental lawyer, told Climate Home News in an interview from Massachusetts.

    Thanks to impetus from coalitions such as America Is All In – whose predecessor group he helped launch – the US can still make significant progress towards its 2035 goals to cut emissions, research shows. Leonard, who worked as senior vice president for climate and energy at the World Wildlife Fund for over a decade, explains how US climate action and the Paris Agreement can survive Trump’s wrecking ball.

    Q: Has the effect of the Trump administration’s efforts to undermine global climate action and the UN climate process been worse than you expected? 

    A: A thing that is striking to me, looking at the decade of the Paris Agreement… is that over the course of that decade, the United States had a hostile sort of leadership in Washington, and the agreement has endured.

    And it has endured despite the United States, not because of the United States – at least from a federal standpoint. The US was really important in the formation stage but has not been as vital to the endurance of the agreement.

    Q: Is it not fair to say though that the current US abandonment of the UN climate process could reduce the impact and influence of the Paris Agreement?

    A: The nature of an international cooperative framework means that the aggregate ambition is as strong as the countries that make up it, right? I’m not saying that, in the dream scenario where every country was in a really aggressively positive place that we would not get more out of the international framework. There’s no question that that’s true.

    I think it’s just when we’re thinking about the singular role of one country – even the United States – there’s much more in play here than that theory of how things were going to work; the centrality of the United States to all this, especially at the Washington level. I think that turned out to be wrong – at least in the longest sweep of the progress that we’ve made.

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    I think the reason why what’s happening in Washington didn’t have as great an impact as it might have in the rest of the world is because the story of what’s happening in the United States is not limited to what’s happening in Washington.

    And that’s the second part – which is the things that sometimes frustrate people about the American political system – the sharing of power and the federal system, and all of those things which were intentionally built into the US system.

    In these moments, that structure has helped create a reality… and then the rest of the world can see for itself that there’s all these efforts through America Is All In and in other places to bring those actors and that leadership and analysis of the impact of that effort to the rest of the world. I think that that has been an important part of the story of why the Paris Agreement has endured.

    Lou Leonard, Dean of the School of Climate, Environment, and Society, speaks at an America Is All In event.

    Lou Leonard, Dean of the School of Climate, Environment, and Society, speaks at an America Is All In event.

    Q: What have some of the most important of those subnational efforts been in your view?

    A: California’s the most obvious example, because it’s the world’s sixth largest economy and it’s certainly one of the most aggressive states moving forward on climate action. But it’s more than that: if you look at the America Is All In analysis that was released at COP30 in Belém, it shows a roadmap to maintain US trajectories, as a way to keep things from really collapsing when you have these changes in federal leadership.

    There’s a parallel there to what’s happening globally – this is a distributed effort. We need all of society, all over the world, to be moving in this direction in order to reach our most ambitious goals.

    And I think the fact that the US has over half of the economy, at least, really leaning in this direction really helps. And then if you just look at the energy transition in the US, we have begun to reach this tipping point where the role of the markets and the role of politics are shifting to some degree.

    We really needed the policy incentives, and a lot of that [earlier] signal coming from Washington and then the states to get us to a point where renewable energy penetration was significant enough to begin to have momentum on its own, and I think we’re starting to see that. In just the last two years, over 90% of the new generation capacity in the United States has been renewables.

    Q: Where do you see real momentum on US climate action continuing or gathering pace despite what Washington is up to?

    A: What I really think is going to take us to another level than just relying on state governments… is the catalysing of more of a collaborative “all of society” approach here.

    That’s what led me to higher education. I felt like there was an understanding and an alignment within higher education of the importance of these topics – and then the bench within higher education is filled with some of the top experts in the world on climate who were already leading as it related to climate science and talking about the problem. But if we could take that capacity and bring it into more direct relationship with businesses, municipalities and states, then that has the potential to unlock more of the impact of those actors together … that’s the reason I made the move.

    The thing that drew me to [Clark] was you had a small university with really a national research capacity. And in Massachusetts, you have the only state in the country that has a chief climate officer that reports to the governor. You’ve got policy that’s been put in place related to green banks and zoning rules related to decarbonisation of buildings. And a state-based climate law that’s aligned with the Paris Agreement goals and has decarbonisation or net zero emissions by mid-century. You’ve got that policy piece in place, and then it’s how can you begin to catalyse some more of the collaboration that’s going be necessary to actually meet those goals? I think that’s really exciting.

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    Another place where we’re seeing these ingredients come together is Pennsylvania. Just a month ago, the state of Pennsylvania created a new programme called Prepare PA, which is both about preparing for climate impacts and reaching goals related to the energy transition and the like. And they’re putting Penn State University at the centre of trying to help them implement a plan that involves businesses and municipalities. I think you’re seeing more and more of this kind of experimentation.

    … This was always going to be an all-of-society effort, and the more we can see that, and the more we can make it real – how we all have roles to play at the local level, at the state level, in the private sector, in universities, in civil society, the more we have the opportunity to avoid this sense of powerlessness [about climate change] that can lead us to nihilism.

    The post Q&A: Look beyond Trump for the full story on US climate action, says university dean appeared first on Climate Home News.

    Q&A: Look beyond Trump for the full story on US climate action, says university dean

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