新数据显示，继过去几年的低迷之后，2023年中国对非洲可再生能源项目的投资出现反弹。
中国和非洲之间的气候合作是中非合作论坛的一个重点议题。论坛每三年举行一次。本次峰会于9月6日闭幕，有数十位领导人齐聚北京。
上届中非合作论坛于2021年举行，论坛发表了一项具有里程碑意义的宣言，将气候合作“定位为”未来合作的“重要支柱”。同年，中国政府宣布停止为煤电项目提供资金。
随之而来的是对能源项目的政策性银行贷款出现暂停，这引发了人们对中国在非洲能源贷款前景的担忧。然而，波士顿大学全球发展政策中心（Boston University Global Development Policy Center）的最新数据显示，随着银行调整战略，以遵循投资低碳能源和“小而美”项目的要求，这种暂停只是一种重置。
本文分析了这一转变，并探讨了中国为非洲未来可再生能源建设提供融资所面临的挑战。
“既有”利益
中国一直是非洲的能源项目，尤其是化石燃料项目的重要融资方。非洲约75%的电力来自化石燃料，尽管其能源相关的碳排放量占全球总排放量的不到3%，电气化率也是所有有人居住的大洲中最低的。
过去，中国的大部分融资都是由中国两家政策性银行——中国进出口银行和国家开发银行——支持推动的，而且主要针对燃煤电厂。
这两家银行在非洲各地发放了1820亿美元的贷款，主要投向了能源行业。波士顿大学全球发展政策中心的数据显示，从2000年到2023年，政策性银行贷款总额的15%流向了化石燃料行业，12%流向了水电站。
相比之下，发放给太阳能、风能或地热项目的贷款按价值计算不到1%。
这在很大程度上是由于中国官方出资者与国企之间既有联系。根据中南项目（China Global South Project）的数据，从历史上看，大多数中国国企都专注于煤炭和水电等传统电力领域。
英国开放大学（Open University）国际发展教育讲师弗兰顿·奇耶穆拉（Frangton Chiyemura）博士告诉Carbon Brief，中国在2000和2010年代的国际发展活动反映了当时中国自身的“内部发展轨迹”，因为中国也发展了以煤炭为主导的电力系统，而水电是最大的低碳能源。
他表示，在这个“走出去”的时期，非洲的大多数能源项目开发商——主要是中国国企——都专长于水电和煤炭，这导致更多此类项目获得融资并得以建设。
他补充说，这些国企“在保险、融资和与非洲各国政府接触方面都有国家支持……（而且）没有做太多试图建立市场的基础工作”。
“小而美”
2023年，中国进出口银行和国家开发银行承诺向三个能源项目注资5.02亿美元，包括布基纳法索的一个太阳能发电厂和马达加斯加的一个水电站，结束了2021年和2022年能源贷款的“中断”，如下图所示。
中国政策性银行在非洲的能源贷款暂停了两年，部分原因可能是新冠大流行期间的经济压力。
不过，波士顿大学全球发展政策中心认为，在中国国家主席于2021年承诺停止资助煤电，转而建设“小而美”的项目后，这些银行似乎也暂停了活动，以对其投资战略作出“必要的调整”。
2021年中非合作论坛气候变化宣言也确认，中国将进一步增加对非洲可再生能源和其他低碳项目的投资，“不会在国外建立新的燃煤发电项目”。
奇耶穆拉告诉Carbon Brief，这两年间的贷款减少并非中国政策性银行的“独有”现象。他补充称，在疫情期间，西方国家向非洲提供的贷款也有所下降。
他还同意，中国贷款机构将重点从“数量”转向“质量”，更多地考虑与新项目相关的投资风险和社会影响，这加速了投资的转变。
在此期间，中国的其他利益相关者——从中国电建集团和三峡集团等国企到晶澳科技等私企——都同意为可再生能源项目提供资金或参与项目建设。
根据睿纳新国际咨询公司（Development Reimagined）整理的独立数据（如下图所示），自2021年中非论坛以来，已有138个新的气候相关项目达成协议，而且在过去18个月里，这一数字还在加速增长。
数据库中记录的项目包括超过20吉瓦（GW）的太阳能项目、9吉瓦的水电项目以及1吉瓦的风电项目，如下图所示。
这些项目的资金来源广泛，包括中国和非中国企业、非洲和其他非中国金融机构，以及多边开发银行。
该咨询公司的项目经理兼中国气候融资政策负责人付亦可（Fu Yike；音译）对Carbon Brief说，在中国国家主席习近平2021年作出承诺后，中国国企已表示有兴趣“探索在非洲开展项目的新方式”，包括参与太阳能项目。
在数据库中列出的55个太阳能和风能项目中，国有企业分别参与了46个和5个。
根据睿纳新的分析，到2030年，中国在非洲的清洁能源项目装机可达224吉瓦，这意味着中国参与非洲的能源转型对于非洲实现2030年300吉瓦的目标至关重要。
付亦可补充说，特别是太阳能发电装机预计将成为中国未来在非洲能源部署的一大特色。
陡峭的“学习曲线”
总部设在伦敦的智库海外发展研究所（ODI）认为，中国“一带一路”倡议所建立的机制可以协助在非洲部署平价低碳技术，如同其促进了铁路和港口等中国国内基建产能向非洲“溢出”一样。
然而，奇耶穆拉告诉Carbon Brief，许多习惯于开发煤炭和水电的国企在转向可再生能源方面面临着巨大挑战。
此前，这些国企通过由政策性银行贷款资助的EPC总承包合同（即设计、采购和建造合同）来开发能源基础设施，这种合同只要求它们建设基础设施，而不负责运营和维护。
现在，非洲的决策者越来越多地推动采用股权融资模式，鼓励中国企业投资可再生能源项目并持有股份。
然而，奇耶穆拉表示，这种模式涉及到国企不太习惯的业务流程。
例如，埃塞俄比亚正在通过股权融资开发一座风力发电厂，从而减轻该国的债务压力。奇耶穆拉说，这意味着中国企业将不得不参与公开招标系统，而不是他们所习惯的闭门谈判。
“我记得一位（公司代表）说：‘为什么我要为一个（价值）可能只有8000万至9000万美元的项目浪费金钱和时间呢？’……企业认为，把时间花在（编写）招标文件上没有任何价值……但这表明它们在理解监管要求方面缺乏经验，而非洲的市场监管正在迅速变化。”
此外，付亦可认为，一些公司还对非洲的投资风险表示担忧。
大多数非洲国家在世界银行的“营商便利度”排名中靠后，这意味着监管环境不利于在当地创办和运营公司。
付亦可补充说，中国民营企业更愿意与国企合作，这可以将它们的参与与中国政府的利益更紧密地联系起来，从而限制它们的风险敞口。
奇耶穆拉与他人共同撰写的一篇论文也提到了这一点：“最近的趋势是在这些私营企业和国有企业之间建立一个联合体……很明显，在现有的政策群体中，新的联盟或利益集团正在形成，它们更加致力于促进风能和太阳能活动。”
奇耶穆拉称，部分原因是非洲在能源法规方面“快速变化”的环境。
非洲经济研究联合会（African Economic Research Consortium）合作研究经理戴安娜·恩吉·穆查伊（Dianah Ngui Muchai）认为，促进非洲投资的关键是针对可再生能源项目的“灵活和创新的（金融）工具”，以及“明确和现实”的政策目标。
奇耶穆拉告诉Carbon Brief，南非和埃塞俄比亚一直在尝试通过开发股权融资风电项目来实现这一目标。
“这是一条学习曲线，但我们相信也许在未来五到十年内……我们很可能会看到一些中国公司通过股权融资来开发这些项目。”他说。
中非论坛强调转向投资
这些主题在今年中非论坛的成果中得到了呼应。在主旨演讲中，习主席承诺向非洲提供价值3600亿元人民币（510亿美元）的资金支持。其中，2100亿元人民币（300亿美元）将通过信贷资金额度支付，700亿元人民币（100亿美元）将通过投资支付。
其中部分资金将用于资助一系列“清洁能源”项目，而“绿色发展”在会后的官方宣传中占据了重要位置。习主席在主旨演讲中指出，中方愿在非洲实施30个具体的清洁能源项目。
会后发表的宣言指出：“中方支持非洲国家更好利用光伏、水电、风能等可再生能源，进一步扩大在节能技术、高新技术产业、绿色低碳产业等低排放项目的对非投资规模。”
此外，与宣言同时发布的还有一份涵盖2025至2027年中非合作的行动计划，其中列出了指导未来三年中非合作的十大“伙伴行动”，包括“贸易繁荣”、“产业链合作”和“绿色发展”。
双方还将进行更广泛的能源合作，中方“将鼓励对非洲包括太阳能、风能、绿氢、水力发电、地热等可再生能源项目投资”。
习主席还告诉中非论坛代表，中国将“鼓励中非企业‘双向奔赴’投资创业……把产业附加值留在非洲，为非洲创造不少于100万个就业岗位。”
南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨（Cyril Ramaphosa）在新闻发布会上说，他“对习主席今天宣布的资金数额持非常积极的态度”，并补充说“这将是非洲大陆的一大福音”。
中南项目的分析则不那么乐观，认为报道标题上的数字“极具误导性”。
分析称，300亿美元的信贷额度“很可能………将更多地惠及中国企业，而非非洲利益相关者”，而100亿美元的投资数字“不应被视为政府财政承诺的一部分……因为（这笔资金）将由中国民营企业，尤其是采矿业企业提供”。
中南项目联合创始人埃里克·奥兰德（Eric Olander）告诉彭博社，这笔信贷可能会被用于“资助从中国购买大量太阳能电池板、电池和电动汽车”，以供非洲使用。
但非中政策咨询中心（Africa-China Centre for Policy and Advisory）高级研究员艾萨克·安克拉（Isaac Ankrah）博士告诉Carbon Brief，习主席对在整个非洲发展“绿色增长引擎”的关注凸显了中国“转向更具结构化的气候适应项目融资模式，重点关注技术转让、产能建设和可持续基础设施”。
他补充说，“这些承诺可能导致资金流的重新调整，使其更加符合非洲能源转型的具体需求”。
中非论坛对投资的关注是否会导致其切实远离贷款驱动型项目还有待观察，但一些非洲决策者将推动这种转变发生视为首要任务。
正如安哥拉财长维拉·戴维斯·德索萨（Vera Daves De Sousa）在接受路透社采访时所说：“我们需要打破常规思维： “我们需要跳出思维定式，因为‘你给我钱，我给你抵押品’的简单解决方案已经过时了。”
The post 深度报道：中国对非洲可再生能源的投资在沉寂两年之后反弹 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Israel’s bombardment of Gaza during the conflict that broke out in October 2023 has wrecked progress towards adapting the enclave to climate change and left two million Gazans vulnerable to heatwaves, drought and disease, the Palestinian Authority (PA) said in a new climate plan submitted to the United Nations.
Palestine’s third nationally determined contribution (NDC), uploaded to the UN climate body’s website this week, says that while “the aggression on the Gaza Strip did not make the climate worse”, “it removed the housing, water and sanitation systems, health facilities, energy networks, roads and livelihoods through which people absorb a climate they were already struggling with.”
The 91-page document lists the types of infrastructure it says Israel has destroyed and notes how the destruction will worsen the impacts of climate change. It says the bombing of hospitals and rising hunger have make it harder for Gazans to cope with the health impacts of climate-driven heatwaves and waterborne diseases.
The destruction of water tanks, boreholes and desalination plants, meanwhile, have left Gazans struggling with the effects of water shortages and drought, while mass unemployment reduces people’s ability to afford climate-driven price rises. The erasure of most of the Strip’s homes makes it more difficult for people to avoid the sun’s increasing heat, the NDC said.
Many Gazans are now living in the ruins of collapsed buildings or in makeshift shelters and tents that offer little or no protection from high temperatures.
Palestine’s previous goals to cut emissions and adapt to climate change in Gaza, expressed in its last NDC five years ago, were based on a pre-war baseline that “no longer describes anything that exists”, the NDC says. Progress made since 2021 has now been destroyed, it adds.
Green reconstruction of Gaza
Instead of continuing to aim for these adaptation and emissions-reduction goals, the PA is now calling for the green reconstruction of Gaza. It says buildings should be constructed again in an energy-efficient manner with solar panels and served with modern water, waste and transport systems.
While the PA, controlled by the Fatah political party, continues to claim legitimate control of Gaza, the strip was effectively governed by Fatah’s rival Hamas between 2007 and the recent war. Control is now split between Israel and the political wing of Islamist militant group Hamas, after a US-backed ceasefire took effect in October 2025, although a UN-backed committee plans to take over.
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The United Nations, European Union and World Bank have jointly estimated that Gaza needs $71.4 billion of investment in the next two years to recover and build back. This process should be Palestinian-led, they said in April.
But US President Donald Trump has said the US should “take over” and “own” Gaza and redevelop it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Israel’s right-wing prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel should control the territory with civil administration managed by Palestinians favourable to Israel.
With occupation, targets conditional
In the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority carries out some government functions, but ultimate control rests with Israel, which has occupied the West Bank since 1967.
Because Israel controls planning in most of the West Bank, the NDC argues that the PA cannot pursue all the climate projects it wants. In addition, Israel restricts the movement of PA officials, making data collection difficult, and controls the West Bank’s electricity supply meaning that the PA cannot control whether it comes from dirty or clean sources of energy.
Given this situation, the NDC says that all of Palestine’s new climate targets are conditional but it will aim to reduce emissions 12.8% below a business-as-usual baseline by 2035 and 17.1% by 2040. If the Israeli occupation ends and Palestine regains full sovereignty over its land and resources, it will aim for reductions of 15.1% and 19.1% by 2035 and 2040 respectively under an “independence pathway”.
That could allow, for example, for greater electrification and reducing emissions per unit of growth, the document said.
To achieve the 2035 emissions-reduction target and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the PA says it needs $8.6 billion in total. This funding would be spent on measures like encouraging solar farms and rooftop solar and scaling up solar water heating to cover four-fifths of households. To complement the planned increase in solar power, the authority wants to modernise the electricity grid and install battery storage.
In the transport sector, it aims to promote the uptake of electric vehicles, develop bus rapid transit corridors and scrap old polluting trucks and buses. In Gaza in particular, it wants to deploy 66 electric buses when the conflict ends.
To adapt to climate-driven drought, the NDC includes initiatives to reuse wastewater through treatment plants, build desalination plants in Gaza to remove salt from seawater, and promote irrigation for farmers.
The new climate plan was prepared by Palestine’s Environment Quality Authority, with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the governments of Britain and Spain.
The United Nations recognised Palestine’s statehood in 2012 and it joined the UN’s climate convention and signed the Paris climate agreement – which requires countries to submit more ambitious NDCs every five years – in 2016.
The Israeli foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But in late 2024, then Israeli climate envoy Gideon Behar told Climate Home News that the war and the resulting environmental destruction in Gaza was the fault of Hamas.
The post Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change appeared first on Climate Home News.
Palestine: Israel’s bombing has left Gaza vulnerable to climate change
Solar power generation in the UK reached a new record over the summer of 2026, as temperatures across the nation soared, according to new analysis by Carbon Brief.
Collectively over June, July and August, solar farms and rooftops generated 8.8 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity in the UK*, as shown in the chart below.
Speaking to Carbon Brief, Chris Hewett, chief executive of trade association Solar Energy UK welcomed the new record, adding that it was driven by “clear skies and continued growth in deployment”.
This surge in generation took place amid the hottest summer on record in the UK, with five heatwaves between May and August.
Summer 2026 was the sixth sunniest on record, with more than 620 hours of sunshine, according to the Met Office. England and Wales – which experienced the most extreme heat – saw their second-sunniest summers on record.
June 2026 was the hottest June in England since records began in 1884, according to Met Office data, while Wales and the UK as a whole experienced their second-warmest June.
It was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with some parts of London seeing no rain at all in the month, while Wisley in Surrey had no rain for 62 days.
In England, temperatures peaked at 38.1C at Kew Gardens in London on 13 August.
According to the Met Office, this summer’s record mean temperature was made 130 times more likely by climate change.
Amid these hot and sunny months, solar power generation increased 23% from the same period in 2025. This is double the level of solar generation over the summer of 2021, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
While solar panels can be affected by periods of extreme heat, the longer hours of daylight and higher levels of irradiation over the summer more than offset any efficiency losses.
June, July and August all saw solar set new monthly records for solar generation – July saw the highest solar generation in a calendar month ever, with 3.3TWh meeting 15% of overall electricity demand for the month.
As of the end of August, the total UK solar generation in 2026 stood at 17TWh – 13% higher than the same point in 2025.
The number of solar farms and rooftop installations has grown substantially in recent years, helping to boost generation. Domestic rooftop solar accounts for around 29% of total capacity.
In 2025, the UK’s solar capacity reached 21 gigawatts (GW) by the third quarter of the year, according to UK government figures. This is a jump of 3GW, or 18%, year-on-year, as Carbon Brief reported in January.
(Capacity is the maximum output possible from an electricity generation, whereas generation is what was produced over a certain time period, such as a day, month or year.)
According to the University of Sheffield, the installed solar capacity is now nearly 24GW.
This includes nearly 172,000 solar installations that have been fitted across the UK since the start of 2026, according to recent government figures. In July alone, more than 19,800 rooftop solar panels were installed – the equivalent of one installation every two minutes.
In total, nearly 1.7m households in the UK now have solar panels installed.
Over 26 heatwave days this summer – periods of at least three days when temperatures exceed the Met Office’s county-level heatwave temperature threshold – UK households with rooftop solar panels avoided an estimated £86.7m in electricity costs, according to analysis by Utility Bidder.
Talking about the surge in solar generation this summer, Hewett says:
“[It] not only kept bills down for people with solar and batteries in their homes, but helped keep overall power prices much lower than they would have been if Britain had been relying on more gas generation during the day”.
Despite the record generation, no new half-hourly solar power output record was set in the summer of 2026. This still stands at 15.2 megawatts (MW) on 23 April 2026.
* This article refers to the UK throughout, but strictly relates to the island of Great Britain, made up of England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is part of the separate, all-Ireland electricity system.
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The post Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Farmers around Europe are dealing with the aftermath of a summer of extreme heat, drought and wildfires that were exacerbated by climate change.
Human-caused climate change is increasing the severity and likelihood of many extreme weather events around the world, which is increasing volatility for food producers.
This summer resulted in, for example, shrunken potatoes in the Netherlands, reduced carrot harvests in France, dried-up rice fields in Italy and scorched olive groves in parts of the Mediterranean region.
Global food prices are currently at their highest level since early 2023 due to “heatwaves and energy price dynamics”, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
Other factors such as blocked fertiliser supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel costs have also played a role in this year’s agricultural outputs.
In the six charts below, Carbon Brief provides a snapshot of the impact this summer’s extremes are considered to have had on crop production and yields across Europe.
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
1. Most EU countries expect to see declines in cereal production this year
France, in particular, will see heavy losses in the amount of cereals – such as wheat, barley and oats – it produces this year, according to European Commission data.
French cereal production is expected to drop by almost 8 megatonnes (Mt) in 2026, compared to 2025.
The chart above shows that most European countries, aside from Bulgaria, will also see production losses this year.
Germany is due to see the second-largest losses in production, dropping by almost 4Mt compared to 2025.
Prof Til Feike, a cropping systems expert at the Julius Kühn-Institut, says many areas in Germany and Austria, as with other parts of Europe, have been “hit hard by a long-lasting dry period in combination with record-high heatwaves”.
This has resulted in dry grassland for animals and lower yields of maize, which is a “key fodder crop” for livestock. He tells Carbon Brief:
“In the long run, farming must adapt better to more extreme weather conditions, not only heat and drought, but also prolonged wet periods. So, there is no one-fits-all solution for climate change adaptation.”
2. Most countries are recording reduced crop yields
Heat and a lack of water have “substantially worsened” crop expectations this summer in western and most of central Europe, according to a recent bulletin from the EU Joint Research Centre.
Yields are expected to be “significantly reduced”, with local crop failures “likely” in areas such as France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, and Hungary, it added.
The chart below shows that yields of cereal grains – which, here, refers to the tonnes of a grain grown per hectare of land – are expected to fall in most EU countries in 2026.
Slovakia, Austria and Hungary are expected to see the largest declines in cereal yields, reducing by more than one tonne per hectare in 2026 compared to 2025.
The recent EU bulletin noted that irrigated crops performed well in Portugal this summer – the country with the largest yield increases. Other crops relying on rainfall showed growing signs of heat stress, it added.
3. Around €2bn worth of cereal losses after June heatwave
The record heatwave that hit many parts of Europe in June contributed to an estimated €2-2.3bn in cumulative grain production losses, as shown in the chart below.
The intense June heat in western Europe would have been “virtually impossible” just 50 years ago, according to a rapid climate attribution study. It was the region’s hottest June on record.
The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank analysed June and July 2026 grain forecasts from Coceral, a European grain traders association.
ECIU estimated lost supply by multiplying the change in tonnes of grains between these two months by prices for harvest delivery in 28 European countries.
Major grain producers France, Germany, Hungary and Spain accounted for 86% of the lost revenue, according to the ECIU.
Extreme heat is also expected to have a wider economic impact across the continent. Analysis from Triodos Bank found that this summer’s extreme weather could reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) by around 1% this year, or around €180bn.
4. UK yields of wheat, barley and oats are all due to drop in 2026
If current trends continue, the average yields for cereals and oilseeds will result in the UK’s worst harvest since detailed records began in 1984, according to ECIU.
Barley yields could fall by 15%, oats by 14% and wheat yields by 6% year-on-year, according to 2026 harvest surveys from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, a non-departmental public body that provides agricultural data to the UK government.
ECIU said that, even if the situation improves, this year is still expected to be one of the five worst harvests on record. This means that four of the five worst harvests in the UK have occurred in the past decade.
Consumers will likely see higher prices and/or smaller vegetables in supermarkets as a result, Tim O’Malley, chairman of UK company Nationwide Produce, told BBC News in August.
Other crops, such as berries, have grown successfully in the extreme heat. But the Guardian noted fears this could dip later this year “as plants become exhausted from heavy cropping during the heatwave”.
5. Maize production in France is due to hit a four-decade low
France has been acutely affected by this summer’s extreme weather, with more than 7,300 excess deaths during heatwaves and a record number of weather stations recording temperatures of above 40C.
The country is the EU’s largest agricultural producer, but heat, drought and wildfires have affected many crops.
The chart below shows that maize production is set to drop by more than one-third (35%) year-on-year.
This could result in France’s lowest maize production since 1980, according to data from Agreste, the country’s agriculture ministry’s statistics service.
Due to the heat, “record-early” grape harvests have also been recorded in various parts of the nation since mid-July, reported Le Monde. In some cases, this means “smaller, less juicy grapes, which will yield less wine”, explained the newspaper.
6. Declines in EU grains since 2025
Overall in the EU, data and projections indicate declines in the output of cereal grains this year.
Cereal production is set to fall by 9% compared to 2025, according to the European Commission.
Just one year in the past decade – 2024 – recorded lower production levels.
Maize production is set to be particularly affected, with projections indicating a 13% drop, to 52Mt – the lowest level in the EU since 2007.
The post How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts appeared first on Carbon Brief.
How this summer’s heat and drought impacted crops in Europe – in six charts
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