Piers Forster is Professor of Physical Climate Change and founding Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds.
Today marks the 10th anniversary of the landmark Paris Agreement, which has become a key compass in policymaking over the past years, preventing us from reaching a world with 4°C of warming. Climate ambition and implementation must continue at the pace the Paris Agreement requires.
Ten years ago, governments adopted an agreement that was supposed to keep the global average temperature “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial times and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.
A decade later, 1.5°C is no longer a distant possibility but a lived reality.
UN accepts overshooting 1.5C warming limit – at least temporarily – is “inevitable”
The Paris Agreement is failing to meet its lowest temperature goal. Yet it has done something profound: it has steered the world away from 4°C of warming, towards a level closer to 2-something.
That is nowhere near safe, but it is not nothing.
As a climate scientist, I’ve seen the climate changing over the years. The influence humans exert on it is unequivocal. And it became clear that in a world that is shifting so rapidly, it’s key to provide decision-makers with frequent, robust updates on the state of the climate system. This is why, together with other colleagues, we created the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) initiative.
Hot seas and even hotter land bring dangerous impacts
Since 2023, we’ve been using IPCC methodologies to update key climate indicators that help us track how the climate is changing and how much of that is due to human influence. We found that global greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, with around 53 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) having been released into the atmosphere, much higher than the approximate 41 GtCO2 in 2014.
The planet is now around 1.4°C warmer than in the late 19th century, compared with roughly 0.4°C in 1990, the year I embarked on my PhD, and about 1°C in 2015.
Land temperatures increased by 1.79°C from 1850–1900 to 2015–2024 and ocean temperatures by 1.02°C over the same period. Among the negative consequences of a warmer ocean, there’s sea level rise, which impacts coastal areas and becomes very dangerous for human settlements in those areas.
Unnervingly, this is likely the most stable and safest climate we will know for the next hundred years or more, given the carbon dioxide levels already in the atmosphere.
Capital shifting to clean energy sources
Although not as fast as humanity requires, climate policies have moved forward. The most visible change is in the power system. In 2015, renewables and nuclear made up about 24% of global electricity generation; today, they account for just over 40%.
In most of the world, new wind and solar are now cheaper than new fossil power. The economic case is better than ever to transition. The investment, innovation and policy shifts triggered or accelerated by Paris have rerouted capital in the right directions.
Taking the UK as an example, the government passed a net-zero emissions law in 2019, becoming the first major economy in the world to take such a step. The UK has also made significant progress in reducing emissions: in 2024, emissions levels were around 50% below those in 1990.
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As the Paris Agreement turns 10, what has it achieved?
A decade since the deal was adopted, climate experts say it is working to cut emissions, spur action and reduce the projected temperature rise – but not as fast as we need it to -
US set to push fossil fuels under its G20 presidency
But Trump’s attempts to undermine climate action could face blowback as most other nations remain committed -
Government attendance at COP30 was lowest in 10 years
With a shortage of affordable accommodation on COP30’s official platform, just 7,500 people attended the summit with official government badges
How the Paris pact can mature
Here’s what we need in the next 10 years for the Paris Agreement to survive its adolescence:
First, science cannot be treated as a battleground.
The latest IPCC cycle (AR6) had a more balanced authorship than ever before, with an approximately equal split between experts from the Global North and Global South and near parity between men and women. That diversity has strengthened, not weakened, the scientific consensus.
Yet at this year’s COP30 climate conference, some governments tried to sideline IPCC findings and to block routine updates on the state of the climate from the final decision text – not because the numbers were wrong, but because they were angry at the glacial progress on climate finance or did not want their own climate ambitions scrutinized too closely.
However, turning the scientific messenger into a target will not move a single dollar or tonne of CO2.
Second, the world needs to stop obsessing over the “net” in net zero.
The cheapest, fastest and most reliable way to slow the pace of climate change is to replace fossil fuels with renewables and, where appropriate, nuclear power, backed by storage, grids and efficiency.
Yes, we need to plan for carbon dioxide removal and yes, we need to help nature restore its damaged ecosystems. These “net” parts of net zero remain important, but without a planned phase-out of fossil fuel production and use, the Paris temperature goals are dead.
There are, however, glimmers of a post-fossil politics.
Charting a path away from fossil fuels
At COP30 in Belém, 24 countries, including major fossil fuel producers such as Australia and Colombia, backed language that points towards a managed transition away from fossil fuels.
And 18 nations have now endorsed the proposal for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, which would, in effect, do for coal, oil and gas what earlier treaties did for nuclear weapons: cap, then wind down, the most dangerous stocks.
Colombia seeks to speed up a “just” fossil fuel phase-out with first global conference
The Brazilian COP presidency is also working on a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap, signaling that the politics of “how” to leave fossil fuels behind is finally catching up with the science of “why”.
In some ways, it feels like 2014, when momentum built and delivered the Paris Agreement. The difference now is that we have the means to deliver on this vision.
The post Why the Paris Agreement worked – and what it needs to do to survive appeared first on Climate Home News.
Why the Paris Agreement worked – and what it needs to do to survive
The nonprofit said in a new report that pipeline company Energy Transfer reported hundreds of oil spills to federal regulators in recent years, among other incidents.
The environmental nonprofit Greenpeace was under the microscope in a North Dakota trial this year. Now the organization is calling attention to the environmental impacts of the pipeline company that brought it to court and won a $345 million judgment.
Greenpeace Scrutinizes the Environmental Record of the Company That Sued the Group
Climate Change
Wisconsin Tribes Have Helped the Lake Sturgeon Recover. Climate Change Is Stressing Its Ability to Adapt.
The ancient, enormous fish have lived on Earth for more than 150 million years but changing weather conditions have researchers questioning whether future generations will thrive.
On a cool October morning, members of the St. Croix Chippewa Tribe gathered at the Clam Lake boat landing in northern Wisconsin, carrying five-gallon buckets of small, wriggling lake sturgeon. After a short prayer calling on their ancestors, they tipped the six-month-old fish—raised in the Tribe’s newly built hatchery—into the lake. It was the Tribe’s first sturgeon release and the latest chapter in one of North America’s great freshwater conservation success stories.
Climate Change
China Briefing 11 December 2025: Winter record looms; Joint climate statement with France; How ‘mid-level bureaucrats’ help shape policy
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Record power and gas demand
DOMESTIC TURBINES: China’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), expects both electricity demand and gas demand to hit the “highest level yet recorded in winter”, reported Reuters. Data from a sample of coal plants nevertheless showed a recent drop in output year-on-year. Meanwhile, China has developed a “high-efficiency” gas turbine which will “strengthen[ China’s] power grid with low-carbon electricity”, said state news agency Xinhua. According to Bloomberg, the turbine is the first to have been fully produced in China, helping the country to “reduce reliance on imported technology amid a global shortage of equipment”.
‘SUBDUED’ OIL GROWTH: Chinese oil demand is likely to “remain subdued” until at least the middle of 2026, reported Bloomberg. Next year will see “one of the lowest growth rates in China in quite some time”, said commodities trader Trafigura’s chief economist Saad Rahim, reported the Financial Times. Demand is set to plateau until 2030, according to research linked to “state oil major” CNPC, said Reuters. In the building materials industry, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are “projected to fall by 25%” in 2025 relative to pre-2021 levels, China Building Materials Federation president Yan Xiaofeng told state broadcaster CCTV.
FLAT EMISSIONS GROWTH: China’s CO2 emissions in 2024 grew by 0.6% year-on-year, reported Xinhua, citing the newly released China Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (2024). This represented a “significant narrowing from the 2023 increase and remains below the global average growth rate of 0.8%”, it added. (The bulletin confirms analysis for Carbon Brief published in January, which put China’s 2024 emissions growth at 0.8%.)
China-France climate statements
CLIMATE BONHOMIE: During a visit by French president Emmanuel Macron to China, the two countries signed a joint statement on climate change, reported Xinhua. It published the full text of the statement, which pledged more cooperation on “accelerating” renewables globally, as well as “enhancing communication” in carbon pricing, methane, adaptation and other areas. It also said China and France would support developing countries’ access to climate finance, adding that developed nations will “take the lead in providing and mobilising” this “before 2035”, while encouraging developing countries to “voluntarily contribute”.
MORE COOPERATION: China and France issued separate statements on “nuclear energy” cooperation, Xinhua reported, as well as on expanding cooperation on the “green economy”, according to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
EU’s new ‘economic security’ package
NEW PLANS, SAME TOOLS: Meanwhile, the EU has issued new plans to “boost EU resilience to threats like rare-earth shortages”, said Reuters, including an “economic security doctrine” that would encourage “new measures…designed to counter unfair trade and market distortions, including overcapacity”. A second plan on critical minerals will “restrict exports of [recyclable] rare-earth waste and battery scrap” to shore up supplies for “electric cars, wind turbines and semiconductors”, according to another Reuters article. Euractiv characterised the policy package as a “reframing of existing tools and plans”.
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‘NOT VERY CREDIBLE’: EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told the Financial Times that the latest push against the bloc’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which the outlet said is “led by China, India and Saudi Arabia”, was “not very credible”. A “GT Voice” comment in the state-supporting Global Times said the CBAM exposed a dilemma around the “absence of a globally accepted, transparent and equitable standard for measuring carbon footprints”. It called CBAM a “pioneering step”, but said climate efforts needed “greater international coordination, not unilateral enforcement”.
FIRST REVIEW: The EU has undertaken its first “formal review” of the tariffs placed on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), assessing a price undertaking offer submitted by Volkswagen’s Chinese joint venture, reported SCMP. Chinese EVs – including both hybrid and pure EVs – saw their “second-best month on record” in October, with sales coming down slightly from September’s peak, said Bloomberg.
More China news
- ECONOMIC SIGNALS: At the central economic work conference, held in Beijing on 10-11 December, President Xi Jinping said China would adhere to the “dual-carbon” goals and promote a “comprehensive green transition”, reported Xinhua.
- EFFORTS ‘INTENSIFIED’: Ahead of the meeting, premier Li Qiang also noted earlier that energy conservation and carbon reduction efforts must be “intensified”, according to the People’s Daily.
- JET FUEL: A major jet fuel distributor is being acquired by oil giant Sinopec, which could “risk slowing [China’s] push to decarbonise air travel”, reported Caixin.
- SLOW AND STEADY: An article in the People’s Daily said China’s energy transition is “not something that can be achieved overnight”.
- ‘ECO-POLICE’: China’s environment ministry published a draft grading system for “atmospheric environmental performance in key industries”, including assessment of “significant…carbon emission reduction effects”, noted International Energy Net. China will also set up an “eco-police” mechanism in 2027, China Daily said.
- INNOVATION INITIATIVE: The National Energy Administration issued a call for the “preliminary establishment of a new energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient” in the next five years, reported BJX News. The plan also noted: “Those who take the lead in [energy technology] innovation will gain the initiative.”
Spotlight
Interview: How ‘mid-level bureaucrats’ are helping to shape Chinese climate policy
Local officials are viewed as relatively weak actors in China’s governance structure.
However, a new book – “Implementing a low-carbon future: climate leadership in Chinese cities” – argues that these officials play an important role in designing innovative and enduring climate policy.
Carbon Brief interviews author Weila Gong, non-resident scholar at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy’s 21st Century China Center and visiting scholar at UC Davis, on her research.
Below are highlights from the conversation. The full interview is published on the Carbon Brief website.
Carbon Brief: You’ve just written a book about climate policy in Chinese cities. Could you explain why subnational governments are important for China’s climate policy in general?
Weila Gong: China is the world’s largest carbon emitter [and] over 85% of China’s carbon emissions come from cities.
We tend to think that officials at the provincial, city and township levels are barriers for environmental protection, because they are focused on promoting economic growth.
But I observed these actors participating in China’s low-carbon city pilot. I was surprised to see so many cities wanted to participate, even though there was no specific evaluation system that would reward their efforts.
CB: Could you help us understand the mindset of these bureaucrats? How do local-level officials design policies in China?
WG: We tend to focus on top political figures, such as mayors or [municipal] party secretaries. But mid-level bureaucrats [are usually the] ones implementing low-carbon policies.
Mid-level local officials saw [the low-carbon city pilot] as a way to help their bosses get promoted, which in turn would help them advance their own career. As such, they [aimed to] create unique, innovative and visible policy actions to help draw the attention [of their superiors].
They are also often more interested in climate issues if it is in the interest of their agency or local government.
Another motivation is accessing finance [by using] pilot programmes, if their ideas impress the central-level government.
CB: Could you give an example of what drives innovative local climate policies?
WG: National-level policies and pilot programme schemes provide openings for local governments to think about how and whether they should engage more in addressing climate change.
By experiment[ing] with policy at a local level, local governments help national-level officials develop responses to emerging policy challenges.
Local carbon emission trading systems (ETSs) are an example.
One element that made the Shenzhen ETS successful is “entrepreneurial bureaucrats” [who have the ability to design, push through and maintain new local-level climate policies].
Even though we might think local officials are constrained in terms of policy or financial resources, they often have the leverage and space to build coalitions…and know how to mobilise political support.
CB: What needs to be done to strengthen sub-national climate policy making?
WG: It’s very important to have groups of personnel trained on climate policy…[Often] climate change is only one of local officials’ day-to-day responsibilities. We need full-time staff to follow through on policies from the beginning right up to implementation.
Secondly, while almost all cities have made carbon-peaking plans, one area in which the government can make further progress is data.
Most Chinese cities haven’t yet established regular carbon accounting systems, [and only have access to] inadequate statistics. Local agencies can’t always access detailed data [held at the central level]…[while] much of the company-level data is self-reported.
Finally, China will always need local officials willing to try new policy instruments. Ensuring they have the conditions to do this is very important.
Watch, read, listen
BREAKNECK SPEED: In a conversation with the Zero podcast, tech analyst Dan Wang outlined how an “engineering mindset” may have given China the edge in developing clean-energy systems in comparison to the US.
QUESTION OF CURRENCY: Institute of Finance and Sustainability president Ma Jun and Climate Bonds Initiative CEO Sean Kidney examined how China’s yuan-denominated loans can “ease the climate financing crunch” in the South China Morning Post.
DRIVING CHANGE: Deutsche Welle broadcast a report on how affordable cleantech from China is accelerating the energy transition in global south countries.
EXPOSING LOOPHOLES: Economic news outlet Jiemian investigated how a scandal involving the main developer of pumped storage capacity in China revealed “regulatory loopholes” in constructing such projects.
$180 billion
The amount of outward direct investment Chinese companies have committed to cleantech projects overseas since 2023, according to a new report by thinktank Climate Energy Finance.
New science
- A new study looking at battery electric trucks across China, Europe and the US showed they “can reach 27-58% reductions in lifecycle CO2 emissions compared with diesel trucks” | Nature Reviews Clean Technology
- “Shortcomings remain” in China’s legal approach to offshore carbon capture, utilisation and storage, such as a lack of “specialised” legal frameworks | Climate Policy
China Briefing is written by Anika Patel and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org
The post China Briefing 11 December 2025: Winter record looms; Joint climate statement with France; How ‘mid-level bureaucrats’ help shape policy appeared first on Carbon Brief.
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