The energy world is changing fast, yet not fast enough to protect the planet from dangerous warming. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2025, released at the start of COP30 in Brazil, lays out three futures for global emissions. These scenarios show how close — or far — the world is from meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. The findings are sobering, but they also give countries clear signals on where action must accelerate.
The IEA makes one point very clear: 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded, and for the first time, global temperatures stayed above 1.5°C across the entire year. The last decade was also the hottest in history. This puts huge pressure on countries as they update their national climate plans at COP30.
Yet the IEA also stresses something important — none of its scenarios are forecasts. They are pathways, and the direction we take still depends on policy choices made today.
A World on a Hotter Track: What the IEA’s Scenarios Show
The IEA’s three major scenarios outline different ways the global energy system could evolve. Two reflect today’s conditions. The third shows what it would take actually to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Current Policies Scenario (CPS): The Dangerous Path
This scenario assumes governments stop at policies already written into law. No new climate pledges. No new incentives. No strengthened targets.
Under this path:
- Coal use falls only slightly.
- Oil and gas demand have been rising for decades.
- Global energy-related emissions stay close to 2024 levels all the way to 2050.
The result is alarming. Global warming will hit 2°C by around 2050 and reach 2.9°C by 2100, and temperatures will still be rising. The IEA even warns there is a 5% chance of hitting 4°C, a level associated with extreme climate disruptions and irreversible tipping points.
The CPS was removed after 2020 because it seemed unrealistic in a world trying to cut emissions. But political pressure, especially from the Trump administration, pushed the IEA to bring it back. Its return shows how vulnerable global climate ambition can be when big economies shift direction.
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Better, but Still Off-Track
This scenario reflects what governments say they plan to do — but not what they have legally locked in.
Here:
- Emissions peak within a few years.
- They fall slightly to 35.2 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2035.
- Advanced economies and China reduce emissions.
- But developing economies emit more as energy demand rises.
Even with these changes, the STEPS pathway still results in 2.5°C of warming by 2100. This is far above the Paris goal of “well below 2°C” and nowhere near keeping warming under 1.5°C. The IEA notes that this year’s STEPS outcome is worse than last year’s due to slower clean energy progress and higher expected coal use.
Net Zero by 2050 Scenario (NZE): The Only Path that Stabilizes the Climate
Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, often called the NZE, shows what a 1.5°C-aligned future would require. It is the only pathway that eventually brings warming back below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
But the challenge has grown sharply. Because real-world emissions remain high, the NZE scenario now includes:
- a higher and longer overshoot of the 1.5°C limit
- warming peaks around 65°C mid-century and slowly declines
Large-Scale Carbon Removal Technologies: The Saviour
The only way to return below that threshold later this century is to combine deep emissions cuts with large-scale carbon removal technologies. These technologies remain expensive and unproven at the scale required.
So the IEA emphasizes that countries must do everything possible to limit the overshoot by cutting emissions faster now. Notably, in the NZE pathway, global emissions fall by more than half by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050.
By the end of the century, carbon removal technologies would need to eliminate nearly four gigatonnes of CO₂ each year to bring temperatures back down.
A Fossil Peak Nears as Clean Energy Surges — but the World Still Falls Short
The IEA shows the energy system shifting, with coal already at or near its peak and oil expected to peak around 2030, though its decline will be slower than once expected. Gas demand levels off around 2035, but at a higher baseline than earlier forecasts, revealing how deeply rooted fossil fuels remain in the global mix.
At the same time, clean energy is rising fast. Solar capacity could more than triple by 2035, wind is set to nearly triple, and nuclear expands by close to 40 percent. Renewables will even overtake oil as the largest energy source by the early 2040s. Yet the world is still not moving fast enough. Under stated policies, renewable capacity reaches about 13,700 gigawatts by 2035, far short of the roughly 19,600 gigawatts required under the net-zero pathway.
Global Carbon Emissions: Peaks and Plateaus
Both IEA scenarios point to sustained high emissions, though at different levels. In the CPS, global energy emissions stay near 2024 levels through 2050, as small coal reductions are offset by rising oil and gas use. In the STEPS, emissions peak soon, drop to 35.2 gigatonnes by 2035, and decline slowly to 2050.
Reductions in advanced economies and China are balanced by rising emissions in developing regions. The gap between CPS and STEPS comes mainly from higher coal emissions, slower industrial efficiency, and delayed adoption of electric and efficient vehicles.
All in all, this gap underscores the need to accelerate clean energy deployment to align with global climate goals.
Why COP30 Matters More Than Ever
With the world heating faster than expected and the 1.5°C threshold already breached annually, COP30 becomes a turning point. The IEA’s outlook directly shapes negotiations because it:
- Shows the world is far off-track.
- Highlights the widening gap between political promises and real action.
- Makes clear that overshoot is now unavoidable.
- Warns that delay will force much heavier reliance on expensive CO₂ removals later.
At COP30, countries need to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The IEA warns that current NDCs do not reflect the full potential of national policies or domestic clean energy momentum. In other words, many countries are doing more at home than they are willing to commit to on paper.
COP30 is a chance to fix this gap.
What Can Be Done to Get on Track? The IEA’s Priority Actions
The message is clear: the world is not on track, and the window to avoid the worst climate impacts is shrinking. Still, the IEA shows that meaningful progress is underway.
It highlights several actions that could quickly bring global emissions closer to the NZE path. The world needs faster renewable energy deployment, stronger energy efficiency improvements, and large reductions in methane emissions from the energy sector.
Electrification of vehicles, buildings, and industry has to accelerate, and sustainable fuels such as biofuels and hydrogen must expand significantly. These steps are well understood, often cost-effective, and achievable with current technology. What remains missing is the political will to scale them up at the speed required.
With COP30, countries certainly have an opportunity to match ambition with action and take decisive steps toward a safer climate future.
The post What the IEA’s New Scenarios Mean for the Global Climate — and for COP30 appeared first on Carbon Credits.
As electricity demand rises and renewable energy grows in the U.S., battery storage is key. Waymo has launched a battery repurposing program to give retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries a new purpose in the power sector.
Waymo is working with B2U Storage Solutions to turn used batteries from its all-electric fleet into large-scale energy storage systems. Instead of recycling these batteries after use, Waymo will repurpose them to store electricity and support local power grids.
This program reflects a commitment to the circular economy, keeping products useful before recycling.
Adam Lenz, Head of Sustainability & Environment at Waymo, said:
“Our shared fleet of EVs provide a massive opportunity to support the growth of clean energy on the electricity grid while expanding the circular economy. Through this partnership, we can repurpose our batteries for local grid storage and ensure our batteries continue to provide economic and environmental value to the community long after they’ve retired from the road.”
Turning Old EV Batteries Into Energy Assets
EV batteries often retain significant storage capacity after their driving days. While their performance may drop for vehicles, many can still serve well in energy storage projects.
The press release says that retired Waymo batteries will join grid-connected energy storage systems through this partnership. These systems will store electricity from renewable sources like solar and wind.
During peak renewable generation, especially when solar production is high, the batteries will absorb excess electricity. Later, when demand increases in the evening, this stored energy can flow back into the grid.
This process helps balance electricity supply and demand, making renewable energy more reliable.
B2U specializes in second-life battery storage technology. They will manage the batteries during their second use and ensure proper recycling when they reach the end of their life.
Here’s a picture to show how B2U’s storage works.
This collaboration creates a complete lifecycle pathway for EV batteries—from vehicle use to energy storage and finally recycling.
Supporting Growing Demand for Battery Storage
This initiative comes at a time of rapid growth in renewable energy and battery storage in the U.S.
- According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), developers plan to add 86 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale electricity generation capacity by 2026. If completed, it would be a record increase.
Solar energy will account for over half of these additions, with battery storage the second-largest category. Wind energy also plays a significant role in this growth.
In 2025, the U.S. power sector added 53 GW of new capacity, the highest since 2002. Meanwhile, battery storage installations keep increasing.
- They also expect to add about 24 GW of utility-scale battery storage in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 15 GW installed in 2025. Over the last five years, more than 40 GW of battery storage capacity has been added to the grid.
Texas, California, and Arizona are expected to account for around 80% of the planned battery storage in 2026.
The Grid Advantage of Reusing EV Batteries
Repurposing EV batteries offers crucial benefits for power systems and communities.
First, it extends the useful life of battery materials. Making lithium-ion batteries requires a lot of critical minerals and energy. Second-use batteries maximize the value of those materials.
Second, second-life batteries can lower energy storage costs. Since the batteries have already served in transportation, utilities can access storage capacity at lower costs than buying new systems.
Third, repurposing helps reduce electronic waste. Companies can keep batteries in use for several more years, easing pressure on waste management.
- Most importantly, battery storage boosts grid reliability. Renewable sources like solar and wind don’t produce electricity constantly. Energy storage systems fill this gap by storing power when production is high and delivering it when demand rises.
As renewable energy grows, these storage systems will be vital for stable electricity networks.
Freeman Hall, CEO of B2U Storage Solutions, said:
“This agreement marks a significant milestone in B2U’s mission to provide integrated repurposing services to the automotive industry. By extending the use of these batteries as grid storage, we are monetizing the full potential of EV batteries, now providing crucial stability to the power grid as energy demand continues to grow.”
First Deployments Planned for Texas and California
The first battery storage projects in the Waymo-B2U partnership will focus on Texas and California. Waymo already provides public autonomous ride-hailing services in these states.
Both states lead in renewable energy deployment. California increasingly relies on clean electricity and often has periods where renewable generation exceeds demand. Texas continues to lead the nation in new solar installations.
Waymo plans to repurpose old EV batteries into stationary storage systems. This will help manage renewable energy growth and improve local electricity infrastructure.
The company believes this initiative could deploy hundreds of megawatts of storage capacity in these regions. As autonomous EVs retire, their batteries could continue to provide value long after leaving the road.
This partnership shows how transportation electrification and clean energy can work together. Instead of viewing used EV batteries as waste, Waymo and B2U are transforming them into valuable energy assets. These assets support grid reliability, renewable energy integration, and a sustainable circular economy.
Waymo’s Broader Sustainability Efforts
The battery repurposing program is part of Waymo’s larger sustainability strategy. The company operates one of the largest fleets of fully autonomous electric vehicles, providing over 500,000 paid EV trips each week. These trips help cut emissions by replacing conventional vehicles with electric ones.
- Waymo estimates that every 500,000 weekly trips prevent about 530 tons of carbon dioxide emissions.
It also measures emissions avoided through its autonomous electric service. This framework evaluates the environmental benefits of electric, autonomous, and shared mobility solutions.
Additionally, the company reports its greenhouse gas emissions through parent company Alphabet as part of broader environmental efforts.
The post Waymo and B2U Unlock a Second Life for EV Batteries with Grid-Scale Storage appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon removal is moving beyond pilot projects. A new agreement between JPMorgan Chase and Charm Industrial shows how the sector is entering a new phase. The deal combines carbon removal credit purchases with financing support, helping expand future supply while reducing project risk.
Under the agreement, JPMorgan will purchase 61,500 metric tons of carbon removal credits from Charm Industrial. The bank will also provide financing support to help the company grow its operations.
The deal highlights a broader trend. Large financial institutions are starting to view carbon removal not only as a climate tool but also as a market with long-term growth potential.
As net-zero deadlines approach, demand for high-quality carbon removal credits is rising. Companies are looking for solutions that deliver measurable climate benefits and long-term carbon storage.
Taylor Wright, Head of Operational Sustainability at JPMorganChase, remarked:
“Our initial purchase with Charm marked an important step as we expanded our ambition in carbon removal and refined how we assess quality and deliver real impact across our portfolio. This new purchase—bringing our total to 90,000 tons—together with financial support from our business, reflects how our portfolio has matured over time and Charm’s track record of delivering measurable, durable outcomes across its projects.”
Carbon Removal Becomes a Bigger Part of Net Zero
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is different from traditional carbon offsets. Many offsets focus on avoiding emissions. Carbon removal takes carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and stores it for the long term.
Most climate experts agree that emissions cuts alone will not be enough to meet global climate goals. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C require large-scale carbon removal.
Today, the novel technological market remains small. Global demand for these engineered carbon removals is still below 10 million metric tons per year, according to CDR.fyi.
However, the State of Carbon Dioxide Removal Report shows that total global removals—mostly from forestry—already sit at 2.2 billion tons. Looking forward, IPCC climate pathways project that total global demand will need to reach billions of tons annually by mid-century to meet net-zero targets.
That growth is expected to come from sectors such as aviation, steel, cement, and shipping. These industries are difficult to fully decarbonize and will likely need carbon removal to address remaining emissions. Thus, investors and financial institutions are paying closer attention to the sector.
Inside JPMorgan’s Growing Climate Strategy
The agreement also fits JPMorgan’s broader climate strategy. The bank has committed to aligning key parts of its financing portfolio with net-zero emissions by 2050. It has also set emissions reduction targets across sectors including power generation, oil and gas, aviation, shipping, and automotive manufacturing.
In addition, JPMorgan has pledged to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion toward sustainable development initiatives by 2030. That includes $1 trillion dedicated to climate action and green solutions. Carbon removal is becoming an important part of those efforts.
Many companies can reduce most of their emissions through clean energy, efficiency improvements, and new technologies. However, some emissions are likely to remain. Carbon removal is expected to help address these residual emissions.
The structure of the JPMorgan-Charm deal is also notable. Instead of only purchasing carbon credits, the bank is helping support future production capacity. This approach gives developers access to capital while helping buyers secure future carbon removal supply.
Peter Reinhardt, CEO and Co-Founder of Charm Industrial, stated:
“JPMorganChase is helping build the infrastructure for a permanent carbon removal industry. Having a sophisticated, mission-aligned financial institution come back for a second, larger purchase while also stepping up with growth capital is exactly the kind of validation that tells us we’re on the right path.”
Charm’s Way: Turning Farm Waste Into Permanent Carbon Storage
Charm Industrial uses a process known as biomass carbon removal and storage. The company collects agricultural waste, including crop residues that would otherwise decompose or be burned. It converts this material into a carbon-rich bio-oil through a process called fast pyrolysis.
The bio-oil is then injected deep underground for long-term storage. This method is designed to keep carbon locked away for hundreds or even thousands of years.
One advantage is that the process can use existing energy infrastructure. Storage wells, transportation systems, and other equipment already used in the energy sector can often be adapted for carbon storage.
Charm has become one of the leading companies in the sector. The company says it has already delivered more than 150,000 metric tons of carbon removal to customers, making it one of the world’s largest suppliers of durable carbon removal credits.
While the technology continues to develop, many experts see biomass carbon removal as one of the more mature engineered carbon removal pathways available today.
The Carbon Removal Supply Crunch Is Emerging
Corporate demand for carbon removal continues to increase. Technology companies have been among the biggest buyers. Many have net-zero goals and are looking for ways to address emissions that cannot be eliminated through renewable energy or operational improvements.
Programs such as Frontier have also helped accelerate the market. The initiative, backed by major technology companies, commits funding to help scale carbon removal technologies.
Yet, supply remains limited. Novel or engineered solutions contribute only 0.1%, roughly 2.2 million metric tons, to the physical supply.
Analysts at McKinsey estimate global demand for carbon removals could reach 100 million metric tons per year by 2030 and grow 100-fold by 2050. Current delivery volumes are only a small fraction of that level. CDR.fyi data shows only 1.5 million metric tons were delievered as of June 2026.
This gap between supply and demand is pushing buyers to sign long-term agreements years before credits are delivered. That trend is creating new opportunities for financing and investment.
Why Capital Could Unlock the Next Wave of Growth
One of the most important aspects of the JPMorgan-Charm agreement is the financing component.
Carbon removal projects often need large upfront investments. Companies must build infrastructure, secure storage sites, and establish monitoring systems before generating significant revenue.
New financing models are helping address this challenge. These include:
- Long-term carbon removal purchase agreements,
- Advance market commitments,
- Project financing backed by future credit deliveries, and
- Blended finance structures that combine different sources of capital.
The approach resembles the early growth of renewable energy. Long-term power purchase agreements helped wind and solar developers secure financing and expand rapidly.
Many industry observers believe carbon removal could follow a similar path. The involvement of a major institution like JPMorgan suggests the market is beginning to mature.
From Climate Niche to Investable Market
The JPMorgan-Charm Industrial agreement shows how climate finance is evolving. Companies are no longer focused only on buying carbon credits. Increasingly, they are investing in the systems needed to produce those credits at scale.
Most net-zero pathways still require large amounts of carbon removal to balance emissions from hard-to-abate industries. The challenge now is building enough capacity to meet future demand.
Technology is advancing. Corporate demand is growing. Financing is becoming more available. Together, these trends are helping move carbon removal from a niche climate solution toward a larger and more established market.
The post JPMorgan Backs Carbon Removal Growth With New Charm Industrial Deal appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
SMRs Set for Breakout: Global Nuclear Capacity Forecast to Jump Nearly Sixfold by 2030
Small modular reactors (SMRs) are moving from concept to commercial reality. A new forecast from GlobalData suggests global SMR capacity could increase nearly sixfold between 2025 and 2030.
The projection reflects rising confidence in advanced nuclear technology as countries search for reliable, low-carbon electricity. This demand is being driven by electrification, artificial intelligence (AI), data center growth, and industrial decarbonization.
For years, SMRs were seen as a long-term idea. That view is now shifting. Governments are updating nuclear policies. Regulators are speeding up licensing reviews. Utilities are forming partnerships with technology developers.
At the same time, electricity demand is rising sharply, strengthening the case for firm power sources capable of operating 24/7. This momentum comes as countries try to meet net-zero targets while also ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies.
Why SMRs Are Gaining Momentum
SMRs are nuclear reactors that typically produce up to 300 megawatts (MW) of electricity per unit. Unlike large nuclear plants, they are designed to be built in factories and assembled on site.
Supporters say this modular approach can reduce construction time, improve cost control, and make deployment more flexible. SMRs can also be added in phases, depending on demand growth.
GlobalData’s forecast reflects a wider revival in nuclear energy. The firm expects global nuclear capacity to grow steadily over the next decade, by almost sixfold from 2025 to 2030. That increase could even reach a hundredfold by 2040. Cleaner energy goals, policy backing, and increasing demand for stable baseload electricity will support this growth.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also expects strong long-term growth. In its Announced Pledges Scenario, the IEA predicts over 1,000 SMRs to be used worldwide by 2050. This would add up to about 120 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. It also estimates SMR investment could rise from about $5 billion today to more than $25 billion by 2030.
Meanwhile, major SMR projects are moving forward. GE Hitachi’s BWRX-300 design will be used at Ontario Power Generation’s Darlington site in Canada. This is one of the most advanced SMR projects currently in planning.
Holtec International is also advancing plans to install SMR-300 reactors at the Palisades site in Michigan. The company has outlined a long-term vision that could scale SMR capacity across North America to as much as 10 GW in the coming decades.
These early projects are important. They will test cost, speed, and performance. Their results will help determine how quickly SMRs can scale globally.
Nuclear Power’s Quiet Climate Comeback
As countries move toward net-zero targets, nuclear energy is receiving renewed attention as a low-emissions power source.
According to the IEA, nuclear is the world’s second-largest source of low-emissions electricity after hydropower. In 2024, more than 410 reactors in over 30 countries supplied about 9% of global electricity. Nuclear also generated more low-carbon electricity than wind and significantly more than solar.
- Since 1971, nuclear power has helped avoid roughly 72 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions by reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
This climate contribution is becoming more important as electricity demand rises and countries retire coal plants. The IEA expects global nuclear generation to reach a record high in 2025, supported by reactor restarts in Japan, maintenance work in France, and new builds in Asia.
More than 60 reactors are currently under construction worldwide, adding over 70 GW of new capacity.
SMRs could strengthen this role further. Their smaller size makes them suitable for regions where large nuclear plants are not practical. They may also replace aging coal plants by using existing grid infrastructure.
In addition, SMRs are being considered for industrial uses such as hydrogen production, mining, and heavy manufacturing, where steady heat and power are required.
Big Tech and Data Centers Drive New Power Demand
One of the strongest drivers for SMR growth is the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data centers. AI systems require large amounts of electricity. Training and operating these systems depend on high-performance computing infrastructure that runs continuously. This is pushing electricity demand higher in key technology hubs.
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for AI-related capital spending by major hyperscalers. The bank now expects Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet to invest about $5.3 trillion between 2025 and 2030, up from a previous estimate of $4.5 trillion. A large share of this spending will go into AI infrastructure, data centers, and supporting energy systems.
Moreover, Goldman Sachs Research estimates global data center electricity demand could increase by as much as 165% by 2030 compared with 2023 levels.
This surge in demand is changing energy planning. While renewable energy remains central to corporate climate strategies, many technology companies are also looking for stable, round-the-clock power sources.
SMRs are increasingly viewed as a potential solution because they can provide constant power without weather dependence. Unlike wind or solar, nuclear plants can operate day and night continuously. This reliability is becoming more important as AI workloads grow and grids face higher stress.
As a result, several SMR developers are now targeting data center operators as future customers, alongside traditional utilities.
The First Wave of SMR Projects Breaks Ground
The SMR industry is now entering a more practical phase, with several flagship projects moving toward construction and deployment.
In Canada, Ontario Power Generation is advancing the first commercial deployment of GE Hitachi’s BWRX-300 reactor at the Darlington site. This project is widely seen as a key test case for SMR commercialization in North America.
In the United States, TerraPower continues development of its Natrium reactor in Wyoming. The project, backed by Bill Gates, combines nuclear generation with advanced energy storage. This design aims to improve flexibility and help balance electricity grids with growing renewable energy penetration.
These developments mark an important shift. The industry is moving beyond design and licensing discussions and into construction, financing, and real-world deployment.
The Roadblocks on the Nuclear Revival Path
Despite strong momentum, SMRs still face major challenges.
- Cost remains the most important issue. Early projects must prove that factory-based construction can reliably reduce total costs compared with traditional nuclear plants.
- Regulatory approval is another barrier. Even though licensing frameworks are improving, nuclear projects still require long review timelines in most countries.
- Fuel supply is also a concern. Many advanced SMR designs depend on high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU), but global supply chains are still limited.
- There are also broader concerns around nuclear waste management and public acceptance, which continue to influence project timelines in several regions.
These challenges explain why some analysts remain cautious about near-term deployment, even while long-term forecasts are becoming more positive.
Outlook: A Defining Decade for SMRs
The next five years could be decisive for SMRs. Global momentum is being driven by several overlapping trends. Electricity demand is rising. AI growth is accelerating. Countries are committing to net-zero targets. Energy security has become a national priority. At the same time, nuclear technology is improving.
GlobalData’s forecast of a nearly sixfold increase in SMR capacity by 2030 reflects growing confidence that the sector is approaching commercial scale.
While SMRs are still in the early stages of deployment, progress in Canada, the United States, China, and other regions suggests the industry is moving closer to wider adoption.
If current projects succeed, SMRs could become an important part of the global low-carbon energy mix. They may help support grid stability, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and provide the steady power needed for a more electrified and digital economy.
The post SMRs Set for Breakout: Global Nuclear Capacity Forecast to Jump Nearly Sixfold by 2030 appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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