As the United States takes the reins of the G20 and makes economic growth the top priority, the Trump administration is expected to use its year in charge to promote fossil fuels while shifting the focus away from climate action and clean energy.
With Washington assuming the presidency of the group of the world’s largest economies for the first time since 2009, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio opened with a notably blunt statement, declaring that “unlocking affordable and secure energy supply chains” would be one of three key themes, alongside deregulation and new technologies.
Although renewables are widely recognised as central to building a cost-effective and reliable energy system, that is not going to be the message from the US G20 presidency, experts said.
“They clearly want to push a fossil fuels-oriented agenda and one that’s also critical of green and climate technologies,” said David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative at the World Resources Institute (WRI).
Attack on South Africa
Washington’s rhetoric marks a clear shift from the tone set by the past year’s G20 host, South Africa, which placed climate action – particularly climate finance and the escalating impacts of global warming – at the centre of its diplomacy.
The urgency of climate action and a commitment to limit global warming to below 1.5C were recognised in a final declaration endorsed by leaders attending November’s summit in Johannesburg, which the US boycotted.
After the official handover of the presidency, the Trump administration mounted an all-out attack on South Africa with whom its relations were already sour. All pre-existing content was scrubbed from the G20 official website and replaced with a picture of the US president alongside the message “the best is yet to come”.
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Then, in an unprecedented step, Rubio unilaterally announced the exclusion of South Africa from next year’s G20 meetings. In addition to repeating unfounded allegations of racism by the South African government against the country’s white Afrikaner minority, the US State Secretary attacked South Africa’s G20 as an exercise in “radical agendas” – including climate change – that ignored the US objections.
Rejecting the accusations, South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Ronald Lamola told Rubio the country remained “open to dialogue”, but “would not seek your approval to our path”.
US push for fossil fuel expansion
Max Yoeli, a senior US research fellow at Chatham House, said that, while the South African presidency focused on solidarity and equality, the US will likely pursue its own national interests with a more transactional approach at the G20.
On energy, nearly a year since his return to office, President Trump has left no doubt about his administration’s strong backing for US fossil fuels, while labelling clean energy a “scam” and taking steps to actively halt its rollout across the country.
The new US national security strategy, published last week, said that restoring American energy dominance in oil, gas, coal and nuclear is a top strategic priority. The expansion of energy exports would “deepen relationships with allies while curtailing the influence of adversaries”, it added. The US is already the world’s largest producer and leading exporter of both oil and gas.
Yoeli said the Trump administration’s domestic regulatory agenda is very tilted to expanding drilling to boost hydrocarbons, while adding barriers to wind and solar deployment and slowing utility-scale clean energy rollout. “It is pretty clear they will pull in the same direction [at the G20],” he noted.
G20 tensions on energy and climate
What the US government could achieve concretely at the G20 is unclear. WRI’s Waskow said the Trump administration could try and insert pro-fossil fuel language and remove references to climate change in the official statements and communiques that are the main outputs of G20 summits.
But he predicted most other G20 member governments would mount a strong pushback. “It’s really quite unimaginable that others would be ready to go along with that agenda,” Waskow added.
The other six most advanced economies, including European countries, Canada and Japan, remain committed to tackling climate change and cutting greenhouse gas emissions – at least on paper.
Meanwhile, the BRICS group of the largest emerging economies called for a stronger response to climate change and reaffirmed their commitment to “just” energy transitions at a leaders’ summit last July. Despite this, the joint declaration also singled out fossil fuels’ “important role in the world’s energy mix”.
Against this geopolitical backdrop, it is possible that countries might be unable to reach consensus on a joint G20 declaration and the US could try to insert its opposition to climate action into a chair’s summary, Waskow said.
Chatham House’s Yoeli said that, with the Trump administration very focused on perceptions of its behaviour, it will be interesting to see how it balances rhetoric with concrete outcomes at the G20.
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For the first time, new-energy vehicles (NEVs) made up 67% of new car sales in China in September, according to the latest data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
The figures show that NEVs, which include battery electric cars and plug-in hybrids, captured a record share of sales, even though fewer were sold than last year.
This is because sales of combustion-engine cars are falling steeply, a trend that the CPCA has attributed to rising petrol prices following the start of the Hormuz crisis.
Indeed, sales of fuel-only cars were down 31% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026, with plug-in hybrid sales down 26% – whereas battery EV sales were only down 4%.
One analyst tells Carbon Brief that China’s rapidly growing EV fleet has offset demand for 143m barrels of oil since the start of the Hormuz crisis.
Another says that the crisis is “reinforcing China’s electrification of road transport”.
Meanwhile, amid slowing domestic sales, Chinese carmakers’ exports of NEVs more than doubled [in 2026 to date / in September] from a year earlier.
NEV record
A record two out of every three cars sold in September in China were NEVs, according to CPCA data, as shown in the figure below.
(NEVs predominantly include battery electric vehicles – BEVs – and plug-in hybrids – PHEVs. BEVs only run on electricity, whereas PHEVs also have a combustion engine.)
This marks a rapid rise for NEVs from just 6% of new car sales in 2020 up to 58% in 2026 to date – and a record 67% in the month of September.
This year, NEVs’ share of sales has also bounced back from a low of 39% in January, after the full purchase tax exemption that had been in place for more than a decade came to an end in December 2025.
The gain in NEV share in 2026 has come amid a slowdown across the wider domestic passenger-car market, which has hit sales of combustion-engine vehicles particularly hard.
This September, passenger-car retail sales across all categories declined, with overall sales volumes falling 28% year-on-year.
The contraction was led by combustion-engine vehicles, which saw sales fall 43% year-on-year in September and 31% in 2026 to date.
However, sales of PHEVs also fell by 36% year-on-year in September and by 26% in 2026 to date. By comparison, BEVs performed better, although sales still declined 8.5% from a year earlier in September and 4% in 2026 to date.
As a result, NEV sales overall fell by 17% in September and 13% in 2026 to date.
While the market changes in 2026 to date were particularly dramatic, they reflect a broad continuation of trends seen over the past decade.
Indeed, sales of combustion-engine cars in China peaked in 2017 and they have been declining ever since, shown in the figure below.
Impact of Hormuz
Part of the reason for the advance of NEVs in 2026, said Chinese technology news outlet OFweek, was petrol cars “giving up market share” as they were outperformed by electric alternatives.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the CPCA, cited higher petrol prices as an explanation for September’s weak combustion-car sales, in comments to financial news outlet National Business Daily.
Imports of oil into China in January-September have fallen 15% compared to 2025, equivalent to 470m barrels, as ongoing conflict tightened supply and drove up prices.
China’s passenger-car NEV fleet has displaced 143m barrels of oil so far during the strait of Hormuz crisis, Euan Graham, senior energy analyst at thinktank Ember, tells Carbon Brief.
EVs “accounted for 12% of the decrease in China’s oil use post-Hormuz”, according to an estimate provided to thinktank the Brookings Institute by an unnamed analyst.
Erica Downs, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, tells Carbon Brief that the strait of Hormuz crisis and higher oil prices are “reinforcing China’s electrification of road transport”.
She says the “world’s largest oil supply disruption” vindicates China’s early bet on EVs, which was partly driven by concerns about oil-supply security.
NEV demand down
Nevertheless, NEV sales have fallen year-on-year, albeit at a slower rate than overall car sales. The growth in NEV market share has also been decelerating.
Zhang Yichao, a partner at consulting firm AlixPartners, tells Carbon Brief that NEVs benefit from government trade-in policies and a “strong pipeline” of new models, particularly those involving innovation.
He says these factors help explain why NEVs sales have fallen at a slower rate to their combustion-car counterparts.
Cui told the state-run China National Radio that the fall for NEVs and for cars overall in September 2026, is also due to a high baseline of sales from the same month in 2025, as well as changes to trade-in policies and disruptions from the holiday period.
Other factors, says consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, are the weakened demand due to “demand pull-forward” in 2025 caused by the end of subsidies, as well as “tighter financing conditions”.
Zhang tells Carbon Brief he does not “see much more room ahead” for further growth in NEVs’ market share.
He adds that, in his view, their share in China is unlikely to exceed 80%, as some premium-market segments and specific use cases will continue to require combustion-engine vehicles.
Exports surge
Meanwhile, while domestic NEV retail sales fell 17% in September 2026, exports more than doubled, increasing 164% year-on-year, according to the CPCA.
This extends the decline in domestic sales and very strong growth in exports seen across 2026 to date, as shown in the figure below.
In September, 1,084,000 NEVs were sold domestically in China, while 558,000 NEVs were exported.
Exports are becoming increasingly important to Chinese carmakers, in the face of weaker domestic demand and cut-throat industrial competition.
The CPCA says exports have become “a core priority” for some carmakers.