There is a “massive gap between rhetoric and reality” that must be closed by new climate pledges being drafted under the Paris Agreement, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) says.
In the 15th edition of its annual “emissions gap” report, the UNEP calls for “no more hot air” as countries approach the February 2025 deadline to submit their next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) setting mitigation targets for 2035.
These NDCs “must deliver a quantum leap in ambition in tandem with accelerated mitigation action in this decade”, the report says.
The report charts the “gap” between where emissions are headed under current policies and commitments over the coming decade, compared to what is needed to meet the Paris goal of limiting global warming to “well below” 2C and pursuing efforts to stay under 1.5C.
It highlights that greenhouse gas emissions reached record levels in 2023, up 1.3% from 2022, and rising notably faster than the average over the past decade.
The report warns that both progress and ambition have “plateaued” in recent years, with relatively little of substance occurring since the pledges made at COP26 in 2021. And many countries are not even on track to meet their existing NDCs, with current policy projections from G20 nations exceeding NDC commitments by a collective 1bn tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions (in carbon dioxide equivalent, CO2e) in 2030.
Current policies put the world on track for 2.9C of warming by 2100, the report finds – though this could be reduced to 2.4-2.6C, if all existing NDCs are met.
But unless global emissions in 2030 are brought below the levels implied by current NDCs, a pathway to 1.5C with no or limited overshoot becomes “impossible”, the report says, and “strongly” increases the challenge of limiting warming to 2C.
While the magnitude of the challenge is “indisputable”, there are “abundant opportunities for accelerating mitigation”, the report says. It finds that global emissions could be cut by 54% by 2030 and 72% by 2035 at a cost of less than $200 per tonne of CO2.
This indicates that the gap between commitments and current policies is a result of a lack of policy support rather than more fundamental barriers to decarbonisation.
(For previous reports, see Carbon Brief’s detailed coverage in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023.)
Global greenhouse gas emissions at record levels
The UNEP report finds that human emissions of greenhouse gases – CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases (F-gases) – reached a record 57.1bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2023.
The chart below shows how fossil CO2 (black) is by far the largest contributor to annual emissions and the main driver of the increase in recent decades, with methane (grey) playing the second largest role.
Global emissions grew 1.3% (0.7 GtCO2e) in 2023, compared with 2022 levels – a rate notably faster than that over the prior decade (2010-19, at 0.8 GtCO2e per year).
(As the report notes, these numbers do not include many of the climate-related impacts on greenhouse gas emissions that are not a result of direct human interventions – such as the catastrophic Canadian wildfires in 2023. The ability of the biosphere to absorb a portion of human emissions is broadly expected to weaken under scenarios where the world does not rapidly reduce emissions.)
These emissions were driven by energy use, industrial process emissions and land-use change across a variety of sectors.
As the chart below shows, electricity generation was the largest driver of greenhouse gas emissions globally in 2023, responsible for approximately 26% of the total. Other major contributors were transportation (15%), industry (11%), fossil-fuel production (10%) and industrial processes (9%).
The report finds that global aviation had the largest relative increase in emissions, increasing 19.5% between 2022 and 2023 as the sector recovered from Covid-era lows. Fossil-fuel production emissions, road transportation and industrial process emissions also increased notably from 2022.
The authors note that the fossil share of generation is starting to decrease in the power sector as solar and wind expand rapidly, with capacity additions increasing by 50% in 2023. Global investment in renewable power, grids and storage is now considerably higher than global investment in oil, gas and coal.
Despite rapid growth in clean energy, power-sector emissions have yet to peak, with new clean additions globally not quite keeping up with the rate of demand growth. However, the report notes that both power-sector emissions and overall global greenhouse emissions are expected to peak in the next few years, even if they did not in 2023.
An even wider emissions gap
The primary focus of this edition of the report is tracking the gap between where the world is heading today – both under current policies and near-term commitments – and what would be needed to meet Paris Agreement goals of limit warming to well-below 2C.
However, since the 2023 report, there have not been any notable changes in country pledges or policies – and global emissions continued to grow.
This means that the emissions gap is wider than it was last year and the world is further off track from its climate goals.
The report explores a number of different future emissions scenarios including: those under policies in place today; emissions if Paris Agreement NDCs are met; emissions if both NDCs and national-level net-zero pledges are met; and emissions required under scenarios that limit warming to below 2C and to 1.5C with no or limited overshoot by 2100.
While these NDCs – alongside other policies enacted by countries – have helped move the world away from some of the darkest climate futures that seemed plausible a decade ago, the gap continues to grow between where the world is today and a path to meeting the Paris Agreement.
The report finds an emissions gap in 2030 of around 14GtCO2e between where the world is headed if countries achieve their “unconditional” NDCs (that is, those not conditioned on “climate finance” or other external assistance) – shown by the mid-blue line – and an emissions pathway that limits warming to below 2C (defined in the report as a >66% chance of avoiding 2C warming) – shown by as the pale red line.
The gap is even larger – around 22GtCO2e – between unconditional NDCs and a scenario consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C by the end of the century (red line). If conditional NDCs are fully implemented in addition to unconditional ones (light blue line), this emissions gap would shrink by around 3GtCO2e in 2030 for both the 2C and 1.5C scenarios.
If NDCs are not strengthened by 2035, this gap would grow to 18GtCO2e for keeping warming below 2C and 29GtCO2e for 1.5C, the report finds. In the absence of a ratcheting up of commitments in recent years, limiting warming to 1.5C with no or low overshoot is now much more difficult to achieve. Further delays could similarly imperil the 2C target.
In addition, many countries are “not even on track to deliver on their current NDCs” today, the report says. Major countries, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, the UK and the US, are all off track to meet their targets under existing policies. (Several of those that are on track had set weak targets, it adds.)
Countries are expected to update their NDCs by February 2025 and these should include mitigation targets up to the end of 2035 (compared to the 2030 date for the initial round of Paris NDCs).
However, the ability of post-2030 commitments to put the world on track to limit warming to below 2C is highly dependent on action pre-2030. As the report shows, strong climate action starting in 2024 would require a 4% reduction per year on average, while doing so in 2030 would increase this to 8% per year.
An upward revision of current policy warming
The UNEP report author team has been one of the main groups assessing the range of warming impacts the world could expect under current policies. However, their estimate has continued to increase over the past three reports – from 2.6C in 2022 to 2.7C in 2023 and 2.9C in 2024. This reflects both continued increases in global greenhouse gas emissions and methodology updates by UNEP.
The figure below compares these estimates between the 2022 (dark blue) 2023 (mid blue blue) and 2024 (light blue) versions of the UNEP report. Compared to the 2023 report, current policy warming outcomes increased notably, unconditional NDC outcomes were unchanged, conditional NDC warming increased slightly, and net-zero pledge warming decreased slightly.
The report finds that a continuation of current policies would result in a 100% chance of exceeding 1.5C, a 97% chance of exceeding 2C and a 37% chance of exceeding 3C by 2100. (And the world will continue to warm after 2100 as long as CO2 emissions remain above (net) zero.)
Under NDCs, the odds of exceeding 1.5C remains at 100%, while there is a 94% chance of exceeding 2C by 2100 under unconditional NDCs and a 79% chance under conditional NDCs.
If all country net-zero pledges are implemented (which, the report notes, few, if any, countries are on track to achieve today), these likelihoods are reduced to a 77% chance of exceeding 1.5C, a 20% chance of exceeding 2C and a near-zero chance of exceeding 3C.
The figure below compares the latest UNEP estimates (mid blue bars) to others in the literature – the emissions scenarios featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment report (dark blue), estimates published by Climate Action Tracker (light blue), and the IEA’s 2024 World Energy Outlook (grey).
Current policy outcomes are broadly in-line with the IPCC’s middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 scenario, though a notable gap has developed in recent years between UNEP and IEA estimates. While the three were nearly identical in 2021, the UNEP’s current policy warming estimate has increased while the IEA’s has decreased.
The UNEP provides a high-end warming estimate for its scenarios that is notably higher than that of other groups. This is because its approach includes both future emissions uncertainties associated with each scenario, plus the range of possible climate system responses from climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks. While the latter can be expressed probabilistically, the likelihood of future emissions outcomes under these scenarios are more difficult to assess.
High potential for deep emissions cuts
While countries are far from being n track to meet Paris Agreement goals today, the new report explores what it would entail – and cost – to close the emissions gap.
They find that, across all sectors of the economy, global emissions could be reduced by 31GtCO2e by 2030 (54% below current policy levels) for a cost of less than $200 per tonne of CO2. In 2035 this increases to 41GtCO2e (a 72% reduction from current policy levels), reflecting expected continued cost declines of mitigation technologies.
The figure below, taken from the report, shows the assessed mitigation potential for $200 per tonne of CO2 or below for each different sector of the economy.
The energy sector has the largest potential for low-cost decarbonisation at 12GtCO2e/yr in 2030 and 15GtCO2e/yr in 2035, largely driven by the replacement of fossil fuel electricity production with clean energy sources.
Agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU sector) have the second largest potential for decarbonisation, with forestry making up the largest component of this.
While substantial increases in investments and finance are required to accelerate mitigation across all of these sectors, the report shows that deep decarbonisation is achievable in the next decade at a reasonable cost.
Ultimately, the report highlights that the growing emissions gap reflects a lack of political will by countries to address emissions, rather than any fundamental constraint on the world’s ability to rapidly mitigate.
The post UNEP: New climate pledges need ‘quantum leap’ in ambition to deliver Paris goals appeared first on Carbon Brief.
UNEP: New climate pledges need ‘quantum leap’ in ambition to deliver Paris goals
Em Fenton is Senior Director of Climate Diplomacy at Opportunity Green, supporting climate-vulnerable countries in multilateral negotiations, such as the International Maritime Organization.
Governments are gathering in London over the next two weeks to advance the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in a global effort to reduce emissions from international shipping. The meeting may not make headlines outside climate circles, but what happens there matters far beyond shipping.
The international shipping sector underpins around 80% of global trade and contributes roughly 3% of global annual emissions.
The NZF represents the best, most equitable solution currently viable to address this issue and, last April, a large majority of countries voted to put it forward for formal adoption through the IMO’s process.
The framework is a compromise from the most ambitious possible design, but it still represents a hard-fought victory for multilateralism, with countries coming together to create a solution aimed at the global best interest and providing a solid foundation for a just and equitable transition.
It combines a technical fuel standard (setting emissions limits on the fuels used in ships) and an economic element that puts a price on emissions from international shipping.
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A system under attack
With a global swing towards nationalism in recent years, some countries are increasingly placing domestic priorities over global climate action, despite legal obligations to act. And in doing so, they are overlooking the reality that abandoning multilateral decarbonisation efforts will ultimately exacerbate domestic challenges.
This trend is most notable the US’s withdrawal or removal of support from the Paris Agreement, the WHO and the UN Human Rights Council, but is also playing out in other areas, such as India’s decision to withdraw its bid to host COP33. All this begs the question: just how resilient is multilateralism in a period of intense geopolitical tension?
The system was built on two assumptions that now appear increasingly fragile: that countries would act through multilateral efforts in the collective interest; and that agreed action would be implemented at a scale and pace commensurate with need.
Coupled with this drift from its central purpose is an observable decline in its effectiveness across all five domains in which it operates – but most notably in climate action.
Because international shipping is inherently global and cannot be meaningfully regulated through unilateral or regional action, the IMO is one of the few institutions capable of delivering effective decarbonisation at scale. Failure to make progress at the IMO therefore sends a powerful signal about the limits of international cooperation more broadly, particularly on climate action.
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Within this context, progress has faced three distinct forms of resistance: rejection of the need for action, procedural delay or obstruction, and efforts to weaken outcomes to the point where ‘success is effectively meaningless.
At recent IMO meetings, these dynamics have become more pronounced, culminating in a successful move by the US and Saudi Arabia last October to delay the formal decision to adopt the NZF by a year.
The matter now sits in procedural limbo. This was further complicated by abstentions from two European Union countries (Greece and Cyprus), despite the broader EU’s support for adoption. Greece has subsequently affirmed their support for the US and Saudi position.
These procedural delays were accompanied by threats from the US administration of retaliatory measures, including tariffs, withdrawal of visa rights, or imposing fees on nationals visiting US ports.
Making the case for multilateralism
The stakes here extend well beyond shipping.
For multilateralism to remain meaningful, it must be able to produce binding outcomes – even when powerful states object. The IMO process is one of the few remaining forums where every country’s voice carries equal weight and no single state can exercise a veto.
If that process can be undermined through procedural delay and coercive pressure, it sets a precedent for other multilateral negotiations, particularly in climate governance.
This week in London, countries have a concrete opportunity to demonstrate that multilateralism still works – by being present in the room and actively supporting climate ambition.
This remains the most effective way to achieve climate goals, create the economic conditions for investment in the maritime transition, move away from an overreliance on fossil fuels, and protect the very foundations of multilateralism.
The alternative is not just a failure for shipping; it is a signal to every difficult negotiation that follows that obstruction works.
The post This week’s IMO green shipping talks are a test for multilateralism appeared first on Climate Home News.
This week’s IMO green shipping talks are a test for multilateralism
Around 60 governments are due to gather in the Colombian city of Santa Marta this week for what is being billed as the first global summit on phasing out coal, oil and gas, where experts say new coalitions could help speed up the energy transition beyond the slower pace of UN climate talks.
At last year’s COP30 UN conference, a group of some 80 countries backed the idea of a global roadmap away from fossil fuels, but it was blocked by fossil fuel-producing nations. To move past these obstructions, Colombia and the Netherlands decided to convene the fossil fuel phase-out summit, which will host ministers for high-level discussions on April 28 and 29.
The group of countries headed to Santa Marta includes COP31 hosts Australia and Türkiye, as well as European, Latin American, Asian, African and Pacific nations. Some large fossil-fuel producers are on the list, including Canada, Norway, Brazil and Nigeria, but the US, China, India and Russia will not attend.
At this week’s Petersberg Climate Dialogue, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told governments that “when multilateral processes move slowly, concrete alliances of the willing can take us a long way”, in a hint at the voluntary initiatives expected to emerge from the Santa Marta discussions.
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Brazil’s COP30 CEO Ana Toni told journalists this week that UN negotiations can “take a long time”, adding that the Santa Marta summit can start a complementary process to “keep the debate about transitioning away at the highest political level”. Brazil is working on a separate roadmap for a global fossil fuel transition due to be presented ahead of COP31, which will draw on the Santa Marta conclusions as well as submissions from countries and other interested parties.
At a webinar hosted by Climate Home News, Colombia’s environment minister Irene Vélez Torres said the Santa Marta summit is winning “global attention” in part because countries have reached a “breaking point” at UN climate talks, which have been gridlocked by fossil fuel-producing countries.
“There is a natural blockade of those themes in the multilateral agendas,” the Colombian minister said. The recent conflict in the Middle East has added renewed importance to the debate by “showing us that we cannot be dependent on fossil fuels anymore”, she emphasised.
Toni also noted that, in the context of the war in Iran, “if anybody had a doubt, I think now it’s absolutely clear we need to take those very hard steps.”
Several climate ministers at the Petersberg Dialogue – including Türkiye’s COP31 president Murat Kurum – urged countries to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels by boosting renewable energy deployment not only for climate reasons but also for energy security.
The effects of the oil and gas crisis driven by the Iran war, which has cut off exports from the Middle East, are already showing in the real economy. Countries in Africa and Asia are importing record amounts of solar power components from China, in an effort to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
Opportunity for “inflection point”
While the Santa Marta conference will not deliver a major negotiated agreement, observers said it could spur new coalitions and contribute to speeding up the energy transition by exploring the concrete policies and finance needed to drive an equitable shift away from fossil fuels. A summary report of the proceedings is due to be published by June.
WWF’s global climate lead, Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, who served as COP president for Peru in 2014, said in a statement that reducing the world’s dependence on fossil fuels requires “a rapid, global shift to renewable power, smarter grids and efficiency”.
“We need a ‘coalition of the willing’ to show us the way. Santa Marta is an inflection point and an opportunity that we should not miss,” he said.
Natalie Jones, senior policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), said countries have the opportunity to form a “coalition of doers” that sends the message that “the transition is happening, and the countries that are here are the ones making it happen”.
To phase out fossil fuels, developing countries need exit route from “debt trap”
In the lead-up to the conference, a group of Pacific island nations – which have historically championed a 1.5C limit to global warming and a phase-out of fossil fuels – launched a declaration for a “fossil fuel-free Pacific” and urged countries to “support the ongoing development of a comprehensive, robust, actionable global roadmap” away from fossil fuels. Many island economies are still highly dependent on expensive fossil fuel imports, though most are already adding solar, geothermal and other renewables.
Toni noted that several coalitions on fossil fuels already exist – such as the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) in which members commit to phasing out oil and gas domestically or a Dutch-led coalition to phase out fossil fuel subsidies – but these must be strengthened.
Beginning of a process
Aside from governments, the Santa Marta conference will also host Indigenous people and local communities, scientists, cities, unions, green groups and the private sector to share research and recommendations on how to best phase out fossil fuels.
These civil society actors will meet from April 24 to 27 for preliminary discussions that will inform the debate among ministers.
On Friday, scientists are expected to launch a new high-level panel that will provide advice for policy-makers to support the international transition away from fossil fuels, as well as a scientific report laying out key recommendations for governments. According to a draft seen by Carbon Brief, these range from halting fossil fuel expansion to cutting methane emissions from the energy sector and phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.
Another barrier to the clean energy transition that will be on the agenda in Santa Marta is an international system formally known as “investor-state dispute settlement” (ISDS), which enables companies to use trade agreements to sue governments that block private-sector projects like coal mines or oil exploration.
Ahead of the conference, more than 340 civil society organisations signed an open statement saying that ISDS “threatens a just transition from fossil fuels and the urgent need for a social and ecological transformation for people and the planet”. They called on governments to start building a coalition of countries committed to freeing themselves from ISDS, after Colombia announced recently it would withdraw from the system. Doing so will be complicated in practice and require coordinated action among states, experts told Climate Home News.
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Colombian minister Vélez explained that one of the key outcomes from Santa Marta will be to kickstart a longer process that continues next year with a second fossil fuel phase-out conference in the Pacific island state of Tuvalu. Jones of IISD said “this is only the start of a process” in which more nations can decide to participate later.
“Other countries that wish to join this space in good faith would be welcome, so it’s a question of whether fossil fuel producers are ready to have these conversations in all their complexity,” she added.
The post Sixty countries head to Santa Marta to cement coalition for fossil fuel transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/04/23/sixty-countries-head-to-santa-marta-to-cement-coalition-for-fossil-fuel-transition/
High levels of national debt in parts of the Global South could hinder efforts to move away from fossil fuels, a new report warns, as more than 50 countries gather this week in Colombia for the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels.
The report, published by the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative in the lead-up to the flagship conference, argues that the current debt architecture is trapping developing countries in a “feedback loop” in which fossil fuel revenues are needed to service debt, while fossil fuel expansion locks countries into borrowing even more.
The cycle, according to the report, leaves very little fiscal space for highly indebted countries to end their reliance on coal, oil and gas revenues, even when their leaders want to phase out fossil fuels. This is the case for some first-mover countries such as Colombia, which is hosting the conference in Santa Marta.
Amiera Sawas, one of the report’s authors and head of research and policy at the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative, said the conflict in the Middle East is making this “debt injustice and fossil fuel entrapment” even more evident.
“What we have to start understanding is that both fossil fuels and debt are actually extractions from the Global South,” Sawas told the report’s launch during the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings in Washington DC this month. “Many countries are paying more in debt servicing than they are getting in climate finance.”
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Since 2010, low and middle-income countries (LIMCs) have more than doubled their external debt, reaching an all-time high of $8.9 trillion two years ago. They paid about $415 billion in interest on that debt in 2024 – 2.4 times higher than a decade earlier.
At the same time, in some cases like Colombia, Egypt and Jordan, austerity measures agreed as part of IMF and World Bank loan programmes restrict governments from investing in cleaner sources of revenue like renewable energy, the report says.
Leading countries constrained by debt
Colombia – one of the countries leading the global call for a transition away from fossil fuels – is facing precisely such financial barriers to achieving its transition, said Camilo Rodríguez, another of the report’s authors and a research analyst with Oil Change International.
The country has halted all new oil and gas licences and published an energy transition plan estimating transition costs at about 7-10% of its GDP. Yet the government depends on fossil fuel revenues to service its $265-billion public debt, meaning it must find an alternative source of income to cover debt payments.
Rodríguez said debt “is the main barrier nowadays to promote the energy transition and the industrialisation of the economy”.
The South American country has only grown more dependent on fossil fuels over time, as they represented 36% of exports in 2001 and now account for about 52%. Austerity policies still in place after IMF loans have left very little room for investing in Colombia’s energy transition plan, the report says.
Other countries have shown similar patterns. Jordan – despite its staggering public debt equivalent to 90% of GDP – became one of the fastest-growing markets for wind, solar and electric vehicles in the Middle East region. From 2014 to 2021, Jordan went from less than 1% of its electricity generation coming from renewables to 26%, benefiting from the significantly cheaper costs of installing wind and solar power compared with adding fossil fuel capacity.
But Jordan’s high reliance on fossil fuel revenues created an incentive for policymakers to opt for expanding gas projects over renewables, and the country ended up suspending new licences for many solar and wind projects. In 2024, about 40% of government revenues were used to service debt.
“This is not marginal – it is central to the fiscal system. It creates what I would describe as structural fiscal addiction,” said Ali Nasrallah, a policy and research manager at the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. “The state depends on revenues from consumption that is economically, environmentally and socially harmful.”
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Another report by the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative, published in March, argues that debt entrapment in Africa also exacerbates gender injustice. Social consequences from fossil fuel extraction and use – such as displacement of communities or health harm from pollution – can have a substantial effect on local women while, at the same time, states face constraints to increasing social spending to support them.
“African women are facing disproportionate impacts of the fossil fuel industry’s long-running legacy of violence and dispossession,” the report says. “But they are also leading the resistance to it,” it adds, with women-led coalitions in places like Uganda or the Niger Delta challenging major oil and gas projects.
Policy recommendations
As governments head to Santa Marta – where “gaps in the financial and investment system” are on the agenda – the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative recommends building international coalitions to address debt, reforming multilateral financial institutions and increasing funding commitments from donor nations.
The proposed policies include debt cancellation as a way of creating fiscal space in the Global South, ending all international finance for fossil fuel expansion, establishing a binding mechanism on debt resolution at the UN, and advancing green industrialisation to replace fossil fuel revenues.
“To dismantle carbon lock-in and debt at source, we need to recognise collectively that the escalating debt in the Global South is actually an injustice,” said Sawas of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. “We have to name the problem and be honest with ourselves – and that’s where the recommendation of debt cancellation is so critical.”
Comment: Broken debt system must be fixed to confront future climate shocks
As part of the new climate finance goal adopted at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, governments have already agreed to “remove barriers and address dis-enablers” faced by developing countries, including “limited fiscal space” and “unsustainable debt levels”.
Building on this, any plan for a global roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, such as the initiative proposed at COP30 by more than 80 governments, should address the debt crisis in the Global South, Sawas said. One alternative could be financing the rollout of renewables with more public grants rather than loans, she added.
“We need to start properly funding renewable energy and diversification,” she said. “Currently it’s almost impossible for a lot of countries in the Global South to actually make the energy transition, because there’s no support structure.”
The post To phase out fossil fuels, developing countries need exit route from “debt trap” appeared first on Climate Home News.
To phase out fossil fuels, developing countries need exit route from “debt trap”
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