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Global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over the next decade but at a pace “still not nearly fast enough” to avoid the worst climate impacts, the UN’s top climate official warned as a partial assessment of new national climate plans was released.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said global emissions are expected to fall by around 10% by 2035 based on a preliminary assessment of new national climate targets (NDCs) announced by countries that produce nearly 60% of the world’s greenhouse gases.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said that countries should cut their emissions much more rapidly, with a 60% drop from 2019 required by 2035 to limit global warming to 1.5C.

“Ten years after we adopted the Paris Agreement, we can say simply – it is delivering real progress,” said Stiell. “But it must work much faster and fairer, and that acceleration must start now.”

Country delays hamper UN review

Countries are expected to discuss the shortfall in emissions-cutting ambition at next month’s COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, but it is still unclear what form their response will take.

Stiell said COP30 needs to show nations are still fully on board for climate co-operation, as well as accelerating implementation across all economic sectors and connecting climate action to people’s lives.

But with only two weeks to go until leaders arrive in the Amazon city, most nations – including several big emitters – are yet to even publish an updated climate plan, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), after missing multiple deadlines, the last of which was September.

The delay caused a headache for the UN climate officials tasked with producing an official review of emission-cutting targets by the end of this month to inform discussions at COP30. That ‘synthesis report’ was released on Tuesday, alongside Stiell’s speech.

But its authors warned against drawing global conclusions from the numbers it contains because the analysis only covers the 64 countries – responsible for 30% of emissions – that formally submitted their NDCs by the end of September. Since then, a handful more have published their plans, including South Africa and Indonesia.

    An update document is set to be published during COP30, when more NDCs should be submitted.

    In the meantime, Stiell said the UN climate body (UNFCCC) did “some additional calculations” which, on top of formal NDC submissions, drew on 2035 targets touted by nations in various unofficial formats.

    That includes, for example, China, which promised last month during a UN summit in New York to cut emissions by 7-10% from “peak levels”, and the European Union, which announced the bloc’s 2035 target would “range between 66% and 72%” below 1990 levels. Neither has yet published a full NDC.

    This UNFCCC calculation, which unlike the synthesis report has not been published, showed that global emissions are projected to fall by 10% from 2019 levels by 2035.

    US U-turn clouds global outlook

    That headline figure hides a number of uncertainties. Emission-cutting trajectories can change when vague statements are translated into fully fleshed-out climate plans.

    Additionally, the assessment includes the targets submitted by the United States – the world’s second largest emitter – in the final weeks of the Biden administration, which aim to cut emissions by 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035.

    But Donald Trump’s return to the White House has all but shredded that plan. The US president has axed climate policies and slashed funding for clean energy, alongside kicking off the process that will see the country leave the Paris Agreement at the start of next year.

    President Donald Trump comments on a stack of executive orders he signs during the inauguration parade for President Donald Trump at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C., on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. (Sam Greene-Pool via Imagn Images)

    President Donald Trump comments on a stack of executive orders he signs during the inauguration parade for President Donald Trump at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C., on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. (Sam Greene-Pool via Imagn Images)

    State-level authorities and businesses are still likely to push on with some measures to reduce emissions, despite Washington’s pullback, but the extent to which those can help meet the NDC offered by the Biden administration is unclear.

    In his speech on Tuesday, Stiell said those taking strong climate action will reap the rewards “measured in millions of new jobs and trillions in new investment”.

    “We are still in the race, but to ensure a livable planet for all eight billion people today, we must urgently pick up the pace,” he added.

    The post UN calls for faster emissions cuts for 2035 as first global estimate disappoints appeared first on Climate Home News.

    UN calls for faster emissions cuts for 2035 as first global estimate disappoints

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    Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs

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    Three countries have been named by the Paris Agreement’s compliance committee for failing to submit a nationally determined contribution (NDC) and repeatedly snubbing offers of help with their climate plans.

    After months of internal debate over whether to identify serial non-responders, the Paris Agreement’s Implementation and Compliance Committee (PAICC) named the three countries which have failed to engage with it over their NDCs on Friday.

    It named Democratic Republic of Congo, Senegal and North Korea in a footnote of its annual report, adding that it decided to name them “with a view to facilitating engagement”, adding that representatives of the three nations had been invited to its meeting in early 2027 “with the purpose of identifying any challenges and constraints”.

    “The Committee noted the importance of Parties engaging with the Committee in a timely manner, while noting that some delays may be due to the national capabilities and circumstances of the Parties”, the report said.

      In July, PAICC said 12 countries had ignored its repeated attempts to discuss why they had not published an NDC as required every five years under the 2015 Paris accord.

      Members of the committee had been divided over whether to name them, but at a September meeting decided to do so in their annual report to the annual climate COP summit.

      By the time the report was published on Friday, only Congo, Senegal and North Korea “had not communicated an NDC or submitted a [Biennial Transparency Report] and had not yet responded to any of the Committee’s notifications, despite several reminders issued by the Committee in this regard”.

      Rainforest and renewable energy ambitions

      The silence from Congo and Senegal is notable because the former is home to much of the Congo Basin rainforest while the latter has sought billions of dollars in climate finance to support its renewable energy ambitions.

      After Brazil, Congo has more rainforest than any country in the world. This forest, and the country’s peatlands, absorb huge amounts of greenhouse gas but are fast being lost to expanding farmland, charcoal production, logging and mining.

      Senegal signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership with Canada and wealthy European nations in 2023, to help it meet its renewable energy targets under the-then government of Macky Sall. It was chair of the Least Developed Countries group between January 2022 and December 2023.

      Greenpeace campaigner Raoul Monsembula in the peatland forest around Mbandaka, Democratic Republic of Congo, on September 15, 2017 (Daniel Beltra/Greenpeace)

      Tejas Rao, who is researching the PAICC as part of a doctoral thesis at Cambridge University, said the governments of the three countries should engage with the committee.

      “Engagement costs these governments very little and the committee has shown it will listen,” he said.

      “Silence leaves the committee with no basis to help, and it leaves the [governments] exposed to the narrative that they are simply disengaged,” he told Climate Home News.

      Paris Agreement requirement

      The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all parties to publish an NDC every five years outlining their emissions reduction targets, with each plan meant to be more ambitious than the country’s last NDC.

      The latest set – the third round of plans, with new targets for 2035 – was due in February 2025. While most countries missed this deadline, all but around 30 – mostly small emitters but including Egypt, Vietnam and Argentina – have now submitted them.

      Over the year, the PAICC – which is made up of government climate officials from developed and developing countries – has been communicating with governments that have not submitted NDCs and trying to overcome barriers to them doing so.

      Some nations have cited exceptional circumstances as the reason for not submitting an NDC, a process that requires a significant amount of work in tracking emissions and consulting on how to curb them across the economy. For example, a letter from a Sudanese official to the PAICC, seen by Climate Home News, said that the country’s civil war had led to the suspension of its NDC preparation.

        The US and Iran are not signed up to the Paris Agreement and so do not have active NDCs, nor does Taiwan, which is not a UN member state.

        Rao said that because the PAICC is “facilitative and non-punitive”, naming the countries “is meant to open a door, not close one – the invited consultation is the point”.

        “In recent months, governments that explained their constraints, whether capacity, finance or domestic process, have been met with follow-up and support rather than sanction, and the number of silent governments has fallen sharply,” Rao said.

        The post Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs appeared first on Climate Home News.

        Paris Agreement committee names three countries snubbing it over NDCs

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        Q&A: Why a pivotal IPCC meeting in Ethiopia ended in ‘profound disappointment’

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