Uganda’s government has defended plans to ramp up its nascent oil industry by citing a contested scenario for rising fossil fuel use that is favoured by the Trump administration over more climate-friendly models.

Energy analysts have warned that the East African nation’s drive to fund development by producing and exporting oil is a risky strategy due to projections of cost overruns and over-supplied markets as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.

Asked to comment on such warnings, a spokesperson for the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU) referred to the Current Policies Scenario outlined in the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO) report.

One of several different scenarios in the report, that scenario is the most negative on climate action – assuming current policies and no further emissions cuts – and projects that oil demand will continue to rise until at least 2050. 

“This position is aligned to Uganda’s development aspirations that will leverage our oil and gas resources,” the PAU spokesperson told Climate Home News.

The issue highlights the stakes for Uganda as it invests heavily in oil infrastructure and also shows how U.S. pushback against climate action under President Donald Trump is being used to justify new fossil fuel projects.

IEA’s “cautious” scenario

The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook report includes long-term projections for global trends on energy demand and supply, investments, government policies as well as the climate and transition targets that might affect energy markets in the years to come.

They include several different scenarios including the Stated Policies Scenario, which reflects policies already implemented or announced and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, which maps out a pathway to achieve specific energy and climate-related goals. Under the Stated Policies Scenario, oil demand is set to peak around 2030.

The Current Policies Scenario (CPS) was removed from the WEO scenarios in 2020 but was reintroduced in last year’s report following pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticised the agency’s climate focus and urged it to include outlooks that better reflect continued fossil fuel use.

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The Paris-based energy body describes the CPS as “cautious” and based on enacted laws and measures.

Asked to comment on Uganda’s citing of the CPS to justify its oil industry plans, an IEA spokesperson said none of the scenarios were forecasts and “the IEA does not assign likelihoods of one scenario prevailing over another”.

“There is no single storyline about the future of energy,” the spokesperson said, adding that it was up to governments and other stakeholders to explore the consequences of policy choices related to issues such as energy security, affordability and sustainability.

Protecting the economy?

Uganda’s oil ambitions involve developing two oilfields on the shores of Lake Albert – Tilenga and Kingfisher – and building the 900-mile (1,443-km) East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), with the aim of transporting 230,000 barrels of crude per day to Tanzania’s Tanga port for export.

Officials from the government of President Yoweri Museveni say domestic crude production and a planned refinery will cut reliance on imported petroleum products and protect the economy.

But climate and energy experts say the plan is risky. A report published this month by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis found that Uganda stands to benefit far less from oil production than previously projected.

The country’s use of the IEA’s Current Policies Scenario raises further questions, said Dave Jones, chief analyst at Ember, an independent, non-profit energy think-tank focused on accelerating the global energy transition.

“[Using] the CPS, from a perspective of oil demand, is extraordinarily unrealistic,” he told Climate Home News. He said the CPS was not the IEA’s lead scenario “so countries should not give much weight to it”.

He noted, for instance, that the CPS assumes the same number of electric vehicles are sold in 2050 as 2024 in the world outside of China and the EU.

“This is completely at odds with all the evidence of 2025, which shows EVs’ sales share is soaring across many countries, especially emerging countries,” he said.

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Terry Githinji, Africa programme manager at Oil Change International, a research and advocacy group, said it was “alarming” that Uganda was relying on the most fossil-heavy IEA scenario to justify expanding oil production – warning of the dire climate and social impacts that such a path would entail.

“Betting Uganda’s future on a high-risk fossil pathway that enriches foreign oil companies while leaving Ugandans to bear the economic and climate risks is a dangerous gamble, especially when the IEA’s own analysis shows renewables are cheaper, create more jobs, and deliver energy access faster,” Githinji added.

The post Uganda cites contentious IEA fossil fuel scenario backed by Trump administration appeared first on Climate Home News.

Uganda cites contentious IEA fossil fuel scenario backed by Trump administration