The lithium sector took center stage this week when Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC) stock soared nearly 95% on reports that the Trump administration is considering taking an equity stake in the company’s Thacker Pass mine in Nevada. If it happens, this move would be one of the biggest government actions in U.S. mining in years. It shows how important lithium is to national policy now.
Behind the headlines lies a deeper story: America’s ambition to lead the clean energy transition risks colliding with a stark supply shortage. We highlight below, with the two charts, both the opportunity and the vulnerability facing the United States in this lithium quest.
A Lithium Crisis in the Making
The United States faces a lithium crisis that makes its clean energy ambitions look more like an aspiration than an execution. Current domestic production is only 2,700 metric tons a year. That’s too small compared to the 500,000 tons needed by 2030 to hit electric vehicle (EV) goals.
To put this in perspective:
- The lithium in an iPhone weighs about the same as a penny.
- A Tesla Model 3 battery pack requires around 12 kilograms.
- A Ford F-150 Lightning demands closer to 17 kilograms.
At present mining levels, the U.S. produces enough lithium for only about 158,000 Tesla Model 3s annually. That’s in a market where Americans bought 1.4 million EVs in 2024 alone, with demand expected to climb sharply in the coming years.
This gap reveals a harsh reality: America’s lithium supply chain is ill-prepared for its electrification goals.
From Marginal Producer to Top Four — If Thacker Pass Delivers
The government’s solution to this issue is projects like Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass. It’s one of the largest lithium deposits in North America. If fully developed, it could boost U.S. production to around 40,000 tons each year. This would place the country among the top four producers, following Australia, Chile, and China.
That would mark a tenfold increase in output, but it is still far from enough. Even under the most optimistic forecasts, Thacker Pass would meet just 8% of projected U.S. demand by 2030, and a mere 3% of the 1.2 million tons expected by 2035.
Meanwhile, China has spent more than a decade locking up supply chains, securing lithium assets in Africa, South America, and Australia. It is also building refining infrastructure that now processes nearly 80% of the world’s lithium.
The comparison is striking: Zimbabwe produces eight times more lithium than the U.S. Even smaller producers, like Argentina, surpass American output. In this context, Washington’s sudden push for equity stakes is less about profits and more about survival in a high-stakes race for supply.
Reserves Rich, Supply Poor: The Untapped U.S. Advantage
The second chart points to America’s hidden strength: the U.S. ranks first globally in lithium reserves, with more than 100 million tonnes identified. Despite this geological advantage, those resources remain largely untapped.
Encouragingly, the U.S. now ranks third in global exploration budgets, reflecting a deliberate policy pivot. Billions of dollars are going to exploration and project development, from Nevada to North Carolina. If even a fraction of these reserves is unlocked, the U.S. could rival today’s top producers and reduce dependence on foreign supply chains.
However, converting reserves into production requires more than exploration. Projects can hit delays with permits, face environmental lawsuits, struggle with financing, and deal with local opposition. All these issues can stretch timelines into decades. This is why federal involvement is becoming more important. This includes equity stakes, subsidies, and fast-tracking permits.
Why the LAC Surge Matters
The near-doubling of Lithium Americas’ stock was not just a speculative rally. It was a market signal that U.S. lithium policy is entering a new phase.
- Government backing reduces financing risk, making it easier to attract institutional investors.
- Aligning policies with EV makers like General Motors, which has a big stake in Thacker Pass, ensures supply security and offtake agreements.
- National security framing places lithium on the same level as oil and gas. This makes lithium a strategic commodity and allows for more state intervention.
For automakers and battery manufacturers, this could mark the start of a more stable domestic supply base. For investors, it highlights how policy can rapidly change the outlook for mining equities.
Demand, Prices, and the Rollercoaster Market
Lithium demand will rise quickly. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) predicts that consumption of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) will surpass 2.4 million tonnes by 2030. That’s almost four times what we use now. By 2035, demand could climb past 5 million tonnes, fueled by electric vehicles and large-scale battery storage.
The industry needs hundreds of new projects to meet this surge. However, BMI points out that permitting delays, financing issues, and tech challenges are slowing supply growth.
Battery demand adds another layer of urgency. Analysts predict global battery capacity will reach nearly 4 terawatt-hours by 2030. This highlights lithium’s vital role in the clean energy shift.
The U.S. is still a minor player. Most refining and conversion happens in China, which holds about 80% of processing capacity. This imbalance shows why Washington supports projects like Lithium Americas. They want to secure a local supply.
Litium prices, meanwhile, have been highly volatile. After lithium carbonate reached over $80,000 per tonne in late 2022, prices dropped sharply. In 2023–2024, they fell by more than 80%, going below $10,000 earlier this year. BMI attributes the crash to oversupply from South America and weaker near-term EV sales in China, which created a temporary glut.
However, the consultancy stresses that volatility is cyclical, not structural. Demand is strong, and prices should bounce back. In fact, last August, prices climbed when China’s major battery player closed its major mine.
New supply can’t keep up with long-term consumption. BMI warns that without steady investment and diversification of supply, future shortages could push prices sharply higher again by the late 2020s.
For the U.S., this shows why public investment matters. It helps create a strong domestic lithium industry. This will support electrification goals and better handle global changes.
Government in the Game: Stabilizing Supply Chains
U.S. government equity in Lithium Americas offers help in these areas:
- Provide a floor for project financing — Government backing reduces the risk premium for lenders or institutional partners.
- Stabilize supply — A guaranteed domestic source reduces reliance on external shocks.
- Mitigate short-term volatility — If Thacker Pass operates under a model combining private and public capital, it could offer a more stable supply corridor insulated from market swings.
- Signal future project structures — The U.S. may increasingly demand “state-option carve-outs” or partial equity as a condition for major critical mineral projects.
In a market where excess supply can drive prices into unprofitable territory, having a strategic anchor on flagship projects becomes a competitive edge.
Lithium as a Strategic Commodity
Lithium is no longer just a commodity for battery makers — it is now a strategic asset shaping national policy. The U.S. has the reserves, capital, and political will to be a major producer. But it will take years of teamwork to turn potential into production.
The Trump administration’s willingness to consider a government equity stake in Lithium Americas suggests a broader trend: future large-scale projects may require some form of state participation to succeed.
For the U.S., the stakes could not be higher. Without a reliable domestic lithium supply, the country risks falling behind in the global EV race, remaining dependent on supply chains controlled by rivals. With it, America could not only meet its clean energy goals but also secure a critical pillar of its industrial future.
- READ MORE on Lithium:
- Lithium Market in 2025 and Beyond: Supply Deficit Looms with $116B Requirement
- Lithium’s Comeback in 2025: Will Surging EV Demand Fuel the Next Price Boom?
- Top 5 Lithium Producers Powering the Battery Market in 2025
The post U.S. Lithium Push: How Washington’s Bet on Lithium Americas Could Reshape the Global Market appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Insetting program design starts with your supplier map. The carbon claim comes much later.
Consider a coffee procurement team that funds a farm intervention before checking its sourcing data. The supplier aggregates coffee lots from several regions. The buyer lacks farm-level traceability. Another purchaser expects to report the same outcome. A more attractive project brochure solves none of these problems.
If the distinction between a value-chain intervention and a purchased credit is still open, read CCC’s Insetting vs Offsetting guide before you set the brief.
Insetting program design begins with the purchasing relationship and works outward. You need to decide 1) where an intervention belongs, 2) what business problem it addresses, 3) who pays for it, 4) how results will be measured, and 5) what the evidence will let you say about them. This five-step playbook turns that sequence into a procurement plan.
Step 1: Insetting program design starts with supplier mapping
Start with the commodities that matter most to your Scope 3 inventory and sourcing continuity. Ask finance for spend by supplier, sustainability for the emissions baseline, and category managers for origin and volume records. Then identify which suppliers can trace material to a jurisdiction, sourcing region, producer group, or individual land-management unit.
The level of traceability affects what you can account for. Under the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, the spatial boundary for purchased land-based products depends on the traceability associated with each volume. Farm-specific factors or removals require physical traceability through an acceptable chain-of-custody model. A contract with a tier-one trader, by itself, does not establish a link to the farms behind its deliveries.[1]
Build a first-pass table with five columns: commodity and annual volume; supplier and origin; current traceability level; land-use and production risks; and the business owner who can change the purchasing terms. Mark missing data plainly. A blank cell is cheaper to fix before a program starts than after a claim is drafted.
If your company sets an SBTi Forest, Land and Agriculture target (FLAG), keep its land-related target boundary separate from energy and industry emissions. The current FLAG guidance also requires relevant companies to assess primary deforestation-linked commodities in their value chains.[2]
Step 2: Choose a commodity and jurisdiction for a pilot
Select one supply corridor where the sourcing connection can be established and procurement has a reason to stay. A useful pilot has repeat purchases, suppliers willing to share records, an intervention matched to a diagnosed problem, and a defined plan to measure the result. Carbon potential alone is a poor selection rule if the supplier cannot deliver the crop your business needs.
Compare candidate regions on land-use risk, supplier concentration, local rights and tenure, the availability of baseline data, and exposure to drought, erosion, or forest conversion. Check the relevant legal requirements separately. A nature project does not satisfy a due-diligence obligation merely because it has a carbon method attached.
Consider a coffee buyer sourcing from two districts. In the first, producer-group records identify the farms, while recent dry seasons have increased rejected green coffee lots. In the second, deliveries pass through several intermediaries and farm origins are unknown. Pilot shade management in the first district, with local agronomic advice and quality checks built into the plan. The buyer can trace purchases there and test the intervention against a defined sourcing problem.
Use a short decision memo to record why the selected corridor beats the alternatives, what remains uncertain, and what would stop the pilot. That memo is the first control against a project drifting toward whatever happens to photograph well.
Step 3: Design the supplier engagement and commercial model
The intervention needs an owner on each side of the contract. Decide who supplies planting material or training, who maintains the practice, who bears the cost if a harvest disappoints, and how long the buyer expects to purchase from participating suppliers. Where smallholders participate, budget cash flow and technical support for practices that offer a later return.
Put these terms in a supplier agreement or pilot addendum. It should cover eligible farms and volumes, consent to data collection, access for monitoring, any land or carbon rights that matter, benefit sharing, and what happens if the purchasing relationship ends. Ask local counsel and producer representatives to review the arrangement. The Accountability Framework is a useful reference for supply-chain work involving forests, ecosystems, and human rights.[3]
Avoid assigning an automatic carbon benefit to the buyer. The contract should say which party has the right to report each outcome, how overlapping claims will be checked, and how any issued credits will be handled. A reduction reported in a buyer’s inventory cannot simply be sold for someone else’s offset claim without an accounting review. SBTi FLAG guidance excludes purchased credits used as offsets from near-term FLAG target achievement.[2]
Set commercial measures beside environmental ones: delivered volume, rejection rate, supplier retention, and procurement cost. They tell you whether the program works as a supply-chain investment, even if carbon accounting takes longer to resolve.
Step 4: Build monitoring, reporting, and verification before rollout
Agree on the baseline and data flow before paying for a full rollout. Identify the land units or sourcing regions in scope, the practices that change, the records suppliers already keep, and the additional measurements the program requires. Decide which data can come from field visits, transaction records, or remote sensing, and who checks each source.
For carbon, separate three questions. Did the practice happen? Did emissions or removals change under an applicable method? Can the buyer attribute a defensible share to its purchased goods without double counting? The GHG Protocol’s 2026 guidance includes dedicated chapters on spatial boundaries, data and methods, evaluating actions, credited outcomes, and assurance.[1] These are distinct jobs. A photograph of a planted tree answers only part of the first.
CCC’s MRV and Additionality article explains the separate evidence questions a project reviewer will ask.
Create an evidence file for every reporting period: dated supplier and farm records, purchase volumes, methods and emission factors, uncertainty, quality checks, and changes from the baseline. Specify who can challenge the data and how corrections are recorded. If a project also seeks credit certification, keep project accounting and corporate inventory accounting separate. The GHG Protocol says its land standard focuses on entity-level inventories and does not set the rules for credit certification.[4]
Start with the minimum viable measurement design that can survive review. Add complexity when the pilot tells you which data actually changes a decision.
Step 5: Decide what can be reported and claimed
Insetting program design needs reporting rules before the marketing copy. Procurement, sustainability, finance, and legal should agree on four distinct outputs: operational performance; observed land or nature outcomes; inventory effects, if the accounting criteria are met; and any separately issued credits. One dashboard can display them, but they should not share a single unqualified headline.
SBTi FLAG guidance allows certain land-based removals within a company’s operations or supply chain to contribute to FLAG pathways, subject to criteria including permanence, traceability, data quality, and allocation. It does not allow purchased offsets to meet near-term FLAG targets.[2] Eligibility therefore depends on evidence and the applicable target rules, not on calling an activity “insetting.”
Draft a claims register. For each proposed sentence, record the period, boundary, data owner, calculation method, reviewer, and whether the result is measured, estimated, or still a goal. If the evidence supports only “we funded a pilot with 200 farms,” say that. Do not turn a funding fact into a verified emissions reduction.
What good looks like by year three
Treat year three as a review point, not a promised payback date. A mature pilot should have mapped participating supply volumes, a stable supplier agreement, a repeatable data collection process, and a comparison of commercial and environmental results against the baseline. It should also have a documented answer for outcomes that cannot be included in the buyer’s inventory.
Scale only where the pilot improves a sourcing decision and the evidence can follow the product. If neither condition holds, redesign the intervention or change the corridor. A disciplined program can conclude that a site is unsuitable. That is useful procurement intelligence.
Discuss your insetting program with CCC
Carbon Credit Capital designs nature-based supply chain investments around sourcing needs and measurable sustainability outcomes. Schedule a consultation with our carbon and sustainability experts to map your tier-one supplier network, FLAG exposure, and first pilot decision.
Sources
[1] GHG Protocol, Land Sector and Removals Standard, version 1.1, and companion Guidance, June 2026: https://ghgprotocol.org/land-sector-and-removals-standard ; https://ghgprotocol.org/land-sector-and-removals-guidance
[2] Science Based Targets initiative, Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, especially pp. 16–17, 37, and 41: https://sciencebasedtargets.org/resources/files/SBTiFLAGGuidance.pdf
[3] Accountability Framework initiative, Accountability Framework and guidance for companies: https://accountability-framework.org/
[4] GHG Protocol, Frequently Asked Questions: Land Sector and Removals Standard, questions 10 and 18: https://ghgprotocol.org/blog/frequently-asked-questions-land-sector-and-removals-lsr-standard
Nature-based carbon investments deserve consideration when they address a specific business dependency and produce outcomes you can measure. Imagine Moonbucks, a global coffee roaster planning next season’s espresso blend. It is considering natural Grade 4 coffee from Jimma, in southwestern Oromia, Ethiopia. Its sourcing decisions affect the roasting schedule and the cash tied up in coffee purchases. Moonbucks needs to understand which measures could protect that supply, what they would cost and how it would judge the results.
1. Define the sourcing problem before choosing a project
Moonbucks needs a dependable component for its espresso blend. Its procurement team wants continuity of volume and an agreed cup profile. Replacing a shipment at short notice could require new sample approval and changes to the blend, and given the schedules for cultivation, processing, and freight delivery, is practically impossible. Moonbucks needs to get this right, and its initial concern is inconsistent deliveries. It commissions an assessment of the supplying farms and post-harvest chain. The questions cover land condition, harvest availability and whether drying or storage problems are affecting saleable lots.
This distinction changes the investment brief. A tree-planting proposal cannot be assumed to fix drying problems. Better storage cannot restore eroded land. The team must establish which problem exists before selecting the response.
CCC’s guide to finding nature-based solutions in your supply chain explains where to look. Here, the next task is to turn a broad concern into a testable proposal.
2. Develop nature-based carbon investments around the actual supply chain
The assessment would trace Moonbucks’ purchases back through the exporter and supplying producer groups. Which farms supply the contracted lots? Who controls land-management decisions? How long does the buyer expect to maintain the purchasing relationship?
Furthermore, Jimma natural Grade 4 cannot be treated as interchangeable with every Ethiopian coffee. Moonbucks would need to test any substitute against its own blend and quality requirements.
Suppose Moonbucks’ assessment identifies an opportunity to maintain shade trees and restore vegetation along exposed streambanks. The IPCC describes agroforestry as a way to store carbon in vegetation and soil, with potential benefits for erosion control and water quality.1 Moonbucks would need local advice on species, growing conditions and maintenance before deciding how these measures fit its sourcing plan.
The proposal now has a defined sourcing connection and a candidate intervention. The next steps are to test its effect on production, assess carbon eligibility and build the financial case.
3. Compare the proposal with other ways to protect supply
WBCSD’s Nature-based Solutions Blueprint recommends comparing nature-based options with other responses across their benefits and costs.2 For Moonbucks, that means evaluating the landscape proposal alongside drying improvements, storage controls and alternative sourcing arrangements.
The product’s natural-process designation matters. Moonbucks should examine the drying and dry-milling chain alongside land conditions. Its team would check storage practices, contamination risks and incoming-lot quality to see whether problems arise before or after the coffee leaves the farms.
The revised proposal might combine land stewardship with separate post-harvest controls. Each component needs its own purpose and budget. A sustainability label should not obscure which activity is expected to solve which problem.
The project develops as the evidence improves. Its scope should follow the diagnosis rather than preserve the first idea unchanged.
4. Establish what the carbon outcome could count toward
Moonbucks’ sustainability team now tests the proposed carbon case separately from the sourcing case. Is the objective a measurable change in Moonbucks’ value-chain emissions, verified credits for separate voluntary use, or distinct outcomes under carefully defined arrangements?
Scope 3 covers value-chain emissions. A purchasing relationship alone does not prove that a farm intervention can be included in Moonbucks’ inventory. The team needs an applicable accounting method, defensible boundaries and evidence supporting attribution.
SBTi’s FLAG Guidance (forest, land and agriculture), version 1.2, says purchased credits used as offsets cannot meet near-term FLAG or energy and industry targets. Eligible land-based removals are subject to accounting requirements.3 Moonbucks needs to test its proposal against those rules before including an outcome in its targets.
For Moonbucks’ Jimma proposal, maintaining existing trees and establishing new vegetation could involve different carbon questions. Specialists must examine the baseline and additionality, meaning what changes because the project proceeds. They must also assess measurement and the risk that stored carbon is lost. CCC’s MRV and additionality article introduces those tests.
Until that work is complete, Moonbucks should not budget an assumed Scope 3 reduction or credit-sale receipt. Direct emissions reductions remain the priority.
5. Build a financial case that survives weaker assumptions
Moonbucks’ finance team would now build a multi-year budget. UNEP’s State of Finance for Nature 2023 compares current finance with the investment needed to meet climate, biodiversity and land-restoration goals.4 The company would cost its proposed activities, farmer participation and ongoing monitoring. Verification, where required, is a separate expense. Maintenance and responsibility for replacing failed plantings must remain visible after the initial establishment budget ends.
Operational benefits need equally careful treatment. If fewer rejected lots reduce emergency purchasing, count that saving once. Do not add “supply resilience” as another financial benefit when it represents the same avoided cost.
Moonbucks should compare a base case with slower benefits, higher implementation costs and no carbon revenue. It should also distinguish production outcomes from quality and shipment outcomes. A single good harvest would not prove that the landscape intervention caused better delivery performance.
A project can remain worth funding even when its carbon case needs more work. That decision must rest on the operational evidence and the company’s objectives, without unsupported environmental claims.
6. Fund a pilot with a clear expansion decision
Moonbucks’ first approval would fund a bounded pilot, rather than commit the entire sourcing program. Before spending, Moonbucks would agree on participating farms, responsibilities and the evidence needed at review.
Its scorecard could track farmer participation, implementation costs and plant survival, alongside accepted coffee volumes and lot-quality results. Carbon measurements would follow the selected method. Farm-level traceability must connect the intervention to the actual sourcing relationship.
Suppose Moonbucks’ review later finds that storage changes explain most quality improvements, while the land measures need longer observation. Those findings would shape the next decision: expand the proven component, adjust the landscape work or pause further spending. They would not justify crediting all improvements to tree planting.
This gives nature-based carbon investments a practical place in a multi-year strategy. Funding increases as the evidence supports it, and the project can change direction before a larger commitment.
Discuss a sourcing opportunity with CCC
Carbon Credit Capital’s nature-based supply-chain investment service uses its Dual-Value Model to examine supply-chain economics alongside potential sustainability outcomes.
Schedule a consultation to discuss your sourcing exposure and the questions to resolve before allocating capital.
Sources
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 7, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, section 7.4.3.3 (Agroforestry).
- World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), Nature-based Solutions Blueprint, 5 June 2024.
- Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), Forest, Land and Agriculture Science-Based Target-Setting Guidance, version 1.2, March 2026, section 3.1.4, pp. 37–38.
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), State of Finance for Nature 2023, 2023.
A plastic credit funds the collection of plastic waste in places where no formal system exists to collect it. Each credit represents a measured, independently audited quantity of plastic taken out of the environment or returned to use, tracked on a public registry.
