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Tesla Rides High Before Q3 Earnings With (TSLA) Stock Rising, Record Deliveries, Gigafactory Growth, and Green Goals

Tesla, Inc. continues to show strong performance in 2025. In the third quarter alone, the company delivered 497,099 vehicles, close to half a million units. This figure is one of Tesla’s highest quarterly delivery totals on record. At the same time, its Austin Gigafactory reached a key production milestone — more than 500,000 vehicles built since opening in 2022.

These achievements confirm Tesla’s steady expansion of its manufacturing network. The company now runs major factories in California, Texas, Nevada, Germany, and China. Each plant contributes to a growing global supply chain that supports its Model Y, Model 3, and the new Cybertruck.

Tesla’s steady ramp-up shows how far it has come since its early production struggles. The company aims to reach 20 million vehicles a year by 2030. This plan is ambitious, but this quarter’s numbers show steady progress toward that goal.

Gigafactory Texas Reaches a Key Milestone

Gigafactory Texas, near Austin, is Tesla’s biggest and most advanced U.S. facility. It makes the Model Y and is ramping up Cybertruck production. Hitting 500,000 vehicles in roughly three and a half years shows faster growth compared to Tesla’s earlier plants.

Reports say around 100,000 vehicles were made from April to mid-October 2025. This strong pace helps meet annual growth targets. The plant uses Giga Presses, which are massive casting machines that replace dozens of smaller parts. This automation speeds up production, reduces costs, and minimizes material waste.

The Texas facility also plays a central role in Tesla’s sustainability strategy. Much of its electricity comes from renewable energy, and its design reduces water use and waste. Over time, Tesla aims for all Gigafactories to operate with 100% clean energy.

Q3 Earnings Outlook: Revenue Growth, Margin Pressure

Analysts expect Tesla to post around $26.3 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, up about 4–5% year-over-year. However, earnings per share (EPS) are projected to fall about 24%, to roughly $0.55 per share from $0.72 in the same quarter last year.

The decline is mainly due to lower vehicle prices and smaller contributions from carbon redit sales. These credits have been providing a huge revenue stream to the EV giant by selling it to its peers that don’t meet regulatory emission reductions.

Also, Tesla has cut prices on its main models in several markets to stay competitive, especially against Chinese EV makers. Those price cuts attract new buyers but reduce profit margins.

Tesla’s operating margin averaged 9.2% in Q2 2025, down from 11.4% a year earlier. Automotive gross margin, excluding credits, was about 18%, compared to over 25% in 2022. Even with tighter margins, Tesla continues to benefit from software revenue through Full Self-Driving (FSD) packages and connectivity subscriptions.

The company’s results will likely depend on several key factors:

  • Vehicle deliveries – nearly half a million this quarter.
  • Energy storage deployments – reaching a new record of 12.5 GWh.
  • Software and services – providing recurring, higher-margin income.
  • Production costs – influenced by logistics and raw material expenses.

Despite margin pressure, Tesla’s growth in energy storage and software could offset some of the decline in car profits.

The Global EV Race Accelerates

The global electric vehicle (EV) market continues to expand rapidly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global EV sales rose over 30% in 2024. They reached almost 14 million units. In 2025, sales could hit 17 million. Electric cars could represent about 22% of all vehicle sales globally by the end of this year.

global EV sales 2030 BNEF

Tesla remains a market leader, holding around 16% of global EV market share, but it faces rising competition. Chinese brands like BYD, NIO, and XPeng are growing in Asia and Europe. At the same time, Volkswagen, Ford, GM, and Hyundai are speeding up EV production.

Elon Musk’s company defends its position by improving efficiency and cutting costs. Its 4680 battery cells are key, aiming to lower production costs by up to 50%. They also enhance range and durability.

The company also benefits from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which offers tax credits for EV buyers and incentives for battery production. However, these credits will gradually phase out, which could affect demand after 2026.

According to BloombergNEF, the average price of lithium-ion batteries dropped to $115 per kWh in 2024, down 20% from 2023. This decline helps Tesla maintain affordability while protecting margins.

battery grade lithium prices

Wall Street Takes the Wheel: Tesla Stock Gains on Big Deliveries

Tesla’s stock rose modestly after its Q3 delivery report. On Monday, shares gained, surpassing $444, which doubled in six months. The rise reflects investor confidence in Tesla’s production capacity and delivery strength, even with profit pressure.

Tesla TSLA stock price

Analysts remain split: some expect stronger earnings in 2026 as new models roll out, while others warn that price cuts and competition could slow growth.

Still, Tesla’s ability to maintain high output while scaling its energy business supports its long-term outlook. The company is a top choice for big investors like BlackRock and Vanguard. They both focus on sustainability in their investment strategies.

Driving Clean: Tesla’s Growing Role in a Net-Zero World

Tesla’s business model directly supports global emission-reduction goals. Tesla’s 2024 Impact Report shows that customers avoided almost 32 million metric tons of CO₂e emissions. This is a 60% increase from last year. This figure includes emissions avoided by Tesla’s vehicles as well as its solar and energy storage products globally.

Since 2012, Tesla’s fleet has avoided many millions of metric tons of CO₂e. Each vehicle saves about 52 metric tons of CO₂e compared to similar gasoline cars over an average lifespan of 17 years.

lifecycle emissions of gas cars vs EV

Tesla also focuses on sustainable manufacturing:

  • Gigafactory Nevada recycles more than 92% of production waste and reduces its water use intensity by 12% year-over-year.
  • The company sources lithium and aluminum from suppliers following responsible mining and low-carbon standards.
  • Its battery recycling program recovers up to 95% of nickel, cobalt, and lithium for reuse.

Beyond vehicles, Tesla’s energy business is expanding fast. In 2024, the company deployed 15 GWh of energy storage through its Megapack and Powerwall systems — enough to power over 4 million homes for one hour. These systems help utilities store renewable energy, stabilize grids, and reduce fossil fuel reliance.

Tesla aims to reach net-zero emissions across its value chain by 2040, covering factories, logistics, and product lifecycles. Investments in solar, wind, and carbon reduction projects are key to that goal.

Roadblocks and Roadmaps: What’s Next for Tesla

Amid its strong momentum, Tesla still faces several challenges that could affect future growth:

  • Competition: Rivals are narrowing the gap in technology and cost.
  • Price pressure: Discounts to boost demand reduce profitability.
  • Regulatory risks: Autopilot and FSD remain under scrutiny in some markets.
  • Supply chain: Securing critical minerals like lithium and nickel remains essential.

To adapt, Tesla is diversifying. The company plans to launch a low-cost compact vehicle, often referred to as the Model 2, expected to be priced under $27,000 and launched in late 2026.

It’s also developing a robotaxi platform, codenamed CyberCab, expected to begin pilot operations in 2026 with Level 4 autonomy. Plus, Tesla Energy could exceed $10 billion in annual revenue by 2026, supported by growing Megapack demand in the U.S. and Europe.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 milestones highlight both progress and pressure. Delivering nearly 500,000 vehicles and producing 500,000 at its Texas plant shows major strides in sustainable mobility. Revenue continues to grow even as profits tighten.

As Tesla prepares to announce its Q3 earnings, investors will look for signs of balance — growth, profitability, and sustainability. If the company keeps expanding responsibly and investing in cleaner technologies, it will remain a central player in the global transition toward a zero-emission economy.

The post Tesla Rides High Before Q3 Earnings With (TSLA) Stock Rising, Record Deliveries, Gigafactory Growth, and Green Goals appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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How NVIDIA, Microsoft, Musk’s xAI, and BlackRock Are Driving the Next Wave of AI: $60 Billion in Mega Deals Explained

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NVIDIA’s $60B Network for the AI Era Now Includes Elon Musk's xAI

NVIDIA continues to cement its position as a leading force in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. Its powerful chips are now the foundation of massive data centers and AI systems across the world. Recent deals worth more than $60 billion highlight how deeply the company is shaping the future of global computing.

Industries like healthcare and finance are turning to AI. NVIDIA’s hardware and software are now key to digital transformation. The company is both selling chips as well as designing the global infrastructure for smart technologies.

Growing Global Demand for AI Computing

Modern AI models demand enormous computing power. Training chatbots, autonomous driving systems, or image-recognition tools involves processing millions of calculations per second. NVIDIA’s graphics processing units (GPUs) are built for this type of workload.

Unlike traditional chips, GPUs can handle many tasks at once, making them ideal for AI training and inference. NVIDIA’s efficiency has made it the go-to supplier for big cloud providers, research institutions, and AI startups.

In 2025, global demand for AI computing surged. Governments and private companies are building large-scale data centers around NVIDIA’s technology. These facilities help create advanced AI models. They can be used for tasks like weather forecasting and logistics optimization.

AI-related regulations US 2024
Source: Stanford University

Billions in Global Infrastructure Partnerships

NVIDIA has signed major partnerships worth about $60 billion in total. These include agreements across cloud services, chip deployment, and full-scale data center construction.

A key highlight is the $14 billion contract between Microsoft and Nscale, a British AI cloud company. This deal will deploy about 200,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs. The installations will span the United States and Europe, with 104,000 GPUs located at a 240-megawatt facility in Texas set to open in 2026. Additional sites include 12,600 GPUs in Portugal and 23,000 in England by 2027.

Another big deal includes BlackRock, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Elon Musk’s xAI. They just announced a $40 billion purchase of Aligned Data Centers. The company operates over 50 campuses with more than 5 gigawatts of total capacity across North and South America. This is the biggest data center purchase ever. It also boosts NVIDIA’s role in the AI Infrastructure Partnership (AIP) initiative.

NVIDIA is more than a chip supplier now. These big collaborations show it’s a key partner in creating and powering the next generation of AI infrastructure.

Musk Bets Big on NVIDIA in a $20B Chip Pact

One of the most ambitious projects tied to NVIDIA is xAI’s $20 billion lease-to-own deal for AI chips. Led by Elon Musk, xAI plans to use the financing to build the Colossus 2 data center in Memphis, Tennessee.

The project will deploy 300,000 to 550,000 NVIDIA GB200 and GB300 chips, scaling up from xAI’s current 200,000-processor facility. The arrangement involves about $7.5 billion in equity and $12.5 billion in debt, using a special purpose vehicle (SPV) structure.

In a unique twist, NVIDIA is investing up to $2 billion in the SPV’s equity, effectively financing part of its own hardware. The debt is secured by the GPUs, not xAI’s corporate assets. This gives lenders direct security linked to the equipment.

This five-year lease model helps xAI access cutting-edge computing power without taking on the full debt burden. It also ensures NVIDIA a steady income stream and longer-term control over chip distribution.

NVIDIA Stock Moving Up, Market Going Up

NVIDIA’s stock went up a bit today. The market responded to corporate announcements and infrastructure deals. The gain shows that investors believe these big deals will increase future revenue and strengthen NVIDIA’s position in the AI ecosystem.

nvidia nvda stock

Although the increase isn’t dramatic, it shows that traders view this news as adding value. Stable stock gains can draw more interest from institutional investors. They look for long-term growth potential.

As news about these deals spreads, more people in the market may view NVIDIA as more than just a chipmaker. They might see it as a key player in AI infrastructure. That perception can help support longer-term stock strength.

The AI infrastructure market is growing fast and looks set to keep expanding for years. Analysts estimate the AI-infrastructure market hit $87.6 billion in 2025. It could almost double by 2030. This growth comes as companies invest in GPUs, networking, and cooling systems.

Data center power needs are rising fast. Forecasts suggest that by 2027, demand could hit about 92 GW. This growth is mainly due to AI workloads.

Firms and governments might need trillions in new capital to meet demand. One major study estimates that data-center investments could reach about $8 trillion by 2030 in a high-growth scenario.

investments for AI-related data center capacity 2030
Source: McKinsey & Company

Market research groups predict that AI data centers will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 25–32% through 2030. This means strong ongoing investment in chips, facilities, and power.

ESG, Sustainability, and Environmental Impact

Large AI data centers, like those powered by NVIDIA’s chips, have significant environmental footprints. The energy they consume and the cooling systems they require can contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and heavy water use.

In the xAI Colossus 2 project, the energy demand alone is over 1 gigawatt, comparable to the power needs of nearly a million households. Cooling will use millions of gallons of water daily. The facility uses methane turbines. This has led to complaints from environmental groups about air pollution and regulatory issues.

Because of this, NVIDIA and its partners will need to address sustainability. They may invest in cleaner power sources like solar or wind. They might also implement advanced cooling technology that uses less water or captures waste heat. Efficient chip designs that consume less power will be critical, too.

These sustainability efforts can influence public perception, regulatory approvals, and long-term cost structure. If NVIDIA proves it’s cutting emissions and lowering environmental impact, it boosts its role as a tech leader and a responsible partner for a greener future.

The Heat Is On: Rivals, Regulation, and Rising Power Costs

Despite its momentum, NVIDIA faces real challenges. Global demand for GPUs still exceeds supply, leading to long waiting times for deliveries. The company depends on semiconductor foundries like TSMC. So, any delays in production can affect big projects.

Competition is growing as well. AMD, Intel, and new AI-focused startups are developing their own advanced processors. These firms aim to capture part of the rapidly expanding AI chip market.

NVIDIA also faces regulatory and environmental risks. Export limits might cut sales in important areas. Also, AI data centers use more energy, which brings up sustainability issues. Meeting demand responsibly will require cleaner energy sources and more efficient chip designs.

What’s Next: NVIDIA’s AI Empire Expands

Looking ahead, NVIDIA is expected to continue expanding its global partnerships and data center influence. The company could move deeper into AI infrastructure services, offering combined packages of chips, software, and cloud capacity.

Future growth may also come from:

  • AI-as-a-Service platforms for governments and enterprises.
  • Cloud partnerships that give smaller developers access to advanced GPUs.
  • Next-generation chip designs with better performance per watt.
  • Sustainability initiatives to reduce energy use and emissions in data centers.

NVIDIA’s new partnerships include $60 billion in infrastructure deals and $20 billion in chip leasing. These moves show its growing role in AI innovation. The company’s chips now support projects that define the next era of computing, from massive data centers to advanced autonomous systems.

While competition and environmental pressures will continue to test its leadership, NVIDIA’s global reach and ability to adapt ensure it will stay a key player in the race to build the world’s AI infrastructure.

The post How NVIDIA, Microsoft, Musk’s xAI, and BlackRock Are Driving the Next Wave of AI: $60 Billion in Mega Deals Explained appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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Aluminum Prices Hit 3-Year High: Is It the Next Key Metal in the Clean Energy Shift?

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Aluminum Prices Hit 3-Year High: Is It the Next Key Metal in the Clean Energy Shift?

Aluminum is moving from a supporting role to center stage in the global green transition. The metal is light and strong, and also endlessly recyclable. This makes it essential for electric vehicles (EVs), solar panels, power lines, and low-carbon buildings.

Global demand for aluminum is rising fast as countries expand renewable power and electric transport. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) expects aluminum demand to rise by 40% by 2030. This growth is fueled by clean-tech uses.

But as the market expands, so does scrutiny on emissions. Aluminum smelting is one of the most energy-intensive industrial processes in the world. Reducing its carbon footprint is now a top goal for both industry and governments.

Aluminum Prices Hit 3-Year High Amid Tight Supply

On October 10, 2025, aluminum prices surged to their highest level in three years, topping around $2,800 per tonne. The rally shows rising supply worries and increasing demand from clean energy sectors. This includes electric vehicles (EVs), renewable power, and construction.

aluminum price

Analysts attribute the spike to several factors. China’s power shortages have limited smelting output. Also, new environmental rules are tightening production limits on coal-powered plants. In addition, unrest in Guinea, which supplies over 45% of China’s bauxite imports, has raised fears of disruptions in the global supply chain.

Meanwhile, inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange fell to their lowest point since 2021, signaling a tightening market.

“Supply can’t keep up with the clean-energy boom,” said analysts from BloombergNEF. They pointed out that aluminum’s use in solar, EVs, and transmission lines is growing faster than producers can adapt.

The recent price rise shows that investors prefer low-carbon aluminum. This type of aluminum now has a significant premium. Demand for verified low-emission materials is outpacing supply. This is the case for automakers, construction firms, and renewable developers in Europe and North America.

Experts think that prices over $2,500 per tonne could boost investments in recycling and renewable-powered smelters. This is especially true in places like Canada, Norway, and the Middle East. However, the rally also underscores a broader challenge: balancing the green transition with resource security.

Why Aluminum Is the Unsung Hero of Clean Energy

Aluminum saves weight — and that means energy. Lighter cars and trucks travel farther on the same battery charge. According to the Aluminum Association, modern EVs use 30–40% more aluminum than traditional gas vehicles.

It’s not just cars. Each 1-MW solar farm uses roughly 40 tons of aluminum for panel frames, mounts, and wiring. Power grids also rely on aluminum for transformers and long-distance transmission lines.

The metal’s high recyclability adds major sustainability value. Recycled aluminum uses only 5% of the energy required for primary production. Yet recycling accounts for only about 36% of global aluminum output today, leaving huge room for expansion.

The low-carbon aluminum market was 19.3 million tons in 2024, per IMARC estimates. It can grow to 27.7 million tons by 2033, with an annual growth rate of 3.7%. That growth mirrors global renewable investment trends.

low carbon aluminum market forecast

China’s Dominance and the Global Supply Imbalance

China dominates the aluminum industry. It produces over 40 million tons of primary aluminum annually — nearly 60% of global supply. It also tops in refining and processing, as well as in demand for raw materials like bauxite.

Global primary aluminum output
Source: IAI

Exports of bauxite from Guinea to China jumped 35% in 2024, making Guinea the world’s top bauxite exporter. This raw material feeds China’s vast smelting network.

Worldwide, primary aluminum production has topped 70 million tons in recent years. But the carbon footprint varies greatly by location.

Smelters powered by coal — common in parts of China — emit far more CO₂ than those powered by renewables. Producers in Norway, Iceland, and Canada use hydropower. They create aluminum with emissions below 4 kg CO₂ per kg aluminum. This is much lower than the global average of 16.7 kg CO₂ per kg (IAI, Hydro).

This huge gap shows why energy source matters as much as output in the global supply chain.

The Emissions Problem — and Low-Carbon Solutions

Traditional aluminum production is energy-hungry. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that aluminum accounts for around 2% of global CO₂ emissions from materials production.

Producers are now turning to renewable power and recycled inputs to cut this footprint. Norsk Hydro, for example, produces low-carbon aluminum emitting only 3 kg CO₂/kg, among the world’s cleanest.

If all smelters switched to renewable power, global aluminum emissions could fall by 400 million tonnes of CO₂ each year. That’s like the yearly emissions from 100 coal plants.

aluminum carbon footprint recycled vs traditional

Recycling is another big win. Recycling rates in Europe could double by 2030, potentially saving 39 million tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2050. Globally, if all used aluminum were recycled, the industry’s total energy demand could fall by 60%, says MARC Group.

Pricing, Premiums, and the Push for Low-Carbon Metal

Aluminum remains a major commodity. The global aluminum market was valued at roughly $190 billion in 2024, with steady growth projected through 2030.

The IAI forecasted the following for aluminum demand growth by 2030:

  • By Region:
    Around 93% of global aluminum demand growth between 2020 and 2030 will come from Asia (especially China), Europe, and North America, reflecting industrial expansion, renewable power deployment, and strong EV manufacturing in these regions.

Aluminum demand growth by region IAI
Source: IAI
  • By Sector:
    Aluminum demand is set to grow most in transportation (+11.8 Mt), followed by electrical (+5.2 Mt), construction (+4.6 Mt), and packaging (+3.3 Mt) — with transport leading due to electric mobility and the electrical sector driven largely by solar and renewable infrastructure.

  • By EV Demand:
    Electric vehicles will account for roughly 63% of new aluminum demand in transport, adding about 7.4 million tonnes by 2030; EVs use 60–80 kg more aluminum per vehicle than traditional models, with China, Europe, and North America driving about 93% of this growth.

Aluminum demand from EVs by region IAI
Source: IAI

Low-carbon aluminum commands a premium. Market data shows that buyers pay $20 to $150 per tonne more for certified low-carbon products, depending on the region and energy source.

Smelters that use renewable power gain a cost edge as carbon pricing expands. For instance, hydropower-based smelters in Iceland and Quebec report operating costs up to 30% lower than coal-based plants in China.

Investment in renewable-powered smelting hubs is also accelerating. In 2025, new projects in Europe, Canada, and the Middle East are expected to increase global capacity for low-carbon aluminum by 3–4 million tons.

Industry Moves, Policy Levers, and Challenges Ahead

Automakers, electronics makers, and construction firms are driving the shift. Mercedes-Benz, Apple, and Volvo all signed long-term contracts for low-carbon aluminum to cut supply chain emissions.

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to take effect in 2026, will tax imports based on embedded CO₂. This policy will pressure high-emission producers to decarbonize faster.

Governments are also funding clean smelting projects. In 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy awarded over $500 million program. This program aims to boost aluminum decarbonization and improve recycling infrastructure.

Countries rich in bauxite, like Guinea and Indonesia, are enjoying higher global demand. However, they also face pressure to improve environmental standards in mining and refining.

Scaling low-carbon aluminum faces three main challenges:

  • Energy transition: Replacing fossil electricity with renewables near smelters requires billions in new investments.
  • Recycling infrastructure: Global collection systems remain fragmented; less than 40% of post-consumer scrap is recovered.
  • Verification: Without strict standards, false “green aluminum” claims risk damaging trust.

Aluminum could become one of the biggest enablers of decarbonization. Every tonne of low-carbon aluminum can reduce lifecycle emissions in cars, solar farms, and power lines by several tonnes of CO₂.

To meet climate goals, producers, investors, and governments must collaborate. Expanding renewable energy for smelting is key. Scaling up recycling is also important, as well as having traceable and verified supply chains to succeed.

With the right policies and innovation, aluminum can become a cleaner material. It can support the energy transition by helping create lighter, stronger, and more sustainable systems.

The post Aluminum Prices Hit 3-Year High: Is It the Next Key Metal in the Clean Energy Shift? appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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China’s Grip on Lithium Tightens as Global Supply Struggles to Keep Up

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China’s Grip on Lithium Tightens as Global Supply Struggles to Keep Up

China has strengthened its hold on the world’s lithium supply chain. The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) updated China’s catalogue of technologies prohibited or restricted from export. They added important battery and lithium processing technologies. This includes lithium carbonate and hydroxide preparation, along with cathode material manufacturing.

The metal is essential for electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage. With control over lithium mining, processing, and manufacturing, China now dominates nearly every part of this fast-growing sector.

The move lets Beijing control what technical know-how leaves China. It also strengthens its grip on the clean energy supply chain. This control affects global lithium prices, investment, and clean energy goals across Europe, the U.S., and Asia.

China’s Expanding Role in Lithium Production

Lithium demand has soared as countries push for cleaner transport and renewable energy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global lithium demand jumped almost 30% in 2024. This rise came mainly from EV production and big battery storage needs.

lithium demand outlook and mining requirements
Source: IEA

China produces about 18% of the world’s mined lithium, but its real strength lies in refining. Chinese companies hold about 65% of the world’s lithium chemical processing. They also account for over 75% of global battery cell production. These numbers show that even if lithium ore is mined in Chile, Argentina, or Australia, most of it ends up in Chinese refineries, which process it into battery-grade material.

china lithium and other battery minerals production
Source: EIA

China also leads in midstream and downstream battery manufacturing. In 2024, China made more than 1,200 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of lithium-ion batteries. That’s around three-quarters of the world’s total, as reported by BloombergNEF.

Major producers like CATL and BYD supplied both domestic and foreign automakers, including Tesla, BMW, and Toyota.

The country’s major players, such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, have spent years investing in foreign mines. They invest in lithium projects in South America, Africa, and Australia. This helps them secure long-term access to raw materials. This strategy ensures China’s industry gets the feedstock it needs, supports local gigafactories, and boosts global exports.

How Beijing’s Moves Sway Global Lithium Markets

Lithium prices have been on a roller coaster. After record highs in 2022, prices dropped sharply in 2023 and early 2024 due to oversupply. But by mid-2025, prices in China began to rebound. Lithium carbonate traded between CNY 59,000 and 69,000 per metric ton (roughly US$8,500–9,000).

lithium price

Industry analysts say Chinese producers used this price flexibility to outcompete foreign suppliers. When prices drop, many non-Chinese mining firms, especially in Australia and Africa, struggle to stay profitable.

Some market experts think China oversupplied the market on purpose. They believe this was to keep global influence and slow down rival producers.

Despite recent rebounds, volatility remains high. The IEA warns that lithium demand may double by 2030. It could reach over 1.3 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) each year. Without new mines and processing capacity, global shortages might return. This could lead to price spikes that impact battery and EV production worldwide.

Technology and Export Controls

China’s advantage goes beyond production scale. It now leads in processing technology, equipment, and battery chemistry. Beijing is now limiting exports of lithium-processing machines and technology. This move aims to protect local industries and manage intellectual property.

In 2025, several Chinese equipment suppliers limited shipments abroad. This makes it harder for competitors in the U.S. and Europe to build their own refining systems. These export limits are part of a broader strategy to keep the high-value stages of the supply chain inside China.

China in global lithium supply chain 2025

Meanwhile, the U.S. IRA provides up to $369 billion for climate and energy. It includes strong incentives for local battery and mineral production. Europe’s Critical Raw Materials Act aims for 40% of critical minerals used in the EU to come from local or allied sources by 2030. But industry analysts say it could take up to a decade for these efforts to significantly reduce dependence on China.

The Global Response: Diversifying Supply Chains

Governments and companies are now racing to reduce dependence on China. The United States, Canada, and Australia are expanding domestic mining and refining. Chile and Argentina, along with other South American nations, are building local industries. They aim to process lithium instead of just exporting raw materials.

The IEA warns that global lithium supply must increase sevenfold by 2035 to meet climate goals. That means bringing new mines and refineries online faster while maintaining environmental standards.

In 2024, the World Bank estimated that over €680 billion (US$730 billion) was invested in renewable power and storage. However, only a small part funded the raw material supply. If supply growth lags, battery shortages could slow EV production by the late 2020s.

However, challenges persist. Lithium extraction can strain water resources and ecosystems. Building new facilities also requires stable regulation and financing, which can take years to secure.

Surge Battery Metals: Strengthening North American Supply

In North America, one of the emerging players helping to diversify lithium supply is Surge Battery Metals (CSE: NILI). The company is developing the Nevada North Lithium Project. This project is in one of the U.S.’s most promising lithium-rich areas.

Surge aims to produce battery-grade lithium for the growing North American EV market. Its exploration results have shown strong potential for large-scale, high-grade lithium clay deposits. Projects like Surge’s align with U.S. efforts to build a secure domestic supply chain and reduce reliance on imports from China.

Surge helps ensure supply security and meet environmental goals by creating cleaner extraction and processing methods. Its work supports the U.S. Department of Energy’s plan to create a domestic battery materials supply chain. It seeks to meet 90% of the country’s lithium demand by 2035.

What’s Ahead: Competition, Cooperation, and Climate Goals

The global lithium race is about more than profits. It shapes the pace of the clean energy transition. China’s dominance gives it both economic power and geopolitical influence. Western economies are investing a lot to find new supplies and to lower strategic risks.

The market outlook suggests demand will remain strong throughout the decade. Analysts expect lithium prices to stabilize as new supply enters the market, but competition will remain intense.

For the world to meet its climate goals, cooperation will be as important as competition. Shared technology, recycling, and sustainability standards could help reduce emissions and stabilize supply chains.

Surge Battery Metals and other new miners are working to localize production. They aim to boost transparency and ensure lithium supply helps the clean energy transition, not hinders it.

China now controls the heart of the global lithium industry, from mining and refining to battery exports. This dominance brings both opportunity and risk. The rest of the world is responding, but catching up will take time, investment, and innovation.

The post China’s Grip on Lithium Tightens as Global Supply Struggles to Keep Up appeared first on Carbon Credits.

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