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This year is shaping up to either match or surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record.

Global temperatures have been exceptionally high over the past three months – at around 1.6C above pre-industrial levels – following the peak of current El Niño event at the start of 2024.

The past 10 months have all set new all-time monthly temperature records, though the margin by which new records have been set has fallen from around 0.3C last year to 0.1C over the first three months of 2024.

April 2024 is on track to extend this streak to 11 record months in a row.

The first quarter of this year has seen record-high global temperatures across vast swathes of the planet, including in the tropical Atlantic and western Pacific oceans, much of South America, Central Africa, the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean.

Based on the year so far and the current El Niño forecast, Carbon Brief estimates that global temperatures in 2024 are likely to average out at around 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Although precise predictions are difficult so early in the year, Carbon Brief’s projection suggests that 2024 is virtually certain to be either the warmest or second-warmest year on record.

Global temperatures continue setting records

The first three months of 2024 have each set a new record, buoyed by the peak of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific.

This short-term natural variability builds on top of the roughly 1.3C warming that has occurred since the mid-1800s due to human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

The figure below shows how global temperature so far in 2024 (purple line) compares to each month in different years since 1940 (with lines coloured by the decade in which they occurred) in the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 surface temperature dataset.

Temperatures for each month from 1940 to 2024 from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Temperatures for each month from 1940 to 2024 from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Every month from June 2023 onward – 10 months in a row – have set a clear record. The past three months have each been around 0.1C warmer than the prior record set during the 2016 super El Niño event.

In this latest quarterly state of the climate assessment, Carbon Brief analyses records from five different research groups that report global surface temperature records: NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF.

The figure below shows the annual temperatures from each of these groups since 1970, along with the average over the first three months of 2024. (Note: at the time of writing, March data was not yet available for the Hadley/UEA record.)

Annual global mean surface temperatures from NASA GISTEMP, NOAA GlobalTemp, Hadley/UEA HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF (lines), along with 2024 temperatures so far (January-March, coloured dots). Anomalies plotted with respect to the 1981-2010 period, and shown relative to pre-industrial based on the average pre-industrial temperatures in the Hadley/UEA, NOAA and Berkeley datasets that extend back to 1850. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Annual global mean surface temperatures from NASA GISTEMP, NOAA GlobalTemp, Hadley/UEA HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF (lines), along with 2024 temperatures so far (January-March, coloured dots). Anomalies plotted with respect to the 1981-2010 period, and shown relative to pre-industrial based on the average pre-industrial temperatures in the Hadley/UEA, NOAA and Berkeley datasets that extend back to 1850. Chart by Carbon Brief.

The globe, as a whole, has warmed around 1C since 1970, with strong agreement between different global temperature records. However, there are larger differences between temperature records further back in time (particularly pre-1900) due to sparser observations and a resulting greater sensitivity to how gaps between measurements are filled in.

All show that the average global temperature for 2024 so far is higher than any prior annual record. However, the first quarter of 2024 is unlikely to end up being representative of the year as a whole due to the fading of El Niño conditions and the expectation of a developing La Niña event later in the year.

Record global daily temperatures

The figure below shows daily temperature data from the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 record for 2024 (purple line), 2023 (red line) and 1940-2022 (grey lines).

It highlights that April 2024 is on track to continue the streak of record warm months, with most of the individual days of the month so far setting a new daily record for the time of year.

Temperatures for each month from 1940 to 2024 from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Daily global temperatures from 1940 to present (20 April 2024) from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5, with daily values for each year plotted as a separate line. The colours indicate 2024 (purple), 2023 (red) and all other years (grey). Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.

The chart below shows an alternative visualisation, with daily temperatures shown by colours ranging from blue (-2C) to red (+2C), with the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) set to 0C. The figure below shows each day since 1940 in the Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 dataset.

How daily global temperatures have warmed since 1940
Heat map of daily temperatures for each day from 1940 to present (April 20th, 2024) from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.

It is notable that almost every day over the past 50 years has seen temperatures higher than pre-industrial levels, with both 2023 and 2024 so far showing up as particularly warm compared to any prior years in the record.

El Niño boosting human-caused warming

Global temperatures have been buoyed in recent months by a strong El Niño event. However, this event has peaked and is expected to transition into La Niña conditions in the latter part of the year.

The figure below shows a range of different forecast models for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for the rest of this year, produced by different scientific groups. The values shown are sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific – the El Niño 3.4 region – for overlapping three-month periods.

Model predictions of ENSO from April 2024
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast models for overlapping three-month periods in the Niño3.4 region (December, January, February – DJF – and so on) for the remainder of 2024. Credit: Images provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School

Virtually all models expect El Niño conditions to fade rapidly and be replaced by La Niña conditions by late summer. Most models project a moderate La Niña (<-0.5C Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature – SST – anomaly) to develop by the end of the year.

Early predictions for a warm 2024

Historically, the highest global surface temperatures have occurred after an El Niño has peaked at the start of the year.

This happened in both of the last two major El Niño events, in 1998 and 2016, which were notably warmer than the prior years (1997 and 2015) during which their respective El Niño events developed.

However, 2023 was highly unusual. It showed global temperatures more akin to what we would expect after El Niño peaks, rather than while it is still developing.

Annual temperatures ended up well outside of the range that all of the different scientific groups projected at the start of the year. There is still no agreed explanation for the extreme warmth, particularly in the latter half of the year.

The figure below shows the record margin (red bars) – the amount that global average temperatures surpassed the prior monthly temperature record – in each month of over the past year.

Summer and autumn 2023 saw records being set by large margins: 0.5C in September, 0.4C in October and 0.3C in July, August, November and December.

Margin by which new monthly temperature records have been set over the past 12 months. Using data from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Margin by which new monthly temperature records have been set over the past 12 months. Using data from Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5. Chart by Carbon Brief.

The past three months have seen new records set by only around 0.1C. The prior records for January, February, and March were set in 2016, and given the rate of warming since then we would expect new records to be set by about 0.1C in the year after El Niño peaks. If this year follows the trajectory of 2016, we would expect global temperatures to start falling over the coming months.

However, the fact that the exceptional warmth of 2023 remains largely unexplained raises questions about whether the past will be a good guide for what 2024 has in store. If the latter half of 2024 ends up similar to 2023, there is a worry that we might be entering what has been described as “uncharted territory” for the climate.

As NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt noted in a recent Nature commentary:

“If the anomaly does not stabilise by August – a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events – then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated. It could also mean that statistical inferences based on past events are less reliable than we thought, adding more uncertainty to seasonal predictions of droughts and rainfall patterns.”

By looking at the relationship between the first three months and the annual temperatures for every year since 1970 – as well as ENSO conditions for the first three months of the year and the projected development of El Niño conditions for the remaining nine months – Carbon Brief has created a projection of what the final global average temperature for 2024 will likely turn out to be.

The analysis includes the estimated uncertainty in 2024 outcomes, given that temperatures from only the first quarter of the year are available so far. The chart below shows the expected range of 2024 temperatures using the Copernicus/ECMWF global atmospheric reanalysis product (ERA5) – including a best-estimate (red) and year-to-date value (yellow). Temperatures are shown with respect to the pre-industrial baseline period (1850-1900).

Annual global average surface temperature anomalies from the Copernicus/ECMWF global atmospheric reanalysis product (ERA5) plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. To-date 2024 values include January-March. The estimated 2024 annual value is based on the relationship between the January-March temperatures and annual temperatures between 1970 and 2023. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Annual global average surface temperature anomalies from the Copernicus/ECMWF global atmospheric reanalysis product (ERA5) plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. To-date 2024 values include January-March. The estimated 2024 annual value is based on the relationship between the January-March temperatures and annual temperatures between 1970 and 2023. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Carbon Brief’s projection suggests that 2024 is virtually certain to be either the warmest or second- warmest year on record, with a central estimate just above 1.5C, slightly higher than 2023. However, this model assumes that 2024 follows the type of climate patterns we have seen in the past – patterns that were notably broken in 2023.

It is worth repeating that an individual year hitting 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is not equivalent to the 1.5C limit within the Paris Agreement. This limit refers to long-term warming, rather than an individual year that includes the short-term influence of natural fluctuations in the climate, such as El Niño.

The figure below shows Carbon Brief’s estimate of 2024 temperatures using ERA5, both at the beginning of the year and once each month’s data has come in. While the central estimates have remained relatively unchanged, the uncertainty has diminished with each additional month of data.

Carbon Brief’s projection of global temperatures at the start of the year, and after January, February, and March ERA5 data became available.

Carbon Brief’s projection of global temperatures at the start of the year, and after January, February, and March ERA5 data became available.

Record warmth over large parts of the globe

While global average surface temperature changes are an important indicator of long-term climate change, any month or year will have important regional warm or cool patterns in different parts of the world.

The first three months of 2024 saw particularly warm temperatures over the tropical Atlantic and western Pacific oceans, much of South America, Central Africa, the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean.
The figure below shows the difference between temperatures in the first three months of 2024 and the baseline period of 1951-80, taken from Berkeley Earth (using their high-resolution temperature dataset). Red, orange and yellow shading indicate areas that have been warmer than average, while blue shows areas that have been cooler.

Seasonal anomaly map, relative to 1951-1980 average
Global surface temperature anomalies for the first three months of 2024 compared to a 1951-80 baseline period. Figure from Berkeley Earth.

The figure below shows which portions of the Earth’s surface experienced record high temperatures (deep red shading) for the first three months of 2024. It is noteworthy that no location on the planet experienced record cold temperatures over the first quarter of the year.

Seasonal rank map, compared to available similar periods since 1850
Locations setting record warm temperatures in the first three months of 2023 based on data back to 1850. Figure from Berkeley Earth.

Sea ice at the low end of the historical range

Arctic sea ice extent spent much of early 2024 at the low end of the historical 1979-2010 range, and set a few new record-low values for individual days in February and March.

Since northern hemisphere winter conditions remain cold enough to refreeze sea ice, there tends to be less variability in extent year-to-year in the winter than in the summer.

Following an all-time low maximum in September 2023, Antarctic sea ice has been tracking at near-record-low extent for the past six months. In late February, it hit its minimum extent for the year, tying with 2022 for the second-lowest Antarctic minimum in the satellite record.

The figure below shows both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 (solid red and blue lines), the historical range in the record between 1979 and 2010 (shaded areas) and the record lows (dotted black line). Unlike global temperature records (which only report monthly averages), sea ice data is collected and updated on a daily basis, allowing sea ice extent to be viewed up to the present.

Arctic and Antarctic daily sea ice extent from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. The bold lines show daily 2024 values, the shaded area indicates the two standard deviation range in historical values between 1979 and 2010. The dotted black lines show the record lows for each pole. Chart by Carbon Brief.

Arctic and Antarctic daily sea ice extent from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. The bold lines show daily 2024 values, the shaded area indicates the two standard deviation range in historical values between 1979 and 2010. The dotted black lines show the record lows for each pole. Chart by Carbon Brief.

However, sea ice extent only tells part of the story. In addition to declining ice extent, the sea ice that remains tends to be younger and thinner than ice that used to cover the region.

The figure below, using data from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), shows the Arctic sea ice thickness for every year between 1979 and 2024.

Arctic sea ice volume anomaly and trend from PIOMAS
Arctic sea-ice volume anomalies from 1979 through March 2024 from PIOMAS.

While sea ice volume has been flat or slightly increasing over the past five years, there has been a clear downward trend in sea ice volume since the start of the satellite record in the late 1970s.

The post State of the climate: 2024 off to a record-warm start appeared first on Carbon Brief.

State of the climate: 2024 off to a record-warm start

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WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in

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The World Health Organization (WHO) has unveiled new guidance for governments seeking to protect people from extreme heat, a growing priority as climate change pushes temperatures higher worldwide and intensifies heatwaves and related health risks.

The launch came as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday that El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific. The climate phenomenon – which occurs naturally every few years – is predicted to intensify to a moderate or strong level this autumn, the service said.

Scientists have warned that a strong El Niño weather pattern could fuel “unprecedented” weather extremes in the coming months, including severe fires and droughts, and may make 2027 the next record-breaking hot year as it supercharges human-driven warming.  

Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026

Unveiling updated recommendations for “Heat-Health Action Plans”, which are tailored for Europe but can be adapted globally, Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO’s regional director for Europe, said that over the past four years, heat has claimed more than 200,000 lives across 32 European countries.

He added that most of those deaths were “entirely preventable” and are “just the tip of the iceberg”, with millions more people being affected physically and mentally by the effects of extreme heat. Scientists have said Europe is the fastest-warming continent.

“Individual action, such as keeping out of the heat, keeping our homes cool and keeping our bodies hydrated, can make a big difference in protecting us, but it is not enough to fight a systemic crisis,” Kluge said in a statement. “We need a coordinated, powerful and institutional response.”

The new guidance focuses on the importance of providing early warning and alerts, targeting vulnerable groups and putting in place longer-term prevention measures across households and buildings, especially in cities which are often hotter than rural areas, as well as offering practical advice on how to do that.

Who’s most vulnerable to heat?

Heat can trigger exhaustion and heat stroke, and exacerbate existing medical conditions, including diabetes and cardiovascular, respiratory and cerebrovascular diseases, as well as disrupting sleep and aggravating mental health conditions.

In a fact-sheet, the WHO warned that rising global temperatures, more people living in cities and demographic aging are increasing exposure to heat and vulnerability to its impacts. Some of the most at-risk groups include older people, children, outdoor workers, athletes and sports players, those attending mass public gatherings and poorer social groups, it said.

Employers need plans to protect workers from rising heat stress, UN says

The WHO emphasised, however, that it does not just propose wider use of air-conditioning (AC) as the solution because it is not sustainable, is often unaffordable for those with low incomes and increases energy demand.

“It contributes to both the urban heat island effect and climate change, thus worsening heat exposures in the medium and long term,” the fact-sheet said.

Europe’s intense May heatwave

On Wednesday, Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced that May 2026 was the second warmest May on record globally across land and sea.

Across Europe, the month saw a rapid transition from much cooler-than-average conditions to one of the most intense heatwaves ever observed this early in the year in western Europe, C3S said. Numerous temperature records were broken for May with France, the UK, Ireland and Portugal enduring particularly severe conditions, it added.

C3S noted that the quick flip to a period of extreme heat “likely increased impacts on populations, leaving little time for people – or crops and ecosystems during growing season – to acclimatise to much higher temperatures”.

“Prepare for rougher times”

In a foreword to the new WHO heat plan guidance, Wopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, wrote that extreme heat is responsible for some 95% of all climate-related deaths in Europe, undermines labour productivity and risks overwhelming hospitals.

He noted that investing in emission reductions is far cheaper than paying for climate damage.

“Yet, while we push for emission reductions, we must also prepare for rougher times. Strengthening Europe’s climate resilience, protecting both well-being and economies, is non-negotiable,” he added.

By the end of this year, the European Union plans to adopt a new framework for climate resilience across all sectors, including health.

A woman cools herself with an electric portable fan during a heatwave, in London, Britain, August 12, 2025. (Photo: REUTERS/Jack Taylor)

A woman cools herself with an electric portable fan during a heatwave, in London, Britain, August 12, 2025. (Photo: REUTERS/Jack Taylor)

In the UK, the independent Climate Change Committee warned last month that, in a projected scenario of 2C of global warming by 2050, recent record hot summers will become the “new normal” in the usually temperate country, putting regular stress on domestic agricultural production.

Heatwaves lasting at least a week will be common and could regularly exceed 40C in the south, the committee’s report on adaptation said, posing challenges for keeping vulnerable people sufficiently cool.

It recommended that cooling will be needed in hospitals, prisons, schools and care homes, while regulation should set maximum temperature limits for workplaces.

Berlin’s Heat-Health Action Plan

On Thursday, the WHO said that since the publication of the first edition of its heat and health guidance in 2008, far more scientific evidence and practical experience have been gained. Many countries have since established Heat-Health Action Plans, but their adoption and implementation have been uneven, it said.

Comment: Early warnings for heatwaves can save lives – and we need them now

In Germany, where local authorities are primarily responsible for heat protection, the Berlin Senate adopted a state-wide heat–health action plan in 2025. It contains 72 measures to improve heat protection for residents, including informing them every summer of the risks via traditional and digital media.

A heat protection portal offers access to Berlin’s heat–health action plan, and a map of cool places in the city, as well as behavioural advice.

Berlin Senator Ina Czyborra said the city is also working on the long-term maintenance and expansion of parks, green spaces and water bodies, which can all help alleviate the effects of heat.

“One thing is clear: protection from heat is a cross-cutting task that can only be tackled through a joint effort by all administrative departments and levels, and with the involvement of civil society actors,” she added in a statement.

The post WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in appeared first on Climate Home News.

WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in

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China Briefing 11 June 2026: Tech clampdown | Extreme weather | Provinces’ energy plans

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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight. Subscribe for free here.

Key developments

Trade tensions intensify

AUTHORITY TO RETALIATE: China has issued “sweeping” new rules that increase “controls over the overseas transfer of domestic technology”, while also giving the government “explicit” authority to retaliate against governments that restrict Chinese investments, reported finance news outlet Caixin. The rules are a “shield for Chinese enterprises”, argued an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily, as well as a way to “protect” China’s “development interests”. Cosimo Ries, an analyst at Trivium China, told Carbon Brief that protecting China’s lead in cleantech manufacturing is one of the aims of the regulations. He said that language around restrictive foreign actions is, in his view, “clearly designed as a response” to the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act. Ries added that the government is “increasingly working to prevent Chinese IP from being forcefully appropriated or handed away by its own companies seeking market access abroad”.

COMMISSIONERS MEET: The rules come as the EU debates plans to “broaden the use of its trade defences” to protect industries from what the EU industry commissioner described to the Financial Times as “unfair” Chinese competition. A meeting of EU commissioners reaffirmed the need for a “more robust and coherent” response to trade and investment from China, which is seen as “not sustainable”, according to a readout from the European Commission. In response, China said it will “resolutely” retaliate to any “discriminatory” EU trade measures, reported Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Chinese automaker SAIC has confirmed plans to invest €200m ($232m) to build a factory in Spain for vehicles including electric vehicles, said Caixin. Trade envoys from the EU and China backed further discussions after a meeting in early June, reported Reuters.

SURPLUS ‘WIDENED’: According to Chinese customs data covered by Bloomberg, China’s trade surplus with the EU “widened slightly” in May, though its exports to the bloc “slowed”. The outlet added ongoing EU-China trade tensions “could pose a risk to Beijing’s favoured ‘new three’ energy industries”, for which the EU was the “destination for about 40% of exports” in 2025. While country-specific data is not yet available, China’s global exports of “green products”, such as batteries and wind turbines, grew by around 40% in January-May, according to state news agency Xinhua.

Early heat tests China’s grid

PATTERNS BROKEN: China Southern Power Grid, which covers a number of provinces across southern China, reported that it saw a record electricity load of 259 gigawatts (GW) in late May, according to Shanghai-based outlet the Paper. It added that the new record – driven by “widespread cooling demand” due to high temperatures – came “nearly a month earlier” than usual, “breaking a seasonal pattern” where peaks occurred in June and July. High temperatures continued in early June across both northern and southern China, reported China Daily, with some regions reporting temperatures of almost 40C.

HEAVY RAINS: China also continued to see heavy rains across “multiple provinces in southern China”, reported China Daily, with “nearly 10,000 residents” evacuated in Guizhou after torrential rains caused flooding in the area. Flood-response measures have been activated in Hunan and Guangxi, said Bloomberg. The Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily said that floods were also expected in Yunnan, Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Meanwhile, northern China’s Hebei province experienced “dramatic” weather, including “thunderstorms, strong winds, hail and heavy downpours”, said Jing-Jin-Ji News Channel.

CROP RISK: “Against the backdrop of intensifying global warming, northern China is seeing a clear trend of more frequent and severe extreme weather,” said the People’s Daily. Meteorologists attributed the unusually early and intense rain to shifting weather patterns that “reflects broader weather changes in China associated with global warming”, said Bloomberg. An article in the People’s Daily noted that extreme and unusual weather, driven by “climate change”, has “posed varying degrees of risks and challenges to agricultural production”. Another Bloomberg article said expected further rains in southern China could “inundat[e] crops and damag[e] rice fields”.

Mineral trade controls and concerns

EXPORTS BLOCKED: Elsewhere, the Chinese government has “penalised at least 11 companies this year for illegally exporting restricted rare earths and critical minerals”, reported Caixin. It said this included a subsidiary of solar manufacturer JA (formerly JA Solar) for “shipping unlicensed graphite parts to Vietnam”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported that China’s rare-earth exports fell by 6.4% in May as “Beijing maintained tight control over shipments”. A new report on rare earths by the Center for Strategic and International Studies stated that “although China’s exports of rare earths and rare-earth magnets have resumed”, flows have been “highly volatile” and licensing has been “uneven”. This was echoed in a report by the Royal United Services Institute that said “China incentivises the export of final products containing rare earths…rather than rare earths themselves”, which could pose “risks” to electric vehicle (EV) and offshore wind supply chains.

EXPORTS CONTROLLED: Zimbabwe has announced that a Chinese company will establish a lithium-carbonate plant in the country, said Bloomberg. It said this followed a ban on lithium exports as the country aimed to “build up local processing capacity for the battery metal”. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Chinese investors in Indonesia’s coal-dependent nickel industry are looking to other countries. It said this followed plans by the Indonesian government to plan nickel export controls, tighter quotas and tax hikes.

More China news

  • ‘GEC’ GUIDANCE: A new set of trial guidelines has been issued to “unify” how clean-electricity consumption is measured, said state broadcaster CCTV. Ying (Jenny) Zheng, a researcher at the Tsinghua TianGong Thinktank, told Carbon Brief that the measures are more than just accounting guidelines. She said they provide a “foundation for one of the key control indicators within China’s emerging carbon-control framework” that should help boost consumption of low-carbon power.
  • TOWNS AND TRACTORS: China called for “vigorous efforts” to develop low-carbon buildings in a new 15th five-year plan for “urban renewal”, said BJX News. A five-year plan for agriculture also listed “accelerating” the “green transformation” of agriculture as one of seven key tasks, said Xinhua.
  • FUNDRAISING FIGURES: China raised 6bn yuan ($885m) in green sovereign bonds, reported Bloomberg. It said these have previously been used for emissions reductions and “biodiversity preservation”.
  • SALES SLUMP: Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids in China fell 7.5% year-on-year in May, reported Reuters. It said they nevertheless made up 62% of all sales, with the Associated Press noting that petrol-car sales fell 42%.
  • UK DIALOGUE: UK foreign secretary Yvette Cooper told her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that the UK is willing to “deepen cooperation” with China on energy and climate change, according to a readout by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
  • MEASURING SUBSIDIES: The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released a report saying Chinese companies received “three to eight times more government support than firms based in the OECD”, said Agence France Presse. China’s commerce ministry responded saying the report was “one-sided and arbitrary”, according to Xinhua.

Captured

China’s emissions in January-March 2026 rose 2% year-on-year, driven by growing “curtailment” of wind and solar in the power sector due to “inflexible grid management”, said new analysis for Carbon Brief.

Spotlight 

What do China’s provincial five-year plans reveal about its energy transition?

China’s provincial-level governments have now all published their 15th five-year plans – economic and social development blueprints for 2026-2030.

In this issue, Carbon Brief analyses what all 31 documents say about energy and climate.

Provinces remain focused on clean energy

At the broad level, the new provincial plans follow China’s overarching climate goals. All 31 provincial-level jurisdictions in mainland China pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030.

Every plan also mentioned the core elements of China’s energy transition strategy, including solar, wind, hydrogen, energy storage and upgrading the power grid.

While solar featured in every plan, specific interests in the technology vary from province to province.

Some set goals to add new solar capacity by 2030. Zhejiang province aims to add 90GW of solar capacity, while Shaanxi plans to “accelerate” construction of wind and solar “bases”. Several others mentioned developing offshore solar farms in the next five years.

However, others instead focused on recycling old solar panels or strengthening solar R&D.

Almost every plan mentioned growing consumption and production of new-energy vehicles (NEVs).

Around 15 provinces mentioned promoting NEV uptake. Jilin set a target for NEVs comprising more than 50% of new car sales by 2030, although its current rate is already thought to be 47%.

While the central government is issuing directives to limit “overcapacity” in the sector, more than 20 provinces said they will continue developing their NEV industries, with many aiming to generate hundreds of billions – or even trillions – of yuan in value.

Meanwhile, 24 provinces will prioritise developing renewable power “direct connection” models, in which renewable generators supply industrial users via a dedicated line – a system that could boost consumption of clean energy.

Number of Chinese provinces that mention key climate and energy terms in their 15th five-year plans.
Number of provinces that mention key climate and energy terms in their 15th five-year plans. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of provincial 15th five-year plans.

Provinces diverge in terms of what other technologies they name and how detailed their plans are.

For example, offshore wind and nuclear are mentioned by 11 and 12 provinces respectively, with both technologies mostly targeted to be built in coastal provinces.

But in general, variation reflects more than just geography or resources endowment, said Anders Hove, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“The differences between provinces reflect primarily differences in economic development capabilities and industrial structure,” he told Carbon Brief.

Half of provinces to expand fossil-fuel production

Almost every province pledged to peak coal and oil consumption, in line with similar language in the national-level plan.

However, 17 local governments also pledged to produce more fossil fuels – trying to peak consumption while also expanding output, opening new reserves or lifting production limits.

Most of these are regions designated as national energy-supply bases, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu and Heilongjiang.

Yang Li, deputy executive director at the Beijing-based thinktank Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP), toldCarbon Brief this pattern reflects the “two dimensions of China’s [energy] transition”. These are a national-level push for peaking fossil-fuel consumption and a desire for energy security by provinces rich in energy resources.

Provinces with significant fossil-fuel economies are also the most likely to mention carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), which appears in 14 plans.

Provinces jostle to take the lead on AI and hydrogen 

With the national government preparing to spend trillions of yuan on datacentres for the artificial intelligence (AI) industry in the next five years, provincial officials are also tying AI to their energy systems.

More than 20 aim to use AI to help manage coal mines, power grids, oilfields and forecasting renewables output.

Yang said that “AI+energy” represents a desire by policymakers to use AI to enhance energy governance, but adds that “large-scale commercialisation [of the technology] still has some way to go”.

Unlike AI, all provincial plans mention hydrogen, which is named as a “future industry” in the central-level five-year plan.

For example, Hunan calls for promoting hydrogen trucks and rail transport and developing “renewable energy-based” hydrogen production, while Shandong pledges to focus on technological breakthroughs around hydrogen transport and storage, as well as production of green hydrogen.

Similarly, 12 provinces named the other energy-related future industry – nuclear fusion, which remains an experimental technology – as a priority for the next five years. These provinces include Anhui, Guangdong, Hebei, Hubei and Shaanxi.

This spotlight is by freelance China analyst Lekai Liu for Carbon Brief.

Watch, read, listen

FUTURE-FOCUSED: Qiushi, China’s official journal for political theory, published an edition based on “future industries”, in which President Xi Jinping called for advancing hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion.

MIGHTY MANGROVES: The Grantham Research Institute explored China’s uptake of “blue carbon credits”, which could help preserve “powerful carbon sinks” in coastal ecosystems.

IN THE LEAD: Mission Possible Partnership published a report saying China is “widening its lead” in developing a low-carbon industrial sector.

‘AUTOBESITY’: Blue Map examined “autobesity”, the trend towards larger Chinese EVs, and what this could mean for their carbon footprint


13

The number of Chinese solar companies that have joined forces to create the Space Energy Development Alliance, a new organisation to promote space solar energy, said Bloomberg.

5

Minutes devoted to the opening ceremony, which did not offer “any details” on the alliance’s objectives, according to the outlet.


New science 

  • National and provincial planning scenarios for China’s solar and wind expansion until 2060 will present different trade-offs with biodiversity | Nature Ecology and Evolution
  • Policies to decrease carbon emissions and declines in technology costs could together help achieve “deep” carbon emissions reductions by 2060 in China’s steel industry | PNAS

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China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu, and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

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The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations

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Vishal Prasad is director of Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change.

When the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered its advisory opinion on climate change last year, it marked a turning point not just for the Pacific, but for international climate law.

The court was unambiguous: states have legal obligations to protect the environment from greenhouse gas emissions, and they face accountability when they fail. For those of us who carried this campaign from a classroom in Vanuatu to Europe and New York, it was a moment of profound validation.

World’s top court opens door to compensation from countries responsible for climate crisis

But we have always said that the advisory opinion was a tool, not an endpoint. The ICJ affirmed what many in the Pacific have been saying for some time. Now we have a legal blueprint, we must carry this momentum from the courtrooms to the negotiating rooms.

Potential to shape climate politics

The advisory opinion has already begun to reshape the climate landscape. At COP30 in Belém, we saw countries that had supported the campaign citing the opinion in their interventions, while those blocking progress were clearly concerned of its implications. Its potential to shape climate politics and policy is significant.

This year we have arrived at the mid-year climate negotiations in Bonn not only with the advisory opinion, but with a UN General Assembly resolution endorsing it. Despite a fierce campaign from the usual suspects, just eight countries, including the USA, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran voted against. That is a victory for multilateralism at a moment when multilateralism is under strain.

UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court

But we know that advisory opinions alone are not enough. Legal clarity will not automatically translate into reduced emissions, increased finance flows or stronger national climate plans. That translation requires political will in the negotiating rooms, both here in Bonn and all the way through Fiji and finally in Antalya this November. 

What the Pacific needs from this negotiating year

The Pacific put significant political capital into the joint Australia-Pacific bid for COP31. It is fair to say that the compromise of Australia holding the role of president of negotiations while the COP is held and presided over by Türkiye is not what we imagined.

But we in the Pacific are used to looking for silver linings. Both Australia and Türkiye have acknowledged the important role the Pacific will have at COP31, through the appointment of Pacific champions and the hosting of a Pacific Pre-COP in Fiji with a leaders event in Tuvalu. These are genuine opportunities to bring the world to our shores and ensure that Pacific issues are front and centre going into the final negotiations.

But we are not naive. Envoy positions and meeting locations are just the architecture of goodwill. We need to see that goodwill converted into concrete negotiating outcomes and finance.

COP31 leaders unveil global targets, with spotlight on electrification

The Pacific helped put Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen in this important position, so we expect to see Australia advocate not only for us, but to turn a mirror towards itself as one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters. 

At Bonn, and then in Antalya, we need ambition on mitigation that reflects the ICJ’s clarity on state obligations and the science. That means action on fossil fuels. 

We need climate finance that is new, additional and accessible to the countries that need it most. In the Pacific we have already demonstrated what that looks like.

The Pacific Resilience Facility is the first climate finance facility designed, governed and managed by Pacific people, built specifically to reach the grassroots and community initiatives that larger funds routinely bypass. We need the international community to meet that ambition with contributions that reflect climate justice, starting with pledges to meet the $500-million capitalisation goal.

And we need the oceans – which are the lifeblood of the Pacific and a critical part of the global climate system – treated as a central element of the negotiations rather than a thematic aside.

Energy crisis driven by imported fossil fuels

The days of speaking about climate and fossil fuels purely as a moral issue are long gone. Pacific ministers recently adopted the Tassiriki Call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific, in the context of a deepening energy crisis that has triggered states of emergency in several Pacific nations. Our dependence on imported fossil fuels is both a climate and an economic vulnerability.

Conflict in the Middle East is pushing our region into an energy crisis. We are dependent on imported fossil fuels for 80% of our energy needs. My home country of Fiji could see an increased fuel bill of nearly three times our annual healthcare budget.

Comment: COP31 must persuade countries to make fossil fuel transition plans 

We need the technical and financial support to transition to 100% renewable energy. Not only because it is what the world owes us for decades of carbon pollution that continue to render parts of our home uninhabitable, damaging ecosystems and culture. But because we must be part of that transition. Fossil fuels have proven to be the greatest source of damage to our climate, and with their volatility, to our sovereignty as well.

What next?

The demands have not changed. Greater action on mitigation, adaptation, finance, loss and damage: these remain the substance of what the Pacific requires from the international community. What has changed is the legal foundation beneath them.

The ICJ has affirmed that these are not requests. They are obligations. The task this year is to make the negotiations reflect that.

The post The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations appeared first on Climate Home News.

The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations

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