Yesterday, a conservative friend asked me what I thought was going to happen in November.
I responded that I don’t have any insight into this that isn’t available to the rest of the world, but, if we’re simply extrapolating the future from the president, i.e., barring anything unforeseeable, it looks like a Biden victory.
I base this on:
• A starting point: Biden’s 7 million vote win in 2020.
• The president’s accomplishments, albeit not well publicized.
• The 91 felony charges against Trump, and the likely path of progress in the criminal trials between now and November.
• The probable effect of Biden’s advancing age.
• The results of the GOP primaries, in which an average of about 40% of Republicans voted against Trump.
It just seems that Trump has hit a hard limit in terms of his appeal to angry, easily persuaded, uneducated people. There are tens of millions of them, but their numbers can’t grow much further.
Let me ask this about the meme above. Yes, there are some voters who regard it as a fair and meaningful representation of the issue at the southern border, but, if we were guessing at a percentage, what would we estimate? It really couldn’t be more than about 25%.
Most people understand that illegal immigration is a serious, though complicated issue. There are laws, both domestic and international, that must be complied with. This is seen as the ultimate political football to some. But there are people on both sides of the aisle who are working to resolve the situation with intelligence and compassion.
Not sure about this.
A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard Law School might struggle to identify a bear. Could be.
This is the intelligence level of the American electorate today.
The Chinese ownership of American farmland is less than 0.00036, or 0.036%. To put this into perspective, if the entirety of U.S. farmland were reduced to one acre, the Chinese government and business interests would own less than 15 square feet, about half the size of a small broom closet.
Yet, true to form, this is a huge issue for the MAGA base.
This guy is quite effective in talking to uneducated, conservative Americans, most of whom have never traveled to, or even read anything about the happiest countries on Earth.
If I were going to make a statement about the relationship between social justice and despotism, I would at least consider the lives of the people in places that consider social justice to be something of importance, and compare/contrast this to the list of the countries that are perennially at the top of the World Happiness Rankings.
What makes the people in New Zealand, Iceland, Costa Rica, Northern Europe, etc., so happy? Why do these are these nations suffer exactly zero despotism?
I would be completely ashamed of myself if I were to forward a political theory that had precisely no basis in fact.
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