Emily Wilkinson is Principal Research Fellow at ODI and Director of the Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative (RESI)
With winds of up to 240 km/h, Hurricane Beryl ripped through the Caribbean in July earlier this year, causing catastrophic damage to Grenada’s northern islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, as well as on several islands in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Union Island saw 90% of houses severely damaged or destroyed and the island’s secondary school was turned into a shelter for the displaced. Many residents have been plunged into acute poverty, unable to reopen businesses or return to paid work.
Storms, floods and droughts are buffeting Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with increasing severity. After the immediate news reports die down however, populations of these places may face weeks, months or years living like this, deprived of essential needs whilst safe drinking water, electricity, permanent housing and other critical infrastructure is being restored.
Whole regions or islands and even people on previously good incomes end up tipped into crisis and deprived of essential material needs – what is known as multidimensional vulnerability in policy circles.
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A study by ODI, published today found that 20 million people, about one-third of those living in the world’s small island developing nations, are in this category – at severe risk of climate change-induced poverty that would deprive them of life’s essentials.
Our research also found that hidden brunt of climate-related disasters is borne more heavily by poorer households and individuals regardless of a nation’s development status. This reinforces the idea that we should be wary of assuming even small countries with high- or middle-income status can contend with these frequent shocks and often unsustainable public debt burden.
Whilst island nations face a multitude of challenges here, there is some hope that with a combination of money, and clever financial instruments borrowed from the insurance industry, we can make some progress in averting this poverty-climate trap that SIDS and other vulnerable countries face.
A little-known idea called a parametic trigger could hold the key. Parametric triggers are used by the insurance industry for floods, tropical cyclones and other hazards, where a threshold for compensation to be paid out is set in advance.
If the level of rainfall or wind speed goes beyond a trigger threshold, payment occurs without the need to go round assessing what the damage was. The loss and damage fund could use a similar mechanism.
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We already know that climate funding can be painfully slow to arrive, as can debt relief. But parametric triggers are one way of speeding this up. To channel support to those who need it, the trigger mechanism needs to be tied to specific groups of the population – those that are poor or vulnerable to poverty in the places most likely to experience extreme weather.
Governments can use existing social welfare systems and beneficiary lists to identify these individuals in advance, so payments can be made directly to them, and not end up being sat in an institutional bank account for months or years, waiting to be disbursed.
Such an approach has been used to good effect by the World Food Programme, for example. In Guatemala, and more recently in the Sahel, pay-outs were triggered when climatic variables including low rainfall or reduced vegetation are confirmed by satellite data.
Of course, these mechanisms won’t work without increased funding and targeted support to vulnerable countries, as well as recognition that poverty is related to climate shocks and is multidimensional and not just determined by a measure of income. This is going to be an essential job for negotiators as we head into COP29 in Azerbaijan, and later when the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage board meets in December.
For the loss and damage fund to work, we first need more cash – and quickly. Second, we need the fund to operate a fast finance mechanism like parametric triggers. And third we need the fund to target assistance at the most vulnerable nations and populations within them, for whom extreme weather events imperil their very existence.
The post Parametric triggers: How small islands can escape climate-poverty trap appeared first on Climate Home News.
Parametric triggers: How small islands can escape the climate-poverty trap
Climate Change
Hurricane Helene Is Headed for Georgians’ Electric Bills
A new storm recovery charge could soon hit Georgia Power customers’ bills, as climate change drives more destructive weather across the state.
Hurricane Helene may be long over, but its costs are poised to land on Georgians’ electricity bills. After the storm killed 37 people in Georgia and caused billions in damage in September 2024, Georgia Power is seeking permission from state regulators to pass recovery costs on to customers.
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Amid Affordability Crisis, New Jersey Hands $250 Million Tax Break to Data Center
Gov. Mikie Sherrill says she supports both AI and lowering her constituents’ bills.
With New Jersey’s cost-of-living “crisis” at the center of Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s agenda, her administration has inherited a program that approved a $250 million tax break for an artificial intelligence data center.
Amid Affordability Crisis, New Jersey Hands $250 Million Tax Break to Data Center
Climate Change
Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace
Gabrielle Dreyfus is chief scientist at the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, Thomas Röckmann is a professor of atmospheric physics and chemistry at Utrecht University, and Lena Höglund Isaksson is a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
This March scientists and policy makers will gather near the site in Italy where methane was first identified 250 years ago to share the latest science on methane and the policy and technology steps needed to rapidly cut methane emissions. The timing is apt.
As new tools transform our understanding of methane emissions and their sources, the evidence they reveal points to a single conclusion: Human-caused methane emissions are still rising, and global action remains far too slow.
This is the central finding of the latest Global Methane Status Report. Four years into the Global Methane Pledge, which aims for a 30% cut in global emissions by 2030, the good news is that the pledge has increased mitigation ambition under national plans, which, if fully implemented, could result in the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
The bad news is this is still short of the 30% target. The decisive question is whether governments will move quickly enough to turn that bend into the steep decline required to pump the brake on global warming.
What the data really show
Assessing progress requires comparing three benchmarks: the level of emissions today relative to 2020, the trajectory projected in 2021 before methane received significant policy focus, and the level required by 2030 to meet the pledge.
The latest data show that global methane emissions in 2025 are higher than in 2020 but not as high as previously expected. In 2021, emissions were projected to rise by about 9% between 2020 and 2030. Updated analysis places that increase closer to 5%. This change is driven by factors such as slower than expected growth in unconventional gas production between 2020 and 2024 and lower than expected waste emissions in several regions.
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This updated trajectory still does not deliver the reductions required, but it does indicate that the curve is beginning to bend. More importantly, the commitments already outlined in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions and Methane Action Plans would, if fully implemented, produce an 8% reduction in global methane emissions between 2020 and 2030. This would turn the current increase into a sustained decline. While still insufficient to reach the Global Methane Pledge target of a 30% cut, it would represent historical progress.
Solutions are known and ready
Scientific assessments consistently show that the technical potential to meet the pledge exists. The gap lies not in technology, but in implementation.
The energy sector accounts for approximately 70% of total technical methane reduction potential between 2020 and 2030. Proven measures include recovering associated petroleum gas in oil production, regular leak detection and repair across oil and gas supply chains, and installing ventilation air oxidation technologies in underground coal mines. Many of these options are low cost or profitable. Yet current commitments would achieve only one third of the maximum technically feasible reductions in this sector.
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Agriculture and waste also provide opportunities. Rice emissions can be reduced through improved water management, low-emission hybrids and soil amendments. While innovations in technology and practices hold promise in the longer term, near-term potential in livestock is more constrained and trends in global diets may counteract gains.
Waste sector emissions had been expected to increase more rapidly, but improvements in waste management in several regions over the past two decades have moderated this rise. Long-term mitigation in this sector requires immediate investment in improved landfills and circular waste systems, as emissions from waste already deposited will persist in the short term.
New measurement tools
Methane monitoring capacity has expanded significantly. Satellite-based systems can now identify methane super-emitters. Ground-based sensors are becoming more accessible and can provide real-time data. These developments improve national inventories and can strengthen accountability.
However, policy action does not need to wait for perfect measurement. Current scientific understanding of source magnitudes and mitigation effectiveness is sufficient to achieve a 30% reduction between 2020 and 2030. Many of the largest reductions in oil, gas and coal can be delivered through binding technology standards that do not require high precision quantification of emissions.
The decisive years ahead
The next 2 years will be critical for determining whether existing commitments translate into emissions reductions consistent with the Global Methane Pledge.
Governments should prioritise adoption of an effective international methane performance standard for oil and gas, including through the EU Methane Regulation, and expand the reach of such standards through voluntary buyers’ clubs. National and regional authorities should introduce binding technology standards for oil, gas and coal to ensure that voluntary agreements are backed by legal requirements.
One approach to promoting better progress on methane is to develop a binding methane agreement, starting with the oil and gas sector, as suggested by Barbados’ PM Mia Mottley and other leaders. Countries must also address the deeper challenge of political and economic dependence on fossil fuels, which continues to slow progress. Without a dual strategy of reducing methane and deep decarbonisation, it will not be possible to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
Mottley’s “legally binding” methane pact faces barriers, but smaller steps possible
The next four years will determine whether available technologies, scientific evidence and political leadership align to deliver a rapid transition toward near-zero methane energy systems, holistic and equity-based lower emission agricultural systems and circular waste management strategies that eliminate methane release. These years will also determine whether the world captures the near-term climate benefits of methane abatement or locks in higher long-term costs and risks.
The Global Methane Status Report shows that the world is beginning to change course. Delivering the sharper downward trajectory now required is a test of political will. As scientists, we have laid out the evidence. Leaders must now act on it.
The post Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace appeared first on Climate Home News.
Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace
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