Japan’s largest polluters are rushing to buy carbon credits ahead of the launch of the country’s mandatory emissions trading system. Trading activity on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) has surged as companies prepare for tighter climate rules and try to meet their corporate sustainability targets before the fiscal year ends.
According to Bloomberg, major Japanese companies are already purchasing credits on the TSE’s voluntary market in anticipation of the GX-ETS launch.
This buying spree highlights growing anxiety about future compliance costs. At the same time, it signals that Japan’s carbon market is shifting from a voluntary experiment to a central pillar of its climate strategy.
What Is the GX-ETS and Why Does It Matter
The Green Transformation Emissions Trading System (GX-ETS) is Japan’s national carbon trading program. The government launched it in 2023 under the GX League, a public-private platform designed to accelerate corporate decarbonization.
The GX-ETS mirrors the European Union’s emissions trading system. Companies receive or buy emissions allowances and can trade them. If they emit less than their cap, they can sell extra allowances. If they exceed limits, they must buy more or face penalties.
Timeline and Key Features
Japan is rolling out the GX-ETS in stages:
- Phase 1 (2023–2025): Voluntary participation and market testing
- Phase 2 (2026 onward): Mandatory participation for large emitters
- Future phases: Auctions, price bands, and fuel levies
Japan plans to introduce power sector auctions around 2033 and a fossil fuel importer levy by 2028. Policymakers are also considering price bands of ¥4,000 to ¥6,000 per tonne by 2027, with potential increases by 2030. Significantly, the compliance market will include a price ceiling and phased expansion with additional policy tools.
The system integrates voluntary credits into compliance trading. Companies can trade GX credits via call auctions on the TSE, with unmatched orders carried forward. This design aims to improve liquidity and price discovery.
Japan’s Path to Net-Zero by 2050
Japan made modest progress in reducing emissions in the first half of 2025. The Ministry of the Environment reported a 2.8% decline compared with the same period in 2024. For the full year, emissions are estimated at 1,070 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, down from about 1,272 million tonnes in 1990.
Much of this improvement came from energy efficiency gains in the industrial sector. However, Japan still relies heavily on fossil fuels, and transport emissions remain difficult to reduce. Consequently, current policies are projected to cut emissions by 31% to 37% below 2013 levels by 2030, which still falls short of the country’s 46% national climate target, excluding land-use emissions.

Heavy industries—such as steel, chemicals, cement, and power generation—account for more than 60% of national emissions, making them key GX-ETS targets. Therefore, the GX-ETS is expected to cover roughly 60% of Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions and support the country’s goal of achieving net zero by 2050.
Japan’s carbon tax remains low at about ¥289 per tonne (roughly $2.16), emphasizing the need for stronger market-based mechanisms. As a result, policymakers view the GX-ETS as a critical lever to accelerate emissions reductions and drive the nation toward net-zero.
Who Must Participate in the GX-ETS
Phase 1 of the GX-ETS was voluntary. However, Phase 2 will become mandatory in spring 2026. Companies emitting more than 100,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year must participate.
This rule affects roughly 300 to 400 companies. Together, they account for about 60% of Japan’s total emissions. Key sectors include steel, chemicals, cement, power generation, automotive manufacturing, and aviation.
Under current proposals, companies can use carbon credits to offset up to 10% of regulated emissions. Therefore, credits complement emissions cuts rather than replace them.
Pre-Compliance Buying Surge Among Big Polluters
Large Japanese companies are buying voluntary credits aggressively before the mandatory launch. TSE officials see strong demand driven by companies preparing for GX-ETS and rushing to retire credits before the fiscal year ends.
Reports also reveal that members of the GX League, such as Toshiba, Tokyo Gas, and Isuzu Motors, have already participated in voluntary trading. Analysts expect steelmakers, utilities, and other heavy industries to dominate future purchases.
This early buying strategy helps companies hedge against future allowance shortages. It also reduces the risk of penalties once compliance rules take effect.
Japan’s Carbon Credits: Demand Soars Ahead of Mandatory GX-ETS
Japan’s carbon credit market is expanding fast. It was valued at about $28.2 billion in fiscal 2023 and could reach more than $121 billion by 2031, growing at roughly 20% annually.
Trading on the TSE began in 2023 and focuses on GX credits, including:
- J-Credits from domestic renewable and efficiency projects
- JCM credits from international projects under Japan’s Joint Crediting Mechanism
However, demand already exceeds supply. J-Credit issuance averages around 1 million tonnes per year. Analysts expect demand to reach about 3 million tonnes annually once the mandatory phase begins.
Therefore, limited supply could push prices higher and increase compliance costs for heavy emitters.
Carbon Credit Prices and Market Dynamics
Bloomberg also highlighted that carbon credit prices on the TSE have fluctuated as the market matures. Renewable electricity credits peaked at about ¥6,600 per tonne in early 2025. Since then, prices have fallen by nearly 25%.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has proposed a price ceiling of ¥4,300 per tonne for the compliance market. Renewable-linked credits still trade above that level, reflecting strong demand and limited supply. And the prices across voluntary credit categories are converging ahead of the mandatory phase. This trend suggests growing liquidity and market confidence.

Challenges Facing the GX-ETS
Despite strong momentum, several challenges remain. Limited credit supply could push prices higher if demand grows faster than new issuances. Credit quality also poses a risk, as regulators must ensure offsets deliver real and permanent emissions reductions to avoid greenwashing.
At the same time, Japan still depends heavily on coal, gas, and oil, meaning carbon trading alone cannot transform the energy system. Transport emissions also remain a major hurdle, especially in the road and aviation sectors, where decarbonization is progressing slowly.
Past regional trading systems, such as Tokyo’s cap-and-trade program, achieved emissions reductions of around 15% to 27%. However, scaling that success nationwide will require strict enforcement, transparent monitoring, and strong policy support.
Strategic Role of Carbon Credits in Japan’s Transition
For hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and power, carbon credits provide a temporary bridge while low-carbon technologies mature. Companies can offset a small share of emissions while investing in hydrogen, electrification, and carbon capture.
Early purchases also hedge against future price spikes. If allowance supply tightens, companies holding credits will face lower compliance costs.
Globally, Japan wants J-Credits to align with international carbon markets and potential EU carbon border rules. This strategy could strengthen Japan’s role in Article 6 carbon trading frameworks.
In conclusion, the surge in carbon credit buying shows Japanese companies are taking the GX-ETS seriously. The market is transitioning from a voluntary pilot to a compliance-driven system that will shape corporate strategies for decades.
As climate pressures mount, Japan must close the gap between current policies and its 2030 target. The GX-ETS could become one of the country’s most powerful tools to drive emissions cuts, attract investment, and accelerate clean energy deployment.
However, success depends on credit supply, price stability, and strong governance. Industry analysts and experts suggest early credit buying reflects corporate hedging strategies as Japan’s carbon market moves toward full compliance.
If Japan manages these challenges, the GX-ETS could transform its carbon market and set a model for other Asian economies.
The post Japan’s GX-ETS Sparks Carbon Credit Surge as Major Polluters Prep for Compliance appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Meta Strikes 80 MW Solar Deal to Power Data Centers and Cut Carbon Impact
Meta Platforms Inc., the owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, has signed a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) with renewable energy developer MN8 Energy LLC. Under the deal, the tech giant will buy 100% of the electricity generated by MN8’s 80 megawatt (MW) Walker Solar Project in Juniata County, Pennsylvania. The agreement marks the first direct clean-energy contract between the two companies.
Meta will use solar power to help supply electricity to its data centers in the United States. The project is scheduled to begin operations by the end of 2026.
The Walker Solar project will supply power to the PJM Interconnection grid. This grid is the biggest wholesale electricity market in the U.S. It serves over 65 million people in 13 states and Washington, D.C.
Urvi Parekh, Director of Global Energy at Meta, said:
“We are thrilled to partner with MN8 Energy to bring new renewable energy to Pennsylvania and help support our operations with 100% clean energy.”
Inside the 80 MW Walker Solar Deal
The solar facility will generate about 80 MW of clean electricity when complete. Under the PPA, Meta will acquire all of the project’s output.
The agreement is a long-term contract. Meta will buy renewable power from MN8 Energy for years. This will help meet part of its data center electricity demand with clean energy.
MN8 Energy, a New York-based renewable energy and battery storage company, will develop and build the solar plant. It has about 4 GW of operational and under-construction solar projects nationwide. The company also operates 1.1 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery capacity and over 40 high-power EV charging stations in the U.S.
The Walker Solar project will supply energy to the regional grid and create local jobs during construction. It will also generate tax revenue for Juniata County and strengthen local energy infrastructure.
Powering AI Growth With Long-Term Solar
Meta has set a clear long-term climate goal. The company aims to reach net-zero emissions across its full value chain by 2030. This includes direct operations and supply chain emissions.
The tech giant has matched 100% of its global electricity use with clean and renewable energy since 2020. This covers its offices and data centers. To support this goal, Meta has helped add nearly 29 gigawatts (GW) of new clean energy capacity to power grids worldwide.

Since 2021, Meta reports that its renewable energy procurement has helped reduce emissions by 23.8 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e). These reductions come from large-scale wind and solar projects tied to long-term power purchase agreements.
However, electricity demand continues to grow. Meta’s data centers are expanding to support artificial intelligence and digital services. The company notes that rising data center demand makes decarbonization more complex, even as renewable energy use increases.
Meta aims to go further. It wants to reach net zero across its full value chain by 2030. This means not only its own operations (Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions) but also the emissions tied to its suppliers, hardware, and products (Scope 3). Scope 3 emissions, which are about 8.15 million metric tons of CO2e, account for 99% of its total carbon footprint.

As of its latest report, 48% of its suppliers — based on emissions contribution — have set science-aligned emissions reduction targets. These supplier commitments are critical because Scope 3 emissions make up a large share of Meta’s total carbon footprint.
- The company has also set a goal to reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 42% by 2031, using 2021 as a baseline year.
Meta’s sustainability reports also show that electricity use remains central to its climate strategy. Since using 100% renewable energy in operations, Meta has helped avoid millions of tons of CO₂ emissions.
Beyond Carbon Emissions: Biggest Clean Energy Buyer
Beyond carbon reductions, Meta includes water and biodiversity in its ESG strategy. Since 2017, Meta has supported more than 40 water restoration projects.
In 2024 alone, these projects helped restore over 1.6 billion gallons of water in regions facing high or medium water stress. The company has committed to becoming water positive by 2030, meaning it plans to restore more water than it consumes.
The Facebook owner also supports biodiversity near its facilities. It has allocated more than 4,000 acres of land, over half of its owned data center campus footprint, for habitat protection and restoration using native species.

In addition, Meta invests in voluntary carbon removal. The company funds projects designed to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to address emissions that are difficult to eliminate. It also works with industry groups and government initiatives to help scale high-quality carbon removal markets.
A recent BloombergNEF report highlights Meta’s role in large-scale corporate clean energy procurement. The tech company was the biggest corporate clean energy buyer in 2025. They signed over 10 GW in power purchase agreements (PPAs).

It also found that Meta and its peers, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, accounted for nearly half of all corporate clean energy deals last year. This demonstrates Meta’s influence in driving new renewable capacity online.
These efforts show Meta is combining financial power with sustainability action. The Walker Solar PPA helps the tech giant meet the fast-growing electricity needs from its data centers and AI workloads. Data centers use a lot of power. Using renewables can help meet this demand and reduce carbon emissions from grid electricity.
New Solar Capacity Strengthens the PJM Grid
The solar project will deliver clean power into the PJM Interconnection market. PJM coordinates electricity flow across a broad region of the U.S. and manages one of the most complex power systems in North America.
Adding new generation capacity like Walker Solar contributes to grid resilience and supports broader decarbonization goals. Solar generation helps offset older fossil-fuel plants as they retire or reduce output.
Experts say utility-scale solar is key. As more sectors electrify, the demand for electricity keeps rising. More solar capacity means steady, low-carbon energy when the sun is out, which helps reduce overall system emissions.
The Walker Solar project is part of a larger trend in U.S. solar growth. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says 2026 will bring a record increase in utility-scale solar capacity. Over 40 GW is set to be added, marking a big jump from previous years.

Big Tech’s Expanding PPA Playbook
Meta’s solar PPA with MN8 reflects a broader trend in corporate renewable procurement. Many large technology companies have signed long-term deals to secure clean electricity for their operations.
Beyond Meta, firms like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft also regularly enter into PPAs for new solar and wind projects. These companies made up almost half of all corporate clean energy deals in 2025, based on market analysis.
Long-term solar PPAs give companies a way to lock in clean power at predictable costs. They also help developers secure financing for new projects, since a contracted buyer reduces risk for lenders and investors.
These corporate procurement strategies go beyond purchasing renewable energy certificates (RECs). They involve direct contracts tied to specific solar or wind projects. This practice supports actual builds of new clean capacity rather than shifting existing output on paper.
The Next Wave of Data Center Decarbonization
The Meta–MN8 Energy solar agreement highlights a shift in how major tech companies meet their clean energy goals. Long-term PPAs like this one are becoming a key tool for corporate decarbonization.
Analysts believe major data center operators will keep growing their PPA portfolios. This is due to increased electricity demand and investor expectations for ESG. This trend could help accelerate the broader deployment of solar and wind generation across the U.S. power system.
As the landscape changes, data center operators and renewable developers may look into hybrid solutions, which could mix solar power with battery storage, microgrids, and demand response systems. This approach aims to provide reliable, low-carbon power all day long.
- READ MORE: Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft Dominate Clean Energy Deals as Global Buying Slips in 2025
The post Meta Strikes 80 MW Solar Deal to Power Data Centers and Cut Carbon Impact appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
LEGO Expands Carbon Removal Portfolio with $2.8M Investment for Net-Zero Goals
The LEGO Group announced a new investment of DKK 18 million, or about $2.8 million, into carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects. This funding adds to an earlier DKK 19 million, or about $2.6 million, commitment made in February 2025. These two amounts are separate. They support different groups of projects under LEGO’s expanding carbon removal portfolio.
LEGO has now invested about DKK 54 million, or $8–8.5 million, in carbon removal initiatives across eight projects. The company says these investments help it reach its goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The toymaker emphasizes that it prioritizes cutting emissions within its own operations and supply chain first. It views carbon removal as a complementary tool for emissions that are difficult to eliminate.
Annette Stube, Chief Sustainability Officer at the LEGO Group, said:
“This purchase highlights our commitment to testing a broad range of credible pathways for nature and tech-based carbon removal. As the programme expands, it is helping to strengthen our understanding of different approaches and inform future decision-making on how carbon removal may complement our wider climate goals. While reducing emissions in our own operations remains our priority, this programme allows us to work with expert partners and contribute to solutions that may help scale effective climate action over time.”
Climate Experts Driving LEGO’s Carbon Removal
LEGO works with two specialist partners: Climate Impact Partners and ClimeFi.
Climate Impact Partners helps design and deliver nature-based carbon removal projects. ClimeFi focuses on engineered and technology-based removal solutions. These partnerships allow LEGO to support a mix of short-term and long-term carbon storage pathways.
The 2025 investment supports four projects, including biochar, enhanced rock weathering, and reforestation. The 2026 investment supports four additional projects. Together, they form a diversified carbon removal portfolio.
Nature-Based Carbon Removal: Forest Restoration in Mexico
One of the four new projects funded by the 2026 investment is a big reforestation effort in Quintana Roo State, Mexico. This project:
- Restores more than 14,000 hectares of degraded tropical forests.
- Includes native tree planting, species recovery, fire prevention, and community forest management.
- Allocates over 20% of the budget to local job creation and income generation.
- Bringing biodiversity benefits and supporting ecosystems for native wildlife.
This initiative is delivered through Climate Impact Partners in collaboration with Canopia Carbon. It adds to LEGO’s earlier help for reforestation in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (USA). These forest projects remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as trees grow and store it in biomass and soil.
Nature-based removal projects often provide co-benefits. These include biodiversity protection, watershed improvements, and community income. However, they can face risks such as fire or land-use change. Long-term monitoring and strong governance are, therefore, critical.

Engineered Carbon Removal Technologies: From Biomass to Marine CDR
The other three 2026 projects involve emerging CDR technologies managed by ClimeFi:
- Biomass Geological Storage: Uses slurry injection to store carbon-rich organic waste deep underground.
- Mineralization: Transforms CO₂ into manufactured limestone using reactive waste materials that can serve as building inputs.
- Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal: Enhances wastewater alkalinity to remove CO₂ and store it durably in ocean water.
LEGO invests in various pathways to gain hands-on experience with new solutions. These approaches have different durability profiles. This means they store CO₂ for different lengths of time and may also scale in various ways.
Engineered carbon removal often offers higher durability than many nature-based solutions. In some cases, storage can last hundreds to thousands of years. However, these technologies are still developing and can be expensive in the early stages.
LEGO chooses to try various pathways to understand costs, scalability, durability, and verification standards in the carbon removal market. It also aligns with its net-zero goals.
Net-Zero in Motion: LEGO’s Dual Approach to Emissions
The LEGO Group has committed to a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target by 2050. This target covers its full value chain, including Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions. LEGO’s near-term targets are validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).
The toymaker has committed to reducing absolute Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 37% by 2032 from a 2019 baseline. It also aims to reduce absolute Scope 3 emissions by 37% within the same timeframe. These targets align with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

LEGO’s FY2024 Sustainability Statement says the company’s greenhouse gas emissions were around 1.7 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e).
While the statement does not yet include a full breakdown of emissions for that year, the most recent publicly disclosed data (for 2023) show that LEGO’s total emissions were about 1.82 million tCO₂ equivalent. In that year:
- Scope 1 (direct emissions) were approximately 23,403 tCO₂e.
- Scope 2 (purchased energy) was very low — effectively 1 tCO₂e when using market‑based accounting due to renewable energy matching.
- Scope 3 (value chain emissions) accounted for about 1.80 million tCO₂e, representing roughly 99 % of total emissions.
The dominance of Scope 3 is consistent with LEGO’s industry profile:
Most emissions arise from materials, manufacturing by suppliers, transport, and end‑of‑life impacts, rather than from the company’s own direct operations. Scope 1 and 2 emissions accounted for roughly 1% of total emissions.
LEGO says it uses 100% renewable electricity for its operations. This comes from on-site solar panels and renewable energy certificates. The company first matched 100% of its electricity use with renewable energy generation in 2017.
In 2024, LEGO also reported progress in sustainable materials purchasing, which indirectly contributes to reduced emissions. About 47 % of the materials purchased to make LEGO elements were certified via mass balance principles. This translates to an estimated average of 33 % renewable sources in raw materials.
Half of all purchased materials were produced with sustainable sources. The same goes for its packaging materials, where 93% were from paper.

LEGO recognises that carbon removal projects are not a substitute for reducing emissions. They see CDR as a helpful tool. It targets emissions that are tough to fully eliminate.
Investing in both nature-based and technology-based removals allows the company to:
- Understand emerging solutions.
- Gain practical insight into quality, cost, and permanence.
- Build relationships with expert partners.
- Support broader climate goals beyond its own footprint.
LEGO’s climate disclosures stress that the company prioritizes operational cuts first. The company engages suppliers. It uses low-carbon materials and boosts energy efficiency. It also expands renewable energy in its value chain.
The company uses its CDR portfolio to guide future decisions, which helps scale effective climate action while focusing on reducing emissions. Their main goal is to achieve net zero by 2050.
Carbon Removal in Corporate Net-Zero Strategies
Carbon dioxide removal is becoming more important in corporate climate strategies. McKinsey & Company says that by mid-century, the world may need billions of tons of carbon removal each year to reach net-zero.
McKinsey estimates that the CDR market could grow to between $40 billion and $80 billion per year by 2030. By 2050, the market could reach $300 billion to $1.2 trillion annually if scaled to climate targets.

Many climate models show that even aggressive emission cuts may leave 10% to 20% of emissions hard to eliminate. Carbon removal can help address these residual emissions.
Corporate demand plays a key role in building supply. Early buyers send price and volume signals that support project financing. Frontier and other groups have promised to spend hundreds of millions on future carbon removal credits. Members include major technology and consulting firms such as Google, McKinsey, and H&M Group.
Despite growth, current global carbon removal capacity remains far below what climate science suggests is needed. High-quality projects require strong measurement, reporting, and verification systems. Standards continue to evolve across voluntary carbon marke.
Learning and Leading: LEGO’s Early-Mover Advantage in CDR
LEGO’s total DKK 54 million commitment represents a learning strategy as much as a climate contribution. The company gains experience in evaluating project quality, permanence, and social impact. It also builds relationships in a fast-developing sector.
The company’s approach reflects a broader shift among multinational firms. Many now test different removal methods while continuing to reduce direct emissions. This dual strategy helps companies prepare for future regulatory frameworks and stakeholder expectations.
As the global carbon removal market expands, early investments like these help improve project standards, scale innovation, and attract more capital. The sector still faces cost and scalability challenges. But corporate participation provides one pathway to accelerate development.
LEGO’s CDR investments show a steady expansion of the company’s carbon removal portfolio. They also reveal how major consumer brands are integrating carbon removal into long-term climate strategies while continuing to prioritize emissions reduction.
- READ MORE: The Carbon Credit Market in 2025 is A Turning Point: What Comes Next for 2026 and Beyond?
The post LEGO Expands Carbon Removal Portfolio with $2.8M Investment for Net-Zero Goals appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Copper Prices Surge Above $13,000: Best Copper Stocks to Watch in 2026
Copper has re-entered the spotlight. Prices on the London Metal Exchange surged to a record $14,527.50 per metric ton on January 29 and continue to hover above $13,000. That rally did not happen by chance. Instead, it reflects a powerful mix of AI-driven demand, tight global supply, and rising geopolitical risk.
Today, copper sits at the center of the electrification and digital revolution. From AI data centers and electric vehicles to renewable power grids and defense systems, the red metal powers it all. As a result, investors, miners, and manufacturers are repositioning for what many now call a structural copper deficit.

AI and Electrification Are Redefining Copper Demand
The global critical minerals market is entering a new phase. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the sector could grow two to three times by 2040. That expansion may require between $500 billion and $600 billion in new capital investment.
Electric vehicles need roughly four times more copper than traditional combustion cars. Wind turbines and solar farms require vast cabling networks. Meanwhile, grid upgrades demand heavy copper wiring to handle rising electricity loads.
AI-powered hyperscale data centers consume enormous amounts of copper for power distribution, cooling systems, and grounding infrastructure. A single large AI facility can require up to 50,000 metric tons of copper. That is three to four times more than a conventional data center.
J.P. Morgan estimates that copper demand from data centers alone could reach around 475,000 metric tons in 2026. That represents an annual increase of about 110,000 tons.
- S&P Global study projects that global copper demand will grow from 28 million metric tons a year in 2025 to 42 million metric tons by 2040 – an increase of 50% above current levels.

Major tech players are already securing supply. In January, Amazon Web Services signed a two-year agreement with Rio Tinto to purchase domestically produced copper from an Arizona mine. The deal marked one of the first direct links between low-carbon copper and AI infrastructure development.
Deficit or Surplus? Analysts Clash Over Copper’s Outlook
While demand accelerates, supply struggles to keep pace. Analysts now describe copper’s imbalance as structural rather than cyclical. J.P. Morgan projects a refined copper shortfall of roughly 330,000 metric tons in 2026.
Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects the market to shift to a 150,000-ton deficit after previously forecasting a surplus of 209,000 tons.

Even Goldman Sachs recently called copper the commodity with the highest growth potential this year, labeling it a “core target of the AI and electrification supercycle.” It projected that the copper market would record a surplus of around 160,000 metric tons this year. As a result, supply and demand are moving closer to balance. Given this outlook, the bank does not expect the global copper market to slip into a sustained shortage anytime soon.
Mining projects face permitting delays, rising capital costs, and operational disruptions. Ore grades are declining at several mature mines. Political tensions in key producing regions have also added uncertainty.
For example, Freeport-McMoRan continues working to restore full operations at its massive Grasberg complex. The company expects production to ramp up in the second quarter of 2026, with about 85% of operations restored by the second half of the year. However, full recovery across all mining zones may not happen until 2027.
Freeport’s new smelter also remains on standby after a previous fire, though management expects concentrate intake to resume later in 2026. These challenges illustrate a broader trend: supply is not flexible enough to respond quickly to demand shocks.
US Inventories Surge, But Global Tightness Persists
Interestingly, the United States experienced a sharp rise in refined copper imports during 2025.
As per the latest reports, after the White House postponed its decision on tariffs, the price gap between U.S. copper traded on the CME and copper traded on the LME quickly narrowed. As a result, the trading opportunity disappeared for a short time. However, copper imports into the U.S. soon picked up again.
In December alone, nearly 200,000 metric tons entered the U.S. market. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), total U.S. refined copper imports reached 1.4 million tons in 2025. That marked a year-on-year increase of 730,000 tons.
Similarly, according to Benchmark, earlier in 2025, the price gap between U.S. and global copper prices rose to nearly $3,000 per ton. That large difference pulled huge volumes of copper into the country.
It estimates that more than 730 kt of copper is effectively “trapped” in the U.S. This surge created a sizeable inventory build inside the country.

Yet, global supply remains tight. Much of the imported metal reflects precautionary stockpiling and strategic positioning rather than structural oversupply. Outside North America, deficits still loom large.
Therefore, while U.S. warehouses appear full, the broader market remains stretched.
Best Copper Stocks to Watch as the Deficit Deepens
With prices elevated and deficits emerging, mining companies are scaling up investments. Selective producers with strong balance sheets and operations in stable jurisdictions may benefit most if copper prices reaccelerate. In this global outlook, Canadian and allied-country producers enjoy added appeal.
For instance:
Teck Resources
The miner reiterated 2026 production guidance of between 455,000 and 530,000 tonnes. The company continues ramping up the Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 project in Chile, with peak capital spending nearing $2 billion. A proposed merger with Anglo American could create one of the world’s top five copper producers.
Hudbay Minerals
It reported record revenue and EBITDA in 2025. The company doubled its quarterly dividend and increased 2026 capital spending to support both sustaining operations and growth initiatives, including the Copper World project in Arizona.
Lundin Mining
Similarly, Lundin Mining delivered record revenue of $4.1 billion in 2025. Copper production reached over 331,000 tonnes at competitive cash costs. The company expects output to remain stable in 2026, while continuing to advance development projects across its portfolio.
Developers also see opportunity. Capstone Copper projects 2026 production between 200,000 and 230,000 tonnes. It plans significant sustaining and exploration investments to strengthen long-term growth. In addition, North American manufacturers are expanding. Revere Copper Products secured a $207.5 million credit facility in January to fund capacity expansion tied to electrification and data center demand.
So it’s clearly the industry is preparing for sustained strength.
Can Prices Stay Above $13,000?
The key question now is sustainability. A Reuters poll of 31 analysts published January 29 placed the median 2026 copper price forecast at $11,975 per ton. That figure sits well below recent peaks, yet it represents the highest consensus forecast ever recorded.
In other words, even cautious analysts expect historically strong pricing.
In conclusion, copper’s surge above $14,000 per ton signals more than a short-term rally. It reflects a big structural change. AI data centers, electrification, and energy transition projects are rewriting demand projections. At the same time, supply growth struggles under operational, political, and financial constraints.
Although price volatility will likely persist, the broader setup remains supportive. Producers with low costs, strong balance sheets, and exposure to stable jurisdictions may offer strategic advantages in this new cycle.
In many ways, copper has become the backbone of the AI and clean energy economy. And if current trends continue, the red metal’s supercycle may only be getting started.
READ MORE:
- Rio Tinto’s FY25 Profit Falls 14%, but Copper Projects and Sustainability Efforts Stand Out
- Copper Drives BHP’s $6.2B Profit Surge in FY26 Half-Year Results
The post Copper Prices Surge Above $13,000: Best Copper Stocks to Watch in 2026 appeared first on Carbon Credits.
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