Published

2 years ago

March 7, 2024

Alice Rush

Weather Guard Lightning Tech

Inside Power Curve Testing with ArcVera Renewables

Allen and Joel discuss power curve testing with John Bosche, co-founder of ArcVera Renewables and member of the IEC technical committee that sets the global 61400-12-1 standard. He breaks down the nitty-gritty details and complex requirements for accurately measuring a wind turbine’s all-important power performance. Visit https://www.arcvera.com/

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Allen Hall: Welcome to the special edition of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall, along with co host, Joel Saxum. A wind turbine’s power curve is key to a revenue generating wind farm. We have not discussed power curve measurements on the podcast before, even though we do. Run across them all the time.

And we thought it was due time to bring in an expert. And our guest today is John Bosch, co founder and president of ArcVera Renewables, who represents the U S and as an expert on the IEC tech committee, which maintains the IEC 61400 12 1 standard for power performance testing, John also participates on the IEC.

Tech advisory group that votes on us positions regarding all standards and John has spent a long career in the wind industry. He’s worked in wind since 1990 and. Back in 2001, he founded Chinook Wind up in Washington State, and Chinook merged with VBAR Greg Poulos, in 2017 to form ArcVera Renewables that everybody knows.

John, welcome to the program.

John Bosche: Hey, thanks, Allen. Thanks, Joel. It’s good to be here with you today.

Allen Hall: So we’re trying to understand the power curve. So we talk about it all the time, but we’ve never been involved in a measurement of it. And I know when we travel around and go visit wind sites, everybody just assumes that, Oh, a power curve is this, and there’s a plot and we get it from GE or Vestas, whoever we get it from.

And here’s this magical thing. And all our lives depend on it and that the wind turbines are producing this amount of power with that amount of wind. But how is, I would like to learn, like, how is that created and how is that validated? Because those are two things I just don’t understand yet.

John Bosche: The power curve in some ways really is the most important part of the power curve.

It’s what at ArcVera, we say the arc in arc vera is connecting the meteorology part, which is what Greg does to the the power curve, which turns that meteorology into energy. And and I, not just the power curve, but the machinery in general, so the power curve really is that important bridge of, converting the wind into.

Into energy. It edits. At its heart, it’s a very simple concept. At a given wind speed, there’s a certain amount of power you expect and, at different, at the next higher wind speed, it’s a little more power and up until you hit rated power. It’s, you could say it’s equivalent to the EPA mileage when you buy a car you expect it’s going to get whatever 36 miles to the gallon or something.

And of course then your mileage may vary and there’s never a guarantee or a warranty on the mileage with the car. With wind turbines, you do get a warranty from the turbine vendor. They guarantee the power curve. But in order to enforce that guarantee, you have to actually go measure the power curve.

If you don’t measure it, then it’s just deemed that the wind turbine meets that power curve. And if you’re disappointed later down the road, five years or something. You’re just out of luck because you didn’t measure the power curve. So that’s the reason why companies often often measure, measure, spend the money to measure a power curve.

Joel Saxum: Let’s talk on this one. So now this brings to something to mind and it will show a lot of people something. And this is one I, we talked about with another expert in the field the other day and they said, XYZ turbine company makes like. 200 different variants. When we say a Vesta’s V100, everybody assumes it’s the Vesta’s V100.

However, for different wind resource locations, different blades, so this is why you see different turbines that may be the same model, but they have shorter blades, or longer blades, or different model blade and they’re rated for different wind speeds, but it’s the same nacelle type, but in a different area.

So there, you could have a a GE15, but that GE15 may have. 10 different iterations of it based on, are you in a high wind speed, are you in a low wind speed, are you in turbulent winds, are you this or that and that changes the power curve for every one of those. It would be like you said the car thing, right?

It would be like if you had a certain model of car with a different, different motor in it, or different tires on it, or different arrow on it, or something of that sort. Each one of those, will each one of those sub models have a different type of power curve? And you test against that?

John Bosche: Yes and no. For a given wind turbine model, there’s generally a power curve though there will be multiple power curves for different air densities. There also are different power curves for different operating modes, for example low noise mode, or maybe a load reduction mode.

But those are usually special cases. Generally, for a given turbine model and a given air density, there’s just one, one power curve. The one exception is GE does publish low, medium, and high turbulence power curves. And so you want to make sure you’re using the correct turbulence value in the, in selecting the power curve.

Normally, as you say, if you change the rated power or extend the blades a little bit, that usually results in a new turbine model. That has to be recertified with a new type certificate and a new power curve. For example, the GE, you mentioned the GE 1. 5, it also was available as a GE 1. 6. That was officially a different turbine model than the GE 1. 5. And then it became a GE 1. 7 and, et cetera. And so those are, those iterations are generally considered a new turbine model with some minor variation, you can maybe. have a small change in rated power without requiring a new certification.

One thing that will vary on a wind turbine is maybe the supplier of the blades. So maybe a GE turbine can have TPI blades or LM blades and those blades have different aerodynamic properties. So The turbine actually performs slightly different with those two different blades, but GE doesn’t publish they don’t publish a TPI power curve and an LM power curve, it’s just one power curve.

And that is that is a little sometimes it seems like they, there should maybe be two different power curves, but. They have to, pick a power curve that maybe goes down the middle between those two blades, or hopefully the two blades perform approximately similarly.

Allen Hall: I didn’t know that!

Okay, so that’s fascinating.

Joel Saxum: Okay, so let’s go baseline here. Let’s go I just installed a wind farm. We’ve commissioned date, it’s February 14th, Valentine’s Day 2024. I’m calling you guys to make sure that it’s correct. What is the process? How does it work?

John Bosche: The first thing you have to do is evaluate the terrain.

So if the terrain is flat, and there’s a mathematical description of flat terrain, and it’s way flatter than you would think if you have a little, gully through the site for, rain runoff, that can change it from flat terrain to not flat terrain.

And but you, so there’s a mathematical formula that’s prescribed in the IEC standard. You just evaluate the terrain. If it’s flat terrain then that’s a much simpler procedure. If it’s not flat terrain, if it’s considered complex, you have to actually start maybe six months or a year before the wind turbines ever get installed.

And you install a temporary met tower at the location where the turbine will be and a permanent met tower that’s upwind, a bit upwind of either upwind or off to the side, generally two between two to four rotor diameters away from the turbine location, and you collect data from those two towers for a period of time.

And then you can create kind of wind speed ratios between the Met Tower location and the turbine location. Then when you’ve removed the temporary tower and put the turbine in, you can adjust the wind speed from the permanent tower to reflect the wind speed conditions at the wind turbine location.

So that’s called a site calibration. Once you’ve done the site calibration, or in the case of flat terrain, you don’t have to do a site calibration. So you have this permanent met tower that’s upwind of the turbine again, two to four rotor diameters. And then you collect data from that tower simultaneously with collecting power data from the wind turbine and you’ve been the wind speed and the power data and that do some density corrections and some filtering.

And that creates the power curve. It’s a very simple process except that there are a thousand details that can, that have to be attended to carefully. So The type of anemometer you use is important. It has to be calibrated the, all of the calibration, not only all of the sensors, temperature, pressure, everything have to be calibrated.

Not only calibrated, but they have to be an IEC 17025 calibration, which you don’t always automatically get when you buy sensors. You have to ask for that specifically, and then how they’re actually mounted on the tower their requirements, how long the boom has to be. Diameter of the boom and the, distance of the anemometer from the boom.

The height, the height has to be within plus or minus 2 percent of the hub height and, then same thing with the power measurement equipment, there are requirements for calibration and accuracy of those sensors and so yeah, there’s as I say, there, it’s the reason why there are, there, there’s a standard that’s 300 pages long or whatever it is cause there are a lot of details to attend to.

Joel Saxum: Your use cases for you guys.

Okay. ArcVera gets a phone call. Is it usually always we’re looking to develop this wind farm? Yeah. Can you get involved in that, that basically pre feed stage or what is it? What is your business? What does the business look like when you get engaged from an operator?

John Bosche: Yeah, it can be a, and of course we do much more than just power curve testing.

So often our engagement starts with the wind resource assessment, which might be years before the project gets built. We might work on the independent engineering report for the project. Maybe the project changes hands somewhere along the way, we might do some due diligence. You never know where our involvement picks up.

Sometimes it picks up at the time when the power curve is done. There might be a power curve RFP that’s sent out by a developer, and we respond to that and get selected to do the power curve measurement. It’s a variety of when we get involved.

Joel Saxum: Okay, so the next question I have for you, and this is going in a different direction.

You’re a part of on, you’re on that IEC standard. That has to deal with power curve testing and power curve items in general. I’ve seen power curves used as basically investigative tools for turbine failures, for blade failures, for rotating equipment failures. Do you guys get involved in that side of things and, or have you ever had an operator come to you and say, Hey, we got 100 turbines out here’s a bunch of SCADA data, can you tell us where we can do things to optimize, which ones are not running well, which ones are, is that a thing you guys do too?

John Bosche: Sure, we do that a lot, we’ll do, we call it an operational assessment, so we look at how a wind farm is operating, and all of the, generally when we’re involved in that, it might be a, an underperforming wind farm, so we’ll look at the power curves, we look at all of the individual power curves for, All of the turbines on the site, generally using the cell anemometers looking for kind of outlier turbines, and we can calculate the weight loss for the project and, um.

See if that matches how that matches up with the Pre construction estimate for the weight loss. We can look at, project availability. We can look at electrical losses. There’s. There, there are, a dozen or so different components that may add up to that overall underperformance of the project when it comes to if there are component failures occurring we do that as well.

So that would be a root cause analysis and we we often do we definitely look at SCADA data as part of that root cause analysis, whether we would look at the power curve specifically, maybe we wouldn’t sometimes for example, a loop. A turbine overperforms its power curve.

It’s a, a three megawatt turbine, but it’s producing power up to 3. 3 megawatts or something. So that can add extra loads to the blades and, the yaw system, everything. And so that might, that could be a source of of root cause for the failure. Usually not, but it could be.

We also see that weird things like often wind turbines have wind sector management, so they have to shut down during certain wind conditions when the wind is from a certain direction and a certain wind speed, and those parameters often get entered incorrectly, or perhaps they were originally entered correctly, and then later during maintenance, they get re entered incorrectly, so now the turbine is shutting down From a wind direction that it doesn’t need to shut down, but it doesn’t shut down from the direction it does need to.

And so that first of all hurts production, but also can lead to, a lot of damage from the wake induced turbulence of the neighboring turbines.

Allen Hall: And all these power curve measurements and all the wake measurements, what are we talking about in terms of percentages here? Like, how accurate is the power curve measurement?

Is it plus or minus 1%, 5%? And where does it fit into all the discussion about lost energy?

John Bosche: Probably the 5 percent is pretty close. And it depends on several things, the terrain, how close the Met tower is to the turbine, et cetera. So that range is maybe three to 7 percent for the uncertainty on the overall power curve test.

And one thing that’s interesting most I don’t know if I’d say most, certainly many warranties are written where. The power curve guarantee is the published power curve minus the uncertainty of that test. If there’s say a 5 percent uncertainty, they’re really guaranteeing 95 percent of the power curve.

Many wind farm developers and owners are using this decide not to do a power curve test because it’s pretty unusual to see a wind turbine underperformed by more than 5%. So you might see more commonly, 1 or 2 percent underperformance that doesn’t lead to a warranty claim and they decide, because of this Because of this 5 percent allowance, it’s not worth their money and the effort to test the power curve.

On the other hand, um, sometimes they do underperform by more than 5%. And it’s usually, it’s often, developers who’ve been burned in the past with underperforming turbines that choose to spend the time and effort and money to do the power curve test. The other reason they do it is if generally it’s, it would be the tax equity investors that.

Make, make that a requirement that they have to do a power curve test.

Joel Saxum: Yeah. The financial services sector I see as being something that you could use you guys so much in that, like the due diligence phases. Okay. So let me look at it this way in a different light. If you’re a business investor and you’re going to go buy a business, if you can see that there’s a little bit of degraded performance in the business and immediately see where you could fix it.

And you got numbers on that. That’s a win. That’s a business. I would want to buy a wind farm. I would want to buy. Oh, we can squeeze a little more performance of us because we engage shark bear. They told us what was going on out here. And now if we do a little bit of corrective maintenance and get things moving.

John Bosche: Yeah, leading edge erosion is a huge issue.

It can definitely degrade, the performance by. By many percent, in, in severe cases, I don’t know more than 10 percent reduction in performance. And okay. That needs to be taken care of on a regular basis and I’d say it’s a, it’s an, generally it’s an investment that’s well worth spending to keep the production up.

Joel Saxum: John, what is your opinion, then, being a power curve expert, on some of the solutions in, out in the wild, out in the wind industry market, of erosion and telling people what their AEP performance loss is?

John Bosche: You can measure directly the power curve and determine how much, it’s been degraded from so that’s one of the benefits of doing a baseline power curve test.

When the project is new, then you can remeasure down the road to look for degradation. You can also do actually more accurate than doing that is do a side by side. Repair the leading edges on one turbine and don’t repair the leading edges on the neighboring turbine and see how much the relative difference in performance.

That’s probably the best way to, to evaluate changes, whether it’s from vortex generators, leading edge repairs any other kind of, blade upgrades. But the other thing with leading edge erosion is not only does it degrade performance, but it also degrades the structural reliability of the blade.

And eventually, if it gets bad enough, moisture can ingress into the blades and That that creates its own problems when it freezes also potentially creates lightning, lightning issues when there’s extra moisture inside of the blade. There’s, there are a lot of good just reasons for the structural health of the blades to keep the leading edges repaired.

Joel Saxum: One of the things we always talk about leading edges go bad, aerodynamic performance suffers, creates tip, creates vortices and dirty air behind it. It’s bad for lightning as well. So like leading edge erosion is something that the world definitely needs to be TA taken care of.

John Bosche: Yeah, leading edge erosion is a whole separate topic. I’d love to talk, I can talk for hours about that, but there’s even what causes leading edge erosion is really, an interesting topic of ongoing research and it’s a, it’s really a fascinating topic, actually, in the old days, when wind farms were mostly in Palm Springs and in the ultimate past.

We thought it was blowing sand that caused the leading edge erosion. Now, it turns out it’s more, it’s water droplets actually that causes it.

Allen Hall: I was just over at the leading edge erosion conference last week at and yeah, it’s this huge topic and it all revolves around power loss and what that power loss isn’t.

I know that’s one of the questions that was a big discussion point. In fact, we spent about an hour in discussion about what is the likely losses there and what kind of range are we talking about? And I think one of the problems is that we don’t go out and really measure it. And I’m not sure why that is, but it does seem like measuring the power curve or doing side by side measurements would be a really good solution to it, to quantify it because different parts of the world have different levels of erosion and different effects.

What, how long does it usually take to do that, to do the side by side or to do a power curve measurement? Was it a six month process, a year process, a two year process to really get fine enough data?

John Bosche: In that case, you’re not doing an IEC standard power curve test. You’re doing maybe more of an informal power curve test.

And you can take as long, as little, as much or little time as you want, really. I, if you have, if you do it during the, a good wind sea, high wind season, Probably a month is enough time for collecting data to really do a, if you’re doing, for example, a side by side test during the wind season a month, I would say would be long enough.

If you really want to, fill all of the wind speed bins for the IEC standard, you probably need to allow for 3, 3 months or 4 months But but for these informal tests, you don’t, you’re not required to fill all of the bins and meet all of the IEC requirements.

Allen Hall: What’s the error bars on those kind of tests?

Because I hear the side by side tests of just from power curve discussions and adding a VG or something of that sort to blades and they try to do side by side. Using SCADA data, really rough data. It doesn’t seem it’s all that accurate. If you’re looking for a percent or two, those, isn’t that sort of hard to find?

And do you need to do an IEC type of measurement to really get the resolution that you need to determine if that condition works?

John Bosche: Yeah. And something like evaluating VGs, again, you’re, the good thing is you’re not going for absolute accuracy. Let’s say the test is off by 3%. If it’s off by the same 3 percent before and after, then you don’t really care that much.

What you’re looking for is a relative change in performance after the bleed improvements are made.

Allen Hall: And there must be a lot of discussion at the IEC level about. These measurements, this is all about money at the end of the day and generating power. Is there a lot of discussion at the IEC committee at the moment?

And I know there’s a new revision issued about a year or so ago. What’s, where’s the IEC committee and what’s the next steps there?

John Bosche: The most recent substantive update of the IEC -12-1 was in 2017. The 2022 document, which is edition three. Doesn’t really change and change it in a substantive way.

It really just reorganizes the document and it has to do with all of the details of how you measure the wind historically have lived in that dash 12 dash 1 document. And so now there are many other standards dash 15, for example, needs to refer to wind measurements. Even, the acoustics measurements or loads measurements standards need to refer to how to measure the wind.

So instead of those standards, all referring to dash 12 dash one, that’s been pulled out, it’s in 50 dash one now. And it really is just pulling some of those details out. Into standalone documents.

Allen Hall: Yeah, we’re getting finer and finer on the measurements and there’s more and more measurements to make.

You mentioned acoustics and I was thinking the same thing. Acoustic seems to be a big player at the moment. We were just talking to an operator, an offshore wind farm. We had acoustic treatments offshore, which sounded weird. Like, why would the ocean care what the noise is? But. Yeah, there’s a lot of work going on at Acoustics.

Joel Saxum: The fishermen like to fish in peace.

Allen Hall: Clearly they do. And that’s part of that IEC spec though, like trying to standardize all these measurements is, must be, you guys must meet what, once or twice a year to, to go over these discussions.

John Bosche: Generally, IEC standards go through what’s called maintenance cycles in which, they’re updated, say from.

Version 1, Edition 1 to Edition 2, and those those update cycles can last anywhere from a year to sometimes 7 years it just depends how complicated it is and how extensive when a maintenance cycle is active, the group probably generally meets several times a year, maybe 3 4 times a year, and then in between, like right now on the -12-1, we haven’t been meeting regularly since 2017.

And we’re just about to embark on a new we have embarked now on a new maintenance cycle. So for the next couple of years, we’ll meet quarterly and and address kind of the, changes in the state of the art of how you would do power curve measurements.

Allen Hall: And What’s the latest in the state of the art?

John Bosche: So LIDAR was addressed in addition to, for ground mounted LIDAR. And then actually more recently, there was a dash 50 dash three standard. That addresses nacelle mounted LiDAR and I was also involved in that effort, and it’s actually, at the moment, it can only be used in flat terrain, again, as defined by this set of equations in the IEC standard, but it really, it, it does away with the need for a MET tower, and I think, and it seems to be quite accurate, so it’s I think it’s It’s an exciting new advancement for our industry.

Allen Hall: Yeah, we’ve seen a lot more action on the Nacelle metal lidars. And just curious where the direction was there, because it does seem like an advancement and just haven’t seen it implemented all that much.

John Bosche: An interesting thing that we’ve seen on a bunch of different power curves we’ve done at different sites and different turbine models is that despite the fact that, following the IEC standard, we adjust for air density and even can adjust for Wind shear and turbulence.

Even with those adjustments, we’ll see sometimes a very big difference in the power curve from summer to winter, sometimes 5 or 10 percent from summertime to winter time. And so it’s something for, project owners and developers to be aware of is. Actually, when you measure the curve, power curve matters as much, if not more than, the details of the measurement.

If you measure if you measure in the summer, you’re going to get a worse looking power curve. If you measure in the winter, you’re going to get a good looking power curve. There can be sometimes a game played, between the turbine vendor and the and the project owner as to when you start the test.

Joel Saxum: Yeah, it makes sense to me based on the flexibility of the blades. You’re losing power when blades flex.

Allen Hall: And the air is denser, right?

John Bosche: That’s right. The density, yeah, I hadn’t thought about the stiffness aspect. That could be a good area to investigate. My best theory is that in the summer when the air density is lower, that affects the Reynolds number of the wind flow over the blades.

And lower Reynolds number brings you closer to a stall condition. Blades often are operating near or even in stall near the root of the blade. And so it’s just a question of how much of the blade root is in a stall condition. And maybe in the summer, there’s a little bit more of the blade that’s in a stalled condition and affects the performance.

That’s my best theory.

Allen Hall: Yeah. It’s something as an operator, you wouldn’t think about all that much, but you’re right, John. That’s totally part of the power curve is right temperature, density, and as Joel pointed out, things about the turbine itself, right? We’ll make a difference in the power curve.

So it does matter. And I know there’s a lot of discussion in the industry about trying to maximize power curve and get the energy up and do all those great things. And this is why people need to call ArcVera right? They need to get ahold of you to ask these questions, to get some answers, need an expert.

John Bosche: But importantly, if the power curve is measured for sort of these winter ideal conditions, and you measure the power curve in the winter, you think everything’s fine, but half of the year, it’s the turbine could be significantly underperforming. If you didn’t account for that in the pre construction energy estimate.

Then then you can get significant underperformance just because of this seasonal variation in the power curve. And so it’s worth thinking about. And and for us, for we consultants who do the pre construction energy estimates it’s something for us to consider in our calculations.

Allen Hall: Yeah, absolutely. So how do people find out about ArcVera? How do they get ahold of you, John? Because you’re a wealth of knowledge here. Where do they go?

John Bosche: Well, arcvera.com is our website. It has lots of information and bios and white papers. And we publish monthly anomaly maps for for how, whether the wind is higher than average or lower than average for the, all of the U S and Brazil, South Africa, and India, which are other countries that we operate in.

A lot of our clients find those to be quite interesting. And if anyone wants to reach out to me, my email addresses. john.bosche@arcvera.com.

Allen Hall: John, it’s been great to have you on the program, and we need to have you back. Thanks, guys.

John Bosche: It’s been a pleasure.

Allen Hall: We’ll see you at some of the conferences coming up.

John Bosche: I’m looking forward to it.

https://weatherguardwind.com/inside-power-curve-testing-arcvera-renewables/

Renewable Energy

ORE Catapult Blade Survey, Siemens Gamesa Turns a Profit

Published

7 hours ago

August 11, 2026

Alice Rush

Weather Guard Lightning Tech

ORE Catapult Blade Survey, Siemens Gamesa Turns a Profit

ORE Catapult wants industry blade failure data, Siemens Gamesa posts its first profit since 2022, and Vattenfall sweeps Denmark’s offshore auction. Fill out the ORE Catapult survey!

The Uptime Wind Energy Podcast is brought to you by Weather Guard Lightning Tech, creators of the StrikeTape Ultra LPS retrofit. Subscribe to Uptime’s Substack newsletter. And check out Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” Youtube channel. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us!

Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall, and I’m here with Rosemary Barnes, Matthew Sted, and Yolanda Padron. And it has been a real interesting week out in the renewable land, uh, if you’ve been watching some of the news, and we’re gonna talk about a number of those stories this week.

But I wanna lead off with what ORE Catapult is doing over in the UK. So if, if you haven’t followed ORE Catapult, they are a, a research investigative arm and a huge proponent of wind, offshore wind in the United Kingdom, and they’ve done a, a tre- really tremendous amount of work in some of the, uh, particular problems that exist in wind trying to help [00:01:00] solve them.

They have a survey that’s out, and if you haven’t seen it, you can just Google ORE Catapult and put in survey, and you’ll come to either an article or get to their site. And Rosemary and Yolanda, there’s a couple of particular items that they’re asking questions about. Uh, a lot of it is asking specific questions about torsional stability of blades.

Have you seen more difficulty with torsion? Is… Do we need a torsion test? I think that was one of the questions. Uh, also looking at ranking of the different issues that happen with blades in particular. That’s what I noticed. Uh, you know, where’s lightning? Where’s blade connections? Where’s structural issues?

Where do you rank all those different things? And I, I have not seen a survey like this in quite a while. Is this something that we need to do more of? I know [00:02:00] ORE Catapult will get a huge amount of feedback, at least I hope, over in the UK and, and around Europe. I don’t think many Americans are gonna be contributing to that too much since you don’t have a lot of offshore wind.

But is this going in the right direction? Do we need more of these industry surveys about structural blade issues?

Yolanda Padron: Yeah, I think these surveys are a really good idea. Uh, the only thing that scares me from the owner side is that sometimes there’s a little bit of, uh- Teams don’t really love the idea of sharing information that might seem like it’s, um, like intellectual property to their internal teams.

Even if as an engineer, of course, you love the idea of sharing and finding out like, um, what everybody else is, is experiencing on their site. Um, and so I really hope that the teams can really look, like their internal teams can really look past that because this would be a really great tool [00:03:00] for everybody to use.

I know I looked at the survey myself and some of the questions kind of gave people the, the opportunity to kind of anonymize their data and then just kind of share it and have it. It seemed like it, it would probably be a platform that everybody could look at or everybody that, that shared could look at.

And I think that it could be really, really good for operators to be able to know kind of if what they’re seeing on site is normal and just to be able to see what they’re signing up for when there’s a new site coming in. Or if it’s a site that’s been operational for a while, you can see what’s, hopefully, what’s happening to a quite older site than yours.

So just to, to be able to be a bit more prepared, um, since a lot of these sites are from different own- owners. But I think it’s a really good idea.

Allen Hall: The survey asked questions about leading edge erosion, torsional loads, root joint integrity, lightning damage, manufacturing defects, which is a big [00:04:00] issue right now, extreme loading events, which also, uh, is, uh, coming about more often, uh, repair performance, and end of life fatigue.

So there’s a, a series of questions about that and when do you experience these items in the lifetime of a blade. Is it more towards the beginning of the operation or more towards the end? That is important to know ’cause it, how you go about managing blades depends on that. The torsional questions were more specific.

Uh, in your experience, how well understood are the effects on blade longevity of torsional loads compared to bending loads? And I think that relates back to some of the, uh, issues that have been seen on some offshore blades where there’s no existing test for torsion because it’s so hard to do. Whereas bending loads, we pretty well understand that and can do lifetime testing essentially for, for bending loads.

So the torsional one I think is gonna raise a lot of question marks to hopefully with people, and we can come up [00:05:00] with a, a better approach to that.

Yolanda Padron: Hopefully, yeah. I think this is, I mean, this is just a really good idea to if, if everybody could partake. Um, I would really love to see something similar if people could in, in onshore.

And so just something that’s, that’s shared a, uh, a little bit more widely I think would be really, really great. Uh, the only thing that might stre- or not stress me out, but- you know, I think people need to be careful about is just making sure that you’re not, um, that you actually use your data and not just kind of like, “Oh, I know that I remember this terrible lightning damage that I got in this really, really bad area, so I’m gonna mark as though most of my lightning damage happens in that bad area.”

So just, just make sure you don’t use confirmation bias for, for that, but

Matthew Stead: I can also add to it as well ’cause, um, we’ve done a fair bit of work with all Catapult over the years, um, particularly through the new IEC standard for blade O&M. Um, and, uh, [00:06:00] definitely through the new blade O&M standard, the topic of blade twist has come up multiple times.

Um- And also adding to that, you know, our organization has done twist on, twist measurements on 100 meter blades, and the twist that we measured was more than the OEM expected. Um, so I think this is a bit of a sleeper topic, um, and I think OR Catapult is doing the right thing by gathering more information.

Allen Hall: There is a l- little database that’s gonna be put together, at least looking at the questions. Question 12, and everybody hopefully will go in and, and participate in the survey, but it says, “Would you be interested in sharing redacted failure data into a industry-wide database to help inform research agenda for blade development and O&M tools and solutions?”

That is a great idea. Having a database so we understand the scale of problems and can put some numbers [00:07:00] to them, and then we can do some more research in those areas, and focus research where we’re actually gonna spend money in the right places, which has been my fight for the last five, six years, where we spend a lot of money, but not necessarily where we need to.

That’s a great question, and hopefully OR Catapult does p- put together a database.

Rosemary Barnes: Companies really, really, really struggle to provide access to their data. Like, um, it, y- yeah, it, it’s, it’s very hard to get it beyond just using for their own specific project. I’ll be, I’ll be so happy if this database gets up and becomes publicly available so that every- everybody can use it to create the solutions that the industry needs.

But I know how hard a challenge it is, so I’m wishing them heaps of, heaps of luck to get it to work.

Matthew Stead: And can I also add that, um, OR Catapult also did a wonderful presentation at Blades Europe, where they talked about life extension. They talked about the actual loading on the blades, um, influencing the fatigue life.

And so I think, you know, that excellent [00:08:00] database hopefully, as we talked about, gets fed into some of their work about life extension.

Allen Hall: Well, OR Catapult is trying to get ahead of blade failures before they cost money. Uh, our next company knows exactly what that costs. Siemens Gamesa is still climbing out of a serial defect problem, and it posted its first profit in four years.

So we’ll be back to talk about that in a moment.

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Allen Hall: Siemens Gamesa has finally turned a [00:09:00] profit, its first time since 2022. Uh, now comes the hard part. Order intake in the third quarter fell 77% from 4.89 billion euros a year ago to 1.05 billion Chief Executive Christian Bruch, uh, says a lot of the offshore projects that were originally planned are slipping, and as we’ve seen in the news, and that developers are not willing to make final investment decisions right now.

Uh, in Germany, developers are lobbying to hand 16 gigawatts of offshore sites back to the states, and, and Bruch says that the, the capacity is, is not going to be built. Onshore, uh, the relaunched 5.X platform is ramping up slowly after the serial defect shutdown, with approvals still holding some orders back.

So Siemens Gamesa is going to make a push, or [00:10:00] Omtera I guess it is called now, w- is going to make a push, uh, into the 5.X machine and continue on on the offshore side. But boy, some of these, uh, auctions and, uh, bidding processes are not great for Siemens at the moment.

Matthew Stead: I’ve got a question. Did, um, did Siemens actually stop selling for a while as well?

Is that part of their order intake loss?

Allen Hall: Some of the machines, I believe, the 4.X and the 5.X, when they had the serial defect issues, uh, they put a hold on them for a little while and, and did a complete redesign, I believe, on the blades. But other turbines I thought were still being offered for sale, and I thought I saw s- some installs in the United States going on, more on the two megawatt, three megawatt machines, uh, but n- not the bigger ones.

And, and offshore too, like it sound- does sound like the large offshore wind project in the United States, which is the coastal Virginia offshore wind project, uh, off the, you know, a couple of miles off the coast of Virginia, is [00:11:00]going a little bit slower than they thought. Uh, so maybe there’s a, a little bit to the 14.

It’s, that’s a Siemens Gamesa 14-236 direct drive machine that’s going in there. So there, there’s some still learning curves going on from what I can see, but it does seem like it’s, uh, it’s, you know, formerly Siemens Energy, there’s a huge amount of money to be had in this corporation. So if the wind division is not doing all that great, it, it’s kind of like GE Vernova.

There, there’s other ways to make money.

Matthew Stead: There’s also, I mean, I’m just wondering if there’s a bit of a blip. It’s just a short-term correction in terms of the order intake, and, you know, once they get back on track, uh, it’ll, it’ll revert again. Uh, that’s what I hope for, hope for.

Allen Hall: We’re gonna move on to Vattenfall.

Uh, there was a Danish offshore auction, and Vattenfall won both of them. And Ørsted did bid and didn’t win, and no one seems to care too much that Ørsted didn’t win. Uh, and Vattenfall, it’s, it’s a huge deal for [00:12:00] Vattenfall. So- Orsted not winning in their own backyard does seem like a problem politically

Rosemary Barnes: If Denmark wanted to have, you know, local companies winning these auctions, then they could’ve, they could’ve, uh, you know, made it for l- local companies only or tilted the playing field in their favor.

Um, so yeah, uh, I don’t know, maybe that’s the outcome that they want. If they want… It’s always like a, a tension, right? If you, you want cheap- the cheapest prices on one hand, you want local content on the other, and if you, you know, anything you do to one of those two sides affects the other. So yeah, like, in general, the more you encourage local content, then the more restrictions you place on companies to choose a cheaper supplier in every case.

Uh, Denmark is at least well-placed to have good world-class suppliers in, you know, most, most categories of the things that you need in an offshore wind [00:13:00] farm. But yeah, I mean, you see it all over the world. Uh, you know, Australia periodically tries to, uh, you know, get more local content, but it’s very, it’s very hard for us ’cause we don’t have a whole thriving ecosystem.

And so it’s like you’ve gotta pick out the one thing that you think that we could compete on and then subsidize that, and then it’s just, like, so… it’s such a weird distortion. And if companies didn’t already wanna choose that local supplier, it’s because it’s more expensive, so therefore you are necessarily adding cost.

Um, I think Taiwan d- uh, has h- experienced a lot of this with their offshore industry, right? Where they kind of s- they got really enthusiastic about local content, and everyone’s like, “Yeah, this is a great thing to do ’cause you can get local manufacturing, and you can develop a whole thriving industry But then when it comes down to it, you know, it’s not so great to have, like, whoever set up the, the system that you’ve gotta adhere to to get these projects in place, like, they’re not the experts in developing offshore [00:14:00] projects for a cheap price and on schedules, obviously.

Other- otherwise they’d be working in that, in that role. So you, uh, do end up making things really hard for the developers, and then you- they ended up with very expensive projects. And, um, because the local content, you know, like, they had what sounded, in theory at the start, like a good, um, like a good idea.

They start off with a low local content requirement and gradually ratcheted it up as the industry is supposed to mature. But what they saw was the prices just ratcheted up in parallel. Um, especially once the few things that can be competitively supplied, uh, locally, once you… That is not sufficient to y- y- you know, once the local content amount exceeds what you can achieve with those competitive industries, then yeah, you do start to see people having to spend a lot more and add a lot of project risk if you’re, y- you know, uh, going with brand new suppliers that have never, you know, never supplied a project like that before.

So I can kind of [00:15:00] understand why Denmark wouldn’t be so focused on, yeah, our local, our local company needs to win.

Matthew Stead: Yeah. Yeah, com- competition is a good thing, isn’t it? So yeah, you can’t have everyone winning all the time.

Rosemary Barnes: I think it’s such an interesting time, though, in the world where, and I’m changing my mind about this, like, yes, competition is a good thing, but if you only have competition, um, and don’t consider your country’s, you know, local competitiveness, then you end up not being able to make anything, especially when we’ve got, y- you know, in the world at the moment, there’s so much globalization, like, way more than ever before in the world’s history.

And, you know, there are countries or our country mostly, that has, you know, 50% of market share for certain things, and more for other things that people need. It’s like, so- They can obviously, just based on scale alone, can produce things at prices that no [00:16:00] one else can compete with. And then you add in that not every country is totally committed to 100% fair global playing field and, you know, there are subsidies involved and incentives and that sort of thing.

Like, you do just end up with every other country not thinking it’s economic to make anything at all. And then, yeah, I mean, everyone knows monopolies are bad, right? I don’t think that would be any different for supply chains. So I think, yeah, like we’re about to have a re-reckoning or are in the process of a re-reckoning about how much globalization is a good thing, how much free trade is a good thing, how much, you know, just letting the market take care of it is a good thing because nobody wants to end up in a situation where, you know, the whole world is dependent on one country to make absolutely everything.

Yolanda Padron: Yeah, but is it, isn’t it also kind of like a cultural thing here for Vattenfall, um, like for Dane- Denmark itself to try to be very [00:17:00]strict about the rules and if Ørsted didn’t win the bid, then they didn’t win the bid type of thing? Like, to not try to give them as much of a, of an advantage ’cause they’re still owned majorly by the Crown, right?

Allen Hall: It’s like 50% ownership by the state, right, Ørsted still.

Yolanda Padron: In general they, they have a lot of- very Danish rules of like against, you know, uh, in the US against like PACs and lobbying and stuff, and things that are very common here because it’s more culturally aligned with Denmark. Um, so I guess it, I mean, it does, it, it does make sense, right?

That they would try to separate that as much as possible to try to not have that conflict of interest.

Rosemary Barnes: I think Denmark, um, definitely wouldn’t consider themselves rule followers, ’cause if you compare them to their immediate neighbors like, um, Sweden and Germany, the Danes are like a lot more relaxed.

They have this saying in, [00:18:00] uh, Denmark that i- in, in Sweden, everything that isn’t forbidden is mandatory. That’s how they think of, of the Swedes.

Allen Hall: Wow. There’s a lot that’s not forbidden, Rosemary. You’re going into some murky waters there. Okay.

Rosemary Barnes: That’s their perception, and I think it is true relative to Sweden.

The Swede- Swedes are more rule followers. But as, um, someone that comes from a probably more relaxed country, again, yes, the Danes did really like following rules. Um, like a lot of unwritten rules as well. I remember one specific example I remember actually, uh, we had like a whole, uh, I did Danish language classes when I was there, and part of that was like a cultural education.

One of the classes was based around, uh, some of the unwritten rules in society, and one of them is it’s this date, and I don’t remember the date, but there is a certain date that if you have not trimmed your hedge by that date, that is just like y- you are not an upstanding member of society. Like, that is just like ab- absolutely not okay and like everybody that walks [00:19:00] past your house is like, “Oh my God, they haven’t trimmed their hedge yet,” and people will be talking about it and in the canteen at work.

So definitely they do like to follow the rules. But what I will say about Denmark also is that I think that they usually top the world’s list, or at least close to the top in terms of trust. Um, they trust people in general, but especially they trust government institutions. And I think that you can’t have trust in government institutions if they pick and choose, um, when they’re going to enforce the rules or not.

So I think that in that sense, yeah, of course, they’re not going to after the fact go, “Oh, this, the, oh, we had an auction, but the result wasn’t the way we liked it, so we’re gonna change it.” Like, that’s not a very trustworthy thing for a government to do. They do rely, obviously we’re a small country, they rely a lot on international trade, and so I think that they would see a big risk in, um, yeah, having their auction be anything but fully transparent and fair.

So yeah. Anyway, that’s my, my cultural interpretation based on having lived in Denmark for five years. Uh, [00:20:00] five years ago now. It’s been a while.

Allen Hall: That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy podcast. If today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Reach out to us on LinkedIn.

And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show. And don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And for Rosey, Yolanda, and Matthew, I’m Allen Hall, and we’ll see you here next week on the Uptime Wind Energy podcast.