The Earth’s jet streams play a fundamental role in the speed and direction of weather systems across the world.
This means that they are crucial for understanding extreme weather events and how they will change as the world warms.
Research suggests that upper-level jet-stream winds will accelerate on average as global temperatures rise, but little is known about how their fastest winds – known as “jet streaks” – will change.
In a first-ever study, published in Nature Climate Change, my co-author and I show that fast jet-stream winds will get faster and faster — by around 2% for every degree Celsius the world warms. This means that fast winds will speed up around 2.5 times more than average jet-stream winds.
Furthermore, it means we should anticipate record-breaking jet-stream winds as warming continues.
Our research also reveals that this acceleration occurs because the difference between the density of the air in the tropics and the air at the poles will increase.
While further work will be needed to understand the full impact of our findings, we expect that they will include stronger severe storms and an increase in clear-air turbulence for aircraft passengers.
Fast flowing
The Earth’s jet streams are fast-flowing narrow bands of wind high up in the atmosphere. The fastest jet-stream winds blow from west to east and occur in the upper troposphere, around 10-12 km above the surface.
Jet streams are important because they shape Earth’s surface climate by steering weather systems, and so they can affect where severe weather occurs. For example, the regions around fast upper-level jet-stream winds – called “jet streaks” – have been linked to the occurrence of storms, tornadoes, hail and severe winds.
Jet streams are also key for air travel, providing an ideal tailwind for aircraft. Previous research has established that the average wind speed of the upper-level jet stream increases under climate change. This has the potential knock-on effect of causing more clear-air turbulence for aircraft passengers.
Our research was inspired by reports in 2019 of transatlantic flights breaking speed records. As a result, we set out to find out how climate change will affect fast jet-stream winds.
Little is known about how fast upper-level jet-stream winds – classed as those above the 99th percentile – could change as the world warms. Furthermore, no mechanism has been proposed to explain why fast jet-stream winds would change.
Fast-get-faster response
We started by examining how physics-based climate models project fast jet-stream winds would change. We used models from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), which were developed for the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
In these model projections, we compare daily jet-stream winds that exceed the 99th percentile at the end of the 20th (1980-2000) and 21st (2080-2100) centuries under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). We also compare wind speeds for the near-term in an intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5), which is broadly in line with the trajectory of global emissions today.
Our analysis finds that climate change makes the fastest upper-level jet-stream winds get faster and faster – by about 2% for every degree Celsius the world warms. This means that fast winds will speed up around 2.5 times more than average jet-stream winds.
We refer to this as the “fast-get-faster” response and we find the effect in all seasons of the year.
You can see this in the chart below, which shows the percentage change in the fastest winds at around 12km altitude per degree of warming across different latitudes (from 80 degrees south on the left-hand side to 80 degrees north on the right).
While the fast winds increase at all latitudes, those in the “extratropics” – that is, between around 20 to 60 degrees, where jet streams are found – are the fastest to begin with and thus get the largest boost under climate change.

Percentage changes in fast (>99th percentile) winds at 200 hectopascal (hPa), normalised by the global average change in surface air temperature for each climate model from 80 degrees south to 80 degrees north in latitude. Simulations use SSP5-8.5. The black line indicates the multi-model average and the shading indicates one standard deviation of the response across all the models. Source: Shaw & Miyawaki (2023)
Moist air
In addition to quantifying the “signal” of long-term change, we also provide a physical explanation for why it occurs.
Bridging the gap between simulating the response to climate change using models and understanding the causes helps us justify that this is a signal to take seriously.
The first step we take is to simplify the model to help isolate what physics underlies the signal. When the model is run without ocean currents and without land, we still find the signal.
This suggests that the fast-get-faster signal emerges in a world formed entirely of water. The result implies that the physics of a moist atmosphere is key to explaining the fast-get-faster response.
The second step we take is to use our physical understanding of the jet stream to quantify the connection between moisture and the signal.
The jet stream exists because of the contrast of density between air at the equator, which is warm and light, and air at the pole, which is cold and dense. We connect this contrast to the response of moisture under climate change.
In particular, in today’s climate, tropical air holds more moisture than air at the poles because it is warmer. Climate change exacerbates this contrast because hotter air can hold much more moisture than colder air.
While the air at the poles is warming more rapidly than in the tropics, hotter air can hold so much more moisture than cold air that the overall density difference still increases.
This effect increases the density contrast under climate change, accelerating the jet-stream winds. Importantly, the effect is multiplicative – namely, fast jet-stream winds today that involve a steep density contrast would be boosted much more in the future than slower jet-stream winds that involve a shallower density contrast.
Thus, our results project record-breaking jet-stream winds.
Emerging signal
When we look at the recent past (1980–2022) using reanalysis data – which combines physical observations with model simulations – we do not find that the fast-get-faster signal has yet emerged from the noise of natural variability.
However, all the climate models in our study suggest that a statistically significant fast-get-faster signal will emerge for the extratropics in both the southern and northern hemispheres by the middle of this century.
Specifically, under SSP2-4.5, all climate models project the signal in the southern and northern hemispheres extratropics by 2038 and 2048, respectively. Under SSP5-8.5, this is slightly earlier – by 2035 and 2045, respectively.
This is shown in the figures below, which show the percentage change in fast jet-stream winds, relative to 1980-2000, from 1980 to 2050 in the southern (top) and northern (bottom) hemispheres, excluding the tropics. The lines indicate reanalysis data (black) and climate models projections under SSP2-4.5 (green) and SSP5-8.5 (orange).
The charts on the right-hand side show the trend, per degree of warming, for each model (green and orange) and the reanalysis data (black). Closed and open circles indicate results that are and are not statistically significant, respectively.

Timeseries of percentage changes (relative to 1980-2000) in fast 200hPa jet-stream winds in reanalysis and climate models for different emission scenarios for the southern (top) and northern (bottom) hemisphere extratropics from 1980 to 2050. Data are presented as multi-model average (thick line) with one standard deviation of the response across the models (shading). Right-hand charts show the linear trends of these changes per degree of global warming, where statistically significant trends are indicated by closed circles. Source: Shaw & Miyawaki (2023)
We are now working to better understand the knock-on impacts of these changes in the jet stream for severe weather.
New climate models are allowing scientists to look in greater detail at how extreme weather is – and will – change. Ultimately, unravelling the impacts of climate change on winds at regional scales will help society better prepare for the implications of a warming world.
The post Guest post: Why ‘jet-streak’ winds will get faster as the climate warms appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: Why ‘jet-streak’ winds will get faster as the climate warms
Climate Change
Brazil’s Lula requests national roadmap for fossil fuel transition
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has asked his government to draft by February guidelines for a national roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, an idea he championed during COP30.
In a directive issued on Monday, the Brazilian leader requested the ministries of finance, energy and environment, together with the chief of staff’s office, to come up with a proposal for a roadmap to a “just and planned energy transition” that would lead to the “gradual reduction of the country’s dependence on fossil fuels”.
The order also calls for the creation of financial mechanisms to support a roadmap, including an “Energy Transition Fund” that would be financed with government revenues from oil and gas exploration.
The guidelines, due in 60 days, will be delivered “as a priority” to Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council, which will use them to craft an official fossil fuel transition roadmap.
At the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, President Lula and Environment Minister Marina Silva called on countries to agree a process leading to an international roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels, after Silva argued earlier in June that “the worst possible thing would be for us to not plan for this transition”.
Yet, to the disappointment of more than 80 countries, the proposal for a global roadmap did not make it into the final Belém agreement as other nations that are heavily reliant on fossil fuel production resisted the idea. Draft compromise language that would have offered countries support to produce national roadmaps was axed.
Brazil seeks to set an example
Instead, Brazil’s COP30 president said he would work with governments and industry on a voluntary initiative to produce such a roadmap by next year’s UN climate summit, while a group of some 25 countries backed a conference to discuss a just transition away from coal, oil and gas that will be hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands in April 2026.
Experts at Observatório do Clima, a network of 130 Brazilian climate NGOs, welcomed Lula’s subsequent order for a national roadmap and said in a statement it sends signals abroad that Brazil is “doing its homework”.
“President Lula seems to be taking the roadmap proposal seriously,” said Cláudio Angelo, international policy coordinator at Observatório do Clima. “If Brazil – a developing country and the world’s eighth-largest oil producer – demonstrates that it is willing to practice what it preaches, it becomes harder for other countries to allege difficulties.”
The Amazon rainforest emerges as the new global oil frontier
Brazil is one of a number of countries planning a major expansion of oil and gas extraction in the coming decade, according to the Production Gap report put together by think-tanks and NGOs. Much of the exploration is set to take place offshore near the Amazon basin, which is poised to become a new frontier for fossil fuel development.
Significant funding needed
Natalie Unterstell, president of the Brazilian climate nonprofit Talanoa Institute and a member of Lula’s Council for Sustainable Social Economic Development, welcomed the national roadmap proposal in a post on LinkedIn, but emphasised it must tackle Brazil’s goal of becoming the world’s fourth largest oil producer by 2030.
Another key question is whether the Energy Transition Fund it envisages will be large enough to catalyse a real shift over to clean energy, she added. “Small and fragmented tools won’t move the dial,” she wrote.
Some Brazilian states have tested a model similar to the proposal for a national Energy Transition Fund. In the oil-producing state of Espirito Santo, for example, a percentage of the state government’s oil revenues go to a sovereign fund that invests in renewable energy, energy efficiency projects and substitution of fossil fuels with less polluting alternatives.
Colombia seeks to speed up a “just” fossil fuel phase-out with first global conference
Andreas Sieber, associate director for policy at campaign group 350.org, said a meaningful roadmap for Brazil would need to secure “adequate, fair and transparent financing to make the transition real on the ground”.
He also called for “a truly participatory process – involving scientists, civil society, workers whose livelihoods are at stake, and frontline and traditional communities whose rights must be upheld – while ensuring that those with vested fossil fuel interests do not shape the outcome”.
The post Brazil’s Lula requests national roadmap for fossil fuel transition appeared first on Climate Home News.
Brazil’s Lula requests national roadmap for fossil fuel transition
Climate Change
Environmental Groups Demand a Nationwide Freeze on Data Center Construction
In a letter to Congress, the groups said data center development raises concerns about rising energy costs, water use and climate impacts. Many communities are fighting back.
More than 200 environmental organizations signed a letter to Congress supporting a national moratorium on the approval and construction of new data centers. The letter, sent Monday, highlights these centers’ impacts on water resources, electricity rates and greenhouse gas emissions.
Environmental Groups Demand a Nationwide Freeze on Data Center Construction
Climate Change
The Household Choice: Climate Change and the Weight of Everyday Decisions
Climate change is often discussed in global terms, such as the melting of ice caps, rising oceans, and the spread of wildfires. However, the truth is that it begins at home. Every single-family household, whether in the bustle of Toronto, the suburbs of Vancouver, a farming community on the Prairies, or a small northern town, is an active participant in shaping the climate future. The actions we take or fail to take are not isolated. They accumulate, reverberate, and shape the quality of life our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren will inherit.
The Myth of Insignificance
Many households believe their contribution is too small to matter. “What difference does it make if I leave the lights on, drive everywhere, or throw food scraps in the garbage? I’m just one family.” But this myth of insignificance is one of the greatest dangers of our time. Each discarded plastic bottle, each unnecessary car trip, each bag of wasted food does not disappear. It piles up, becoming part of the global crisis of climate change. What feels like a private choice is, in reality, a public consequence.
Inaction as a Legacy
Imagine a Canadian family that chooses not to recycle, not to conserve, not to shift their habits. For a year, the consequences may feel invisible. But roll the clock forward. By 2050, their grandchildren in Toronto will wake up to summers filled with weeks-long heat advisories. Schoolyards and parks sit empty in July because it is too dangerous for children to play outdoors. Ontario’s hydro grid is stretched thin due to millions of air conditioners running simultaneously, leading to rolling blackouts. Food prices have doubled as droughts in the Prairies devastate crops, and supply chains falter. Sound familiar? Its already happening across Canada!
Meanwhile, their cousins in Prince Edward Island are coping with rising seas. Entire communities along the coast are gone, washed away by storm surges that happen with increasing frequency. Families that lived by the water for generations have been forced inland, their ancestral homes now threatened by sea rise. This is not exaggeration, climate science paints a stark and very real picture of future coastal realities.
By 2075, their great-grandchildren in northern communities will live with constant water restrictions, as the thawing of permafrost has altered rivers and lakes. Traditional hunting grounds are unsafe because the ice forms too late and melts too soon. Invasive pests and fire scar forests that once provided medicine and food. The Earth around them bears the weight of countless small inactions compounded across time. And when they look back, they see a generation that knew better but refused to change.
Action as a Legacy
Now imagine another Canadian family. They compost, recycle, conserve, and teach their children that every small act of stewardship makes a difference. For a year, the impact may seem modest. But roll the clock forward.
By 2050, their grandchildren in Winnipeg will be growing vegetables in backyard and community gardens, nourished by decades of composting. Energy bills are lower because their homes are equipped with rooftop solar panels and properly insulated to conserve heat in winter and cool in summer. Children still play outside freely because air quality warnings are rare.
Out east, their relatives in Halifax have adapted coastal homes to utilize renewable energy micro-grids and employ storm-resilient design. They continue to live by the ocean, harvesting from healthier waters thanks to decades of careful stewardship and waste reduction. By 2075, their great-grandchildren in northern Ontario communities thrive in local economies powered by clean energy.
Rivers run clearer because they are not treated as dumping grounds. Indigenous and non-Indigenous households work together in climate-adaptive food systems, including greenhouses, hydroponics, and land-based harvesting, to ensure food security without overburdening ecosystems. This family’s small actions, multiplied over decades, became part of a collective movement toward renewal.
The Full Cycle of Consequence
Every household action has a cycle. Throwing out food waste creates methane gas, which accelerates global warming, intensifying storms that flood homes, including those in Montreal, Calgary, and Fredericton. Driving when public transit is available contributes to emissions, which in turn lead to hotter summers in Ottawa, resulting in higher cooling costs, increased strain on the grid, and potentially blackouts during heatwaves. Buying fast fashion creates textile waste that ends up in Canadian landfills, similar to those outside Vancouver or Edmonton, polluting soils and waterways long after today’s wearers are gone.
The cycle is relentless, and it all begins with decisions made in the privacy of the household. What we must recognize is that there is no neutral choice. Every action either adds to the problem or contributes to the solution.
Looking Generations Ahead
The question is not whether a single-family household can “solve” climate change. It cannot. The question is: will this household’s actions add to the burden or lighten it? Will future children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren wake each morning in a Canada that is habitable and thriving, or one that is hostile and diminished?
To answer this question, every family must reflect on what kind of ancestors they want to be remembered as. Because, in truth, the climate crisis is not just about us; it is about them.
Blog by Rye Karonhiowanen Barberstock
Image Credit :Olivie Strauss, Unsplash
The post The Household Choice: Climate Change and the Weight of Everyday Decisions appeared first on Indigenous Climate Hub.
The Household Choice: Climate Change and the Weight of Everyday Decisions
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