Removing CO2 from the atmosphere using land-based mitigation strategies is central to nearly every country’s net-zero target.
To mitigate global climate change, land-use and land-management sectors need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and remove carbon from the atmosphere.
Protecting ecosystems and dedicating more land to nature-based solutions and climate-smart agricultural practices are promising ways to do so.
To date, there has been little work looking at where, specifically, these strategies may be in conflict with one another.
Our research, published in Global Change Biology, assesses opportunity costs among 19 different land-use strategies for climate mitigation.
We find that roughly 8.5bn hectares of land around the globe are suitable for at least one land-based mitigation strategy – representing about 60% of the Earth’s land surface.
However, almost 40% of this land is suitable for more than one mitigation strategy, presenting decisionmakers with a choice as to which strategy or strategies they should deploy.
Land-based mitigation
To achieve global climate targets in a timely manner, some studies call for up to 10% of Earth’s terrestrial surface to undergo a land-cover change.
But is there actually enough land to make this happen? And if there is, how can projects be scaled up strategically to maximise the mitigation benefits while minimising negative impacts on humans and biodiversity?
Disciplinary silos and practical uncertainties have previously made these questions hard to answer.
For instance, nature-based solutions, including habitat conservation and restoration, are often differentiated from other climate-motivated land-use practices, such as bioenergy cropping and afforestation. Yet, both types of practices can have significant trade-offs for biodiversity and for agriculture.
Although controversial, these types of climate-specific land-use changes are proposed in many national climate mitigation plans. As these plans are put in motion, the trade-offs that could result from increasing the land dedicated to certain strategies over others need careful consideration.
In our study, we assess land-use opportunity costs across a portfolio of 19 different strategies for climate mitigation.
Broadly speaking, these strategies can be classified into four main approaches to mitigation: maintaining or protecting ecosystems, modifying forestry or agricultural management practices, restoring ecosystems and converting land to increase biomass.
Of these, certain approaches and strategies can be used to avoid emissions, while others can be used to sequester carbon.
Among the strategies we studied are the protection and restoration of forest, wetland, peatland and grassland habitats, various approaches to climate-smart cropland and forestry management (including biochar and silvopasture), bioenergy cropping with carbon capture and storage and afforestation.
We used global datasets on forests, croplands and other habitat types alongside data on environmental conditions such as temperature to estimate how much of the global land area is suitable for each strategy.
Then, we created global maps at a one kilometre resolution that identify areas that could be considered for these measures.
Land potentials
We find that some strategies had large regions of suitability.
For example, deforestation and other types of habitat loss are a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions from the land-use sector. Maintaining grassland and forest habitat types to prevent losses can be done anywhere that such loss is occurring.
Maintaining the carbon stored in ecosystems that are currently unprotected accounts for more than 3bn hectares of the land we estimate as suitable for land-based climate mitigation – equal to about 20% of the Earth’s land surface.
Other strategies, including peatland restoration and silvopasture, had much more restricted areas of suitability across the globe.
For peatland restoration, priority areas are primarily distributed in the boreal zone – the high-latitude northern hemisphere, just south of the Arctic. Cropland expansion has led to widespread peatland loss in this region over the past several decades.
For silvopasture – a type of livestock farming that integrates tree cover with grazing – suitability is primarily constrained by environmental limits on tree growth. Here, factors such as water availability determine in which regions traditional pastoral systems could be converted to silvopasture.
The figure below shows the 19 mitigation strategies we studied and the area of the Earth that is suitable for each, in millions of hectares. The three maps on the right show example distributions for (from top to bottom) enhanced chemical weathering, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and integrating trees into croplands.
Conflict potential
When summing the suitable area across all the 19 strategies we examined, we find that a huge area of Earth – almost 60% of its land surface – is theoretically suitable for land-based climate mitigation.
However, the majority of this area captures regions where more than one mitigation strategy is suitable.
In some cases, these overlapping land potentials involve mitigation strategies that can be deployed jointly, such as increasing the carbon stored in soils at the same time as increasing the carbon stored in aboveground biomass.
One example of this is the potential to collectively implement enhanced chemical weathering and improved plantation management, which have a combined land suitability of 348m hectares.
(Enhanced chemical weathering involves spreading ground-up silicate rocks onto farms or other land. This speeds up natural chemical processes and removes CO2 from the atmosphere, while also improving crop yields.)
However, suitable areas for compatible strategies were rare, compared to the area where conflicts between strategies could occur.
For instance, large portions of the US, Europe and China are suitable for both ecosystem restoration and climate-smart agriculture.
In these regions, societies face a choice between restoring grassland, forest and wetland habitats, or continuing to manage the land for agriculture, where climate-smart practices could still be implemented to decrease greenhouse gas emissions or sequester more carbon.
Because the choice between large-scale restoration and climate-smart agriculture may involve a trade-off between restoring habitat for biodiversity or maintaining land use for people, we avoid making any recommendations about which land-use practices to implement.
Rather, our paper highlights areas where these trade-offs could occur – places in which large-scale top-down planning could conflict with local priorities for land-use.
More research is needed to map local constraints and management costs so that the choice between mitigation strategies aligns local needs with national and global targets for climate mitigation.
Opportunity costs
So, with these potential overlaps and conflicts, is there enough land to meet climate targets?
The answer is yes, in theory – the summed area we estimate as suitable for climate mitigation is more than double the amount of land that has been pledged for transformation by UN member countries in their pledges to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
However, the pace of on-the-ground implementation lags far behind the degree of land-use change needed to limit warming by 2050. And high-level constraints, such as meagre financing or a lack of political incentives, will continue to stall progress.
Given these choices and constraints, land-use opportunity costs should be considered when planning policies that may incentivise certain types of mitigation practices that could inadvertently displace opportunities for others.
As plans to reach net-zero continue to develop, the atlas of maps for mitigation practices – and the exploration of opportunity costs – can guide pathways for scaling up land-based mitigation to address climate change.
The post Guest post: The conflicting practices in using land to tackle climate change appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: The conflicting practices in using land to tackle climate change
Suresanathan Murugesu is the country director of Action Against Hunger in the Philippines
The Philippines is caught in an extreme weather trap. Here, forecasts for a strong El Niño in the months ahead do not just indicate a period of drought – they also point to torrential rain and flooding.
It could hardly come at a worse time, threatening communities that are still struggling to recover from previous typhoons, such as last year’s Typhoon Tino, as well as two strong earthquakes – in Cebu in September 2025 and last month’s 7.8-magnitude quake in Mindanao.
Forecasts point to the arrival of one of the most intense El Niños in recent history this year and into 2027, with the United Nations warning that it could be the strongest in decades around the world.
The peak of the El Niño is expected towards the end of the year, but the weather phenomenon is already estimated to have caused agricultural losses of nearly €30 million (£25.9 million), potentially affecting the livelihoods of 4 million farmers.
-
Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026
Climatologists say a particularly powerful weather pattern could amplify wildfire risk, heatwaves and flooding worldwide as global temperatures continue to rise -
WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in
Amid warnings of “unprecedented” weather extremes this year, the World Health Organization urges governments to strengthen protections for vulnerable groups -
Philippines storm victims to seek damages from Shell in “unprecedented” climate claim
The case is the first civil claim to directly link an oil firm’s climate impact to deaths and personal injury in the Global South, its backers say
On the climate frontline
For many, El Niño is a figure in a report or a distant headline, but for those of us who live and work on the ground, it is a reality that is already hitting the most vulnerable families.
When I travel through the communities of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region – in the south – or speak with families on the island of Siargao or in the Zamboanga region, I do not see data or graphs.
I see a father looking at his cracked rice field, wondering how he will pay off the debts from a harvest that is already lost before it has even begun. I see a mother walking under a relentless sun because her village’s well has dried up, carrying the water that sustains the health of her children and her entire community.
And what we are seeing today – 26 provinces experiencing drought and millions of dollars in agricultural losses – is only the beginning.
Loss and damage fund delays first project approvals as needs dwarf resources
Many Filipino families are still trying to rebuild and recover after last year’s typhoons and the two earthquakes. In Mindanao, where the recent magnitude 7.8 earthquake displaced more than 90,000 people and destroyed over 19,000 houses, uncertainty remains about when the people will be able to fully recover and return home.
Today, they are trying to protect the meagre possessions they have and, if they are lucky enough to have their home unscathed by typhoons and earthquakes, their homes from flooding; tomorrow, they will have to survive the hardship and impact of drought.
The effects of El Niño threaten to exacerbate their troubles.
Struggle for basic needs
Many low-income Filipino families already face significant challenges to meet their basic needs.
In our daily visits, we see how life is becoming increasingly difficult for millions of people. Rising fuel and transport costs are driving up the price of basic foodstuffs, making them unaffordable for many families. At the same time, crop failures and income losses are leaving households without livelihoods, while disasters contribute to further suffering.
But we are not just talking about hunger. We are talking about health, safety and dignity. Water shortages are forcing many people to resort to unsafe sources, increasing the risk of disease. And, as is the case in so many crises, it is the most vulnerable who bear the heaviest burden: walking long distances every day to fetch water or food, enduring enormous physical strain and facing risks of violence and insecurity.
Building resilience
Faced with this reality, our response is based on a simple idea: to be there before the crisis reaches its most critical point. At Action Against Hunger, we work alongside communities to anticipate the situation, assessing the impact of the drought and activating early response mechanisms to protect their livelihoods and access to water.
We translate climate forecasts into concrete action plans: from support for farmers to programmes ensuring safe water. All of this is done in coordination with local authorities and international partners, because we know that what we do today will make the difference tomorrow.
The hardest months are yet to come. But the question is not just what will happen, but what we are doing now to prevent it. How many tables will remain empty and how many children will see their health compromised will depend on our ability to act in time.
We cannot stop El Niño. But we can prevent it from becoming a crisis of human dignity. We cannot afford to look the other way whilst the earth cracks and opportunities disappear. Because behind every statistic, there is a family struggling to get by. And that is a reality we cannot ignore.
The post A strong El Niño spells more climate pain for the Philippines appeared first on Climate Home News.
A strong El Niño spells more climate pain for the Philippines
Last month, COP31 president-designate Murat Kurum launched a target for 35% of the world’s final energy to come from electricity by 2035.
In an interview with Carbon Brief, Kurum says that the target was not a political choice, but instead reflects the latest evidence on “what is needed to keep 1.5C within reach”.
The ongoing Hormuz crisis means there is an “urgent” need for renewables and electrification, which are the “surest and cleanest way to protect citizens” from high energy prices.
Kurum says that the Brazilian and Ethiopian presidencies of COP30 and COP32, as well as the EU, UK and Canada, have welcomed the target.
He adds that “all have confirmed it will be central to discussions at COP31”.
In the interview, Kurum – who is also Turkey’s minister of environment, urbanisation and climate change – tells Carbon Brief where the target came from and what he expects to happen next.
Carbon Brief: You recently launched a target for 35% of the world’s final energy to come from electricity by 2035. Where did this idea come from?
Murat Kurum: The “35 by 35” target is grounded in technical data and based on the IEA [International Energy Agency] and IRENA [International Renewable Energy Agency] analysis of what is needed to keep [the 1.5C Paris Agreement target] within reach. The level was not chosen politically. Rather, it reflects what the science and the energy modelling tell us is required.
CB: Why do you think an electrification target is important right now?
MK: The case for the target is urgent right now. The latest war in the Gulf has made energy diversification – and, in particular, renewable energy transition and electrification – a top global priority, because it is the surest and cleanest way to protect citizens around the world from high and volatile energy prices.
At a time of real fragmentation in international relations, a single, shared target is needed to focus global efforts by aligning governments, businesses and investors behind a common benchmark and to send a clear market signal.
CB: Which countries are supporting this target so far?
MK: The reaction so far has been extremely positive and, while we presented our target at the UN June climate meetings in Bonn, our earlier conversations with parties at both the Petersberg and Copenhagen climate dialogues paved the way for this launch.
For example, the EU, UK, and Canada have welcomed the target, as have the Brazilian COP30 and Ethiopian COP32 presidencies. All have confirmed it will be central to discussions at COP31.
This support has been reflected in the business community as well, with polling by the We Mean Business Coalition showing that 90% of businesses expect to have largely electrified their operations by 2035 and that 88% expect electrification will make their business more competitive.
CB: How do you hope and expect to see this taken forward at the COP? Could it be in the formal COP outcomes, or part of the second global stocktake?
MK: We are now taking electrification forward as an “action agenda” initiative to bring actors together and drive progress. The action agenda and the [formal COP] negotiations are separate, but complementary, with different processes and thresholds, and it is too early to say what all countries might be able to agree in the negotiations. That is for parties to determine as the year progresses.
We are focused and determined to use COP31 as a moment to spark a global conversation about electrification.
CB: What are the key priorities for reaching the target?
MK: The critical sectors for reaching the target are buildings, transport and industry, which together account for around 45% of global emissions. Financial support for the developing world and investment in grids and infrastructure is also crucial.
The target also builds on COP28’s target to triple renewable energy capacity and seeks to take advantage of the tumbling cost of renewable power and other technologies critical to the energy transition. This is a journey that Turkey itself is taking ambitious steps on, including our plan to reach 120GW [gigawatts] of renewable capacity by 2035.
This interview was first published in the 10 July 2026 edition of Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed weekly newsletter. Sign up for free.
The post Interview: COP31 president says electrification is ‘surest way to protect citizens’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Interview: COP31 president says electrification is ‘surest way to protect citizens’
Climate Change
DeBriefed 10 July 2026: Deadly Europe heat | EU electrification leak | COP31 president interview
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
‘Catastrophic’ climate impacts
RECORD HEAT: Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record – some 3C above average – according to analysis covered by the Guardian. It said the finding came “as the UK enters its third heatwave of the year and wildfires ravage France and Spain”. Le Monde said 10,000 people had been evacuated due to wildfires in southern France.
‘EXCESS DEATHS’: The June heatwave killed more than 2,700 people in France, according to a guest post analysis for Carbon Brief. Similar analysis for Germany said there had been more than 5,000 “excess deaths”, reported Bloomberg. Meanwhile, an ongoing heatwave in the US has killed at least 30 people, said USA Today.
STORM TEST: Floods have killed 39 people in Guangxi province in southern China, said state-run newspaper China Daily. Scientists warned that climate change and the weather phenomenon El Niño are exposing China to “catastrophic storms” that will test its resilience in 2026, reported Reuters. The nation’s latest official climate report found that “extreme weather and climate events…have become more frequent and severe”, said China National Radio.
Around the world
- EU ELECTRIFICATION: The European Commission is set to unveil a 2040 target for EU electrification on 17 July, reported Bloomberg. Citing a leaked draft, it said the plan would aim to cut oil use in half and gas use by two-thirds.
- PEAKING PLAN: China has published an “action plan” for peaking emissions during the 15th five-year plan period to 2030, reported Xinhua. It lists targets including “new energy vehicles” making up 30% of cars on the road by 2030, said Reuters.
- CLIMATE ‘FLAT EARTHER’: The Trump administration has appointed Matthew Wielicki, described by Politico as a “climate critic”, to lead the office in charge of the US national climate assessment. Common Dreams quoted a scientist describing the move as “like putting a flat-earther in charge of NASA”.
- UGANDAN SUIT: A group of farmers from Uganda have launched a legal suit in London against the East African oil pipeline, according to Climate Home News.
23%
The share of Irish electricity used by data centres in 2025, reported the Irish Times.
2%
The share of global electricity used by data centres in the same year, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the Energy Institute statistical review.
Latest climate research
- Meltwater from the western Himalayan glaciers will peak at around 2C of warming, before declining at higher warming levels | Environmental Research Letters
- Current coral restoration efforts may be unsuitable for temperate reefs, including those in the Mediterranean | Nature Ecology & Evolution
- People tend to underestimate the level of “broad public support” for climate action | Nature Climate Change
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Carbon Brief explained – via eight facts – why air conditioning rates in some parts of Europe are relatively low, as the technology emerges as a new front in the global “culture war” over climate action. Analysis for the article illustrated that, in many parts of the world’s fastest-warming continent, air conditioning simply was not needed in the past.
Spotlight
COP31 president speaks to Carbon Brief on electrification
This week, Carbon Brief interviews Murat Kurum, president-designate of the COP31 UN climate talks in November and Turkey’s minister of environment, urbanisation and climate change, on his target to boost global electrification.
Carbon Brief: You recently launched a target for 35% of the world’s final energy to come from electricity by 2035. Where did this idea come from?
Murat Kurum: The “35 by 35” target is grounded in technical data and based on the IEA [International Energy Agency] and IRENA [International Renewable Energy Agency] analysis of what is needed to keep [the 1.5C Paris Agreement target] within reach. The level was not chosen politically. Rather, it reflects what the science and the energy modelling tell us is required.
CB: Why do you think an electrification target is important right now?
MK: The case for the target is urgent right now. The latest war in the Gulf has made energy diversification – and, in particular, renewable energy transition and electrification – a top global priority, because it is the surest and cleanest way to protect citizens around the world from high and volatile energy prices.
At a time of real fragmentation in international relations, a single, shared target is needed to focus global efforts by aligning governments, businesses and investors behind a common benchmark and to send a clear market signal.
CB: Which countries are supporting this target so far?
MK: The reaction so far has been extremely positive and, while we presented our target at the UN June climate meetings in Bonn, our earlier conversations with parties at both the Petersberg and Copenhagen climate dialogues paved the way for this launch.
For example, the EU, UK, and Canada have welcomed the target, as have the Brazilian COP30 and Ethiopian COP32 presidencies. All have confirmed it will be central to discussions at COP31.
This support has been reflected in the business community as well, with polling by the We Mean Business Coalition showing that 90% of businesses expect to have largely electrified their operations by 2035 and that 88% expect electrification will make their business more competitive.
CB: How do you hope and expect to see this taken forward at the COP? Could it be in the formal COP outcomes, or part of the second global stocktake?
MK: We are now taking electrification forward as an “action agenda” initiative to bring actors together and drive progress. The action agenda and the [formal COP] negotiations are separate, but complementary, with different processes and thresholds, and it is too early to say what all countries might be able to agree in the negotiations. That is for parties to determine as the year progresses.
We are focused and determined to use COP31 as a moment to spark a global conversation about electrification.
CB: What are the key priorities for reaching the target?
MK: The critical sectors for reaching the target are buildings, transport and industry, which together account for around 45% of global emissions. Financial support for the developing world and investment in grids and infrastructure is also crucial.
The target also builds on COP28’s target to triple renewable energy capacity and seeks to take advantage of the tumbling cost of renewable power and other technologies critical to the energy transition. This is a journey that Turkey itself is taking ambitious steps on, including our plan to reach 120GW [gigawatts] of renewable capacity by 2035.
Watch, read, listen
HEATED: A Financial Times long read asked if Europe – the world’s fastest-warming continent – is “prepared for a world of extreme heat”.
LITIGATED: The Outrage and Optimism podcast spoke to Prof Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham about the latest trends in climate litigation.
‘SHATTERED’: Confidence in fossil-fuel exports via the strait of Hormuz has been “shattered”, wrote IEA chief Fatih Birol for Foreign Policy.
Coming up
- 13-17 July: Meeting of open-ended working group on the Montreal Protocol, Bangkok, Thailand
- 13-24 July: International Seabed Authority Council, Kingston, Jamaica
- 16 July: International Energy Agency critical minerals outlook 2026, online
Pick of the jobs
- Wellcome Trust, head of policy – climate and health | Salary: £84,640-£105,800. Location: London
- Financial Times, senior reporter, Sustainable Views | Salary: Unknown. Location: London
- North Texas Public Broadcasting, climate, energy and environment reporter | Salary: $70,000-$78,000. Location: Fort Worth, Texas
- Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, head of communications and engagement | Salary: £65,000-£70,000. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 10 July 2026: Deadly Europe heat | EU electrification leak | COP31 president interview appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 10 July 2026: Deadly Europe heat | EU electrification leak | COP31 president interview
-
Climate Change11 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases11 months ago
Guest post: Why China is still building new coal – and when it might stop
-
Greenhouse Gases2 years ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago嘉宾来稿：满足中国增长的用电需求 光伏加储能“比新建煤电更实惠”
-
Climate Change2 years ago
Bill Discounting Climate Change in Florida’s Energy Policy Awaits DeSantis’ Approval
-
Renewable Energy9 months agoSending Progressive Philanthropist George Soros to Prison?
-
Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits
-
Greenhouse Gases12 months ago
嘉宾来稿：探究火山喷发如何影响气候预测