Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Cyclone Chido ravages south-east Africa
DEVASTATING STORM: Hundreds or even thousands of people were feared dead after Cyclone Chido hit the French overseas island territory of Mayotte and then continental Africa, Reuters reported. At least 69 people have been confirmed dead across Mayotte, Mozambique and Malawi, according to Al Jazeera. More than 1,400 people had been injured in the storm and about 8,000 people had taken shelter in schools, the New York Times reported. France will observe a day of national mourning on Monday, reported Le Monde.
POOR DATA: Cyclone Chido is the most intense storm to hit Mayotte in 90 years, the Associated Press reported. The storm carried winds of at least 140mph (225km/h) when it reached Mayotte, which lies between Mozambique and Madagascar, the Guardian said. Scientists have long suggested that climate change is making cyclones worse in the region, but a lack of weather data has hindered more conclusive claims, the Associated Press said.
Coal use to climb in 2024
NEW HEIGHTS: The world’s coal use is expected to reach a new high of 8.7bn tonnes this year and could remain at near-record levels until 2027, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Guardian reported. The newspaper added that the IEA blamed power plants, particularly in China, for the growth. Bloomberg reported that the IEA’s latest forecast “overwrites last year’s estimate that coal demand would begin a steady decline this decade”.
MOVING ON: Meanwhile, the IEA notes that in developed economies, such as the US and the EU, coal power generation continued to see a steady decline and is forecast to fall by 5% and 12%, respectively, in 2024, the Guardian reported. A new Carbon Brief analysis revealed that the number of proposed coal plants in the 38 mainly developed members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has decreased from 142 in 2015 to five today – a 96% drop.
Around the world
- NEW PLEDGE: The Biden administration has committed the US to cutting its emissions by 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035 in a “significant update” to its climate plans, the New York Times reported. However, it adds that the pledge will “almost certainly be disregarded” by the incoming president Donald Trump.
- MAKING CONNECTIONS: A new report published by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) said governments are underestimating the link between biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change, BBC News reported. Carbon Brief also covered the findings.
- NO DEAL: The UN desertification COP16 summit hosted in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia ended without an agreement on a legally-binding response to drought, the Financial Times reported.
- ARID CONDITIONS: A drought has been linked to the death of 80 elephants at the Madikwe Game Reserve in South Africa, the Mail and Guardian reported.
- RENEWABLE POWER: The IEA said tapping less than 1% of Africa’s potential for enhanced geothermal systems could meet the continent’s electricity needs in 2050, Semafor reported.
- FOSSIL PHASEOUT: The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved California’s “landmark plan” to end the sale of petrol-only vehicles by 2035, Reuters reported.
8 million
The number of homes in England that could face flood risks by 2050, according to the UK’s Environment Agency, the Financial Times reported. This means one in four English homes could be at risk of flooding by the middle of the century. The government body said 6.3 million homes already face flood risk in England.
Latest climate research
- Major declines in Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storm frequency in previously ice-covered regions, a new study in Nature found.
- A new paper in the International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control found that the global cement sector could produce “net-negative” cement and meet its 2050 carbon neutrality target early if bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is integrated into cement operations.
- A new study in Science found that more than half of Alaska’s population of common murres, also known as common guillemots, died during an “extreme” marine heatwave event over 2014-16, with an estimated four million of the seabirds lost.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
The number of new coal plants under development in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) region has reached record lows since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, according to the latest data from Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT). Proposed coal-fired capacity in the OECD has fallen from 142 in 2015 to just five today, shown in the map above.
Spotlight
Unpacking the political economy of Africa’s energy transition
This week, Carbon Brief reports from a conference in Chicago on how Africa can transition to low-carbon energy and boost access to electricity.
Earlier this month, a panel of academics convened at the African Studies Association conference in Chicago to discuss the political economy of Africa’s energy transition.
The conference papers highlighted the role of national governments, resource endowments, and sovereignty in the continent’s adoption of non-hydro renewable energy.
Africa’s energy transition is contested. Amid the continent’s energy poverty – at least 600 million people live without electricity – calls for the defunding of fossil fuel projects have been met with sharp criticism.
While Africa’s significant solar and wind resources mean it does not have to follow the high-carbon practices of the past to produce electricity, funding for clean energy on the continent remains starkly inadequate.
‘Politicised’ decisions
One of the papers presented at the Chicago conference, focusing on Tanzania,
noted that decision-making around energy projects is routinely politicised.
While the east African country has long pushed to diversify its energy mix, the ruling party has often prioritised projects with short-term deliverability and impact.
Focusing on solar and wind energy projects can be viewed as “politically risky”, said Dr Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies and one of the paper’s authors.
The scenario is similar in Ghana where politicians have turned to fossil fuel sources as quick fixes to the problem of energy security, paying less attention to sustainability or decarbonisation – issues that are less popular with voters.
Meanwhile, the discovery and development of gas reserves in Tanzania and Ghana has inspired a nationalist pushback against the notion of abandoning fossil fuels.
This is despite analysis showing that a push to reach net-zero by 2070 in Ghana by deploying renewables, low-carbon hydrogen, electric vehicles and clean cookstoves could present a $550bn international investment opportunity and create a net 400,000 jobs.
Countries that are rich in fossil fuels generally push for using such fuel sources for their power sectors, while others are more open to developing renewable energy capacity.
For example, Kenya, an African country with limited fossil fuel resources, has become one of the world’s fastest-growing developers of geothermal energy.
Moving forward with renewables
Given the political weight of energy security in Africa, Pedersen said that pushing for non-hydro renewable energy should fit into the dominant ideas about development held by African political elites.
In his opinion, this could include the use of gas “in the short to medium term”, but he added “there is discussion” about “how to use it in the best way”.
Dr Matthew Tyce, a researcher at King’s College London who has studied the role of the Kenyan government in geothermal energy development, told Carbon Brief that African countries need to be “cautious about adopting the kinds of institutional configurations that are often promoted by international actors”, which emphasise market-based solutions.
He also urged international donors and development finance institutions “to be less dogmatic about promoting modes of energy transition that rely disproportionately on private investment”.
The Asian model
For Anne Marx Lorenzen, a PhD candidate researching the sustainability of Chinese and Japanese renewable energy projects in Cambodia, Indonesia and Ethiopia, global north countries can learn a lot from the Asian approach.
By working with the Ethiopian government’s developmental vision, China and Japan have invested heavily in the country’s energy resources, becoming a viable alternative to global north partners, Lorensen argued in a paper presented at the conference.
The global north “needs to listen more to our African partners and what they want their own development trajectory to be”, Lorensen told Carbon Brief, adding: “I think in the past, we’ve been focused on setting terms and conditions, focused on liberalisation and privatisation.”
Tanzanians “want an energy transition that recognises their energy access and security needs”, Dr Japhace Poncian, a senior lecturer at the Mkwawa University College of Education, said. He added: “Ensuring access to energy is a primary goal and this does not care much about the greenness of the source.”
Watch, read, listen
ENVIRONMENT ADVOCATES: The New Yorker‘s Elizabeth Kolbert highlighted Vauatu’s role in the International Court of Justice’s decision to rule on climate change.
EV REVOLUTION: In a new edition of Sinica, host Kaiser Kuo discussed China’s rapid surge in electric vehicle manufacturing, adoption and export with Illaria Mazzocco, deputy director and senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
A NEW WORLD: During a trip to South Africa, United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, said Africa needs financial, climate and technological justice.
Coming up
- 29 December: Croatia Presidential elections, Croatia
- 15 January: Oil Market Report launch, IEA.
- 16 – 17 January: First Sustainable Finance Working Group Meeting, G20.
Pick of the jobs
- Lincolnshire Wildlife Trust, Head of Public Engagement and Communications | Salary: £50,000. Location: Horncastle, Lincolnshire.
- ProPublica, Reporter, Climate | Salary: $95,000-$170,000. Location: New York or remote.
- Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council, Climate and Energy Officer | Salary: £38,626-£43,693. Location: Tameside, Greater Manchester.
- Octopus Energy, Energy Specialist | Salary: £24,300. Location: Central Brighton.
- Grist, Climate News Fellow | Salary: $58,750. Location: US.
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 20 December 2024: Cyclone Chido hits; Coal’s new peak; Africa’s energy transition appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 20 December 2024: Cyclone Chido hits; Coal’s new peak; Africa’s energy transition
Suresanathan Murugesu is the country director of Action Against Hunger in the Philippines
The Philippines is caught in an extreme weather trap. Here, forecasts for a strong El Niño in the months ahead do not just indicate a period of drought – they also point to torrential rain and flooding.
It could hardly come at a worse time, threatening communities that are still struggling to recover from previous typhoons, such as last year’s Typhoon Tino, as well as two strong earthquakes – in Cebu in September 2025 and last month’s 7.8-magnitude quake in Mindanao.
Forecasts point to the arrival of one of the most intense El Niños in recent history this year and into 2027, with the United Nations warning that it could be the strongest in decades around the world.
The peak of the El Niño is expected towards the end of the year, but the weather phenomenon is already estimated to have caused agricultural losses of nearly €30 million (£25.9 million), potentially affecting the livelihoods of 4 million farmers.
-
Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026
Climatologists say a particularly powerful weather pattern could amplify wildfire risk, heatwaves and flooding worldwide as global temperatures continue to rise -
WHO issues new guidance on heat-health action plans, as El Niño sets in
Amid warnings of “unprecedented” weather extremes this year, the World Health Organization urges governments to strengthen protections for vulnerable groups -
Philippines storm victims to seek damages from Shell in “unprecedented” climate claim
The case is the first civil claim to directly link an oil firm’s climate impact to deaths and personal injury in the Global South, its backers say
On the climate frontline
For many, El Niño is a figure in a report or a distant headline, but for those of us who live and work on the ground, it is a reality that is already hitting the most vulnerable families.
When I travel through the communities of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region – in the south – or speak with families on the island of Siargao or in the Zamboanga region, I do not see data or graphs.
I see a father looking at his cracked rice field, wondering how he will pay off the debts from a harvest that is already lost before it has even begun. I see a mother walking under a relentless sun because her village’s well has dried up, carrying the water that sustains the health of her children and her entire community.
And what we are seeing today – 26 provinces experiencing drought and millions of dollars in agricultural losses – is only the beginning.
Loss and damage fund delays first project approvals as needs dwarf resources
Many Filipino families are still trying to rebuild and recover after last year’s typhoons and the two earthquakes. In Mindanao, where the recent magnitude 7.8 earthquake displaced more than 90,000 people and destroyed over 19,000 houses, uncertainty remains about when the people will be able to fully recover and return home.
Today, they are trying to protect the meagre possessions they have and, if they are lucky enough to have their home unscathed by typhoons and earthquakes, their homes from flooding; tomorrow, they will have to survive the hardship and impact of drought.
The effects of El Niño threaten to exacerbate their troubles.
Struggle for basic needs
Many low-income Filipino families already face significant challenges to meet their basic needs.
In our daily visits, we see how life is becoming increasingly difficult for millions of people. Rising fuel and transport costs are driving up the price of basic foodstuffs, making them unaffordable for many families. At the same time, crop failures and income losses are leaving households without livelihoods, while disasters contribute to further suffering.
But we are not just talking about hunger. We are talking about health, safety and dignity. Water shortages are forcing many people to resort to unsafe sources, increasing the risk of disease. And, as is the case in so many crises, it is the most vulnerable who bear the heaviest burden: walking long distances every day to fetch water or food, enduring enormous physical strain and facing risks of violence and insecurity.
Building resilience
Faced with this reality, our response is based on a simple idea: to be there before the crisis reaches its most critical point. At Action Against Hunger, we work alongside communities to anticipate the situation, assessing the impact of the drought and activating early response mechanisms to protect their livelihoods and access to water.
We translate climate forecasts into concrete action plans: from support for farmers to programmes ensuring safe water. All of this is done in coordination with local authorities and international partners, because we know that what we do today will make the difference tomorrow.
The hardest months are yet to come. But the question is not just what will happen, but what we are doing now to prevent it. How many tables will remain empty and how many children will see their health compromised will depend on our ability to act in time.
We cannot stop El Niño. But we can prevent it from becoming a crisis of human dignity. We cannot afford to look the other way whilst the earth cracks and opportunities disappear. Because behind every statistic, there is a family struggling to get by. And that is a reality we cannot ignore.
The post A strong El Niño spells more climate pain for the Philippines appeared first on Climate Home News.
A strong El Niño spells more climate pain for the Philippines
Last month, COP31 president-designate Murat Kurum launched a target for 35% of the world’s final energy to come from electricity by 2035.
In an interview with Carbon Brief, Kurum says that the target was not a political choice, but instead reflects the latest evidence on “what is needed to keep 1.5C within reach”.
The ongoing Hormuz crisis means there is an “urgent” need for renewables and electrification, which are the “surest and cleanest way to protect citizens” from high energy prices.
Kurum says that the Brazilian and Ethiopian presidencies of COP30 and COP32, as well as the EU, UK and Canada, have welcomed the target.
He adds that “all have confirmed it will be central to discussions at COP31”.
In the interview, Kurum – who is also Turkey’s minister of environment, urbanisation and climate change – tells Carbon Brief where the target came from and what he expects to happen next.
Carbon Brief: You recently launched a target for 35% of the world’s final energy to come from electricity by 2035. Where did this idea come from?
Murat Kurum: The “35 by 35” target is grounded in technical data and based on the IEA [International Energy Agency] and IRENA [International Renewable Energy Agency] analysis of what is needed to keep [the 1.5C Paris Agreement target] within reach. The level was not chosen politically. Rather, it reflects what the science and the energy modelling tell us is required.
CB: Why do you think an electrification target is important right now?
MK: The case for the target is urgent right now. The latest war in the Gulf has made energy diversification – and, in particular, renewable energy transition and electrification – a top global priority, because it is the surest and cleanest way to protect citizens around the world from high and volatile energy prices.
At a time of real fragmentation in international relations, a single, shared target is needed to focus global efforts by aligning governments, businesses and investors behind a common benchmark and to send a clear market signal.
CB: Which countries are supporting this target so far?
MK: The reaction so far has been extremely positive and, while we presented our target at the UN June climate meetings in Bonn, our earlier conversations with parties at both the Petersberg and Copenhagen climate dialogues paved the way for this launch.
For example, the EU, UK, and Canada have welcomed the target, as have the Brazilian COP30 and Ethiopian COP32 presidencies. All have confirmed it will be central to discussions at COP31.
This support has been reflected in the business community as well, with polling by the We Mean Business Coalition showing that 90% of businesses expect to have largely electrified their operations by 2035 and that 88% expect electrification will make their business more competitive.
CB: How do you hope and expect to see this taken forward at the COP? Could it be in the formal COP outcomes, or part of the second global stocktake?
MK: We are now taking electrification forward as an “action agenda” initiative to bring actors together and drive progress. The action agenda and the [formal COP] negotiations are separate, but complementary, with different processes and thresholds, and it is too early to say what all countries might be able to agree in the negotiations. That is for parties to determine as the year progresses.
We are focused and determined to use COP31 as a moment to spark a global conversation about electrification.
CB: What are the key priorities for reaching the target?
MK: The critical sectors for reaching the target are buildings, transport and industry, which together account for around 45% of global emissions. Financial support for the developing world and investment in grids and infrastructure is also crucial.
The target also builds on COP28’s target to triple renewable energy capacity and seeks to take advantage of the tumbling cost of renewable power and other technologies critical to the energy transition. This is a journey that Turkey itself is taking ambitious steps on, including our plan to reach 120GW [gigawatts] of renewable capacity by 2035.
This interview was first published in the 10 July 2026 edition of Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed weekly newsletter. Sign up for free.
The post Interview: COP31 president says electrification is ‘surest way to protect citizens’ appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Interview: COP31 president says electrification is ‘surest way to protect citizens’
Climate Change
DeBriefed 10 July 2026: Deadly Europe heat | EU electrification leak | COP31 president interview
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
‘Catastrophic’ climate impacts
RECORD HEAT: Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record – some 3C above average – according to analysis covered by the Guardian. It said the finding came “as the UK enters its third heatwave of the year and wildfires ravage France and Spain”. Le Monde said 10,000 people had been evacuated due to wildfires in southern France.
‘EXCESS DEATHS’: The June heatwave killed more than 2,700 people in France, according to a guest post analysis for Carbon Brief. Similar analysis for Germany said there had been more than 5,000 “excess deaths”, reported Bloomberg. Meanwhile, an ongoing heatwave in the US has killed at least 30 people, said USA Today.
STORM TEST: Floods have killed 39 people in Guangxi province in southern China, said state-run newspaper China Daily. Scientists warned that climate change and the weather phenomenon El Niño are exposing China to “catastrophic storms” that will test its resilience in 2026, reported Reuters. The nation’s latest official climate report found that “extreme weather and climate events…have become more frequent and severe”, said China National Radio.
Around the world
- EU ELECTRIFICATION: The European Commission is set to unveil a 2040 target for EU electrification on 17 July, reported Bloomberg. Citing a leaked draft, it said the plan would aim to cut oil use in half and gas use by two-thirds.
- PEAKING PLAN: China has published an “action plan” for peaking emissions during the 15th five-year plan period to 2030, reported Xinhua. It lists targets including “new energy vehicles” making up 30% of cars on the road by 2030, said Reuters.
- CLIMATE ‘FLAT EARTHER’: The Trump administration has appointed Matthew Wielicki, described by Politico as a “climate critic”, to lead the office in charge of the US national climate assessment. Common Dreams quoted a scientist describing the move as “like putting a flat-earther in charge of NASA”.
- UGANDAN SUIT: A group of farmers from Uganda have launched a legal suit in London against the East African oil pipeline, according to Climate Home News.
23%
The share of Irish electricity used by data centres in 2025, reported the Irish Times.
2%
The share of global electricity used by data centres in the same year, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the Energy Institute statistical review.
Latest climate research
- Meltwater from the western Himalayan glaciers will peak at around 2C of warming, before declining at higher warming levels | Environmental Research Letters
- Current coral restoration efforts may be unsuitable for temperate reefs, including those in the Mediterranean | Nature Ecology & Evolution
- People tend to underestimate the level of “broad public support” for climate action | Nature Climate Change
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Carbon Brief explained – via eight facts – why air conditioning rates in some parts of Europe are relatively low, as the technology emerges as a new front in the global “culture war” over climate action. Analysis for the article illustrated that, in many parts of the world’s fastest-warming continent, air conditioning simply was not needed in the past.
Spotlight
COP31 president speaks to Carbon Brief on electrification
This week, Carbon Brief interviews Murat Kurum, president-designate of the COP31 UN climate talks in November and Turkey’s minister of environment, urbanisation and climate change, on his target to boost global electrification.
Carbon Brief: You recently launched a target for 35% of the world’s final energy to come from electricity by 2035. Where did this idea come from?
Murat Kurum: The “35 by 35” target is grounded in technical data and based on the IEA [International Energy Agency] and IRENA [International Renewable Energy Agency] analysis of what is needed to keep [the 1.5C Paris Agreement target] within reach. The level was not chosen politically. Rather, it reflects what the science and the energy modelling tell us is required.
CB: Why do you think an electrification target is important right now?
MK: The case for the target is urgent right now. The latest war in the Gulf has made energy diversification – and, in particular, renewable energy transition and electrification – a top global priority, because it is the surest and cleanest way to protect citizens around the world from high and volatile energy prices.
At a time of real fragmentation in international relations, a single, shared target is needed to focus global efforts by aligning governments, businesses and investors behind a common benchmark and to send a clear market signal.
CB: Which countries are supporting this target so far?
MK: The reaction so far has been extremely positive and, while we presented our target at the UN June climate meetings in Bonn, our earlier conversations with parties at both the Petersberg and Copenhagen climate dialogues paved the way for this launch.
For example, the EU, UK, and Canada have welcomed the target, as have the Brazilian COP30 and Ethiopian COP32 presidencies. All have confirmed it will be central to discussions at COP31.
This support has been reflected in the business community as well, with polling by the We Mean Business Coalition showing that 90% of businesses expect to have largely electrified their operations by 2035 and that 88% expect electrification will make their business more competitive.
CB: How do you hope and expect to see this taken forward at the COP? Could it be in the formal COP outcomes, or part of the second global stocktake?
MK: We are now taking electrification forward as an “action agenda” initiative to bring actors together and drive progress. The action agenda and the [formal COP] negotiations are separate, but complementary, with different processes and thresholds, and it is too early to say what all countries might be able to agree in the negotiations. That is for parties to determine as the year progresses.
We are focused and determined to use COP31 as a moment to spark a global conversation about electrification.
CB: What are the key priorities for reaching the target?
MK: The critical sectors for reaching the target are buildings, transport and industry, which together account for around 45% of global emissions. Financial support for the developing world and investment in grids and infrastructure is also crucial.
The target also builds on COP28’s target to triple renewable energy capacity and seeks to take advantage of the tumbling cost of renewable power and other technologies critical to the energy transition. This is a journey that Turkey itself is taking ambitious steps on, including our plan to reach 120GW [gigawatts] of renewable capacity by 2035.
Watch, read, listen
HEATED: A Financial Times long read asked if Europe – the world’s fastest-warming continent – is “prepared for a world of extreme heat”.
LITIGATED: The Outrage and Optimism podcast spoke to Prof Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham about the latest trends in climate litigation.
‘SHATTERED’: Confidence in fossil-fuel exports via the strait of Hormuz has been “shattered”, wrote IEA chief Fatih Birol for Foreign Policy.
Coming up
- 13-17 July: Meeting of open-ended working group on the Montreal Protocol, Bangkok, Thailand
- 13-24 July: International Seabed Authority Council, Kingston, Jamaica
- 16 July: International Energy Agency critical minerals outlook 2026, online
Pick of the jobs
- Wellcome Trust, head of policy – climate and health | Salary: £84,640-£105,800. Location: London
- Financial Times, senior reporter, Sustainable Views | Salary: Unknown. Location: London
- North Texas Public Broadcasting, climate, energy and environment reporter | Salary: $70,000-$78,000. Location: Fort Worth, Texas
- Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, head of communications and engagement | Salary: £65,000-£70,000. Location: London
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 10 July 2026: Deadly Europe heat | EU electrification leak | COP31 president interview appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 10 July 2026: Deadly Europe heat | EU electrification leak | COP31 president interview
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