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The year 2025 has seen exceptionally dry conditions in many parts of the UK.

At the time of writing, a large area of England is officially “in drought” and hosepipe bans are in force for more than 8m households.

This follows severe drought episodes in the summers of 2022 and 2018 – which raises the question of whether these events are part of a pattern towards a drier future.

However, the intervening periods between these drought events have been associated with major floods.

There is good reason to assume this “hydrological volatility” could be linked to climate change.

Writing for Carbon Brief in 2020, we explored how climate change might be impacting UK river flooding.

Here, we revisit this theme – but ask whether global warming is driving a long-term trend towards increasing drought severity in the UK.

To do so, we draw from the findings of a 2023 Environment Agency report, a chapter of which we authored and has now been accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

Key findings include:

  • Future projections indicate hydrological droughts will become more severe in the UK, especially over the months of April to September, due to hotter, drier summers.
  • However, observations from the past 50 years – and longer where records allow – do not provide evidence of worsening drought.
  • This apparent conflict is largely because natural climate variability can obscure underlying trends driven by climate change.
  • An increasingly variable climate in the UK means planners still need to prepare for more severe droughts, as well as more floods.

The 2025 hydrological drought

Droughts are complex events that vary in duration, time of year, location and severity.

They are often categorised into different types. For example, a meteorological drought is defined by a lack of rainfall – whereas agricultural drought is a period when there is not enough water for crops to grow.

Here, we are focusing on hydrological drought, which is when a lack of rainfall results in less water in streams, lakes, rivers and reservoirs.

In particular, we look at deficits in river flow. It is through dwindling river flows that droughts have some of their greatest impacts on society and the environment.

Over March-July of this year, flows for many UK rivers were at their lowest level on record. Hosepipe bans have been introduced by water companies, while the Environment Agency has imposed restrictions on extracting water from rivers and warned of widespread environmental impacts, such as fish die-offs and algal blooms in rivers, streams and lakes.

The map below shows how a significant number of rivers in the UK this spring saw exceptionally low flows (marked by a dark red circle) or notably low flows (marked by an orange circle) compared to the 1991-2020 average. This includes many rivers in northern parts of Great Britain – which is typically wetter the south-east.

The graphs on the right, meanwhile, show how flows in the River Derwent and the River Wye (black line) in 2025 have been at equivalent levels, or lower, than in major past droughts (red, green and orange lines). This includes the record-breaking drought of 1976 (orange line), often used as a benchmark.

Chart showing how flows in the River Derwent and the River Wye in 2025 have been at equivalent levels, or lower, than in major past droughts.
Left: Average river flows for March-July 2025, where the lower number and darker colours represent a lower flow. Right: 2025 river flows (black line) for the Yorkshire Derwent (top) and Herefordshire Wye (bottom), compared to those in 1976 (orange line), 2018 (green line) and 2022 (red line). Credit: National Hydrological Monitoring Programme, UKCEH.

How is climate change going to affect droughts in the UK?

Globally, climate change causes an intensification of the hydrological cycle. This means that both wet and dry extremes – floods and droughts – are likely to become more frequent and severe.

One way of understanding the impact of climate change on hydrological drought is to use rainfall and temperature projections from climate models to drive hydrological models that simulate how the flow of water through river catchments could change in the future.

There are numerous studies that provide such projections of UK drought. (A summary of these can be found in the chapter on modelling in the 2023 Environment Agency report, linked above.)

Across these studies, river flow models generally show that, in the future, the UK should expect lower summer river flows, increasing drought severity and decreasing minimum flows – in other words, the lowest flows in each year will get lower.

The graphs below show projections of changing low flows for a selection of UK rivers from the 1980s to the 2080s over consecutive 30-year moving averages (1983-2012, 1984-2013 and so on, through to 2050-79).

These projections are based on the “enhanced future flows and groundwater” (Eflag) dataset, which provides simulated river flows for 200 catchments around the UK, using four river flow models. These are driven by the “regional” projections from the Met Office’s UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), a 12-member climate model “ensemble” which uses the very-high-emission RCP8.5 scenario.

(For more on why this regional data is only available under this pathway, read Carbon Brief’s in-depth Q&A on UKCP18.)

The multiple lines on each plot – which indicate different projections for low flows – show the uncertainties arising from the different climate model runs and river flow models used.

The charts reveal that, across all rivers and different future trajectories, the trend points in the same direction – towards diminishing minimum flows. This suggests a drier future across the UK, most notably in the summer.

A series of charts showing that, across all rivers and different future trajectories, the trend points in the same direction – towards diminishing minimum flows.
Future projected changes for 12 UK rivers in an index of low river flows over 1983-2080, calculated in 30-year moving averages. The data represents ‘Q90’, the river flow that is exceeded 90% of the time in each year. The four colours represent different river flow models (see source for details). For each, the bold line shows the average of 12 different climate model ensemble members, and the dashed lines show the range across these. Credit: Adapted from Parry et al (2024).

Past trends in drought

Given these projections, we would expect to see a similar trend of decreasing minimum flows emerging in observational data over the last few decades.

However, our research concludes that there is little compelling evidence for any evidence of a widespread worsening of UK droughts over the last half century – yet.

The maps below show how river flows have changed since 1965 across the UK for very low (Q95), medium-low (Q70) and median (Q50) flows.

For much of the north and west of the UK, the lowest flows in each year have, in fact, increased since 1965 (blue triangles). In the south and east of the country, there are decreases (inverted red triangles), but it is a mixed picture. Overall, the number of statistically significant trends is modest.

Three UK maps showing how river flows have changed since 1965 across the UK for very low, medium-low and median flows.
Observed trends in three different indices of low river flows for 1965-2022. ‘Q’ values represent different percentiles, where Q95 is the river flow that is exceeded 95% of the time in each year (i.e. very low flows), Q70 is for medium-low flows and Q50 is the median river flow. Red triangles show decreases – low flows getting lower – and blue triangles represent increases, with the size of the triangle representing the magnitude of change. White shading on the triangles shows changes that are statistically significant. Credit: Adapted from Hannaford et al (in press).

But, while these river flow records span more than 50 years, this is still a relatively short timeframe.

As a result, we also explored much longer records, including “reconstructed” river flows, which stretch back to 1890. Here, too, we find there is no consistent trend towards worsening drought over these long periods.

In fact, our research shows how trends in the last 50 years are often unrepresentative of longer-term changes. Some of the apparent decreasing trends from the maps above disappear when a longer view is taken.

Mismatch between past trends and future projections

There is a clear contradiction between future projections and past trends. We do not yet see much evidence of the drier future that climate models project.

However, this apparent contradiction is unsurprising once uncertainties inherent in both future projections and historical observations are considered.

Future projections are highly uncertain and span a wide range of possibilities – as shown by the multiple lines in the Eflag graphs above.

Caution is needed in interpreting trends in observations, too. While 50 years seems a reasonably long period, trends can be influenced by variability associated with natural atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns.

The trends towards increasing river flows in the north and west are consistent with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – the atmospheric pressure system that influences the UK’s weather on year-to-year and decade-to-decade timescales.

There is a growing list of drivers of drought variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the role of the influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

In a recent paper, we highlighted that long-term trends in low river flows for many UK catchments may not be detectable for decades due to being obscured by natural climate variability.

This is shown by the plot below, which illustrates how projected trends of very low river flows over the 21st century (red line) contrasts with the estimated range of historical river flow variability (dashed lines). (The grey shading shows the range of different climate models.)

It shows that for some catchments – for example, the Lambourn River in south-east England – significant trends do not emerge until the 2050s.

A series of charts showing how projected trends of very low river flows (for the rivers Allan Water, Dove, Lamburn, Frome (Bristol), Teifi, and Ayr) over the 21st century contrasts with the estimated range of historical river flow variability. It shows that for some catchments – for example, the Lambourn River in south-east England – significant trends do not emerge until the 2050s.
Projections show reduced river flows in six selected catchments up to 2080. The grey shading is the range between different climate model members and the dashed lines indicate the estimated range of historical river flow variability. The red dot denotes the year at which a statistically significant trend can be detected. Credit: Adapted from Chan et al (2025).

Part of the mismatch between historical observations and climate projections for UK summer is due to a run of wet summers from the late 2000s onwards. This climate variability has ‘masked’ an underlying trend that could eventually emerge and bring a more worrisome consistency with the projections of climate models.

That this masking has often entailed living with an excess of water, in the form of widespread, damaging flooding, only highlights the challenges water managers face.

A drier and wetter future

Further research is required into how different types of hydrological drought will evolve.

We are confident we will see more droughts in April-September, typically associated with heatwaves, as in 2025, 2022 and 2018. This is because warming temperatures – which, unlike rainfall trends, are certain – will exacerbate droughts.

The increased likelihood of hot, dry summers also means more rapid-onset “flash droughts”, which have impacts on soil moisture as well as river flows.

As such, the droughts of recent years should be interpreted as a warning that hotter temperatures will worsen drought impacts.

However, we are much less confident that we will see more long, multi-annual droughts driven by dry winters that fail to replenish reservoirs and aquifers, such as those seen in 1988-93, 2005-06 and 2010-12. This is because climate models generally predict wetter winters for the UK. (These multi-annual droughts have, historically, posed some of the greatest challenges to water management.)

Nevertheless, climate variability means that even if winters get wetter, there will always be runs of dry years. This is a cause for concern, as the greatest problems occur when wet winters combine with dry summers. (It was the dry winter of 1975-76 which made the 1976 drought so severe). 

Our finding that it is difficult to confirm whether droughts are, overall, becoming more severe offers little comfort to water managers preparing for the future.

Our research offers a number of recommendations for water planners trying to navigate this complexity. This includes using large climate model “ensembles” to test the resilience of water supply systems to different types of droughts. Although model projections are uncertain, they provide a way to assess the UK’s vulnerability to a range of future outcomes.

Furthermore, the hydrological volatility of the recent past indicates the importance of preparing for both a drier and wetter future in the UK.

The UK is known for its variable weather, but it will have a future climate that is even more variable and extreme.

The post Guest post: Is climate change making UK droughts worse? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Guest post: Is climate change making UK droughts worse?

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Q&A: COP30 could – finally – agree how to track the ‘global goal on adaptation’

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Nearly a decade on from the Paris Agreement, there is still not an agreed way to measure progress towards its “global goal on adaptation” (GGA).

Yet climate impacts are increasingly being felt around the world, with the weather becoming more extreme and the risk to vulnerable populations growing. 

At COP30, which takes place next month, negotiators are set to finalise a list of indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the GGA.

This is expected to be one of the most significant negotiated outcomes from the UN climate summit in Belém, Brazil.

In a series of open letters running up to the summit, COP30 president-designate André Corrêa do Lago wrote that adaptation was “no longer a choice” and that countries needed to seize a “window of opportunity”:

“There is a window of opportunity to define a robust framework to track collective progress on adaptation. This milestone will…lay the groundwork for the future of the adaptation agenda.”

However, progress on producing an agreed list of indicators has been difficult, with nearly 90 experts working over two years to narrow down a list of almost 10,000 potential indicators to a final set of just 100, which is supposed to be adopted at COP30.

Below, Carbon Brief explores what the GGA is, why progress on adaptation has been so challenging and what a successful outcome would look like in Belém.

What is the GGA?

What progress has been made?

Why is it hard to choose adaptation indicators?

What to expect from COP30?

What will the GGA mean for vulnerable communities?

What is the GGA?

The GGA was signed into being within the Paris Agreement in 2015, but the treaty included limited detail on exactly what the goal would look like, how it would be achieved and how progress would be tracked.

The need to adapt to climate change has long been established, with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in 1992, noting that parties “shall…cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change”. 

In the subsequent years, the issue received limited focus, however. Then, in 2013, the African Group of Negotiators put forward a proposed GGA, setting out a target for adaptation.

This was then formally established under article 7.1 of the Paris text two years later. The text of the treaty says that the GGA is to “enhanc[e] adaptive capacity, strengthen…resilience and reduc[e] vulnerability to climate change”.

Paris Agreement text, showing the GGA under article 7.1.
Paris Agreement text, showing the GGA under article 7.1. Source: UNFCCC.

According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), the GGA was designed to set “specific, measurable targets and guidelines for global adaptation action, as well as enhancing adaptation finance and other types of support for developing countries”. 

However, unlike the goal to cut emissions – established in article 4 of the Paris Agreement – measuring progress on adaptation is “inherently challenging”.

Emilie Beauchamp, lead for monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) for adaptation at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), tells Carbon Brief that this challenge relates to the context-specific nature of what adaptation means. She says: 

“The main [reason] it’s hard to measure progress on adaptation is because adaptation is very contextual, and so resilience and adapting mean different things to different people, and different things in different places. So it’s not always easy to quantify or qualify…You need to integrate really different dimensions and different lived experiences when you assess progress on adaptation. And that’s why it’s been hard.”

Beyond this, attribution of the impact of adaptive measures remains a “persistent challenge”, according to Dr Portia Adade Williams, a research scientist at the CSIR-Science and Technology Policy Research Institute and Carbon Brief contributing editor, “as observed changes in vulnerability or resilience may result from multiple climatic and non-climatic factors”. She adds:

“In many contexts, data limitations and inconsistent monitoring systems, particularly in developing countries, constrain systematic tracking of adaptation efforts. Existing monitoring frameworks tend to emphasise outputs, such as infrastructure built or trainings conducted, rather than outcomes that reflect actual reductions in vulnerability or enhanced resilience.”

Despite these challenges, the need for increased progress on adaptation is clear. Nearly half of the global population – around 3.6 billion people – are currently highly vulnerable to these impacts. This includes vulnerability to droughts, floods, heat stress and food insecurity. 

However, for six years following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the GGA did not feature on the agenda at COP summits and there was limited progress on the matter. 

This changed in 2021, at COP26 in Glasgow, when parties initiated the two-year Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh work program to begin establishing tangible adaptation targets. 

This work culminated at COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, with the GGA “framework”. 

Agreeing the details of this framework and developing indicators to measure adaptation progress has been the main focus of negotiations in recent years.

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What progress has been made?

Following the establishment of the GGA, there was – for many years – only limited progress towards agreeing how to track countries’ adaptation efforts.

COP28 was seen as a “pivotal juncture” for the GGA, with the creation of the framework and a new two-year plan to develop indicators, which is supposed to culminate at COP30. 

Negotiations across the two weeks in Dubai in 2023 were tense. It took five days for a draft negotiating text on the GGA framework to emerge, due to objections from the G77 and China group of developing countries around the inclusion of adaptation finance.

Within the GGA – as with many negotiating tracks under the UNFCCC – finance to support developing nations is a common sticking point. Other disagreements included the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” (CBDR–RC). 

Ultimately, a text containing weakened language around both CBDR-RC and finance was waved through at the end of COP28 and a framework for the GGA was adopted.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, Ana Mulio Alvarez, a researcher on adaptation at thinktank E3G,  said that the framework was the “first real step to fulfilling” the adaptation mandate laid out in the Paris Agreement, adding: 

“The GGA is the equivalent of the 1.5C commitment for mitigation – a north star to guide efforts. It will be hugely symbolic if the GGA indicators are agreed at COP and the GGA can be implemented.”

The framework agreed at COP28 includes 11 targets to guide progress against the GGA. Of these, four are related to what it describes as an “iterative adaptation cycle” – risk assessment, planning, implementation and learning  – and seven to thematic targets.

These “themes” cover water, food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, poverty eradication and cultural heritage.

Within these, there are subgoals for countries to work towards. For example, within the water theme, there is a subgoal of achieving universal access to clean water.

While this framework was broadly welcomed as a step forward for adaptation work, there remains concern from some experts about the focus of the programme.

Prof Lisa Schipper, a professor of development geography at the University of Bonn, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) author and Carbon Brief contributing editor, tells Carbon Brief that without the framework there would likely have been continued delays, but there was still “significant scientific pushback against this approach to adaptation”. 

She notes that the IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6) “didn’t necessarily provide any concrete inputs that could be useful for the GGA”. Beyond this, there are political challenges that the framework does not address, Schipper adds, continuing:

“There are also political reasons why global-north countries or annex-one countries don’t necessarily want specificity [in adaptation targets], because they also don’t want to be held accountable and to be forced to pay for things, right? So, the science was pathetic in one way, it was just not sufficient. And then you have a political agenda that’s fighting against clarity on this. 

“So, even though [the framework] came together, it was still not very concrete, right? It was a framework, but it didn’t have a lot in it.”

As with the language around finance, thematic targets within the GGA were weakened over the course of the negotiations. Additionally, parties ultimately did not agree to set up a specific, recurring agenda item to continue discussing the GGA.

However, a further two-year programme was established at COP28. The UAE-Belém work programme was designed to establish concrete “indicators” that can be used to measure progress on adaptation going forward.  

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Why is it hard to choose adaptation indicators?

In the two years following COP28, work has been ongoing to narrow down a potential list of more than 9,000 indicators under the GGA to just 100.

At the UNFCCC negotiations in June 2024 in Bonn, parties agreed to ask for a group of technical experts to be convened to help with this process.

This led to a group of 78 experts meeting in September 2024. They were split into eight working groups – one for each of the seven themes and one for the iterative adaptation cycle – to begin work reviewing a list of more than 5,000 indicators, which had already been compiled from submissions to the UNFCCC. 

In October 2024, a second workshop was held under the UAE-Belém work programme, at which the experts agreed that they should also consider an additional 5,000 indicators compiled by the Adaptation Committee, another body within the UN climate regime. 

One key challenge, Beauchamp tells Carbon Brief, was that the group of experts had very limited time and a lack of resources. She expands:

“They had to finish their work by the end of the summer [of 2025]. This means they’ve not even had a year [and] they have no funding. So of the 78 experts, the number of whom could actually contribute was much lower, and it’s not by lack of desire and expertise. But [because] they have day jobs, they have families…And the lack of clear instructions from parties also didn’t help.”

COP29 formed the mid-way point in the work programme to develop adaptation indicators, with parties stressing it was “critical” to come away with a decision from the summit.

As with previous sessions, finance quickly became a sticking point in negotiations, however, alongside the notion of “transformational adaptation”. 

This is a complex concept centred around the idea of driving systemic shifts – in infrastructure, governance or society more broadly – so as to address the root causes of vulnerability to climate change. 

Ultimately, COP29 adopted a decision that made reference to finance as “means of implementation” (MOI), recognised transformational adaptation and launched the Baku Adaptation Roadmap (BAR). The BAR is designed to advance progress towards the GGA, however, the details of how it will operate are still unclear.  

Going into the Bonn climate negotiations in June 2025, the list of potential indicators had been “miraculously” refined to a list of 490 through further work by the group of experts. While this was a major step forward, it was still a long way off the aim of agreeing to a final set of just 100 indicators at COP30. 

Once again, disagreement quickly arose in Bonn around finance and this dominated much of the two weeks of negotiations. As such, a final text did not get uploaded until mid-way through the final plenary meeting of the negotiations. 

This was seen as contentious, as some parties complained that they did not have time to fully assess it, before it was gavelled through.

Bethan Laughlin, senior policy specialist at the Zoological Society of London, tells Carbon Brief: 

“Adaptation finance has consistently lagged behind mitigation for decades, despite growing recognition of the urgent need to build resilience to climate shocks. The gap between the needs of countries and the funding provided is stark, with an adaptation financing gap in the hundreds of billions annually.

“Within the GGA negotiations, the implications of this finance issue are clear. Disagreements persist over how MoI [finance] should be measured in the indicator set, particularly around whether private finance should count, how support from developed countries is defined, and how national budgets are tracked versus international climate finance.”

The final text produced in Bonn was split into two, with an agreed section capturing the GGA indicators and a separate “informal note” covering the BAR and transformation adaptation. 

Importantly, the main text invited the experts to continue working on the indicators and to submit a final technical report with a list of potential indicators by August 2025.

As this work continued, one of the biggest challenges was “balancing technical rigour with political feasibility while ensuring ambition”, says Laughlin, adding:

“The scale and diversity of adaptation action means a diverse menu of indicators per target is needed, but this must not be so vast as to be unfeasible for countries to measure, especially those countries with limited resources and capacity.”

Meetings took place subsequently, within which experts focused on “ensuring adaptation relevance of indicators, reducing redundancy and ensuring coverage across thematic indicators”, according to a technical report

Beauchamp notes the importance of these themes for continued work on adaptation, saying:

“The themes were really helpful to bring some attention and to communicate about the GGA. They echo more easily what adaptation results can look like, because people find it difficult to talk about processes. But they’re really important. Without the targets on the adaptation cycle, we can too easily forget that you need resilient processes to have resilient outcomes.”

The table below, from the same technical report, shows how nearly 10,000 adaptation indicators have been whittled down to a proposed final list of 100. The table also shows how the indicators are split between the themes (9a-g) and iterative adaptation cycle (10a-d) of the GGA framework.

Number of indicators, by target, in the consolidated list of potential indicators

Source: GGA technical report.

Further consultations took place in September and the final workshop under the UAE-Belém work programme took place on 3-4 October.

Following on from the numerous sessions held under the GGA, negotiators are now able to go into COP30 with a consolidated list of indicators to discuss, agree and bring into use, allowing progress towards the adaptation goal in Paris to be finally measured.

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What to expect from COP30?

A final decision on the adaptation indicators is expected at COP30, potentially marking a significant milestone under the GGA.

In his third letter, COP30 president-designate Correa do Lago noted that a “special focus” was to be given to the GGA indicators at the summit. 

He wrote that adaptation is “the visible face of the global response to climate change” and a “central pillar for aligning climate action with sustainable development”.

Therefore, he said COP30 should focus on “delivering tangible benefits for societies, ecosystems and economies by advancing and concluding the key mandates in this agenda”. These “key mandates” are the GGA and the related topic of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). 

Correa do Lago’s letter added:

“There is a window of opportunity to define a robust framework to track collective progress on adaptation. This milestone will also lay the groundwork for the future of the adaptation agenda.”

Indeed, adaptation has moved up the political agenda this year, with the topic being discussed during the “climate day” at the UN general assembly in September. This included a “leaders’ dialogue” on the sidelines of the assembly, where Carbon Brief understands that leaders of climate-vulnerable nations pushed for specific adaptation targets.

Elsewhere, nearly three-quarters (73%) of new country climate pledges include adaptation components, further emphasising the increased focus the topic is now receiving. 

Despite the increased attention, there are still likely to be challenges at COP30, including the continued fight over finance. This will likely be felt particularly keenly, given that the COP26 commitment to double adaptation finance comes to an end this year.

This was part of the “Glasgow dialogue”, which saw parties commit to “at least double” adaptation finance between 2019 and 2025.

Adade Williams tells Carbon Brief:

“A major expectation [at COP30] is that parties will tackle the gaps in adaptation finance, consider how to link MoI – finance, technology, capacity‐building – with the GGA indicators and possibly set new finance ambitions or roadmaps. The emphasis on MoI means capacity building, data systems, technology transfer and institutional strengthening will gain more traction.”

Adaptation finance was also a key topic during pre-COP meetings in Brasilia in October, with E3G noting that it is a “political litmus test for success in Belém, with vulnerable countries signalling urgency and demanding greater clarity that finance will flow”.

Laughlin tells Carbon Brief that she expects discussions on finance to “dominate in Belém” – in particular, given the legacy of the “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG) for climate finance agreed at COP29, which many developing countries were “starkly disappointed” by. 

Additionally, there may be challenges around the process of negotiations on the GGA indicators, notes Beauchamp, adding:

“We’ve not agreed yet if it is acceptable to open up text of some indicators [to negotiation]. We have 100 of them and, as a technical expert, on one hand [it] is quite worrying, because changing one term in an indicator can change its entire methodology, right? But, at the same time, there is definitely more work that can be done on the indicators.

“So, are we only keeping indicators that can work or that everybody is happy with now, and then we review the set later, for example, with the review of the UAE framework in 2028? Or do we open the whole Pandora’s box and then we start hashing out some new indicators? That’s the first big challenge parties need to grapple with at COP30.”

Despite the challenges, Mulio Alvarez says she would expect a final list of indicators to be adopted at COP30, even if some change during the negotiation process. She adds:

“The Brazilian presidency knows that this is the biggest negotiated outcome of COP30 and they want it to go through smoothly. The adoption of the list would officially launch the UAE framework so that it can begin to track and guide efforts.”

While agreement on indicators would be seen as a political win at COP30, several experts highlighted that it is only a step towards enabling further adaptation work, with Beauchamp noting that parties “need to see this as an opportunity”.

Laughlin adds:

“Although finalising the indicator list is a core deliverable, it is also important that COP30 makes progress on the next steps for the GGA following COP30, including the expectations for reporting, and regular updates to the indicator list so it keeps up with the latest science.”

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What will the GGA mean for vulnerable communities?

COP30 kicks off on 10 November and negotiators are hoping to hit the ground running with the condensed list of indicators to discuss.

There remain key questions about what the GGA could mean for adaptation around the world – in particular, for those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, Mulio Alvarez notes:

“In the short term, the GGA metrics [indicators] will likely paint a very challenging picture of the needs for adaptation. In the medium to long term, we hope the GGA will be embedded in policy planning and implementation – supporting risk assessments, helping identify gaps, driving planning and resources and even unlocking investments.”

Others are more cautious about the potential impact of the GGA, the associated framework and its indicators, in terms of driving real progress for adaptation.

Schipper notes that, while the GGA indicators are welcome from a political perspective, “from a scientific perspective, and I think from a development perspective, I think there’s a sort of a high risk that this ends up making people worse off in the end”.

She adds that the incremental approach currently being taken for adaptation is not working and that the indicators can “at best” show us incremental progress.

Schipper notes that there is a risk that the indicators narrow the approach to adaptation to the extent that they are either ineffective or actually produce maladaptive outcomes. She adds:

“I’m not saying that we should abandon the indicators, but I think it’s important to recognise that this is not enough. This is nowhere near enough.”

Others are more optimistic about the long-term potential of the GGA. Laughlin suggests that the indicators could help build systemic resilience, adding that if they were successfully implemented it could mean adaptation is integrated into national development and planning, “making sure that climate resilience becomes a core part of policymaking”. She says:

“For vulnerable populations, this means moving from a reactive approach to a proactive one – embedding resilience into development planning, restoring ecosystems and empowering local communities.

“The success of the GGA in delivering for vulnerable populations hinges on political will, finance and inclusive governance – many of which are currently lacking.”

Beyond COP30, the GGA framework agreed at COP28 includes a number of overarching targets to help guide countries in developing and implementing their NAPs, although these targets are not quantified. 

The targets include countries conducting risk assessments to identify the impact of climate change and areas of particular vulnerability, by 2030. The framework says this would inform a country’s NAP and that “by 2030 all parties have in place” adaptation planning processes or strategies, as shown in the image below.

GGA within the COP28 outcome text.
GGA within the COP28 outcome text. Source: UNFCCC.

Adade Williams tells Carbon Brief that if the GGA is “effectively implemented” it could help develop systemic resilience in the long term, helping to address “not just climate hazards but also underlying structural vulnerabilities”. She adds:

“However, this long-term potential depends heavily on the extent of political will, sustained finance and capacity support available to developing countries. Without these, the GGA risks becoming a reporting framework rather than a transformative mechanism for resilience.”

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Q&A: COP30 could – finally – agree how to track the ‘global goal on adaptation’

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Self-taught mechanics give second life to Jordan’s glut of spent EV batteries

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In the basement of a middle-class home in Jordan’s capital, a homemade energy storage system connects 20 reconditioned Tesla car battery modules to rooftop solar panels, meeting nearly all of the family’s electricity needs and keeping their lights on during power cuts.

“I installed this on my own, although I haven’t formally trained as an engineer. It’s really a hobby,” said the owner of the house, a middle-aged communications professional who asked not to be named.

“It’s cut my electricity bill to a small fraction of what it was,” he said, gesturing towards the stack of modules and inverters.

He bought the batteries from an auto repair shop in Amman that specialises in repairing and reconditioning Tesla batteries – a growing trade in Jordan, where electric vehicles (EVs) now account for more than half of total vehicle imports, according to data from the US International Trade Association.

Jordan’s transport sector accounts for more than a quarter of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, making it a focus of the government’s climate strategy, which seeks to cut emissions 31% by 2030.

But as climate-friendly tax breaks boost sales and help Jordan emerge as an EV leader in the Middle East, the country now faces a looming wave of end-of-life batteries and a lack of formal infrastructure to deal with them.

That is where people like auto repair shop owner Shadi Jameel are stepping in with an entrepreneurial solution.

Reconditioned Tesla car battery modules are used as an energy storage system in a home in Amman, Jordan (Photo: Yamuna Matheswaran)

New life for end-of-life batteries

Besides undertaking battery repair and maintenance in cars, Jameel’s workshop, located in Amman’s Al Bayader industrial area, also sells refurbished batteries to customers for usage in second-life applications such as mobile and stationary energy storage systems, like that installed by the homeowner in his basement.

“We work exclusively with Tesla batteries,” Jameel said, smoking a cigarette as he surveyed the bustling workshop. “We extend battery life and fix issues such as disconnection between modules and cells,” he said.

With about 150,000 EVs on Jordan’s roads this year, and sales forecast to keep growing in the years ahead, Jameel has plenty of supplies.

By 2035, Jordan will have nearly 200,000 depleted high-voltage lithium batteries from EVs alone, according to the Circularity Hub (C-Hub) for Spent EV Batteries. C-Hub was established in 2024 by the German Jordanian University with governmental support to study the issue and shape policies that will enable sustainable management of spent EV batteries and lead to economic growth.

In the meantime, however, there are no formal channels for depleted EV batteries to be recycled or reconditioned in the country of roughly 11 million people – leading to the involvement of a growing informal sector.

In the absence of formal training programmes in the country, many mechanics have taught themselves how to repair and recondition batteries.

“I learned from online videos and by talking to people in other countries that I work with,” Jameel said.

Tesla cars parked in front of a closed shop with a yellow container on its roof that reads "Shadi"
Tesla cars parked in front of Shadi Jameel’s auto repair shop in Amman, Jordan (Photo: Shadi Jameel)

Safety worries

EV batteries that are classed as end-of-life may still retain up to 80% of their original capacity, according to the International Energy Agency, which means they can still be used in second-life applications, such as household energy storage.

“I’ve seen and heard of spent batteries being hooked up to solar systems or other local power setups, often at family farms or vacation homes in semi-remote areas,” said Fadwa Dababneh, C-Hub’s director.

As well as saving money on bills and reducing battery waste, using spent batteries for energy storage stabilises the electricity grid as Jordan aims to get half of its power from renewables by 2030, up from 29% today.

    But the current informal nature of most battery reconditioning raises safety concerns, Dababneh said.

    “These setups are typically done by freelancers or hobbyists rather than specialists or businesses formally working in this space,” Dababneh said. “Because they’re informal, there’s limited visibility on how widespread or safe these practices are.”

    Two battery-related explosions this year, one in a repair shop and the other during the transportation of a used battery, have spotlighted these risks. While no one was hurt, the explosions have spurred the Environment Ministry to focus on the looming spent-battery crisis.

    Graph showing the number of expected end-of-life batteries in Jordan between 2025 and 2035

    Prolonging battery life

    At the moment, depleted batteries are exported for recycling – mainly to China and Germany, said Mahmoud Zboon, head of the ministry’s Hazardous Waste Department. Otherwise, they can be sent to the sole hazardous waste landfill in the country, where they are held indefinitely.

    In practice, many end up in regular landfills, posing environmental and health risks, including the leakage of toxic heavy metals into the soil and groundwater.

    Ali Al-Zyoud, chief technology officer at ExelX, a company specialising in battery-regenerative technology, wants to change that.

    “There is a lot of potential here in Jordan when it comes to lithium-ion batteries,” he said.

    Headquartered in the UAE, ExelX’s centre in Amman works with Japan-based Battery Bank Systems and uses its technology for the diagnosis, charging, and maintenance of different types of batteries.

    The technology prevents battery deterioration, restores cell balance and prolongs battery life.

    A man rolls a long battery on a trolley in a workshop
    Workers at the ExelX centre, a company specialising in battery regenerative technology, in Amman, Jordan (Photo: Yamuna Matheswaran)

    Private sector challenges

    According to Al-Zyoud, ExelX has extended the lifecycle of more than 500 Tesla batteries over the past three years.

    “Battery replacement is expensive. A regenerated battery only costs 20% of the price of a new one. So this also offers financial benefits to EV owners,” he said, adding that Jordan urgently needs training programmes and collection centres to ensure safe battery storage and prevent dangerous disposal.

    Zboon, the government official, said the private sector has been attempting to invest in the establishment of collection centres. But hefty initial investment needs and lack of standardisation in battery technology were challenges.

    A strategic brief recently released by C-Hub proposed a robust battery-tracking and traceability system, saying that would enable formal private sector investment to capture value from the battery lifecycle.

    Informal workshops should also be regulated and financial incentives would encourage that, Dababneh said.

    “Bringing informal repair shops into the formal system would be very beneficial, particularly in terms of ensuring safety and quality,” she said.

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    For Indian women workers, a just transition means surviving climate impacts with dignity

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    For the Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA), just transition begins not just with carbon, but with resilience – the daily struggle of poor women to withstand the heatwaves, floods and crop failures already battering their lives. Climate shocks that are stripping poor women not only of income, but of dignity.

    Representing 3.2 million informal workers across 18 states – street vendors, waste pickers, construction labourers, home-based producers and small farmers – SEWA has spent more than five decades fighting for rights and recognition.

    “This is what ‘just transition’ must mean for us,” says Mansi Shah, senior coordinator at SEWA. “It is not only about future green jobs or phasing out polluting industries. For women workers on the frontlines, it is about surviving heatwaves, floods and crop failures today – and doing so with dignity.”

      SEWA’s own surveys underline the urgency. More than 90% of women workers report livelihood losses from climate shocks, while 74% say their children’s education has been disrupted. Over 80% of households face water insecurity, 62% food insecurity, and nearly 40% report mental health impacts.

      “When people talk about adaptation or resilience, it sounds abstract,” Shah says. “For our members, it means the difference between feeding your children and selling your dignity.”

      “On one side, hungry children. On the other, her respect”

      One member – a smallholder farmer – told SEWA organisers what happened when a prolonged heatwave dried her fields and wiped out any possible work as an agricultural labourer. With children to feed and no savings, she went to a local moneylender.

      The terms were brutal: extortionate interest and demands for sexual favours.

      “She had to choose between her children’s hunger and her own respect,” Shah says. “That is the kind of choice no woman should ever face. But climate change is forcing it every day.”

      By chance, the woman had been enrolled in SEWA’s pilot parametric heat insurance scheme – designed to trigger automatic payouts when temperatures cross preset thresholds, providing fast, predictable relief when heat destroys livelihoods. On the very day she faced the moneylender, the insurance activated and 1,800 rupees (about $20) landed in her account – enough to buy food for two weeks, enough to walk away.

      Climate change-driven heatwaves hit Delhi’s Red Fort market traders

      Women-led solutions prove just transition works

      For Meenaben, a SEWA smallholder in Kutch district, the blow came from unseasonal rain and hail. Her 1.5-acre rain-fed millet crop, almost ready for harvest – and crucial fodder for her cattle – was shredded overnight.

      “Government relief can take months to reach a village,” Shah explains. “So women like Meenaben are pushed toward debt – often predatory – just to survive the gap.”

      SEWA’s answer is speed and self-help. Through its Livelihood Recovery & Resilience Fund (LRRF) – a blended pool seeded by one day’s wage per member per month, matched by philanthropy – women can access rapid loans within 14 days of a climate shock, long before state compensation arrives. The fund kept Meenaben’s household afloat, paid for inputs for the next sowing, and avoided a spiral into debt.

      “We can’t wait for others to save us,” says Shah. “So SEWA women build their own safety nets – and get back to work.”

      Mansi Shah, senior coordinator at SEWA, says informal women workers want to survive climate shocks with their dignity intact.

      Mansi Shah, senior coordinator at SEWA, says informal women workers want to survive climate shocks with their dignity intact.

      From Gujarat to the Global South

      After piloting its member-owned LRRF a decade ago, SEWA shared its results at a global women leaders’ meeting in 2023 with Secretary Hillary Clinton, Ambassador Melanne Verveer and women’s organisations from Africa and Latin America. The message was clear: women workers across the Global South face the same shocks and the same finance gap.

      On the strength of that model, SEWA partnered with the Clinton Global Initiative to launch the Global Climate Resilience Facility (GCRF) in February 2024. Its framework is complete and fundraising is underway. Once capitalised, it will support frontline women’s organisations to run LRRF-style funds, expand parametric insurance, and scale women-led adaptation and clean-energy solutions across the Global South.

      From rural daughter to solar entrepreneur

      If these stories show the cost of climate shocks, Payalben Munjpura’s shows what investment unlocks.

      Payalben grew up in a village of 250 households in Surendranagar district. Her father was an electrician. Like most rural daughters, she was expected to stay indoors – until SEWA persuaded her parents to let her train as a solar PV technician.

      She completed a three-month course and certification, then formed a team of four. Drawing on her father’s skills, she brought him into the enterprise, saving costs and rooting the work in local expertise. Together, they now install rooftop solar systems in nearby villages through India’s new PM Surya Ghar scheme, which offers households subsidies covering up to 60% of installation costs.

      Her income has transformed the family: she helped reclaim their mortgaged farm, paid for her younger brother’s education, and rebuilt their home.

      “Women are always seen as energy users,” Shah says. “Payalben shows they can be owners, managers and distributors. If skills are brought to their doorstep, women will turn the climate crisis into opportunity.”

      The women-led solutions already in motion

      SEWA’s members are not waiting for policy promises – they are already building resilience from the ground up. Through its Building Cleaner Skies campaign, SEWA links local experience with a broader strategy of women-led adaptation.

      Its Climate School turns climate science into simple visual lessons, training grassroots leaders as climate educators. Its Green Villages initiatives bring clean cooking, biogas, drip irrigation and rooftop solar – all managed by women handling finance, vendors and repairs.

      Brazil’s environment minister urges heads of state to address fossil fuels at COP30

      The movement also nurtures young women climate entrepreneurs who deliver adaptation technologies and green livelihoods. And when shocks hit, SEWA’s insurance and finance schemes move faster than the state, trigger quick payouts and provide loans within 14 days.

      “These are not abstract pilots,” says Shah. “They are working now, in villages across Gujarat. The problem is not solutions. The problem is finance.”

      Lessons for COP30

      A just transition must also confront the realities of climate impacts. For informal women workers, it is not about distant promises of green jobs, but about surviving the effects of warming now – and building social protection systems that can secure their livelihoods.

      SEWA’s experience shows that women-led action works. From grassroots insurance schemes to rooftop solar enterprises, women are already designing and scaling climate solutions that protect both their income and dignity.

      To take these efforts further, finance for just transition policies must be deployed – and made accessible to women on the frontlines. The Belém Action Mechanism (BAM) for a Global Just Transition – proposed by civil society as a key deliverable for COP30 – could help bridge that gap by aligning governments, international institutions and community movements, creating clearer pathways for funding and technical support to reach grassroots initiatives directly.

      But whatever happens in Belém this November, for millions of women like SEWA’s members, the transition has already begun.

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