Food systems are responsible for around one-third of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions – and beef has the largest carbon footprint of any food.
Moving diets away from beef and other red meat has become increasingly seen as an important part of mitigating food-related emissions.
But such changes can have unintended consequences, especially for countries that rely heavily on beef production and exports.
In our new study, published in Ecological Economics, we examine the impacts of a gradual reduction in Brazil’s beef consumption on the country’s emissions and economy.
Using an economic model, we find that reducing the average person’s beef intake in line with health recommendations could make up as much as a third of the world’s potential mitigation from dietary changes (according to the UN) – with little impact on Brazil’s overall economy.
Mitigation potential
Research shows that shifts toward plant-based diets can contribute to both mitigating climate change and improving human health.
Meat and animal-derived food production emits more greenhouse gases and consumes more water and land resources than plant-based food production.
Animal-derived food production also results in calorific loss down the food chain. The amount of calories contained in an animal that humans consume is much lower than the sum of the calories of that animal’s food.
For example, of every 100 calories used for sustenance and growth in animals, humans receive between 17 and 30 calories from meat consumption. This loss during the process of raising, processing and consuming animals is due to various factors, including inefficiencies in digestive processes and the physical activity of the animals themselves.
According to the 2019 special report on climate change and land from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), dietary shifts have the potential to mitigate up to 8bn tonnes of CO2-equivalents (GtCO2e) around the world each year by 2050.
In Brazil, approximately 60% of the country’s annual emissions stem from land-use change and agriculture. It is one of the largest beef producers in the world.
In addition, global demand for beef is directly linked to deforestation in the Amazon as forests are cleared to make space for rearing cattle. It is also of global concern, due to the importance of the Amazon as a carbon sink.
Reducing beef consumption
Reducing red meat consumption is crucial not only for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, but also for improving public health.
Studies have shown that excessive meat consumption can lead to higher rates of cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes and colorectal cancer. According to research from the World Cancer Research Fund and the American Institute for Cancer Research, the ideal limit for red meat – that is, beef, pork, lamb and goat – consumption is up to 300 grams per week per person.
Brazil – along with the US, Australia and Argentina – surpasses this recommended average per-capita meat consumption. Annual beef consumption in Brazil is more than 460 grams per week, according to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Thus, in our study, we set out to reach the recommended per-capita average beef consumption by 2050 – a reduction in consumption of 40%.
We test two scenarios to reduce consumption.
First, we look at relative price changes. We consider a situation where taxes on beef are raised over time from the 2015 average rate of around 8% to approximately 40% in 2050. (Existing taxes on beef in Brazil vary, with specific rates set at the state level.) In a related scenario, we consider what would happen if the funds from such a tax were put towards subsidies for lower-carbon foods.
Second, we look at changing consumer preferences. This could require formal interventions, such as information campaigns and the consideration of culture, emotions and morality. However, it could also occur naturally. Our model does not consider the drivers of the change, but recognises that such a change would occur slowly.
Although there is some movement towards reduced meat consumption due to changing consumer preferences, it remains relatively limited and more concentrated in developed countries. Reasons for this shift in preferences may include higher levels of education and income.
However, in Brazil, meat is viewed as a culturally essential food. In addition, regional preferences differ – for example, there is typically a high beef consumption in the northern region of Brazil, where the Amazon is located.
Despite the international attention linking excessive beef consumption to climate change and Amazon deforestation in Brazil, it has had minimal impact on Brazilian dietary preferences.
Modelling impacts
Our study analyses the impacts of a reduction in beef consumption on Brazil’s domestic market.
We focus on impacts on the country’s economy as a whole, effects on individual sectors such as agriculture and industry, regional impacts and deforestation reduction in the Amazonia and Matopiba regions. Matopiba is a region in the Cerrado, a savannah biome where agriculture has advanced in the last three decades.
The map below shows how Brazil is divided between the Amazon (green), the Matopiba region (orange) and the rest of the country (blue).
MAP
We conduct a set of simulations using an economic model for the two regions. In our model, different groups – such as consumers and firms, including investors, agricultural firms, industries and food service – are assumed to make the best decisions based on what they prefer and what they can afford. For firms, the “best decisions” are the ones that minimise their costs, while consumers seek to maximise their “utility”, or satisfaction.
This model represents how the economy works by looking at how people and businesses behave, how they interact in markets, and when the market will reach equilibrium – that is, when supply and demand are balanced.
We use the model to analyse the effects of policies and shocks on different sectors, regions and groups. We present our results as deviations from a baseline trajectory that assumes constant per-capita beef consumption until 2050, with overall consumption growing at the same rate as the Brazilian population.
It is essential to note that the deforestation reduction captured in the model is related to agricultural activity, not to deforestation associated with illegal logging or land grabbing. However, beef and other agriculture drives around 90% of deforestation in Brazil currently, so this is unlikely to significantly change our results.
The latter has various motivations and can be more effectively inhibited through increased environmental monitoring, land demarcation and other mechanisms developed and applied over the last two decades.
Deforestation impacts
We find that a 40% reduction in beef consumption from 2022 to 2050 would help prevent deforestation of approximately 65,000 square kilometres – larger than the area of Sri Lanka.
It also has the potential to mitigate up to 2.8GtCO2e per year, which is one-third of the total mitigation potential from changing diets presented in the IPCC’s special report on land.
The charts below show the amount of avoided deforestation for the Amazon and Matopiba regions relative to the baseline scenario.
Grey and light green indicate lower amounts of avoided deforestation and dark green indicates the highest amounts. The top, middle and bottom maps show reduced beef consumption through changing consumer preferences, a beef tax and a beef tax with subsidies for other foods, respectively.
In addition to deforestation, we considered the impacts that these shifts would have on Brazil’s economy.
Our findings suggest that dietary shifts due to changes in preferences would have virtually no impact on Brazilian GDP in 2050, reducing it by 0.03% – largely due to a slight decrease in investment.
Adjusting diets through an increase in beef taxes would lead to overall cost increases, resulting in decreases in exports and GDP. We find that GDP would decline by 0.64% in this scenario, with exports decreasing by 1.5%.
However, in the scenario where the beef tax revenue is applied to other foods as subsidies, the national GDP declines by only 0.18%, despite similar decreases in exports.
In all scenarios, we find that the economic impacts would differ from one area of the country to the next. In particular, they would affect regions most dependent on the cattle and beef sector, which are also the most directly affected by the proposed taxation policies. In the beef tax scenario without subsidies, two northern states experience declines in GDP of 3% or higher.
Although Brazilians reducing their beef consumption would bring environmental and health benefits to the country, emissions mitigation cannot be solely Brazil’s responsibility. We observe that the reduction in beef consumption through preference changes leads to a negative effect on the domestic price of beef.
This decrease in domestic prices would, in turn, favour Brazilian beef exports, resulting in less mitigation and a smaller reduction in deforestation. Therefore, it is crucial for this change in habit to be followed by other economies worldwide – notably, those that heavily import Brazilian beef, including China, the US and EU.
The post Guest post: How shifting diets away from beef could cut Brazil’s emissions appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: How shifting diets away from beef could cut Brazil’s emissions
Wildfires have scorched more than 40,000 hectares of land so far this year across the UK – an area more than twice the size of the Scottish city of Glasgow.
This is already a record amount of land burned in a single year, far exceeding the previous high, Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) data shows.
It is also almost four times the average area burned in wildfires by this stage of the year over 2012-24 – and 50% higher than the previous record amount burned by this time in 2019.
The burned area overtook the previous annual record in April, BBC News reported at the time, and has continued to soar in the months since.
Major wildfires
The chart below shows that UK wildfires in 2025 so far have already burned by far the largest area of land over any calendar year since GWIS records began in 2012. The previous record year was 2019, followed by 2022, while 2024 saw the lowest area size burned.
Annual land area burned by wildfires across the UK from 2012 to 2025 (red), alongside the average area burned each year over 2012-24. Source: Global Wildfire Information System.
Climate change can increase the risk and impact of wildfires. Warmer temperatures and drought can leave land parched and dry out vegetation, which helps fires spread more rapidly. Climate change is making these types of extreme conditions more likely to occur, as well as more severe.
Fire services in England and Wales responded to 564 wildfires from January to June 2025 – an increase from 69 fires in the same period last year, the National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) said in a statement in June.
Most wildfires in the UK are caused by human activity, whether accidental or deliberate, according to the NFCC. Some common ignition sources are disposable barbecues, lit cigarettes and campfires.
Jessica Richter, a research analyst at Global Forest Watch, says that, while fires are also a key part of some ecosystems, climate change is the “major driver behind the increasing fire activity around the globe”. She tells Carbon Brief:
“As we see more fires, we’re going to see more carbon being emitted and that’s just going to be, for lack of a better phrasing, adding fuel to the fire.”
Examples of 2025 wildfires around Galloway (1) and Inverness (2) in Scotland, and a wildfire in Powys (3) in Wales. Source: FIRMS, MapTiler, OpenStreetMap contributors.
The UK has also recorded its highest-ever wildfire emissions this year, according to Copernicus, which was “primarily driven” by major wildfires in Scotland from late June to early July.
These were the largest wildfires ever recorded in the country, reported the Scotsman. They “ravaged” land in Moray and the Highlands in the north of the country, the newspaper added.
Scotland experienced an extreme wildfire in Galloway Forest Park in April, which was “so intense it could be seen from space”, the Financial Times said.
Elsewhere, in April, the Belfast News Letter reported that firefighters tackled almost 150 fires on the Mourne Mountains in Northern Ireland.
More recently, BBC News reported that firefighters in Dorset, England received “non-stop” wildfire calls in the first weekend of August, with one blaze “engulf[ing] an area the size of 30 football pitches”.
Wildfires have also caused devastation across many parts of Europe in recent weeks – including Albania, Cyprus, France, Greece, Spain and Turkey – as well as in the US and Canada.
The post Analysis: Record UK wildfires have burned an area twice the size of Glasgow in 2025 appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Analysis: Record UK wildfires have burned an area twice the size of Glasgow in 2025
Climate Change
DeBriefed 8 August 2025: Arctic heatwave; Climate anxiety deep-dive; France’s wildfire crisis
Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Global extremes
RECORD HEAT: Multiple countries experienced record heat this week. Nordic countries were hit by a “truly unprecedented” heatwave, where temperatures reached above 30C in the Arctic Circle and Finland endured three straight weeks with 30C heat, its longest heat streak in records going back to 1961, said the Guardian. Reuters reported that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is facing “surging temperatures this summer”, following its hottest spring ever.
FIRE WEATHER: Some 81 million Americans were under air quality alerts as hundreds of wildfires burned across Canada and parts of the US, reported the Guardian. Meanwhile, a “massive” wildfire in California has “become the biggest blaze in the state so far this year” amid an intensifying heatwave, reported the Associated Press.
TORRENTIAL RAIN: A “torrent of mud” has killed at least four people in the northern Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, Reuters reported. According to the Times of India, “more than one cloudburst” hit the high-altitude district of Uttarkashi on Tuesday, triggering flash floods. It added that cloudburst risks in the Himalayan region are “projected to increase with climate change”. Meanwhile, Taiwan News said that “torrential rain in central and southern Taiwan over several days has left three dead, four missing, 49 injured and prompted 85 rescues”. Flash floods in a Myanmar-China “border town” have killed six people, according to the Straits Times.
Around the world
- COP30 CHAOS: After significant delays and pressure from a UN committee, Brazil has finally launched the official accommodation platform for COP30, Climate Home News reported. It added that “significant markups and sky-high prices remained”.
- MORE TARIFFS: Donald Trump has increased tariffs on imports from India to 50% as “punishment” for the country buying Russian oil, the New York Times reported.
- CORAL BLEACHING: The Guardian said that the Great Barrier Reef suffered its biggest annual drop in live coral since 1986 in two out of the three areas that are monitored by scientists..
- ENDANGERED: Top scientific advisers in the US have announced that they will “conduct an independent, fast-track review of the latest climate science” following the Trump administration’s move to repeal the “endangerment finding”, the scientific basis for federal climate regulations, Inside Climate News reported.
10,000
The number of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas that are “receding due to a warming climate”, according to Reuters.
Latest climate research
- Ecosystem restoration should be “pursued primarily” for biodiversity, supporting livelihoods and resilience of ecosystem services, as “climate mitigation potential will vary” | Nature Geoscience
- Attendees at the 2024 UN Environment Assembly “underestimate global public willingness to contribute 1% of their personal income to climate action” | Communications Earth & Environment
- Urban green spaces can lower temperatures by 1-7C and play a “crucial role in cooling urban environments” | Climate Risk Management
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
Carbon Brief’s in-depth explainer unpacked the findings of a recent analysis on climate anxiety in more detail. The analysis explored 94 studies, involving more than 170,000 participants across 27 countries, to find out who is more likely to be affected by climate anxiety and what its consequences could be. The analysis suggests that women, young adults and people with “left-wing” political views are more likely to feel climate anxiety.
Spotlight
Heat and fire in France
This week, Carbon Brief explores how France’s media has covered the impacts of recent heatwaves and wildfires.
“We’re used to high temperatures, but we’ve never experienced heat like this [so] early in the year before,” a family member who lives in the Dordogne area of southwest France explained during a recent visit to the country.
Over recent weeks, there have been extreme heatwaves and fires across Europe, which has set new records across the continent, including in France.
France is now gripped once again by extremes. The country is currently experiencing yet another heatwave and this week faced its “largest wildfire in decades”, according to France24.
French climate scientist Dr Olivier Boucher, who is also the CEO of Klima consulting, told Carbon Brief:
“Climate change is already having visible and significant impacts in France. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, more intense, and are occurring earlier in the season.
“This trend is accompanied by an increased risk of wildfires, particularly in southern regions, though other areas are also increasingly affected, putting the built environment at risk.”
Red alerts
In July, nearly 200 schools closed or partially closed as a result of high temperatures across the country.
Since the start of the summer, water reserves have been under close surveillance and multiple areas are facing water restrictions as a result of drought.
These water restrictions can include the use of tap water and violations can incur fines of €1,500 (£1,300). According to Le Monde, more than a third of the country is under drought alerts.
France has also experienced a “devastating summer” for fire outbreaks, according to FranceInfo. Traditional firework displays celebrating France’s Bastille day on 14 July were cancelled across the country due to forest fire risks, said Le Monde.
On 4 August, the local area of Aude, situated in the south-east, was placed under a red alert for forest fire risks.
Since then, there have been record-breaking fires in the region. BBC News reported that fires have “scorched an area larger than Paris”. The broadcaster added that the country’s prime minister, François Bayrou, linked the fires to global warming and drought, describing them as a “catastrophe on an unprecedented scale”.
Needing to adapt
Le Point explained how heatwaves impact grape vines and how winemakers have adapted their growing techniques by leaving more leaves on vines to protect the grapes from getting burned by the sun. However, it added that, “in the long run, it is necessary to think about more long-term modifications of viticulture”.
FranceInfo told the story of winegrowers losing their crops, worth millions of euros, in the recent fires in southern France, adding that it is “a real economic disaster for farmers affected by the flames”.
Le Monde interviewed French geographer Dr Magali Reghezza-Zitt, who described the nation’s preparations for dealing with climate change as inadequate. She told the newspaper:
“The gap between what needs to be done and the pace at which climate change is accelerating grows wider each year.”
Boucher added to Carbon Brief:
“All economic sectors are impacted by climate change, with agriculture among the most vulnerable. As the warming trend is projected to continue over the coming decades, adaptation will be essential – both through the climate-proofing of infrastructure and through changes in practices across sectors.”
Watch, read, listen
‘GRASSROOTS ALLIANCE’: A Deutsche Welle documentary explained how unions, activists and the India Meteorological Department have joined forces to protect Delhi’s informal workers from extreme heat.
NEW RULES: A Bloomberg article said that South Africa “will seek jail time, fines and higher taxes for breaches of proposed rules to govern carbon emissions” as part of new efforts to reduce the country’s dependency on coal.
SUSTAINABLE AI?: As the AI race intensifies, the Financial Times investigated if data centers can “ever truly be green”.
Coming up
- 5-14 August: Resumed talks on a global plastics treaty, Geneva, Switzerland
- 10-15 August: Ecological Society of America annual meeting | Baltimore, US
- 13-15 August: African Union-AIP water investment summit 2025 | Cape Town, South Africa
- 15 August: China Environmental Science Youth Academic Conference | Changsha, China
Pick of the jobs
- Save the Children, senior climate advisor | Salary: £61,500-£69,200. Location: London
- Irish Independent, environmental correspondent | Salary: Unknown. Location: Dublin
- Ember, interim managing director | Salary: £89,000-£100,000. Location: Remote
- British Antarctic Survey, seabird remote sensing data analyst | Salary: £41,344-£45,479. Location: Cambridge, UK
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
The post DeBriefed 8 August 2025: Arctic heatwave; Climate anxiety deep-dive; France’s wildfire crisis appeared first on Carbon Brief.
DeBriefed 8 August 2025: Arctic heatwave; Climate anxiety deep-dive; France’s wildfire crisis
Climate Change
N.C.’s Democratic Congressional Delegation Condemns EPA Cancellation of Solar for All
They joined a chorus of critics across the country, where grantees in almost every state had been awarded funds to provide solar energy for 900,000 households in low-income and disadvantaged communities.
Democratic U.S. House members from North Carolina on Thursday condemned the Environmental Protection Agency’s plan to cancel $7 billion in grants for the Solar for All program, created under the Biden administration to expand access to solar energy in low-income and disadvantaged communities.
N.C.’s Democratic Congressional Delegation Condemns EPA Cancellation of Solar for All
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