There is clear evidence that technological change will be insufficient to meet UK and global climate goals on its own, leaving a vital role for consumer and business behaviour change.
Indeed, most measures to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century will require at least some behaviour change by the public.
This includes reducing car use, changing diets to eat less red meat and dairy, cutting waste and buying electric vehicles and heat pumps.
The scale of change is profound: limiting warming to 1.5C would mean reducing the average European carbon footprint from 7.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) to 2.8tCO2e per person by 2030.
Behaviour change is also required to adapt to climate risks, such as flooding, drought and heat stress, our research shows.
This includes emergency and long-term behavioural responses, such as evacuation, buying insurance and installing equipment.
However, policies to deliver these behaviour changes are currently lacking in the UK.
In 2023, a House of Lords inquiry concluded that the government’s approach to enabling behaviour change for climate and environmental goals was “seriously inadequate”.
The Skidmore review of net-zero, also published in 2023, similarly concluded that more government action is needed to support behaviour change and advocated a public-engagement strategy to deliver this.
More recently, in a major review for the Climate Change Committee (CCC), my co-authors and I outlined what behavioural science can tell us about how to deliver effective climate policy.
We found that, in general, wider social or practical factors – such as norms, functionality and price – tend to be more influential for encouraging low-carbon behaviours than an individual’s knowledge, values and emotions.
How to change behaviour
There is a sizeable evidence base on how to deliver low-carbon and climate-resilient lifestyles and on changing behaviour in professional contexts.
Using literature searches and a call for evidence, identifying almost 400 sources in total, we examined evidence for what works to change behaviour within eight main areas:
- diet
- consumption
- aviation
- adaptation
- net-zero skills and careers
- business leaders and the transition to sustainability
- land use and farming
- policy acceptability
Numerous behavioural theories and models exist to explain and predict climate mitigation and adaptation actions.
Psychological theories, such as the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and the value-belief-norm model (VBN) assume action is primarily driven by internal factors, such as attitudes, values and knowledge.
Specifically, the TPB states that behaviour results from intentions, which, in turn, are the outcome of attitudes, perceptions of social norms and ability.
The VBN sees behaviour as the outcome of a sequence of values, which informs beliefs and perceived responsibility for environmental problems, which shapes the moral obligation to act, leading to action.
Since the TPB includes perceived ability, acknowledging external social, physical and economic factors can limit or propel action. Research suggests it does better than the VBN at explaining higher-impact environmental behaviours, such as avoiding driving, than lower-impact behaviours that tend to be more within individuals’ control, such as recycling.
In contrast, sociological theories – such as social practice theory – tend to place more emphasis on the contextual drivers of action, such as physical infrastructure and social conventions.
Social practice theory sees practices – such as showering or cooking – as resulting from the interaction of physical and technological factors, social conventions and skills. These also see action as routine or habitual more often than intentional.
Integrative models also exist that draw on various theories to explain behaviour. One of the most commonly used is the COM-B model, which identifies capabilities, opportunities and motivations as the key drivers of behaviour.
Our review found that, in general, low-carbon and climate-resilient behaviours are driven by both internal and external factors, including:
- Individual knowledge, values and emotions.
- Social factors, such as norms and group identity.
- Practical factors, such as functionality, ease and price.
Of these various drivers, individual factors – such as knowledge – tend to be less influential in changing behaviour than wider social or practical factors.
Consequently, interventions targeting individual decision-making or motivation, such as information provision, tend to be less effective than interventions targeting the context of action. These interventions, such as regulations, incentives and infrastructure changes, typically make behaviour easy, attractive and normal – or even the default.
One review found that informational approaches, such as labelling or in-home displays, were on average only 3% effective. In contrast, “nudges” that adjust choice environments to make sustainable choices easier, but without coercion, were, on average, 25% effective.
These nudges could include locating recycling bins closer than regular waste bins or putting energy consumers on green tariffs (instead of fossil fuel tariffs) by default.
Individual-focused interventions, such as information provision (e.g. campaigns), are known as “downstream” measures, while context-focused interventions, such as nudges, economic measures and regulation, are “upstream” measures.
Despite evidence of its limited efficacy and tendency to exacerbate inequalities, there is a preference amongst policymakers for downstream over upstream interventions.
This is, in part, because the former is more easily experimentally tested and costed, but it is also due to power structures in government, political ideology and skills gaps.
Targeted and timely change
Beyond targeting upstream changes, our review also found that interventions are more effective when they are:
- Targeted – to the specific needs and abilities of different groups.
- Combined – that is, they include downstream and upstream approaches, as well as addressing the multiple behavioural drivers and barriers.
- Timed – to when habits are malleable, such as household renovation or relocation, or when business leaders or farmers are making key investment decisions. (In psychology, this is termed “habit discontinuity”.)
Public engagement is also important for effective behaviour change interventions to both foster acceptance and address contextual factors or constraints to efficacy, our research suggests.
Interventions to change behaviour that are imposed on people without consultation risk being rejected, as seen with the “Gilets Jaunes” in France and London’s Ultra low emission zone (Ulez) expansion protests. Bringing the public into decision-making from the outset to scope a problem and identify solutions is more likely to lead to fairer and more acceptable outcomes.
Climate assemblies and juries are examples of how this is increasingly being achieved. Engagement can also help communicate the need for and benefits of climate action and therefore promote policy acceptance.
From our research over the years at the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST), we know that different approaches work better depending on the sector.
For example, adaptation behaviour change requires a stronger focus on information provision than mitigation actions, since there is little public awareness of why or how to adapt to climate risks.
For transport, congestion charging and reallocating road space from cars to less polluting modes – such as pedestrianisation and low-traffic neighbourhoods – are amongst the most effective ways of cutting car use. Additionally, frequent flyer levies enjoy public support so may be a fair and effective way of curbing aviation growth.
But, in both cases, there is a need for “carrots” as well as “sticks”. Alternatives to driving and flying must also be convenient, affordable and attractive if people are to switch to these lower-carbon modes, our research found.
For diet change, communicating the various benefits of low-carbon diets and carbon labelling – for health and the environment – has some effect. However, our research suggests lowering the price of vegetarian options and making them more available – including the default option – is far more effective.
In one simple, but effective, study, researchers doubled the proportion of vegetarian meals available in canteens – from one-in-four, to two-in-four options. This led to increases in vegetarian meal sales of up to 79%.
But there are still gaps in the evidence base. Little is known, for example, about how to encourage people to adopt climate-resilient behaviours or to reduce flying. More generally, we found little evaluation of real-world interventions.
Removing barriers
Our review concludes with core recommendations for using behavioural science in climate policy. These include identifying behavioural targets – for example, based on carbon impact and feasibility – engaging with the public and combining, timing and tailoring interventions.
While there are evidence gaps, our research shows that much is already known about how to foster low-carbon, climate-resilient behaviour change.
Moreover, the public wants to play their part in tackling climate change. Public concern about climate change has not been reduced by Covid-19 or the cost-of-living crisis – and most people in the UK and around the world agree that individual behaviour change is needed.
We found that the government now needs to use these insights from behavioural science to remove the barriers to behaviour change. This, in turn, will help accelerate the net-zero transition and adapt to climate risks.
The post Guest post: How human behaviour shapes effective climate policies appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Guest post: How human behaviour shapes effective climate policies
COP31 has finally kicked off in the sunny seaside resort of Antalya – at least for those lucky enough to have made it through the long queues snaking around the sprawling expo centre where the UN climate conference is taking place.
The joint COP presidents, Türkiye’s Murat Kurum and Australia’s Chris Bowen, have presented their priorities to fellow diplomats – including a new goal on electrification, the establishment of a just transition mechanism and better access to climate finance – before the negotiations begin in earnest.
Kurum announced that issues around the summit’s agenda had been resolved over the weekend. African countries had pushed for additional items on adaptation finance and trade, while Nepal wanted formal discussions on mountain issues in the wake of the devastating flooding disaster that struck the country.
Agreement was reached to drop the African request after late-night talks, with a view to continuing discussions on finance elsewhere such as in a dedicated work programme. Mountains and climate change will become a regular agenda item in the UN climate process with fresh dialogues planned on the topic.
COP31 Briefing: What to expect from the Antalya climate summit?
In his speech to the opening plenary, Australia’s environment minister Chris Bowen, who will preside over the negotiations in Antalya, outlined the COP co-presidents’ expectations for the cover decision that will offer a summary of the talks’ main achievements.
“There will be no surprises. This is not about duplicating negotiations. It will not be a lengthy political declaration, but a focused, practical, concrete response to the challenges and opportunities before us,” Bowen said.
It will be “a decision that reflects the urgency of the climate challenge and the enormous opportunities created by the global transition. One that gives confidence to governments, investors, businesses, communities that the world is moving faster and working together,” he added.
UN: El Niño unleashing heat from hottest oceans ever measured
As diplomats gather in Antalya, a new sobering update on the state of the Earth’s climate from the UN’s weather agency should focus minds.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the world’s oceans now hold more heat than ever measured. A rapidly strengthening El Niño is releasing some of that heat into the atmosphere, pushing temperatures higher on a planet already baked by human-caused climate change.
“El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts,” said the WMO’s Secretary General Celeste Saulo. “El Niño doesn’t add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release.”
The UN agency says 2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years on record globally. That would make 2023 to 2026 the four hottest years in 177 years of observations. The global average temperature from January to September was 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, just below 2024’s record of 1.55°C. The agency expects the final figure for the year to be higher as one of the strongest El Niños on record takes hold.
The current El Niño – a naturally occurring climate pattern – is expected to peak in December and continue until at least February 2027. As a result, the WMO expects global average temperatures to remain “exceptionally” high through late 2026 and into early 2027.
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National climate plans now promise half the emission cuts expected by UN
The US exit from the Paris Agreement and weak new pledges leave 2035 emissions just 6% below 2019 levels, against 12% projected last year -
Tensions set to flare over trade at COP31 as China makes it a priority
After difficult talks in Belém last year, trade is likely to remain a sticking point at COP31 despite Brazil’s efforts to contain the issue to a series of dialogues
Bill Hare, CEO of the global science and policy institute Climate Analytics, said that while El Niño will command the headlines, “no one should be in any doubt that the bigger villain is man-made climate change”.
According to the WMO, El Niño typically adds around 0.1–0.2°C to annual global average temperatures. That is a fraction of the warming of more than 1.4°C recorded last year, which is primarily caused by greenhouse gas emissions mainly from burning fossil fuels.
UN boss António Guterres said a “supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change”.
“Leaders must get serious by cutting emissions faster, accelerating a just transition from fossil fuels and delivering the finance and protection vulnerable countries need, “ he added.
At the COP31 opening ceremony, a Turkish promotional video struck a suitably apocalyptic note, implying that while nature and life on the planet will continue, humanity may not be a part of it unless countries choose to step up action to curb global warming.
IPCC chief urges governments to decide on report timeline
The chair of the world’s top climate science body has urged governments to take a long-delayed decision on when its next reports should be published so that they can steer climate action.
“Climate action without climate science is rather like a ship without a rudder,” said Jim Skea, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
He told the opening session of COP31 that the IPCC “faces operational challenges and reputational risks from the current impasse on the timeline for our three working group reports”.
Since 2024, governments have been unable to agree on whether the AR7 set of reports should be published before or after the next Global Stocktake (GST) of national climate plans in late 2028.
If the flagship reports are published before, they can feed into the agreed response to the second GST. At COP28, the first GST outcome included the landmark commitment to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.
Europe, small islands and the least developed countries, plus many Latin American and developed nations, want the IPCC to meet the deadline to inform the second GST.
But around a dozen developing countries plus Russia – led by India and Saudi Arabia – have argued that the reports should come later in order to allow for greater research input from the Global South.
After talks failed and were suspended last month, governments and IPCC scientists will try again to resolve the issue in virtual talks beginning on December 1.
Despite this disagreement among governments, Skea said the IPCC’s “scientific engine room is humming with activity” as scientists continue their work. But, as they are unpaid for their IPCC work, they are finding it increasingly difficult to find time for it alongside their “busy professional and personal lives”.
“In my early days in IPCC, we could plan our meetings literally years ahead. Now our authors don’t know what is expected of them in the early months of 2027,” he lamented.
The post COP31 Bulletin Day 1: Australia says cover decision won’t bring “surprises” appeared first on Climate Home News.
COP31 Bulletin Day 1: Australia says cover decision won’t bring “surprises”
Climate Change
FLIP OFF WOODSIDE TO SAVE SCOTT REEF: Greenpeace, Michael Caton, Thinkerbell mobilise Australia to challenge gas project at Scott Reef
6 November 2026
Greenpeace Australia Pacific has joined forces with Thinkerbell and iconic Australian actor Michael Caton on a major public movement and behaviour change initiative to save Scott Reef, calling on Australians to “flip off” gas corporation Woodside. The company plans to drill for gas at Australia’s largest oceanic reef, home to vulnerable green sea turtles, endangered pygmy blue whales, and thousands of marine species, off the coast of Western Australia.
WATCH THE FULL VIDEO HERE
At the heart of the collaboration is somebody who knows a thing or two about fighting off corporations to protect a home: Michael Caton. Set in a courtroom, Caton gives his voice to a voiceless inhabitant, a green sea turtle, and together they invite the public to show their support to save Scott Reef.
Designed to shift public behaviour and drive national debate, the movement asks the public to tag their MPs – applying direct political pressure on Environment Minister Murray Watt and Prime Minister Albanese Albanese to “flip off” Woodside’s dirty gas project, which would see up to 57 toxic wells drilled around Scott Reef off the coast of Western Australia.
Voiced by Michael Caton and set to a soundtrack provided by Radiohead, the narrative centres on our hero turtle defending her home from corporate overreach in a courtroom showdown. As the turtle defiantly flips her flippers at Woodside, Michael Caton calls on everyday Australians to take a stand and help save her home.
Michael Caton said: “I’m proud to lend my voice to Greenpeace to help save Scott Reef. The marine life out there can’t speak up, so we need to. Some things are too precious to risk.”
Glenn Walker, Head of Nature at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, added: “Woodside’s dirty gas project at Scott Reef, Australia’s largest oceanic reef, is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, threatening thousands of species, including the extremely vulnerable green sea turtles that nest there. By literally flipping off Woodside and Big Gas, Aussies are cutting through corporate spin and sending an unignorable message to Environment Minister Murray Watt and the Albanese government: save Scott Reef.”
Adam Ferrier, co-founder of Thinkerbell, said: “You can fight a corporation in the courtroom forever, but the real power to deliver lasting protection rests in parliament. Right now, our MPs hold an extraordinary opportunity to safeguard Scott Reef for generations to come. I’m proudly from WA, and I know how much the natural environment means to the people and economy of Western Australia. I’m also sure Woodside wants to do the right thing, and with enough public support and government action we’ll together save Scott Reef.
Paul Swann, Chief Creative Tinker at Thinkerbell notes: “When the stakes are this high, polite ads don’t work. You need an unignorable provocation that galvanises people and puts the pressure squarely where it belongs, on our leaders in Canberra. This isn’t just about protecting a reef; it’s about holding power to account.”
Greenpeace has been campaigning to stop Woodside’s dirty gas plans for years, increasing pressure on the Australian government to save Scott Reef from becoming an industrialised gas zone. From actions aboard Woodside’s gas platform to cinemas across Australia, Greenpeace isn’t backing off in their advocacy to save Scott Reef.
Rolling out across OOH, digital, social and cinema with an interactive landing page, this project will be amplified by high-profile figures urging Australians to take action, tag their MPs, and defend Scott Reef. The movement combines cinematic storytelling with organic social mobilsation and earned media, planned via Thinkerbell’s Alchemy model to drive real behaviour change and impact.
Marking their first Australian tour in 15 years, English rock band Radiohead will play 16 arena shows across Perth, Melbourne and Sydney in May and June 2027. A $2 donation is included in every ticket price with proceeds going to Greenpeace Australia Pacific and the Australian Marine Conservation Society. Radiohead will match the final amount raised.
ENDS
WATCH NOW:
FOR ASSETS OR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:
Adam Ferrier | 0413 633 344 | adamferrier@thinkerbell.com
Kimberley Bernard | 0407 581 404 | kbernard@greenpeace.org
ABOUT THINKERBELL
Thinkerbell is a 9-year-old independent creative company. We practise Measured Magic – the coming together of marketing science and hardcore creativity – to help our clients build their brands and change behaviour.
ABOUT GREENPEACE
Greenpeace Australia Pacific is a global independent campaigning organisation that uses peaceful protest and creative confrontation to expose environmental problems and promote solutions that are essential to a green and peaceful future.