Global sea ice extent is at a record low for this time of year, due to rapid Antarctic sea ice melt and below-average Arctic coverage, new data reveals.
Antarctic sea ice extent has been tracking at record-low levels for almost the entire year, making headlines around the world.
It has now reached its annual maximum for the year, clocking in at 16.96m km2 on 10 September, according to provisional data from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC).
This is the smallest Antarctic sea ice maximum in the 45-year satellite record by “a wide margin”, the NSIDC says, and one of the earliest.
Antarctic conditions this year have been “truly exceptional” and “completely outside the bounds of normality”, one expert tells Carbon Brief.
Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice extent reached its minimum for the year at 4.23m square kilometres (km2) on 19 September.
This is the sixth-lowest minimum on record and 1.99m km2 below the average maximum recorded over 1981-2010.
Record low global sea ice
Arctic sea ice has been melting for months, driven by long sunny days and warm temperatures. But, as winter approaches, the melt season has now come to an end. Arctic sea ice reached its minimum for the year on 19 September and is now growing towards its winter peak.
At the Earth’s other pole, the opposite is happening. Antarctic sea ice – which has been growing since February – reached its winter peak on 10 September. Its melt season has now begun.
Using satellite data, scientists track the seasonal growth and melt of sea ice, allowing them to determine the size of the annual minima and maxima. Recording the sea ice extent at each pole – the area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice coverage – is a key way to monitor the “health” of Antarctic sea ice.
The plots below show Arctic (left) and Antarctic (right) sea ice extent over June-October. Sea ice extent in 2023 is shown in blue, the 1981-2010 average in grey and other years in other colours.

In the Antarctic, sea ice extent has been tracking at record-low levels for months. Dr Ella Gilbert – a regional climate modeller at the British Antarctic Survey – tells Carbon Brief that Antarctic conditions this year have been “truly exceptional” and “completely outside the bounds of normality”.
Global sea ice extent – the sum of sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic – has also been tracking at a record low for months.
The plot below shows the combined sea ice extent for the Arctic and Antarctic. The red line indicates sea ice extent in 2023, yellow shows 2016 and other blue lines indicate other years dating back until 1979 when the satellite record began.

‘Exceptional’ Antarctic melt
The Antarctic has attracted widespread media attention throughout this year. In February, Antarctic sea ice extent reached its summer minimum extent of 1.79m km2, setting the record for a second straight year.
Commenting on the new record low minimum – the third record to be set in seven years – one study warned that the Antarctic had entered a “new state”, in which the underlying processes controlling Antarctic sea ice coverage “may have altered”.
As the weather cooled in March, Antarctic sea ice “expanded at a fairly typical pace”, according to the NSIDC. Nonetheless, March 2023 average sea ice extent was the second lowest on record.
Antarctic sea ice extent remained “sharply below average throughout” April, clocking in with the second lowest daily extent on record by the end of the month.
Gilbert tells Carbon Brief that Antarctic sea ice “never really recovered” from its record-low February minimum, thanks to a “slow freeze-up”.
Antarctic sea ice grew only 2.87m km2 over May 2023 – considerably less than the average growth of 3.25m km2. Air temperatures were up to 4C above average over the Weddell sea during the month, but around 4C below average over the Amusden sea.
By 31 May, Antarctic sea ice extent was again at a record low extent, clocking in at around 700,000 km2 smaller than the previous daily record lows recorded in 1980, 2017 and 2019. Sea ice continued to track at “extreme record low levels” throughout June, according to the NSIDC.
The graphic below shows Antarctic daily sea ice extent in 2023 (red) compared to previous years over 1979-2023.

Dr Zachary Labe is a postdoctoral researcher working at NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program at Princeton University, and a Carbon Brief contributing editor.
He tells Carbon Brief that the record lows are linked to “both oceanic and atmospheric factors”, especially related to the strength of the Amundsen Sea Low – a low pressure trough named after the sea off West Antarctica that it typically sits above.
“Exceptionally low” sea ice extent continued into July, with the NSIDC noting that Antarctic ice extent as of mid-July was “more than 2.6 km2 below the 1981-2010 average, an area nearly as large as Argentina”. Antarctic sea ice extent was particularly low in the northern Weddell Sea, western Ross Sea and southern Bellingshausen Sea.
Antarctic sea ice continued to grow slowly as the season progressed. Average extent was at a record low in July, clocking in at 1.50m km2 below the previous record low set in 2022, the NSIDC noted. It added at the time:
“There is speculation that the Antarctic sea ice system has entered a new regime, in which ocean heat is now playing a stronger role in limiting autumn and winter ice growth and enhancing spring and summer melt.”
The graphic below shows Antarctic sea ice thickness in July 2023 (left) and the difference in sea ice thickness between July 2023 the 1981-2010 July average (right). In the right-hand map, the areas of deepest red show where sea ice thickness in July this year was below average.

By the beginning of August, Antarctic sea ice growth began to level off. On 15 August, Antarctic sea ice extent was 1.73m km2 below the previous record low for the date, which was set in 1986.
Antarctic sea ice growth then picked up as the month progressed. It continued to track at a record low, but increased more than average in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas as well as in the Pacific Ocean.
On 10 September, Antarctic sea ice likely reached its annual maximum extent of 16.96m km2. This is the lowest sea ice maximum in the 45-year by “a wide margin”, the NSIDC says. The previous record-low Antarctic minimum extent was 17.99m km2.
It adds that this year’s winter peak is one of the earliest on record – 13 days earlier than the 1981-2010 average date of 23 September.
The plot below shows Antarctic sea ice extent on 10 September, with the median sea ice extent for 1981-2010 shown by the orange line.

Gilbert notes that scientists have “no evidence of comparably low winter extent in the satellite record, nor in reconstructions of the last century or so”, adding:
“Given how variable sea ice is, it’s hard to say for certain whether this is the beginning of a longer-term shift towards a new regime in Antarctic sea ice. However, climate models predict that Antarctic sea ice will decline, and I think it’s only a matter of time until we see the signature of climate warming in Antarctic sea ice trends.”
The record low Antarctic sea ice levels have received widespread attention in the media in recent months, with BBC News, the Times and the Daily Telegraph calling the record-low sea ice levels “mind–blowing” and “dramatic”.
The impact on wildlife has also caused alarm. At the end of August, multiple outlets reported on a new study that found thousands of emperor penguin chicks in Antarctica had died because of record-low sea ice levels in 2022.
And new research warns that the Antarctic is also warming twice as fast as the global average. (It is already well established that the Arctic has warmed four times faster than the global average over the past four decades.)
Arctic minimum
At the Earth’s other pole, the season has been less eventful.
The Arctic reached its winter peak on 6 March 2023 with a sea ice extent of 14.62m km2 – the fifth smallest winter peak in the 45-year satellite record. This point marked the beginning of the melt season for the year.
Arctic sea ice extent declined in the week following the March peak, but cool weather nearly halted the ice melt during the second half of the month. Slow Arctic ice melt continued throughout April with “only” 20,600 km2 of ice lost per day on average, according to the NSIDC.
Slower-than-average sea ice melt persisted throughout much of May. Air temperatures over the Arctic ocean were around 1-4C below average throughout the month – except for over the Barents, Kara, and Beaufort Seas, where temperatures were 2-6C above average.
The map below shows the regional seas that make up the Arctic Ocean.

Sea ice melt sped up as the season progressed, resulting in faster-than-average melting throughout June. By the end of that month, average Arctic sea ice extent was 10.96m km2 – the 13th lowest for the time of year in the satellite record.
Arctic sea ice extent declined at a near-average pace throughout July, clocking in at the 12th lowest in the satellite record for the time of year.
However, record-breaking heat swept across the world in August, causing Arctic sea ice melt to accelerate, the NSIDC noted at the time.
Temperatures in the first half of August were “below average north of Greenland, above average in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas, and considerably above average in the Kara and Barents Seas,” the NSIDC said.
The maps below shows absolute air temperatures in the Arctic in August 2023 (left) and the difference in air temperature between August 2023 the 1981-2010 August average (right). In the right-hand map, the areas of deepest red show where August this year was substantially hotter than average.

By the middle of August, sea ice extent was near average on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, but “well below average” in most other regions other than a tongue of ice extending toward the coast in the East Siberian Sea, the NSIDC said:
“The Northwest Passage appears to be on the verge of becoming nearly ice free, particularly the southern route, known as Amundsen’s route.”
As is typical of August, the pace of sea ice loss slowed during the second half of the month as cooler conditions set in.
The left-hand map below shows Arctic sea ice concentration – a measure of the amount of sea ice in a given area, usually described as a percentage – during August 2023. The areas shaded white indicate a high concentration.
The right-hand map shows the difference between this August and the 1981-2010 average, where red indicates a lower sea ice concentration in 2023 than the baseline.

Labe tells Carbon Brief that there have been some “particularly large regional extremes” around the Arctic this season.
For example, he highlights the “massive amount of open water on the Pacific side of the Arctic, which stretches from the Beaufort Sea to the East Siberian Sea”. Sea ice extent in this region dropped to the second lowest in the satellite-era, beaten only in the year 2012, he says.
Labe adds that within the main Arctic ice pack, there are “many areas of open water” this year, indicating that the ice is not very compacted. By mid September, sea-ice area – a measure of how compacted the ice is – reached its fourth lowest for the time of year, he says.
He also notes that sea ice was “significantly thinner than average in the Beaufort sea region” in August.
Arctic sea ice extent reached its minimum for the year at 4.23m square kilometres (km2), on 19 September, according to the NSIDC. This is the sixth lowest in a satellite record – 1.99m km2 smaller than the average minimum over 1981-2010 .
Days before the minimum was announced, the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership published a review paper on Arctic sea ice. It found that the September minimum Arctic sea ice extent has reduced by around 12% per decade compared to the 1981-2010 average.
It added:
“More than half the observed loss of Arctic sea ice can be directly attributed to warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.”
Labe tells Carbon Brief that the Arctic today is “radically different” than it was only two or three decades ago. “This is due to human-caused climate change,” he says.

According to the NSIDC, the 17 lowest Arctic sea ice minima on record have occurred in the past 17 years.
The post ‘Exceptional’ Antarctic melt drives months of record-low global sea ice cover appeared first on Carbon Brief.
‘Exceptional’ Antarctic melt drives months of record-low global sea ice cover
Climate Change
New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation
New Zealand’s parliament has adopted a controversial new law blocking a whole avenue of climate litigation and shutting down its most advanced corporate lawsuit, which has been blamed by the government for shaking business confidence and investment.
The Climate Change Response (Tort Liability) Amendment Bill, expected to take effect in the coming days after it is formally signed by the Governor-General, prevents all current and future civil claims for climate loss or harm under tort law.
Justice minister Paul Goldsmith said last week that the aim was to give businesses “certainty around their climate change obligations”, noting it would not alter the government’s responsibilities under the Climate Change Response Act 2002 nor business obligations under the Emissions Trading Scheme.
“Our response to climate change is best managed by the Government at a national level and not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” he added in a statement.
Such litigation, he said, “risks developing a new regime that contradicts the framework Parliament has already enacted” to tackle climate change.
Goldsmith singled out a key domestic climate lawsuit brought by Northland iwi leader and activist Mike Smith against six big companies: dairy firms Fonterra and Dairy Holdings, energy firms Genesis Energy and Z Energy, New Zealand Steel and coal mining firm BT Mining. A seventh original defendant, Channel Infrastructure, was dropped after it permanently decommissioned its Marsden Point oil refinery.
Smith argued that these companies had caused him harm under public nuisance and negligence law, as well as a third breach of a duty to cease contributing to climate change that has yet to be tested domestically. He did not seek financial compensation, instead asking for the companies to immediately stop emitting or contributing to net greenhouse gas emissions.
In one of the most advanced corporate climate accountability lawsuits in the world, a trial had been scheduled for April 2027 after the Supreme Court unanimously allowed the case to continue.
Corporate lobbying in the shadows
Smith described the passing of the bill as “deeply concerning”, particularly as it coincided with the Supreme Court hearing another of his climate lawsuits. In that case, Smith v Attorney-General, he argues that the government’s response to climate change and its impacts on Māori communities in particular breaches rights to life and culture.
“That timing raises profound questions about the separation of powers and the rule of law,” said Smith. “Whatever one’s view of the merits of these cases, it is deeply troubling when parliament intervenes to remove a legal pathway while the courts are actively considering fundamental questions about climate responsibility, rights and the crown’s obligations.”
The bill – which says that no person (including the government) can be found liable in tort for emissions-related climate change effects – followed major lobbying efforts by the companies defending themselves in Smith’s lawsuit. They outlined a proposed legal amendment in a briefing note to the government in 2024.
The centre-right government has been fiercely criticised over its lack of transparency in relation to this lobbying activity. The national ombudsman recently found that the Prime Minister’s Office effectively withheld information requested by the Environmental Law Initiative about meetings, discussions and conversations regarding Smith’s case.
Green groups fail to stop bill
The bill sparked huge concern among environmental campaigners in New Zealand and elsewhere. Greenpeace Aotearoa called it a “shocking abuse of executive power” and the vast majority of submissions to a parliamentary inquiry said it should be rejected.
But in the end, it was adopted with little resistance, moving relatively smoothly through parliament, passing its third reading by 67 votes to 53. Sam Bookman, climate law lecturer at Melbourne Law School, told Climate Home News he was not surprised by this, given that the coalition government has a secure majority.
A complaint has been made to the UN special rapporteur on climate change and human rights by Smith, the National Iwi Chairs Forum Pou Tikanga and youth coalition Climate Clinic Aotearoa over what they see as the government’s heavy-handed approach. Smith is also challenging the new law in yet another lawsuit.
“Pathetic”: New Zealand plans to barely cut emissions between 2030 and 2035
Bookman thinks it “very unlikely” that such a challenge will succeed, noting that New Zealand’s constitution is firmly anchored in parliamentary sovereignty.
But the expert in climate law does not see the bill as the end of legal action in the country, noting that New Zealand has a “sophisticated climate litigation landscape with a growing number of specialist and experienced lawyers and NGOs”.
The country is also approaching its next general election in November, and some opposition parties have pledged to restore access to the courts if elected.
Amanda Larsson, global project lead on agriculture for Greenpeace International, said: “This law deserves to be tested, and I strongly encourage the international climate litigation community to unite and help defend New Zealanders’ fundamental right to hold polluters accountable before this becomes a global blueprint.”
Copycat legislation on the rise
New Zealand’s move is part of a small but growing legislative effort to shut down climate litigation around the world.
In the US, Republican politicians introduced legislation in the House and Senate in April that would shield fossil fuel firms from climate liability lawsuits. Similar laws have already been passed at state level in Tennessee, Utah, Iowa and Louisiana.
The German state of Bavaria has put forward a similar proposal to the Federal Council, aiming to block private climate claims as well as the recognition and enforcement of foreign judgments imposing such liability. There are also proposals to limit available remedies and actions in the Netherlands and Belgium.
UN General Assembly backs “climate obligations” set by world’s top court
Bookman said he expects more efforts to counter climate damages litigation and advised plaintiffs to think about how to respond, including drawing on broader support in opposing them.
“Even though it’s very hard for plaintiffs to win these types of cases, companies are very eager to avoid the expense, embarrassment and political accountability that come even with unsuccessful lawsuits,” he said.
The post New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation appeared first on Climate Home News.
New Zealand moves to protect business with law curtailing climate litigation
Climate Change
Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry
Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara is the Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), an Indonesia-based economic think tank. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat is the Director of the China-Indonesia desk at CELIOS.
Indonesia produces around 60% of the world’s nickel, a metal used to manufacture batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) – more than any other country in the world. But in 2026, the government sharply reduced how much of its nickel can be extracted from the ground.
Production quotas were reduced by around 40% this year compared to 2025. Weda Bay, the largest nickel mine on Earth, had its allowance cut by more than 70% and exhausted its full-year quota by the end of May, halting mining entirely; it cannot resume large-scale extraction until next year unless regulators grant an extension.
The policy has sparked a vivid debate in Indonesian policy circles: how can the country shift its strategy from a decade of mining vast quantities of cheap nickel to producing a high-value and low-carbon material that the rest of the world wants for EV batteries.
The cuts aren’t a silver bullet to clean up Indonesia’s nickel industry, whose smelters are powered by coal – the most polluting fossil fuels. But alongside stricter enforcement of environmental rules, it is one side of efforts to produce more sustainable nickel for a premium.
Restricting Indonesia’s nickel output
Production quotas were introduced to stop the collapse of nickel prices because of oversupply in the market. Prices had fallen more than 40% in 2023 alone and kept sliding as Indonesian supply kept growing, hitting a four-year low of around $13,900 a ton in late 2025.
Critics called the recent tightening of production quotas proof that Indonesia’s nickel strategy has failed, arguing that the industry shouldn’t need to throttle its own output to survive. But when assessed against what the policy was supposed to do – push up nickel prices – it has worked. Prices jumped to $20,000 a ton in May, the highest since 2024.
Chinese industry groups representing companies that have invested billions to mine and refine the country’s nickel were furious, warning Indonesia’s president Prabowo Subianto that the cuts put $50 billion worth of investment at risk. But much of that Chinese capital is sunk into smelters and processing plants built specifically to run on Indonesian ore, and cannot simply be moved elsewhere. That gives Jakarta more room to hold its ground than the warning suggests.
Stronger environmental enforcement
Since the start of the year, Indonesia’s forestry task force has seized more than four million hectares of land from mines and plantations operating illegally in protected forests, collecting over two trillion rupiah ($113 million) in fines.
This included 148 hectares seized from Weda Bay for lacking a forestry permit. The share of nickel produced from illegal small-scale mining also fell from about a quarter in 2022 to roughly 10% by 2024.
The crackdown responds to serious environmental damages in the nickel industry. On Obi Island, a waste pond collapsed after heavy rain in June 2025, flooding three villages and killing a resident. Internal company tests found chromium-6 – a carcinogen – in the water, in quantities far above the legal limit. The footprint of another mine near Raja Ampat, which is home to some of the world’s richest coral reefs, grew 60-fold in just eight years.

The market is responding to early cleanup efforts. Low-carbon nickel now sells for a real premium, roughly $18,800 to $19,300 a ton compared with $17,900 to $18,300 otherwise, as carmakers seek to source cleaner materials to comply with the European Union’s new emissions rules for imports.
In turn, this is incentivising the industry to do more to green its operations. Vale Indonesia’s smelter in South Sulawesi now runs almost entirely on hydropower, for example.
None of this addresses coal use, however. Major Indonesian nickel producers still emitted an estimated 15 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2023. Indonesia may be cracking down on illegal mining and rewarding cleaner producers but it is still running its mines on the dirtiest fuel available.
Unequal benefits
For Indonesia to truly benefit from producing cleaner and high-value nickel, it needs to reap the economic benefits too. Although the industry has boosted the country’s economic growth, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
Konawe in Southeast Sulawesi is home to a major smelting complex. Growth in the district jumped from 6% to 22% between 2015 and 2023, driven almost entirely by the nickel industry, according to a study by the Lowy Institute study. At the same time, poverty levels increased slightly and unemployment remained unchanged.
In Halmahera, another epicentre of the nickel industry, spending by the poorest fifth grew just 5% between 2019 and 2022, compared with 28% for the wealthiest fifth, according to a separate study.
Part of the reason for this inequality is the system for transferring mining royalties to district authorities where the mines are located. In theory, they are entitled to the largest share. But in practice, payments are delayed, companies routinely dispute what they owe and royalties are pooled and distributed across a larger area.
The Natural Resource Governance Institute has found that decentralisation handed local governments power to approve new mines faster than they could build their capacity to manage them. Higher output raises national income on paper, but local governments remain constrained by fiscal rules and infrastructure costs that scale with mining.
None of this makes the 2026 quota cuts a mistake. Indonesia has every right to defend its pricing power over a resource it controls. But limiting extraction isn’t going to fix underlying issues around environmental enforcement and revenue-sharing. That requires rules that are consistently enforced, royalties that reach communities living by the mines, and a plan to wean smelters off coal.
The post Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry appeared first on Climate Home News.
Indonesia’s nickel production cuts are not enough to create a sustainable industry
Climate Change
Risk of “catastrophic” oil spill reaching Kimberley coast found in Woodside’s Scott Reef gas drilling plans
SYDNEY, Monday 24 August 2026 – New analysis of Woodside modelling released by Greenpeace Australia Pacific and Environs Kimberley has revealed the oil and gas corporation’s plans to drill at Scott Reef could cause an oil spill up to 30 times bigger than the 2009 Montara disaster, impacting the Kimberley coastline and reaching as far as Indonesia.
The new analysis details the “catastrophic” oil spill risk put to environmental regulators for approval by Woodside in its Browse to North West Shelf Project (Browse) plans, the worst-case scenario being a blowout directly below Scott Reef, polluting whale migratory pathways and covering isolated turtle nesting ground with oil condensate.
An FOI application (F348) revealed the federal environment department (DCCEEW) asked offshore oil and gas regulator NOPSEMA to look into the oil spill risk in 2025. NOPSEMA’s response to the application refused access to its report, and one document shows DCCEEW sought further advice this year.
Greenpeace and Environs Kimberley are calling on the Federal Government to publicly release the NOPSEMA report given the risk of an uncontrolled release of oil condensate from directly below Scott Reef.
Hannah Schuch, Senior Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, said: “Woodside is aware that drilling at Scott Reef risks a massive oil spill that would have severe, far-reaching consequences. It appears environmental regulators are aware too.
“The state and federal governments need to take this risk from Woodside’s drilling plans seriously, as they could end up allowing the worst oil spill in Australian history.
“The pygmy blue whales that migrate up and down the WA coast with their newborns each year could be swimming and feeding in toxic, oil-slicked water. Woodside’s proposal to drill at Scott Reef is an environmental disaster waiting to happen, and the WA and federal governments have one surefire way to prevent catastrophe — reject Browse.”
Martin Prichard, Executive Director at Environs Kimberley, said: “A catastrophic oil spill by Woodside would be disastrous not just for marine life in the area but also for the Kimberley’s $500 million tourism industry.
“The state and federal governments will see five marine parks on the Kimberley coast included in the risk area of a catastrophic Woodside oil spill.
“The Montara oil spill was disastrous for West Timor with the toxic oil destroying seaweed farmers’ livelihoods. The Kimberley dodged a bullet with Montara, we were lucky the spill didn’t head our way. Myself and a crew flew over the Montara oil spill and followed it as far as we could. It was like a scene from a disaster movie.”
After the WA Environmental Protection Authority deemed Browse “unacceptable” due, in part, to oil spill risk, Woodside submitted a mitigation plan based on technology that has never been used “in anger”, a weakness stated in an independent expert review of the plan.
Professor Richard Steiner, independent oil spill expert, said: “A large offshore spill is impossible to effectively contain or recover. Historically, only 2-6% of total spill volume is recovered and the ecological injury from the release of toxic hydrocarbons in the sea can be severe, extensive, and long-term.
“Here in Alaska, government research concludes that several marine populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, including whales, fish, and seabirds, are still not recovering today, 37 years later. We should expect similar long-term ecological impacts in Western Australia if there were to be a major oil spill. The only sure way to avoid the risk of a catastrophic marine oil spill is to not develop oil and gas projects in marine environments.”
-ENDS-
Media contact
Emma Sangalli on emma.sangalli@greenpeace.org or 0431 513 465
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