Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
This week
Balmy new year
NEW RECORD: Last month was the warmest January recorded on Earth, the Financial Times reported, based on data from the EU’s earth observation agency. This “surprise[ed] scientists who expected the cooling La Niña weather cycle in the tropical Pacific to slow almost two years of record-high temperatures”, the newspaper said. January 2025 was also the third-hottest month ever recorded.
2C ‘DEAD’?: The aim to limit global temperature rise to “well below” 2C is “dead”, said veteran climate scientist Prof James Hansen, after publishing an analysis on “underestimated” warming, the Guardian reported. The analysis focused on areas of “deep scientific uncertainty”, Carbon Brief science contributor Dr Zeke Hausfather told the newspaper, and, in his opinion, “represent[s] something closer to a worst-case opinion”.
NORTH POLE: A separate Guardian article noted that temperatures north of Svalbard in the Arctic Ocean soared more than 20C above average last Sunday. This put “actual temperatures close to ice’s melting point of 0C”, the newspaper said. Mika Rantanen, a scientist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, told the newspaper that it was “probably not the most extreme ever observed, but still at the upper edge of what can happen in the Arctic”.
Trump tariffs and funding cuts
TRADE THREATS: US president Donald Trump sent ripples through global markets by adding a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, CNN reported. China retaliated with 10% tariffs on US “crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement cars and pickup trucks”, plus 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied “natural” gas, Sky News said. Trump’s tariff threats against Mexico and Canada were paused for 30 days, the Associated Press noted.
CHANGES: Trump nominated Neil Jacobs, an ally previously “cited for misconduct”, as the new head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NPR reported. Elsewhere, 168 employees working on environmental justice programmes at the Environmental Protection Agency were placed on administrative leave, Reuters reported. Separately, the Guardian found that mentions of climate change were removed from the websites of “several major” US government departments.
FUNDING CUT FALLOUT: Hundreds of climate programmes funded by the US government “risk disappearing” after the Trump administration’s “attack” on the US aid agency, Climate Home News reported. USAID is a “major provider of grant-based finance for climate action in the global south”, the outlet noted. Amid the continued fallout from other federal funding cuts, Science reported: “Many scientists remain in limbo at thousands of academic institutions and nongovernmental agencies that rely on federal research grants.”
Around the world
LATE PLANS: Major polluters such as India and the EU are expected to miss the UN deadline to submit climate plans for 2035 by 10 February, the Financial Times reported. UN climate chief Simon Stiell said latecomers must submit plans “by September”.
QUEENSLAND DOWNPOUR: Up to 1.5m of rain fell in Queensland, Australia last weekend in a deluge likely to have been exacerbated by climate change, the Sydney Morning Herald said. Scientists linked the rain to a “prolonged marine heatwave in the Coral Sea”, but noted that an official attribution study has not been carried out.
UPHEAVAL: Indonesia’s special envoy for climate and energy said the Paris Agreement is “no longer relevant” for the country, Antara News said. Argentina is analysing the impact of withdrawing from Paris and other agreements after announcing it will follow Trump in exiting the World Health Organization, Ámbito said.
OIL AND GAS: The Guardian reported on “growing internal backlash” against UK prime minister Keir Starmer’s potential plans to approve the controversial Rosebank oilfield. Starmer allegedly assured executives at energy company Equinor, Rosebank’s lead developer, of his support for the project, according to the Daily Telegraph.
ROLLBACK: Equinor announced plans to halve renewable investment and increase oil and gas production by 10% over the next two years, BBC News said.
COLLABORATION: An editorial in the Global Times, a major state-supporting newspaper in China, said that the nation and the EU should “strengthen cooperation” on climate change and “lead the rest of the world on a cooperative path of green development” in light of Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
$158
The usual price for a night in an apartment in Belém, Brazil.
$15,266
The currently offered “surreal” price for this November when the city will host COP30, the Associated Press reported.
Latest climate research
Rat numbers are on the rise in cities such as Washington DC, New York and Amsterdam due to climate change and other factors, according to a Science Advances study.
Analysis in PLOS Climate found that some of the countries most vulnerable to climate change received disproportionately less adaptation-focused global government aid over a recent 10-year period.
Strategies around energy demand could reduce emissions from buildings by 51-85% and transport by 37-91% by 2050, compared to a “current policies scenario”, research in Nature Energy said.
“Natural” world heritage sites, such as the Galápagos Islands, Serengeti national park and the Great Barrier Reef, could be exposed to multiple climate extremes by the end of the century, a new study covered by Carbon Brief found. The maps show which sites will face climate impacts under low (top left), intermediate (top right), high (bottom left) and very high (bottom right) warming pathways. The dots are coloured red if the site will face climate impacts from heat, drought or extreme rainfall by the year 2100.
Spotlight
Climate negotiations in the West End
This week, Carbon Brief speaks to the writers of Kyoto, a new London play dramatising the signing of the first global agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions at COP3.
Carbon Brief readers are likely all-too familiar with the annual climate COP summits, where delegates from almost every country in the world negotiate on climate action.
In 1997, for the first time, developed nations agreed to set binding targets to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Now, a play in London’s West End delves into how this deal – the Kyoto Protocol – came about.
It was written by Joe Murphy and Joe Roberston, the playwrights behind The Jungle, a hit show set in a refugee camp in Calais, France.
Kyoto emerged from a desire to write about climate change in a “compelling way that would engage people”, Robertson told Carbon Brief:
“We had been talking a lot about the disagreeable nature of society at the moment and so we were looking for stories of agreement. The question of how to write about climate, and the search for a story of agreement, sort of fused together in finding and diving into the world of Kyoto and the protocol.”
Murphy said this kicked off two years of research and discussions with people involved in the Kyoto talks. He added:
“[We] spoke to incredible diplomats and delegates and scientists and lawyers and world leaders who, almost unanimously, were desperate to talk about this time and spoke with such emotion and pride.
“As artists trying to grapple with a subject that often despairs people, or disempowers people, or disengages people, we realised this was a route into the subject that could actually genuinely be dramatic, could genuinely have jeopardy.”
The Kyoto cast at the Soho Place theatre in January 2025. Source: Manuel Harlan.
Kyoto – whose lead character is oil lobbyist Don Pearlman – is not short on drama as delegates fight about the placement of brackets and commas in the negotiating text to the bitter end. In one chaotic scene, translators go home after talks run too late, leaving negotiators in a mess of language.
The show also highlights how the real COP3 chair, Raúl Estrada-Oyuela from Argentina, “went out of his way to talk to everyone” in search of agreement, Robertson said:
“He understood that there are all sorts of influences on the conference floor…He would talk about the zone of agreement. With certain people, the zone of agreement was tiny, almost invisible…But you can expand out once you’ve established something that’s commonplace.”
The writers are working on two more COP plays – focused on Copenhagen in 2009 and Paris in 2015. Robertson said they are “really excited to think about how to represent those two very different conferences – each a stepping stone, it feels, to where we are today”.
Murphy added that they want to see more collaboration between science, activism, politics and arts to “tell these stories in really exciting ways”, saying:
“It’s thrilling and I think there’s so much more to do.”
Kyoto runs until 3 May 2025 at Soho Place in London.
Watch, read, listen
SPOKEN WORD: The Third Pole Podcast from Dialogue Earth explored the impact of climate change on Indigenous languages in Pakistan’s remote mountain communities.
CRITICAL MINERALS: Issues around mining for cobalt – a mineral “essential to decarbonisation” – in the Democratic Republic of the Congo employ “new forms of old colonial practices”, researchers wrote in the Conversation.
CLEAN POWER: The head of the UK’s mission control for clean power, Chris Stark, discussed the UK’s energy and climate goals on the Bloomberg Zero podcast.
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org. This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
After the United States announced last week it would withdraw from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), effectively slashing more than a fifth of its core budget, the organisation’s head said it could “manage” the US exit, as top officials argued the energy transition is “unstoppable”.
Speaking to reporters at IRENA’s 16th Assembly in Abu Dhabi, Director-General Francesco La Camera said the US had yet to formally notify the agency it would be leaving. IRENA’s statute says withdrawal of a member country takes effect at the end of the year in which it is notified.
Until that point, they remain a member with all its rights, including the right to vote, but also “the duty to pay”, La Camera added.
The decision will make the US the only country to leave the UNFCCC, with the UN climate chief calling it a “colossal own goal” that will harm the US economy
The surge in employment linked to clean energy equipment and installation is slowing as large-scale plants and increasing automation require less labour
Even as it faces international condemnation over the Gaza war, Israel is working to boost natural gas exports and offshore exploration to strengthen its strategic and regional ties
On Sunday, IRENA’s member countries – around 170 in total – adopted a budget for the coming two years, which shows the US is expected to contribute 22% of IRENA’s core funding, with its share amounting to nearly $5.7 million for 2026.
La Camera said IRENA is already talking to governments and the private sector to fill the potential financial hole if the US does not deliver on its financial obligations, as has been the case in previous years with the UN climate secretariat and the Green Climate Fund.
“We know that some of these usual donors are considering to put something in our budget – we are also trying to get some money from the companies that are part of our initiatives… and we will see other ways that we can pursue,” he added. “I know that we can manage one way or another.”
During country statements made on Sunday afternoon, which were closed to the media, there had been expectations that China might step up to close the gap, but that did not happen.
The United Arab Emirates, Germany and other European nations are substantial government donors to IRENA, although the agency’s core budget has barely risen since 2018, documents show. That has limited its ability to expand its activities even as demand rises across developing countries and small island states for greater technical and policy support to boost renewables.
La Camera noted that, following the US decision to pull out under Donald Trump, IRENA’s council may need to propose amendments to its approved budget for 2026-2027 ahead of its next meeting in May.
Melford Nicholas, minister of information technologies, utilities and energy for Antigua and Barbuda, who is also a newly elected vice president of IRENA, told Climate Home News the US move would “not be an insignificant development” but Europeans had indicated they could help make up the shortfall.
Clean energy for “opportunity and necessity”
At the opening session of the two-day assembly, La Camera and other top officials affirmed the importance of renewable energy as the best choice for energy and economic security at a time of rising geopolitical tensions driven by fossil fuel interests.
Selwin Hart,special adviser to the UN Secretary-General on Climate Action and Just Transition, said the world is clearly changing its energy system to clean sources “not out of idealism, but out of opportunity and necessity”.
He noted that three out of four people live in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels, exposing them to geopolitical shocks, volatile prices and balance of payment pressures.
Examples of this include the rise in gas prices in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2024 led to sanctions.
“The energy transition is taking place… not only based on climate considerations, but based on costs, based on competitiveness and energy security and energy independence,” Hart added. “These are the driving forces now – hardcore economic, hardcore national security [and] strategic reasons.”
In a video message, Annalena Baerbock, president of the UN General Assembly and former foreign minister of Germany, said “we are living in heavy, challenging times” – but despite setbacks and political headwinds, “the march to a renewable energy future has proven unstoppable”.
She added that global renewable capacity has now reached more than 4,400 gigawatts, almost 30 times that of 2015 when the Paris climate agreement was adopted, while a record $2.4 trillion was invested in the energy transition in 2024. “There is no way back,” she added.
However, she and Hart both noted that more needs to be done to support African countries to unlock finance for clean energy, as it lags far behind other regions and receives only around 2% of investment in the sector.
Challenges for small island states
The substantial needs of small island developing states (SIDS) are also front and centre at the IRENA Assembly, where ministers have discussed the challenges of shifting away from costly diesel and other polluting fuels while being exposed to rising climate shocks such as destructive cyclones.
Antigua and Barbuda’s minister Nicholas pointed to the difficulty of gaining insurance for renewable energy facilities as a key barrier in an era when storms can cause huge damage.
This happened in Barbuda in 2017 when Hurricane Irma wiped out a solar plant that was not insured. Governments including the United Arab Emirates and New Zealand helped to rebuild it.
Antigua and Barbuda’s Minister Melford Nicholas speaks at the IRENA 16th Assembly in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on January 11, 2026 (Photo: IRENA)
Antigua and Barbuda’s Minister Melford Nicholas speaks at the IRENA 16th Assembly in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on January 11, 2026 (Photo: IRENA)
Nicholas said SIDS are still in need of concessional finance, which could “become increasingly challenging for us” in the current international environment.
“It’s an issue, because that retards the speed at which we’re able to get to renewable energy transition,” he added, noting his country is likely to reach an energy mix of around 60% renewables by 2030 rather than the 100% it had aimed for.
Despite the obstacles, ministers from Caribbean countries like St Kitts and Nevis and Dominica showcased examples of planned geothermal plants that will enable them to phase down fossil fuels dramatically.
IRENA’s La Camera said he was optimistic the world would get very close to realising a global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by the end of this decade, but was still lagging behind on a twin target of doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
To help catalyse a global transition away from fossil fuels, he added that IRENA would work with COP host nations on a roadmap to that end, which they are due to present at the COP31 UN climate summit in Turkey in November, as well as a potential target for electrification consistent with that plan.
Jobs in renewable energy expanded only slightly in 2024 to reach 16.6 million worldwide, new figures show, suggesting that the industry’s ability to create employment is slowing as it matures.
According to an annual report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Labour Organization (ILO), the number of renewables jobs rose by just 2.3% between 2023 and 2024. This was partly due to Chinese solar manufacturers already producing more components than they could sell, and laying off workers to cut costs.
Other factors included a shift from rooftop solar installations to utility-scale systems in major markets like India and Germany, as well as increasing automation in the sector – a trend that is expected to accelerate with the use of robots, drones and artificial intelligence.
Employment in the sector has risen steadily from 7.3 million in 2012, when the data series began, along with the increase in solar, wind and geothermal energy, hydropower and biofuels around the world. But far fewer new jobs were created in 2024 – 400,000 – compared with 2023, which saw a jump of 2.5 million.
Even as it faces international condemnation over the Gaza war, Israel is working to boost natural gas exports and offshore exploration to strengthen its strategic and regional ties
While Trump’s aim of boosting oil production in Venezuela could worsen climate change, high costs and an oversupplied market might make investors think twice
In a foreword to the report released on Sunday, IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera and ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo wrote that the slowdown in the rate of job creation points to “the emergence of a new phase in the energy transition”.
“Growing automation and economies of scale mean that comparatively less human labour is required for each new unit of capacity – although impacts vary across countries, technologies and segments of the renewable energy value chain,” they said.
IRENA currently projects that, with the right policies in place, the renewable energy workforce could expand to 30 million jobs by 2030. But the latest figures – which do not reflect the impact of Donald Trump’s squashing of US renewables incentives in 2025 – indicate reaching that level could be a stretch.
Michael Renner, IRENA’s head of socioeconomics and policy, told Climate Home News on the sidelines of the agency’s assembly in Abu Dhabi that, in the past 10-20 years, the renewable energy sector has been far more labour-intensive than the fossil fuel industry – which has largely been automated – but the difference is starting to narrow.
“I think renewables are still looking favourable [for job creation], and I don’t think that advantage will be lost – but I think it will be less massive, less dramatic,” he added.
Notes:
a) Includes liquid biofuels, solid biomass and biogas.
b) Direct jobs only.
c) “Others” includes geothermal energy, concentrated solar power, heat pumps (ground based), municipal and industrial waste,
and ocean energy.
Source: IRENA / Renewable Energy and Jobs
Annual Review 2025
Notes:
a) Includes liquid biofuels, solid biomass and biogas.
b) Direct jobs only.
c) “Others” includes geothermal energy, concentrated solar power, heat pumps (ground based), municipal and industrial waste,
and ocean energy.
Source: IRENA / Renewable Energy and Jobs
Annual Review 2025
Geographical imbalances
The world needs to add a huge amount of solar, wind, hydro and geothermalcapacity to meet a global goal of tripling renewable power capacity to reach 11.2 terawatts (TW) by the end of the decade. That will require installing an average of about 1.1 TW each year from 2025 to 2030, which is about double the power added in 2024, IRENA says.
In a statement on the jobs report, La Camera noted that renewable energy deployment is “booming, but the human side of the story is as important as the technological side”.
He pointed to geographical imbalances in the deployment of clean energy and related job creation. Africa has particularly struggled to attract foreign investment in building out renewables, with much of the growth currently concentrated in Asia.
“Countries that are lagging behind in the energy transition must be supported by the international community,” La Camera said. “This is essential not only to meet the goal of tripling renewable power capacity by 2030, but also to ensure that socioeconomic benefits become lived realities for all, helping to shore up popular support for the transition.”
Some countries like Nigeria are trying to boost their solar equipment manufacturing supply chains, with the government saying it plans to ban solar panel imports, and two large assembly plants announced to support public electrification programmes.
China leads on jobs but solar stumbles
In 2024, China was home to nearly half – 44% – of the world’s renewable energy jobs with an estimated 7.3 million. But in that year, employment in its solar photovoltaics (PV) sector actually contracted slightly, as five leading manufacturers cut their workforce.
This was in response to efforts by the Chinese government to curb what it has dubbed “disorderly” competition by reducing excess capacity across the solar PV supply chain, in a bid to boost prices and product quality.
Renewables jobs stayed flat in the European Union in 2024, meanwhile, at 1.8 million jobs, and India and the US saw small rises, accounting for 1.3 million and 1.1 million respectively. Brazil was also a big employer, with 1.4 million jobs, partly thanks to its biofuels industry based on soy and sugarcane.
On the impact of Trump’s efforts to roll back incentives and subsidies for green energy in the US, Renner said it will likely mean fewer new renewable power installations, with the report documenting examples of solar and wind projects that were cancelled or halted in 2025.
He also noted the dampening effects of US tariff hikes on the production of solar panels in Southeast Asia, which has led to job losses in some countries including Thailand, while others such as India have been able to increase their exports to the US thanks to relatively lower taxes on their exports.
Limited opportunities for women and people with disabilities
The report also highlights a lack of progress on increasing women workers in the renewables industry. While higher than in fossil fuels, it has plateaued at about one job in three.
Those jobs are concentrated in administrative roles, which account for 45% of female employment in renewable energy, as well as in technical positions unrelated to science, technology or engineering, such as legal work.
The report calls for greater efforts by companies, education and skills training bodies to open up more opportunities for women in clean energy, as well as for people with disabilities who face high barriers to participating in labour markets across the board, with only three in 10 being employed worldwide.
There are some positive cases where proactive policies have made a difference, such as in India’s electric vehicle industry, which has a relatively high level of women at the management level.
In Brazil, meanwhile, national legislation requires companies with more than 100 employees to reserve 2-5% of jobs for people with disabilities, including those in renewable energy.
And in Spain, energy utility Endesa and municipalities trained over 300 people with intellectual and psycho-social disabilities in tasks like vegetation management and composting at solar energy sites, with nearly 40% securing jobs after six months.
ILO’s Houngbo called for greater efforts on disability inclusion in the clean energy transition, not just as a matter of justice but also to advance resilient labour markets and sustainable development.
“This requires accessible training systems, inclusive hiring practices, and workplaces that accommodate, welcome and respond to diverse needs and respect every worker’s rights,” he added.
Climate Home News received support from IRENA to travel to Abu Dhabi to covers its 16th Assembly.
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