Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
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This week
Unprecedented heat
‘RED ALERT’: The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a “red alert” on climate change, after 2023 saw record heat, ice-melt and greenhouse gas emissions, the Associated Press reported. The WMO’s report confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record, with the average global temperature reaching 1.45C, noted the Guardian. The world is getting ever closer to temporarily breaching 1.5C, the ambition set under the Paris Agreement, the Independent said.
IMPACTS REVEALED: According to the WMO, extreme weather events are having an “alarming” impact on food insecurity, the Financial Times reported. The FT said there were 333 million people in 2023 who were “acutely food insecure”, compared to 149 million people before the Covid-19 pandemic. Elsewhere, Al Jazeera reported that “over 90% of ocean waters experienced heatwave conditions at least once” in 2023.
SCIENTISTS STUNNED: Reacting to the report, Prof Jonathan Bamber, a glaciologist at the University of Bristol, told the i newspaper: “The pace of climate breakdown that we’re witnessing is faster than I think the vast majority of climate scientists were anticipating five or 10 years ago. Things are changing so rapidly that myself and quite a few of my colleagues do have concerns that some of our estimates could be on the conservative side.” It comes as leading climate scientist Dr Gavin Schmidt published a piece in Nature saying that researchers are finding 2023’s extremes “hard to explain” and that Earth could be entering “uncharted territory”.
Big Oil backtracks
TEXAS HOLD ‘EM: As Earth continues to face record-breaking extremes, executives from the world’s leading oil-and-gas companies gathered this week to “pour scorn” on efforts to move away from fossil fuels, reported the Guardian. According to the newspaper, Amin Nasser, the chief executive of state firm Saudi Aramco, told the industry’s annual Cera Week summit in Texas: “We should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas and instead invest in them adequately.”
BUSINESS AS USUAL: Also reporting on the summit, Reuters noted that many oil-and-gas CEOs shared Nasser’s views, adding: “Shell’s Wael Sawan point[ed] to government bureaucracy in Europe as slowing needed development. Petrobras CEO Jean Paul Prates said caution should overrule haste. Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods also said regulations governing clean fuels have still not been resolved.” It came as the Guardian covered a new report from Global Witness suggesting that emissions connected to top oil and gas firms could cause 11.5 million additional heat deaths by 2100.
Around the world
- CLIMATE MINISTERIAL: At a climate ministerial in Copenhagen, a “troika” made up of the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and Brazil – the hosts of COP28, COP29 and COP30, respectively – urged countries to update their international emissions pledges by 2025, the Hindustan Times reported.
- SCHOOL CLOSURES: South Sudan has closed all its schools for an expected two weeks as temperatures are forecast to reach 45C, BBC News reported. It comes as Carbon Brief covered a new attribution analysis finding climate change made recent heat in west Africa 10 times more likely.
- US TRANSPORT: The Biden administration announced new rules to tackle pollution from the nation’s cars and light trucks, “imposing tailpipe emission limits so stringent they will compel automakers to rapidly boost sales of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models”, Bloomberg reported.
- UK COURTS: The UK Court of Appeal has ruled that climate activists prosecuted in England and Wales for criminal damage can no longer use the “consent defence” – that they believe the property owner would have given their consent to the action if they understood the reason for the protest – the Financial Times reported.
- GREEN STEEL: A new report found that China is “falling short” in decarbonising its steel sector, due to “slowing demand, low recycling rates and lingering overcapacity concerns” impeding the transition to lower-emission production, said Reuters.
- BRAZIL HEATWAVE: Following a record “heat index” (which factors in the impact of humidity) of up to 62C in the Brazilian capital Rio de Janeiro last weekend, O Globo reported that heatwaves may become more frequent in the country.
13 million
The number of residents in India’s southern tech capital of Bengaluru who are running out of groundwater following an “unusually hot” February and March, the Associated Press reported.
Latest climate research
- Over the past 60 years, livestock grazing has reduced soil carbon stocks by 46bn tonnes of carbon at a depth of one metre, a study in Nature Climate Change found.
- Research in Nature Cities found that only 43% of 793 cities studied have implemented green recovery plans in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
- A study in Climatic Change gathered the opinions of 20 policymakers and practitioners from different countries about the readability of figures drafted for the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on how to tackle climate change. It recommended ways that the figures could be improved, based on the feedback.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
New Carbon Brief analysis debunked 18 of the most common and persistent myths about heat pumps. Heat pumps can significantly cut greenhouse gas emissions (see chart above) and are the “central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating”, according to the International Energy Agency. Yet, in major economies such as the UK and Germany, heat pumps are the subject of hostile and misleading reporting across many mainstream media outlets, according to Carbon Brief’s new factcheck.
Spotlight
Rare-earth mining in Myanmar
This week, Carbon Brief interviews an expert about how rare-earth mining in Myanmar has increased since the country’s military coup in 2021, its impacts on local communities and the environment, plus how it can be better monitored and controlled.
Myanmar is rich in natural resources. It is home to a wealth of gemstones, energy sources, such as coal and uranium, as well as vast amounts of rare earths.
Dysprosium and terbium are two rare earths that are heavily mined in Myanmar. They are used in a range of everyday technologies, such as light bulbs, but are increasingly being used for renewable energy, including for electric vehicles and wind turbines.
As countries race to achieve their climate targets, demand for these rare earths is substantially increasing. The Irrawaddy reported that Myanmar exported more than 140,000 tonnes of rare-earth deposits to China between May 2017 and October 2021, valued at more than $1bn.
However, much of Myanmar’s mining industry is illicit and controlled by armed groups. Illegal mining has grown since the country’s military coup in 2021, particularly along the Chinese border in Kachin State.
China, the world’s biggest low-carbon technology producer and the largest processor of rare earths, is now increasingly outsourcing its mining activities into neighbouring Myanmar amid growing national concerns over the highly polluting process.
Below, Carbon Brief speaks to Vicky Bowman (pictured above), director of the not-for-profit Myanmar Centre for Responsible Business, about escalating issues with rare-earth mining in the country. The interview has been edited for clarity and length.
Carbon Brief: Please can you give an overview of rare-earth mining in Myanmar and how it has developed since the military coup in 2021?
Vicky Bowman: Rare-earth mining has been taking place in Kachin state, north-eastern Myanmar, on China’s border for around a decade, mainly by Chinese miners in areas under the control of the pro-military Kachin militias. Chinese companies started to source more from Kachin state because of a clampdown on rare-earth mining in Yunnan due to environmental pollution.
Satellite footage commissioned by Global Witness showed that rare-earth mining has significantly expanded since the coup. It also takes place to a lesser extent in areas controlled by the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), which is opposed to the Myanmar military. The KIO planned to expand rare-earth mining to raise funds for their armed struggle, but they faced significant local backlash and dropped the expansion plans in 2023.
CB: What impacts is rare-earth mining having on people, particularly Indigenous peoples, and the environment in Myanmar?
VB: Indigenous peoples in the areas where rare-earth mining is taking place in Kachin state, mostly Kachin ethnic minority, rely on agriculture and forests for their livelihood and culture. These areas are also rich in biodiversity. The leaching process for extracting rare-earth ores requires leaching it from the soil using ammonia and other chemicals. These chemicals enter the environment and poison the streams and fields, killing trees, cattle and local nature and making local people sick.
CB: What needs to happen to better monitor and control the impacts of rare-earth mining in Myanmar?
VB: The vast majority of mining in Myanmar nowadays is unplanned, unregulated and unlicensed. The national Mining Law is not fit for purpose. It fails to align with other laws, such as those concerning investment, environmental protection and land use. There are few, if any, officials in any of the ministries who understand how to regulate mining. Corruption is rife. If and when Myanmar’s political crisis is resolved, the policy and legal framework for mining needs to be completely overhauled into a federal system, which can ensure effective land-use planning and environmental protection, and transparent tax revenues for central and sub-national governments and local communities.
Indeed, creating an effective framework for responsible mining is central to resolving conflicts between local people and the central government, and should be a priority for anyone working on peace.
Watch, read, listen
WHEN HEAT KILLS: A new documentary by Deutsche Welle investigated the effects of extreme heat on human health, particularly for outdoor workers, as the climate warms.
CLIMATE OF FEAR: Atmospheric scientist Prof Adam Sobel unpacked coping with the daunting uncertainties of climate change in an article in Nature.
RIGHTS FOR NATURE?: The latest episode of the Guardian’s Science Weekly podcast explored the contested concept of whether nature should have rights.
Coming up
- 18-29 March: First part of the 29th annual session of the International Seabed Authority, Kingston, Jamaica
- 23 March: UN observed World Meteorological Day
- 24 March: Senegalese presidential election
- 26 March: IEA-Power Africa – Data-driven electrification in Africa webinar, remote
Pick of the jobs
- Science Media Centre, internship | Salary: London Living Wage (£13.15 an hour). Location: London
- Climate Analytics, head of climate science and impacts team | Salary: Unknown. Location: Berlin, Germany
- British Antarctic Survey, glacial sedimentologist | Salary: £39,375-£43,313. Location: Cambridge, UK
- Work On Climate, founders programme manager | Salary: $70,000-90,000. Location: Remote, US
- European Energy Research Alliance, clean energy transition expert | Salary: Unknown. Location: Brussels, Belgium
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post DeBriefed 22 March 2024: ‘Red alert’ for Earth; Heat-pump myths factchecked; Myanmar’s rare-earth mining crisis appeared first on Carbon Brief.
A new storm recovery charge could soon hit Georgia Power customers’ bills, as climate change drives more destructive weather across the state.
Hurricane Helene may be long over, but its costs are poised to land on Georgians’ electricity bills. After the storm killed 37 people in Georgia and caused billions in damage in September 2024, Georgia Power is seeking permission from state regulators to pass recovery costs on to customers.
Gov. Mikie Sherrill says she supports both AI and lowering her constituents’ bills.
With New Jersey’s cost-of-living “crisis” at the center of Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s agenda, her administration has inherited a program that approved a $250 million tax break for an artificial intelligence data center.
Amid Affordability Crisis, New Jersey Hands $250 Million Tax Break to Data Center
Gabrielle Dreyfus is chief scientist at the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, Thomas Röckmann is a professor of atmospheric physics and chemistry at Utrecht University, and Lena Höglund Isaksson is a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
This March scientists and policy makers will gather near the site in Italy where methane was first identified 250 years ago to share the latest science on methane and the policy and technology steps needed to rapidly cut methane emissions. The timing is apt.
As new tools transform our understanding of methane emissions and their sources, the evidence they reveal points to a single conclusion: Human-caused methane emissions are still rising, and global action remains far too slow.
This is the central finding of the latest Global Methane Status Report. Four years into the Global Methane Pledge, which aims for a 30% cut in global emissions by 2030, the good news is that the pledge has increased mitigation ambition under national plans, which, if fully implemented, could result in the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
The bad news is this is still short of the 30% target. The decisive question is whether governments will move quickly enough to turn that bend into the steep decline required to pump the brake on global warming.
What the data really show
Assessing progress requires comparing three benchmarks: the level of emissions today relative to 2020, the trajectory projected in 2021 before methane received significant policy focus, and the level required by 2030 to meet the pledge.
The latest data show that global methane emissions in 2025 are higher than in 2020 but not as high as previously expected. In 2021, emissions were projected to rise by about 9% between 2020 and 2030. Updated analysis places that increase closer to 5%. This change is driven by factors such as slower than expected growth in unconventional gas production between 2020 and 2024 and lower than expected waste emissions in several regions.
Gas flaring soars in Niger Delta post-Shell, afflicting communities
This updated trajectory still does not deliver the reductions required, but it does indicate that the curve is beginning to bend. More importantly, the commitments already outlined in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions and Methane Action Plans would, if fully implemented, produce an 8% reduction in global methane emissions between 2020 and 2030. This would turn the current increase into a sustained decline. While still insufficient to reach the Global Methane Pledge target of a 30% cut, it would represent historical progress.
Solutions are known and ready
Scientific assessments consistently show that the technical potential to meet the pledge exists. The gap lies not in technology, but in implementation.
The energy sector accounts for approximately 70% of total technical methane reduction potential between 2020 and 2030. Proven measures include recovering associated petroleum gas in oil production, regular leak detection and repair across oil and gas supply chains, and installing ventilation air oxidation technologies in underground coal mines. Many of these options are low cost or profitable. Yet current commitments would achieve only one third of the maximum technically feasible reductions in this sector.
Recent COP hosts Brazil and Azerbaijan linked to “super-emitting” methane plumes
Agriculture and waste also provide opportunities. Rice emissions can be reduced through improved water management, low-emission hybrids and soil amendments. While innovations in technology and practices hold promise in the longer term, near-term potential in livestock is more constrained and trends in global diets may counteract gains.
Waste sector emissions had been expected to increase more rapidly, but improvements in waste management in several regions over the past two decades have moderated this rise. Long-term mitigation in this sector requires immediate investment in improved landfills and circular waste systems, as emissions from waste already deposited will persist in the short term.
New measurement tools
Methane monitoring capacity has expanded significantly. Satellite-based systems can now identify methane super-emitters. Ground-based sensors are becoming more accessible and can provide real-time data. These developments improve national inventories and can strengthen accountability.
However, policy action does not need to wait for perfect measurement. Current scientific understanding of source magnitudes and mitigation effectiveness is sufficient to achieve a 30% reduction between 2020 and 2030. Many of the largest reductions in oil, gas and coal can be delivered through binding technology standards that do not require high precision quantification of emissions.
The decisive years ahead
The next 2 years will be critical for determining whether existing commitments translate into emissions reductions consistent with the Global Methane Pledge.
Governments should prioritise adoption of an effective international methane performance standard for oil and gas, including through the EU Methane Regulation, and expand the reach of such standards through voluntary buyers’ clubs. National and regional authorities should introduce binding technology standards for oil, gas and coal to ensure that voluntary agreements are backed by legal requirements.
One approach to promoting better progress on methane is to develop a binding methane agreement, starting with the oil and gas sector, as suggested by Barbados’ PM Mia Mottley and other leaders. Countries must also address the deeper challenge of political and economic dependence on fossil fuels, which continues to slow progress. Without a dual strategy of reducing methane and deep decarbonisation, it will not be possible to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
Mottley’s “legally binding” methane pact faces barriers, but smaller steps possible
The next four years will determine whether available technologies, scientific evidence and political leadership align to deliver a rapid transition toward near-zero methane energy systems, holistic and equity-based lower emission agricultural systems and circular waste management strategies that eliminate methane release. These years will also determine whether the world captures the near-term climate benefits of methane abatement or locks in higher long-term costs and risks.
The Global Methane Status Report shows that the world is beginning to change course. Delivering the sharper downward trajectory now required is a test of political will. As scientists, we have laid out the evidence. Leaders must now act on it.
The post Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace appeared first on Climate Home News.
Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace
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