Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.
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This week
John Kerry leaves the climate stage
STEPPING DOWN: John Kerry, the US special presidential envoy for climate, will soon leave his role in order to support Joe Biden in the US presidential election later this year, Axios reported. His retirement “comes at a time of political threat to Biden’s climate agenda, with the possibility of a second Trump presidency looming”, the Financial Times noted.
UNCERTAIN FUTURE: Kerry was “key to brokering the crucial 2015 Paris Agreement” and “worked effectively with China despite strained diplomatic ties”, BBC News reported. The New York Times said that the role of climate envoy is a “major diplomatic role that was created especially for him and…will face an uncertain future with his departure”. It added that “no successor has yet been tapped”.
Labour’s climate pledge
GREEN COMMITMENT?: Labour’s £28bn climate investment pledge “was not included in Labour’s…‘campaigning bible’”, the Daily Telegraph reported, throwing the policy “into fresh doubt”. A Labour spokesperson told the newspaper that the party is still committed to the plan despite the omission. But Labour shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves told the Times that the figure might be scaled back, “if Tory spending commitments meant there was less money to spend”.
FACING PRESSURE: Right-leaning media outlets continued to heavily criticise Labour’s climate policy this week. The Daily Telegraph characterised it as “fanciful”, while separate articles in the Sun called the plan a “massive green splurge” and said that Labour might “impose punitive green policies if they get into government”.
ECONOMIC BENEFITS: However, former Conservative MP Chris Skidmore, in an interview with Carbon Brief, said that he believes “the Labour Party’s decision to come out and say that we should be investing in green industries…is the right one”. The possible economic boost from such investment means “there’s an economic case to be won, as well as a values case, at this election”, he added.
Around the world
- DEFORESTATION SLOWING: The Amazon saw deforestation rates fall by nearly 50% in 2023 compared to the previous year, BBC News reported.
- SHELL PRESSURE: 27 investors demanded that Shell improve its environmental targets at its annual meeting, the Financial Times said. Shell will also sell its controversial Nigerian onshore oil business, although it will continue with other oil, gas and solar projects in the country, reported Bloomberg.
- EU 2040 TARGET: The EU is discussing its climate target plan for 2040, with several member states supporting a target of a 90% emissions cut relative to 1990, reported Euractiv.
- FOSSILS AT COP: Azerbaijan released details of 28-strong organising committee for the COP29 climate summit containing no women on Monday, the Guardian reported. On Friday, On Friday, Azerbaijan announced it will make changes to the committee, the Azerbaijani Press Agency reported, although did not provide any further details.
- SNOW DEFICITS: The India Meteorological Department reported “large winter snowfall deficits” in some of India’s northern states, the Third Pole said, adding that the deficits could impact “crucial water-sharing treaties” with other countries.
14.5 million
The number of additional deaths by 2050 that could occur due to the impact of climate change on extreme weather and sea levels, and rising air pollution, according to the World Economic Forum.
Latest climate research
- A new paper in Geoscience Data Journal presented the results of a citizen science project to digitise weather observations recorded in UK Met Office daily weather reports between 1861 and 1875.
- Since 1985, the Greenland ice sheet has lost more than 5,000 square kilometres in area, corresponding to more than 1,000bn tonnes of ice lost, according to a new study in Nature.
- Research in Climatic Change revealed that, following wildfires in California between 2017 and 2021, there was a significant increase in tweets linking wildfires to climate change.
(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)
Captured
China’s population shrunk to 1.410 billion from a high of 1.413 billion in 2021, according to data released by China’s national bureau of statistics. Should this trend continue, the ageing of China’s population could “exacerbat[e] structural imbalances” in the country’s economy and slow overall growth, according to Reuters. This could have consequences for energy consumption and, thus, emissions. However, studies disagree on the exact link between ageing and emissions reduction – for example, one study found that population ageing “negatively correlates” with carbon emission intensity, while another argued that household emissions will rise as the population ages, especially in urban areas.
Spotlight
Who is China’s new climate envoy?
This week, Carbon Brief explores what China’s new climate envoy might mean for climate diplomacy.
On 12 January, China announced that career diplomat Liu Zhenmin (pictured) will replace Xie Zhenhua as China’s new special envoy on climate change.
The move was not a complete surprise, with Bloomberg floating the possibility in October 2023.
Liu was clearly positioned as Xie’s successor at COP28. Carbon Brief heard that, in one notable moment, Xie interrupted himself during a speech to claim he was feeling tired, handing the stage to Liu to finish the speech instead.
Does Liu have climate experience?
Liu began his career in the ministry of foreign affairs, rising to vice minister. He was appointed under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs at the United Nations (UN) in 2017.
Much of Liu’s work at the UN included a “climate change and sustainable development” brief, foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters on Monday. She added:
“We believe that [he] will continue stepping up dialogue and cooperation with all parties.”
Liu is familiar with climate negotiations, having attended 10 COPs. He was involved in negotiations to develop both the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement, Bloomberg reported.
“Liu was a key driver in landing the Kyoto Protocol,” Yuan Ying, Greenpeace East Asia chief China representative, tells Carbon Brief. “That is a promising piece of experience.”
What does this mean for China’s climate policy?
Bloomberg described Liu as a “non-controversial option” – and his public statements have largely been in line with China’s official positions.
In an interview with Caijing Eleven at the COP28 climate summit, he said that countries must “balance” ambition and pragmatism and that China’s transition away from coal will be “difficult”.
“China is doing real work, especially in the rapid development of renewable energy”, he said, which will gradually replace coal.
“Developed countries still have to take the lead in making changes in order to leave more space for the economic growth of developing countries,” he added.
Nevertheless, his past comments have hinted at areas of personal interest. He wrote two articles arguing that “more must be done to ensure that investments…do not undermine our efforts to address climate change.”
He also described the circular economy as “one of [his] favourite topics during [his] tenure at the UN” during an event on the sidelines of COP28.
Will China cooperate with developed countries on climate?
Liu attended COP28 as a senior adviser to Xie, allowing him to cement relationships with his future counterparts.
He was seen by Carbon Brief in multiple meetings with the US’s John Kerry and Susan Biniaz. German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan confirmed in a COP28 side-event attended by Carbon Brief that she and Liu also held discussions.
Nevertheless, Kerry and Xie’s departure increases uncertainty around future US-China alignment, a dynamic key to breakthroughs at the COPs in Paris, Glasgow and Dubai.
Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Climate Hub, is not optimistic. He told Politico that “if climate change generates news on the US-China front in 2024[,] it is more likely bad news than good”.
Watch, read, listen
2024 EXPECTATIONS: Carbon Tracker outlined some of the key issues to watch in climate and energy in 2024, including India’s elections, the adoption of climate disclosure rules in the US and the development of the East African crude oil pipeline.
GIGAFACTORY TOUR: The Fully Charged Show gained rare access to one of Chinese battery manufacturer CATL’s gigafactories, taking viewers on a tour of how batteries are made.
PROBLEM-SOLVING: On the BBC Radio 4’s Start the Week, host Kirsty Wark spoke with Our World in Data’s Hannah Ritchie, Bloomberg Green’s Akshat Rathi and the British Antarctic Survey’s Michael Meredith about solutions to tackle climate change.
Coming up
- 24 January: International Energy Agency (IEA) Electricity Market report launch, Paris, France
- 25-26 January: G20 first International Financial Architecture working group meeting, Vila do Conde, Brazil
- 26 January: Tuvalu general elections
Pick of the jobs
- The Centre for Climate Reporting, junior investigations reporter | Salary: £26,000-30,000. Location: Remote
- The Wellcome Trust, policy adviser on climate and health | Salary: £53,527. Location: London
- Environmental Justice Foundation, Taiwan climate campaigner | Salary: NTD 65,000-85,000. Location: EJF Taipei office (hybrid working)
- Power Shift Africa, media and communication associate | Salary: Unknown. Location: Open to Africans of all backgrounds
DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org
The post DeBriefed 19 January 2024: John Kerry retires; Uncertainty over UK Labour’s pledge; China’s new climate envoy profiled appeared first on Carbon Brief.
A new storm recovery charge could soon hit Georgia Power customers’ bills, as climate change drives more destructive weather across the state.
Hurricane Helene may be long over, but its costs are poised to land on Georgians’ electricity bills. After the storm killed 37 people in Georgia and caused billions in damage in September 2024, Georgia Power is seeking permission from state regulators to pass recovery costs on to customers.
Gov. Mikie Sherrill says she supports both AI and lowering her constituents’ bills.
With New Jersey’s cost-of-living “crisis” at the center of Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s agenda, her administration has inherited a program that approved a $250 million tax break for an artificial intelligence data center.
Amid Affordability Crisis, New Jersey Hands $250 Million Tax Break to Data Center
Gabrielle Dreyfus is chief scientist at the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, Thomas Röckmann is a professor of atmospheric physics and chemistry at Utrecht University, and Lena Höglund Isaksson is a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
This March scientists and policy makers will gather near the site in Italy where methane was first identified 250 years ago to share the latest science on methane and the policy and technology steps needed to rapidly cut methane emissions. The timing is apt.
As new tools transform our understanding of methane emissions and their sources, the evidence they reveal points to a single conclusion: Human-caused methane emissions are still rising, and global action remains far too slow.
This is the central finding of the latest Global Methane Status Report. Four years into the Global Methane Pledge, which aims for a 30% cut in global emissions by 2030, the good news is that the pledge has increased mitigation ambition under national plans, which, if fully implemented, could result in the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
The bad news is this is still short of the 30% target. The decisive question is whether governments will move quickly enough to turn that bend into the steep decline required to pump the brake on global warming.
What the data really show
Assessing progress requires comparing three benchmarks: the level of emissions today relative to 2020, the trajectory projected in 2021 before methane received significant policy focus, and the level required by 2030 to meet the pledge.
The latest data show that global methane emissions in 2025 are higher than in 2020 but not as high as previously expected. In 2021, emissions were projected to rise by about 9% between 2020 and 2030. Updated analysis places that increase closer to 5%. This change is driven by factors such as slower than expected growth in unconventional gas production between 2020 and 2024 and lower than expected waste emissions in several regions.
Gas flaring soars in Niger Delta post-Shell, afflicting communities
This updated trajectory still does not deliver the reductions required, but it does indicate that the curve is beginning to bend. More importantly, the commitments already outlined in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions and Methane Action Plans would, if fully implemented, produce an 8% reduction in global methane emissions between 2020 and 2030. This would turn the current increase into a sustained decline. While still insufficient to reach the Global Methane Pledge target of a 30% cut, it would represent historical progress.
Solutions are known and ready
Scientific assessments consistently show that the technical potential to meet the pledge exists. The gap lies not in technology, but in implementation.
The energy sector accounts for approximately 70% of total technical methane reduction potential between 2020 and 2030. Proven measures include recovering associated petroleum gas in oil production, regular leak detection and repair across oil and gas supply chains, and installing ventilation air oxidation technologies in underground coal mines. Many of these options are low cost or profitable. Yet current commitments would achieve only one third of the maximum technically feasible reductions in this sector.
Recent COP hosts Brazil and Azerbaijan linked to “super-emitting” methane plumes
Agriculture and waste also provide opportunities. Rice emissions can be reduced through improved water management, low-emission hybrids and soil amendments. While innovations in technology and practices hold promise in the longer term, near-term potential in livestock is more constrained and trends in global diets may counteract gains.
Waste sector emissions had been expected to increase more rapidly, but improvements in waste management in several regions over the past two decades have moderated this rise. Long-term mitigation in this sector requires immediate investment in improved landfills and circular waste systems, as emissions from waste already deposited will persist in the short term.
New measurement tools
Methane monitoring capacity has expanded significantly. Satellite-based systems can now identify methane super-emitters. Ground-based sensors are becoming more accessible and can provide real-time data. These developments improve national inventories and can strengthen accountability.
However, policy action does not need to wait for perfect measurement. Current scientific understanding of source magnitudes and mitigation effectiveness is sufficient to achieve a 30% reduction between 2020 and 2030. Many of the largest reductions in oil, gas and coal can be delivered through binding technology standards that do not require high precision quantification of emissions.
The decisive years ahead
The next 2 years will be critical for determining whether existing commitments translate into emissions reductions consistent with the Global Methane Pledge.
Governments should prioritise adoption of an effective international methane performance standard for oil and gas, including through the EU Methane Regulation, and expand the reach of such standards through voluntary buyers’ clubs. National and regional authorities should introduce binding technology standards for oil, gas and coal to ensure that voluntary agreements are backed by legal requirements.
One approach to promoting better progress on methane is to develop a binding methane agreement, starting with the oil and gas sector, as suggested by Barbados’ PM Mia Mottley and other leaders. Countries must also address the deeper challenge of political and economic dependence on fossil fuels, which continues to slow progress. Without a dual strategy of reducing methane and deep decarbonisation, it will not be possible to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
Mottley’s “legally binding” methane pact faces barriers, but smaller steps possible
The next four years will determine whether available technologies, scientific evidence and political leadership align to deliver a rapid transition toward near-zero methane energy systems, holistic and equity-based lower emission agricultural systems and circular waste management strategies that eliminate methane release. These years will also determine whether the world captures the near-term climate benefits of methane abatement or locks in higher long-term costs and risks.
The Global Methane Status Report shows that the world is beginning to change course. Delivering the sharper downward trajectory now required is a test of political will. As scientists, we have laid out the evidence. Leaders must now act on it.
The post Curbing methane is the fastest way to slow warming – but we’re off the pace appeared first on Climate Home News.
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