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Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed.
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Bonn talks wrap up

‘STEEP MOUNTAIN’: As climate negotiations in the German city of Bonn drew to a close on Thursday night, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said that nations had “a very steep mountain to climb” ahead of the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, later this year, according to Agence France-Presse.

FINANCE DIVIDE: The talks were marked by “polarised views and sharp disagreements”, the Hindustan Times reported. The divide over climate finance was particularly notable, with countries failing to find common ground, despite the expectation they will come up with a new target “for helping poorer countries cut their emissions and protect their societies in a harsher, hotter world”, Reuters explained.

RAISING AMBITION: In its final daily dispatch from the talks in Bonn, Climate Home News covered an event that saw negotiators from the past, present and future COP presidencies – the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil – discuss their efforts to boost the ambition of other countries’ climate plans. All three said they will submit new strategies that are aligned with the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5C, but the article noted that none of them plan to stop producing fossil fuels. Carbon Brief has just published an in-depth article on the key takeaways from Bonn.

Europe goes to the polls

GREEN LOSSES: Losses by Green parties in the European parliamentary elections have “raised concerns” about EU climate policies, the Guardian reported. The Associated Press noted significant Green losses in Germany and France, amid a wider “electoral shift to the right”. Nevertheless, Reuters stated that the EU’s Green Deal package of laws would prove “hard to undo” – a point broadly echoed by experts speaking to Carbon Brief.

UK ELECTION: UK parties began launching their election manifestos. The incumbent Conservatives have drawn criticism for their “pragmatic” net-zero policies, according to the Press Association. By contrast, the Liberal Democrats have pledged to bring the UK’s net-zero goal forward to 2045, BusinessGreen reported. Labour, which polling suggests is likely to form the next government, confirmed its goal to bring forward a target to fully decarbonise the electricity grid from 2035 to 2030, according to Edie. Carbon Brief is tracking where all the parties stand on climate, energy and nature.

Around the world

  • DROUGHT RIOTS: Riots have erupted over water shortages in the drought-stricken Algerian city of Tiaret, according to the Associated Press. It described the fossil-fuel-rich nation as being in “among the world’s worst-hit regions by climate change”.
  • BAN REVERSAL: New Zealand’s right-wing government has announced it will reverse a ban on oil-and-gas exploration brought in by the previous government, Radio New Zealand reported.
  • WET FIRES: A record area of Brazil’s Pantanal wetlands has burned in the first half of 2024, as weak rains have disrupted the usual seasonal flooding, BBC News reported.
  • DIRTY MONEY: Sources have told Reuters that Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) members intend to launch a plan to end new private-sector financing for coal projects at the COP29 climate summit.
  • REJECT YOUR ELDERS: The Swiss parliament has rejected a European Court of Human Rights ruling, which accused the nation of violating the rights of a group of “female climate elders” by enacting weak climate policies, according to the Guardian.
  • TRADE WARS: The EU will impose additional levies on electric cars from China next month, taking tariffs to as high as 48%, Bloomberg said.

$1.1-1.3 trillion

The amount of climate finance developing countries at Bonn want developed countries to provide to them every year, according to Climate Home News.


Latest climate research

  • The extreme rainfall that hit Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran in April and May this year was made twice as likely by El Niño, according to rapid analysis covered by Carbon Brief. The scientists were unable to determine the role of climate change.
  • Nitrous oxide emissions from human activities rose by 40% over the past four decades, partly driven by growing global demand for meat and dairy, according to new research reported on by Carbon Brief.
  • Exposure to high and low temperatures during pregnancy and the early years of a child’s life “may have lasting impacts” on brain development, according to new research in Nature Climate Change.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

The world is on track to breach the 1.5C limit in the late 2020s or early 2030s

New Carbon Brief analysis by Dr Zeke Hausfather examined when the world is likely to exceed the 1.5C and 2C limits set out in the Paris Agreement. The chart above shows observed global average temperature from 1850 to 2023 in black, along with a vast array of colours illustrating the wide range of possible futures derived from 37 different climate models. This approach suggests that the world will pass 1.5C around the year 2030, with a range of anywhere from 2028 up to 2036.

Spotlight

Fossil fuels, billionaires and weapons: are taxes the solution to climate finance?

Reporting from the UN climate talks in Bonn, Carbon Brief considers proposals to raise much-needed funds for climate action by taxing everything from fossil fuels to bombs.

Developing countries require trillions of dollars to achieve their climate goals and they want developed countries to foot a large chunk of this bill. But, by the most recent count, climate finance from those nations had reached just $116bn in 2022.

In the hunt for climate investment, one option gaining momentum is the idea of new taxes.

Tackling climate change by “making polluters pay” is not a new concept. However, as climate-finance negotiations have stalled at the UN climate talks in Bonn, some provocative ideas have made their way out of NGO reports and into the halls of power.

Tax the rich

Tucked away in the “global stocktake” text that emerged from the COP28 climate summit last year was a reference to “taxation” as an “innovative” source of climate finance.

G20 chair Brazil has taken up this idea, pushing a global “billionaire tax” that could raise around $250bn a year.

Germany and France are among those supporting this tax, arguing it could be a tool to raise climate finance.

COP28 also saw the launch of the International Tax Task Force – a group of countries exploring various levies on fossil fuels, transport and financial transactions.

Speaking to Carbon Brief in Bonn, one of the initiative’s leaders, Ali Mohamed, who is also the African Group chair, said “it’s important that we look at whatever is possible”, given the crises facing the world. He added:

“We hope just to bring together a group of countries that are willing to experiment.”

Some of these ideas are already being discussed at a high level. In particular, negotiators at the UN International Maritime Organisation are considering a shipping-emissions levy.

Oil and bombs

Ahead of Bonn, Bloomberg reported that Azerbaijan, the host of COP29, was considering a new climate fund filled by taxing oil, gas and coal production.

Fossil-fuel levies have already been employed in some countries and have been championed by UN secretary-general António Guterres. Nevertheless, Catherine Abreu, executive director of Destination Zero, told Carbon Brief it is “significant” to see such a fund proposed by the oil-producing COP president. But she added:

“So far, what we’ve heard about Azerbaijan’s proposal makes it sound more like an investment or profit-making scheme than a true climate fund.”

(This idea was further dampened in Bonn by a Politico interview with Yalchin Rafiyev, Azerbaijan’s lead negotiator, in which he suggested that their proposal would not only single out fossil fuel companies – and may consist of voluntary contributions.)

Meanwhile, the Arab Group – led by Saudi Arabia – submitted a proposal at Bonn calling for developed countries to provide $441bn in public spending a year.

Saudi negotiator Mohammad Ayoub went into more detail about how they could achieve this goal, suggesting “a tax on defence companies in developed countries”.

The proposal stood out, not least given Saudi Arabia’s status as the world’s second-largest arms importer. Climate Home News revealed that other taxes proposed by the Arab Group would target “luxury” items, such as fashion and technology.

Iskander Erzini Vernoit, director of the Imal Initiative for Climate and Development, told Carbon Brief the proposal was “a response to the constant refrain, which we hear from the US and others, that there supposedly is not sufficient public finance”.

Tax justice

This all comes against a wider backdrop of calls for “tax justice”. To this end, African nations in particular have been fighting for a new UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation.

“This could potentially lead to global tax measures that might target aviation or international financial transactions,” Teresa Anderson, global climate justice lead at ActionAid, told Carbon Brief.

Taxation is not generally regarded as a vote-winner. Yet, as wealthy countries face pressure to commit public money to climate action, Cat Pettengell, executive director of Climate Action Network UK, said “fair taxes and ending harmful subsidies are there for the taking”.

Watch, read, listen

‘COOKING AND COUGHING’: An on-the-ground report by the Associated Press examined how women are increasingly turning to burning firewood for food preparation in Kenya.

FIRE ERA: The Bloomberg Zero podcast explored how the 21st century could be “shaped by destructive fire weather”.

CLIMATE GRIEF: The Climate Pod spoke to climate justice writer Mary Annaïse Heglar about her new book, Troubled Waters, covering themes of climate racism and grief.

Coming up

Pick of the jobs

  • UN Climate Summit News, editor (part-time) | Salary: Unknown. Location: Remote
  • Greenpeace International, senior scientist | Salary: £43,116-£49,944. Location: Exeter, UK
  • WWF Malaysia, forestry manager | Salary: RM5,800-RM6,300. Location: Sabah, Malaysia

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

The post DeBriefed 14 June 2024: Bonn climate talks; When Earth could breach 1.5C; How polluter taxes could raise climate funds appeared first on Carbon Brief.

DeBriefed 14 June 2024: Bonn climate talks; When Earth could breach 1.5C; How polluter taxes could raise climate funds

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Climate Change

UN asks AI companies to reveal full environmental impacts

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The head of the United Nations has launched an initiative aimed at holding artificial intelligence companies accountable for their exploding environmental impacts, including their carbon emissions, the amount of water and land used for data centres, and the energy they consume.

During a speech at London Climate Action Week on Tuesday, António Guterres noted that AI can accelerate climate solutions, among other key challenges, and said its potential must be harnessed.

“But AI is also hungry for land, water and power,” he emphasised, adding that the data centres needed to run AI models already consume more electricity than most countries.

The UN Secretary-General repeated a call he first made in July 2025 for all big AI companies to commit to power every data centre with renewable energy by 2030.

Some tech firms have announced they are sourcing or building out clean energy to run their hubs, but growing power demand is also contributing to gas-fired generation in the US, according to data from Global Energy Monitor.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that data centres are set to more than double the emissions from the electricity they use between 2024 and 2030 in a high-growth scenario. But AI’s use could lead to far larger reductions in the energy sector through efficiency gains if adopted widely.

    ‘No more hidden costs’

    Proposing the new “AI Environmental Transparency Initiative” on Tuesday, Guterres also urged big AI firms companies to measure and publicly disclose the full environmental impact of their systems, including their carbon, water, and land footprints.

    “No more hidden costs. No more shifting the burden onto those least able to bear it. It is time to come clean,” he said in a major speech on responding to the world’s twin climate and energy crises. “If AI is to help build a better future, it must be honest about what it costs us now.”

    A report issued earlier this month by the UN University Institute for Water, Environment and Health noted that most current assessments of AI’s environmental cost focus on carbon emissions from training models. But, it added, this misses a substantial part of the picture.

    Every kilowatt-hour of electricity for AI also carries a water footprint, from cooling and generation, and a land footprint, from infrastructure and supply chains, it said.

    Explainer: Will AI data centres make or break the energy transition?

    The report estimated that AI data centres globally could consume 945 terawatt-hours of electricity annually by 2030 – more power than all but five countries and roughly twice France’s 2025 consumption.

    Offsetting this carbon footprint by 2030 would require growing some 6.7 billion trees over 10 years, it calculated. Producing power for the data centres would consume water equal to the basic needs of 1.3 billion people in sub-Saharan Africa for a year and take up land of more than 14,500 square kilometers, roughly twice the Jakarta metropolitan area.

    The European Union said earlier this month it will develop minimum energy-efficiency standards for both new and existing data centres, with a “needs assessment” ​due by 2027, Reuters reported. It’s also planning ⁠a sustainability label for data centres, covering criteria including water use and clean energy supply – but that has been delayed.    

    US community push-back 

    Asked after his speech what the response had been, the UN chief said “we’ll see”, without giving more details.

    But, he argued that, in his view, the push for transparency “is perfectly reasonable and even positive for the AI industry, because eventually some people will say that they consume much more than they really do”. “I think the truth is essential,” he added.

    Concerns about the environmental impacts of AI and the infrastructure needed to run the technology have led to growing opposition in some communities, especially in the US.

    This month, Monterey Park in Los Angeles County was the first city in the United States to enact a citywide prohibition on data centres through a voter-approved ballot measure. The developers behind a proposed centre in the area had already pulled the project in April amid an increasingly hostile local environment and regulatory uncertainty.

    The vote that stopped a data center: US communities query resource-hungry AI

    According to nonprofit Data Center Watch, around $64 billion-worth of data centre projects nationwide were delayed or blocked between May 2024 and March 2025 as communities pushed back against them.

    Industry lobby groups argue that data centres can provide economic benefits in their host communities. According to the US-based Data Center Coalition, which represents big operators and developers, data centres generate tax revenue, support construction and technical jobs, and provide infrastructure needed for cloud computing, scientific research and AI development.

    The industry has also challenged claims that data centers necessarily raise electricity costs for households.

    Force for good?

    The UN chief said benefits can be few in the places that are home to the data centre, while “communities are often left in the dark about the environmental impact of the infrastructure rising around them”.

    Guterres said companies have an “obligation” to be clear and open about the services they are offering but also the level of resources they require. 

    “Transparency is essential for the decisions that communities must make – and transparency is essential even for the future of artificial intelligence, and to make sure that artificial intelligence is essentially a force for good,” he told an audience of climate professionals in London

    A senior UN official told journalists ahead of Tuesday’s announcement that the AI industry has started to talk about and disclose some of their impacts, but those efforts are not yet comprehensive enough.

    The hope is that the new initiative will “encourage the industry to come together and take further action on it”, the official said.

    The post UN asks AI companies to reveal full environmental impacts appeared first on Climate Home News.

    UN asks AI companies to reveal full environmental impacts

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    Climate Change

    Prof Philippe Ciais: The world’s most highly cited climate scientist

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    Phillipe Ciais has spent almost four decades researching the planet’s carbon cycle – and the ways in which humans have been impacting its balance.

    Based at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE) on the outskirts of Paris, Ciais (pronounced “see-es”) has been listed as an author on more than 1,300 peer-reviewed studies.

    In fact, analysis of Carbon Brief’s Cosmos database reveals that – by some distance – he is the most highly cited climate scientist in the world.

    In a wide-ranging interview, he discusses:

    The post Prof Philippe Ciais: The world’s most highly cited climate scientist appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/prof-philippe-ciais-the-worlds-most-highly-cited-climate-scientist/

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    Climate Change

    Cited 23 June 2026: Project Cosmos launch | Science ‘under attack’ at Bonn | Emissions inequality

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    Welcome to Cited, your essential guide to new climate research.

    In the news

    SCIENCE ‘UNDER ATTACK’: Climate Home News reported that “dozens” of countries called out “coordinated attacks” aimed at “undermining the role of climate science” at UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany, last week. According to the outlet, the countries said that UN decision-making had to remain based on the “best available science”, including the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. One negotiator said that India and Saudi Arabia “opposed calls in draft texts to encourage scientific work on scenarios that would minimise the magnitude and duration of any overshoot of 1.5C”, the article noted. For more, read Carbon Brief’s summary of the negotiations.

    REPORT OPPOSITION: “Oil industry allies” in the US are targeting a report on extreme weather attribution, due to be published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, according to Politico. The outlet reported that the “heightened scrutiny – which involves a secretive opposition research group scouring scientists’ emails – has prompted two people to leave the 15-person panel tasked with producing the report”. Separately, the Guardian reported that the Trump administration has “reversed its decision” to dismantle the Ocean Observatories Initiative, a $368m deep-sea observation system.

    SUPER EL NIÑO: BBC News reported that the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that El Niño had “officially begun”. Forecasts suggest the event could be among the “strongest ever recorded”, it added. Meanwhile, a “vigorous debate” is taking place about whether climate change is making the El Niño phenomenon more intense, according to the New York Times. The outlet explained that some scientists see the run of “comparatively strong” El Niño events in recent decades as an indication that “climate change is supercharging El Niño”. However, it added that “others say there is no clear evidence to support that theory”.

    Research picks

    Water

    • Global sea level rise has nearly tripled the number of days since the 1970s when coastal water levels have surpassed average tide gauge readings | Science Advances
    • As the Arctic warms, increased iceberg activity could “reshape” deep-sea habitats and “elevate” navigational hazards as maritime traffic expands | Nature
    • Sea level rise has quadrupled the frequency of extreme coastal sea-level events since the year 1900 | Nature Climate Change

    Inequality

    • The top 10% of consumers are responsible for $1.7-5.7tn of environmental damage each year, surpassing international climate and biodiversity financing gaps | Communications Sustainability
    • Calculating an individual’s emissions based on their asset ownership suggests that wealthier people are responsible for an even higher share of global greenhouse gas emissions than indicated by past studies | Nature Climate Change
    • A plan that places equity at the “centre” of climate adaptation efforts in cities is needed to address the “stark disparities” between “affluent” and “disadvantaged” urban communities’ ability to prepare for extreme heat | PLOS Climate

    Extremes

    • In the western US, 42% of burned area over 2001-24 occurred during, and immediately following, heatwaves | Science Advances
    • “Hot-to-wet” whiplash events have become more frequent across Australia over the past century, with south-eastern Australia emerging as a hotspot | Journal of Climate
    • Rapid urbanisation, combined with more intense rainfall from tropical cyclones, have increased people’s exposure to “extreme” rainfall from tropical cyclones across China | Journal of Hydrometeorology

    Captured

    Chart showing that population growth and a warming world have driven up the number of people exposed to extreme heat since the 1970s

    One billion additional people face at least one day of “extreme heat stress” every year compared to the 1970s, according to research published in Nature Climate Change.

    The chart shows changes in “strong” (top), “very strong” (middle) and “extreme” (bottom) heat stress, defined as a “universal thermal climate index” above 32C, 38C and 46C, respectively. The grey bar shows the percentage of the global population exposed to at least one, 30 or 90 days of heat stress in 1970. The light and dark blue bars show the number of additional people experiencing heat stress over 2015-24 due to population growth and rising global temperatures, respectively.


    10%

    Equivalent damage to the UK’s GDP caused by climate change if global warming reaches 4C by 2100, according to new research in Nature Climate Change. The study estimates a range of 2-20%.


    Spotlight

    Introducing: Project Cosmos

    Carbon Brief explains how it built a major new database of climate science research and unveils a new ranking of the 500 most highly cited publications, authors and institutions in climate science.

    This week, Carbon Brief launched Project Cosmos – the world’s largest and most complete database of climate change research.

    The database features more than 1.8m academic papers, books and reports, capturing the vast body of human knowledge about climate change that has accumulated over more than a century of academic study.

    The climate science “universe” is based on reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are recognised as the world’s most authoritative summaries of the latest climate science.

    Since its first report was published in 1990, humanity’s knowledge about human-caused climate change has ballooned. The IPCC has published six sets of reports in total – each one longer than the last.

    In total, IPCC reports reference more than 100,000 other papers, books and reports. This is the core of our climate science universe. Carbon Brief then built on this core, by looking at four other sources of data. Read more about how the Cosmos database was created here.

    Every single publication in the Cosmos database is linked to at least one other through references. Visualising these links reveals a “galaxy” of references. In the image above, each colour and cluster reveals different topics and densities of research. Explore the galaxy in an interactive map here.

    Cosmos 500

    As part of an initial wave of preliminary analysis to demonstrate the scope of the Project Cosmos database, Carbon Brief has ranked the 500 most highly cited publications, authors and institutions in the database.

    The most highly cited climate scientist is Prof Philippe Ciais, who has spent almost four decades researching the planet’s carbon cycle – and the ways in which humans have been impacting its balance. Carbon Brief recently interviewed Ciais in Paris.

    The US tops the tables for the most highly-cited authors and institutions. Almost half of the 500 most highly-cited authors are from US institutions. This raises particular concerns for the future of climate science, as American climate scientists and institutions are coming under attack under the Trump administration.

    Experts from global south countries account for only 4% of all authors in the Cosmos 500. China stands out as the most highly-cited global south country. Meanwhile, only 10% of authors in the Cosmos 500 are women.

    There are many possibilities for future avenues of research using the Cosmos database. Over time, the database could be used to reveal, for example, how interest in different areas of climate science has changed over time, plus identify potential knowledge gaps and, thus, opportunities for future research.

    Carbon Brief invites researchers – including academics, journalists and analysts – to submit their own proposals for co-authored studies, literature reviews and analytical projects.

    Preprints to watch

    Carbon Brief’s pick of new papers still going through peer review

    • Regional reductions in aerosol emissions can “temporarily amplify” the likelihood of record-breaking heat events | Environmental Research: Climate
    • Analysis of Reddit posts suggests the Fridays for Future movement has created “wider awareness” of global warming by drawing attention to climate change and “climate actions” | npj climate action
    • Periods of simultaneous low wind and solar power generation, known as “renewable energy droughts”, will “intensify progressively” as the planet warms | Nature portfolio

    Noticeboard

    • 28-30 June: Seventh global conference on climate and sustainable development goal synergies, Bangkok, Thailand
    • 29 June-1 July: Exeter climate conference, Exeter, UK
    • 29 June-1 July: National Academy of Sciences hybrid workshop on seabed critical mineral resources, Irvine, US
    • 30 June: Submission deadline for abstracts for MedCLIVAR conference, scheduled for 21-25 September in Limassol, Cyprus 
    • 30 June: Application deadline for postdoctoral position in ice-ocean interactions at the Physics Laboratory of Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon | Salary: €3,071-4,714 per month. Location: Lyon, France
    • 30 June: Submissions open for abstracts for the pan-African conference on environment, climate change and health, scheduled for 21-24 October in Nairobi, Kenya 
    • 8 July: Application deadline for position as research officer in climate science and law at the Grantham Research Institute | Salary: £43,277-51,714. Location: London, UK
    • 10 July: Application deadline for position as associate or senior editor at Nature Water | Salary: Unknown. Location: Shanghai, Beijing or Milan

    Cited is researched and written by Cecilia Keating, Robert McSweeney, Ayesha Tandon, Daisy Dunne and Dr Giuliana Viglione.

    Please send tips, feedback and upcoming climate research to cited@carbonbrief.org

    This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cited email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

    The post Cited 23 June 2026: Project Cosmos launch | Science ‘under attack’ at Bonn | Emissions inequality appeared first on Carbon Brief.

    Cited 23 June 2026: Project Cosmos launch | Science ‘under attack’ at Bonn | Emissions inequality

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