Welcome to Carbon Brief’s Cropped. We handpick and explain the most important stories at the intersection of climate, land, food and nature over the past fortnight.
This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s fortnightly Cropped email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.
Key developments
Migratory species in peril
EXTINCTION THREAT: A new UN-backed report, the “State of the World’s Migratory Species” found that one in five of the species listed under the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) is “threatened with extinction”, with nearly half experiencing population declines. The report examined the status of nearly 1,200 species protected under the CMS, concluding: “The impacts of climate change are already being felt by many migratory species, and these impacts are expected to increase considerably over the coming decades, not just as a direct threat to species but also as an amplifier of other threats.” Conserving these species “is extremely difficult because they cross nations, continents, even hemispheres”, Dr Amanda Rodwald, the director of the Center for Avian Population Studies at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, told Grist.
A RAY OF HOPE: Several news outlets covered the report. Yale Environment 360 noted that the report “is the first comprehensive assessment” of migratory species. It added that “marine life is particularly at risk” due to overfishing, with 97% of marine migratory species “facing extinction”, including sharks, rays and sturgeons. According to Inside Climate News, “the numbers could be even more dire because the CMS treaty…covers only about a quarter of the world’s known migratory species”. But, it added, “the authors emphasise that further species declines and habitat destruction are not inevitable”, highlighting success stories, such as that of the humpback whale. Yale E360 quoted Inger Andersen, head of the UN Environment Programme, who said: “The global community has an opportunity to translate this latest science of the pressures facing migratory species into concrete conservation action.”
CARNIVORE CONSERVATION: The report was released on 12 February at the 14th Conference of the Parties to the CMS, being held this week in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The next day, the CMS signed a memorandum of understanding with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) that “formalise[d] a commitment for IUCN and CMS to work together to protect threatened African carnivores”, according to the IUCN. The organisation said that its partnership would “raise funds and facilitate frontline conservation action targeted at protecting and recovering” lions, cheetahs, leopards and African wild dogs. Dr Grethel Aguilar, director-general of the IUCN, highlighted that those four are “species that are vital to healthy ecosystems and on which many other species depend”.
Farmers’ protests across the EU
WAVE OF PROTESTS: Carbon Brief reported that farmers across the EU, including in Belgium, France, Germany and Greece, have taken to the streets in protest over the past weeks due to a “series of concerns, including competition from cheaper imports, rising costs of energy and fertiliser and environmental rules”. Carbon Brief analysed the main demands from farmer groups in seven EU countries and found that many – but not all – were related to climate change and biodiversity conservation. Several points of contention were related to policies that have not yet been implemented, such as the EU’s upcoming nature restoration law and a pending trade agreement with several South American countries. The EU is working on other climate and biodiversity regulations ahead of parliamentary elections in June this year.
COORDINATED CONCERNS: Truckers, beekeepers and foresters joined the farmers in protest in Poland, Euractiv reported. According to a Polish apple grower, these groups are opposed to impositions that would result from the European Green Deal as well as “the influx of low-quality Ukrainian food to Poland under the liberalised EU trade rules”. In an interview with the outlet, Jacek Zarzecki of the Federation of Agricultural Producers Union said that regulations aimed at reducing agricultural emissions and enhancing animal welfare were not sufficiently supporting farmers. Meanwhile, there have also been protests in India, with Al Jazeera reporting that Indian security forces fired tear gas and authorities suspended internet services in a bid to stop thousands of farmers marching on New Delhi. Their demands “include higher support, guaranteed prices for their produce, and forgiveness for loans, as well as a clutch of other concessions”, the outlet said.
REGULATION ROLLBACK: Earlier this month, protests were “brought to the doorstep of the European parliament” in Brussels as farmers pushed the body “to abandon its most demanding emissions targets”, the Times wrote. It reported that “Brussels has struggled to contain the fightback” against agricultural regulation and that, in response, the European Commission has decided to “scrap” a plan to reduce emissions of methane, nitrogen and other gases from agriculture by 30%. Bloomberg added that the EU has also abandoned its plan to reduce the use of pesticides by half by 2030 under farmers’ pressure. It quoted European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who said the regulation had become a “symbol of polarisation”. She added that a new proposal drafted with the input of more stakeholders “may be put forward”, Bloomberg wrote.
GENE-EDITED AFFAIRS: Meanwhile, Politico reported that the European parliament passed “a tight plenary vote” that would put gene-edited seeds – marketed as a way to reduce climate impacts on agriculture – on the market. The outlet said the patentable so-called “supercrops” could pave the way for half a dozen big suppliers to strengthen their market domination. Member states are currently “deadlocked” in negotiating the proposal, Politico added. Science explained that part of the controversy arises from whether gene-edited seeds will be protected intellectual property as “conventionally bred plants in Europe cannot be patented”.
Spotlight
New nature fund takes its first steps
On 9 February, the governing body of a “game-changing” new fund for biodiversity met for the first time in Washington DC. Carbon Brief unpacks the highlights and major decisions made at that meeting. (For more, see Carbon Brief’s detailed Q&A on progress since COP15.)
Conceived at the 2022 UN COP15 biodiversity summit in a last-minute compromise amid calls by many developing countries for a distinct fund, a landmark new nature fund is now on the verge of becoming real.
Meant to finance a tall order of conservation targets for this decade, the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Fund is housed under the Global Environment Facility (GEF), a multilateral fund with 186 member governments. The GEF is entrusted with supporting a wide range of global environmental action. At the GEF council’s 66th meeting this week, countries agreed to invest a cumulative $1.1bn in biodiversity, climate change, restoration and pollution control.
Dr Dawda Badgie, the elected chairperson of the GBF Fund council, who hails from the Gambia, said:
“These decisions can change peoples’ lives for years to come…We have to act collectively about the challenges we are facing. They do not spare anybody.”
Members from different countries met for the first time as the GBF Fund council to approve policies framing how multilateral finance for nature in this decade will flow. The GBF Fund’s initial work programme to lay out its funding agenda is expected in June this year and financing is to follow before the end of 2024.
Funding flows
Of the decisions approved in Washington DC, the most crucial was one on how the fund’s resources will be allocated. It empowers the GEF chief executive to approve projects up to $5m and calls for a mid-term review of all projects over $2m.
The council committed to prioritising 20% of its funds to support Indigenous and local community-led conservation projects, and at least 36% to small island states and least-developed countries.
According to the Earth Negotiations Bulletin (ENB), calls for a written policy on the participation of Indigenous peoples in deciding what these projects should look like were also taken on board by the GEF, which agreed to develop a draft methodology by June. “Projects should engage with Indigenous peoples and local communities as partners and co-designers rather than just beneficiaries,” said the International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity (IIFB).
Youth groups advocated for a similar, but additional, direct funding line for women and youth, ENB added. Council members pointed to sparse funding available to many countries and suggested that organising projects in regional clusters, such as the Amazon, would ensure funding would be meaningful and impactful.
The council also decided how projects under the fund will be designed and approved, with funding priorities guided by the Convention on Biological Diversity’s (CBD) Conference of the Parties, or COP.
The council also approved the fund’s budget and administrative costs, including World Bank levies – even though they are still being negotiated – and staffing decisions. The IIFB urged the council to recruit staff who have experience working with Indigenous communities.
Seed capital shortage
At the meeting, Spain’s secretary of state for the environment, Hugo Morán Fernández, announced a contribution of €10m to the GBF Fund, joining Canada, Germany, the UK and Japan in pledging seed capital to kickstart the fund.
However, the World Bank’s representative at the meeting said that of these countries’ total $219.2m in pledges, only $54.6m has actually been paid into the fund so far (by Germany and Spain). This, observers warned, brings the fund’s actual capital into question and sits in sharp contrast to the yawning $700bn biodiversity finance gap.
Dr David Cooper, acting CBD chief, said in a statement:
“If we’re honest, we need an order of magnitude more in the coming few years, if we are going to meet that COP request of…scaling up finance commensurate with the targets of the GBF.
“We need this frontloading. We need this support for actions on the ground right away if we are going to have any chance of achieving those ambitious targets by 2030.”
News and views
INDONESIAN ELECTION: “More than 100 million people” were expected to cast their votes in the Indonesian election today, according to the New York Times. It continued: “As one of the world’s biggest exporters of coal, nickel and palm oil, Indonesia has a large role to play in the climate change crisis.” The vote “is widely seen as a referendum on the legacy” of two-term president Joko Widodo, the newspaper added. Early results, or “quick counts”, after the polls closed showed a “commanding lead” for current defence minister Prabowo Subianto, who has “presented himself as an heir to [the] immensely popular sitting president”, the Associated Press reported.
STRIKE FOR SAFETY: A partial strike within Brazil’s environmental agencies is “threatening” the country’s climate goals, according to a news article in Nature. Since early January, staffers at several agencies have stopped their field visits, “where they conduct deforestation surveillance and help to shut down illegal mining operations”. Nature added that “if their demands aren’t met, they could soon turn up the heat on the government and stop working altogether”. The workers contend that they are overworked and underpaid and that their safety is at risk when they are out in the field. The country is already feeling the impacts of the strike, Nature reported: “Inspectors issued 93% fewer environmental fines in the Amazon during the first two weeks of January than in the same period last year.”
AVOCADO CONFLICT: The organisation Climate Rights International said in a press release that “the Biden administration should act on a call by US senators to work with the Mexican government to prevent avocados grown on illegally deforested lands from reaching US markets”. A 2023 Climate Rights International investigation pointed out that avocado exports to major markets such as the US and EU contribute to illegal deforestation, water theft, and “dire consequences for the rights of local residents” in Mexico. Indigenous leaders and residents in two central Mexican states defending their territories from avocados’ expansion have been victims of violence, attacks and murders over the past decade, the report added.
AGRARIAN COURTS: In December, Colombian president Gustavo Petro announced a new court system that would help resolve land ownership conflicts between peasant farmers, or campesinos, and large companies, Mongabay reported. The system will eventually encompass 70 agrarian courts, with the first five set to begin operating by 2 May. According to Mongabay, “peasant farmers have long struggled for recognition by the state”. It added that while some advocates of farmers’ rights welcomed the announcement, others have voiced concerns about the lack of specialisation of judges and the risk of not having Indigenous participation in implementing the court system.
MULTITUDE OF MANGROVES: Pakistan expanded its mangroves nearly threefold over the past 30 years, according to an analysis of satellite data, Mongabay reported. Mangroves covered 48,331 hectares in 1986 and grew to 143,930 hectares in 2020. The analysis attributed the expansion to government and NGO efforts to boost the conservation of mangroves through restoration, research and awareness-raising campaigns, Mongabay explained. The study also acknowledged the role of fisher communities in planting and protecting such ecosystems, as well as “massive tree-planting projects” carried out bynational and provincial governments since 2008.
Watch, read, listen
SALT SHOCKS: A long-read in Scroll.in examined how changes in the Indian monsoon are disrupting salt production, threatening the livelihoods of traditional saltmakers.
DELTA DECIMATED: Shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta – touted as a step towards climate and economic resilience – is “ultimately unsustainable”, the Diplomat wrote.
ANTARCTIC OBSERVATIONS: National Public Radio interviewed a team of scientists testing a drone that will help map the terrain in Antarctica.
CONSERVING CORALS: PBS News Hour explored how scientists are trying to conserve and preserve the remaining coral reefs in Florida.
New science
Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt
Communications Earth and Environment
A new attribution study revealed that marine heatwaves in the Arctic are being triggered by a combination of greenhouse-gas-induced warming and “abrupt” melting of sea ice. The research found that the most intense Arctic marine heatwave on record, which occurred in 2020, had temperatures up to 4C higher than normal and lasted for 103 days, “would be exceptionally unlikely in the absence of greenhouse gas forcing in terms of both intensity and duration”. According to the paper, marine heatwaves in the Arctic can impact fish stocks and marine food chains, thus affecting Indigenous communities and fisheries. The study concluded that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, “moderate marine heatwaves in the Arctic will very likely persistently reoccur”.
Widespread temporal and spatial variability in net ecosystem productivity under climate change
One Earth
A new study found that future net ecosystem productivity – the difference between the amount of carbon taken out of the air through photosynthesis and the amount respired by plants – is more variable than previously thought. Using a combination of data and models, researchers explored how ecosystem productivity might vary in space and time under different emissions scenarios. They found that under a “very low” emissions scenario, carbon storage in the Amazon is “projected to decline considerably” by 2100. Under higher emissions scenarios, carbon storage “will likely increase” due to the CO2 fertilisation effect, the study said – although it did not take into account disturbances such as drought and fire. The result, the researchers wrote, “highlight[s] the need for effective actions to maintain [the Amazon’s] carbon storage capacity under climate change”.
Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over northern Mexico
Journal of Climate
The frequency of extreme rainfall events in northern Mexico would likely double by the end of the century under a scenario of very high emissions, “exacerbating the flood risk for vulnerable communities”, according to new research. The study found that by the end of the century, average and extreme rainfall would decrease west of the Sierra Madre highlands and increase to the east, with “implications for the agricultural sector, economy and infrastructure”. The region is home to 32 million people, yet, the study says, few studies have analysed future trends in mean or extreme rainfall there.
In the diary
- 11-17 February: 14th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Migratory Species of Wild Animals | Samarkand, Uzbekistan
- 26-29 February: World Trade Organization ministerial conference | Abu Dhabi
- 26 February-1 March: Sixth session of the UN environment assembly | Nairobi
Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz. Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org
The post Cropped 14 February 2024: Nature fund gets real; Migratory species in peril; EU rolls back regulations appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Steven Stone is acting director of the United Nations Environment Programme’s Office of Science
In 1934, American economist Simon Kuznets presented a paper to Congress advocating for a new way of measuring economic performance.
The United States was reeling from the Great Depression, and Kuznets – a future Novel prize winner – wanted to gauge just how badly the country’s economy had been dented.
His metric, which would come to be known as gross domestic product (GDP), was a breakthrough. But as pioneering as it was, Kuznets saw its limitations.
“The welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of national income,” he wrote in the 1934 paper.
Some nine decades on, we have largely forgotten that message. GDP has become a barometer of economic progress, a kind of one-number-that-rules-them-all upon which national policies turn and governments rise and fall.
With the climate crisis deepening by the day – as evidenced by the heatwaves and wildfires now searing Europe – our attachment to GDP is looking like a problem.
In a single-minded pursuit of GDP growth, humanity is inadvertently feeding several environmental crises that, over the long run, threaten to make most of us poorer, sicker and more miserable. Climate change alone could slice 20 per cent off global GDP by 2100 – a staggering number.
Clear-cutting boosts GDP not wealth
We need to broaden our vision and definition of economic success before it’s too late.
I grew up in the 1970s and 80s surrounded by the mixed hardwood forests of the northeastern United States. For me, the trees were a refuge, a place to run, discover and savor the history and mystery of the land and its people.
Those experiences with my friends were more important than the amount of money in my pocket. And they led to a realization early on in my career as an economist: that wealth is about more than just income.
This is one of GDP’s most significant oversights.
With every forest we clear cut and every ounce of fossil fuel we burn, GDP rises. But through those actions, we are whittling away at the natural world, which supplies us with food, water, medicine, clean air and countless other essentials.
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Renewables developers need reliable electricity infrastructure and stable policies to help the region meet climate goals and surging demand for power
By focusing only on GDP, we’re ignoring what’s happening to the natural assets on which our prosperity ultimately depends. It’s like we’re driving a car and only looking at the speedometer, not the energy remaining in the battery.
That is the difference between measuring income versus measuring wealth.
The answer to this dilemma lies in looking beyond GDP. We must start considering a broader range of indicators when making policy decisions.
From an environmental perspective, that means measuring and valuing natural assets like forests, water, soil, biodiversity and clean air. By assigning a value to nature, decision-makers can better understand the economic consequences of, say, strip-mining a mountain top or letting plastic waste overwhelm a river.
There is still some debate over how exactly to do this kind of natural capital accounting. But that’s not a reason to dismiss it, as many have done. It took years of refinement to end up with the GDP formula we have today.
Costa Rica’s example
The idea of looking beyond GDP isn’t only a theoretical debate. Countries and communities around the world have started to make economic decisions based on their natural assets. A prime example is Costa Rica, a biodiversity hotspot where a years-long effort to conserve land and seascapes has led to a boom in tourism. That in part helped elevate the country into the club of high-income nations.
This kind of environmentally focused economic decision making can pay huge dividends. By stabilizing the climate, ending pollution and halting the loss of the natural world, humanity could save millions of lives a year and create US$20 trillion in economic benefits annually by 2070, found the Global Environment Outlook 7, a 2025 report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report was funded by the European Union among others.
I began my career as an economist before moving to UNEP, which focuses on solving the world’s thorniest environmental problems. During that time, I’ve come to appreciate that “wealth” means more than simply “income.” True prosperity means being able to provide for ourselves now and into the future. Anything short of that is an empty kind of affluence – and ultimately doomed to be short-lived.
As deadly heat blankets our cities, species slip into extinction and the planet struggles with rising toxicity and pollution, I am convinced that we can do better at measuring what matters. And that means updating and expanding how we measure economic progress.
The post As fires burn and temperatures soar, it’s time to imagine a world beyond GDP appeared first on Climate Home News.
As fires burn and temperatures soar, it’s time to imagine a world beyond GDP
Amira Odeh Quiñones is a hydrologist and Caribbean organiser for the 350.org climate campaign group
El Niño, likely to be one of the strongest in modern history, has arrived on Caribbean shores.
Drought is slowly creeping up on our islands. But unlike the fiery wildfires ravaging parts of Europe, there’s no smoke signalling the damage being done, no sirens to warn of the danger. Only announcements from public health officials to stay indoors and remain hydrated — as if outdoor workers and farming communities have the luxury to heed such advice.
During El Niño, strong atmospheric winds alter rain patterns and trap heat across the Caribbean. But while we have experienced El Niño many times before, it has become very visible in recent years how climate change is making this natural phenomenon worse.
Across the Greater Antilles, temperatures are soaring past 38°C (100°F), with real-feel indexes reaching a gruelling 43°C in parts of Puerto Rico where I live. Cuba has it worse. Widespread power outages mean that methods for cooling down are unavailable for most of the day, leaving millions of vulnerable people at risk of heat stroke when temperatures hit 38°C.
Santa Marta coalition tested as co-chair Colombia turns back to fossil fuels
During the last strong drought a decade ago, I had water only two days a week in my home. Today, there are many families whose taps are about to run completely dry. Water authorities have already begun strict rationing in some municipalities, with more on the list scheduled for rationing if conditions don’t change.
Water rationing is far more than an inconvenience; it is an immediate health risk. This means thousands of people need to constantly haul heavy buckets up flights of stairs just so they could bathe, cook, stay hydrated – the basics of survival.
Heat causes health problems
Puerto Rico is home to roughly 300,000 elderly residents. Many live alone, isolated and without support. They risk severe physical injury when carrying heavy water containers, and are wont to suffer from silent heat exhaustion in unventilated rooms.
Furthermore, when water shortages force residents to store water in open household containers, it inadvertently creates breeding grounds for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Paired with scorching temperatures that tend to shorten the mosquito breeding cycle, the region is facing explosive outbreaks of dengue fever that endanger our most vulnerable: children and the elderly.
The economic fallout is equally devastating. Dry fields mean millions of dollars in lost crops, forcing small agricultural businesses to collapse, needing urgent government relief to survive. Extreme fuel shortages have already paralyzed Cuba’s agricultural sector, cutting food output by 60% – the El Niño dry spell threatens to decimate it.
At sea, warmer ocean waters fuel massive influxes of sargassum seaweed. Rotting sargassum chokes our beaches, destroying the local tourism industry that so many working families rely on. Tangled seaweed also damages nets and boat engines, slashing fish catches and driving up equipment costs for local fishers.
In the south of Puerto Rico, the coastal town of La Parguera is currently witnessing a historic amount of sargassum on its shores. This has halted most of the boating activity in the area, which is the seaside town’s main tourist draw and economic driver.
All over the Caribbean, from town halls to local group gatherings, the story I hear is always the same: constant headaches, lost work hours, failing health, and a sense that quality of life is silently being stolen. The compounding effects of heatwaves, drought, and marine destruction are exhausting our people, our islands.
Climate change to blame
Climate change makes each El Niño year hotter and more damaging. Higher baseline global temperatures increase the energy and moisture available for extreme weather. Latest projections show that El Niño may push the monthly global average temperature past 2°C of warming for the first time in early 2027. In the Caribbean islands, that will not just be breaking records – it’ll be breaking lives.
Recently, I had the opportunity to share a panel with climate scientists behind what is known as the field of “attribution science” – or the science that compares today’s climate conditions to what the Earth’s climate would be like without human activity, particularly burning fossil fuels. They’re unequivocal: it’s no longer a question of whether extreme weather is caused by climate change, it’s just a question of how much.
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Renewables developers need reliable electricity infrastructure and stable policies to help the region meet climate goals and surging demand for power -
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Attribution science recently got a boost from the U.S.’ top scientific advisory body. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recognized that researchers’ methods have advanced considerably in recent years, resulting in better assessments on how much extreme weather can be attributed to human-caused climate change. It noted that attribution findings could be relevant in some types of legal cases, including those seeking damages from oil companies for climate impacts.
This crisis, which is already taking a heavy toll on our communities’ survival, needs real, urgent, and structural action that goes beyond aid. With similar droughts now gripping parts of Asia and Africa, we’re falling into the familiar narrative of treating the looming humanitarian crisis as if no one was to blame, as if it is being caused solely by a natural phenomenon we can’t control.
It’s not. The world was already on fire before its regular visitor, El Niño, came. While we need humanitarian action, we need climate action too, in order to permanently put out the flames.
The post When taps run dry in the Caribbean, it’s not enough to blame El Niño appeared first on Climate Home News.
When taps run dry in the Caribbean, it’s not enough to blame El Niño
China has released a five-year plan dedicated to addressing climate change.
The 15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change is the latest in a series to outline in-depth climate and energy targets for the 2026-2030 period.
These include five-year plans for “building a Beautiful China”, developing a “new-type energy system” and developing renewable energy.
There are also separate “action plans” for the 2026-2030 period, such as for peaking carbon emissions.
China has pledged to peak its emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.
The new plan does not include any major new targets, instead consolidating and reaffirming existing policies.
Nevertheless, it includes significant signals on key policy areas, such as non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance and carbon markets.
Below, Carbon Brief examines some of the notable elements in the latest five-year plan and what it reveals about China’s policy direction through to 2030.
What does the climate plan cover?
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released the plan in late July, in unison with 18 other government departments. These include the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency, and the National Energy Administration.
The document covers a range of topics, including CO2 emissions, other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs), carbon markets, carbon footprints, climate adaptation and international cooperation on climate change.
For the first time at the five-year plan level, the plan creates a comprehensive target system covering all areas of climate policy, say officials in a MEE Q&A.
They describe it as “the main policy instrument” for advancing China’s climate action during 2026-2030.
China rarely issues high-level multi-year policies dedicated to “responding to climate change”. In 2014, the NDRC published a plan on the topic running through to 2020, but this was not linked to a five-year plan period.
Qin Yan, principal analyst at ClearBlue Markets, tells Carbon Brief that the plan shows that China’s climate governance has reached “an unprecedented strategic level”.
She adds that the plan creates an “all-encompassing target system” to support China’s Paris Agreement climate pledges for 2030 and 2035.
In its 2030 pledge, China aimed to peak emissions “before 2030” and reduce carbon intensity – its emissions per unit of GDP – by more than 65% from 2005 levels.
Last year, president Xi Jinping personally announced China’s 2035 pledge to cut China’s greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better”.
The five-year plan marks a new phase in China’s climate policy, according to researchers at CIB Research, an economic research body affiliated with the Industrial Bank, whose largest shareholder is the Fujian provincial government.
Their analysis adds that the plan represents a broad effort to strengthen China’s climate-governance system, implementation mechanisms and underlying capacity.
Nevertheless, several headline targets and policies in the document simply reiterate already established plans.
These include:
- Cutting carbon intensity by 17% across the five years
- Reducing carbon intensity per product in industries under China’s carbon market by 3%
- Substituting fossil fuels with renewables
- Strengthening climate adaptation
- Supporting the “free flow” of cleantech
What does the plan say about non-CO2 GHGs?
The plan also goes into detail on China’s approach to non-CO2 GHGs. This includes reaffirming a target of an emissions “reduction capacity” from these gases totalling 30m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, although the baseline is unclear.
The target previously appeared in the overarching five-year plan, as well as the plan for building a “Beautiful China”.
The goal refers to emissions reductions, which can be realised through implementing current non-CO2 emissions reduction policies and projects, says Chen Meian, programme director and senior analyst at the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP).
She adds that it is “relatively achievable”, with sources including increasing the number of coal-mine methane utilisation projects.
She points to an MEE explanatory note for a draft methodology under the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme, China’s voluntary carbon-credit market. Chen says the note suggests that projects using ventilation air methane and coal-mine methane with concentrations below 8% alone could deliver around 20MtCO2e of reduction by 2030.
The note states that, currently, such projects are estimated to be able to “generate annual emission reductions of approximately 4.5MtCO2e”.
In addition, Chen says, measures targeting industrial nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could help make up the remainder needed to meet the target.
According to iGDP analysis of biennial reports submitted by China to the UNFCCC, China emitted around 14,000MtCO2e of GHGs in 2021, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
Non-CO2 GHGs accounted for around 2,700MtCO2e, or 19%, of the total, the majority of which was methane, as shown in the figure below.
China’s plans to curb these super-pollutants in the five-year period include coal-mine methane utilisation projects, end-of-pipe destruction technologies for HFCs and guidance on the use of catalysts to reduce N2O emissions.
The plan also calls for the recovery and replacement of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in power equipment.
For Chen, the plan’s focus on SF6 control is particularly noteworthy. She says the gas is “finally receiving policy attention” and that proactive action is “timely and will help avoid future emissions growth” as China’s power system expands.
What does the plan say about global climate governance?
One of the plan’s clearest objectives for international cooperation is for China to play a more active role in global climate governance.
By 2030, it says China should markedly increase its “influence, guiding power, shaping power and moral appeal” in this area.
It says China’s climate action could also feed into the Global Governance Initiative, a policy initiative aimed at reforming the global governance system.
China will also aim to “build a new narrative on climate governance”, it adds.
Prof Thomas Hale, a professor in public policy at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government, writes on LinkedIn that the plan “marks a major rhetorical shift” towards China being increasingly willing to “lead and shape” global climate action.
Another clear focal point for international cooperation is in carbon markets.
The plan calls for China to expand the global influence of its carbon market, such as through international rule-setting, cooperation on standards and by hosting the China Carbon Market Conference.
Qin says China’s more active role in global carbon pricing is already evident in the launch of the open coalition on compliance carbon markets with the EU and Brazil. This coalition is expected to adopt a work plan at the China Carbon Market Conference in September.
Qin also notes that China “could become the world’s largest [carbon] offset buyer” as its energy transition progresses.
The country would, therefore, “benefit from helping shape global rules under the Article 6 framework [for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement]”, she adds.
Related
Interview: Dr Sun Yixian on his new database tracking Chinese climate ‘leadership’
Q&A: What do China’s provincial five-year plans say about climate and energy?
Analysis: China’s new carbon metric leaves Germany-sized gap in its emissions
Q&A: China’s leadership calls for ‘strict control’ of fossil fuels
The post Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change? appeared first on Carbon Brief.
Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change?
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Climate Change2 years ago
Bill Discounting Climate Change in Florida’s Energy Policy Awaits DeSantis’ Approval
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Renewable Energy10 months agoSending Progressive Philanthropist George Soros to Prison?
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Greenhouse Gases1 year ago
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Carbon Footprint2 years agoUS SEC’s Climate Disclosure Rules Spur Renewed Interest in Carbon Credits