BHP Group delivered a strong first-half performance for FY26, confirming a major shift in global commodity markets. The world’s largest miner posted underlying attributable profit of $6.2 billion, up 22% year over year and broadly in line with forecasts. More importantly, copper has now become the company’s dominant earnings driver.
For the first time in its history, copper contributed 51% of BHP’s underlying EBITDA. This milestone reflects both higher production and stronger prices. It also signals that the long-anticipated structural tightness in copper markets is beginning to materialize.
CEO Mike Henry emphasized that BHP had positioned itself early for this moment. Over the past four years, the company lifted copper production by roughly 30%. That expansion now aligns with rising global demand tied to electrification, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure.

Copper Delivers Record Earnings as Prices Rise
Copper earnings jumped in the first half. The division’s underlying EBITDA rose 59% to $8 billion. Higher prices, up about a third, helped drive the gain. Margins topped 60%, showing strong operations and favorable market conditions.
Strong output from Escondida in Chile, along with solid contributions from South Australia, boosted BHP’s results. As a result, the company raised its FY26 copper production guidance to 1.9–2.0 million tonnes. While some competitors lowered their forecasts, BHP went the other way, showing confidence in its operations.

At the same time, better cost management improved profits. Unit costs dropped across major copper assets, helping cash flow while prices stayed high. The company’s internal operating system also kept operations running efficiently and productively.
Meanwhile, iron ore earnings edged higher but showed slower momentum. Demand from Chinese steel exports and manufacturing offset weakness in the country’s property sector. However, China’s broader growth has plateaued. That shift explains why copper, rather than iron ore, now anchors BHP’s earnings profile.
Growth Pipeline Expands Beyond Copper
Copper is driving earnings now, but BHP is also looking at long-term growth. The Jansen Stage 1 potash project is on track to start production by mid-2027. Costs were revised up to $8.4 billion. Once fully operational, each stage could generate about $1 billion in annual EBITDA.
BHP also has copper growth options in Chile, Argentina, Arizona, and South Australia. The company aims to reach around 2.5 million tonnes of copper-equivalent production per year by the mid-2030s. Growth is expected to stay steady through 2035.
Strategic moves are helping BHP’s position. Recent deals could free over $6 billion. This gives the company flexibility to invest in high-return copper projects.

Copper Market Turns Tighter Heading into 2026
The wider market also supports a positive outlook for copper. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) says global mine supply growth slowed more than expected. Mine production is expected to rise only slightly in 2025. Refined production may grow very slowly, only at 0.9% in 2026, because of concentrate shortages.

- As a result, the market, which had a surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025, could swing to a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026. This is a big change from earlier forecasts that expected a surplus.
At the same time, demand keeps rising. Global refined copper usage could grow about 2% in 2026, reaching nearly 29 million tonnes. Asia continues to drive growth, even though Chinese consumption has slowed. Renewable energy, electric vehicles, grid upgrades, urbanization, and digital infrastructure all support long-term copper demand.

Copper Prices to Hold Above $12,000?
LME copper prices have fluctuated in early 2026. Prices fell from €13,327 per tonne on February 11 to €12,757 per tonne on February 16, showing short-term volatility. COMEX spot prices also dipped to $5.7710 per pound on February 12, down 3% daily but still up over 25% year-over-year. LME stocks rose slightly to 211,850 tonnes, signaling some inventory replenishment.

J.P. Morgan forecasts an average of $12,075 per tonne in 2026. Prices could reach $12,500/tonne in the second quarter. Tight inventories and supply disruptions make the first half of the year particularly bullish.
Data centers are adding to demand. J.P. Morgan says copper used in data center installations could hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026, up 110,000 tonnes from this year. While still a small part of global demand, it adds pressure to an already tight market.
Higher prices could push some buyers toward aluminum. However, analysts warn that substitution is slow. It won’t quickly ease copper shortages.
- CLICK HERE FOR: LIVE COPPER PRICES
BHP’s Strategic Advantage in a Structural Shift
For BHP, these trends back its long-term plan. Copper now makes up more than half of group earnings. The company increased production ahead of the market tightening. If prices stay above $12,000, margins could improve further.
Short-term volatility may continue. Slower growth in China or a weaker global economy could push prices down. On the other hand, mine disruptions or higher AI-related demand could push prices up.
Copper is vital for the energy transition. Electrification, decarbonization, and digitalization all need large amounts of the metal. With a projected deficit in 2026 and limited supply growth, the market fundamentals remain strong.
BHP’s results show more than a strong half-year. They highlight a bigger shift in commodities, where copper increasingly drives industrial growth and the clean energy transition.
The post Copper Drives BHP’s $6.2B Profit Surge in FY26 Half-Year Results appeared first on Carbon Credits.
Carbon Footprint
Insetting vs Offsetting: Which Actually Counts Toward Your Scope 3 Targets
The accounting differences that decide whether your nature investment shows up in inventory, in BVCM, or nowhere at all.
The question reaches a procurement team about three weeks before the next sustainability committee meeting. Someone has read about insetting. Someone else has just signed off on an offset purchase. The CSO wants to know if the two are interchangeable. The answer is no, and the GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard is the reason why.
This article walks through what each term means at audit-grade specificity, what the standards actually say about how each gets counted, and how to decide which tool fits which target. The insetting vs offsetting question is one of the most-searched in corporate climate strategy, and one of the most poorly answered. By the end of this piece, you should be able to brief a committee on the difference without notes.
The two definitions, in plain English
Offsetting means buying carbon credits generated outside your value chain and retiring them against your residual emissions. The reduction happens somewhere else, financed by you, and the credit is the receipt.
Insetting means investing in emission reductions or removals inside your own value chain, typically with suppliers, where the reduction is directly linked to the products and services you buy. The reduction happens inside the boundary of your Scope 3 inventory, and the accounting treatment is fundamentally different.
The shorthand from the University of Oxford’s Nature-based Insetting Initiative is useful: insetting is what you do with the supply chain you have; offsetting is what you do with the supply chain you do not have.
What the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard actually says
The GHG Protocol Land Sector and Removals Standard, finalised in 2024 after a multi-year pilot, sets the rules for how land-based emission reductions and removals enter corporate inventories. The Standard distinguishes between inventory accounting (Scope 1, 2, and 3) and project or intervention accounting (a separate methodology for crediting).
For insetting, the practical implication is that supplier-level interventions, when properly measured and attributed, can reduce your Scope 3 category 1 (purchased goods and services) emissions in your inventory. The reduction is not a credit retired against the inventory; it is a lower inventory number, period.
For offsetting, the credit is retired separately. It can be reported as a contribution toward a net-zero claim under the SBTi Beyond Value Chain Mitigation framework or as part of a VCMI Carbon Integrity claim, but it does not lower the inventory number.
A practical consequence: if your Science Based Target requires a 50% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030, insetting moves you toward the target. Offsetting does not. This single point of difference reshapes the procurement decision.
When insetting counts toward Scope 3 (and when it does not)
Insetting counts toward Scope 3 only when several conditions are met:
- The intervention must occur with an entity in your value chain.
- The emissions reduction or removal must be measured against a defensible baseline.
- The reduction must be attributed to your share of that supplier’s output, not double-counted with other buyers.
- It must follow the inventory accounting rules in the GHG Protocol Land Sector Standard, not the project accounting rules used to generate credits.
The most common failure mode is double counting. If your supplier sells the same reduction as a credit on the voluntary market and also reports it to you as a Scope 3 reduction, the math breaks. The Standard requires you to address this risk, typically by purchasing and retiring the supplier-issued credit as part of your inventory or by contractual provisions that prevent the supplier from selling the reduction twice.
When insetting does not count toward Scope 3: when the intervention sits with a supplier you do not buy from, when the baseline is not defensible, when the attribution is unclear, or when the documentation does not survive audit. Those cases default to Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, which is still useful but operates on a different ledger.
The procurement and supplier engagement question
Insetting is harder than offsetting. That is the unfashionable truth most buyers eventually confront. Offsetting is a transaction; insetting is a relationship.
To run an insetting program, you need supplier mapping precise enough to know which farms or facilities sit at which Scope 3 boundary. You need an engagement model that gets suppliers to participate, which usually requires multi-year commitments and shared economics. You need an MRV architecture that measures the right things and produces audit-ready documentation. And you need a contractual structure that prevents double counting and protects both sides.
The trade-off you receive in return is significant. Reductions count against your inventory rather than your residual. Supplier relationships deepen, which protects sourcing continuity. Yield and quality improvements often follow regenerative interventions, which reduces your input cost over time. And the regulatory file, under CSRD, CSDDD, EUDR, and the SBTi FLAG Guidance, is materially stronger.
Choosing the right tool for the right target
A practical decision rule. If your target is a science-based Scope 3 reduction and you operate in a FLAG sector or source FLAG commodities, insetting is the structurally correct tool. If your target is a net-zero claim that includes neutralising hard-to-abate residual emissions outside your value chain, BVCM via high-integrity offsets is the structurally correct tool. Most companies with material Scope 3 exposure need both, in different proportions, sequenced over time.
The sequencing matters. Insetting takes longer to stand up but produces a permanent reduction in the inventory. Offsetting can be transacted faster but does not change the inventory and now sits under tighter claim restrictions. Treat them as complementary tools with different jobs, not as substitutes. The Accountability Framework Initiative and the IUCN Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions both provide useful guardrails for the insetting side, with biodiversity, human rights, and benefit-sharing requirements that go beyond carbon math.
If you are mapping a Scope 3 reduction roadmap and need to scope which interventions count toward your inventory versus which sit in Beyond Value Chain Mitigation, the carbon and sustainability experts at Carbon Credit Capital can help you structure a nature-based supply chain investment program that fits your FLAG exposure, your target architecture, and your audit horizon. Schedule a consultation.
Carbon Footprint
Net zero needs nature: a carbon credit guide
Net zero is often described as a balancing act: cut what you can, account for the rest, and reach zero on the ledger. That framing is useful, but it leaves something out. It treats every tonne of carbon as interchangeable and every route to zero as equally sound, while the science tells a more specific story.
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Carbon Footprint
Deforestation in Malawi: causes and solutions
Malawi has lost a striking share of its forests over the past three decades. Woodlands that once covered well over a third of the country now cover less than a quarter, and the pressure on what remains is increasing. Behind those figures sit two practical questions: what is driving the loss, and what reverses it?
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